Kuzul

San Francisco Giants Manager Bruce Bochy said a bunch of castoffs and misfits won the World Series in 2010. After enormously disappointing seasons in 2009 and 2010, the Cubs definitely fall in the category of misfits. 

How did a team that seemed to be the odds on favorite to advance to the World Series in 2008 drop so far so fast?

The Cubs won 98 games during the 2008 season but were swept out of the playoffs by the Dodgers. The Dodger sweep brought the Cubs postseason losing streak to nine games, dating all the way back to the infamous Steve Bartman game in the 2003 National League Championship Series. 

They entered the 2009 and 2010 seasons with high expectations and proceeded to sleepwalk through the schedule. Now, entering the 2011 season, most fans will probably see the Cubs and their $140 million plus team as a roster full of overpaid underachievers.

Yes, the Cubs have a large collection of vastly overpaid players including Alfonso Soriano ($18 million), Aramis Ramirez ($15.75 million), Carlos Silva ($11.5 million), Kosuke Fukudome ($13.5 million), and Carlos Zambrano ($17.875 million).

Sure, the Cubs and their fans want these contracts off the books, but that does not mean they won’t contend for the National League Central in 2011.

Maybe I am dreaming but I see a lot of potential for the Cubs in 2011.

The hiring of Mike Quade as the new manager provides reason for optimism after he led the Cubs to a 24-13 record in the last 37 games of 2010. Quade was a career minor league manager that is getting his first shot to manage at the big league level. He is sure to be highly motivated to get the Cubs back into postseason contention. 

The starting pitching staff should be much improved.

The acquisition of Matt Garza should pay immediate dividends. Garza is battle tested after three years in the American League East. During his tenure with the Rays, he posted a sub 4.00 ERA while helping them to division titles in 2008 and 2010. 

Ryan Dempster can generally be counted on to post 200 innings and a sub 4.00 ERA. On his good days, he has the stuff to match up with any pitcher in the league. 

Carlos Zambrano went 8-0 in 11 starts with an outstanding 1.40 ERA following his suspension in 2010. The question is whether he can keep his emotions in check and build on the outstanding stretch he had at the end of 2010.

The forth and fifth spots in the rotation are clearly question marks but have potential.

Randy Wells pitched well in his first full season in 2009, posting a 3.05 ERA even though he regressed last season with a 4.26 ERA. Wells recently admitted that, as he put it, “I got too big for my britches”. Wells obviously realizes he lacked the focus and dedication to be successful in 2010. If he can get back to his 2009 form he should be one of the better number four starters in the National League. 

The fifth spot should fall to Carlos Silva with the trade of Tom Gorzelanny to the Nationals. Silva pitched well the first half of 2010, winning his first 8 decisions. He fell off dramatically in the second battling elbow and shoulder injuries. 

The back end of the bullpen figures to be very good with Kerry Wood likely setting up Carlos Marmol. Marmol was electric, posting 38 saves in 43 chances for a team that only won 75 games last season. Marmol’s 138 strikeouts in only 77 2/3 innings are nearly impossible to comprehend. 

The Cubs hitting figures to be a question mark.

Stralin Castro and Tyler Colvin played well as rookies in 2010 and should be able to continue their development in 2011.

Castro hit .300 as the youngest everyday player in the National League, and Colvin hit a respectable 20 Home Runs in only 358 at bats before missing the last two weeks of the season.

Geovany Soto has been inconsistent since his Rookie of the Year season in 2008. He underwent shoulder surgery in September and expects to be 100% for spring training. In 2010, he showed signs of getting back to his 2008 form, posting an OPS of .890 and an OBP of .393 in 105 games

Carlos Pena has been feast or famine the past couple of seasons. Yes, he had 28 homers and 84 RBI in 2010. But, he had a horrible batting average of .199. Even more alarming is his steady drop in OPS from 1.037 in 2007 to .732 in 2010. 

Blake DeWitt at second base appears to be a soft spot. The Cubs will likely try to upgrade DeWitt if they are given the chance. Going into the season, he will likely split time with Darwin Barney or Jeff Baker with the hot hand likely earning playing time.

Aramis Ramirez has battled injuries the past two seasons, limiting him to a total of only 206 games. He posted 25 homers and 83 RBI in 124 games in 2010. But like Pena saw an alarming drop in his OBP and OPS. His OBP dropped from .389 to .294, and his OPS dropped from .905 to .745. If Ramirez can get back to his pre-2009 form, he would be a major boost for the Cubs in 2011. 

Marlon Byrd was a pleasant surprise in 2010, scoring 84 runs and posting a .775 OPS. If he can come close to duplicating his 2010 numbers, he would provide a major boost.

Alfonso Soriano has been an erratic underachiever during his time with the Cubs. At 35 years of age, he definitely looks to have his best years behind him. At this point in his career, anything beyond 25 homers and 80 RBIs would probably be considered a surprise.

Kosuke Fukedome will likely start the 2011 season as the fourth outfielder. It is no secret the Cubs have been shopping him this offseason. A rumored contract swap with the Giants for the underperforming Aaron Rowand never materialized in December. The Cubs would likely have to eat a large portion of his $13.5 million due for 2011 to make any deal happen.

Like all teams, the Cubs have question marks going into the 2011 season. In a tough National League Central, they are going to have to turn much of their potential into performance if they are going to compete for a postseason berth in 2011.

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With the acquisition of Zack Greinke, the Milwaukee Brewers are telling the rest of the National League they are a team to be reckoned with in 2011.

With Prince Fielder being a free agent after the 2011 season, the team could look a lot different in 2012. So why not go for it?

Outside of the Bronx, Boston and now seemingly Philadelphia, getting a chance to assemble a team to make a serious run does not happen every year. Especially in Milwaukee where the Brewers have been to the postseason only once since their World Series appearance in 1982.

The Brewers have assembled a modern day version of Harvey’s Wallbangers with Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Casey McGehee, Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks. But current baseball economics will probably make this the last season to have this core of five hitters together.

The animosity between Fielder and the Brewers was well publicized when the Brewers signed Ryan Braun to a long term extension in 2008 after denying Fielder an extension. When Fielder hits the free agent market following the 2011 season, his agent Scott Boras figures to be looking for a deal in the Ryan Howard range. Howard signed a five year $125 million extension in April of 2010 and Fielder is four-and-a-half years younger than Howard.

The Brewers will almost certainly not pay that type of money, and Fielder almost assuredly will not be offering a “hometown discount.”

Rickie Weeks could also walk after the 2011 season.

Weeks had a breakout season in 2010 with 29 homers and 83 RBI. He will be a free-agent after the 2011 season and will certainly command a big raise over the $2.75 million he earned in 2010. If he can come close to repeating his 2010 production, it would not be a stretch to see Weeks get a deal in the range of the five years and $60 million extension reportedly being offer to Dan Uggla who is two-and-a-half years older then Weeks.

The starting pitching staff is arguably the best ever assembled by the Brewers.

The addition of Greinke definitely gives them the potential to be force in 2011. The big question is how effective will they be?  At 27, Greinke will be entering his prime years very motivated. There is no argument he has number one stuff. But he has to prove he has the mental makeup to be a consistent number one starter for a playoff caliber team.

Yovani Gallardo should feel less pressure in 2011 by not having to be the number one. He has had a nice start to his career posting a sub 3.70 ERA in his first 500 career innings and at just 25 years old going into 2011 still looks to have upside.

Shaun Marcum looks to be fully recovered after missing 2009 with Tommy John surgery. He quietly put together two very respectable years in Toronto in 2008 and 2010. His combined ERA in those two years was under 3.65 and his WHIP was under 1.20. That is very impressive when you consider the number of games the Blue Jays play against the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees If he adjusts to the National League he could be a huge addition to the Brewers rotation.

Randy Wolf  should be able to log 30 starts and 200 innings. If he can keep his ERA around 4.00 and get decent run support he should be in the range of the 13 wins he posted in 2010.

Chris Narveson looks to have the inside track for the fifth spot in the rotation. He was homer prone in 2010 allowing 21 in 167.2 innings. If he can keep the homers down in 2011 he has the potential to be decent number five starter.

The key for the Brewers is to find a way to get to the playoffs in a National League Central that has a resurgent Reds team, an always dangerous Cardinals team, a Cubs team that will spend year in and year out to try to contend.

With Greinke at the top of the rotation, and a lineup that has the potential to score runs off of anybody, the Brewers are definitely a team you would not want to see in a short series in the 2011 postseason.

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The Jayson Werth signing has been bothering me since it was announced.

I understand the Nationals are looking forward, and with the loss of Stephen Strasburg for 2011, they feel they need a big name to energize the fan base. They realize a great ballpark alone will not draw forever. When Nationals Park opened in 2008, the attendance was 29,000 per game. Since then, it has dropped to about 22,500 per game.

The Nationals’ front office and ownership realize that realistically, Bryce Harper has to be at least a couple of years and probably more away from contributing at the big league level. And although Stephen Strasburg seems to progressing with his rehab on schedule, the organization has to be holding its collective breath awaiting his anticipated return in 2012.

But committing a seven year, $126 million deal to a player who has played over 135 games only twice in his career? Really? And Werth is soon to be 32, folks. Not 22, but 32. Think about that. Werth has only had more than 420 at bats in a season twice in his career.

Werth was a very productive player the past two years in a loaded Phillies lineup. He spent the greater part of 2010 hitting fifth behind Ryan Howard. Everybody agrees Ryan Zimmerman is a very good player on the upside of his career, but Zimmerman and Werth cannot do it alone for the Nationals. Having Nyjer Morgan and Ian Desmond in the lineup is just not as intimidating to opposing pitchers as seeing a lineup with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.

There should definitely be more opportunities to pitch around Werth and make him prove he can be patient in a less potent lineup. His average of 153 strikeouts the last two seasons is definitely reason for concern.

He will definitely have much more pressure to provide protection for teammates rather then receiving protection from guys like Howard and Ibanez. In short, he, along with Zimmerman, will be “the guys”. It will not be like it was on the Phillies where he was one good hitter among many. Guys like Utley, Howard, Rollins and Ibanez will no longer be there to pick up the slack.

With 75 extra base hits in 2010, Werth certainly played at the level of an $18 million player. But looking three or four years down the road, it’s hard to imagine a 36 year old Jayson Werth producing anywhere near the $18 million level.

Time will tell, as it always does. If Werth produces to his contract, Harper lives up to the hype, Strasburg recovers to his early 2010 form and Zimmerman signs an extension, the Nationals could be a force to be reckoned with in three or four years.

If the Nationals are not a team to be reckoned four years from now, Jayson Werth is sure to receive a great deal of the blame from fans.

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The signing of Cliff Lee last week leaves Carl Pavano as arguably the most sought-after free agent starting pitcher left this offseason.

Apologies to the rumored to retire Andy Pettitte since it would be a shocker for Pettitte to sign with any team other than the Yankees.

Speaking of the Yankees, ask any Yankee fan, and he or she can tell you the risk of signing Pavano to a multi-year deal. His four-year, $39.95 million deal signed with the Yankees before the 2005 season can be characterized in one word: DISASTROUS!

In Pavano’s four injury-riddled seasons with the Yankees, he logged only 145.2 innings while posting an ERA just over 5.00. Just mention the rumored asking price of three years, $30 million to any Yankee fan, and you are sure to get a priceless reaction.

The laundry list of Pavano’s past injuries includes his right shoulder, bruised buttocks, elbow strain and two broken ribs from an automobile accident he failed to report to the Yankees until 13 days after it happened in August of 2006.

Sure, Pavano posted tantalizing numbers in 2010 with 17 wins, a 3.75 ERA and 1.195 WHIP. But consider that Pavano pitched 221 innings in 2010, only his second season of 125-plus innings since 2004, when he was 28. Pavano will be 35 in 2011 with a lot more mileage on his oft-injured body.

Every baseball fan knows the value of good pitching, but the prospect of paying Pavano $30 million over three years seems too risky.

If Pavano can come close to duplicating his 2010 production over the next three years, $30 million will be a bargain. But with his past history, $30 million over three years seems like an enormous risk to the team that decides to sign him.

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