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2010 MLB Playoffs: Justin Morneau and the 10 Prime Question Marks for Contenders

We are in the home stretch of the long, arduous MLB season. The Minnesota Twins have wrapped up the AL Central, while five others (New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds) are all pretty much guaranteed spots.

That leaves the quartet of the Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies jockeying for the final two postseason spots: the National League West Crown and the NL Wild Card.

While each team has their strong points, such as the Padres pitching, and the Rockies having MVP candidates Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez (nice move Billy Beane), they also have their issues.

Below are the top ten players or factors that could affect teams already in or fighting for a postseason spot.

1) Justin Morneau

How bad was that innocuous slide into second base on July 7th for Morneau and the Twins? Well, it turned out to be very harmful, as Morneau has not played since that day, missing over 60 games with a concussion.

Prior to the injury, Morneau hit .345 with 18 homers and 56 RBIs and the former 2006 MVP was on his way to another award this season.  

There is no set timetable for Morneau’s return, and while he did take batting practice last week, his symptoms persist.

The Twins have fared very well in Morneau’s absence (Michael Cuddyer has moved to first base and filled in admirably), but that was mostly against the mediocre at best AL Central foes. The absence of Justin’s big bat in the middle of the lineup could prove fatal in the post season against a team like the Rays, Yankees or Rangers.

2) Joe Mauer

Not only has Morneau missed considerable time, but now the other M of the “M & M Boys” is out with an injury. Mauer hurt his left knee swinging during a game this past Sunday, but an MRI has revealed no structural damage.

This is great news for the Twins who were hoping Mauer did not aggravate a prior left knee injury he suffered in 2004 which ended his rookie season. That injury to his meniscus required surgery.

Winning the division on Tuesday night gives the Twins time to get Mauer needed rest and hopefully back into the lineup for the Division Series.

3) Josh Hamilton

Will Hamilton be able to overcome the pain and play in the post season? Finally diagnosed with two slightly cracked ribs, Hamilton hasn’t played since September 4th. The Rangers lost that game and have been 8-8 with Hamilton out of the lineup.

That is not good enough in the postseason. The Rangers heavy right handed hitting lineup needs Hamilton’s left handed production to win.

My bet is Hamilton plays through the pain.

4) AJ Burnett

The Yankees were ecstatic when Andy Pettitte pitched six high quality innings in his first major league outing after missing two months with a groin strain. Why he was not allowed a seventh inning is still puzzling, but his success gives the Yankees another consistent, top starter for the postseason.

With Phil Hughes back on track after last night’s performance, the Yankees have their third starter ready to go.

But unlike last season, when the Yankees rode three starters to a World Series title, they need four this year.

That is where AJ Burnett comes into play.

Will he be good AJ or bad AJ? He had a horrible June (0-4, 11.35 ERA) and August (0-4, 7.80 ERA), but a great April (3-0, 2.43 ERA) and July (3-1, 2.00 ERA).

His four starts in September have been OK, but unless the Yankees crush the ball in a game, none have been good enough to win a tight postseason game.

He will get a start, but whether it is in Game 2 or Game 4 will depend on how AJ pitches in his last couple starts.

5) Matt Garza and All Rays Pitchers Not Named David Price

This is basically all about the Rays starting pitching, and many of their relievers too. Widely recognized as the premier organization in developing starting pitching, this facet of their team has been terrible in September.

And their relievers have not been great either.

After the recent debacles by Garza and James Shields in the Bronx, Rays starters are 4-6, with a 5.47 ERA and 1.510 WHIP. Remove the four starts by Price, and Rays starters are 2-6, 7.11 ERA in September.

As mentioned previously, the relievers have not fared much better, posting a 4-4 record, 5.07 ERA and 1.459 WHIP.

But with his prior postseason success, Garza again needs to be the No. 2 man behind Price. Other than that, it is up in the air, and if I were Joe Maddon, I would not hesitate to start rookie Jeremy Hellickson in a postseason game.

6) Francisco Cordero

The Reds closer has recently been nothing short of a nightmare. In eight September appearances, Cordero has a 1-1 record with two blown saves and a couple more really scary moments.

His walk rate of 4.8 per nine innings pitched is an insanely high rate for a reliever, let alone a closer. And now he is giving up well more than a hit per inning this past month.

With Aroldis Chapman slinging 103 MPH fastballs and hard-breaking sliders, if Cordero continues to falter in the next two weeks, the Cuban defector is a viable option to close for Reds manager Dusty Baker.

But closing in postseason games is another matter and Chapman has only a month of major league baseball under his belt. My guess is Baker sticks with Cordero, good or bad.

Red fans hope it is the former.

7) San Francisco’s Lineup

If the Giants lose a postseason spot in 2010, they will look back at the time from the season’s commencement through May 27th.

Why? Those days contained the 47 games in which Buster Posey did not play for the Giants. The Giants management told their fans that Posey was “not ready” for the majors behind the plate, but they still needed his bat.

Well, he seemed pretty good to me, and his bat was definitely ready. So, instead of trying to save money by eliminating his Super 2 status, the struggles of Bengie Molina warranted Posey’s call up before the Giants really intended.

But waiting so long might have cost the Giants a few wins early in the season. The Braves are happy they brought up Jason Heyward early. Imagine where the Braves would be now if they did not have Heyward’s .292 AVG/.400 OBP/.578 SLG/.978 OPS in April and May?

Since Barry Bonds last played in 2007, the Giants have always struggled with their offense. They added Aubrey Huff and desperate for offense, the Giants signed two of the biggest negative clubhouse influences in Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen.

Those moves were made because last year’s hitting star, Pablo Sandoval, has struggled all season. The Giants are 12-6 in September, but have scored two or fewer runs in 11 of those contests.

That will not get it done the last dozen games.

Burrell and Guillen have helped in spurts and surprisingly have not caused any issues, but the Sabermetrics guys would say their short time in San Francisco would be a “very short sample.”

The pitching is there in San Francisco, but guys like Sandoval need to hit better, and Burrell and Guillen need to be more productive.

You would hate to have to look back on the first two months and think what might have been? Especially if the Giant miss out on the postseason while Heyward and the Braves sneak in as the Wild Card.

8) San Diego’s Confidence and Strength

The Friars suffered through a stretch where they lost 10 straight games, but still held on to the NL West lead. But after sweeping three games from the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Pads went on to lose five of their next 12. 

Now they are a half game behind the division leading Giants and a full game behind the Wild Card leading Braves. Interestingly, none of these games are in the loss column, as all three teams have 66 losses.

But this season for the Padres will not come down to their offense (anemic, but still better than the Giants) or their pitching (good, but nearly as good as the Giants), but their constitution and strength.

While they are a small market team with a low payroll, this is NOT a exceedingly young team. Veteran presence is strong with Adrian Gonzalez, David Eckstein, Yorvit Torrealba and recent additions Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick.

Three of the starting pitchers are young, including ace Mat Latos (who has been bombed in his last two starts), but veterans Jon Garland and an experienced bullpen headed by Heath Bell and Mike Adams are sound.

My feeling is that the Padres’ veterans and staid manager Buddy Black overcome this lowpoint and come away with a postseason spot. This will be helped by a favorable schedule which sees two more games versus the lowly Dodgers and a seven game homestand against long-distance travel teams in Cincinnati and Chicago.

But the final three game trip to San Francisco is going to be must watch TV late at night here on the East Coast.

9) Joulys Chacin

They have Tulo and CarGo, and Jason Giambi probably is wearing his golden thong again. The lineup has produced a .298/.370/.476/.846 OPS helping lead the annual September surge for the Rocks.

But their pitching staff is just OK, and even with Ubaldo Jiminez seeming to round back into form, their starters are only 8-8 with a 4.05 ERA in September.

A key for them is of course, Jiminez, but Joulys Chacin needs to throw the ball well in his last two starts to keep the bullpen rested and to add another ace to the staff. The Rockies bullpen is throwing more than three innings per game in September with a 4.47 ERA over this span.

The 23-year-old Venezualan rookie is 4-1, 1.88 ERA in his last seven appearances, but has only averaged six innings in those starts. He must be allowed to go longer in his starts like his last outing of eight innings.  

10) Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson

In September, the Braves starting pitchers are 7-10 with a 4.88 ERA but the relievers are much better with a 2-1 record and 2.27 ERA.

Much of that starting pitcher nastiness is centered on two guys, youngsters Mike Minor and Jair Jurrjens. They are a combined 1-4, 7.87 ERA and 1.781 WHIP in 32 IP over seven starts!

And Jurrjens was removed from his last start with what is diagnosed as a small horizontal tear in his meniscus. This injury is to his right knee, his posting leg when on the hill. I would not let him pitch again this season.

With all these injuries and subpar performances, the Braves big three starting pitchers need to produce like they have most of the season. If Derek Lowe (3-0, 1.35 ERA in September), Tommy Hanson (2-1, 2.77 ERA) and Tim Hudson (1-3, 5.33 ERA, but a good last start) can perform well, they can balance out the pitching and a recently shaky offense.

 

Much of these issues revolve around pitching, mostly starting pitching. Great pitching is paramount in September and in the postseason.

In regards to injuries, with the minor league seasons over, this eliminates game situations for injured starts for Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Josh Hamilton before they get into a meaningful game. Even if they play, and Mauer and Hamilton are locks to play in the postseason, how will their layoffs affect their performances?  

That is what pressure players do. They perform when the odds are against them. The stars who do play well, and the rotations which perform the best, will get those last two coveted spots in the National League and will decide who advances to the World Series.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres or Atlanta Braves: Whose Decline Shocks Most?

Three weeks ago, all three of the teams listed in the headline were in first place. A couple of them were in somewhat commanding position. The Texas Rangers had an eight-game lead at one point, the San Diego Padres had a lead of six-and-a-half games, while the Atlanta Braves had a three-game lead.

But all three teams have struggled at some point over these last three weeks.

The Rangers had suffered losing streaks of four and five games, and had lost their ace pitcher, Cliff Lee, for one start. Plus their MVP candidate, Josh Hamilton, was also sidelined with a myriad of injuries.

Now they have won five in a row, sweeping the New York Yankees this past weekend, and their ace looks as good as ever. They never had an issue with blowing their playoff chances since their division is terrible, and their lineup is stacked with power hitters.

Even if their pitching was struggling, their lineup were always going to produce runs.

Who wasn’t going to produce runs to get out of a slump was the Padres, but they never produced lots of runs all season. They rank 12th in the National League in runs scored.

However, they pitch very well and are first in the National League in team ERA with a 3.33 mark. With a big ballpark and the league’s best pitching, the Padres jumped out to a surprisingly large lead in the National League West.

So when the pitching began to suffer and the lineup still could not score runs, the team went into a losing streak. August was the worst month for the Padres in team ERA (3.71) and WHIP (1.388), and they lost 10 games in a row.

The Padres have pitching, but not much offense, so when their pitching went south for a little while, it was no surprise that their total losses went north.

But what was surprising was the Braves and how they began to falter. Unlike the Rangers and Padres, the Braves have both a lineup which produces runs, and a deep pitching staff.

Led by catcher Brian McCann, ROY candidate Jason Heyward, and relative unknowns Omar Infante and Martin Prado, the Braves are third in the National League in runs scored. They are also fourth in team ERA, and have a strong bench and bullpen. Those factors forge a powerful combination in the batter’s box and on the hill.

That combination is why it was surprising to see the Braves go into that late August, early September tailspin. Going into Monday night’s contest, the Braves were 9-11 in their last 20 games.

That left them a game behind the Philadelphia Phillies, who have worked to overcome a seven-game deficit. The Phillies are now healthy with Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley back in the lineup, and the big deadline deal for ace pitcher Roy Oswalt has worked out.

Since that trade with the Houston Astros, Oswalt is 6-1 with a 1.98 ERA and combined with another ace in Roy Halladay and the full lineup, the Phillies have taken over first place.

Compounding their drop to second place in the National League East, the Braves also saw other teams besides the Phillies get on a roll. The Colorado Rockies are smack into their annual September comeback, winning 10 in a row, and the San Francisco Giants have come on to challenge not only Atlanta and Colorado for the Wild Card, but also for the NL West.

Since both depend more on one part of the game than the other, it was no surprise that the Texas Rangers and San Diego Padres fell off for a bit.

But the Atlanta Braves have good bats and arms, and one or the other should have picked up the slumping side.

With the surging Phillies, Giants, and Rockies, it will take both their strong and versatile lineup and their deep pitching staff to avoid missing the playoffs in Bobby Cox’s last season.

 

 

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Austin Romine: Is He the New York Yankees Future Behind the Plate?

With the Trenton Thunder’s 8-1 win Friday night in New Hampshire, the Yankees Double-A affiliate advanced to the Eastern League finals for the third time in the last four seasons.

With absolutely stunning pitching, the Thunder’s starters and relievers held the Fisher Cats to ONE run in 30 innings over the three games.

Some of that credit has to go to the catcher for all three of those games, 21 year old Austin Romine. During the series, Romine caught a potential future ace in Dellin Betances, a potential Hall of Famer in Andy Pettitte, and an up and coming Johan Santana clone (but with a better curve ball) in Manuel Banuelos.

Banuelos threw seven innings of shutout ball last night for his first win this season. ManBan will be a really good major league pitcher.   

The Yankees love Romine and are loaded with catching prospects. They have 20 year old Jesus Montero in Triple-A Scranton, Romine in Trenton, 19 year old J.R. Murphy in Low-A Charleston, and rifle armed 17 year old Gary Sanchez, who just finished up in short season Staten Island.

Many in the media—both New York and the national media plus the prospect circuit and about a gazillion bloggers—believe Romine will be the catching future in the Bronx.

I am sorry to let you down, but I don’t see it happening.

He may get some time as a major league catcher, but for him to have a long and distinguished career in New York, Romine will have to improve many aspects of his game on both sides of the ball.

I was at the two home games in the Eastern League playoff semifinals but have seen about 15 Trenton games this year, many with Romine behind the plate.

I checked my notes from the playoff games to those in the early and middle part of the season, and many of them are similar.

Behind the plate, Romine calls a very good game and works well with all the Trenton pitchers. I spoke with Dellin Betances, Adam Warren, Lance Pendleton, and D.J. Mitchell, the latter two before they were promoted to Triple-A Scranton. 

All said they love to throw to Romine and how good he is behind the plate, but to be fair here, ALL Yankee pitchers love to work with ALL their system’s catchers.  

Even Andy Pettitte at his press conference last week after his rehab start said Romine was “great to throw to.”

But delving deeper: Warren, who threw mostly fastballs and a few sliders in relief of Pettitte, said that Romine was aware of how much pop his fastball had. He kept calling for it, not calling for Warren’s curve ball or change much at all.

But Romine does not have good hands behind the plate: he regularly lets two to three pitches (or more!) go off his glove per game.

They may occur with the bases empty so they are not passed balls, but there is no denying Romine needs to work on his receiving skills. It seems like he has trouble with velocity and/or serious ball movement.

In several recent games, I mentioned this fact to several veteran baseball guys in the stands, who after the game acknowledged that Romine has a problem.

Many people think Romine is just plain tired, but these mishaps occurred early in the season too, so I do not buy that excuse. I believe he oftentimes lacks concentration behind the plate.

However, to be fair, Romine is in the first full season catching as he usually split time the last two years with Jesus Montero in Low-A Charleston in 2008 and for much of the 2009 season in High-A Tampa.

His throwing arm appeared good one night but very weak and off target other nights. His footwork is inconsistent with each throw and even during between-innings throws, he is sometimes off balanced.

While he glove work needs help, his hitting may need more.

He looked slow against Kyle Drabek* the other night. Not that anyone else in the Trenton lineup was hitting him well (Daniel Brewer did hit a fourth inning line drive RBI single), but Romine was consistently behind Drabek’s good fastball.

And he never had a chance at Drabek’s breaking stuff.

*Drabek has been rewarded with his Eastern League Pitcher of the Year performance with his first major league start, scheduled for Wednesday. This is a reward and also to keep Drabek’s innings mounting so he will be on pace for 200+ next season as a full-time starter in the Toronto Blue Jays’ rotation. No way they let Drabek pitch for Triple-A Las Vegas and put him in that environment

That was the second time recently I saw Romine face Drabek—he was not much better the first time around; lots of flailing swings and quite a few weakly hit ground balls.

In fact, there are very few times Romine catches up with a good fastball, and most of the times I see him hit the ball well on the fastball are when he goes the other way with an outside pitch, like he did with his one hit off Drabek the other night.

It appears he knows he can’t catch up with the fastball because he pulls off the ball very quickly looking for the inside pitch. When he does that, there is no way he hits a good breaking ball.

I can’t believe that the Yankees are sending him to the Arizona Fall League (again!) after his first full season as a catcher. While most teams out there stock three or four catchers, he might only catch one game a week. But last year, Romine only had 15 at bats out there, so he might just make an appearance or two.

The Yankees system is stacked in the catching department, and it does not seem out of the question that one of the younger kids like Murphy or Sanchez (who can hit for big time power and has a tremendous throwing arm) could overtake Romine in the pecking order.

Romine is consistent as he had exactly 122 hits each of his first three professional seasons. But his plate appearances and at-bats have increased each year and his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentages are all lower than they were in 2008.

Austin Romine is very likable. He is a good kid, always ready to talk to the media, and keeps the young fans happy with autographs and a free game ball or two.

But as the catching future for the New York Yankees, I don’t see it happening.

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Jorge Posada: How Will His Concussion Symptoms Affect The Stretch Run?

Yesterday, Jorge Posada was hit square in the facemask with a foul tip. He appeared to shake off its affects, and it seemed that today’s day off was just a regular breather with a day game after a night game.

But when Francisco Cervelli came up with two men on in the bottom of the seventh inning, Posada was not sent up to pinch-hit for the solid-contact-challenged backup catcher.

Joe Girardi was asked if Posada was available in that situation, and he replied “No.” When further queried, Girardi said Posada had some “concussion-type symptoms” from that foul tip, and told the Yankees after yesterday’s game that he had some headaches.

Posada was sent to a neurologist to get tested for a concussion and was not at the ballpark.

From there the questioning went to whether Posada would fly with the team to Texas for the road trip. Flying on planes is a no-no with head injuries. In 2008, Ryan Church of the New York Mets flew not once, but twice after suffering not one, but two concussions that season.

Also, this season, Jason Bay of the Mets and Justin Morneau of the Minnesota Twins have been out indefinitely with concussions. Morneau has been out since July 7.

Girardi said in his postgame presser that the Yankees will wait to hear from the doctors to determine whether Posada will be available. Not saying if he was concerned that if Posada does have a concussion he would miss the rest of the season, Girardi did say he expected Posada to miss some time.

If Posada is not allowed to fly, that means Posada will not make this road trip to Texas and Tampa, but could then take the train to Baltimore for next weekend’s series.

I do not believe Posada has a concussion only from being hit in the mask with a foul tip. I have been hit with foul tips both as a catcher and as an umpire. In the latter case, a 90-plus mph fastball was fouled tipped and hit me straight in the mask, and I fell back on my rear end.

I was shaky for about five minutes, but did proceed to finish the game.

But if he does have a concussion and is out for awhile, this puts the Yankees in a tough situation. With Cervelli and Chad Moeller the only other catchers on the 40-man roster, would the Yankees go out and obtain another catcher, or stick with what they have?

Will they go outside the organization or stay in house? Jesus Montero is the only listed catcher on Scranton’s roster with P.J. Pilettere, a former catcher, listed as a first baseman. 

In Double-A Trenton, Rene Rivera is there as back-up to Austin Romine. Rivera was with the Yankees in spring training and does have major league experience.

I believe Posada will be part of the team in September, but definitely in October. Even a few weeks of rest under a bad scenario would help Posada get back healthy.

But if Jorge can not go, that is a very big bat out of the lineup. If you need more offense late in the season, Montero is the way to go, even if he is the back-up for Cervelli and an occasional pinch hitter/DH.

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Derek Jeter: This Yankee Icon Is Not Finished, but Needs To Learn To Adjust

A recent article by John Harper of the New York Daily News quoted two former players saying that Derek Jeter will play hardball with the Yankees over his next contract.

I am asking why would Derek Jeter need to play hardball?

Is he going anywhere else?  No.

Will he ever wear another uniform?  Of course not.

Jeter has said he eventually wants to be a part owner of the Yankees.

Do you think that will ever happen if he ever plays for another organization? I have said countless times that he is today’s Joe DiMaggiogreat on the field, a multiple World Series winner, and quiet icon off the field.

So what is all the worry for? Is it that Jeter has been in a five for 47 slump over the last dozen games? 

The idea is to win games, not have the best batting average or highest slugging or best WAR. And the Yankees are winning games. In fact, they have won more games than any other team in baseballeven with a slumping Jeter and little consistency in the rotation after CC Sabathia.

Jeter is now hitting .264 on the season, a full 70 points lower than he did last season, and his OBP is 76 points lower. People are now claiming Jeter is on the downside, because he is older and most other non-steroid hitters have all suffered the same fate.

It is one seasonin fact, it is really only a couple months.

Besides not having his share of home runs and opposite field singles this season, everything else is pretty much the same offensively. Jeter is on pace for the same amount of runs scored, doubles, RBI, and almost as many walks.

It is mainly his lack of his trademark singles, that liner into right field or the hard ground ball which gets through the infield. Those extra hits have wreaked havoc with Jeter’s OBP and SLG. Yes, singles hurt slugging percentages. 

Jeter is second among active players with 2,139 singles and has been first of second in the AL in singles eight times in his 15 full seasons.

I have seen the articles and heard the talking heads discussing Jeter’s demise, how he is on the downside, and how the Yankees can not give him a long-term deal and big money after a “terrible” season like this*.

*No matter what Jeter’s season ends up as, and he could still have a great September and postseason, I give Jeter what ever he wants money wise. As I wrote earlier this year, I give Jeter a 10 year deal for $180-$200 million.

As I have said many times, Jeter is a prideful guy and would want Jeter-type money, even if he continues to hit like he has so far this season. But, Jeter is also like DiMaggio in that he will leave this game on top and not with his skills clearly eroding for everyone to see, even if millions of dollars are still on the table. 

Guys like Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays suffered at the end of their careers. Mantle stuck around for a year too long, trying to help the Yankees fill seats at the Stadium. Mantle stayed on a year plus after he hit his 500th HR and eventually saw his career average fall below .300. Letting that average fall below that magic .300 number was always one of Mantle’s big regrets after his career ended.

Mays was a shell of himself when he played in New York for the Mets. Yes, he did play in one more World Series but the last thoughts of many baseball fans was Mays floundering around in that 1973 Series, showing his true age. For all intents and purposes, Willie’s last season should have been 1971. Luckily for him, his career average stayed above .300 after his final season.

Jeter will leave the game well before he is toast. It could be two years or could be five years, but either way he will not stay around just for the money. And playing baseball for a living is not like other occupationspeople in most other occupations do not have their skills erode to the detriment of millions of fans.

If YOU were guaranteed a 10-year deal with your company, you would definitely stay on the job because you DO need the money and have no pride to stay around if you couldn’t do the work anymore. You would be George Costanza staying on at the playground ball company Play Now

Jeter is not like that. He does not need the money and will not stay around just to collect a check.

And when Jeter does leave the game, the Yankees will not be liable for the balance of his contract, although I believe the Yankees will have Jeter on a personal services deal immediately after he retires. It is the only time a MLB player’s contract is NOT guaranteed. Salomon Torres retired two years ago from the Milwaukee Brewers and left $3.75 million on the table.

What I haven’t seen or heard (especially from sabermetric guys) is how Jeter might be UNLUCKY this season. You know that thing saber guys use when they can’t explain why things happen on the field of play?

Why isn’t Jeter just plain unlucky? I showed above how all his other stats (besides HRs) are the same.

You see, Jeter’s BABIP has always been over .300 and last year it was an incredible .368, but this season it is only .298, below the norm of .300 and well below last season. His career BABIP is .356!

That means he is unlucky compared to last year and pretty much his entire career. So this year it will “even out” to what Jeter’s norm is, right?

So why haven’t I read or heard about how Jeter is unlucky? Is it because since Jeter’s BABIP this season is around the norm, this is what Jeter really is, a .265ish type hitter with little power? In fact, the Jeter detractors would probably argue that Jeter might be considered extremely lucky for his career!

Yeah, most guys who have 15 plus year Hall of Fame careers are always lucky when their BABIP’s are higher than .300, the major league average on balls in play. But it is only an average and many guys do have higher BABIP’s and some have lower ones.

But what I have seen that for the most part, guys who are really good hitters usually have higher BABIP’s. They have better approaches and hit the ball harder more often.

Sure, hard hit balls are sometimes right at fielders and little bloop hits fall in and “find grass.”

But good hitters do not get themselves out on the hard inside pitch by getting jammed all the time, they don’t swing at too many pitches outside the zone on the inner half and don’t flail-swing at many bad pitches on the outside part of the zone trying to compensate for a slower bat.

Three things Jeter is doing this season, more often than he has before.

Good hitters, however, adjust their swings according to how they are performing and how they are being pitched, but Jeter does NOT do that and it is causing him problems.

I have seen him all season. He still hits the same way he has his entire career and has not changed a thing**. He leans over the plate too much with his upper body. He is out on his front foot much more this season and when your bat slows down (and Jeter’s has), leaning over the plate and being out on your front foot is not a good combination.

**Unbelievably, Jeter even uses the exact same model bat, same length and weight, that he did his first year in the majors.

The swing is two distinct parts, working in tandem. First you step and then you swing. When I mean step, it could be an actual step, a toe tap or just an inward rotation of the front foot. When this happens, the hands move back to gain some separation. Then the hips turn, the hands bring the bat forward and through. 

The back side and front side are working together, but the bottom and top also need to work together. Think of your stance as a building with the waist as the midpoint, with the legs being the foundation and the upper body the steeple. The steeple needs to stay directly on top of the foundation for control and power.

Jeter is too out of control when he swings, as he brings his upper body forward and too far over the plate—that is causing all the weakly hit ground balls.

What you do not want to do is lean forward when you begin the swing process as this brings the hands forward with the upper body. A hitter can jam himself on inside pitches by doing this. When hitters “can’t catch up with the fastball,” bringing the hands forward with the upper body is one of the faults which contribute to that.

When pitchers are pounding you inside early in your career, your quick hands can guide the bat through the zone and you will get those extra hits to right field and up the middle. But when your hands and bat slow down, those extra hits become dribbling ground balls and weak pop ups.

When I played in my late 30′s – early 40′s, my bat became slower and I had to compensate for my slowness by being more of a location hitter and starting my swing early. Since these college pitchers (and catchers) were throwing me inside, I had to “cheat” by looking inside and committing earlier than normal.

In college and up into my mid 30′s, I was a gap-to-gap guy, but ended up more of a pull hitter later in my career.

While it will not happen this year, Jeter needs to change his hitting approach after this season.

Jeter needs to begin to alter his swing and keep his upper body back more. That will help him become a better hitter by using his legs more to get around on that inside pitch. Early in the count, Jeter might want to begin to become a “location hitter.” When he is looking for an inside pitch, Jeter usually gets around on it and makes better contact.

And Jeter will not be dropped in the batting order, either. Joe Girardi is NOT like Joe Torre. If Girardi did not drop Mark Teixeira in the lineup earlier this season, there is no way he drops Jeter. You play with the guys who have gotten you here (best record in baseball).

There have been stories that Jeter still wants to hit his way and does not seek much guidance from Yankee hitting coach Kevin Long. Guys like Alex Rodriguez, Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano eat up all the info from Long, but Jeter goes about things on his own.

That will change.

Seeing the effect that Long has had on all the above guys and with the recent quick results with Curtis Granderson, I bet Jeter works with Long over the offseason and comes back strong again next year.

Just like he got better two seasons ago with his defense by getting in better playing shape, Jeter’s pride to become better and not fall off will be too much not to seek Long’s help. Jeter has his pride, but is too smart to continue to let that get in the way of improving.

He will improve his game over the winter, the same way he has done it over the years. He is the perfect player, not doing much of anything incorrectly.

He is so good at being a professional that the media took to having to rip him for not showing up at Bob Sheppard’s funeral. There was nothing else, until now with this late season hitting slump.

I believe that many people really want Jeter to fail, to have his skills erode so they can write him off. Jeter is the perfect player who has succeeded at most everything his entire life. He is a winner, a guy you can’t quantify via “advanced” statistical analysis.

Derek Jeter is a guy who has many big hits and great moments in his career, but according to his critics, might have been nothing more than a singles hitter with limited range on defense.

Overrated they say. But overrated players do not help their organization win five World Series titles, get to two others, and compile over 3,000 career hits over a 15 plus year HOF career.

As Yankee fans our BABIP has been high because we are “lucky” Jeter played in pinstripes all these years.

He will continue to do so in the future, for as many years as he wants.

Just let him play, finally adjust, and do his thing.

Quantcast

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Cliff Lee: Could the Texas Rangers Face a First-Round Exit Without Their Ace?

A few weeks ago, the Editors at the Bleacher Report asked me to write a piece on why getting Cliff Lee was going to make the Texas Rangers World Series participants.

Now, with Lee’s struggles and his recent back injury, I have been asked to write a contrasting piece on why Lee’s recent struggles are going to derail the Rangers’ World Series push.

In his last five starts for Texas, Lee is 0-3 with an 8.28 ERA, allowing 44 hits in 29 innings. He has walked only three and struck out 35, but allowed 10 home runs over this span.

Don’t worry, Nolan Ryan, your ace will be fine.

There was much talk last season, too, about Lee and his struggles midway through his tenure in Philadelphia. After a glowing 5-0 record in his first five starts after the 2009 trade from Cleveland, Lee was pummeled in his next three starts.

Those first five starts last year saw Lee throw 40 innings, allowing 24 hits and three earned runs while walking six and striking out 39. In his next three starts, he lasted 15 innings total, allowing 29 hits, 16 ERs, walking none and striking out 12.

Even though he struggled his last two regular season starts, too, Lee eventually figured everything out and was very Christy Mathewson-like in the 2009 postseason.

He will be fine again, but he must learn to read my writings and adjust to the league’s hitters.

I wrote a piece two weeks ago about Lee going to New York for next season. I mentioned his struggles, and said one reason might be the approach other teams might have towards Lee.

Lee is a control pitcher. He does not throw 95-plus and needs to locate his fastball, change, and curve ball in order to be successful. One of the big things talked about with Lee this season is that he does not walk batters. He has only 12 walks this season in 184 innings, a walk rate of 0.6 per nine innings.

That is too few walks. That’s right. Lee does not walk enough people. He throws too many strikes—about 72 percent of his pitches this season have been strikes. Knowing that he is always around the plate, teams are now looking to swing the bat against him early and often in the count.

Don’t take a strike, don’t get behind in the count, and don’t let him use that devastating change-up while ahead.

Now other baseball analysts have gotten into this fray.

Look at the above stats. In the two bad stretches when he was getting hit, Lee did not walk anybody and still got his strikeouts. But he was lit up like the Rockefeller Christmas tree. Sometimes hitters need to attack early, and they were against Lee.

There is a reason why guys like Catfish Hunter, Robin Roberts, and Bert Blyleven (all really good pitchers, but only two are Hall of Famers), gave up a lot of home runs.

They were always around the plate.

Lee is giving up a lot of home runs now with Texas, but only 15 total this season, not that much different from 2009, when he allowed 17.

Also, Lee has now begun to complain of a sore back. He has taken shots in the lower back to alleviate the pain, but Lee is not centering his struggles on the recent back pain. With a substantial lead (now eight games) in the American League West, it might be best for the Rangers to rest Lee and not throw him until he does feel 100 percent.

Even if Lee is not at his best entering the postseason, the Rangers will be okay. They have a potent offense led by MVP candidate Josh Hamilton, plus Vladimir Guerrero and Micheal Young, a stellar bullpen led by Rookie of the Year candidate Neftali Feliz, and other good, young starters in C.J. Wilson and Tommy Hunter.

And with the return of second baseman Ian Kinsler, the Rangers offense just got better.

Kinsler’s return to the lineup and the great bullpen can compensate for any lack of starting pitching the Rangers may develop.

Similar to last season, Lee will be good to go during the postseason, and even if he is not 100 percent, the Rangers have other weapons to take them forward.

Unless Hamilton’s chronic bad back, gimpy knee, or recently banged up rib gets more troublesome.

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The Nyjer Morgan Marlins Brawl: Time To Outlaw Barreling Over the Catcher

When Nyjer Morgan was hit in the hip by a fourth inning Chris Volstad fastball in last night’s game, it was payback for Morgan running over Florida catcher Brett Hayes a night earlier. Late in the game a full-fledged brawl erupted when Morgan was thrown at again.

Hayes suffered a separated shoulder in that home plate collision, a play which need not have happened. The throw from Hanley Ramirez was high and if Morgan slid, he most likely would have been safe. It was the second home plate collision Morgan caused this past week.

But the problem is that runners rounding third and coming home usually decides to knock over the catcher when he is about 20-30 feet from home plate. There is no chance for them to end up sliding.

If they did then try and slide, they might get injured. You see many times when a player slides too late at any base they end up catching a spike in the ground and wrenching or even breaking their ankle.

This is not the first time this season that a runner hurt a catcher on a collision at home plate. Mark Teixeira plowed over Angels catcher Bobby Wilson, injuring Wilson’s head and severely hurting his ankle. What if Teixeira got hurt? Would that run really be worth Tex on the DL for two months?

And how can we not forget about Ray Fosse, whose All-Star career was derailed after Pete Rose barreled him over in the 1970 All-Star Game?

And this type of play does not just end in injury on the spot. It also affects how catchers play the game during the rest of their careers.

Fosse was a power hitting backstop in 1970, smashing 16 home runs by that All-Star break. He finished with only 18 that season, and never hit more than 12 in a season the rest of his career.

Drafted as a second baseman, Yankee catcher Jorge Posada was converted to catcher during his Yankee minor league career. During a minor league game, Posada was run over in a game and seriously injured.

He is now not that good on plays at the plate. He shies away from contact, and many times the ball. The prior collision has affected his play as a catcher throughout his career.

Another Yankee catcher, Francisco Cervelli, broke his wrist in a 2008 home plate collision with Tampa’s Elliot Johnson during a spring training game! That eventually led to a bench clearing brawl when the Yankees Shelley Duncan went in high with his spikes at Rays second baseman Akinori Iwamura.

In that game, Jonny Gomes of the Rays played the Gabby Sanchez role from last night when he came in from right field and tackled Duncan.

From my days of playing, I have been on both ends of the spectrum. I have been run over (still held on to the ball), and have run a guy over (and he held on to the ball). Most of the time, the catcher does hold on to the ball anyway, so why even do it?

The runner risks injury just as much as the catcher. In both occasions when I played, I was sore after each collision. The runner can also be injured on this type of play.

In 2008, David Murphy of the Texas Rangers barreled into Yankees catcher Ivan Rodriguez and Murphy missed the rest of that season with a badly hurt knee.

Running over the catcher is such a bad play on all accounts. The runner is still out on most occasions, someone always get hurt, and the effects can stay with a catcher throughout his career.

I am old-school on everything in baseball. I abhor instant replay, sabermetrics, pitch counts, innings limits, and postseason games only played at night.

So many teams restrict their young pitchers usage so they can “save his arm and prolong his career.” Why then does baseball allow these violent collisions at home plate, when most of the time, someone is injured?  

There is such a severe shortage in quality all around catchers, that MLB and the individual teams simply can’t afford to have a catcher seriously injured.

Base runners should now be required to slide into home plate just as they are required to slide into the other bases. Why should home plate be different?

Runners would be able to dive head first into home plate but to intentionally run over the catcher should be outlawed. After all these collision you might start seeing teams tell their runners to slide into home plate. It just makes sense.

This rule will not avoid all injuries to catchers and young Cleveland Indians backstop Carlos Santana is an example of that, although I still believe that Ryan Kalish would have been safe had he slid to AVOID contact. In the example above on Murphy, he slid feet first into Rodriguez and still was hurt badly.

This rule would not lessen all, but MOST major injuries to catchers, and many injuries to the runners.

And the runners might actually score more runs.

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Javier Vazquez Back Into the Yankees Starting Rotation…But Why?

Back in 2007, the Yankees had a starting pitcher in the minors who blew through several levels of play. He regularly hit the gun at 95-97 MPH, even as late as the seventh inning in one game for the Trenton Thunder.

He was good starting pitching prospect, but the Yankees needed his power arm in their bullpen. So Joba Chamberlain was in the bullpen for the 2007 post season.

He was tried as a starting pitcher and despite not being Wes Ferrell right off the bat, he still did well considering he was restricted in more ways that Stephen Strasburg laughs at him.

But Chamberlain was perceived to be a better pitcher as a reliever (where he was needed) and the numbers appeared to show this fact. Even before this inconsistent season from the pen, Chamberlain has a lower ERA, WHIP, and higher strikeout and K/BB rates as a reliever.

Despite only starting 43 games, Chamberlain was better in the pen than as a starter. The debate was fierce and everyone had an opinion.

However, the Yankees are going in a different direction with another pitcher who gets much better results when he comes out of the bullpen.

Manager Joe Girardi said today that Javier Vazquez will move back into the rotation on Saturday, replacing Dustin Moseley. This comes on the heels of Vazquez’ two really good relief appearances over the past week.

In the first one on Aug. 25, Vazquez came in the middle of the fourth inning to replace Phil Hughes. Vasquez completed the game, going 4.1 innings, allowing two hits, one earned run, while walking one. He struck out two.

The second appearance was on Aug. 30, where Vazquez replaced the increasingly ineffective Moseley. Once again, he finished the game, cruising through almost five very effective innings. He finished with 4.2 IP, allowing two hits, one earned run, walked one hitter while striking out six batters.

In his last two appearances, both in relief of ineffective starting pitchers, and totaled nine innings of two run ball. He kept the Yankees in the first game (an eventual loss to Toronto) and got the win in relief of Moseley.

He also got the win in the May 17 game versus Boston, when he came in relief and struck out Kevin Youkilis in a big late inning situation. That was the game which Marcus Thames homered off of Jonathan Papelbon in the bottom of the ninth inning.

As a reliever, Vazquez has a 1.93 ERA, 0.643 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 4.5 SO/BB and a .125 BAA. All those numbers are considerably better than the 5.07 ERA, 1.366 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.9 SO/BB, and .257 BAA.

So then why put Vazquez back into the rotation?

He pitches so much better out of the pen in his long-man role. At the point when Vazquez enters games, either the Yankees are behind a few runs or the game is close and the Yankees have scored a bunch of runs already.

The game is already in its groove, and the big pressure of starting is off. Does Vazquez relish this lack of pressure role, where he is being used to give the Yankees innings?

Probably. Although he is a veteran pitcher, the pressure of New York was the reason why many people thought he wouldn’t pitch well this year after the off season trade with the Atlanta Braves.

With Ivan Nova, Moseley’s spot, and Phil Hughes commanding three straight starts in the current rotation, that is a lot of possible innings for the bullpen to pitch. You need a long man to maybe keep the Yankees in the game if one of those guys hit the showers early.

Like Hughes did on Aug. 25, and Moseley did two days ago.

Vazquez and Chad Gaudin (unbelievably surprising!) have formed a nice, recent one-two middle relief punch. Gaudin pitched well last night, throwing three innings in relief of another short Hughes outing.

But Moseley is not a very good pitcher, and should not start this Saturday. He is 2-1 but averages fewer than five innings a start. He’s walked 13 and struck out 11 while allowing five home runs, resulting in a 6.41 ERA.

But who to start on Saturday? You can always go the Sergio Mitre route, but that doesn’t excite me.

Nova has done well in his recall from Triple A so why not got down that well once again? While Moseley ws blowing up Monday night in the Bronx, David Phelps was throwing five innings of one run ball in Triple A.

Phelps has a 3.23 ERA in 11 appearances. While he does allow a fair share of hits, Phelps is similar to Nova in that he does not walk many hitters (13 in 62 AAA innings). You can give up hits or walks, just don’t be good at allowing both in the same game.

Phelps doesn’t need to be on the Yankees 40 man roster until after next season, I can not see him spending all his time in AAA all next year. He will pitch in the majors sometime in 2011.  

The Yankees have too many wasted spots on their 40 man roster, such as Chad Huffman, Wilkin De La Rosa, Reegie Corona and even Mitre is expendable. He will never get a post season roster spot.

So I say lets go with Phelps and see what he can do. It won’t be for long since Andy Pettitte will be back in two weeks.

Vazquez needs to stay in the bullpen now. He is performing well in that role.

Let Phelps pitch and if he does well, you have an idea about what to do with next years rotation with two youngsters (Nova and Phelps) who can make a run at a spot in 2011.

At the very least, it could increase his trade value in the off season.

 

 

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Hey, Bud Selig: What MLB Could Borrow From the Little League WS

As a National Correspondent for Bleacher Report, we have weekly articles assigned to us. My assignment this week is regarding the Little League World Series and what FIVE things Little League does which could possibly help MLB.

Things that Little League does which the MLB Commissioner, Bud Selig, could implement for his little group of grown men who play the same game. Suggestions were a more expanded replay system, a true “World Series” tournament, mandatory pitch counts for young pitchers, and a more expansive strike zone.

First off, the Little League game is different from the major league game. Little League is about protection while most (if not all) major league decision are based upon the money involved.

For example, LL has restrictive pitch counts so a pitcher lessens the chance or hurting his arm. But I have seen kids pitch in a baseball game, taken out due to a pitch count, but then throw 150 pitches of wiffle ball later that day*.

*By the way, the kid lost the real game but dominated in his wiffle ball game.   

MLB teams primarily have a pitch count and innings limits on young pitchers because of the money involved with developing young pitchers. If the teams did not have millions already invested in young pitchers, they would be worked harder. Because free agent pitchers cost so much money, these teams limit their young pitchers to avoid having to go the free agent route.

So, the two games are completely different. Not much LL does will help “improve” MLB.

I don’t believe there five things which Little League does which could help MLB. Going to an instant replay for every close call? LL Umpires in the World Series could run reviews of all close calls if they conference up, and each coach has one unsuccessful challenge to use.

Please. Spare me the “everything little thing needs to be exactly perfect” in this ever increasing liberal idea of utopia in baseball. MLB is a game played by men, umpired by men, who will sometimes make mistakes. I know I am in the minority amongst the goody do-gooders, but expanded instant replay is a dumb idea.

Armando Galaragga had his perfect game ruined by a bad call? We all know he did throw one, and he is more well known (and popular) then even Dallas Braden after he threw his.

Plus, I already wrote about what Jim Joyce should have done right after he made that call.

So, I am not big into the expanded use of replays. Not in the major leagues.

A true World Series? It would be awesome to see the 2009 Yankees play against the Japanese, Korean, Mexican League and other countries champions.

But it will never happen. Money and pitching once again. The Yankees would never risk CC Sabathia throwing 20+ more innings against the Mexico City Tigers or Yakult Swallows. We will never get the equivalent of a Japan vs. Hawaii ultimate championship game.

And mandatory pitch counts for young pitchers in MLB? That is a big farce, too. 

In the NFL, there are so many rules now to help protect the quarterbacks. We are one step away from putting them in red shirts and “tackling them” by two-hand touch. Troy Aikman even said it is good to try and protect these guys, but eventually you will get to the point “that they are not even playing football anymore.”

So true. Want to limit major league pitchers to say 100 pitches until they turn 25? It will not be baseball anymore if that ever happens. Hitters will take pitches on purpose to get a pitcher out of the game because you know they have to be taken out after three more pitches.

Now, most young guys are taken out near, at or past the 100 pitch count, but the other team does not know exactly when. To me, if a pitcher still has strong legs, and his mechanics are sound, he can still go longer than 100, or even 120 pitches.

The Nationals did everything for Stephen Strasburg but limo him to the mound every inning and cut his meat for him during dinner, but he still became injured.

So a mandatory pitch count for young pitchers is a stupid idea and will actually change the way the game is played on the field.

One thing which did sound good would help young pitchers. It appears that LL follows a real strike zone, one with pitches just on (or even slightly off) the corners were called strikes.

That is good for the game. More strikes called by the home plate umpire speeds up the game, and will force hitters to swing more often, putting more balls in play.

That would allow pitchers to get through more innings and batters faced over the same 100-120 pitches. Starters go deeper, there is less need for and use of a bullpen (no need for a 12th pitcher), which gives teams benches more depth.

Another factor is that everybody on the LL roster needs to get at least one at bat, and play three consecutive outs in the field. But the re-entry rule makes that mandatory playing rule survive, and re-entry (although admirable) would never fly in MLB.

Re-entry changes the game too drastically. Maybe that rule could be effective if a major injury occurs, but my expanded strike zone implementation would allow teams more depth on the bench. Therefore, an injury late in a game to a substitute player would not affect the team as much.

I would like a more expansive strike zone, a factor which will help the game in many ways.

The other things which Little League baseball does is bad for the major league game.

 

 

 

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Stephen Strasburg Needs Tommy John Surgery, What Next for Phil Hughes?

Stephen Strasburg needs Tommy John surgery (TJS), and if you are in shock over this, you shouldn’t be. Strasburg has all the requirements of a guy destined for this procedure.

First, he throws extremely hard, upwards of 100 MPH. That is just too taxing on the throwing arm’s tendons and ligaments. There is a certain threshold for the body when it comes to pitching a baseball. Second, Strasburg has brutal pitching mechanics, with a very violent motion.

Rather than a smooth arc in his arm’s backswing, Strasburg uses a direct path, leading with his elbow. In leading the backswing that way, Strasburg’s elbow ends up well above his shoulder, putting extra stress on his arm.

With his velocity, that combination is a terrible one-two punch, most often leading to surgery. AJ Burnett, who still has bad mechanics, was a similar pitcher at a young age and needed TJS many years ago.

Unless they have great mechanics, most hard throwers have multiple arm issues. I spoke at length with pitching coach Rick Peterson last winter and he agreed that the Strasburg and Burnett-type arm action was detrimental to a pitcher’s health.

Strasburg has been babied and coddled as much as any pitcher ever and he still came down with an injury (actually two if you count his shoulder soreness earlier). But like other hard throwers who had TJS (Josh Johnson, Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter), Strasburg will eventually come back and throw.

Let’s hope he has better mechanics upon his return or he is destined to be a reliever.

Many people are wondering why Strasburg was even in the majors just one season after his college career. Well, he dominated every level up to the major leagues and had nothing left to prove. He was carefully monitored, and likely would have the same injury pitching in the majors, minors, or college this season.

It is just a good thing that the Nationals were not in a playoff race and using Strasburg more than what he was actually used. That would have brought down a heap of big criticism from fans and media about “what is best for the player” and “the Nationals caused this injury.” *

*I am waiting for the criticism to start on Tony Gwynn, Strasburg’s head coach in college. While there is NO WAY Gwynn had anything to do with this injury by pitching Strasburg, someone has to be responsible in this blaming society we live in. Dusty Baker will never live down the injuries to Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, yet he had nothing to do with the terrible mechanics of both young pitchers.

Everyone knows how strict the Nats were with Strasburg. He never threw 100 pitches in any start, topping out at 99, and only entered the seventh inning in three of his 12 starts.

Yet he still needed surgery. It is more bad mechanics and his great velocity which put more torque on the elbow and shoulder than innings or pitch counts.

But while the Nationals had no playoff aspirations when Strasburg was called up, the Yankees do have World Series thoughts on their minds.

That begs the question of Phil Hughes’s innings limits this year. Hughes is 24, and has not had a full season on the mound yet in his major league career. He has a somewhat similar backswing arc as Strasburg, but it is not as drastic or violent as the Nationals phenom.

Hughes’ limit this year is in the 170-180 inning range, and he is currently at 144. He should be expected to make about six more starts which could give him another 35 innings or so. The Yankees might look to skip Hughes a start, or limit him in certain games, piggybacking Javier Vazquez in Phil’s starts.

But according to Cashman, come playoff time, “it’s all hands on deck” and Hughes could be part of the playoff rotation. The Yankee GM said he could not look people in the organization in the eyes and not use his best pieces in the most important games.

That means Hughes in the postseason rotation, likely slotting into the No. 4 spot.

While I have many times stated in the past that Hughes will definitely not be part of the postseason rotation, but will be in the bullpen, it likely is not the case. This is not to say that is what I thought the Yankees should do, but what I expected the Yankees to do was to put Hughes in the postseason bullpen.

Despite his last start in Toronto, Hughes is the Yankees’ second most consistent starting pitcher next to CC Sabathia. I trust him more in a playoff start than I do Javier Vazquez, Dustin Moseley, or even AJ Burnett.

Although I expect Andy Pettitte to come back into the rotation, and today’s news of an issue-free bullpen session was positive, Hughes still needs to be part of the rotation if the Yankees will win this year.

So, if Hughes is OK with getting postseason starts and innings, putting him over 180 for the season, why isn’t it OK for him to get a few more regular season innings? Important, down the stretch innings? *

*And for the record, major league innings in May and September are the same. There are no “extra stress” innings. Pitchers do not throw with less effort in May than they do in September, or less effort in the third inning than they do the seventh. Certain pitches in certain game situations might be thrown harder (AJ does this way too much) but pitchers generally throw with the same effort all the time. High stress innings is one of the biggest misnomers in baseball pitching theory.

That 34-inning increase violates the Verducci Effect and, according to the theory, would put Hughes in an “at risk” situation the following year. This is why the Yankees are looking to maybe skip Hughes or use the piggyback method. 

Before his last start, Hughes suffered miserably after he was skipped in a start around the All-Star break. He needs to pitch on a consistent, rotated basis and not be skipped or reduced. The Verducci effect has not been proven to be a precursor to injuries, and all the pitchers on this “at risk” list over the last two seasons have been major injury-free.

The injury to Stephen Strasburg showed that pitchers who are limited and coddled are not immune to injuries. Most pitchers go through arm problems and it’s not a given that if Hughes is limited, he will be immune to injury. The risk is always there.

But that risk and concern should have no bearing on the Yankees winning another World Series title this year. The idea of baseball is to win games and World Series titles.

Hughes has been durable all year and the Yankees need his innings down the stretch, especially with 10 of the last 14 games against the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox.

And if Hughes does have any arm issues next season, then worry about it next year. While he is going over his limit with the playoffs, another 12 regular season innings is not going to drastically affect his future. His career will not end if he throws 200 total innings this season including playoffs.

Winning another World Series title and ring should be the important thing right now.

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