Kuzul

It’s so obvious. I don’t know how all the phans in Philadelphia are missing it. 

The Braves are clearly the team to beat in the NL East. They have it all: pitching, power, superior defense, awesome bench. Everything’s there. 

Yet those phans, and most of the national media, just can’t see it.

You wanna talk pitching? Add one part Derek Lowe, one part Tommy Hanson, a handful of Tim Hudson and a pinch of Brandon Beachy (???) and you got a championship rotation, right? 

I mean, come on. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are schlubs compared to Lowe and Hanson.  And Roy Oswalt is no Tim Hudson, not even on his best day. Cole Hamels??? What has that guy ever done? 

I mean, besides that World Series MVP thing, he’s a really poor pitcher. Good ole “Double-B” Brandon Beachy makes Hamels look like a Little Leaguer. 

So, you can see when they’re lined up against one another which one the blatantly, obviously better rotation is.

Pitching isn’t the only aspect where the Bravos trump the Phils. Offensively, they are a far superior team as well. 

Just look at each team’s big power hitter: Dan Uggla versus Ryan Howard. I don’t care that Howard was the fastest player in the history of the game to hit 300 home runs. Uggla is better. 

Also, the Braves have Chipper Jones, who is just in the prime of his career. Jimmy Rollins is old. He’s five years younger than Chipper Jones, but he is still old and Chipper is not. 

And Jason Heyward is definitely the next Willie Mays. They even have the same nickname, which Heyward definitely earned, so it has to be true. 

Even though the Braves lineup has never really accomplished anything, they are far and away better than anything the Phils have.

I’m gonna come right out and say it: The Braves are the best defensive team in all of baseball, maybe even in the history of baseball. How can the Phillies compete with that? 

I’m surprised the entire team didn’t win all the Gold Gloves last year. In both leagues. 

Brooks Conrad has the hands of an angel, and there’s no way he could ever, EVER make an error. Forget last year when the Braves were 26th in the majors (out of 30) and the Phillies were eighth; this year will be different and defense will be one of the reasons the Braves take the division.

Last year didn’t really go our way. We didn’t have any magic finishes at the end of games (the Braves won 21 games in their last at-bat in 2010, leading the Majors), all our major contributors were injured constantly (unlike the Phillies), and we certainly didn’t get any extraordinary performances from our bench (Omar Infante).

But as you can see, this year will be ours. Stats and previous performances never mean a thing in baseball, so why even bother with them? 

It all comes down to which team’s fan base believes in it more. Here in the ATL we show up at every game, cheering and dancing and really just willing it to happen, so it will. 

Talent and experience be damned. This year belongs to the Braves. 

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Welcome to BoxPlus, where I give you just a little more than the box score does.

For the first eight innings of the 2011 season the Phillies seemed a little dead offensively and rusty defensively. 

Jimmy Rollins made me cringe in his first at-bat of the season when he swung at the first pitch and hit a weak ground out.  Ryan Howard got the Phillies first hit of the season with a line drive to right-center in the second inning.  Halladay looked good through his six innings with six strikeouts.  He was forced to throw an extra 18-plus pitches (about an inning’s worth) due to an error and a bad play by Valdez; no runs were scored as a result of those errors.  He did give up one manufactured earned run.

In the seventh, J.C. Romero failed in his designated role and allowed the sole left-handed batter he faced to single to left.  David Herndon then allowed that runner and two more to score in that inning.  The big hit was a Michael Bourne triple to center.

The home half of the seventh saw the Phillies get on the board with two runs.  Placido Polanco led off the inning with a walk.  Rollins saw some pitches and was able to single on a line drive to right.  Still with no outs, a passed ball with Howard up moved both runners up and Howard hit a sacrifice fly to deep center, scoring Polanco and moving Rollins to third.  Raul Ibanez then scored Rollins on a ground ball out to first.

Madsen had an uneventful eighth, posting two strike outs.  Baez also did a nice job in the ninth, giving up only a two-out single and, following a steal, an intentional walk.  He ended the inning when Angel Sanchez followed with a ground out.

The home half of the ninth is where all the magic happened. 

Rollins led off the inning with the first of a string of good, patient at-bats that resulted in a ground ball that split the first and second basemen for a single.  Ryan Howard exercised some patience and ran the count full before singling on a liner to center, moving Rollins to second.  Raul Ibanez (0-4, 1 RBI off a sacrifice fly) popped up for what would be the only out of the frame.  Rollins stole third with Francisco up and then Francisco sharply lined a single over the shortstops head, scoring Rollins and sending Howard to second. 

Carlos Ruiz then stepped up and nearly ended the game on a deep line drive into the left field corner that just barely went foul.  He would eventually single to left, loading the bases.  Wilson Valdez, who was filling in for the injured Chase Utley, went 2-4, garnering his second hit in the ninth after Francisco.  Valdez’s hit scored Howard to tie the game.  Pinch-hitter John Mayberry stepped in and worked the count to 2-2 before hitting the game-winning single just over the center-fielder’s outstretched glove.  The outfield was playing shallow in an attempt to stop the winning run from scoring.

For the Phillies: The bench went 2-3 and drove in the game-winning run.  The bullpen gave up three earned runs in three innings.  The Phillies were 6-7 (all singles) in the ninth inning.  Ben Francisco had the only Phillies error when he misjudged a fly ball.  Rollins, Howard and Valdez all went 2-4; Valdez had the sole extra-base hit for the Phillies with a double off of Myers.

For the Astros: Brett Myers gave up 3 hits and 2 runs in seven strong innings.  He had three walks and no strikeouts.  He also had two hits at the plate.  The Astros new closer has started the season with an 81.00 ERA.  

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Well, it looks like it may be a reality: Luis Castillo is reported close to signing a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. Quite frankly, I am not sure how I feel about this. One would assume that there are some pros and some cons so let’s take a look at some of them

One major pro is that he is most likely going to be very, very cheap. He is already guaranteed $6M from the NY Mets, so the Phillies would be able to sign him for his qualifying league minimum, approximately $485,000. Cheap labor of this caliber is always a good thing and of course it makes it a very low risk/high reward proposition for the Phillies. Added Bonus: how great would it be to watch Castillo play against the Mets while they are paying him? Does it get any better than that?

Another pro would be that Castillo was, at one point, a very good hitter. His last full uninjured season was as recent as 2009 and he managed a very respectable .302 avg, .387 OBP and 77 runs scored. He has a very low strike out rate which would help what is currently a very K-prone lineup. His ability to put the ball in play could come in handy on a team like the Phillies who put a lot of runners on base and often only need a ground ball out or sacrifice fly to score a run. Also, he can still run, swiping 23 bags in 2009. Whether or not he can regain that form remains to be seen, but for $485K, don’t you almost have to take that shot?

He was hurt most of 2010 so any numbers from that year may be skewed but I assure you they are not good. Also, you have to take into account he was a Met and quite frankly it really seems as though most of those guys, especially the veterans, just flat out gave up.  

Let’s throw in a con: Wilson Valdez won’t get the much-deserved shot he has earned at second base. Valdez has been on fire this spring playing nearly every day and hitting over .400. He is playing several positions defensively and has been really impressive at all of them. He has even played some outfield this spring and done a very fine job at it. I personally would be slightly upset if Valdez didn’t at least get the opportunity at the job. The only thing that scares me about Valdez is his propensity to hit into the double play.

Another con is no one really knows his clubhouse attitude. The Phillies are known to have one of the best clubhouses in all of baseball; just ask Cliff Lee. They have taken tremendous care in achieving this chemistry. When Pat Gillick took over the team in 2005 he made it a point of contention to trade away great talents that were disruptive clubhouse members and it’s a philosophy that appears to have really worked. There is a rumor that the Phillies grade clubhouse attitude in their scouting reports and very seriously consider that grade when deciding on a player. There are many who believe, myself among them, that this is the reason the Philles are as successful as they are, despite injuries, despite slumps, despite poor outings–the Phillies always endure.

How about a pro: he hits from both sides of the plate. He could offer a right-handed bat in what is considered a very heavily weighted left handed lineup. Similar to Shane Victorino, he hits about equally from both sides; with a career .298 as a right-handed batter and .294 as a left-handed batter. Given the fact that most of the teams in the NL East have adjusted their bullpens to deal with the Phillies left-handed attack, this could prove extremely valuable.

All in all I would have to say it’s a good move for the Phillies however it is totally dependent on what they will pay him. As Ruben Amaro has recently been quoted as saying the team is completely tapped out financially, my guess would be the only way he becomes a Phillie is at the bare minimum price. I would further assume that Castillo would take that. He is, after all, still earning his $6M from the Mets this season and he would be playing for a contender. So if it happens: Good for you Luis Castillo, and welcome to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Let me know what you think. Is signing Luis Castillo a good move? Do you have another pro or con? Leave a comment and let me know.

UPDATE:  It’s a done deal.  Minor league contract which minimizes financial damage if t doesn’t  work out.  Good move by Ruben Amaro as he has managed to put the team in a win/win situation.

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Everyone is gunning for the Phillies. 

A quick look at any sports news outlet and you will see a myriad of “doom and gloom” scenarios all pointing to why the Phillies won’t contend in 2011. 

You’ll read about Chase Utley’s injury and how the Phillies are doomed without him; how age will be their undoing and you’ll read a lot about Jimmy Rollins and how he has “seen better days” and that without him there is no way they can win. 

Well, I‘m here to tell you, don’t believe any of it.

The Philadelphia Phillies will win the NL East; they will win the National League Championship and they have the best chance of winning the World Series. In fact, they will have a better chance than who ever happens to win the American League Pennant (insert Boston Red Sox-sounding cough here).

Utley is an amazing player but he does not hold the fate of the Philadelphia Phillies in his hands…or his knees for that matter. He missed almost half of the 2010 season with a broken hand and yet the Phillies managed to finish with the best record in Major League Baseball. 

You can also add Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, and catcher Carlos Ruiz to the list of players who missed significant playing time in 2010. 

While backup catcher Brian Schneider managed to avoid the DL, he was virtually unplayable for a good two weeks when Ruiz was out, leaving the Phillies to rely on Dane Sardinha, a call-up from the minor leagues. All those injuries to all those players and still, the best record in baseball.

They were able to overcome these injuries for a very simple reason: the bench, and in particular, Wilson Valdez—who was a New York Mets throwaway picked up by the Phillies in the offseason prior to the start of the 2010 season. 

Valdez didn’t make the team initially, but when Rollins got hurt early in the season he was called up to replace him. Oddly, he was soon designated for assignment and after clearing waivers landed back on the Phillies’ minor-league affiliate. He was soon brought back and filled a huge void for the team for the remainder of the season. 

So far this spring Valdez is on fire, playing every day and hitting well above .300. He is the main reason the Phillies are not looking elsewhere to fill the void of an injured Utley. 

The main knock on Valdez is his propensity to hit into the double play. If he can manage to improve that aspect of his game he might qualify as one of the best bench players in baseball.

Yes, the Phillies are the oldest team in baseball. If you add the age of every player on the major-league roster and then divide that sum by 25 (number of roster spots) you will in fact have a higher number than any other team in baseball. 

Why? 

Most of these guys have proven that they can perform and there was no need to call up young talent from the system. 

Does that make their combined average age a negative or a positive? 

Well, you figure it out. Is the fact that they have a 31-year-old first basemen who is so good he manages to be among the league leaders in production every year a good thing or a bad thing? Sure, once these guys start to decline the age will become a factor, but at this particular juncture in time, this has not really happened.

Which brings us to Jimmy Rollins. 

There is no doubt about it, his numbers are falling rapidly. 

But why? Is it because of his age? 

I don’t think so and I watch every Phillies game, all year long.

What I see in Rollins is extremely poor decision making at the plate with poor at-bats. He swings at bad pitches, he swings early in the count, he seems to always be trying to hit the long ball and he flat-out refuses to walk. Pitchers aren’t getting him out, he’s getting himself out. 

Rollins actually started last season off on a tear, hitting over .350 when he injured himself. When he returned to the lineup it seemed as if he was trying to get all his production back at one time, typically on the first pitch. Unfortunately, this is only a problem Jimmy can fix. 

From what I have seen of him in spring training, it doesn’t look as though he is on the right path. I really don’t know how long he will last in 2011 if he cannot become a more disciplined, smarter hitter. The bright side is the team was without him for a majority of 2010 and, as mentioned above, they still managed the best record in all of baseball.

Another adage you’ll hear from the naysayers’ mouths refers to the loss of Jayson Werth and how ultimately he was the glue that held the team together and he was the key to the Phillies success and other nonsense. 

I guess no one bothered to look at Mr. Werth’s average with runners in scoring position (RISP). 

I did. It was .186. Werth came through with the all-important hit with a runner on second or third 19 times out of 100. 

As we know these hits almost always result in the true objective of the game—scoring runs—and .186 is a miserable number. 

The biggest factor in the Phillies’ offensive woes of 2010, besides the injuries, can be attributed to Werths’ poor RISP percentage. While he may be missed defensively, his production on offense should be fairly easy to make up. 

Despite Werth’s inability to come through with a run-scoring hit, the Phillies still had the best record in all of baseball? 

Most likely the Phillies will replace Werth with a platoon consisting of Ben Francisco, Ross Gload and John Mayberry. All three have had fantastic springs and should easily be able to adequately replace the .186 avg. with RISP brought to you by the good folks at Jayson Werth. Enjoy D.C. and your $126 million, Jay.

The addition of Cliff Lee clearly makes them a better team than they were last year.  And they only had ace Roy Oswalt for half of the season in 2010. No other team in the National League has made improvements as significant as the Phillies did by adding Lee. 

The mainstream media is pandering with their knocks on the Phiillies, but can you blame them?  

We all read the stories and ultimately that is their goal. I usually just think about last year when they had the…you know. So, if you’re still worried or if you still don’t believe the Phillies will have a more than successful year, I welcome your explanations of how and why.

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