Kuzul

SEATTLE MARINERS

Last Year: 61-101, fourth in AL West  

Manager: Eric Wedge

PROJECTED LINEUP 

C- Miguel Olivio (R) 

1B- Justin Smoak (S)

2B- Brendan Ryan (R) or Adam Kennedy (L)

3B- Chone Figgins (S) 

SS- Jack Wilson (R)

LF- Milton Bradley (S)

CF- Franklin Gutierrez (R)

RF- Ichiro Suzuki (L)

DH- Jack Cust (L)

The Mariners‘ offense ranked last in AVG, OBP, and SLG in 2010.

One of the major problems came from the DH position, and GM Jack Zduriencik signed Jack Cust to bring some power and OBP to the lineup. Cust’s power dropped in 2010, but his average did go up.

I expect his power and average to return to previous levels (25 home runs, .235/.370/.420).

Ichiro Suzuki remains the Mariners’ best offensive weapon, and one of the most consistent hitters in baseball. Ichiro will get his 200-plus hits with 6-10 home runs, but it is tough to predict whether he will have one of his monster years because of his reliance on balls put into play.

Franklin Gutierrez has shown some offensive production in years past, but his main contributions come with the glove. He will swipe 20 bags, add 15 home runs, and put up a predictable line of .260/.320/.400.

Milton Bradley remains an enigma at the plate despite his natural ability. His injuries and fragile mindset don’t keep him on the field that often, and I expect Michael Saunders to replace him in LF by the end of the year.

However, a solid year is not out of the question. 

The infield production remains an even larger question mark for this club. Justin Smoak, the main piece in the Cliff Lee deal, showed some real holes in his swing during his time in the majors in 2010.

I think his power and OBP will be fine this season, but it may take a year or two for his average to really improve. I see him hitting 20 home runs with a .240/.340/.410 line.

Brendan Ryan and Adam Kennedy don’t provide much offense at 2B, and Jack Wilson provides the same punch. I expect 12 to 15 home runs out of the three of them.

Chone Figgins had a rough first half at the plate in 2010. He was able to rebound to put up respectable numbers, and I think a switch to 3B might clear his head a bit. I see Figgins putting up a line of .280/.370/.350 and 40-plus stolen bases.

Miguel Olivo will hit approximately 15 home runs from the catcher position. However, Olivo does strike out in almost 30 percent of his ABs. 

The Mariners had the 10th best defense (UZR) in 2010. Safeco Field has an expansive outfield, and the Mariners have the players to cover it.

Ichiro is considered one of the best right fielders in baseball, and Franklin Gutierrez is one of the best in CF. Milton Bradley is an adequate defender in LF.

Justin Smoak anchors the infield, providing above-average defense at first. The Mariners are sure up the middle with Brendan Ryan and Adam Kennedy providing above-average defense at 2B and Jack Wilson at SS. Chone Figgins will move from 2B to his stronger defensive position at 3B.

At catcher, Miguel Olivo has one of the best arms behind the plate, but he struggles with his receiving. 

BENCH

OF- Michael Saunders (L) or Ryan Langerhans (L)

IF- Brendan Ryan (R) or Adam Kennedy (L)

1B/OF- Mike Carp (L) 

C- Adam Moore (R)

STARTING ROTATION

RHP- Felix Hernandez 

LHP- Jason Vargas 

RHP- Doug Fister 

LHP- Erik Bedard

RHP- Michael Pineda  

Felix Hernandez, an injury-rattled former All-Star, two soft-tossers and a rookie make up the Mariners’ rotation.

Hernandez, the 2010 AL Cy Young Award winner, anchors the staff. He throws two fastballs that average 94.6 MPH, a change-up that acts like a splitter and two very good breaking balls.

He has the whole package, and the only question is whether the offense will score enough for him to have a winning record.

Jason Vargas is a soft-tossing lefty who uses a lot of change-ups to keep hitters off balance. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who benefits from pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.

Doug Fister is the right-handed version of Vargas, and is expected to put up similar numbers. Both should average around 5 K/9 and 2 BB/9 and have an ERA in the mid-4’s. Fister and Vargas would be fine at the back of the rotation, but they shouldn’t be counted on to anchor the middle of the staff. 

I don’t think anyone knows what to expect from Erik Bedard this season.

He missed all of 2010, and only made 15 starts in 2008 and 2009. Bedard has said he feels like his old self.

If he pitches like his old self, Seattle could get some very good prospects during the year if they decide to trade him. Bedard throws a low-90s fastball, but he can strike out a hitter per inning with his devastating curveball.

Michael Pineda will be the fifth starter for the club, and I detail his season later in the preview.

BULLPEN

RHP- David Aardsma (2010 Closer; uncertain when he will return from hip surgery)

RHP- Brandon League (Closer)

RHP- Chris Ray

RHP- Dan Cortes 

LHP- Aaron Laffey  

RHP- Josh Leuke 

RHP- Jamey Wright 

LHP- Luke French 

David Aardsma had hip surgery in the offseason, and it’s unclear when he will be ready to pitch for the big league club. Brandon League will take over the closer spot, and might hang onto it if he pitches well.

Aardsma was the talk of trade rumors in the offseason, so if he comes back strong, he will be a candidate to be dealt during the summer.

League throws a hard two-seamer at 95.6 MPH with a good slider and splitter. He should average 7 K/9 innings, and a mid-3’s ERA. Dan Cortes, who throws in the mid-90s, will get a shot to be the primary set-up man for League.

Aaron Laffey will be the primary lefty coming out of the pen. Laffey relies on his 87 MPH fastball and good slider to get lefties out, but he doesn’t have spectacular numbers against them.

Chris Ray was signed on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. Ray still throws hard, but his 5 K/9 rate was very underwhelming.

Josh Lueke may get a shot to join the bullpen in his rookie season with the club.

Jamey Wright has a terrible career K/BB ratio, and will probably get mop-up work in the beginning of the season. Luke French will be the long reliever to start the year.

NOTABLE NON-ROSTER INVITEES

RHP- Chris Ray

RHP- Manny Delcarmen 

RHP- Jamey Wright

RHP- Denny Bautista 

RHP- Justin Miller 

LHP- Nate Robertson 

C- Josh Bard

IF- Adam Kennedy (L)

IF- Luis Rodriguez (S)

OF- Gabe Gross (L)

OF- Ryan Langerhans (L)

PROSPECTS TO WATCH

2B Dustin Ackley (L)

I don’t see anyone from this group having a breakout season, so I’ll mention two prospects who should have an impact.

Baseball America ranks Ackley as the best prospect in the Mariners organization. He isn’t great defensively at 2B, but many are impressed with his plate discipline. His power hasn’t come along yet, but the Mariners hope that will develop this year.

He should be in the majors by the end of the year.  

 Michael Pineda 

The 22-year-old Pineda is battling for a spot in the rotation right now, but it makes sense for him to start the season in AAA. Pineda is considered the Mariners’ top prospect, and he could use a little more seasoning in the minors.

His best pitch is a mid-90s sinking fastball, and he mixes it in with an improving slider and inconsistent changeup. The change makes him vulnerable to left-handed hitters, but I think he will impress in his starts to begin the season. 

PROJECTED FINISH – 4th in AL West 

Seattle isn’t going to contend this year, but 2011 will not be as terrible as 2010. The offense should be slightly improved, and the bullpen might have some bright spots.

GM Jack Zduriencik needs Erik Bedard to bounce back in order to get some more prospects and to help the rotation early on. While there is some upside to this club, the Mariners will probably finish with about 90 losses. 

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TAMPA BAY RAYS

Last Year: 96-66, 1st in AL East 

Manager: Joe Maddon 

PROJECTED LINEUP 

C—John Jaso (L)

1B—Dan Johnson (L) 

2B—Sean Rodriguez (R)

3B—Evan Longoria (R)

SS—Reid Brignac (L)

LF—Johnny Damon (L)

CF—BJ Upton (R)

RF—Ben Zobrist (S)

DH—Manny Ramirez (R)

Joe Maddon is known for the number of different lineups he utilizes, but the one above is the lineup you will see on a regular basis against right-handed pitchers. With the departures of Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett and Carlos Pena, the younger role players from 2010 will need to step up and contribute if the Rays are to contend.

GM Andrew Friedman signed veterans Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez to soften the blow. Damon and Ramirez are not the same hitters they once were, but the club needed some veteran leadership after the exits of aforementioned trio.

Jaso and Shoppach will platoon at catcher. Both of them get on base, but they aren’t dangerous in terms of power. Dan Johnson, who saw time as DH a lot towards the end of the 2010, will take over for Carlos Pena.

Johnson has power and gets on base, but strikes out too much to be a consistent hitter the Rays need at 1B. Sean Rodriguez will get most of the at bats at 2B. Expect 12-17 home runs and a .330 OBP.

Evan Longoria is the Rays’ best overall player. He steals some bases, gets on base and has plenty of power. Longoria’s slugging percentage was down from previous years, but that may have been due in part to his hamstring injury late in the season.

The Rays made the right move in trading Bartlett and installing Brignac as the starting SS. Brignac may not have the plate discipline that Bartlett possesses, but Brignac is younger and cheaper. BJ Upton cannot have a repeat of 2010 if the Rays want to return to the postseason.

Upton is one of the fastest players in baseball, but he has never fulfilled the promise that she showed in 2007 and 2008. He may benefit from a change in scenery, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes available if the Rays struggle.

The versatile Ben Zobrist struggled in 2010. All of Zobrist’s numbers decreased from 2009 to 2010, especially his slugging. I think 2009, and not 2010, was the aberration. However, Zobrist will be in the lineup a lot because of his versatility. He can play anywhere except for catcher, which gives Maddon the opportunity to allow the bench to contribute. Maddon is also not afraid to use a variety of pinch-hitters during the course of a game. 

The Rays have a strong defensive team. Longoria is one of the best at third, and Zobrist might be the best defensive outfielders in baseball. At catcher, Shoppach is considered better than Jaso, but Jaso calls a solid game behind the plate.

Brignac has a lot more range that Bartlett had at SS, and  Rodriguez is also above average at 2B. However, the infield will surely miss Pena at 1B. Dan Johnson is considered below average. Upton has great speed in CF, but I think he might play too shallow. He takes some bad routes on deep fly balls.

Johnny Damon is an adventure in LF, and might have the worst outfield arm in baseball. He should let Upton get balls in-between them. Upton has an absolute cannon in center. 

BENCH 

C—Kellly Shopach (R)

OF—Desmond Jennings (R) or Sam Fuld (R)

OF—DH—Matt Joyce (L)

IF—Elliot Johnson (S) or Felipe Lopez (S)

STARTING ROTATION 

LHP—David Price 

RHP—James Shields 

RHP—Wade Davis

RHP—Jeff Niemann

RHP—Jeremy Hellickson

The Rays starting rotation is the strongest component of the roster, and with the exception of Matt Garza, it remains intact from last year. David Price had a good year in 2010, and is clearly the ace of the staff. His 2.72 ERA was lower than it should have been, but Price is still only 26 and I expect him to improve on his K and BB rates that might lead him to the Cy Young.

James Shields is looking to rebound after a terrible 2010 season. Looking at Shields’s BABIP, it was 50 points higher than the league average. The combination of an increased number of home runs, high percentage of hits on balls put in play and a slight increase in number of walks led to his poor season. However, Shields’s high strikeout total shows he hasn’t lost any stuff, so I expect a shift back to his career numbers.

Shields is an important piece to this year’s team, and his performance should signal where the team is headed in the standings. Wade Davis is a solid No. 3 starter. He throws four pitches, and while he doesn’t do anything extremely well, he was able to leave many on base last year to keep his ERA just above 4. He needs to work on his K/BB ratio if he is to continue to improve.

Jeff Niemann is very similar to Davis. Both throw four quality pitches and have the similar K/9, BB/9 and HR allowed. Niemann should put up similar numbers in 2011, with his ERA somewhere in the 4.10-4.30 range.

The wild card in the Rays rotation is the Rays’ top pitching prospect, Jeremy Hellickson. He impressed in his spot starts last year with his low 90’s fastball and devastating change-up. While he is a fly ball pitcher, he negates that disadvantage with a very good K/BB ratio. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up as rookie of the year in the AL. 

BULLPEN

RHP—Kyle Farnsworth 

RHP—Joel Peralta

LHP—Jack McGee

RHP—Adam Russell  

RHP—Juan Cruz or Corey Wade 

RHP—Andy Sonnastine 

LHP—J.P. Howell (Injured: Back in April/May) 

The most changes the Rays endured this offseason occurred in the bullpen. Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Randy Choate and Chad Qualls all left via free agency. An important piece of the puzzle is J.P. Howell.

Howell was one of the more valuable lefties from 08 to 09, and he should be ready to return early in the season. Right now Kyle Farnsworth is the favorite to get the most save opportunities. Joe Maddon has reiterated that the team will use a bullpen by committee approach at closer for 2011. Farnsworth is a strikeout pitcher who does not have the best command, but should replace what Grant Balfour brought to the pen.  

Adam Russell, who was acquired from San Diego in the Jason Bartlett deal, has only thrown 54 innings in the big leagues. I do think he has great upside. He averages more than a K per inning, and gets a high percentage of his outs via the ground ball.

Lefty Jack McGee has the greatest upside out of the young pitchers. Because of his arm angle, McGee presents a difficult problem for left-handed hitters. He also throws hard enough to get his fair share of right-handed hitters out, (93.5 MPH) but he lacks great command.  He reminds me of BJ Ryan.

Joel Peralta pitched well for the Nationals last year, but he is one of those typical relievers that has a hard time remaining consistent year after year. Andy Sonnastine will be the long man in the pen and emergency starter. 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES 

IF—Felipe Lopez (S)

1B—Casey Kotchman (L)

OF—Chris Carter (L)

RHP—Juan Cruz 

RHP—Corey Wade 

BREAKOUT PLAYER—Jeremy Hellickson 

Stated in my reasons in the rotation preview. Hellickson will end up being the No.3 pitcher in the rotation by the end of the season.  

PROSPECT TO WATCH—Desmond Jennings 

Many in the Rays organization feel that Desmond Jennings is ready to take over in left field. I think it was a smart move to bring in veteran protection, in case Jennings struggles in spring training. He might make the team, but should stay in the minors for some more seasoning during the first couple of months. If the Rays struggle in the first half, expect Jennings to be the everyday left fielder.  

PROJECTED FINISH: Third in AL East 

The Rays should be competitive in the AL East, but they lost too many pieces to be considered a serious contender. Their rotation is strong enough to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, but the bullpen could be a disaster.

This should lead them finishing a few games behind the Yankees, and somewhere in the mid 80’s in terms of wins. 

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ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Last Year: 65-97, 5th in NL West 

Manager: Kirk Gibson

PROJECTED LINEUP

C- Miguel Montero (L)

1B- Juan Miranda (L)

2B- Kelly Johnson (L) 

3B- Melvin Mora (R)

SS- Stephen Drew (L)

LF- Xavier Nady (R)

CF- Chris Young (R)

RF- Justin Upton (R)

Preview

The D’backs lineup has a good amount of power, but the lineup struck out more than any other in 2010. Both numbers should decrease with the trade of Mark Reynolds, but there are other questions in this group.

Justin Upton has the most talent of anyone in the lineup, but he took a step back last season. He struck out 30 percent of the time in 2010, but his isolated power dropped.

I’m not alarmed by 2010, and he should bounce back to hit 25 home runs, steal 15-20 bases, and produce a line of .280/.365/.500.

Chris Young should put up similar power numbers as Upton. He doesn’t strikeout as much, but he doesn’t hit for as high an average. Look out for 25 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a line of .250/.330/.450.

Xavier Nady should bat sixth in the lineup, but he might get some playing time taken away by Brandon Allen. Nady struggled last season with the Cubs, and if he puts up similar numbers, Allen will start to take away at bats. 

Miguel Montero is a good bat at the catcher position. He has some power (expect 12-15 home runs), and should hit for a .270 average and produce a .340 OBP.

Juan Miranda will surprise some Arizona fans, and I detail his season later in the preview.

Kelly Johnson had one of the most surprising seasons in the majors after hitting 26 home runs and batting .284. He won’t match that season, but I believe he nets 20 home runs, 9-13 stolen bases, and a line of .275/.350/.455.

Stephen Drew is still one of the league’s better offensive shortstops. He produces 15-20 home runs and a line around .275/.340/.450.

Melvin Mora is the weak link in the lineup with his diminished bat speed. He is just a stop gap for the young third basemen they have coming up through the system. 

The Diamondbacks were the top ranked defense in UZR last season.

The defense made some errors, but they had the best range of any team in baseball. The infield defense is stellar.

Drew has become one of the better fielding shortstops in basbeball, and his double play partner, Johnson, had a phenomenal season at 2B with a 7.7 UZR rating.

Miranda is solid at first base, but the team will miss Reynolds at third base.

Mora had a negative 10.4 UZR rating last season.

Montero is below average behind the plate because of his poor blocking ability. Montero has a decent arm, but he allows too many passed balls.

Both Justin Upton and Chris Young are very good defenders at their positions, but  Nady is a below average outfielder in left field.

BENCH

IF/OF- Ryan Roberts (R) or IF- Tony Abreu (S) 

1B- Russell Branyan (L)

OF- Gerardo Parra (L) 

C- Henry Blanco (R)

IF/OF- Willie Bloomquist (R)

IF- Geoff Blum (S) (Will start season on DL)

STARTING ROTATION 

RHP- Ian Kennedy 

RHP- Daniel Hudson

LHP- Joe Saunders

RHP- Barry Enright

RHP- Aaron Heilman or RHP-Armando Galarraga

LHP- Zach Duke (Out until May)

Ian Kennedy will take the ball on Opening Day after being the D’Backs’ most consistent starter last season.

Kennedy uses an array of curveballs and changeups to compliment his 88-91 MPH he uses on the corners. He will show a below average slider, but his changeup and curveball are very good. He will strikeout close to eight per nine innings, while walking three per nine that should produce an ERA similar to his 2010 3.80.

Daniel Hudson’s performance after coming over from the White Sox was one of the more surprising stories during the second half of the season. Hudson averages 92.5 MPH on his fastball and he generates a lot of swing and misses on his slider and filthy changeup.

Don’t expect Hudson to replicate his 2.40 ERA, but his flyball rate is worry some in Arizona. He should maintain a 7.5 K/9 rate but his ERA should finish in the 3.90 range.

Joe Saunders is a solid number four starter on a contending team, and he seems out of place on a rebuilding club. Saunders does have below average strikeout numbers (4.89 K/9 in 2010), and his home rate is sure to increase in a full season in Arizona. He is a safe bet to walk 2.80 per nine innings, and pitch close to a 4.60 ERA.

Barry Enright, who will slot behind Saunders, pitched to a solid 3.91 ERA last season. He averages 89.3 MPH on his two and four seam fastballs and the rest of his repertoire includes a good slider, average curveball, and changeup. 

Enright had a very fortunate season by having an extremely high left on base percentage at 84, and a low BABIP at .248. The 20 home runs he allowed in 99 innings is a troubling number, so a 4.60 ERA, 6.00 K/9, and 2.50 BB/9 rates are what to expect from the number four starter.

Aaron Heilman will probably get the nod over Galarraga for the last spot in the rotation. 

Zach Duke broke his pitching hand, which should keep him on the DL until May. 

Heilman hasn’t started since 2005 and it will be interesting to see whether or not he can maintain his fastball for 100 pitches early in the season. His fastball will be probably average 90 MPH in the rotation, and he needs to throw his slider more to keep hitters off his changeup. 

BULLPEN

RHP- JJ Putz (Closer) 

RHP- Juan Gutierrez

RHP- David Hernandez

LHP- Joe Patterson 

RHP- Esmerling Vazquez

RHP- Aaron Heilman or RHP- Armando Galarraga 

RHP- Sam Demel or LHP- Mike Hampton 

The Diamondbacks had one of the worst bullpens in history last season and new GM, Kevin Towers, added two pieces this offseason to upgrade the staff. 

JJ Putz hasn’t closed since 2008, but Putz had a great 2010 season for the White Sox as a setup man. 

Putz throws averages 94 MPH on his fastball and mixes in a good slider and dominant splitter. He should strike out more than a hitter per inning, walking more than three per nine, and a 2.90 ERA.

David Hernandez, acquired from the Orioles in the Mark Reynolds deal, pitched showed better stuff after moving from the rotation to the bullpen.

He should strikeout close to 8.5 per nine, but his four walks per nine and poor home run rate should leave him with an era in the mid 4.00’s. 

The rest of the bullpen looks like it will face some of the same troubles this season.

Juan Gutierrez struggled giving up the long ball last season (13 Home Runs in 55 innings). He still has a lively fastball and good enough slider to cut that number in half, and pitch to a low 4.00 ERA.

Joe Patterson was taken in the Rule V draft, and will be the primary left-handed specialist. He posted great numbers against lefties in the Giants‘ farm system, including striking out more than eight per nine in AAA last season.

Esmeriling Vazquez has good strikeout numbers, but his terrible command will keep him out of high leverage situations. 

Armando Gallagraga looks to be the long man after struggling in the competition for the last spot in the rotation. I think Gibson and Towers would like a second southpaw in the pen, and Mike Hampton seems like the best bet. 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES 

LHP- Mike Hampton 

RHP- Micah Owings 

RHP- Brian Sweeney 

LHP- Clay Zavada 

1B- Russell Branyan (L)

IF- Cody Ransom (R)

OF- Willy Mo Pena (R)

BREAKOUT PLAYER- Juan Miranda 

I’ve always liked Miranda’s power, but he never was given an opportunity to showcase it with the Yankees.

GM Kevin Towers, who was a special assistant in the Yankees organization last season, liked what he saw in Miranda. He will strikeout more than 20 percent of the time, but he does get on base and he provides solid defense at first base.

I see Miranda hitting 20-25 home runs with a .275/.350/.490 line. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH- RHP Jarrod Parker 

Parker, a former D’Backs number first round pick in 2007, missed the entire 2010 season with Tommy John surgery.

Parker is considered a prospect who can become a number one type starter. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a sharp slider, changeup, and curveball.

I think Parker might get a shot at down the line for the D’Backs in September. 

PROJECTED FINISH- Fifth in NL West

The D’Backs lineup isn’t as strong as last year’s, and the bullpen looks like it will continue to struggle.

The rotation has talent, but it is hard to imagine Hudson and Enright as well as they did in 2010.

I think the offense will produce just as much power, but they should cut down on the strikeouts without Reynolds. I expect the club to improve a bit on its record, but a last place finish seems the most likely result for the club.

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Chicago White Sox

Last Year: 88-74, Second in AL Central 

Manager: Ozzie Guillen  

Projected Lineup

C—AJ Pierzynski (L) 

1B—Paul Konerko (R)

2B—Gordon Beckham (R)

3B—Brent Morel (R) 

SS—Alexi Ramirez (R)

LF—Juan Pierre (L)

CF—Alex Rios (R)

RF—Carlos Quentin (R)

DH—Adam Dunn (L)

This offseason, the White Sox signed Adam Dunn to give them the left-handed power the lineup was lacking for all of 2010. Last year, the White Sox offense was very inconsistent, and they relied heavily on Paul Konerko and Alex Rios for most of their offensive production.

Even with that pressure, Konerko may have had his best season last year, but if history provides us a guide, he has had trouble putting up those kind of productive years back to back. Personally, I think he will still be effective, but don’t expect much more than 30 home runs and a .360 OBP.

Gordan Beckham, on the other hand, really struggled last year, but I think he has too much talent to have a repeat of his dismal 2010. I might be stretching, but I think he will hit 20 home runs this year and add an OBP north of .350 as well.

Alexi Ramirez has remained consistent during his three years in the bigs. Chicago fans should expect more of the  15-21 home runs and a .280/.320/.420 stat line would not be a surprise.  

Brent Morel will start the season as the third baseman and Chicago will hope that the youngster can continue the progress shown last year when he split time between the AA and AAA levels.

As for their backstop, the Sox shouldn’t expect too much out of AJ Pierzynski, but he isn’t a bad No. 8 hitter and should hit 10 home runs. 

Their marquee acquisition, Adam Dunn, will provide plenty of power, but his OBP percentage did decline in 2010. I would expect that number to return back to the .390 range, especially now that there is less pressure on Dunn to produce in this lineup.

GM Kenny Williams’ gamble on Alex Rios paid off in 2010, as Rios produced one of his best seasons in a major league uniform. Rios will never be the power hitter that many envisioned, but he should thrive in the No. 2 hole.

Juan Pierre simply knows who he is and does it well. Pierre brings speed to the White Sox team, and expect him to combine with Rios to steal over 90 bases. Carlos Quentin still presents a dangerous power threat in the No. 6 hole and will hit up to 30 home runs.

Overall, the White Sox have a diverse and potent offense. 

Defensively, the White Sox had a tough year in 2010. The left side of the infield should be somewhat better if Brent Morel takes over as expected at 3B. I haven’t seen him play, but FanGraphs.com says he is above-average defensively, so we will see. In addition, Alexi Ramirez was the best defensive SS in 2010.

The right side isn’t as strong. Beckham is average at 2B, and Konerko has lost a lot of range at 1B. Adam Dunn might play some first, but no one should let him near a glove. AJ Pierzynski is a good receiver who calls a good game and throws an average number of runners out on the bases.

Both Juan Pierre and Alex Rios cover a lot of ground in the OF, but Carlos Quentin had some of the worst defensive metrics in the game and will need to be compensated for. 

Bench

C—Ramon Castro (R)

IF—Omar Vizquel (S)

UT—Mark Teahen (L)

OF—Lastings Milledge or IF/OF—Brent Lillibridge (R)

Starting Rotation

LHP—Mark Buehrle 

RHP—Gavin Floyd 

LHP—John Danks 

RHP—Edwin Jackson

RHP—Phillip Humber 

RHP—Jake Peavy (Slated to be on DL beginning of season) 

The White Sox rotation struggled last year and was eighth in the AL in terms of ERA.

Jake Peavy didn’t pitch well during the first half, and was eventually lost for the rest of the year when he tore a lat muscle. As a result, the White Sox find themselves without a true ace of the staff, but instead have a multitude of No. 2 and No. 3 starters. That said, they are a very consistent group who should deliver the same numbers as last year.

Buehrle will probably start on Opening Day. He is a dependable starter who will give 200 innings and post a high 3.00 to low 4.00 ERA, under five K/9 with two BB/9.

I really like what Gavin Floyd brings to the table. He mixes up four pitches: a low-90s fastball, two very good breaking balls and a decent changeup. I was encouraged by the increased number of grounders he induced and I think he might end up having the best year of any starter on the team. 

John Danks had the best year of any starter in 2010 on the team and many consider him the best starter the White Sox have. Danks also uses a four-pitch repertoire, employing a low-90s fastball, an 88-mph cutter, a very good changeup and a curveball. Watch for him to put up his typical numbers this season.

Edwin Jackson, acquired at the deadline, pitched very well for the White Sox after a shaky first half with the D’Backs. Jackson should have had a better year considering he had the highest K/9 and groundball rate as a starter for his career. Jackson seems to thrive in AL Central, and I expect him to have a better year in 2011.

Jake Peavy is the wild card. We know what Peavy has done in the past, but I don’t know how Peavy will respond to tearing that lat muscle in his shoulder. Peavy was showing some signs of decline, as his velocity has decreased in each of the last four years.

If he is healthy, I think he will put up decent numbers—possibly a high 3.80 ERA and almost eight K/9. The White Sox should be happy if they get more than 20 starts out of him.  

Finally, Phillip Humber will get the first few starts as the No. 5 starter in the rotation.  

Bullpen

LHP—Matt Thornton (Closer)

RHP—Jesse Crain

LHP—Chris Sale

RHP—Sergio Santos 

RHP—Tony Pena 

LHP—Will Ohman 

RHP—Jeffrey Marquez

The White Sox bullpen is a definite strength for this club, with everyone except Will Ohman able to get their fastball up into the mid-90s.

While Bobby Jenks has been the closer for the last six years, many believe that Matt Thornton was the best pitcher in the pen during his tenure. Thornton should have no problem assuming the closer’s role with his 96-mph fastball, which he featured over 90 percent of the time in 2010.

The Sox also picked up Jesse Crain from free agency to fill the void left by Jenks. Personally, I’ve never loved Crain. He certainly throws hard (94.8-mph on fastball), but I thought he fell in love with his slider too much last year and doesn’t have great command. 

Top prospect and No. 1 pick in 2010 Chris Sale will be in the bullpen taking over Thornton’s old role. He is destined to be a starter, but will pitch in the pen this year and might take over eventually as closer. He throws a nasty slider and can reach triple digits with his fastball. He could make a transition to the rotation this year, but my feeling is he stays in the bullpen.

Sergio Santos is another hard thrower who throws a good slider and changeup to complement his mid-90s fastball. Santos was much better against left-handed hitters and struggled versus right-handers.

Will Ohman is a solid left-handed specialist and will allow Guillen to use Sale anywhere he wants. Lastly, Tony Pena and Jeffrey Marquez will be the long men in the group.

Notable Non-Roster Invitees

RHP—Brian Bruney 

IF—Dallas McPhereson 

OF—Lastings Milledge 

Breakout Player: Gordon Beckham 

Prospect To Watch: Brent Morrel

Morel is above average defensively and is supposed to have great gap-to-gap power that should equate to a lot of extra-base hits. He won’t have much pressure batting last in a talented lineup and his defense will bring immediate value to the club. 

Projected Finish: First in AL Central 

This is the year for the White Sox.

Buehrle and Edwin Jackson are free agents and Paul Konerko isn’t getting any younger. If the starting pitching is consistent, I believe the Sox will win this close division race against the Twins and Tigers. I love the power arms they have coming out of the bullpen, and I think their lineup has the perfect mix of power and speed. 

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WASHINGTON NATIONALS 

Last Year: 69-93, 5th in NL East  

Manager: Jim Riggelman 

PROJECTED LINEUP 

C – Ivan Rodriguez (R) 

1B – Adam LaRoche (L)

2B – Danny Espinosa (S) 

3B – Ryan Zimmerman (R) 

SS – Ian Desmond (R)

LF/CF – Roger Bernadina (L)/Nyjer Morgan (L)/Rick Ankiel (L)/Mike Morse (R)

RF – Jayson Werth (R) 

The Nationals lineup should be able to put up decent offensive numbers, but the lineup will miss the power numbers that Adam Dunn provided.

Jayson Werth will match Dunn’s OBP, but he should fall short of Dunn’s 38 home runs in 2010. Expect Werth to hit 25 home runs with a .275/.370/.485 line.

The Nationals have not decided who will join Werth in the outfield, but whoever starts will not have a firm hold over the position. The only thing Nyjer Morgan proved in 2010 was that he is emotionally unstable. Roger Bernadina has speed (approximately 20 stolen bases), and the ability to hit 10 home runs if provided regular playing time. Rick Ankiel and Mike Morse have the best power numbers of the bunch, but both strike out too often to have a consistent batting average. Bernadina and Morse are the favorites to get the most playing time with Bernadina batting leadoff.

Ivan Rodriguez is getting old, but he should run into 5 home runs with a .260 average.    

Ryan Zimmerman will bat cleanup for the Nationals and provide additional right-handed power alongside Werth. Zimmerman put up consistent offensive numbers the last two seasons, and he should hit 27-32 home runs with a .300/.380/.515 line in 2011.

Adam LaRoche will try to provide some of the left-handed power at 1B that Dunn provided. LaRoche has hit 25 home runs for the last three years, and I project him putting up a similar number this year, but his average should dip to around .250 heading into Nationals park. Prospect Danny Espinosa, who is discussed below, will be a pleasant surprise this year. Ian Desmond looks poised for a good year batting in the two hole. He has good speed and his power numbers and OBP should increase steadily in 2011. Desmond will finish the season with 13-15 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a .280/.330/.425 line. 

The Nationals defense ranked 14th in UZR during the 2010 seasoun despite committing a NL-high 127 errors. Defenders like Ryan Zimmerman may commit some errors, but Zimmerman has the best range of any third basemen in the league. Ian Desmond also has some range at SS, but he commits too many errors on routine plays. Adam LaRoche had a good year at 1B in 2010, and is a significant upgrade over Adam Dunn. Pudge is still considered one of the best defensive catchers in the game, and he will be a great mentor to the young Wilson Ramos. Roger Bernadina and Nyjer Morgan would be the best defensive outfield to team with Jayson Werth, whose range is decreasing. Mike Morse and Rick Ankiel are both considered below average.  

BENCH

IF/OF – Jerry Hairston Jr (R)

IF – Alberto Gonzalez (R)

OF – Roger Bernadina (L)/Nyjer Morgan (L)/Rick Ankiel (L)/Mike Morse (R)

C – Wilson Ramos (R)

OF – Matt Stairs (L)   

STARTING ROTATION

RHP – Livan Hernandez

RHP – Jason Marquis 

LHP – John Lannan 

RHP – Jordan Zimmerman 

LHP – Tom Gorzelanny 

Livan Hernandez leads this ragtag group of starters into the 2011 season. Hernandez somehow had an ERA of 3.66 but his 4.76 xFIP tells a different story. His strikeout and groundball numbers didn’t improve, but he was able to keep his HR total down. Hernandez uses his experience and knowledge of hitters’ tendencies to get outs. He uses an 84 MPH fastball with a slow curveball, mediocre change and slider that do not strike much fear into opposing hitters. Hernandez will eat some precious innings for the Nationals, but don’t expect a repeat of those 2010 numbers.

Jason Marquis, who dealt with elbow problems for most of 2010, will slot into the number two spot in the rotation. Marquis is a contact pitcher with a high walk total who had been durable in years past. Like Hernandez, he will be able to eat innings for the club, but he will pitch to an unspectacular mid-four ERA. Marquis uses a little bit of everything including a 90 MPH sinking fastball, slider, curve, cutter and change-up. While none of them are considered above average, his slider would be considered his best pitch. 

John Lannan is another contact pitcher with few strikeouts (4.46/9 innings) and an unimpressive walk total (3.08/9). He uses the standard four pitches, with his change-up being his best pitch. Like Marquis, Lannan should pitch to a mid-fours ERA.

Zimmerman should pitch behind Lannan. I detail his season in the “Breakout Player” section below.

Tom Gorzelanny could have a decent season as the fifth man out of the rotation, but he has been extremely inconsistent throughout his years in the majors. Unlike most of the other starters, Gorzelanny has the ability to record strikeouts and pitch to both right- and left-handed hitters. Gorzelanny does struggle with his command, but his walk totals have not correlated with how well he has pitched during a given year. Gorzelanny won’t be making any All-Star teams, but he might be one of the better pitchers on the staff by the time the season ends. 

BULLPEN

RHP – Drew Storen (Closer) 

RHP – Tyler Clippard

LHP – Sean Burnett 

RHP – Henry Rodriguez 

LHP – Doug Slaten 

RHP – Todd Coffee   

RHP – Collin Balester or Craig Stammen 

Many of the Nationals pitchers in the bullpen put up career numbers in 2010 and other scouts don’t see them having the same years. I, on the other hand, feel like some of the group may surprise again.

Drew Storen will get an opportunity to close to begin the season. Storen throws a 93-96 MPH fastball, a very good slider and above average curveball. His stuff translates into closing, having 8.47 K/9, and is currently the best Nationals’ best option.

Tyler Clippard might get some save opportunities if Storen struggles early on. He has posted some impressive strikeout rates over the last two years, while overcoming a high walk total. Some aren’t as high on Clippard as I am, and I think he will establish himself as one of the better relievers in baseball.

Sean Burnett has established himself as an effective left-handed set-up man over the last two years. Burnett is tough on lefties with his 91 MPH fastball and tough slider, but can handle righties with his decent change. 

Henry Rodriguez, acquired from Oakland, averages 99 MPH on his fastball. Rodriguez might have some command problems, but he is a solid option in the sixth inning because of his strikeout ability.

Todd Coffee is another right-handed option in the middle innings who can get right-handed hitters out and provide some groundballs. Doug Slaten, who had a career year in 2010, is the other left-handed specialist. Slaten could be ticketed for a rough year after benefiting from a low BABIP last year. Colin Balester or Craig Stammen will battle it out in the spring for the long-reliever spot. 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES

RHP – Chad Gaudin 

RHP – Luis Atliano 

LHP – Matt Chico 

RHP – JD Martin 

RHP – Shairon Martis 

IF – Alex Cora (L)

OF – Laynce Nix (L)

OF – Matt Stairs (L)

OF – Johnathan Van Every (L)

BREAKOUT PLAYER- Jordan Zimmerman

Jordan Zimmerman was having a nice rookie season in 2009 until he was ticketed for Tommy John surgery in August. Zimmerman returned last year and strung together some impressive starts at the end of the season. He will turn out to be the Nationals’ best pitcher this season, but the Nationals will be cautious with his innings. Zimmerman features a mid-90s fastball, a plus slider, curve and average change up. He gets a lot of swings and misses on his breaking balls which should lead him to strikeout around 8 per 9 innings. Zimmerman has good command for a 24-year-old and should walk a little less than three per 9 innings. His xFIP should be somewhere in the low 4s translating into an ERA around 3.70-3.90. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH NOT NAMED BRYCE HARPER- 2B Danny Espinosa (S)

Espinosa should be a pleasant surprise to Nationals fans. Espinosa has some pop in his bat, and some are projecting him to hit 20 HRs this season. He has some speed, but he strikes out too much to hit for a high average. I say he hits 15 HRs, steals 20 and puts up a line close to .250/.320/.420. Espinosa came up as a shortstop, and should handle 2B very well. 

PROJECTED FINISH- 4th in NL East

The Nationals will be in a competitive race with the Mets to see who will finish last in the NL East. While the Nationals’ starting pitching is some of the worst in baseball, the offense will score runs and the bullpen has a chance to be effective. Certain players like Danny Espinosa will impress and should allow the Nationals to finish ahead of the Mets in the division and could entertain the possibility of a .500 season. If Nationals fans are lucky, they could hope to see Strasburg take the mound sometime late in the season. Hope is a dangerous word. 

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Cincinnati Reds 

Last Year: 91-71, First in NL Central 

Manager: Dusty Baker 

Projected Lineup

C- Ramon Hernandez (R)

1B- Joey Votto (L)

2B- Brandon Phillips (R) 

3B- Scott Roles (R)

SS- Paul Janish (R)

LF- Johnny Gomes (R)

CF- Drew Stubbs (R)

RF- Jay Bruce (L)

The Reds won the NL Central in large part because of a consistent lineup that finished in the top five of most major offensive categories. Joey Votto, the 2010 NL MVP, leads the way in the No. 3 spot in the lineup.

He has an amazing combination of hitting for power, average, plate discipline and speed. He will strikeout like most power hitters these days, but his 35 home runs, 15 stolen bases and .315/.410/.570 line will make up for it. Brandon Phillips, who will hit in front of Votto, knows how to handle the bat and provides good power for a second baseman.

He should hit 20 home runs with 15-20 stolen bases and a .275/.330/.440 line. Paul Janish will be playing SS and batting in front of the pitcher in this lineup. Janish does not do much with the bat, which should lead to Edgar Renteria splitting time with him at the position.

GM Walt Jockety was questioned frequently by the media after trading for Scott Rolen in 2009, but that move served the 2010 club very well. Rolen still hits for some power (15-20 home runs), and will provide a solid line around .290/.360/.470.

Jay Bruce provides additional left-handed power out of the No. 5 hole. Bruce struggled in his sophomore season in 2009, but rebounded to put up his best numbers in 2010. I expect an even bigger year from Bruce in 2011 by posting a .285/.360/.520 line and adding a little more than 30 home runs.

Drew Stubbs had a great first full season for the Reds in 2010 hitting out of the leadoff spot. He strikes out way too often for a leadoff hitter, but he does provide atypical power out of the spot. Stubbs should provide 30 stolen bases, 20 home runs, and a line of .260/.335/.440.

Johnny Gomes will start the season as the everyday left fielder, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fred Lewis or Chris Heisey get some playing time there. Gomes does provide some power, but not enough to justify a starting spot. Ramon Hernandez will get most of the time at the catchers position, and if he stays healthy enough, he should hit 10 home runs with a .260 average. Hannigan is more than a capable backup at the position.

The Reds were the fourth rated defense in terms of UZR and eight out of the nine starters are returning. The infield defense is stellar. Paul Janish is starting at SS because of the quality defense he provides.

Scott Rolen, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips are in the top five in UZR ratings at their respected positions. Ramon Hernandez is a good catcher who has an above average CS%. Jay Bruce was the Reds’ best defender where he put up the best UZR rating among all right fielders and second among all major league defenders. Drew Stubbs is an above average center fielder, but Johnny Gomes is a disaster in LF. Fred Lewis and Chirs Heisey would be significant upgrades over Gomes. 

Bench

IF- Miguel Cairo(R)

IF- Edgar Renteria (R)

OF- Chris Heisey (R)

C- Ryan Hanigan (R)

OF- Fred Lewis (L) or Jeremy Hermida (L)

Starting Rotation 

RHP- Edison Volquez

RHP- Bronson Arroyo

RHP- Homer Bailey

LHP- Travis Wood

RHP- Mike Leake

RHP Johnny Cueto (Will start season on DL with forearm tightness)

The Reds have a lot of depth in the rotation, and it will be needed to start the season. Johnny Cueto would have been the Opening Day starter, but he has experienced forearm tightness over the last few days that should lead him to start the season on the DL.

The scouting report on Cueto shows that he uses a 93 MPH fastball with a good slider, cutter and average change. He should be back sometime in the first half. Volquez will get the ball on Opening Day after coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2010. Volquez averages 93.7 MPH on his fastball while suing a good curveball and an excellent change-up. I see Volquez putting up numbers similar to his fantastic 2008 season, where he struck more than a hitter per inning and recording a 3.20 ERA.

Veteran Bronson Arroyo will start the season as the No. 2 starter. He has put up solid 3.80 ERAs over the last two years even though his xFIP is somewhere in the 4.60 range. Arroyo doesn’t have great stuff (88 MPH on fastball), but he uses an array of sliders, curveballs and change-ups to keep hitters off balance. I see him posting around a 4.00 ERA while striking out 5.5 per nine innings.  

Homer Bailey will slot behind Arroyo in the rotation. Bailey has had trouble staying healthy over the last few seasons, but he has shown glimpses of the starter many project him to be. He averages 92.8 MPH on his fastball and compliments it with a good slider, average curveball and splitter.

If Bailey can stay healthy, I see him putting up a low four ERA and striking out seven per nine innings. No. 4 starter, Travis Wood, is detailed in the breakout player section. Mike Leake will start the season as the fifth starter. Leake started last season in the Reds rotation after being drafted in 2009.  He pitched well in the beginning of the season, but it was obvious that he got tired and he ended up going on the DL with a fatigued shoulder.

Leake has been compared to Greg Maddux using an 89 MPH fastball with natural cutting movement with a good slider, cutter, change, and curveball. I’m not sure how many starts he will make with the club, but he should have around a 4.10 ERA with a 6 K/9 rate. 

Bullpen

RHP- Francisco Cordero (Closer)

RHP- Nick Masset

LHP- Aroldis Chapman

LHP- Bill Bray

RHP- Logan Ondrusik

RHP- Jared Burton

RHP- Carlos Fisher or LHP- Dontrelle Willis

The veteran, Francisco Cordero, struggled some in 2010. Cordero’s strikeout numbers have decreased over the last three years, which is a usual sign of decline. The velocity on his fastball and the movement on the slider are still there, and I feel that he will bounce back to striking out a hitter an inning.

Aroldis Chapman will be a weapon for the Reds in the bullpen. He is detailed under the Prospect to watch section. Nick Masset will be the primary right-handed setup option after having another nice season. Masset averages 94.7 MPH on his fastball and complements it with an average cutter, great curve and splitter. Look for Masset to repeat his strikeout and inning rate and walk 3.5 per nine innings. 

Logan Ondrusek isn’t a bad seventh inning option for the Reds. He will throw mostly fastballs and cutters with an occasional curveball. He has decent control and should improve on his strikeout rate this season. Ondrusek will also get his fair share of groundball outs.

Bray will be the primary left-handed specialist for the Reds. Bray can handle left-handed hitters, but he gave up some HRs because of his inconsistent slider. Jared Burton will pitch in the middle innings after spending most of 2010 in AAA. He uses mostly cutters, sliders and change-ups to induce grounballs and strike out seven per nine. Either Carlos Fisher or Dontrelle Willis will probably be the last member of the pitching staff. 

Notable Non Roster Invitees

LHP- Dontrelle Willis

RHP- Chad Reineke

C- Corkey Miller (R)

OF- Jeremy Hermeida (L)

Breakout Player- Travis Wood

Travis Wood pitched very well for the Reds in 17 starts last season, and I think he can continue that success this season. Wood averages 90 MPH on his fastball, and complements it with a cutter, change and curveball. Wood’s best pitch is his fastball, which looks like like a mid 90s fastball because of Wood’s motion. If Wood makes a full season’s worth of starts, I see him striking out almost eight per nine with a 3.40 ERA. 

Prospect To Watch- LHP Aroldis Chapman

This one was an easy one to predict. Chapman impressed in his brief stint with the big league club last season blowing away hitters with his 100 MPH fastball and nasty slider. Chapman has struggled with control but his strikeout rate will make up for it.

There are various scenarios that could play out for Chapman this season that include taking over the closer role or even being groomed for the rotation. It isn’t clear what he will be doing at the end of the season, but he will probably be excelling at it.

Projected Finish- First in NL Central

The Reds were the best this team in this division last year, and most of that team has returned this year. They have great depth in the rotation, a great defense and the lineup will score the most runs in the NL Central. The other teams have improved, but the Reds might have a better year in 2011 than 2010. 

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HOUSTON ASTROS

Last Year: 76-86, fourth in NL Central 

Manager: Brad Mills 

PROJECTED LINEUP

C- Humberto Quintero (R)

1B- Brett Wallace (L)

2B- Bill Hall (R) 

3B- Chris Johnson (R)

SS- Clint Barmes (R)

LF- Carlos Lee (R)

CF- Michael Bourn (L)

RF- Hunter Pence (R)

The Astros’ lineup was the worst in the NL last season, but the club should be improved with the acquisitions made in the middle infield. Bill Hall and Clint Barmes will provide power that the club desperately lacked at those positions. Bill Hall has 20 HR power, but he strikes out over 30 percent of the time. He should post a line of .240/.310/400. Clint Barmes should hit 10-15 HRs with a .260/.315/.400 line.

Those lines may not be that impressive, but they will be significant improvements. Brett Wallace will be key to this lineup, and I will break down his potential 2011 season later. Chris Johnson had a wonderful 90 games when the Astros benched Pedro Feliz and installed Johnson as the everyday third baseman.

Johnson should have a solid year, but his numbers were inflated by an abnormal .387 BABIP. His lack of plate discipline is also concerning, but I think he will hit 15-20 HRs with a .285/.315/.455 line. 

The lineup revolves around both corner outfielders, Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee, who will bat third and fourth respectively. Pence was the Astros’ best offensive player in 2010, and has been remarkably consistent since 2008. Pence is a sure bet to hit 25 HRs, steal 14-18 bases, and post a line around .280/.330/.470.

Carlos Lee had his worst offensive season in 2010, but that was due to an extremely unlucky .238 BABIP. His power has decreased over the last few years, but I expect Lee to bounce back to his old ways and hit 28 HRs with a .290/.350/.490 line.

Michael Bourn is the one of the most dangerous leadoff men in baseball because of his ability to steal bases at an absurd rate. Bourn complies an average .270/.350/.355 line, but he has the potential to steal upwards of 60 bases in a full season.

Humberto Quintero will bat eighth in the lineup, after Jason Castro tore his ACL a few weeks ago. He won’t provide much offense in this lineup, and he is considered a backup at best. 

The Astros finished in the bottom half of UZR rankings, and it is hard to see the team making many improvements. Michael Bourn is the club’s best defender and is considered the best defensive center fielder in baseball.

In the corners, Hunter Pence is an above average fielder in right, but left fielder Carlos Lee has some of the worst range of any outfielder in baseball. Humberto Quintero calls a great game behind the plate, and has recorded very good CS numbers. The infield defense may be the worst in baseball.

Clint Barmes has played well at SS in the past, but he hasn’t played more than 100 games there since 2006. Bill Hall can play most positions on the diamond, but his range at second base is below average. Chris Johnson really struggled at third base in 2010, committing 17 errors and having a negative nine UZR rating. Brett Wallace played well at first base in limited time, but scouts say he is below average at first base.

BENCH

IF- Tommy Manzella (R)

IF- Angel Sanchez (R)

OF- Jason Michaels (R)

C- JR Towles  (R)

OF- Jason Bourgeois (R) or Brian Bogusevic (L)

IF- Jeff Keppinger (R) (Will start year on DL with foot surgery) 

STARTING ROTATION 

RHP- Brett Myers

LHP- Wandy Rodriguez

RHP- Bud Norris 

LHP- JA Happ

RHP- Nelson Figueroa 

The best part of this lackluster Astros squad is the starting rotation. Ace Brett Myers had a career year for the Astros by cutting down on his BB and HR total. However, the most important change in 2010 was that Myers started using his mediocre fastball less (avg. 89.3 MPH), and throwing his slider and curveball more often.

Both were pitches were fantastic in 2010, but I don’t think he will be as effective in 2011. I expect an ERA in the high 3.85-4.00 range, 7 K per 9, and close to 3 BBs per 9 innings. Wandy Rodriguez got off to a terrible start in 2010, but still proved to be one of the more consistent starters in baseball.

Rodriguez does not have the greatest stuff (avg. 89.6 MPH), but he changes speeds well with his slow curve and decent change. He strikes out a good deal of hitters, averaging more than eight per nine innings over the last three years, and records a strong groundball rate.

Looking at his xFIP over the last three years, he is a safe bet for something around a  3.50 ERA. The 26-year-old Bud Norris has a lot of talent, and pitched much better than his final stat line would indicate. He was hurt by a high BABIP and a below average left on base percentage.

Norris has a 94 MPH fastball that he has trouble locating, but he uses a nasty slider to strikeout more than a hitter per inning. Norris will walk a litte more than four per nine innings, but he should have an ERA in the lower 4’s. 

JA Happ, acquired in the Roy Oswalt deal, has pitched well in the 60 major league games he has appeared in over the last few seasons. Happ hides the ball well, which makes his 89 MPH more explosive to hitters.

He compliments his fastball with an average slider, curveball and change. Happ will strike out seven per nine innings, but he does not have great command walking almost five per nine innings last year. Happ will pitch at an ERA around 4.40, but he could he has surprised before.

The fifth spot in the rotation comes down between veteran Nelson Figueroa and Jordan Lyles. Nelson Figueroa will probably get the first crack while Lyles starts the season in AAA. Figueroa is a soft tossing right-hander (avg. 88 MPH on fastball), who relies on his slider, curveball, and change-up to keep hitters off balance.

He can put up good strikeout numbers, and probably pitch to something like a 4.30 ERA. However, he will probably head to the bullpen to make room for Lyles at some point this season. 

BULLPEN

RHP- Brandon Lyon (Closer)

RHP- Wilton Lopez

LHP- Fernando Abad 

RHP- Mark Melancon 

RHP- Jeff Fulchino 

LHP- Ryan Rowalnd-Smith or LHP- Wesley Wright or LHP- Gustavo Chacin 

RHP- Alberto Arias or RHP- Aneury Rodriguez or RHP- Ernerio Del Rosario 

The bullpen will be a problem for the Astros this season. Brandon Lyon will start the year as the closer, but at best he is considered a setup man. He has only had one season with a WAR above 1.5, due in most part for his below average strikeout and walk rates. Lyon throws 90-92 with a good slider, curve and changeup, but he doesn’t have the dominant stuff to be a good closer in this league.

Wilton Lopez might be the best option for the Astros. He averages 92 on his sinking fastball and compliments it with a decent change and show-me slider. He should only strikeout 6.5 per nine, but his command and ability to get ground balls are unbelievable. He finished with a BB rate of 0.67/9.

Mark Melancon, acquired from the Yankees in the Lance Berkman deal, is another good option from the right side. He throws a 92-94 MPH with a very good curveball that should lead to him striking out a batter per inning and an above average grounball rate. 

The rest of the bullpen is up in the air. Fernando Abad, who will be the primary lefty, impressed in his 20 games last year. He throws a 89-91 MPH fastball with a curveball, and change, but hasn’t had enough major league innings to prove he can do it for the entire season.

Jeff Fulchino pitched very well in 2009, but he struggled with an elbow injury that rendered him ineffective for most of 2010. He throws hard, averages 93.8 MPH, and he has hard breaking slider and splitter. I don’t think he should be counted on to provide many good innings for this club.

The rest of the bullpen is still auditioning for roles in Spring Training and could be any combination of the pitchers listed above. My guess is Ryan Rowland-Smith and Anuery Rodriguez make the team. 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES 

LHP- Gustavo Chacin

IF- Anderson Hernandez (S)

KEY PLAYER- Brett Wallace

The Astros need Brett Wallace to develop into the 20 HR .300 hitter that many scouts have projected. Wallace struggled in 144 ABs with the Astros last season hitting .222 with 2 HRs and striking out 30 percent of the time. I don’t think Wallace is there yet, but he should hit 15 or so HRs with a .270/.330/.415. I don’t know about his power, but I do think he will eventually become a consistent .300 hitter in this league. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH- RHP- Jordan Lyles 

Baseball America rates Jordan Lyles as the Astros’ top prospect in 2011. Jordan Lyles had some success in the minors by controlling his 89-92 MPH two seam fastball and throws his four-seamer a little harder. His secondary stuff doesn’t isn’t supposed to wow anyone, but the curveball is a little better than a show-me pitch. He will throw a change to lefties, but his major league success will depend on how he locates his fastball. He should make his debut sometime this season. 

PROJECTED FINISH- fifth in NL Central

The Astros don’t have a good enough lineup or bullpen to compete in the division. The starting rotation will keep the team in games, but I can’t see a final record reaching .500. The organization should think about dealing Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez if many of the younger players don’t produce, because this organization needs to infuse some talented young prospects into this farm system. 

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