Kuzul

NEW YORK YANKEES 

Last Year: 95-67, second in AL East 

Manager: Joe Girardi 

PROJECTED LINEUP 

C- Russell Martin (R)

1B- Mark Teixeira (S)

2B- Robinson Cano (L)

3B- Alex Rodriguez (R) 

SS- Derek Jeter (R)

LF- Brett Gardner (L)

CF- Curtis Granderson (L)

RF- Nick Swisher (S) 

DH- Jorge Posada (S)

The Yankees lineup still had a great year, even when many of its stars had somewhat down.

Robinson Cano had an MVP caliber year in 2010, with a .381 OBP and .531 SLG. He is a star at 28, and will continue to produce at a high level.

A-Rod and Teixiera had down years in terms of batting average, but still were productive. I think Teixiera just had an atypical off year. A-Rod has come into the spring lighter and more flexible and might improve.

Expect Teixiera to have a better year, but A-Rod might put up the same numbers unless he gets more time at DH. Jeter struggled throughout the entire year, hitting more groundballs than ever (that is saying a lot). While Jeter improved his swing, I still think his best years are still behind him.

Granderson also really improved once Kevin Long fixed his swing in August. After that, Granderson went on a tear and he was the Yankees’ most consistent hitter in the playoffs. Gardner is a valuable player who sees a ton of pitches and gets on base.

Gardner stole 47 bases last year, a number that he can improve upon in 2011. Much was made of Nick Swisher’s resurgence in 2010, however that was not entirely true.

While his batting average went up, his OBP dropped from .371 to .350. I expect him to increase that total in 2011, which is a contract year.

Posada should improve on his numbers from 2010. He should benefit from the rest at DH. Russell Martin has struggled over the last two years, and I don’t expect him to return to his All-Star days. Don’t be surprised if Jesus Montero takes the starting job from him. 

The Yankees have a strong infield defense anchored by the left side of Teixiera and Cano. The range on the right side of the infield does present a problem. Jeter isn’t the same, but A-Rod might improve with his offseason conditioning. They do make all the plays in front of them.

Bill James considered Brett Gardner the best LF in baseball, and while he doesn’t take the best routes to the ball, his speed makes up for it.

Granderson doesn’t make the best reads either, but he does have very good range. Swisher is an average to below average RF. Martin is considered an above average catcher.    

BENCH 

C- Francisco Cervelli (R) (on DL for April)

C- Gustavo Molina (R)

OF- Andruw Jones (R)

IF -Eduardo Nunez (R)

IF- Eric Chavez (L) 

STARTING ROTATION 

LHP- CC Sabathia 

RHP- AJ Burnett 

RHP- Phil Hughes 

RHP- Ivan Nova 

RHP- Freddy Garcia 

The obvious weakness of this team is the starting pitching. It has been well documented how the Yankees failed to get Cliff Lee, and in turn screwed up their entire offseason plan. The SP market was so thin that Cashman even contacted Carl Pavano.

Sabathia is a horse, but has changed the way he has pitched over the last few years. Sabathia does not strike out as many hitters before his big contract. Sabathia has become a groundball inducing machine. Many have feared this trend, but Sabathia does not have many hard hit balls in play. I expect him to continue this success.  

The  key to the Yankees’ season is AJ Burnett. From what has been insinuated by Brian Cashman, Burnett was dealing with some off the field issues last year. That may have led to his disastrous season, but the fact remains that Burnett has always been a question mark.

Burnett’s season was not as bad as one might think. His control improved from 4.2 BB/9 to 3.76, and his XFIP was only 4.66 compared to his ERA of 5.26. Burnett may have just had an unlucky year.

Burnett lost his curveball last year, and never was able to record the amount of stirkeouts he was accustomed to and led to more balls put in play that were hits.

My guess is Burnett returns to the regular up-and-down pitcher he has always been, and not the disaster he was in 2010. After Burnett, the Yankees have some real question marks. 

Phil Hughes had a very good first half in 2010 and struggled after the All-Star break. Expect Hughes to have a better overall season. Hughes looked tired in the second half, and did not have as many swing and misses on his fastball.

After July, the only time I ever saw that fastball have life like in the first half was against the Twins in the ALDS.

Ivan Nova will slot behind Hughes. He features a 92-95 moving fastball, new slider, good curve, and decent changeup. He doesn’t have strikeout stuff, but he should average six every nine innings, and post an ERA around 4.30.   

Freddy Garcia is the favorite to win the No. 5 spot. Garcia has only made 51 starts over the last four years, and he is essentially a junkballer now. He only throws his fastball 30 percent of the time, and it is usually hit hard. If Garcia struggles, expect Colon to get the first shot at his spot in the rotation. 

BULLPEN

RHP- Mariano Rivera (Closer) 

RHP- Rafael Soriano 

LHP- Boone Logan 

LHP- Pedro Feliciano (Will start season on DL)  

RHP- David Robertson

RHP- Joba Chamberlain 

RHP- Bartolo Colon

RHP- Luis Ayala or LHP- Steve Garrison 

When healthy, the Yankees might have the best bullpen in baseball, and it will need to be. Mariano still hasn’t slowed down in his 40s, and Rafael Soriano might have been the best closer in baseball last year.

Both of their strikeout rates have decreased last season, but Rivera sometimes has random years where he does not record as many strikeouts.

Soriano developed a cutter last season to mix in with his 93 mph fastball and good slider. They have balance from both sides with Joba and Robertson on the right, and Feliciano and Logan on the left.

Logan learned to harness his control and became an effective setup man against left-handed hitters. Girardi loves to mix and match, and this bullpen will be perfect for his excessive managing.

Much has been made of Joba’s “poor” 2010, but that was overblown by the press. His ERA was inflated to a few very poor outings. His K/BB ratio was still an impressive 3.5, and his XFIP was 3.30.

Joba started throwing in the mid 90’s again, and his slider still had very good break down and away from a right-handed batter. Robertson will strike out more than a hitter per inning with his low 90’s fastball and very good 12-6 curveball. 

Colon will be a swingman who could give some innings if a starter does not go deep in a game. Ayala and Garrison will fill a roster spot until Feliciano comes back from the DL.  

NOTABLE NON-ROSTER INVITEES 

RHP- Freddy Garcia

RHP- Bartolo Colon

RHP- Mark Prior 

RHP- Luis Ayala 

C- Gustavo Molina (R)

IF- Ronnie Belliard (R)

IF- Eric Chavez (L)  

BREAKOUT PLAYER – Jesus Montero 

Here is the Yankees catching situation: Russell Martin is coming off of knee surgery, Posada has been relegated to DH duties, and Francisco Cervelli just isn’t very good. The other two Yankee catching prospects, Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez, aren’t ready yet.

I see Cervelli struggling again, and Montero having a hot start to begin the season in AAA. I expect Montero to be with the club in June.

There is no question Montero can hit, but the jury is still out on whether he can handle a pitching staff. No matter the question mark, there is no way he could have been as bad as Posada was last year. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH – RHP Andrew Brackman 

Banuelos got much of the attention this spring but I think Andrew Brackman may help this team some time this year. Brackman was the Yankees’ first round pick in 2007. He missed 2008 with Tommy John surgery, struggled with his command in 2009, and bounced back in 2010.

Many have said he looked great in camp. Let’s see what happens in the minors, and if he performs well, there might be a job for him. 

PROJECTED FINISH: Second in AL East 

The Yankees just don’t have the starting pitching to take the division from the Red Sox. Cashman will be on the phone this summer trying to acquire another starter, and the Yankees have the prospects to acquire a big time pitcher.

I just don’t know if one will be out there. If the Cardinals fall out of the race early, I could see Chris Carpenter becoming available.

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MILWAUKEE BREWERS 

Last Year: 77-85, 3rd in NL Central 

Manager: Ron Roenicke

PROJECTED LINEUP

C – Jonathan Lucroy (R)

1B – Prince Fielder (L)

2B – Rickie Weeks (R) 

3B – Casey McGehee (R)

SS – Yuniesky Betancourt (R)

LF – Ryan Braun (R)

CF – Carlos Gomez (R)

RF – Corey Hart (R)

The Brewers have one of the NL’s best offenses, but their bottom of the lineup could pose some problems. The top five hitters in the lineup provide a great combination of OBP, power, and a decent average.  

Fielder is the only left-handed hitter in the lineup and the lineup’s best power hitter. Fielder had one of his least productive seasons in 2010, but he should produce big-time numbers during his contract year with 40-plus home runs while posting a .285/.410/.550 line.

Weeks won’t match the 29 home runs he put up last season, but he should net 15 stolen bases and hit 20 home runs out of the leadoff spot with a solid .260/.360/.450 line.

Betancourt can provide some 10-plus home runs but he is infamously known as a player who has a hard time reaching base.

McGehee is an above-average option at 3B in the number-five hole where he should provide 20 home runs while batting .280. 

Ryan Braun will bat third in the lineup in front of Fielder. Braun is the perfect right-handed compliment to Fielder because he hits for a higher average and has a knack for getting on base. Braun will provide 15-20 stolen bases and 30 home runs with a .310/.380/.560 line.

Hart shouldn’t be counted on to provide 32 home runs, but he is a 20-plus HR hitter who should put up similar numbers to McGehee with some more stolen bases.

Along with Betancourt, Gomez and Lucroy will round out the bottom of the order. This part of the lineup lacks a lot of punch, and Doug Melvin should be checking the market for to replace one of the three.

Gomez should provide 30 stolen bases in a full season, but he proved that he can’t hit higher than a .260 in a season. I don’t know what to make of Lucroy, but I would say he is a capable of hitting 10 home runs and hitting close to .260. 

The Brewers defense ranked 15th in UZR (ultimate zone ratings) last season, but the overall defense will struggle with the loss of Alcides Escobar.

The infield defense has very little range. Fielder and McGehee are at the bottom of their positions in terms of UZR, and Betancourt is considered one of the worst shortstops in baseball. Weeks does have good range at 2B. Lucroy had trouble with passed balls and blocking the plate, but he does have one of the better arms at catcher. 

Gomez is the the Brewers best defender in center field, but Hart and Braun are below-average in the corners. 

BENCH

IF – Craig Counsell (L)

IF – Luis Cruz (R)

OF/1B – Mark Kotsay (L) 

C – Wil Nieves  (R)

OF – Brandon Boggs (S) or OF- Chris Dickerson (L)

STARTING ROTATION 

RHP – Zack Greinke (Will miss first three starts with broken rib)

RHP – Yovani Gallardo 

LHP – Randy Wolf 

RHP – Shaun Marcum 

LHP – Chris Naverson 

RHP – Wily Peralta 

The Brewers rotation struggled in 2010, but the acquisitions of Greinke and Marcum make this a formidable rotation.

Greinke will start the year on the DL with a broken rib, but he should only miss his first three starts of the season. He didn’t repeat his 2009 Cy Young numbers in 2010, but he is still one of baseball’s batter starters with a 92-95 mph moving fastball, a hard breaking slider, slow curve and decent changeup. He has excellent command of all his pitches, and he should strike out close to a hitter an inning in the National League.

The acquisition of Greinke takes some pressure off of Gallardo, the Brewers’ ace the last two seasons. Gallardo will strike out a hitter an inning with a low 90s fastball, great slider, curve and “show me” change. I project him posting a 3.20-3.40 ERA. Gallardo may not be talked about as some of the other young pitchers in the league, but he has the potential to be a perennial Cy Young winner. 

The Brewers signed Wolf last offseason to pitch behind Gallardo, but he is much better suited to do that in the middle of the rotation. Wolf doesn’t have the best stuff, but he will throw 200 innings with an ERA around 4.10 using a lot of slow curves, changeups and sliders to compliment his below-average 88 mph fastball. He should have a strikeout rate of 6.5 per 9 innings, and record walks about three per nine because of his tendency to nibble at the corners. 

Marcum, who will slot behind Wolf, will give the Brewers much needed depth in the rotation.

He doesn’ have explosive stuff, but his changeup is one of the best in baseball. Despite the negligible discrepancy between his change and fastball, 81 mph to 87 mph, its downward movement makes it a tough pitch to handle.

Marcum should excel in the shift from the AL East to the NL Central, and post a 3.30 ERA with a 7.5 K/9 and 2.20 BB/9 rates.

Naverson will be the Brewers’ fifth starter when the rotation is at full strength. He is a lot like Wolf in that he uses an array of off-speed pitches to work off his 88-mph fastball. He has recorded strong strikeout rates for a soft-tossing lefty, 7.35 K/9 in 2010, and his 4.20 xFIP indicates he was the victim of some tough luck last season.  Peralta will start in Greinke’s place for the first few weeks of the season. 

BULLPEN

RHP – John Axford (Closer)

RHP – LaTroy Hawkins 

RHP – Takashi Saito 

LHP – Zach Braddock  

RHP – Kameron Loe 

LHP – Manny Parra

RHP – Sean Green  

The bullpen struggled at times for the Brewers in 2010, but has the potential to be a considerable strength this season.

Axford took over the ninth-inning duties after Trevor Hoffman’s early-season implosion. He throws a 95 mph fastball, with an outstanding slider and impressive curveball that allows him to record more than a strikeout per inning. He has had serious command problems in the minors, but his 2010 BB total was the best of his career.

The 41-year-old Saito will be the primary setup man for Axford, throwing a 91-mph fastball with a tight slider and decent curveball. He will put up great strikeout numbers (more than a K per inning) with a decent walk rate, but it remains to be seen if he can hold up for the entire season.  

The veteran Hawkins missed most of the 2010 season with a right shoulder injury. Hawkins can be a valuable weapon from the right side because of his ability to get groundballs. 

Braddock will be the primary left-handed specialist after pitching well last year during his rookie campaign. Braddock features a 93-mph fastball and a sharp slider. His ability to strike out left-handed hitters will be a valuable weapon in the later innings.

Loe is a right-handed groundball specialist who will pitch the middle innings for the Brewers. While he has struggled as a starter in the bigs, he has had success as a reliever in three different seasons.

Green will fill the same role as Loe, but the sidearmer should used primarily against right-handed hitters.

Former starter Parra will be used primarly out of long relief. He may get a few spot starts along the way in 2011.

NOTABLE NON-ROSTER INVITEES 

RHP – Mark DiFelice 

OF – Jeremy Reed (L)

KEY PLAYER – Shaun Marcum 

Marcum’s shoulder tightness has been a concern this spring training. A lot of scouts have been concerned about his velocity—86 mph in spring training—but that number isn’t far from his average velocity in 2010. If Marcum goes down for an extended period of time, the Brewers don’t have the pitching depth to stay afloat in the division race. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH – RHP Wily Peralta 

The 21-year-old Peralta will start the season as the fifth starter until Greinke returns from the DL, even though he has never pitched above Double-A. He features a mid 90s fastball with a sharp slider and decent changeup. Peralta dominated rookie and Single-A ball, but his strikeout numbers dropped all the way to 6.43 K/10 in Double-A.

If Narverson struggles early in the season, Peralta has the chance to stick in the rotation when Greinke does return. 

PROJECTED FINISH – 2nd in NL Central

General Manager Doug Melvin decided to go for the pennant this offseason with Fielder entering his final year before free agency. The Brewers will make a run at this division because of the lineup’s power and strong starting rotation. If I were Doug Melvin, I would seriously consider making a run at a veteran SS or C by the deadline.

Right now I see the Brewers falling short of the division, but making a strong run at the Wild Card.

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Last Year: 81-81, Third in AL Central 

Manager: Jim Leyland 

PROJECTED LINEUP 

C- Alex Avila (L)

1B- Miguel Cabrera (R)

2B- Will Rhymes (L)

3B- Brandon Inge (R)

SS- Jhonny Peralta (R)

LF- Ryan Rayburn (R)

CF- Austin Jackson (R)

RF- Magglio Ordonez (R)

DH- Victor Martinez (S)

2B- Carlos Guillen (S) (start season on DL)

The Tigers upgraded their offense with the addition of Victor Martinez. Martinez allows the Tigers to have a full time DH versus lefties and allows the DH to be a spot for starters to get regular rest against righties.

Martinez gives the Tigers a little more balance in the lineup and power from the left side of the plate. This move allows Alex Avila to catch versus left-handed starters where he has some power. Avila has also shown great plate discipline, an asset the Tigers need.

There isn’t much to say about Miguel Cabrera. He is one of the best hitters in the game. Expected stat line: .320/.400/.570 with more than 35 home runs.

Carlos Guillen is expected to play at 2B when he returns from the DL. Guillen will provide some power and decent run production from both sides of the plate. The question remains whether or not he will stay healthy. Will Rhymes will play 2B until he is ready. 

The left side of the infield will provide decent production from the lower half of the lineup. Peralta will provide solid production from the shortstop position. He should hit in the range of .260/.320/.410 with 15-20 home runs.

Brandon Inge is very inconsistent at the plate. He will provide 15-20 home runs, but he strikes out way too often to be counted on as consistent.

Ryan Raburn will start the season as the primary LF, but if he struggles, Brennan Boesch could supplant him. Boesch really struggled during the second half of 2010, and the versatile Raburn eventually took over the starting job.

Austin Jackson had a nice rookie  season, but he had too many strikeouts for a leadoff hitter. If he wants to justify the strikeout, he will need to hit for more power.

Magglio Ordonez doesn’t have the power he once did, but he gets on base and hits for a high average.  

The Tigers will make some errors, but the team does possess above average range in the field. Austin Jackson is the best defensive player on the team, and he needs to cover a lot of ground playing CF in Comerica Park.

While Ordonez had struggled in RF before 2010, he had a nice season last year. He didn’t play there everyday, and I think that will be a good formula for him in 2011.

Raburn is average in the OF, but he is slightly above average at LF. Miguel Cabrera is one of the weakest defensive players on Detroit’s lineup. He will get his opportunity to DH, but Martinez isn’t very good at 1B either.

Martinez is also one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball, but he will only be behind the plate when the Tigers are facing a left-handed pitcher.

Guillen does not have much range at 2B, so the right side of the infield will be compromised. The left side is stronger.

Brandon Inge is one of the better third basemen in baseball, and Peralta is average as SS. (I never understood why Peralta was moved from SS in Cleveland. He always had a better UZR there than Asdrubal Cabrera.) Avila is a sold receiver behind the plate. 

BENCH

OF- Brennan Boesch (L)

IF- Ramon Santiago (S)

IF/OF- Don Kelly (L)

OF- Casper Wells (R)

STARTING ROTATION

RHP- Justin Verlander 

RHP- Max Scherzer 

RHP- Rick Porcello

RHP- Brad Penny 

LHP- Phil Coke 

The starting rotation is the key to the Tigers’ success this season. In particular whether or not the bottom half of the rotation can be consistent enough for the Tigers to win.

Justin Verlander leads the Tigers’ staff, and he is still one of the best in baseball. Verlander throws hard (95.4 MPH) with three other above average pitches (change, curve and slider). Watch out for another consistent year from Verlander.

Max Scherzer did not pitch well to begin the season last year, but he was absolutely dominant by the end of the season. Scherzer doesn’t throw as hard as Verlander (93.1), but I think he will put up very similar numbers this season.

While Scherzer lost some velocity last year, he made up for it my mixing in more of his slider and change-up with great success. Verlander and Scherezer should make for a great 1-2 punch. 

Rick Porcello might be the most important player on this Tigers team. There is this perception among the national media (I’m looking at you, Karl Ravech) that Porcello is this “young gun” who blows people away with a 98 MPH fastball. That couldn’t be further from the case. 

Porcello is a sinkerballer who relies on fielders. In his first two seasons, he averaged under five K/9. At first glance, it seems like Porcello really took a step back in his sophomore season.

By looking at advanced stats, both years were surprisingly similar. Porcello was lucky in 2009 and extremely unlucky in 2010 in terms of BABIP and runners left on base. By averages, I expect him to be somewhere in the middle this year.

I did notice that he threw more sliders in 2010 and not as many fastballs. That may have led to an increase in fly balls. Porcello should get back to his sinking fastball, because the increase in sliders did not get his K rate up. A good year from Porcello could take pressure off of injury prone Penny and unproven Coke. 

Brad Penny will fill in the No. 4 spot in the rotation. Penny only made nine starts last year due to injury, but it seemed like he converted to the Dave Duncan style of pitching while in St. Louis.

Penny has never been a strikeout pitcher, and he seems to have embraced that the last few years in the number of groundouts he has recorded, which has increased with the use of his new splitter.

He did struggle in his only stint in the AL when he was with Boston, so I am skeptical of him pitching that well in 2011. He should be helped by a big ballpark.

Coke will be the fifth starter after being in the bullpen for the last two years with the Yankees and Tigers. I don’t think he will succeed like CJ Wilson last year, because he does not have the vast repertoire of pitches that Wilson has.

He never was a top prospect as a starter in the Yankee system, and he made the majors by getting a jump in velocity when he made the switch to bullpen. I might be wrong, but I think he will end up in the bullpen by year’s end. 

BULLPEN

RHP- Jose Valverde (Closer)

RHP- Joaquin Benoit

RHP- Ryan Perry

LHP- Daniel Schlereth 

LHP- Brad Thomas 

RHP- Joel Zumaya (will start season on DL)

RHP- Brayan Villareal 

RHP- Enrique Gonzalez 

The bullpen is anchored by closer Jose Valverde and newly signed Joaquin Benoit. Benoit was signed to a steep contract due to the fact Valverde is a free agent next year, and I think he will eventually assume the closer’s role. For now, however, Valverde is closing and should put up another solid season.

I am interested to see if Valverde’s velocity dips after using his splitter more than 50 percent of the time last year (fastball velocity in 2010 was 95.2MPH). Benoit came back from surgery last year throwing harder than ever.

If his velocity stays the same, he should pitch at the same level in 2011 (94.1 MPH). He has a good slider and a devastating change that makes him tough to hit from both sides of the plate. 

Ryan Perry is another solid right-handed option out of the pen. He throws harder than Benoit, but his secondary pitches aren’t as strong and neither is his control. Daniel Schlereth and Brad Thomas come from the left side.

Schlereth will get a lot of strikeouts, but he will walk a fair share too. Thomas is more of a long reliever, but he will get some lefties out. He has a terrible K/BB ratio and his ERA was a fluke in 2010.

Joel Zumaya will pitch well if healthy, but we may never see that.  He throws harder than anyone else in baseball, but that might be why he is injured so often. I don’t know much about Villareal, but he would strikeout a hitter per inning when he would start in the minors.

Gonzalez is a journey man reliever who should be the long man/mop-up reliever. 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES

LHP- John Bale 

RHP- Enrique Gonzalez 

LHP- Fu-Te Ni

C- Omir Santos 

KEY PLAYER– Rick Porcello 

PROSPECT TO WATCH- LHP Andy Oliver 

Oliver was called up from AA last year, and he struggled in his five starts with the big club in 2010. He will start this season in AAA, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes it back to the majors some times this season.

If Coke struggles in the rotation, Oliver would be the one to take his spot. Oliver throws a fastball from 92-94 with a good slider and changeup. He needs better control to succeed at major league level, but he will get better in his second season of pro ball. 

PROJECTED FINISH– Third in AL Central

The Tigers have a good team, but I just don’t know whether it is enough to pass both the White Sox and the Twins. The back end of the starting rotation is questionable, and I don’t think the lineup has enough around Martinez and Cabrera.

Everyone in the lineup besides Ordonez strike out way too much. I could be wrong, but I see them finishing right behind the Twins. 

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FLORIDA MARLINS 

Last Year: 80-82, 3rd in NL East  

Manager: Edwin Rodriguez

PROJECTED LINEUP 

C- John Buck (R) 

1B- Gabby Sanchez (R)

2B- Omar Infante (R)

3B- Donnie Murphy (R) 

SS- Hanley Ramirez (R)

LF- Logan Morrison (L)

CF- Chris Coghlan (L)

RF- Matt Stanton (R)

The Marlins definetly have some talent in this lineup, but the team will miss Dan Uggla’s power. Hanley Ramirez is still the most dangerous player on the team. Ramirez still has 25 home run power and the ability to hit over .300 and steal 30 plus bases. The 27-year-old Gaby Sanchez will be moved to the fifth spot in the lineup though he is an ideal sixth place hitter. Sanchez’s numbers are solid for any position on the field but are below average for a first baseman. Sanchez has 20 home run power and should put up a solid line of .275/.345/.455. The versatile Omar Infante will bat in the two hole and should hit .300 with 7-10 home runs and will be holding the spot for some of the franchise’s prospects. Donnie Murphy will got the shot at 3B to start the season, but I don’t envision him there for very long. My bet is that Dominguez gets called up some time this year. 

Marlins fans are excited to see what right fielder Mike Stanton can do with a full season in the majors. In 396 at-bats, Stanton hit 22 home runs, and I think he will hit anywhere from 35-40 home runs with with a .260/.340/.550 line. Stanton will strike out 30 percent of the time, but his power is worth it. Logan Morrison will bat in the lower half of the lineup after getting more than 200 ABs in the second half of last season. Check out Morrison’s projected line in the breakout player section. Chris Coghlan will bat leadoff for the club after hurting his knee in a pie celebration last season. Coghlan struggled in his sophomore season after in impressive rookie campaign, and many are predicting numbers in between the two seasons. A .295/.360/.430 line and 10 home runs can be expected in this rebound season. Offensively, John Buck will be an upgrade of the group the Marlins had in the lineup for 2010. He won’t have the same numbers he had in hitter friendly Rogers Centre, but he can help the Marlins with 15-18 home runs and .250-.270 average down in the bottom of the order. 

The Marlins were a below-average defensive team in 2010, and I think they will be worse in 2010. Chris Coghlan didn’t play a great LF, and I think he will be even worse in CF coming off of knee surgery. Mike Stanton is the best defensive player the Marlins have, but he is negated in the outfield by the below average Logan Morrison. The team’s only significant upgrade was John Buck behind the plate. Gabby Sanchez and Omar Infante are average on the right side of the infield, but Hanley Ramirez had a tough year in terms of range. Matt Dominguez should help him out one the left side with his above average glove and range. Overall, this is should be one of the league’s poorer defensive units. 

BENCH

IF/OF- Emilio Bonifacio (S)

IF- Wes Helms (R) 

OF- Scott Cousins (L) 

C- Brett Hayes (R) 

OF- DeWayne Wise (L) 

STARTING ROTATION

RHP- Josh Johnson 

RHP- Ricky Nolasco 

RHP- Javier Vazquez 

RHP- Annibal Sanchez

RHP- Chris Volstad

The Marlins’ rotation pitched fairly well in 2010 and it is the strongest component of this 2011 team. Josh Johnson has proved over the last two seasons that he is one of the top five starting pitchers in baseball. Johnson has great control, walking only 2.35 per 9 innings, and strikeout stuff. His 95 MPH fastball has tons of movement and he works a very good slider and average change off of it. Johnson will average almost a stirkeout per innings and with his excellent groundout and HR rates should make him a contender for the CY Young. The inconsistent Ricky Nolasco will start behind Johnson. Nolasco has the talent to be a consistent number two starter in this league, but he has been the recipient of some bad luck recently. His ERA has been 5.06 and 4.51 over the last two years but xFIP says that he should have been pitching at 3.28 and 3.55. His K/BB is an excellent 4.43 over the last three years, but he has been hurt by a low LOB percentage. I expect Nolasco to put up an ERA in he 3.75-3.90 range and K/BB of 4.

Javier Vazquez struggled in his return to New York because of his drop in velocity from 91.7 MPH in 2009 to 88.7 MPH in 2010. In some of those starts, Vazquez was throwing an 84-86 MPH fastball that PITCH/FX misleadingly called a change up. I don’t think his velocity will come back, and it seems all the years of throwing 200 plus innings have caught up to him. No matter what, Vazquez will welcome the opportunity to return to the NL. Annibal Sanchez did well in his first full season in the majors throwing has best fastball in years (91.3 MPH). He relies heavily on his dominant slider, but he will mix his change and curveball effectively. I like his chances repeating similar numbers in 2011 with 7.5 K/9 and having a 3.50 ERA. Chris Volstad relies on his sinking fastball to induce groundouts, but he is BB, K, and HR rate have kept him from being a from being a reliable starter. He needs to work on his command and his HR rate if he is to improve. 

BULLPEN

RHP- Leo Nunez (Closer) 

RHP- Clay Hensley 

RHP- Ryan Webb

RHP- Edward Mujica  

LHP- Randy Choate  

LHP- Mike Dunn  

RHP- Burke Badenhop or RHP Brian Sanches 

The Marlins remade the bullpen in the offseason but the team decided to keep Leo Nunez as closer. Nunez had a good season in 2010, using his devastating change-up to strike-out 1 per inning and recording a 3.46 ERA. Nunez isn’t one of the best, but he is cheap and can get the job done for the Marlins. Clay Hensley became Florida’s main setup man after posting a 2.16 ERA. Hensley changed his approach by throwing his curveball more often. It was one of the more effective pitches during the season and transformed Hensley from mop-up man to setup man.

I like what the Marlins did with the rest of the bullpen by acquiring hard throwing Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica from the Padres. Both have decent control and Mujica will strikeout 8-9 per 9 innings. Ryan Webb, a groundball specialist, is the type of reliever the Marlins have lacked in the past. Randy Choate is a sidearming left-handed specialist who is tough on lefties, but gets killed by right-handed hitters. Mike Dunn will join Choate as the other lefty out of the pen. Dunn throws hard (avg 94.8 MPH) but his control leaves a lot to be desired. 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES

RHP- Shawn Hill

IF/OF- Greg Dobbs (L)

IF- Ruben Gotay (S)

OF- Dewayne Wise (L) 

IF- Donnie Murphy (R) 

BREAKOUT PLAYER- Logan Morrison  

Logan Morrison has the ability to become a consistent .300 hitter for this Marlins team. While he does have the tendency to strikeout, he does possess wonderful plate discipline and the ability to get on base consistently. He isn’t a power hitter, but I can see Morrison can hit to all fields and to the gaps. I see Morrison hitting close to .295/.390/.440 with 12-15 home runs this season. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH- 3B Matt Dominguez

Dominguez is considered the Marlins’ top prospect, but there are questions concerning whether or not his bat is ready for the show. Defensively, he is considered above average and ready to make an impact. He has the ability to hit approximately 15 home runs but only expect a line around .250/.320/.400 in his first season. He might not be ready, but I say its worth the risk for the Marlins to throw him out there. 

PROJECTED FINISH- 3rd in NL East 

The Marlins have a good enough rotation and enough offense to make a run in the AL East. I don’t think they will stay in it for the entire season, but the Marlins should finish above .500. The group has talent but the young players just are not ready yet to be a contender. The team has a good rotation, solid lineup, and improved bullpen. I get the feeling they will finish 3rd in this division, but crazy things have happened over the years.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Before the start of the season, I wanted to see which pitchers statistically had the best fastballs, curveballs, sliders, cutters, changeups and splitters of the 2010 season.

Here are a look at the top cutters of the 2010 season. A few notes:

The Pitch Value data was created by Fangraphs.com. I will be using the statistic, wCT, which denotes the runs above average for a particular pitch—in this case a fastball.  

The “wCT” stat benefits starting pitchers and pitchers who throw a certain pitch more often. Because the more often you throw a pitch, the better the chances are of it being successful.

Sometimes, PITCH/FX does not sort pitches into the right category. For example, Brandon Morrow’s splitter was categorized as a fastball.

Begin Slideshow

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Last Year: 80-82, fourth in NL West

Manager: Don Mattingly 

PROJECTED LINEUP

C- Rod Barajas (R)

1B- James Loney (L)

2B- Juan Uribe (R) 

3B- Casey Blake (R) (Will probably start season on DL)

SS- Rafael Furcal (S)

LF- Jay Gibbons (L)/ Marcus Thames (R)

CF- Matt Kemp (R)

RF- Andre Either (L)

The Dodgers offense struggled in 2010 ranking 21st in runs scored, and 27th in home runs. Andre Either was the club’s most consistent hitter last season, and he has been one of the more consistent left-handed hitters over the last few seasons. 25-30 home runs and a line around .290/.365/.495 are where his numbers should be at the end of the season. Matt Kemp will hit behind Either as the cleanup hitter (checkout key player section below for more on Kemp). 

Marcus Thames and Jay Gibbons will platoon in left field after both had good seasons as role players in 2010. Thames hit very well against left-handed pitchers, but his .288 average benefited from a .345 BABIP. If he gets 300 at-bats, Thames should hit hit 15 home runs and a .240-.260 average. Gibbons should put up similar numbers with the same number of at-bats with a .250-265 average and 10-15 home runs. Rod Barajas has some power (15-18 home runs expected), but he hits for a low average and doesn’t get on base often. 

Juan Uribe, the only major position player signed during the offseason, should provide some power at the 2B position. He should hit for 20 home runs, and a line of .245/.300/.420. Rafael Furcal will continue to hit leadoff after another steady season in 2010. Furcal doesn’t have the same speed, but he should swipe 20 bases with7-10 home runs and produce a line of .285/.355/.405. Loney doesn’t have the prototypical first baseman power (10-15 home runs), and his numbers have steadily declined in every season since 2007. Expect a slight up-tick in average back to .285, but the Dodgers need to get more production from the five hole. Casey Blake is battling a rib injury, but if healthy he can produce 15-20 home runs with a .260 average in the seventh spot in the order. 

The Dodgers’ defense ranked 25th in UZR rating during the 2010 season. The infield defense was not the problem, and it should be improved with Uribe, who is considered an above average defender at 2B. Rafael Furcal may make some errors at SS, but he has great range to both sides. Casey Blake and James Loney are plus defenders on the corners. Blake has great range, and Loney is very sure handed. Rod Barajas is a great receiver behind the plate, but his caught stealing percentage is below average.

The outfield defense relies on how well Matt Kemp bounces back from his terrible defensive season. He took terrible routes to balls and was the worst rated center fielder in baseball. Andre Either was also the ranked last among right fielders, and the left field combination of Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames will make the Dodgers’ outfield defense the worst in baseball. 

BENCH

IF- Jamey Carroll (R) 

IF- Ivan DeJesus (R) 

OF- Jay Gibbons (L)/ Marcus Thames (R)

C- Dioner Navarro (S) (Will miss first month of season)

C- AJ Ellis (R) or Hector Gimenez (R)

IF- Aaron Miles (S)

OF- Xavier Paul (L)

OF- Tony Gwynn Jr.

STARTING ROTATION 

LHP- Clayton Kershaw

RHP- Chad Billingsley 

LHP- Ted Lilly 

RHP- Hiroki Kuroda 

RHP- Jon Garland (Will start season on DL)  

The Dodgers’ rotation, when fully healthy, is one of the deeper rotations in the National League. Clayton Kershaw, the ace of the Dodger staff, is often forgotten as one of the best pitchers in the league. Kershaw lost a little velocity in 2010, but he still averages 92.5 MPH on his fastball and he uses his filthy slider and decent curveball to strike out more than a hitter per inning. He still needs to work on his command, but Kershaw will pitch at around a 3.00 ERA, and still strikeout more than a hitter per inning. Clay Billingsley is a good number two starter behind Kershaw. Billingsley uses a 91-93 MPH fastball, good slider, great cutter, curveball, and changeup. His command can be a little touch and go (should have 3.5-4.00 BB/9), but his groundball rate (49 percent in 2010) and strikeout rate (usually 8 K/9) should leave his ERA around 3.50 for the season. 

The soft tossing left-hander, Ted Lilly, will be the number three starter. Lilly uses a good slow curve, slider, and changeup with his 86-88 MPH fastball to get a lot of flyballs and strikeout more than 7 per 9 innings. Lilly will benefit pitching in Dodger Stadium for the entire season, and should pitch to a 3.40-3.60 ERA. Hiroki Kuroda may be one of the more underrated pitchers in the league. His xFIP (3.5&) indicates that his 3.36 ERA indicates his success in 2010. Kuroda features three plus pitches: a fastball that averages 92.5 MPH, a hard breaking slider, and good splitter. Kuroda will strike out close something close to 7 per 9 innings and pitch to a mid 3 ERA. 

The Dodgers will start the season with only four starters until a fifth will be needed later in the month. Jon Garland is on the DL with a strained oblique, but he will be one of the best fifth starters in baseball when he returns. He is a good groundball pitcher, who usually displays good command (2010 was an exception), and should pitch to a 3.90-4.10 ERA when he returns.   

BULLPEN

RHP- Jonathan Broxton (Closer) 

LHP- Hong-Chih Kuo 

RHP- Matt Guerrier 

RHP- Kenley Jansen 

RHP- Blake Hawksworth 

RHP- Mike MacDougal 

RHP- Lance Cormier or LHP- Scott Elbert

RHP- Vincente Padilla (On DL until late April) 

Jonathan Broxton comes into the 2011 season on shaky footing after loosing the closer job late last season.Broxton’s walk rate increased to 4.04 per 9 innings, but his .366 BABIP inflated his ERA to 4.04. His xFIP indicated he should have been pitching to an ERA in the low 3.00’s, so look for Broxton to have a bounce back season. Kuo was one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in baseball last season pitching to a 1.20 ERA.Kuo’s mid 90’s fastball and good slider make him tough for both right and left-handed hitters to face. His good strikeout numbers and unbelievable home run rate should allow him to pitch at a high level again if he remains healthy. 

Matt Guerrier has become a good setup man over the last few seasons despite lacking strikeout stuff. He uses good control and a starter’s repertoire to pitch to an ERA in the 3.40-3.70 range. Kenley Jansen, the converted catcher, showed great stuff in 25 games with the Dodgers last season. Jansen’s control can be spotty, but his 94-96 MPH fastball is very heavy, and he has shown a very good slider. He has been able to strikeout more than 13 per 9 innings at every level during the last two seasons. 

Blake Hawksworth looks like he will pitch some long relief to begin the season. Mike MacDougal looks like he will make the roster as a non roster invitee. MacDougal is a groundball specialist with a heavy 94.7 MPH two-seamer and slider, but his command is all over the place. Scott Elbert and Lance Cormier are still battling it out for the last spot in the rotation, but I bet Elbert gets the last spot so Mattingly can have another left-handed pitcher at his disposal. 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES 

RHP- Roman Colon

RHP- Lance Cormier 

RHP- Mike MacDougal 

LHP- Dana Eveland 

RHP- Tim Redding 

RHP- Oscar Villareal 

IF- Juan Castro (R)

IF- Aaron Miles (S)

OF- Gabe Kapler (R)

KEY PLAYER- Matt Kemp

It is no coincidence that both the when Matt Kemp struggles the entire Dodgers team struggles. Kemp can’t hit .249 again if the Dodgers want to make a run at the NL West. In addition, Kemp had the worst UZR among any center fielder, mostly because of bad routes to the ball. Kemp seemed like he was in a daze the entire 2010 season, but he has too much talent not to rebound in 2011. Look for Kemp to hit 25-28 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a line of .285/.340/.485. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH- SS Dee Gordon (L)

Dee Gordon has all the tools to be a dangerous offensive weapon in the majors. Gordon does not have much power, but he can hit line drives to all areas of the field. Many scouts project him as a dangerous .300 hitter, but his number one weapon is his speed. He stole 53 bases in AA last season. He does need to work on his defense, but getting a year at AAA will do him well. If everything goes according to plan, Dodger fans could see him in a uniform in September.  

PROJECTED FINISH- Third in NL West

The Dodgers should improve over a poor 2010 season, but the offensive holes at catcher and left field are too big to ignore. The team will finish in fourth place again if Matt Kemp struggles, but if the Dodgers could contend if he plays well. Overall, I think the Dodgers will be in it until September finishing above .500, but the Giants and Rockies have better overall teams. 

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Last Year

85-77, 4th in AL East 

Manager: John Farrell 

PROJECTED LINEUP

C – JP Arencibia (R)

1B – Adam Lind (L)

2B – Aaron Hill (R)

3B – Jose Bautista (R)

SS – Yunel Escobar (R)

LF – Travis Snider (L)

CF – Rajai Davis (R)

RF – Juan Rivera (R)

DH – Edwin Encarnacion (R)

The Blue Jays led baseball in home runs in 2010, but were inconsistent due to a lack of speed and ability to get on base. The team was in the bottom five of both OBP and stolen bases and will loose some of that power with the exits of Vernon Wells and John Buck.

Jose Bautista shouldn’t be expected to hit 54 home runs again. His 2010 was special, but its hard to believe he will repeat any of those numbers in 2011. I expect him to hit approximately 35 home runs and post an OBP of .350 and .365.

Aaron Hill and Adam Lind had very poor seasons, both with OBP under .300, after breakout years in 2009. I think they will play better than last season, but don’t expect years like 2009.

Yunel Escobar was acquired during the deadline last year during his worst season in the majors. A change of scenery will help him this year.

JP Arencibia will replace John Buck at catcher. He had a rough 36 at-bats last year, but he has tremendous power and will benefit playing at the Rogers Centre. 

Travis Snider is set to have a big season. I was impressed by his power and at bats when I watched him play later in the season against the Yankees. Many predicted that he would break out last year, but 2011 should be the year he puts it all together. Expect more than 20 home runs with a .350 OBP.

Rajai Davis will man CF. He should bring over 40 stolen bases to this lineup, a dimension Toronto was lacking in 2010.

Juan Rivera will play the other corner outfield position, and bring marginal value with 15 home runs and a .325 OBP.

Edwin Encarnacion will get most of the at-bats at DH, but expect Farrell to shuffle some of the regulars around. Encarnacion does have good power and presents a threat at the bottom of the lineup. 

Defensively, the Blue Jays have some question marks.

The word is still out on whether Arencibia can handle the duties of catching full time.

Lind is taking over the starting 1B, a position he has only played 11 times during his major league career. His defensive metrics were strong in that small sample, but we will need to see more during this season.

The middle of the infield will be fine. Hill and Escobar are both above average at their positions. While Bautista is versatile, he doesn’t play any of the corner positions particularly well and 3B might arguably be his worst position.

Rivera is an inconsistent corner outfielder with poor range. According to the metrics, Snider is a much better in LF than RF, but it remains to be seen in which corner he will anchor. Rajai Davis is very speedy and will cover a lot of ground in CF.

BENCH

C – Jose Molina (R)

IF – John McDonald (R)

OF – Corey Patterson (L)

IF – Mike McCoy (R)

STARTING ROTATION

LHP – Ricky Romero 

RHP – Brandon Morrow (Will start season on DL with strained forearm) 

LHP – Brett Cecil 

RHP – Kyle Drabek 

RHP – Jesse Litsch 

LHP – Jo Jo Reyes 

The rotation will not be as strong with the departure of Shaun Marcum.

Ricky Romero has become the ace of the staff with his low 90s fastball and great change-up, complimented with a good curveball and serviceable slider. He induces a lot of groundballs and if he can cut get his walk total down to three per nine innings, he can be one of the top pitchers in the AL.

Brandon Morrow has all the tools to become a great starter, but I worry about the consistency in his stuff from between innings and starts. Sometimes his fastball will register at 89 compared to 95. He needs to work on his control to become an elite starter, and I don’t know if this is the year where that happen.

Brett Cecil is a solid No. 3 starter who should have an ERA in the low 4.00s.

Kyle Drabek, acquired in the Roy Halladay deal, has the potential to be great. His fastball registers in the mid-90’s, he has a good cutter, sharp curve and a serviceable change-up. I say he needs a year or two in the majors, before he has All-Star type years.

Jesse Litsch throws a lot of cutters, curveballs and change-ups, with his 89.7 mph fastball to keep hitters off balance. He will only strike out four per nine innings, but he should have an ERA in the 4.25 range.

Jo Jo Reyes will take over in the fifth spot until Morrow comes back from the DL. 

BULLPEN

RHP – Frank Francisco (Closer) (On DL)

RHP – Octavio Dotel (On DL) 

RHP – Jon Rauch 

LHP – David Purcey

RHP – Shawn Camp

RHP – Casey Janssen 

RHP – Jason Frasor 

LHP – Marc Rzepczynski

RHP – Carlos Villanueva 

I like the depth the Blue Jays have put together in the bullpen after losing some of last year’s components, and is the strongest part of the club.

They will miss Scott Downs more than Kevin Gregg.

Francisco got the early hook last year as the Ranger’s closer, but pitched well until he was injured in August. He has great stuff, and averages more than a K per inning. 

Dotel is a veteran reliever who has closed and set-up. His fastball may be losing a little velocity, but he still averages more than a K per inning. One of Dotel’s weakness is his control. (4.5 BB/9 in 2010)

Rauch also has closer experience and will start the season with Francisco and Dotel on the DL. While he doesn’t have the strikeout numbers of Francisco and Dotel, he has better control. He is a flyball pitcher who I could see have some problems in the home run park that is the Rogers Centre.

I’ve been impressed throughout the years with Shawn Camp considering his below-average stuff. He only averages 88 mph on his fastball, and there isn’t much separation between that and his change-up (83.5 mph). He can log multiple innings and somehow has been one of the more consistent middle relievers for the Blue Jays.

Jason Frasor is another power arm with strikeout ability and closing experience.

The Blue Jays are a little weaker on the left side of the rubber with the departure of Gregg. Purcey looks more suited to come out of the pen, and could fill the nicely if his command doesn’t get in the way. Rzepczynski will be the primary long man with both Dotel and Francisco injured.  

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES 

RHP – Chad Cordero

RHP – Brian Stokes 

OF – Scott Podsednik (L)

OF – Corey Patterson (L)

BREAKOUT PLAYER

Travis Snider 

See Projected Lineup  

PROSPECT TO WATCH

JP Arencibia 

Arencibia is still a prospect with only 36 at-bats under his belt. Offensively, Arencibia has tremendous upside but the jury is still out on his defensive abilities. He might have a rough patch this year, but he has a great mentor in Jose Molina. 

PROJECTED FINISH

5th in AL East 

Over the last few years, the Jays have benefited from great offensive years from surprising players. I don’t think this will be the case, even with Snider.

I don’t think the offense is good enough to keep up with the other contenders in the division. While I like some members of the rotation, I don’t think this  is the year pitchers like Morrow and Drabek put it together.

They also don’t have any depth, especially in the rotation. One injury to a key player will put them out of contention quickly. Overall,I think the Jays take a step back this year, but the future is bright with new-found financial flexibility and young pitching. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Before the start of the season, I wanted to see which pitchers statistically had the best fastballs, curveballs, sliders, cutters, changeups and splitters of the 2010 season.

Here are a look at the top fastballs of the 2010 season. A few notes:

The Pitch Value data was created by Fangraphs.com. I will be using the statistic, wFA, which denotes the runs above average for a particular pitch—in this case a fastball.  

The “wFA” stat benefits starting pitchers and pitchers who throw a certain pitch more often. Because the more often you throw a pitch, the better the chances are of it being successful.

Sometimes, PITCH/FX does not sort pitches into the right category. For example, Brandon Morrow’s splitter was categorized as a fastball.

Both two and four-seam fastballs are lumped together.

Begin Slideshow

COLORADO ROCKIES

Last Year: 83-79, 3rd in NL West

Manager: Jim Tracy

PROJECTED LINEUP

C—Chris Iannetta (R)

1B—Todd Helton (L)

2B—Jose Lopez (R) 

3B—Ian Stewart (L)

SS—Troy Tulowtizki (S)

LF—Carlos Gonzalez (L)

CF—Dexter Fowler (S)

RF—Seth Smith (L)

The Rockies‘ offense, led by Troy Tulowitzki, has a good balance of power, speed and the ability to get on base. However, a lot of the hitters struggled with consistency during the 2010 season. The lineup is left-handed heavy, so there will be different lineups against left-handed pitchers with Wigginton and Spilborghs on the bench. 

Tulowitzki is the best all-around player at his position. If he stays healthy, a line of .295/.370/.540, 30 home run, and 10 stolen bases should be a safe bet.

Jose Lopez, who struggled last season with the Mariners, will bat seventh in the lineup. Lopez doesn’t strikeout very often, but he only walks in three percent of his plate appearances. Coors Field should improve Lopez’s home run total to 15, with a batting average around .275. 

Ian Stewart, who will bat behind Tulowitzki, has good power and plate discipline. If he gets 600 at-bats, Stewart should hit 26-30 home runs with a .255/.345/.465.

Todd Helton isn’t the same hitter he once was, but he should hit 10 home runs while posting a .290/.410/.430 line. 

Carlos Gonzalez had a monster 2010 season in his first full season as a starter. Gonzalez still needs to work on walk and strikeout totals, but those stats should improve as he gains more experience. I don’t think he will put up numbers like 2010, but he should hit 25-30 home runs, have 20-25 stolen bases and have a line of .300/.350/.535.

Dexter Fowler will be the Rockies’ leadoff man despite his strikeout totals. Fowler should steal 20 bases after a down 2010, and provide a .270/.360/.420 line. Seth Smith will bat in the two hole against right-handers, and he should hit close to 20 home runs with a .270-285 average. 

Based on UZR ratings, the Rockies were the seventh-lowest ranked defense in baseball. Tulowitzki is the best defender in the starting lineup, with the fifth-highest UZR rating among shortstops.

Jose Lopez played third base last season for the Mariners, but he is considered an average second baseman. Todd Helton is a sure-handed first basemen, but he has lost some range over the last few years. Ian Stewart did not commit many errors at third in 2010, but his range decreased dramatically from 2009.

Chris Iannetta is not a very good behind the plate. He doesn’t have a good caught-stealing percentage, nor does he handle balls in the dirt well. Carlos Gonzalez will start the season in left field, where he plays his best overall defense. Dexter Fowler is below average in center, and Seth Smith is considered a plus defender in right. 

BENCH

IF—Ty Wigginton (R) 

1B—Jason Giambi (L)

OF—Ryan Spilborghs (R) 

C—Jose Morales (S)

IF/OF—Jonathan Herrera (S)

STARTING ROTATION 

RHP—Ubaldo Jimenez 

LHP—Jorge De La Rosa

RHP—Jhoulys Chacin

RHP—Jason Hammel 

RHP—Esmil Rogers 

RHP—Aaron Cook (will start season on DL with broken finger) 

The Rockies’ rotation struggled last season with the exception of Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez throws four plus pitches including a 96 MPH fastball, good slider, curveball and excellent changeup. His command can be an issue (3.74 BB/9), but his strikeout, ground ball and home run-rates all but make up for it. He should put up a 3.20 ERA with the strikeout rate around the familiar 8.50.

Jorge De La Rosa will slot in as the number two starter in the rotation. De La Rosa has proved to be a valuable starter for the Rockies over the last two seasons. His repertoire includes a 92-94 MPH fastball, a good slider, a “show me” curve and an excellent changeup. Like Jimenez, his command can be an issue. But he should strikeout close to one hitter per inning and have an ERA close to 4.20. 

Jhouyls Chacin impressed during his rookie campaign in 2010, becoming one of the more consistent starters on the team. Chacin averages 91.1 MPH on his fastball, but he also throws a great slider and curveball, while mixing in an average changeup. Like the rest of the starters mentioned, Chacin will walk four per nine innings. But should strikeout close to a hitter per inning and pitch to an ERA close to 3.80.

Jason Hammel will pitch behind Chacin, and I talk about the potential for a breakout season later in the preview. 

Esmil Rogers will start the season as the club’s number five starter with Aaron Cook on the DL with a broken finger. Rogers throws 93-96 MPH with a good slider, average curveball and changeup. He posted a high ERA last season in limited work, but his xFIP (3.71) says he pitched better than his ERA suggests.

Aaron Cook should be back sometime in May. Cook is a sinkerballer who will walk around three per nine innings and strikeout 4.5 per nine. He uses his 89.5 MPH sinker with an occasional slider and curveball. If Rogers pitches well in his spot, Cook may not comeback to the rotation. 

BULLPEN

RHP—Huston Street (Closer) 

RHP—Rafael Betancourt 

RHP—Matt Belisle 

LHP—Matt Reynolds 

RHP—Matt Lindstrom 

LHP—Franklin Morales  

RHP—Matt Daley or RHP—Felipe Paulino 

Huston Street will remain the closer for this deep Colorado bullpen. Street throws 91 MPH with a good slider and changeup that makes him equally tough on lefties. His great control is an asset, and he should strikeout eight to nine hitters over nine innings, with a mid 2.50 ERA.

Rafael Betancourt is one of the best right-handed setup men in baseball because of his excellent K/BB ratio (11.13 in 2010). That number won’t be that high in 2011, but his excellent control of his 92-94 MPH fastball and slider should have him in the 4-5 K/BB range. 

Matt Belisle had a career year for the Rockies last season, and it remains to be seen whether he can pitch at that level again. His ERA was at 2.93, and his xFIP confirmed that success with a 2.90 number. Belisle has great command of all his pitches. If he can record 7-8 strikeouts per nine innings, I think he can pitch at that same level again.

The hard-throwing Matt Lindstrom will do some setup work after struggling with the Astros last season in the closer role. Lindstrom has outstanding stuff—a fastball that averages 95.7 MPH, a good slider and decent splitter to be an effective reliever. However, he hasn’t been able to harness his stuff and he should strikeout more than his 7.27 K/9 rate. 

Matt Reynolds and Franklin Morales will be the left-handed relievers out of the bullpen. Reynolds pitched well in 20 games for the Rockies last year, striking out 8.50 every nine innings. He has posted similar numbers in the minors, and I think he will be a nice weapon for the Rockies.

Franklin Morales has the potential to be a valuable member of the Rockies’ bullpen, but he needs to harness command of his 93-96 MPH fastball. He has the curveball and change to succeed in the majors, but his command has kept him back for too long.

Matt Daley or Felipe Paulino will take the last spot in the bullpen. 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES 

RHP—John Maine

LHP—Eric Stults

RHP—Claudio Vargas

RHP—Sean White

LHP—Greg Smith

IF- Alfredo Amezaga (S)

1B- Jason Giambi (L)

1B- Mike Jacobs (L)

OF- Willy Taveras (R) 

BREAKOUT PLAYER—Jason Hammel 

Jason Hammel has put up two solids seasons over the last two years, averaging 3.75 WAR. Both years, Hammel’s ERA was in the mid four’s, but his xFIP indicated he was pitching at a 3.70 level. He has been the victim of a below average left-on-base percentage and a high BABIP, both of which inflated his ERA. 

Hammel averages 93 MPH on his fastball, and his repertoire includes a plus curveball, good slider and an average changeup. Along with his ground-ball rate, good control (2.39 BB/9), strikeout rate (7.14 K/9) and low home run total, Hammel should have a very good year and pitch to an ERA around 3.70. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH—C Willin Rosario (R)

Willin Rosario is the Rockies’ top catching prospect. He is an intriguing option if he plays well at AA and Chris Iannetta struggles this season.

Rosario has great power, especially for a catcher, and he is seen as a long term fit behind the plate in the majors. There are no concerns after he tore his ACL in August. He should be game ready by the time the season starts. Rosario needs to work on his plate discipline and strikeout rate, but he is definitely a top prospect who will get a look soon. 

PROJECTED FINISH—2rd in NL West

The Rockies have a good lineup, but the team can’t under perform the way the they did last season and expect to win the division. I don’t think the starting pitching is good enough to beat the Giants, but it is good enough to compete for the Wild Card. The bullpen should hold up nicely, but the real key is the overall performance of the lineup. 

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LOS ANGELES ANGELS 

Last Year: 80-82, 3rd in AL West  

Manager: Mike Scioscia 

PROJECTED LINEUP 

C- Jeff Mathis (R) 

1B- Kendry Morales (S) (Will start season on DL)

2B- Howie Kendrick (R)

3B- Maicer Izturis (S) or Alberto Callaspo (S)

SS- Erick Aybar (S)

LF- Vernon Wells (R)

CF- Peter Bourjos (R)

RF- Torii Hunter (R)

DH- Bobby Abreu (L)

The Angels really struggled in 2010 after Kendry Morales broke his leg. Morales is the stabilizing force in the Angels’ lineup from both sides of the plate. While Morales doesn’t have the greatest plate discipline, his power and average make up for it. Expect a line of .295/.345/.515 with 30 home runs.

The rest of the infield doesn’t provide the same pop as Morales. Howie Kendrick averages about 10 HRs with a .295 batting average and a .330 OBP. He lives and dies on putting the ball in play, and luck will be the ultimate factor in what kind of season Kendick will have in 2011.

Erick Aybar struggled in 2010 after a great 2009, and I am expecting a season around .275/.325/.370 with 5-8 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Maicer Izturis will put up a similar line to Aybar with increased OBP and SLG, but without the stolen bases.

Callaspo has more power than Izturis and will get time playing at 2B if Kendrick struggles. Jeff Mathis is terrible at the plate and Hank Conger could get some at-bats if he makes the team. 

Bobby Abreu will be a DH for the first time in his career coming off a poor 2010 in terms of batting average. Abreu’s 2010 was not as poor as some would make it out to be. His power, OBP, and stolen bases, were right around his usual numbers. His 2010 BABIP was his lowest ever, so it looks like 2010 was just a bad luck year.

Vernon Wells looked like he recovered from wrist surgery and had one of his better years. I expect the power to come down a little, but look for a similar line of .275/.330/.475 with 25 home runs.

Peter Bourjos struggled at the plate when he was called up later in the season, but he was the victim of a low BABIP and high strikeout rate. He needs to cut down on the strikeouts, but I think he will produce a line of .255/.300/.385 with more than 30 stolen bases.

Torii Hunter had the best year of any Angel offensive player in 2010 and he is one of the more consistent players in baseball. I expect the usual line of .280/.350/.470 with 20-25 home runs. 

The Angels were an average defensive team in 2010, but they really improved when Torii Hunter shifted from CF to RF and Peter Bourjos became the everyday center fielder. Bourjos has the speed and ability to become one of the best defensive center fielders in the game. According to UZR (ultimate zone rating), Torii Hunter displayed much more range in RF than in his CF including one of the better arms in baseball.

Vernon Wells will shift over to LF, and I think he will benefit from playing a corner position much like Hunter did last year. No matter what, Wells will be a great improvement over Bobby Abreu in the OF.

Behind the plate, Mike Scioscia considers Jeff Mathis one of the best. In the infield, Kendry Morales may be one of the better first basemen in the league. Howie Kendrick has always been considered very good at 2B, but 2010 was an off year in terms of UZR. The same could be said for SS Erick Aybar, but I figure that 2010 was also an off year for him. Both Alberto Callaspo and Maicer Izturis have great range at 3B. 

BENCH

OF- Reggie Willits (S)

IF- Maicer Izturis (S) or Alberto Callaspo (S)

1B/OF- Mark Trumbo (R)

1B/3B- Brandon Wood (R)

C- Bobby Wilson (R)

STARTING ROTATION

RHP- Jered Weaver

RHP- Dan Haren 

RHP- Ervin Santana 

RHP- Joel Pinero 

LHP- Scott Kazmir 

The starting rotation is the strongest part of this Angels squad.

Jered Weaver has become the ace of this staff because of his strong off-speed stuff and his ability to read hitter’s swings. Weaver averages only 90 MPH on his fastball, but he compliments it with three above-average secondary pitches that he throws to right and left-handed hitters. Weaver will throw a slider to both sides, mix in a slow curve, and drop a nasty changeup to all hitters. 

Dan Haren benefited from the move to the AL from the hitter’s friendly Chase Field in Arizona. Haren struggled a little more in Arizona because of the increased amount of fly balls he allowed, which seems like an aberration.

Haren throws a 90 MPH two-seamer plus a cutter, average curve-ball, and a splitter as his out-pitch. Haren is a great number two starter, he will log innings, have a good WHIP, and strike eight out per nine innings. 

Ervin Santana pitched well in 2010, but he has usually followed up a good year with a poor one in his career. Santana averages 92.5 MPH on his fastball, but he relies heavily on his devastating slider. He will mix in a changeup occasionally to a left-handed batter, but the slider is considered his out-pitch. Santana should have an average year with a 4.20 ERA unless he can show the velocity he had in 2008 (94.4 MPH). 

Joel Pineiro, who revitalized his career as a starter in 2009, makes for a very good No. 4 starter. He is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, who relies on his two-seamer (88 MPH,) good curve, average change, and “get me over” slider.

Pineiro didn’t show the same control in 2010 (two BB/9) as he had in 2009 (1.16 BB/9). Nonetheless, Pineiro seems like a safe bet for a 4.00 ERA and five K/9.

Finally, the Angels will need to see a resurgence from Scott Kazmir if they are to contend this year. Kazmir just isn’t the same pitcher. His K/9 and velocity has dropped every year since 2007.

Kazmir needs the velocity and strikeouts in order to succeed because his control and ground-ball rate just aren’t good enough to be a successful pitcher in this league. Kazmir’s season might have been a lot worse if it wasn’t for his extremely lucky BABIP of .264. (Average BABIP is .290)

BULLPEN

RHP- Fernando Rodney (Closer)

RHP- Kevin Jepsen

LHP- Scott Downs (start season on DL)

RHP- Rich Thompson 

LHP- Hisanori Takahashi 

RHP- Jason Bulger 

RHP- Jordan Walden 

RHP- Michael Kohn

This Angels bullpen has some depth, but the team needs to find a stable closer. Fernando Rodney isn’t the answer. Despite his amazing stuff, Rodney’s strikeout rate has declined over the last three years. In addition, he has poor control.

Any one of the following pitchers could get save opportunities if Rodney struggles. Scott Downs is a great pickup for the Angels, because of his ability to get left and right-handed hitters out. Kevin Jepsen throws gas out of the bullpen, but his lack of command gets him into trouble.

Takashashi can be a valuable swing-man for the Angels, but his inability to get hitters out a second time around keeps him from starting. Takashashi could close because of his effective changeup that he uses on right-handed hitters  

Jason Bulger, a high strikeout and walk type like Jepsen, will get some chances at meaningful work in the middle innings. Rich Thompson finished up strong in 2010, so he might get a chance at some late-inning work. Jordan Walden might have the highest upside of the entire group (Check out BREAKOUT PLAYER). 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES

RHP- Eric Junge 

IF- Gil Velazquez (R)

BREAKOUT PLAYER—RHP Jordan Walden

Jordan Walden has the potential to be the next closer for the Angels, much like K-Rod became from 2002 to 2004. Walden throws a fastball in the high 90’s with an inconsistent slider. If the different options at closer fail, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Walden at the closer position sometime in the future. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH—OF Mike Trout 

Mike Trout was named MLB.com’s top prospect this year, and it’s hard to find anyone who disagrees with this assessment. He has speed, power, hits for average, and gets on base. Trout has the potential to be a Carl Crawford-like player, and the Angels center fielder for many years to come. He is projected to be in the lineup next year.

PROJECTED FINISH—3rd in AL West 

The Angels just don’t have enough firepower to win this division or contend for the playoffs. Oakland has really improved and the Texas Rangers are still favored to win the division. The Angels could upset if everyone in the rotation pitches like they are capable of, but it is unlikely.

The team needed to upgrade its offense somewhere in the infield, especially at 3B, but they traded for the albatross that is Vernon Wells instead of really pursuing Carl Crawford. Mike Scioscia usually keeps his teams competitive, but this year will be a struggle similar to last year. 

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