Archive for September, 2016

2017 MLB Free Agents: Predictions for Top Pitchers Set to Hit Open Market

With the end of the MLB regular season only days away, teams around the league can start to make plans about how to attack a free-agent market that is light on starting pitchers but loaded with impact relievers.

Clubs in dire need of upgrading their rotations should not expect to add anything more than a No. 3 starter. However, contenders looking to solidify their pitching staffs with a stud reliever could be in luck with several players available who could make a difference in tight games. These types of players are certainly valuable, as they were centerpieces in some high-profile deals at this year’s trade deadline.

With that in mind, take a look below at a list of notable pitchers with expiring contracts who could draw significant interest in the 2017 class, along with predictions and breakdowns for three of the top options available.

A full list of the upcoming free-agent pitcher class can be found at Spotrac.com.

   

Andrew Cashner

As one of the biggest names available at this season’s trade deadline, Andrew Cashner has been a bust with the Miami Marlins.

Since being traded to Miami from San Diego on July 29, the 30-year-old is 1-4 with an abysmal 5.73 ERA. Making matters worse, the team ended up giving starter Colin Rea, also involved in the deal, back to the Padres after medical issues, and the Marlins are without promising pitching prospects Carter Capps and Jarred Cosart and top first baseman prospect Josh Naylor, which WINZ Radio’s Andy Slater noted:

After the 2013 and 2014 seasons, where he posted 3.09 and 2.55 ERAs, respectively, Cashner has not been the same guy who looked like a potential power pitcher who could help anchor a rotation. He hasn’t posted an ERA under 4.00 since 2014 while also accumulating double-digit losses in every season in that span. The Marlins still gave up plenty to bring him in, but that relationship could end this offseason.

Cashner has not been a good fit, which is evident by his subpar numbers. There are also other issues with him and the team, as he is not thrilled by the Miami policy that forced him to shave his full beard, per the Miami Herald‘s Barry Jackson.

“Cashner said ‘I still hate’ the Marlins’ no-beard rule and ‘that is a big deal to me in free agency,'” per Jackson, which could indicate some personality clashes as well. 

The Marlins would probably be wise to use their money elsewhere, and Cashner would benefit from a change of scenery. Expect him to sign with a different club in free agency.

   

Aroldis Chapman

Unlike Cashner, closer Aroldis Chapman is continuing his dominant ways in a new home.

Chapman was a star reliever, along with Andrew Miller, whom the New York Yankees used to acquire a slew of young talent at the trade deadline. Since joining the Chicago Cubs, Chapman has been electric with a 1.09 ERA and 16 saves in 18 opportunities. He is 36-for-39 on save attempts for the season.

Chicago has been the best team in baseball throughout this season, which is why it brought in Chapman to secure its bullpen for a World Series run. However, the team is not completely sold on re-signing the hard-throwing closer. Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune indicated on Monday that Chapman is expecting to field the biggest contract ever for a closer, which the Cubs may not be willing to dish out.

The 28-year-old insisted he is not paying much attention to his pending free agency, per Sullivan.

“I haven’t really thought about it,” he said. “Everyone in the world is asking me, but right now I don’t really know.”

While Chapman is not focusing on his future, one team certainly is:

Today’s Knuckleball’s Jon Heyman originally reported this news, but Chapman also said he would be open to a return to New York after he was traded, per NJ.com’s Brandon Kuty. This move makes sense for both parties.

With Mark Teixeira set to retire and CC Sabathia’s contract expiring after next season, the new youth-powered Yankees have plenty of money to spend. Giving a monstrous deal to a sensational closer who could anchor the bullpen for the next seven or eight years seems like a strong investment.

As the New York Post‘s Ken Davidoff notes, Dellin Betances has not been outstanding as the Yankees closer, and having him in a setup role for Chapman could be a more ideal situation for the New York bullpen.

Chicago already has several big contracts on its books, and with young stars like Kris Bryant and Addison Russell soon needing substantial deals, the team could opt against paying up for Chapman. The Cuban is already comfortable in New York, and the team has the funds and the fit to add him to the exciting mix of talent within the organization. Look for the Yankees to emerge as the favorite to land this big fish in free agency.

   

Kenley Jansen

In one of the more unknown pending free-agency situations, Los Angeles Dodgers star closer Kenley Jansen has proven to be noncommittal regarding his offseason plans.

Jansen is arguably the top closer in the National League, including Chapman, as he is posting career highs in ERA with 1.86 and saves with 47 and counting. Jansen has posted at least 35 saves in each of the past three seasons. Yet he did not seem fully on board with returning to Los Angeles when speaking with Heyman on Sept. 15.

LA’s nice. LA’s great. LA gave me the opportunity. LA converted me when I failed as a catcher. I’m grateful about it, and will never forget LA. But at the same time, we’ll have to see what’s good for the family. …

It’s going to be a tough decision. It’s not going to only be me.

The Dodgers have made it known to Jansen that he is a top priority for them this offseason, per the Orange County Register‘s Bill Plunkett, and the 28-year-old gave slightly more encouraging comments on Sept. 17.

“That means they showed respect, that they know it’s up to them to keep me here,” Jansen said, per Plunkett. “After we hold up that trophy at the end of the year, we can all sit down and talk.”

Los Angeles’ current roster gives the team NL pennant hopes for the next few seasons, and keeping Jansen would enhance that sentiment. Yet the team does have other free agents to account for this offseason, including Justin Turner, and big contracts on the horizon for Joc Pederson and Corey Seager.

Expect Jansen’s playoff performance to have a significant impact on where he lands. He allowed two runs in only 4.1 innings in Los Angeles’ run to the National League Championship Series in 2013, but he did not give up any runs in 4.1 combined innings in the last two postseasons. If Jansen plays well during a long playoff run, he could stay. If not, he very well could be in a different uniform in 2017.

    

Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


B/R MLB 300: Ranking the Top 80 Starting Pitchers of 2016

It’s time for the B/R MLB 300 to take a break from bats and gloves and focus on the arms. First up: starting pitchers.

There are typically 150 starting pitchers in Major League Baseball at any given moment. And while 2016 hasn’t been a banner year for great starting pitching the way the previous few years were, there are still many good starters out there. Our list covers 80 of them, who are scored like so:

  • Control: 30 points
  • Whiffability: 25 points
  • Hittability: 25 points
  • Workload: 20 points

Before we move on, here’s a reminder that this year’s B/R MLB 300 is different from past versions in a key way. Rather than use the events of 2016 to project for 2017, the focus is strictly on 2016. Think of these rankings as year-end report cards.

For more on how the scoring and ranking work, read ahead.

Begin Slideshow


2016-17 MLB Free Agents: B/R’s Initial Top 25 Big Board

With the end of MLB‘s regular season almost upon us, we sit only weeks away from Opening Day of the hot-stove league and the start of free agency.

Much has been made of this year’s crop of free agents, and most of the chatter hasn’t been complimentary. The market lacks quality starters but makes up for it with a number of solid position players and substantial bullpen help.

Our initial big board reflects that, as it’s heavy on the bats and light on the arms.

Players are ranked primarily on the impact they’re expected to have on a team in 2017, with statistics, injury history and potential regression taken into consideration. You’ll find a player’s age on Opening Day 2017 next to their name in parentheses.

Speaking of injuries, medical issues knocked catcher Wilson Ramos (torn ACL) and second baseman Neil Walker (back surgery) off our big board completely. If they were healthy, Ramos would have landed in the top five and Walker would have made the top 20.

Who made the cut? Let’s find out.

    

1. OF Yoenis Cespedes (31)

It’d be stunning if Yoenis Cespedes didn’t opt out of his current deal with the New York Mets to land a bigger and longer payday. An anonymous general manager recently told Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball that he expects Cespedes to land a contract between $150 million and $200 million.

Those kinds of numbers aren’t surprising, as he’s coming off another big season and will be the most sought-after free-agent outfielder on the market. So long as a team lets him stick in left field, it’ll be getting a potential Gold Glove defender and a dynamic game-changer to plug into the middle of its lineup.

     

2. 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion (34)

We’ve gotten so used to seeing Edwin Encarnacion put up big numbers for Toronto that it’s hard to envision him wearing a different team’s uniform. But his bat plays anywhere, and with the veteran slugger posting career highs in homers (42) and RBI (127), his services are going to be in high demand. 

While his defense has improved at first base, he’s not really an everyday option at the position and will need to take some reps as a designated hitter, limiting his market to the American League only. His off-field legal issues, which remain unsettled, could become an issue for some teams.

     

3. 3B Justin Turner (32)

Justin Turner wants to stay in Los Angeles, per Heyman, but figures to be looking for his first big payday after a three-year stint with the Dodgers that has seen him hit a combined .296 with 50 home runs, 192 RBI and a .858 OPS. 

He’s versatile enough to play multiple positions, which could be a selling point in negotiations as he pursues a deal like Ben Zobrist’s four-year, $56 million contract with the Chicago Cubs, but Turner will likely be viewed as a full-time third baseman by most clubs.

     

T4. CL Aroldis Chapman (29) and CL Kenley Jansen (29)

It’s entirely possible—and probable—that both Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen will best Jonathan Papelbon’s four-year, $50 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies before the 2012 season, a record-setting deal for a free-agent reliever at the time.

After all, we are talking about two of the game’s most dominant late-inning weapons who are in their prime.

But aside from a roughly seven-month age gap, the only real difference between the two is that Chapman is a lefty who served a 30-game suspension in April for violating MLB’s domestic-violence policy, while Jansen is a baggage-free right-handed stud.

     

6. OF Ian Desmond (31)

Ian Desmond bet on himself last winter and won, putting together a 20-20 season for the Texas Rangers (.284 BA, 22 HR, 20 SB, .781 OPS) while providing above-average defense in center field, a position he’s essentially learned on the fly. 

It’s doubtful he’ll do better than the seven-year, $107 million extension he reportedly turned down from the Washington Nationals heading into 2014, per MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, but teams from both leagues will be looking to add him. That could see Desmond get closer to that deal than expected.

     

7. OF/DH Mark Trumbo (31)

Mark Trumbo has been a shell of the player who earned a spot on the AL All-Star team, posting a putrid .197/.273/.450 second-half slash line. His mammoth right-handed power will be in demand, but teams can’t ignore such a brutal two-and-a-half month stretch to close out the regular season.

He’s also still a significant defensive liability in the outfield and is best utilized as a full-time designated hitter. That’s going to limit his market and earning power, despite his MLB-leading 46 home runs.

     

8. OF Jose Bautista (36)

Like Encarnacion, it’s odd to imagine Jose Bautista anywhere but Toronto. While he likely has some productive seasons left in the tank, there’s legitimate concern about what kind of player Joey Bats will be at the end of his next deal. Injuries caused him to miss all but 18 games in June and July.

Still, he’s looked like himself of late, hitting .250 with an .831 OPS and nearly as many walks (22) as strikeouts (26) in September. When he’s healthy, he’s still capable of being a force in the middle of a team’s lineup. But given his age, there’s a limit to how much that’s worth.

Unless Bautista can convince everyone that he’s about to turn 26, not 36, the five-year, $150 million-plus extension that both Heyman and Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star reported he sought from the Blue Jays back in February is nothing but a dream. He’s going to wind up with a shorter, less lucrative deal.

     

9. CL Mark Melancon (32)

He’s not as flashy as Chapman or Jansen—and name recognition among fans counts to some extent when teams are considering free agents—but the numbers say that Mark Melancon is nearly as effective.

For teams that miss out on both of the more highly touted closers, Melancon is a terrific fallback option.

     

10. SP Rich Hill (37)

Rich Hill might be the best free-agent starter available, but there are legitimate questions about his ability to stay healthy over the course of a full 162-game season. Injuries limited him to only 19 combined starts and 105.1 innings between the Oakland A’s and the Dodgers in 2016.

When healthy, he looked like a Cy Young candidate, pitching to a combined 12-5 record with a 2.05 ERA and 0.98 WHIP while averaging nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings of work. Per Brooks Baseball, his curveball remains a filthy, almost unfair pitch that opposing hitters can’t figure out.

But he’s closer to his 40th birthday than his 30th and has only surpassed the 100-inning mark twice over parts of 12 big league seasons. That, along with his health, could limit the kinds of offers he receives.

     

11. OF Dexter Fowler (31)

A legitimate table-setter atop a lineup thanks to his penchant for getting on base (even while striking out more than 100 times a season), Dexter Fowler remains a tremendous athlete who can hit for average and power while causing problems with his speed. He’ll decline his end of a $9 million mutual option to stay with the Chicago Cubs next season in search of a multiyear deal.

     

12. OF Josh Reddick (30)

After a horrific first month with the Dodgers that saw him hit .161 with a .396 OPS, Josh Reddick is finishing the season strong, hitting .400 with a 1.004 OPS in September. He’s no longer the defensive stud he once was, but Reddick‘s throwing arm remains a cannon, and he’s still got 20-home run pop in his bat.

     

13. DH Carlos Beltran (39)

Carlos Beltran has put together a terrific season, hitting a combined .295 with 28 home runs, 92 RBI and a .846 OPS for the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers. While he’s a full-time DH at this point, the future Hall of Famer can still be a productive player and a leader for an AL club.

     

14. 1B/DH Mike Napoli (35)

Mike Napoli‘s contributions in the clubhouse often overshadow his production on the field, but it’s hard to ignore a season that’s seen him set new career highs in multiple categories, including home runs (34), RBI (101), hits (132) and runs scored (92).

     

15. SP Jeremy Hellickson (29)

Jeremy Hellickson put together a strong season in Philadelphia (12-10, 3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), and the Phillies are expected to extend him a qualifying offer. Having draft-pick compensation attached to him will negatively impact his market, even with a dearth of quality starters available.

     

16. C Matt Wieters (30)

Two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Matt Wieters is what he is: a solid defensive backstop who can hit for some power but shouldn’t be counted on to be a key cog in a team’s offensive attack.

     

17. OF Michael Saunders (30)

Michael Saunders stayed healthy enough to play in more than 130 games for the first time since 2013, and a sizzling start to the season made Saunders a first-time All-Star. But his late-season swoon isn’t going to help him make the case that he’s worthy of an All-Star deal in free agency.

     

18. SP Ivan Nova (30)

Ivan Nova’s career has been rejuvenated with the Pittsburgh Pirates, where pitching coach Ray Searage has once again worked his magic with a wayward starter. If teams believe he can continue to build off what he’s learned with the Pirates, he could wind up with a robust market of suitors.

     

19. SP Andrew Cashner (30)

Andrew Cashner has front-of-the-rotation stuff but has never been able to control it enough—or stay healthy enough—to reach his potential. That’s still enough for a team to take a chance on him, especially in a weak market.

     

20. RP Brad Ziegler (37)

Brad Ziegler, a sidearm/submarine-style veteran, has been even better with the Boston Red Sox than he was with the Arizona Diamondbacks, pitching to a combined 2.17 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while serving in multiple roles out of the bullpen, including closer.

     

21. SP Bartolo Colon (43)

“I think everybody just loves Big Sexy,” Nationals pitcher Gio Gonzalez told ESPN.com’s Kevin Van Valkenburg in July, speaking of baseball’s beloved elder statesman. Bartolo Colon is truly an ageless wonder, going 14-8 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over more than 186 innings for the Mets. He can hit a little, too.

     

22. SP Doug Fister (33)

Doug Fister isn’t the same pitcher he was in 2014, when he finished eighth in the NL Cy Young Award voting, but he is still a capable back-of-the-rotation arm who can eat some innings.

     

23. DH Kendrys Morales (33)

A full-time DH, Kendrys Morales delivered his first 30-homer season since 2009 and should remain relatively productive through the life of his next deal. That kind of performance makes it a stretch to think that he’ll exercise his portion of an $11 million mutual option to stay in Kansas City next season.

     

24. OF Carlos Gomez (31)

CarGo has looked more like his usual self with the Rangers after a brutal stint with the Houston Astros, both at the plate—he’s posted a .291/.371/.564 slash line over 31 games—and in the field, with above-average defense.

     

25. OF Matt Holliday (37)

Matt Holliday rediscovered his power stroke, going from four home runs in 2015 to 19 in 2016. But he struggled overall, hitting just .242 with a .768 OPS. Unlikely to have his $17 million team option picked up by St. Louis, he could wind up in the AL as a part-time DH.

      

Honorable Mention: SP R.A. Dickey, OF Rajai Davis, SP Colby Lewis, 1B/OF Brandon Moss and OF Colby Rasmus.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through games of Sept. 28.

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Predicting How Final 2016 MLB Playoff Race Weekend Will Play Out

This thing isn’t over yet.

Yes, with a scant four days remaining in the 2016 MLB regular season, many races have been decided.

The Chicago Cubs have wrapped up the National League Central and the NL’s best record. Likewise, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals have locked down the NL West and East, respectively.

Over in the American League, the Texas Rangers have clinched the AL West, the Cleveland Indians own the AL Central and the Boston Red Sox won the AL East on Wednesday night when the Baltimore Orioles defeated the Toronto Blue Jays.

That leaves plenty swirling in the air.

Both wild-card races are undecided, as is home-field advantage in two of the four division-series matchups.

Multiple clubs are vying for position with the outcome of every game magnified. Let’s parse the relevant races and offer some predictions about how this crucial, playoff-sealing weekend will shake down.

     

NL Wild-Card Race

Entering play Thursday, this is a three-team scrum between the New York Mets (85-74), San Francisco Giants (83-75) and St. Louis Cardinals (82-76).

If the season ended now, the NL Wild Card Game would feature the Mets and the Giants at Citi Field. There’s ample opportunity for movement, however.

After an off day Thursday, the Mets play three games on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies. New York is 10-6 against the Phils this season, and Philadelphia has dropped five of its last six.

Plus, New York boasts a winning record (41-37) on the road, and it has Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colon lined up to pitch despite an injury-depleted starting rotation.

The Giants get one more game against the Colorado Rockies on Thursday at AT&T Park, followed by a three-game set at home with Los Angeles.

The Dodgers have already wrapped up the division, but they’re battling for home-field advantage in the division series (more on that shortly).

Despite their abysmal 26-42 record since the All-Star break, the Giants are clinging to even-year life. They’ve got co-aces Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto chambered to start two of their remaining four games.

The Dodgers won’t roll over, but the fact that L.A. has won the West could play into San Francisco’s hands.

The Cards have a soft(ish) schedule with a game Thursday against the last-place Cincinnati Reds and three versus the also-ran Pittsburgh Pirates.

St. Louis, however, has dropped two of its last three games to the Reds and has a starting rotation with an eyebrow-raising 4.36 ERA.

Prediction: Mets win the No. 1 NL wild card, Giants win the No. 2 slot.

    

AL Wild-Card Race

The wild-card pool is deeper and murkier in the Junior Circuit.

The Blue Jays (87-71) hold the top slot, followed by the Orioles (86-72), Detroit Tigers (85-73) and Seattle Mariners (84-74).

The Jays play one more pivotal game at home against the Orioles on Thursday before traveling to Beantown for three against the Red Sox.

The game against the O’s should favor the Blue Jays. Toronto will toss out Marcus Stroman, who has pitched into the sixth inning or later in seven of his last eight starts.

On the other hand, Baltimore starter Ubaldo Jimenez has won two of his last three decisions.

Let’s give that game to the Blue Jays on home-field advantage. After that, they flutter to Fenway Park for three games, though they’ll be playing a Red Sox team with less to fight for.

The Orioles, meanwhile, will travel to the Bronx for three games against a scrappy New York Yankees squad that sold at the trade deadline yet stayed in the hunt.

Interestingly, Toronto has an 8-8 record against Boston this season, and the Orioles are 8-8 against the Yanks, exemplifying the parity that has defined this noisy division race.

Enter the Tigers, who get the Indians on Thursday followed by three away games against the Atlanta Braves.

That seems like a boon for the Tigers. The Braves are bottom-feeders in the NL East, after all. But Atlanta has won nine of its last 10 games and may relish the role of spoiler against an unusual AL opponent.

The clubs haven’t met in the regular season since 2013, so we don’t have much to draw on.

In theory, though, the Tigers are playing a soft opponent.

“We gotta win baseball games,” Detroit skipper Brad Ausmus said, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.

Speaking of which, after winning two of three from the Astros and burying Houston, the Mariners get four games at home against the Oakland A’s.

Seattle has won five of its last seven and is 10-5 against Oakland this season.

That sounds good, but the M’s have to make up too much ground and leapfrog too many teams in too small a window.

Instead, we’ll bet on the Jays’ holding serve while the Tigers sink their claws into the Braves.

Prediction: Blue Jays win the No. 1 AL wild card, Tigers win the No. 2 slot.

    

Home-Field Advantage Battles

It’s not as life-or-death as the wild-card scrums, but the fight for home-field advantage in the division series matters.

As mentioned, the Cubs have the NL’s top perch secured. The World Series will open in the AL park thanks to its win in the 2016 MLB All-Star Game.

The Rangers (94-65) get a day off Thursday before closing out with three at home against the Tampa Bay Rays, the last-place team in the AL East.

Boston (92-66) will tango with the aforementioned Blue Jays, who will be intent on securing a postseason berth. The Indians (91-67) get a game against the Tigers on Thursday, followed by three against the prideful, defending champion Royals in Kansas City.

It’s worth noting that Cleveland has a severely depleted rotation. Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar are out, and ace Corey Kluber is battling a quadriceps strain and won’t take the hill until the postseason, as WTAM 1100’s Nick Camino noted:

Over in the NL, the limping Nationals play one at home against the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks and three in D.C. with the Miami Marlins.

The Dodgers face the Padres once more in San Diego before heading north for three with the Giants.

With the Nats decimated by injuries, the Dodgers have a distinct advantage in the division series. But Washington (92-66) holds a two-game lead over L.A. (90-68), so the NLDS is likely to open in the nation’s capital.

Prediction: Rangers win the AL’s No. 1 seed, Indians win the No. 2 seed, Red Sox win the No. 3 seed; Nationals win the NL’s No. 2 seed, Dodgers win the NL’s No. 3 seed.

    

All standings and statistics current as of Wednesday and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Mike Trout Injury: Updates on Angels Star’s Shoulder and Return

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout left Wednesday’s game against the Oakland Athletics with an injury after being hit by a pitch. However, he is not expected to miss game time.

Continue for updates.


Trout Comments on Playing Status

Thursday, Sept. 29 

Trout told reporters he hopes to play on Friday, after X-rays on his shoulder were negative.  


Scioscia Comments on Trout’s Timeline

Thursday, Sept. 29

Angels manager Mike Scioscia announced that Trout is expected to be play against the Houston Astros on Friday, according to the Orange County Register‘s Jeff Fletcher. The Angels have Thursday off.


Trout in ‘Significant Pain’

Wednesday, Sept. 28

Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times said, “Trout was just nailed in the left shoulder by a 96 mph John Axford fastball. He’s in significant pain and being examined by the trainer.”


Trout’s Stats and Accomplishments

As of Wednesday, Trout was slashing .318/.441/.556 with 29 home runs, 99 RBI and 27 stolen bases. 

He is a five-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger, the 2012 American League Rookie of the Year and 2014 American League MVP. He also finished as the runner-up in MVP voting in 2012, 2013 and 2015.

Trout drilled 41 home runs last year, tallied 111 RBI in 2014 and demonstrated his speed in 2012 with 49 stolen bases.

If Trout misses any time, Nick Buss or Shane Robinson will likely see action it center field for the 72-87 Angels.

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Jake Arrieta Has Gone from NL Cy Young Winner to Just Another Guy

Through the first two months of the MLB season, it seemed as if Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta was cruising toward a nine-figure contract and recognition as one of baseball’s best at his position.

Arrieta followed up his 2015 Cy Young campaign by posting a 1.74 ERA through his first 15 starts, the highlight of which was a no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds on April 21. Then on June 27 against the same Cincinnati team he no-hit a little more than two months earlier, it all came to a screeching halt, and Arrieta’s surging stardom took a U-turn.

That day, Arrieta needed 93 pitches to make it through five innings, walked five and gave up five earned runs. His ERA since then has been 4.44. Since August 29, he has played even worse, posting an ERA of 5.30.

Reading those numbers might make you think your eyes are failing you, given the high hopes the Cubs had for their once infallible ace.

Truth is, Arrieta has looked little like a Cy Young Award winner through most of this season, and hardly the Cubs’ ace. Really, he’s been irrelevant to any success Chicago has had.

It was all underscored Wednesday, when Arrieta pitched his worst game of the year against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The right-hander lasted only five innings and gave up seven runs on 10 hits.

His ERA remains respectable at 3.10 but is the product of his hot start. It’s not representative of the pitcher he has been since late June—definitively Chicago’s No. 3 starter.

More specifically: He can no longer be relied upon to win games in October.

Luckily for the World Series-starved Cubs, though, they have enough in their arsenal to make Arrieta’s struggles a footnote in a still promising season.

While debate about how Chicago might set its rotation for the playoffs has permeated the clubhouse since the team clinched the NL Central, Arrieta’s most recent performance has almost assured that lefty Jon Lester and right-hander Kyle Hendricks will be the team’s top two starting pitchers in the playoffs.

Hendricks (1.99) and Lester (2.28) are one-two in MLB ERA, giving the Cubs all the pitching the team needs to win a World Series.

Sure, it would be nice if Arrieta could channel his mojo from earlier this season. But two upper-echelon pitchers is all a team needs to have success in October.

Having clinched the division so early, Chicago will be able to choose whom it wants to pitch in each game of the NLDS. In such a scenario, a team’s top two pitchers will pitch three games in the five-game series, exactly the number needed to win.

So as long as Hendricks and Lester pitch as they have throughout the 2016 season, it won’t matter how well—or poorly—Arrieta performs. If the two aforementioned win their scheduled games, the Cubs will advance.

Similarly, the Cubs’ top duo will pitch, at least, four games in a potential seven-game NLCS or World Series. Again, the exact number of games needed to win each of those series.

This isn’t to say the Cubs are somehow the same team when Arrieta struggles. That’s like saying a sundae tastes the same without whipped cream.

Of course the Arrieta of old would make the rotation better.

And if he continues to struggle in the playoffs, it certainly puts more pressure on Lester and Hendricks. The latter’s playoff experience is the same as Arrieta’s. The two got their first taste of October baseball last season.

But Lester has two World Series rings and 14 postseason starts to his name. His experience in the playoffs is the chief reason the Cubs signed him to a six-year, $155 million deal prior to the 2015 season.

They weren’t counting on Arrieta being Cy Young-worthy in 2015. That he was only strengthened Chicago’s rotation.

While Arrieta certainly earned the right to be designated the team’s ace heading into the 2015 playoffs, the original plan was for Lester to be Chicago’s Game 1 starter in the NLDS.

What transpired between his signing and now is irrelevant. Lester has proved all year that he is capable of leading the Cubs staff. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs since July 24, riding a streak of 11 straight quality starts.

If that isn’t enough, his 2.85 career playoff ERA should erase any doubt as to whether Lester can handle duties as Chicago’s playoff ace.

So while Arrieta’s ride toward stardom may have made a sudden stop, his poor play will not hit the brakes on the Cubs’ 2016 season.

 

Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @SethGruen.

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Red Sox Clinch AL East: Highlights, Twitter Reaction to Celebration

The Boston Red Sox clinched their eighth American League East division title on Wednesday thanks to the Baltimore Orioles‘ 3-2 win over the second-place Toronto Blue Jays

However, the celebrations were muted when the New York Yankees overcame a 3-0 ninth-inning deficit, which was capped off by a Mark Teixeira grand slam, to beat Boston 5-3. 

The Red Sox still took to Twitter to confirm that they clinched their spot atop the only division in baseball featuring four teams with a record above .500:

Even though the new division champions were still playing, that didn’t mean the party wasn’t getting started early as Ryan Hannable of WEEI showed the Red Sox’s ownership group celebrating in the box seats of Yankee Stadium:

Only In Boston was just waiting for the team to join the party:

But Lil Wayne couldn’t wait:

However, SportsCenter‘s Jade McCarthy pointed out that it might have been hard to celebrate after Teixeira’s homer:

MLB Network’s Chris Rose didn’t know what to do:

It looked like the Red Sox didn’t know what to do either, as WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford caught a glimpse of the team’s dugout:

Regardless, there were new digs waiting in the visitors’ locker room, via the MLB:

And it didn’t do much to rain on the parade of the Red Sox’s Twitter page or NESN’s Emerson Lotzia Jr.:

Once they got into the locker room, the loss was shrugged off, and Boston was able to do some celebrating in the Bronx, via the Red Sox:

There was no holding back either, per NBC’s Jack Korte:

Especially when it came to Chris Young and his dance moves, via the Red Sox:

The Red Sox came into the regular season with two major storylines: the impending retirement of David Ortiz and the arrival of presumed ace David Price, who signed a seven-year, $217 million contact with the organization in December.

Big Papi looked far more like a slugger in his prime than one ready to start life after baseball. The 40-year-old designated hitter remained a force in the middle of the Sox lineup, racking up more than 30 home runs for the 10th time as he put together one of the best seasons in his Hall of Fame career.

Although his continued success at the plate raised questions about whether he’d reconsider retiring, he’s stayed steadfast in his plan to call it quits after the team’s season comes to a close. He told Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated in July that he could still hit, but his body can’t handle the 162-game grind anymore.

“Because I don’t care,” Ortiz said. “My mind is free. There is no doubt in my mind that I can hit for the next couple of years at this highest level.”

Knowing Ortiz is on the brink of playing his last game in a Red Sox uniform adds an extra layer of intrigue and pressure heading into the playoffs. Few athletes in the rich history of Boston sports have made such a major impact both on the field and in the community.

If Boston is going to capture its fourth championship since 2004, Price will likely need to elevate his level of performance after a mundane first season with the franchise.

While the 31-year-old left-hander sports a strong record, his ERA is the second-highest of his career, in part due to a new career high in homers allowed. He’s pitched better during the second half, however, which provides a silver lining heading into the playoffs.

The strength of the Red Sox is their offense, though. Along with Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Dustin Pedroia have all enjoyed great years at the plate. That’s why the club leads the AL in runs by a massive margin.

That said, rarely can a team merely mash its way to a World Series crown. The Red Sox are going to need their pitching staff to carry its fair share of the burden.

The back end of the bullpen is strong with Craig Kimbrel closing out games alongside the setup tandem of Koji Uehara and Brad Ziegler. There are some questions in the middle innings, however, which puts pressure on the starters to go six strong frames.

Ultimately, the success of Price’s entire first season will be determined by how he performs during the playoffs. But there’s just as much urgency for the likes of Rick Porcello and Drew Pomeranz to help push the city of Boston toward yet another title celebration.

                                                  

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Giants’ Posey Goes Deep for 1,000th Hit of MLB Career

San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey reached the 1,000 career hit milestone in impressive fashion, doing the deed with a solo home run in the fifth inning of Tuesday’s 12-3 win over the Colorado Rockies, per ESPN Stats & Info.

Posey thus became the first player since Rich Aurilia in 2003 to record 1,000 career hits with each and every one coming in a Giants uniform.

Aurilia would later go on to have brief spells with the Settle Mariners, San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds, before eventually finishing out his career with the Giants from 2007 to 2009.

While nothing can be ruled out, it would just be odd to see Posey in any other uniform, as he’s already been at the center of three World Series victories in San Francisco and is currently signed to a contract that runs through 2021, with a club option for 2022.

Well on his way to the Hall of Fame, the 29-year-old catcher should have a very long career, as he’s one of the few players at his position who hits well enough to serve as an everyday corner infielder once his knees are no longer capable of handling the workload behind home plate.

For the time being, durability hasn’t been an issue, with Posey recently eclipsing the 140-game barrier for a fifth consecutive season.

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Gary Sanchez Ties Record for Fastest to Reach 20 Career Home Runs

New York Yankees rookie catcher Gary Sanchez hit his 20th home run of the season (and his career) in Tuesday’s 6-4 win over the Boston Red Sox, tying Wally Berger’s record for fastest player to reach 20 career long balls, needing only 50 major league appearances to accomplish the feat, per ESPN Stats & Info.

The 23-year-old Dominican phenom did the deed in the first inning, launching a two-run shot to left field off Boston Red Sox starting pitcher David Price.

While no longer a realistic part of the wild-card chase, the Yankees did bring Boston’s impressive winning streak to an end at 11 games, putting a dent in their archrival’s bid to earn the No. 1 or 2 seed in the American League playoffs.

However, the Red Sox still enter Wednesday just one-half game behind the AL West-leading Texas Rangers for the top spot, with a one-game lead over the Cleveland Indians for the No. 2 seed.

In any case, Sanchez has been the leader of the Yankees’ impressive second-half youth movement, with the team’s combination of young talent and deep pockets providing hope for a quick return to playoff glory.

Prorated to a 150-game season, Sanchez’s incredible numbers work out to 60 home runs, 96 runs and 126 RBI, though it is worth noting that catchers rarely make 150-plus appearances in a single season these days.

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Cabrera Reaches 30 Home Runs, 100 RBI for 10th Time

Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera recorded his 100th RBI of the season in Tuesday’s 12-0 win over the Cleveland Indians, becoming one of 11 players in major league history to have 10 seasons with both 30 or more home runs and 100 or more RBI, per ESPN Stats & Info.

Unsurprisingly, the 33-year-old slugger reached the milestone in rather spectacular fashion, recording three hits, a home run and five RBI in three at-bats to bring his totals up to 35 homers and 102 RBI for the season.

Only six players have recorded 11 or more seasons with 30 homers and 100 RBI, with Cabrera almost certain to join that group in the coming years, seeing as he’s still going strong in his 14th MLB campaign.

He has already recorded 12 100-RBI seasons through his age-33 campaign, trailing only Jimmie Foxx and Alex Rodriguez (13 apiece) in that measure, per MLB Stat of the Day.

Best of all, Cabrera has been at the center of Detroit’s surprising recovery from a slow start, playing a massive role in the team’s 69-52 record since it fell to six games below .500 on May 14.

With just five games left in the season, Cabrera and Co. badly need a victory in Wednesday’s favorable matchup against Indians starter Zach McAllister.

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