Kuzul

First, let’s get this out of the way: Jose Fernandez won’t come cheap, if he comes at all.

The Miami Marlins are under no obligation to trade the 23-year-old budding ace. And if they do, they’ll demand a king’s ransom.

Yet the rumors won’t go away. Fernandez has been linked to multiple potential suitors this winter, but none more than the Los Angeles Dodgers, who need a front-line starter after Zack Greinke rode off into the desert for a massive payday with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

There are roadblocks and reasons for skepticism, to be sure. But Los Angeles is one of the few clubs that could theoretically net Fernandez without completely crippling its farm system, as we’ll examine shortly.

First, a look at where things stand. The Dodgers “are staying in touch with the Marlins” about Fernandez, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported Dec. 21. At the same time, Rosenthal added, “it remains difficult to imagine the teams matching up on a trade unless Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria decides he wants Fernandez gone.”

Fernandez’s bumpy relationship with Miami’s front office and his teammates is just one part of a toxic circus in South Beach, as Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller recently detailed. 

When asked if he’d like to remain a Marlin, Fernandez said he’s “not allowed to comment,” per Walter Villa of the Miami Herald. Which sounds an awful lot like thinly veiled code for, “Heck no,” or perhaps something less printable.

Again, though, Miami doesn’t have to deal him. He’s under club control for the next three years. And while his 2014 Tommy John surgery and last season’s biceps strain raise injury red flags, the 336 strikeouts and 2.40 ERA he’s tallied in 289 big league innings make him one of the most tantalizing talents in baseball.

Just the thought of him slotted next to Clayton Kershaw at the top of the rotation should leave L.A. fans drooling onto their Dodger Dogs.

So what would Los Angeles have to give up to land him? Let’s start with the haul the D-Backs surrendered to get Shelby Miller from the Atlanta Braves and go from there.

For Miller—who’s two years older than Fernandez and has a significantly lower ceiling—Arizona sacrificed shortstop and No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson, center fielder Ender Inciarte and pitching prospect Aaron Blair. The Marlins, no doubt, would demand similar pieces and more for Fernandez.

In fact, as Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported, before the Miller trade, the Marlins and Diamondbacks were discussing a deal that would have featured Swanson, Inciarte and Blair, plus pitcher Patrick Corbin and infielder Brandon Drury. That’s a top prospect, a secondary prospect and multiple big league-ready players.

Whew.

Could the Dodgers make that happen without hopelessly mortgaging the future? Depending on whether the Marlins are willing to play ball, the answer is a definite maybe. 

Let’s start with the prospects. Infielder Corey Seager, who impressed in his MLB debut last year, should be off-limits. But Julio Urias—L.A.’s No. 2 prospect and the top left-handed pitching prospect in the game, according to MLB.com—could be an enticing centerpiece. 

Urias, still just 19 years old, rose as high as Triple-A last season. Overall, he owns a 2.91 ERA and an impressive 264 strikeouts in 222.1 minor league frames.

Losing him would hurt, no question, but the Dodgers would be replacing him with a more fully developed ace. And L.A. has five more pitchers—right-handers Jose De Leon, Frankie Montas, Grant Holmes, Walker Buehler and Chris Anderson—among its top 10 prospects.

As for secondary pieces, the Dodgers could toss in speedy Micah Johnson—the fifth-best second base prospect in baseball, per MLB.com—whom they acquired in the three-team swap that sent Todd Frazier from the Cincinnati Reds to the Chicago White Sox. 

And perhaps Miami would be interested in reacquiring catcher Austin Barnes, who was shipped to Los Angeles in the Dee Gordon trade last December. Barnes, the Dodgers’ No. 13 prospect, posted an .869 OPS in Triple-A and got a cup of coffee in the big leagues.

According to ESPN.com’s Mark Saxon, losing Barnes in the Gordon trade “stung most” for the Fish. Could a potential reunion sweeten the pot now?

OK, so that’s one superlative prospect, one good one and another solid chip that we know Miami likes. We’re getting warm, but we’re not there yet.

Remember, the D-Backs supposedly dangled Inciarte for Fernandez and ultimately sent him to Atlanta. The Dodgers, too, have a promising young outfielder by the name of Joc Pederson.

Yes, Pederson’s production tailed off significantly in the second half, and he finished with an anemic .210 average. But he teased huge power, blasting 26 dingers and putting on a jaw-dropping display at the Home Run Derby.

He’s also got plus speed and excellent defensive tools. And, like Fernandez, he’s just 23, meaning there’s room for growth. Just the spectacle of him and Giancarlo Stanton taking batting practice together should put butts in the seats at Marlins Park.

If the Dodgers were to move Pederson—and, to be clear, there’s no indication he’s on the block—they’d need to plug a hole in the outfield, possibly by signing a free agent in the Dexter Fowler or Denard Span mold.

A package of Pederson, Urias, Johnson, Barnes and maybe one more prospect from the bottom of L.A.’s top 20 if the Marlins demand quantity might feel like too much to jettison. And it is a lot. But the Dodgers would still be left with eight of their top 10 prospects and would retain Seager, their brightest rising star.

At the same time, that still might not be enough for Loria and Miami, who could hold out for Seager as well. If that’s the case, the Dodgers should move on, assuming they haven’t already. 

Los Angeles reportedly met with Japanese ace Kenta Maeda in Southern California on Christmas Eve. And even with Greinke, David Price and Johnny Cueto off the board, there are high-upside free-agent options, including left-handers Scott Kazmir and Wei-Yin Chen.

None of those names, though, matches the potential impact of Fernandez. Maybe the Marlins truly aren’t selling for anything less than a blow-up-the-farm overpay. But the Dodgers should keep asking, and they should offer the gaudiest deal they can without going over the cliff.

Jose Fernandez won’t come cheap. If he comes, however, he’ll be a game-changer worth paying for—within some semblance of reason.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. 

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Yoenis Cespedes had help, but the fact is the New York Mets were just two games over .500 when he arrived and National League champions when he left. Cespedes isn’t perfect, but the fact is his teams have gone 334-229 in games he has started and 179-229 when he hasn’t.

He’s a game-changer, and with the Mets he was a season-changer. And while they could justify not re-signing him for baseball reasons (not wanting to play him every day in center field) or for money reasons (the owners aren’t going to let the payroll grow very much, if at all), the Mets are going to miss him and some other team is going to be very happy to get him.

Who will that other team be? The Cespedes market has generated surprisingly few strong rumors, but Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com provided a perhaps-significant update Tuesday afternoon on Twitter:

So maybe Cespedes becomes the second big addition the Chicago White Sox make this winter, after their trade for third baseman Todd Frazier. Or maybe he becomes the outfield bat the Baltimore Orioles have sought since losing Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz to free agency.

He’d be a nice fit with the Los Angeles Angels or the San Francisco Giants, the two teams whose left fielders had the fewest RBI in the major leagues in 2015. But Angels owner Arte Moreno recently told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times his team is “probably going to be out” of the free-agent left fielder sweepstakes, and the Giants already spent a lot of money this winter adding Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to their rotation.

The White Sox and Orioles make sense. The White Sox might make the most sense of all, even though they already have three starting outfielders in Melky Cabrera, Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia.

Those three guys combined hit only 39 home runs last season. Cespedes hit 35 all by himself. The White Sox as a team hit the fewest home runs in the American League, an incredible stat for a team that plays home games at U.S. Cellular Field.

Adding Frazier should help. Adding Frazier and Cespedes would really help.

Suddenly, the White Sox would be what they were supposed to be last year: a true contender in the American League Central.

The division includes the World Series champions, and some Kansas City Royals fans would be quick to point out that their team won the AL Central by 12 games over the second-place Minnesota Twins (and finished 19 games ahead of the White Sox). I’ll repeat my claim that it’s now the most interesting division in baseball, in part because it’s the one division where all five teams seemingly believe they can win it in 2016.

That may or may not be true in the American League East, where even though Cespedes could be a big help in Baltimore, he may not be big enough. Unless the Orioles are prepared to sign Cespedes and Chris Davis—doubtful, given that signing either one would require the biggest contract in team history—Cespedes would be more of a replacement than an addition.

And given that the Orioles were a .500 team with Davis hitting 47 home runs, it’s hard to argue Cespedes turns them into champions.

It would be an easier argument with the Angels, where Mike Trout could use a little help and Albert Pujols will be coming back from surgery on his right foot. It would be an easier argument with the Giants, where the Cueto and Samardzija signings were big, but the lineup still looks a little light.

It would be easier with the Mets, if you could trust Cespedes playing center field, or with the Detroit Tigers, if they hadn’t needed their available funds to fix a broken pitching staff.

It would also be easier to predict where he’ll end up if the market wasn’t flooded with outfielders. Jason Heyward has signed, but Justin Upton and Alex Gordon remain as free-agent options for any team interested in Cespedes. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported Tuesday on Twitter that the White Sox have considered Gordon as well as Cespedes.

Nothing against Gordon, but Cespedes would make the bigger impact. Cespedes on the South Side of Chicago might make the biggest impact of all.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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Former MLB third baseman Frank Malzone, who made six All-Star teams with the Boston Red Sox, died Tuesday. He was 85.

The Red Sox confirmed Malzone’s death on their Twitter feed.    

“We mourn the loss of a man we all came to know as ‘Malzie,’ who was venerated by Red Sox fans not only for his great glove at third base but for his blue-collar dedication to his craft,” said Red Sox chairman Tom Werner, per the Boston Globe.

Malzone played for Boston from 1955-1965 and was an instant contributor after becoming a full-time member of the big league roster in 1957. He made the All-Star team and was second in Rookie of the Year voting his first full campaign, marking his first of four straight appearances in the Midsummer Classic.

A solid two-way player, Malzone also won Gold Gloves in each of his first three years. He enjoyed his best offensive season in 1962, hitting 21 home runs and driving in 95 runs. Because Malzone was a bit of a late bloomer—he was 27 during his rookie season—his reign near the top of the sport did not last long.

After returning to All-Star form in 1963 and 1964, Malzone’s performance quickly dipped in his final two MLB seasons. He left the Red Sox in 1966 for a stint with the California Angels, playing only 82 games before retiring after the season.

Overall, Malzone finished with 133 home runs, 728 RBI and a .274/.315/.399 slash line. He returned to the Red Sox organization following his playing career, serving as a scout and working in player development for decades.

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Major League Baseball trade rumors are hot this time of year. The New York Yankees landed former Cincinnati Reds closer Aroldis Chapman in a deal for four minor leaguers Monday, and there should be plenty more moves on the horizon.

Rumors surrounding Colorado Rockies outfielders have been swirling this week, per Jon Morosi of Fox Sports. He reported the St. Louis Cardinals have talked with Colorado about trading for an outfielder, and the Rockies have three available.

CarGo Among Those Available to Be Traded

Carlos Gonzalez enjoyed a career year with the Rockies in 2015, slashing .271/.325/.540 with 40 home runs and 97 RBI. The Rockies need pitching, and the Cardinals need an outfielder after losing Jason Heyward to the Chicago Cubs in free agency.

Scott Gelman of MLB Daily Dish said a trade makes sense in regard to the positions, but Gonzalez may not be the Colorado outfielder the Cardinals need:

Colorado is reportedly shopping all three of its outfielders, but Carlos Gonzalez might not be realistic option for the Cardinals.

[Charlie] Blackmon, 29, is coming off a strong 2015 campaign during which he batted .287/.347/.450 to complement 17 home runs and 58 RBIs. He also stole 43 bases and would add a left-handed bat to St. Louis’ outfield.

[Corey] Dickerson, 26, would also add a left handed bat, but he could prove to be costly in a trade since he had a better season than Blackmon. Over 65 contests last season, Dickerson batted .304/.333/.536 to complement 10 home runs and 31 RBIs.

Gonzalez has been linked to multiple clubs this winter, and the Rockies do not appear to be lowering the price.

Regardless of whether or not it is done via a trade, the Cardinals need to add at least one outfielder. The Rockies have three productive options to choose from, and St. Louis has its share of desirable prospects.

Gonzalez is owed $37 million over the next two years, which is why Gelman feels he may not be the answer for St. Louis: “The Rockies are shopping their outfielders and the Cardinals have a need. But Colorado’s asking price will likely remain too high.”

The Cardinals don’t typically throw money at high-priced free agents, so adding a 30-year-old outfielder via trade for that much money is not likely. Blackmon is eligible for arbitration in 2016 after making just $517,000 in 2015, while Dickerson is in the same boat and made $512,500 last season.

Like Gelman said, the interest is there, but the two sides may be far apart. If Gonzalez isn’t shipped to St. Louis, look for him to land somewhere else in 2016, while the jury is still out on the fates of Blackmon and Dickerson.

Teams Interested in Detroit’s Castellanos 

Detroit Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos was a first-round draft pick in 2010 but has failed to live up to expectations. In what amounts to two full seasons, Castellanos has averaged a slash line of .257/.304/.405 with 13 home runs and 72 RBI.

However, Tony Paul of the Detroit News said there is interest among MLB teams in the 23-year-old infielder: “Another Tiger who could be traded, Nick Castellanos—yes, there have been inquiring phone calls—wouldn’t be nearly enough to balance the books to sign an outfielder. Castellanos still barely makes the league minimum.”

Paul was referring to the fact Detroit is trying to stay as close to the $189 million luxury-tax threshold as it can this season, making it tough to sign a big-time free-agent outfielder, and Castellanos doesn’t do much in the way of getting money off the books.

Patrick OKennedy of SB Nation’s Bless You Boys said it would not be worth trading Castellanos because of his cheap contract and the fact his best days are most likely ahead of him:

There is no money to be saved by dealing Castellanos, who earns near the major league minimum. At best, the Tigers might be able to move him for a similarly cost-controlled player who brings more offensive production. They would need to see a greater marginal difference in the player acquired over what they have in left field, than they would lose by subbing out Castellanos for Dixon Machado or Mike Aviles. …

It would take a unique situation for the Tigers to be willing to trade Castellanos. Perhaps a team looking for a third baseman with some extra depth in the corner outfield positions could be interested in such a trade. It would be a move for instant gratification, with the risk that the Tigers’ former first-round draft pick has a breakout season at age 24 or 25, playing in another uniform. I wouldn’t bet on that happening.

OKennedy‘s points are good ones. It would be tough for Detroit to watch Castellanos excel somewhere else, much like the World Series champion Kansas City Royals would have done if they had given up on their young, struggling third baseman Mike Moustakas, who ended up in the 2015 All-Star Game.

Of course, when multiple teams are interested, it never hurts to listen. If new executive vice president of baseball operations and general manager Al Avila can find the perfect fit, it might make sense to pull the trigger. However, don’t count on that happening. 

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Just when you thought it was safe to take a break from the Hot Stove League, the New York Yankees shocked the baseball universe by sending a four-player package to the Cincinnati Reds for All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman, a player many believed was immovable due to his current off-field issues.

It’s a deal that was seemingly consummated in a matter of hours, if you go by what information the rumor mill provided, but chances are it’s a deal that the two clubs had been working on for a few days, if not longer.

General managers talk to each other all the time about potential moves, and sometimes, months go by before those talks are revisited. We’ll touch on some of those scenarios on the pages that follow, as deals that may have made sense at the trade deadline still do, in some form, heading into 2016.

Keep in mind these proposed deals are only ideas and pure speculation. Unless otherwise noted, there’s no indication any of them has actually been discussed.

Begin Slideshow

Every year in MLB, we’re treated to the out-of-nowhere emergence of more than one new star. 

While it may be out of the blue to most of the baseball world, players like Matt Duffy, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts all showed signs that a breakout was on the horizon during the previous season. 

There are a handful of MLB players that fit that mold once again as we close in on the start of the 2016 campaign. Over the next few slides, we’ll identify a handful of under-the-radar players that are poised to become the league’s next breakout stars. 

Hurlers like Anthony DeSclafani and Trevor May provided their teams with quality production last season, even if their ERA said otherwise. Digging deeper into the stats proves that with a year of experience and a little better luck, both hurlers are candidates to take the next step in 2016.

In terms of position players, Enrique Hernandez, Ender Inciarte and David Peralta provided glimpses of their abilities last season, too. If each player can put together a full season of production, they’ll continue their ascent to MLB stardom. 

Let us know what you think in the comments section below. Are you excited to see these players on your team this season? Who else do you think has breakout potential? 

Let’s dive right into our list. 

Begin Slideshow

When Kenta Maeda took the mound for one of his final starts with the Hiroshima Carp, about three dozen major league scouts made their way to Koshien Stadium to watch. That’s three dozen, as in more than 30, meaning on that September afternoon, some big league teams had more than one set of eyes watching the 27-year-old right-hander.

And that was for just one of Maeda’s 29 regular-season starts in 2015.

“He’s probably been scouted as much as any [Japanese pitcher],” one American League scout said last week. “I don’t think there’s any mystery.”

Oh, but yes there is.

Some major league team is likely to give Maeda a whole bunch of money in the near future, and the first question everyone will be asking is whether he’s worth it. He may not be the ultimate unknown, but signing him isn’t really just like signing David Price or Zack Greinke, or even Mike Leake or Yovani Gallardo.

Even in the modern baseball world, where you can look up Maeda’s Japanese professional stats on Baseball-Reference.com and where there’s a Kenta Maeda channel on YouTube featuring highlights and interviews, we still don’t really know how eight seasons of success in Japan will translate when he’s pitching in the United States.

We will soon know which team is going to take that chance, because the posting system that provides big league teams with the opportunity to take Maeda also gives them a Jan. 8 deadline to sign him. The Carp will then get $20 million from that team.

That team could well be the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have a long history of international signings and haven’t exactly hidden their interest in Maeda. After he visited Los Angeles earlier this month, reporter Joseph Kim tweeted this picture of the Dodger Stadium video board:

Plenty of other teams like Maeda, too, including those of two scouts who have seen him regularly and shared their reports with Bleacher Report. A Japanese professional baseball executive also weighed in, and all three men were offered anonymity because they were offering opinions their clubs would prefer they didn’t share publicly.

The two scouts, one from an American League team and one from a National League team, were in general agreement that Maeda will be a solid major league starter who will fall a little shy of ace status. In terms of starters who have come from Japan, think Hiroki Kuroda or Hisashi Iwakuma rather than Masahiro Tanaka or Yu Darvish.

“A solid mid-rotation guy,” the American League scout said. “If you’re expecting him to be a 1 or a 2, I don’t think that’s fair to him.”

“A prototypical blue-collar starter,” the other scout, who works for a National League team, said. “Think of a guy who might go 13-9 or 14-10.”

The Japanese executive shot a little higher.

“I see him as being as good as Tanaka in MLB,” the executive, who doesn’t work for the Carp and has no financial stake in how Maeda does, said. “And he might not take much time to transform into a solid starting pitcher.”

Maeda throws a fastball normally clocked between 89 and 93 mph, but the NL scout said he’s seen 94 or 95 mph at times, “if he needs it.” He throws a cutter and a changeup that showed improvement late this season. He’s a strike-thrower, with only 41 walks in 206.1 innings this past season for the Carp, and both scouts praised his athleticism and said he holds runners.

The one concern, the AL scout said, is how Maeda will adapt to pitching on a major league schedule. Starting pitchers in Japan normally start only one game a week, whereas in a typical major league rotation, a pitcher will often be asked to pitch on just four days’ rest.

The adjustment can be significant. The New York Yankees still try to give Tanaka extra rest when they can. Darvish said in 2014 he would prefer a six-man rotation, per David Waldstein of the New York Times.

“I like everything about [Maeda],” the AL scout said. “But my biggest concern is that he’s been pitching once every seven days. His stuff plays every seven days. Will it still play every five days?”

Those concerns didn’t keep the Yankees from giving Tanaka a seven-year, $155 million contract, on top of the $20 million posting fee. The Texas Rangers signed Darvish under the old posting system, paying a posting fee of almost $52 million and then giving him a six-year, $56 million contract.

Tanaka and Darvish throw harder than Maeda, and both were seen as having “strikeout stuff” that scouts say Maeda lacks (although he did fan 175 batters in his 206.1 innings in Japan).

“He’s a better pitcher than Darvish, but he doesn’t have Darvish’s stuff,” the NL scout said. “But he’s certainly as good as Iwakuma or Kuroda.”

That wouldn’t be bad. Kuroda didn’t come to the major leagues until he was 33, but in seven seasons, he had 79 wins and a 3.45 ERA. Iwakuma, who was 31 when he jumped to the Seattle Mariners, is 47-25 with a 3.17 ERA in four seasons.

He agreed to a three-year, $45 million free-agent contract with the Dodgers before a failed physical caused the team to back out of the deal. Even then, he re-signed with the Mariners on a contract that only guarantees him one year and $12 million but could end up going three years, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Iwakuma has had injury issues dating back to his time in Japan. Maeda had some shoulder issues in 2014, according to reports in Japan, but none in 2015. In any case, he averaged more than 200 innings a year over his final seven seasons, which is impressive because Japanese teams play 143-game seasons and rotation usage limits starters to around 30 starts.

Besides his consistency and durability, Maeda earned respect in Japan for what the executive called his “plus-plus intensity.” And while the scouts rated his stuff as good but not great, Japanese hitters voted his slider as the best in the league, in a recent survey by Fuji TV.

“The guy simply can win,” the executive, who is also familiar with American baseball, said.

The guy also proved his interest in competing at the highest level by asking the Carp to post him after each of the last three seasons. The team declined the first two times but agreed to make him available to major league teams this winter.

Because of the constant rumors he would be posted soon, dating back at least to when Maeda pitched for Japan in the World Baseball Classic in March 2013, teams have followed him closely.

He shouldn’t be too much of a mystery to them.

Now, hopefully, he’s not quite as much of a mystery to you, either.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Los Angeles Angels probably don’t need to be told this, but they should feel blessed to have Mike Trout. He’s been a regular since 2012—a historically awesome regular since 2012.

But now for something that maybe the Angels do need to be told: They should be mindful of Trout’s historical awesomeness possibly going to waste.

Though the Angels didn’t watch Trout win his second straight American League MVP in 2015, they did see him enjoy his fourth straight MVP-caliber season. The 24-year-old center fielder led the AL in OPS at .991 and in WAR at 9.4, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

While we’re on the topic, WAR is still the No. 1 fan of Trout’s career to date. He rates as the best player in baseball history through the age of 23. Further, August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs dug deeper and found that only nine players have ever had better four-year runs than Trout at any age.

Consider this your midwinter reminder that Trout is really something else. Feel free to take a moment to pay homage to your personal Mike Trout shrine. We all have one, folks.

But now we must move on to where the Angels stand in all this.

The Angels aren’t about to lament what Trout has done for them, but they can’t be happy about how they’ve failed to capitalize on his greatness. They won 98 games and made the playoffs in 2014, but their drop to 85 wins in 2015 made it three of four seasons they’ve fallen short of October. On the results spectrum, that’s toward the “suboptimal” end.

And right now it’s looking like the Angels haven’t done enough to avoid a similar fate in 2016.

Granted, they haven’t been laying low this winter. Their trade for Yunel Escobar should upgrade their offense, and adding Andrelton Simmons and Geovany Soto will definitely improve their defense.

But is that sufficient?

According to FanGraphs‘ WAR projections, the Angels aren’t likely to be the best team in the AL West in 2016. In fact, they project to be worse than the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners and only as good as the Texas Rangers. This is also suboptimal.

We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: WAR projections aren’t gospel. But it’s sometimes hard to argue with them, and this is one of those times.

Trout has been awesome, but the problem the Angels have had is giving him enough support. That’s a lingering concern that hasn’t necessarily been eased by their activity this winter. Escobar‘s probable offensive upgrade may be mitigated by Simmons and Soto likely being offensive downgrades.

There are outstanding issues elsewhere too. Trout is flanked by holes in left field and second base as well as a veteran in Albert Pujols who’s only getting older and more banged up. The Angels do have solid depth in their starting rotation, but it could be better in terms of talent.

This sounds like a job for the free-agent market, a place where the Angels have made noise in the past. And if they really wanted to, they could do it again this winter. Still out there is a selection of left fielders and starting pitchers and at least one good second baseman.

The trouble, of course, is the Angels seem wary of sticking to their old habits on the open market. And in fairness, one can see why.

Over the last five seasons, the Angels’ Opening Day payroll has tended to hover around $150 million. With $142.3 million in salary commitments and $17.7 million in projected arbitration payouts, per MLB Trade Rumors, the Angels are already slated for a franchise-high $160 million payroll in 2016.

What’s more, figures compiled by Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register show the Angels’ adjusted payroll is pretty close to the $189 million luxury-tax threshold for 2016. As a result, any free-agent signing will push them over that and force them to pay a penalty.

At the outset of the offseason, that’s something Angels owner Arte Moreno seemed willing to live with under the right circumstances. As he told Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, “If it’s the right player in the right situation, we’ll do whatever is needed.”

Evidently, neither the right player nor the right situation has emerged. The way things stand now, the Angels are sending the message that they believe they’re better off not spending big money this winter.

From the outside looking in, however, it’s too easy to question their logic.

It’s arguably enough that the Angels don’t look like the clear favorites in the AL West heading into 2016—or even a clear wild-card contender, for that matter. There’s a real possibility of them making it four out of five prime-Trout seasons wasted.

Again, suboptimal.

If there’s something that could justify another postseason-less year for the Angels in 2016, it’s the notion that their best days will be in 2017 and beyond. This seems to be the angle the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are taking this winter—and for good reason. Both clubs are in a position to integrate young talent in the coming seasons, perhaps laying the groundwork for dynasties.

The Angels, though, aren’t even in the same ocean as the Yankees and Dodgers, much less the same boat.

The Angels’ farm system doesn’t feature a single prospect in MLB.com’s top 100, and even that may understate the problem. As Christopher Crawford and the Baseball Prospectus crew put it, “There are good systems. There are poor systems. Then there’s 50 pounds of effluence, and then there’s the Marlins. Add another 50 pounds, and you’ve finally reached the Angels.”

This puts the Angels at quite a disadvantage, not just when it comes to building from within, but in building through trades. Take away those two avenues, and spending is the only team-building strategy at their disposal.

To this end, maybe the Angels’ goal is to spend next winter when C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver and others will go off the books. But the big problem there is that next winter’s free-agent market isn’t going to be anywhere close to as loaded as this year’s. After Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Gomez, there aren’t going to be many in-their-prime talents.

A better idea would be for the Angels to wait until after 2018 when an absurdly deep class of free agents will be available. But “better” in this case doesn’t mean “perfect.” Among that winter’s valuable free agents will be Garrett Richards, a key piece of the Angels’ current core. Also, the rising costs of Trout’s and Pujols’ contracts will render the Angels without a ton of spending power.

But that’s three whole years from now. If those three seasons go poorly, the Angels would be spending to force their window back open rather than spending to open their window even wider.

The latter is what they could be doing right now and, indeed, something they at least seem tempted to do.

Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times has reported the Angels aren’t in serious talks with players such as Justin Upton, Alex Gordon and Yoenis Cespedes. But reports from DiGiovanna, Jon Morosi of Fox Sports and Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News indicate those three are at least on the Angels’ radar.

And though a deal isn’t likely, Fletcher has reported they’ve also been in touch with former Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick. The Angels seem less hung up on starting pitching, but among the options still out there are Scott Kazmir, Wei-Yin Chen and Yovani Gallardo.

Because the Angels need to restock their farm system, it’s understandable if they’re wary of players with ties to draft-pick compensation. But that list doesn’t include Cespedes or Kazmir, and one can argue the Angels shouldn’t be too fixated on the draft anyway. They hold the No. 20 pick, and the reality is they’re not going to rebuild their system in one draft, no matter what.

In all, the Angels don’t have many excuses not to spend. Their window to contend is open now, and money is all the Angels have to open it as wide as it needs to be.

It’s either that or hope Trout can somehow become even larger than life and single-handedly make the Angels a superpower. But that’s asking a bit much, even of him.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Contract and payroll data courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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What? Did you think the New York Yankees were going to steer clear of star players all winter?

Guess again, friend. The Yankees have gone and acquired a rather big star. In so doing, they have set their immediate future up for quite a bit of intrigue.

As Jack Curry of the YES Network was first to report, the Yankees struck a deal with the Cincinnati Reds on Monday to acquire flame-throwing relief ace Aroldis Chapman. Per the Yankees’ Twitter, here’s the full deal:

Before this, the biggest move the Yankees had made this winter was a roll-of-the-dice trade on the ever-unpredictable Starlin Castro. Suffice it to say, this trade is a bit bigger than that one.

It is, though, also something of a dice roll in its own right.

The elephant in the room here is the alleged domestic violence incident that Chapman was involved in back in October. As Jeff Passan and Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reported, the alleged details involve Chapman choking his girlfriend and firing a gun in anger. MLB‘s investigation into the matter could still lead to a suspension for the 27-year-old left-hander.

That and the bad public relations surrounding the situation were enough to scare the Los Angeles Dodgers away from an agreed-upon trade with the Reds. It was also apparently enough to lower Chapman’s trade value.

But for the Yankees, this is obviously the bright spot. The Yankees can expect to face criticism—and not unwarranted criticism, mind you—for welcoming Chapman with open arms while he’s tied to such a hot-button controversy, but it’s frankly hard to say they’re making a mistake.

MLB.com’s rankings state that the Yankees are not giving up any of their top five prospects for Chapman, which makes the package they’re paying look laughable relative to those paid for fellow relief aces Ken Giles and Craig Kimbrel this winter. And though we don’t know what the Dodgers were going to trade for Chapman, Craig Edwards of FanGraphs is right to speculate it wouldn’t have been this mediocre.

If Chapman isn’t suspended, the Yankees will have paid a small price for a full season of his services. If he is suspended, they could actually come out even more ahead in the long run. A small suspension will only sideline him for a portion of 2016. As Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports pointed out, a longer suspension could delay Chapman’s free agency until after 2017.

In other words: This is a questionable PR move for the Yankees but also a strong baseball trade. The only unknown now is where they go from here, and the two possible directions they can go in are both appealing.

Door No. 1 involves the Yankees simply adding Chapman to what they already have in their bullpen and going from there. At this, please try to contain your excitement. 

What the Yankees already had in their bullpen, of course, was right-hander Dellin Betances and left-hander Andrew Miller. They combined for a 1.74 ERA and 231 strikeouts in 145.2 innings in 2015, making them the most dominant duo of relievers in the sport.

And now along comes Chapman. Using a steady stream of triple-digit fastballs and wipeout sliders, all he’s done since becoming a full-time closer in 2012 is post a 1.90 ERA in 255 appearances, striking out a staggering 16.1 batters per nine innings along the way. 

With Chapman in the same bullpen as Betances and Miller, whether the Yankees’ bullpen now boasts the best trio of relievers in baseball history is a fair question to ask. At the least, this note from MLB.com’s Andrew Simon makes it clear that the Yankees have the modern game’s three most overpowering relievers all under one roof:

This is where it’s hard not to think of the Kansas City Royals and all the success they’ve enjoyed with a three-headed bullpen monster over the last two seasons. And though the Yankees’ roster isn’t as complete or well-balanced as the Royals’, there’s no question they’re going to be able to shorten games as well as the Royals have been able to.

According to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, that’s the whole idea for now. But as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported, Cashman is also open to Door No. 2:

To anyone who’s been paying close attention to the winter rumor mill, the idea of the Yankees trading Miller shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Of all the ways the Yankees could shed some payroll, trading Miller and the $27 million remaining over the three years left on his contract is arguably the only one within reach. He’s also one of the only established players they have who could bring back something of value in a trade.

For example, a starting pitcher. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that trading Miller for a starter has been on the club’s mind, and that makes sense. The Yankees’ rotation has talent, but depth is needed to account for the question marks hanging over Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and CC Sabathia.

But then, it’s not a given that the Yankees would target a starting pitcher in a trade involving Miller. According to Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York, Cashman believes his rotation is “full.” One therefore wonders if he’d only move Miller to fill another need, such as an outfield upgrade.

Wherever Cashman decides to go from here, it’ll be hard for him to make his trade for Chapman look like a bad baseball move. It may be a questionable move from a PR perspective, but the Yankees are either getting a truly epic bullpen or a more complete team out of it.

If you were waiting for the Yankees to do something a little bolder this winter, well, there you go.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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At one point, closer Aroldis Chapman appeared destined for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Investigations into an alleged domestic violence incident, however, squashed those plans and forced the Cincinnati Reds to pivot.

Now, Chapman is headed to the New York Yankees in a trade first reported by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Jack Curry of YES Network reported the Reds will get four minor leaguers in exchange for Chapman, but it won’t be any of Greg Bird, Aaron Judge, Jorge Mateo and Gary Sanchez.

Rosenthal reported the Marlins were also after Chapman, but that the Reds preferred the Yankees’ offer.

Chapman, a four-time All-Star, was previously viewed as one of the most attractive trade chips on the market. His alleged legal troubles, however, made him a harder sell to prospective buyers. 

As Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown and Jeff Passan reported on Dec. 7, “Chapman allegedly fired eight gunshots in the garage of his Miami-area home following an October argument with his girlfriend in which she told police he ‘choked’ her and pushed her against a wall.” According to their report, “word of the incident held up the [Dodgers] deal.”

Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi noted not all teams were dissuaded from dealing for Chapman despite the looming threat of a possible suspension. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the Yankees “do anticipate that Chapman will deal with some kind of suspension.”

Despite a potential ban, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters he feels the team has “done [its] due diligence to the best of [its] abilities.”

If Chapman is suspended, that time won’t count toward his MLB service, per Rosenthal and Morosi. As a result, the acquiring party could gain an extra year of team control out of the deal. At present, Chapman is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2017, per Spotrac.

Parting with Chapman has always made sense for the Reds. Cincinnati is ready to engage in a rebuild, and the team doesn’t need a high-quality closer if it knows losses are likely in the near future. 

“We’re in a tough division,” Walt Jocketty, the Reds’ president of baseball operations, said in November, according to Rosenthal. “We’ve got to be realistic about it.”

Chapman has topped 30 saves in each of the last four seasons. During the 2015 campaign, Chapman finished with the eighth-most saves (33) in the National League. Among closers who tallied at least 20 saves in the Senior Circuit last season, Chapman was by far the most prolific from a strikeout standpoint. 

In 65 games, Chapman whiffed 116 batters to finish with a staggering rate of 15.7 strikeouts per nine innings, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

The 27-year-old boasts a devastating fastball-slider combination, and he is one of the most dominant bullpen arms in baseball.

Dealing for him at this stage of his career carries risk, however. Not only is Chapman facing the likelihood of discipline from the league, but he’ll soon be a free agent. And once he hits the open market, he’ll command gobs of cash. 

That said, Chapman’s talent is unique enough to splurge on—even if he is just a short-term rental. He figures to help a team that ranked 17th in ERA this past season at 4.05.

Although Andrew Miller did well for New York last year in converting 36 of his 38 save opportunities in 2015, he has been the subject of trade rumors. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier in December that the Dodgers and Houston Astros were interested in him. It will be interesting to see what Miller’s future holds with Chapman’s arrival.

Commendable as Miller’s efforts have been, the Yankees haven’t had a closer of Chapman’s ability since the legendary Mariano Rivera. It’s quite a standard to live up to, but Chapman certainly has the physical tools to go down in New York lore.

But that’s a bold assumption to make, considering he could be out of the Big Apple after only one year. Chapman must put his recent off-field issues behind him and prove himself promptly to secure a future with baseball’s winningest franchise.

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