Archive for December, 2015

Fact or Fiction on All of MLB Offseason Week 8’s Free-Agency, Trade Rumors

Two months have passed since the Kansas City Royals celebrated their first World Series championship in 30 years, yet we sit here on New Year’s Eve with more questions than answers about which team—or teams—are in the best position to take the crown from the defending champs.

While we’ve seen a pair of notable moves go down in recent days—Scott Kazmir became the fifth left-handed starter in the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation, while Aroldis Chapman joined an already filthy New York Yankees bullpen—there are still multiple game-changing players available.

Is one of those game-changers closer to making a decision on where his future home will be? Could one of baseball’s most stubborn veterans be resolved to becoming more flexible in the new year? Will a former All-Star shortstop reinvent himself as the next coming of Ben Zobrist?

We’ll tackle all of that and more in this week’s edition of Fact or Fiction.

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MLB Power Rankings: Where All 30 Teams Stand Entering 2016

The new year begins Friday, but we are still a couple months away from the start of the 2016 MLB season.

With a number of impact players still sitting in free agency, there will be plenty more action between now and that magical day when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

For now, though, it’s time for an updated look at where all 30 teams stand.

These rankings were last updated on Dec. 10, so any transactions that have taken place between then and now were factored into the changes you’ll see in the following rankings.

As with all offseason power rankings, these are not necessarily meant to be a prediction for the year ahead. Instead, they are a look at how teams would stack up with the rosters they currently have if the season were to start today.

Just something worth keeping in mind when considering where your favorite team falls in the following rankings.

 

Note: This time around we’ve included a projected 25-man Opening Day roster for each team. The roster projections from Roster Resource served as an invaluable starting point in this exercise, though changes were made based on my own opinions.

In the following projected rosters, (R) indicates a player with rookie eligibility remaining, while a bolded player is a newcomer to the team.

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Cliff Lee Can Still Be a Low-Risk, High-Reward Starter for a Contender

The teams are interested and lining up. 

They can certainly smell a potential deal that benefits them when the scent wafts through the offseason air. And the aroma is strong with this one.

One-time ace Cliff Lee is back on the market as a viable rotation option for some contending club. After missing all of the 2015 season because of a partially torn flexor tendon, Lee is back to throwing and hoping to land a spot in a big league rotation for 2016.

While the bidding for Lee could rise to the point that he has a guaranteed major league deal and potentially for more than just one season, he still provides a low-risk, massive-reward kind of incentive because he can help front any rotation if healthy. After all, we are talking about a guy who pitched at an elite level as recently as 2014 when he posted a 2.96 FIP and had a 6.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio, though those numbers came in only 13 starts before the injury.

Let us not be misleading or overly optimistic. Lee is a big risk in terms of staying healthy, but low-risk in terms of what a team would have to commit to land him, relatively speaking about the current free-agent pitching market.

It is more than possible Lee signs with a team and his left elbow never responds the way he or the team hopes. Maybe he makes it to Opening Day but ends up a bad pitcher. The team ends up on the hook for whatever money it assured Lee, and he is gone from baseball forever. That is the worst-case scenario.

Because Lee is 37 years old, and because he’s pitched just 13 times in the last two seasons, that is the likeliest way for all of this to play out. It would be an unfortunate end to a career but not completely shocking considering all the miles Lee has accumulated during his impressive stand.

Bringing the body, and especially the arm, back from all of that trauma taxes it even more, and the likelihood of a successful comeback is small. Or at least that’s how baseball history tells it for pitchers.

But if Lee can indeed come back and recreate what he did in 2014, he could end up being a bargain and a leading candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. And in a dreamer’s world, Lee could even find enough of his old form to be one of the best pitchers in the majors, as he was as recently as 2013 when he had a 2.87 ERA and league-leading 6.94 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 222.2 innings with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The idea of that kind of bounce-back, that kind of reinvention, is why half the league is interested in what Lee brings to the table, both in terms of his medicals and his stuff, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Considering it might not take much of a commitment to sign him, any contending team’s front office would not be doing its job properly if it did not at least window-shop on Lee.

At this point Lee is far removed from 2013, but going back to 2010 and right through the last time he pitched in the majors, the numbers show he is a front-of-the-rotation starter.

Since the start of 2010, Lee has a 2.95 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 7.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 133 ERA+ over 134 starts. In those five seasons, his 26.2 FanGraphs WAR mark is fourth-highest in the majors, the ERA is seventh-lowest and the K/BB ratio is by far the best.

You can see why the interest exists. If Lee even hints at what he’s been in the recent past, a one- or two-year incentive-laden contract could end up as the biggest pitching bargain on the current markets, free-agent or trade.

That leaves plenty of teams in the mix for Lee, who wants to pitch for a contender. The Los Angeles Dodgers are probably out after agreeing to terms with Scott Kazmir on Wednesday, but every other club with a thought of playing in the postseason should be making a run at the lefty. High-payroll clubs like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox and lower-payroll teams like the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates should all be seriously considering Lee.

If the comeback fails, none of those teams are crippled by it since the money and expectations are minimal. If it succeeds, Lee is a game-changing rotation piece that shifts postseason odds.

Whenever Lee signs with a team, the news might not shake the ground. But if he pitches like his recent self in 2016, it would certainly be a seismic shift in either league’s playoff picture.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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MLB’s Biggest 2015-16 Offseason Winners and Losers Entering the New Year

One part of the 2015 MLB season that will persist even after we all change our calendars is the offseason. That makes now as good a time as ever to take stock of what’s going on, and we’re going to do that by honoring the Internet gods with a good, old-fashioned list of offseason winners and losers.

We’ll look at only the five biggest winners and losers of the winter to date. And though we can’t say they’re ranked in any particular order, we can say they range from teams that are and aren’t doing well to specific players who have and haven’t made a killing in free agency.

Step into the box whenever you’re ready.

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These 9 MLB Stars Are the Only Ones Worthy of 2016 HOF Enshrinement

The Hall of Fame ballot arrived in the mail last month, filled with tough choices. Too many steroid guys, too many close calls.

And one sure-fire, no-doubt Hall of Famer.

If the Hall allowed us just one vote a year, this would have been the easiest ballot ever.

Put a check next to Ken Griffey Jr. Sign the ballot and mail it in.

And I would have been fine with that.

There’s an argument to be made that if you’re not sure a guy belongs in the Hall of Fame, he probably doesn’t. There’s an argument that the Hall should belong to guys like Griffey, where you don’t need to study the stats or the Mitchell Report to know he deserves your vote.

But we do study, and we do look beyond the obvious names. We get as many as 10 votes a year, not just one, and some of my colleagues (notably my friend Jim Caple of ESPN.com) have made a strong argument we shouldn’t be limited to 10. The disagreement over whether “steroid guys” should get in has led to ballot congestion, because tainted stars like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens get enough votes to remain on the ballot (more than 5 percent) but not enough to get elected (less than 75 percent).

I understand the debate, but I find it hard to complain, because I used only nine of my 10 available votes. I stopped automatically eliminating guys like Bonds and Clemens two years ago, and I still didn’t get to 10. If anything, the 10-vote limit helps sharpen my decision.

I began with Griffey, one of the easiest calls since I began voting 15 years ago. I quickly added Bonds and Clemens. I took a while to get to nine, and a lot longer to decide against a 10th.

Many of you won’t agree with my Bonds/Clemens call. Plenty will argue about other guys I have on my ballot, and about those I don’t.

I can’t imagine anyone complaining about Griffey.

I love the passion the Hall of Fame voting generates. I’ll even accept the silly name-calling, because I take it simply as proof of that passion.

Rather than a player-by-player rundown, here’s a look into the thought process that went into one ballot (after Griffey).

 

First question: Do I keep voting for the “steroid guys,” as I have the last two years?

I’ve never been totally comfortable voting for Bonds, Clemens and Mark McGwire, because I’ve never been totally comfortable with the idea of having them stand on that stage in Cooperstown, New York, to be celebrated by the game they likely cheated. I didn’t vote for Bonds or Clemens in 2013, the first year they were on the ballot, for exactly that reason.

A year later, I flipped, because I was even less comfortable excluding the “steroid guys” we know about while inevitably voting for many players who were likely just as guilty. Baseball and its players association never allowed us to know which of those players also cheated, because testing and suspensions didn’t come into the game until June 2004.

I fully respect those many colleagues who continue to withhold votes. Neither Bonds nor Clemens has ever reached even 40 percent, with 75 percent required for election. But I don’t want to be the one deciding which players cheated and which didn’t, so in my mind the ultimate choice was between voting for none of the players from that era or considering all of them.

For now, I’ll continue considering all of them, with another test coming next winter when Manny Ramirez (a drug suspension, and retirement to avoid another one) first appears on the ballot.

So Bonds, Clemens and McGwire get check marks on my ballot again this year, and others whose drug use is more suspected than proven remain under consideration as well.

 

Second question: Do I renew my support for the seven players I voted for last year who remain on the ballot?

I used all 10 votes last year, and three of them went to players who were ultimately elected (Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz). If I’d been allowed 11 votes, I may well have given one to Craig Biggio, who also got in.

That left Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling and Alan Trammell.

I revisit every player’s case every year, but after reconsidering all seven I saw no reason to take away any of those votes.

 

Third question: Besides Griffey, do any newcomers belong on the ballot?

Most of the 15 new names on the ballot were easy to dismiss. Sorry, Brad Ausmus, David Eckstein and Mike Sweeney, among others.

You can make a case for closers Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner, and for outfielder Jim Edmonds. Hoffman makes my ballot, because even though saves are an imperfect stat, his 601 are far and away the most of anyone not named Mariano Rivera and helped make him one of the dominant players of his era.

Wagner and Edmonds got serious consideration but fall just short of the dominance you want in a Hall of Famer.

 

Fourth question: Seven holdovers plus two newcomers means one available vote. Who gets it?

For a week, my ballot had those nine names checked. For a week, I had an “almost” list of four names I looked at every day. I saw reasons for voting for Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Jeff Bagwell and Larry Walker, but I only had room for one of them.

In the end, I voted for none of them. The more I looked at the case for each, I realized I wasn’t convinced about any of them. In a vote for the Hall of Fame, I wanted to be convinced. Unless they get in (possible) or get dropped from the ballot, I’ll give them another look next year.

For this year, I stuck with nine.

Some of them have no chance of getting elected this year. Some of them could be hurt because voters who believe there are more than 10 worthy candidates need to make tough choices.

Early estimates suggest a few could get in, but it could be that Ken Griffey Jr. ends up being the only player elected.

And I’d be fine with that.

 

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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Scott Kazmir Fills a Need, but Won’t Turn Tide of Dodgers’ Disappointing Winter

Scott Kazmir is nice. Quite fine, even.

But Scott Kazmir is not enough to fix what is becoming a more uninspiring offseason by the day for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers, three-time defending National League West champions, agreed to a three-year, $48 million contract with the left-handed Kazmir, according to Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi:

On its own, the deal is solid, as the soon-to-be 32-year-old owns a respectable 3.33 ERA over the last two seasons.

But in the vacuum that is the Dodgers’ offseason, one that has seen them let Zack Greinke walk to a rival and Aroldis Chapman’s domestic issues sully a blockbuster trade and Hisashi Iwakuma’s balky medicals nix their agreement, this deal for Kazmir is not enough to say the Dodgers are the favorites in the remade and highly competitive NL West.

The opt-out after one year shows that Kazmir would like to re-establish his value with a good 2016 and that the Dodgers just need a stopgap starter before their young minor league pitchers mature enough to take on full-time roles in their rotation.

“In Scott’s case, he and his representation are aware that next year’s free-agent starting pitching market will probably be a pretty good seller’s market,” Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi told reporters. “From our standpoint, we have a lot of good young pitching that we feel is going to be ready to contribute at some point in 2016 and certainly by 2017.”

The problem is Kazmir, if he is not a front-line arm the way he was for the Oakland A’s during the first half of last season, is not the kind of piece that gives the Dodgers a major boost. In fact, if he pitches like he did down the stretch for the Houston Astros, he is a liability.

As of now, the Dodgers are not a bad club, despite what knee-jerk analysts, misinformed fans and radio talking heads might have you believe.

This team was among the best offensive clubs in baseball last season, and that was with Yasiel Puig out or playing hurt for the majority of 2015. And the offense stands to improve next season if All-Star center fielder Joc Pederson can become more disciplined as a power threat and rookie shortstop Corey Seager produces more than Jimmy Rollins did last season, which shouldn’t be difficult.

Then there is Puig, a player who the misguided believe should be on the scrap heap for offenses no more serious than him being a youthful headache. But he won’t even make $20 million in base salary over the next three years, and when he’s been healthy, he has been among the best. That last part is undeniable.

Oh, and there is Clayton Kershaw, the best thrower of a baseball on the planet. Also undeniable. Plus a dominant closer in Kenley Jansen, even if the rest of the bullpen is seriously suspect.

So people should be inclined to stop bashing the Dodgers as an afterthought within their own division. They might not be the favorite before the new year rings in, but they do not stink to the high heavens.

Kazmir affirms that. He could end up as a quality lefty, one battle-tested in the more difficult American League last season.

In fact, why Kazmir wasn’t more coveted in a market thirsty for pitching is a bit of a mystery. He is aged and he did have a rugged end to 2015, pitching to a gruesome 5.89 ERA over his final nine starts for the Astros (he had a 2.12 ERA over his first 22 starts between the A’s and Astros). But he’s healthy and capable, and he can help the Dodgers if he pitches as he did before his late-season collapse.

However, the Dodgers needed more than help this offseason. They needed significant impact considering they lost Greinke, arguably the best pitcher in the majors last season. And ideally, they needed a right-handed starting pitcher since, with Kazmir, the rotation might be entirely left-handed come Opening Day, though the Dodgers front office does not see that as a major negative.

“That’s something we’ve discussed over the course of the offseason,” Zaidi told reporters of the all-lefty rotation. “It sets you up for a situation where having some balance in the bullpen makes some sense, because you’re going to see a certain type of lineup day-in, day-out when you have an extreme rotation one way or another.”

Chapman would have provided that impact and excitement. Johnny Cueto or Andrew Miller would have, too. A deal for Jose Fernandez was always a pipe dream, but Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar had potential.

Instead, the Dodgers are driving a fall and winter that to this point have done little other than disappoint onlookers, and possibly themselves, as Chapman and Iwakuma appeared to be in the bag. The consolation prize is Kazmir and a bunch of little-to-nothing signings and trades, although their prospect package in the Todd Frazier trade was applauded and they could still win the bidding war for Kenta Maeda.

That does not mean the Dodgers should be written off as also-rans. They have a quality roster, one that most other GMs in the game would swap for their own right now. But this franchise is not in the business of simply being better than most.

It exists to win World Series titles. Kazmir could end up contributing to that, but as of right now, he is the Dodgers’ major acquisition and does not make them a pennant favorite in what is still a lackluster offseason.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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Scott Kazmir to Dodgers: Latest Contract Details, Comments, Reaction

Scott Kazmir failed to live up to expectations after the Houston Astros acquired him at the 2015 trade deadline, and the lefty decided to make those struggles a thing of the past by bolting for the Los Angeles Dodgers in free agency. 

The Dodgers announced the signing of Kazmir on Twitter. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the deal is for $48 million over three years with an opt-out after the first year. 

Kazmir spoke about the deal on his Twitter account after the announcement:

Joel Sherman of the New York Post provided some thoughts on the signing from tactical and financial perspectives:

A three-time All-Star, Kazmir sputtered with the Astros after a terrific first half with the A’s. Although he went just 5-5 before getting dealt, he posted a 2.38 ERA that would have ranked as the lowest mark of his career (minimum 10 starts) had it spanned the course of the regular season. 

But once Kazmir moved to a new locale, his numbers took a turn for the worse. 

“I mean personally, me, very disappointed,” Kazmir said of his half-season with the Astros on Sept. 29, per the Houston Chronicle‘s Evan Drellich. “Just on recently just not contributing like I wanted to. Of course, being a competitor (you feel that way).”

Now Kazmir will hope that a fresh start shifts his numbers back toward the more productive end of his personal spectrum. And considering he’s only a season removed from his last All-Star selection, the 31-year-old should have plenty of gas left in the tank.  

The second half of his 2015 season undeniably tarnished what once looked like a potential career-year, but if Kazmir can return to form, that poor three-month stretch will wind up looking like an anomaly on an otherwise solid resume. 

The Dodgers badly needed to bolster their rotation after seeing Zack Greinke leave for Arizona. Clayton Kershaw can hide a lot of problems on his own, but depth is so important over a 162-game season. 

Kazmir isn’t at the level of Greinke, though he’s hardly a bad alternative. The 31-year-old has proven himself to be reliable with at least 29 starts each of the last three years with his ERA total going from 4.04 in 2013 to 3.10 last year. 

The Dodgers can slot Kazmir in behind Kershaw and ahead of Brett Anderson to give the rotation a solid trio at the top. They are also going to get reinforcements during the year when Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu return, so things aren’t as dire in Los Angeles as they once seemed. 

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Ranking the Most Underrated Impact Moves of the MLB Offseason’s 1st 2 Months

Sometimes, the moves that make the biggest impacts in sports are the ones that are swept under the rug in favor of more high-profile transactions. 

It’s no different in baseball than it is in any other sport. Would the Kansas City Royals have won a World Series title without the additions of Kendrys Morales and Edinson Volquez? Jed Lowrie and Colby Rasmus paid huge dividends for the Houston Astros last season, while A.J. Burnett worked out just fine for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

In a winter filled with big names and even bigger contracts, there are many impact moves flying under the radar once again.

While the baseball world was fixated on the trades of Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman, the Astros improved significantly with the addition of Ken Giles. The New York Mets didn’t re-sign playoff hero Daniel Murphy, but Neil Walker is more than a consolation prize. 

Those are just a few of the players we’ll touch on over the following slides. What other moves are flying under the radar this winter? Make sure to let us know in the comments section below.

Let’s dive right in with our fifth-most underrated move. 

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Win-Win Ideas for Top Remaining MLB Trade Chips Entering the New Year

With the new year rapidly approaching and fanbases starting to count the days until the start of spring training, the MLB hot stove has started to cool a bit since the winter meetings came and went.

That being said, there is still a lot of offseason to go before Cactus and Grapefruit League action gets underway, and we could see at least a few more significant trades before then.

Finding a win-win trade situation is oftentimes easier said than done, and one side will always look like the winner right off the bat.

It’s certainly not impossible for a trade to be a win-win though.

With that in mind, what follows is a look at five potential trade ideas centered around some of the top names that have popped up on the rumor mill so far this offseason—complete with packages that could be considered a win for both sides.

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Is Jurickson Profar, Former No. 1 Overall MLB Prospect, Worth the Trade Gamble?

It’s not uncommon for a player to go from being a top prospect to being trade bait in a matter of years. That sort of thing happens all the time.

But Jurickson Profar? He’s a different story. The Texas Rangers‘ 22-year-old middle infielder is definitely a former top prospect, but his status as trade bait is…well, even “complicated” is putting it lightly.

If nothing else, Profar is trade bait because other teams want him to be. There have been Profar rumors here and there throughout the entire offseason. Recently, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Rangers are still receiving interest in Profar but have clearly yet to be convinced by any offers:

One can see where both sides are coming from here.

For prospective buyers, Profar is a former top prospect whose value has been crushed by a bad right shoulder that’s sidelined him for two straight years. However, the Rangers can also see that Profar is a former top prospect, and they also know he’s due for only $508,000 (per MLB Trade Rumors) in what will be his age-23 season in 2016. He’s neither expensive nor past his prospect expiration date.

“We are not looking to trade him,” Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said in November, via Joel Sherman of the New York Post. “We held on to him this long. We are pretty optimistic his shoulder is fit. The mindset is to wait and see where he is. We believe he will get back to his value, which was one of the best young players out there.”

The message coming from Texas is clear: Just because Profar’s value is down doesn’t mean the Rangers have to sell low on him. For teams with Profar on their radar, that presents a question of how badly they want to be the team that gambles on him.

To this end, there’s much to consider.

Let’s jump back in time a couple of years to 2013.

Going into that season, Profar had made the leap from being a consensus top-10 prospect to being the consensus No. 1 prospect. Per Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus each put Profar ahead of all other prospects.

It wasn’t one thing that they all liked about him. It was everything. As the folks at Baseball Prospectus put it:

Long term, Profar has a chance to be the superior player, with plus chops with the glove and a plus bat; the kind of player that every org in baseball dreams of acquiring. It’s not just the tools that Profar beings to the table that make him special, it’s the instincts and feel that not only allow game utility but push the tools beyond their paper grade.

This was only three years ago, but they’ve been three rough years for the Curacao native.

Profar got his first real taste of the majors when he played in 85 games in 2013, but he failed to impress by hitting just .234 with a .644 OPS. Then came a right shoulder injury that sidelined him for the entire 2014 season. Just when it seemed like he had a chance to come back from that, he underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum last February and was sidelined for almost all of 2015 as well.

Of course, “almost all” is not the same as “all.” Profar was able to play in 12 minor league games at the end of 2015 and then played in 20 games in the Arizona Fall League.

It seems to be Profar’s performance in the AFL that has his corner of the trade rumor mill buzzing. He hit a solid .267 with an .805 OPS over 91 plate appearances, inspiring generally positive reviews of his bat.

Among those with nice things to say were Eric Longenhagen and Eric Karabell of ESPN.com. Both noted that Profar looked comfortable at the plate and observed him making strong contact to boot. And though it may not mean good things for his speed, Longenhagen noted that Profar seems to have bulked up during his time off, resulting in improved power.

The bottom line, in Karabell’s words: “Sure, Profar hasn’t played in a big league game since 2013, but the promise of greatness still exists.”

There is, however, one pretty big catch. The promise of Profar’s greatness may still be there on offense, but the jury’s still out on the other side of the ball.

At the time Profar went in for surgery, word was it would take a full year for him to recover. The Rangers haven’t pushed their luck with that prognosis. Profar only DH’d in his 12 minor league games at the end of 2015, and he continued to DH in the AFL. He hasn’t played in the field since 2013.

Even the work Profar has been able to do on the field has been limited. As Zach Buchanan of the Arizona Republic reported in November, Profar was taking grounders at shortstop and second base, but without making throws. His only throwing work came in playing long toss at 120 feet, and he was only doing that three times a week.

So for now, Profar is only half of a promising young player. He’s shown he can hit, but that’s only so encouraging as long as his ability to play the field remains a mystery.

Said mystery won’t be resolved until Profar hits the field in spring training, effectively giving teams six more weeks to weigh how much they’re willing to give up in a trade for him. And as much as teams may want to buy low, this note from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News indicates the Rangers have already deflected all buy-low interest in Profar:

As for what it would take to acquire Profar right now, it stands to reason he’s not going to attract anything of real value all on his own.

But perhaps the Rangers could deal Profar as part of a larger trade. For example, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram noted that Profar’s name has been invoked in trade talks involving Jose Fernandez. It wouldn’t necessarily have to involve Fernandez, but one can certainly imagine Profar as a complementary piece next to a prized prospect in a blockbuster.

This is not to say Profar would be a mere throw-in, mind you. The idea would be that the Rangers and the exchanging team agree to value him more like a prized prospect. This way, the Rangers would be holding on to their other prized prospects, and Profar’s new team would be the one making the upside play with Profar.

The difference, of course, is that it’s basically costing the Rangers nothing to make an upside play with Profar. Any team that trades for him at this point will be paying a price to do the same, which would obviously up the stakes.

If it turns out Profar can still throw well enough to play short or second, then great. He would be back on track to be a potential two-way star in the middle of the infield. Those are good guys to have.

But for the time being, that’s still a decent-sized “if.” It’s going to be that way until at least spring training, when teams will be getting their first look at Profar’s throwing in a game setting in over two years.

In other words, patience is indeed a virtue for teams interested in Profar. They’re not getting him at buy-low prices now, so why jump the gun with a market-value offer when Profar’s chance to prove he’s worth market value is just a few weeks away?

If Profar’s shoulder is looking good in spring training, that’s when teams should feel free to ramp up their interest. Pulling off a deal for Profar would still involve some risk, but at least teams will be able to justify it on the basis that he’s a former elite talent who still has youth and a good bat, and who appears fully recovered from the shoulder troubles that sidelined him for two seasons.

Stay tuned. It’s not going to be long before Profar’s status as trade bait goes from being up in the air to being down on solid ground.

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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