Archive for October, 2014

Predicting All 30 MLB Teams’ Top Priority Target This Offseason

With Game 3 of the ALCS getting rained out on Monday night, let’s turn our attention away from the postseason for a bit and focus on what promises to be another busy offseason around the league.

This year’s free-agent class is headlined by a trio of starting pitchers in Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields, and there are plus arms behind them as well like Francisco Liriano, Jake Peavy, Brandon McCarthy and Aaron Harang.

On the offensive side of things, Hanley Ramirez, Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Russell Martin and Pablo Sandoval highlight a position-player class that also has its fair share of impact players.

The international market figures to be busy once again as well, with Cuban slugger Yasmani Tomas likely headed for a big payday and Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda a candidate to be posted.

With some teams looking to spend big and others simply looking to retool, all 30 teams have a different plan heading into the offseason.

What follows is a look at the one player that could be each team’s top priority target this coming offseason, whether it is a player being re-signed, a free agent being brought in or a trade target being acquired.

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2015 MLB Free Agents: Early Rumors and Predictions for Notable Names on Market

The MLB is currently blessing us with an epic batch of playoff baseball, but us forward thinkers can’t sit still without pondering the future. October will eventually end, making room for the offseason’s free-agency process.

We have plenty of time before any of MLB’s available stars sign the dotted line on the open market, but that won’t stop the rumor mill from churning away during the postseason. 

Although the hot stove isn’t burning yet, it is gradually heating up as free agency inches closer to its initiation. Some buzz has emerged among a few prominent veterans, one of whom is currently trying to lead his team to the World Series.

Let’s take a look at some rumors that have materialized early in the game.

 

Will James Shields Leave Resurgent Royals?

So what if the “Big Game James” nickname is false advertising considering his 5.19 career postseason ERA? Let’s allow ESPN Stats & Info to prove that something isn’t true just because it rhymes.

Still, James Shields remains one of this winter’s most desirable commodities after hurling more than 200 innings in each of the past eight seasons. He leads baseball with 932.2 innings pitched over the past four seasons, accruing a 3.17 ERA over that stretch.

Add some October exposure, and he’s a commendable consolation prize for teams priced out on Max Scherzer and Jon Lester.

According to the The Kansas City Star‘s Andy McCullough, the Boston Red Sox have the early edge on replacing Lester with Shields at the top of their rotation: “Boston has emerged as the early favorite for his services,” McCullough said, “but plenty of other clubs should be in the mix.”

Boston spent the July trade deadline reloading its lineup for the 2015 season, but the rotation remains bleak. Whether the squad signs one of the premier pitching free agents or finds one in a trade, expect something to get done this winter.

Yet the Red Sox will certainly have their share of competition for Shields. Although a long-term arrangement looked out of the cards when they acquired him from the Tampa Bay Rays, the Royals’ deep playoff run might change that.

CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman said their postseason success has the Royals trying to retain their ace:

The Royals were originally believed to have a shot to keep Shields only if they went far in the playoffs, and sources say the team has decided by now, after reaching the ALCS, that they will make that effort. The Royals told Shields’ agent, Page Odle, around the time of the trade deadline that they’d be back in touch after the season, which was a hopeful sign. And now with their amazing postseason run, which will bolster their revenues big-time — they have decided they will indeed try to keep him with a new multi-year deal.

Rather than looking at him as a bitter reminder of why they no longer roster Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi, Shields is now at the forefront of Kansas City’s most exciting season in 29 years.

The team’s 2014 payroll of $92 million represents a club high, and a World Series appearance could cause the Royals to lock up one of their most marquee names.

The key for Kansas City is that Shields hasn’t enhanced his value by allowing 10 earned runs through 16 postseason innings. With a decaying strikeout rate, he shouldn’t command $20 million or more a year.

Prediction: Stays with Royals

 

No Room for Adam LaRoche in Washington?

Adam LaRoche enjoyed a solid bounce-back campaign for the Washington Nationals, upgrading 2013’s .237/.332/.403 slash line to .259/.362/.455 with 26 home runs. He’s also an aging, slow-footed first baseman, and the Nationals may have other plans for the position.

That’s not to say there’s no interest in a slugger with a 127 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), which means he was 27 percent better than an average hitter when normalizing park factors. The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo mentioned two teams that will likely eye his services:

LaRoche likely will not be re-signed by the Nationals, who could move Ryan Zimmerman to first base. But LaRoche lines up nicely as a target for the Brewers, who have toyed with the idea of Ryan Braun moving to first but will likely keep him in the outfield. LaRoche also could draw interest from the Orioles if they lose Cruz, but the Brewers right now seem like the best fit.

Zimmerman played just 61 games last season, and he’s no longer a Gold Glove third baseman at age 30. More importantly, he’s under contract for five more years, so the Nationals need to keep him healthy any way possible. Moving him to the less-strenuous first base could help.

LaRoche and the Brewers is a match that makes all the sense in the world. After starting the season on fire, the Brewers fell out of the playoff picture. Their first basemen—mostly Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay—hitting .208/.299/.374 certainly dampened their cause.  

While their payroll expanded over $100 million in 2014, they’re not in a big enough market to chase the stars. LaRoche won’t come cheap, but a minus-5.0 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) along with turning 35 before next Opening Day slashes his price tag.

LaRoche can net a contract similar to the two-year, $24 million deal he signed before the 2013 season.

Prediction: Signs with Brewers

 

A.J. Burnett Not Burned Out Yet

Following a tremendous 2013 season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, speculation circled about A.J. Burnett’s future in baseball, with a consensus formed that he would stay in Pittsburgh or retire.

He instead inked a one-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, setting up the cycle to restart in another year.

A year removed from notching a 2.80 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) for Pittsburgh, Burnett stumbled with a 4.14 FIP in 2014. His strikeout and walk rates both dwindled during an all-around forgettable stretch concluded with a 5.83 ERA after the All-Star break.

Due to a clause in his contract, the Phillies are probably hoping he hangs up his cleats. Unfortunately for them, Heyman hinted otherwise:

Indications are that there’s a good chance A.J. Burnett will return to pitch in the majors in 2015. 

While nothing is set yet, people close to Burnett suggest it is more likely than not he will be back pitching. Besides his love of pitching, Burnett has a $12.75-million player option with Philadelphia. He has until five days after the World Series ends to exercise it.

Had he logged fewer than 30 starts in 2014, the Phillies could have declined a mutual option and exercised a $1 million buyout. Instead, Burnett can activate the $12.75 million player option after making 34 starts during an otherwise tumultuous campaign.

Without the safety net of that player option, retirement would make sense after his disastrous season. Yet he can re-up with Philadelphia for more money than any sensible club would award him in the open market. Hey, would you turn down $12.75 million to play baseball every fifth game for a year?

Prediction: Exercises player option with Phillies

 

Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs. Contract information obtained via Cot’s Baseball Contracts

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Playoff Schedule 2014: Updated ALCS, NLCS Bracket, Day 11 Predictions

Monday’s only MLB playoff game was postponed due to rain, but that just means Tuesday’s slate will be a packed postseason doubleheader. The American League Championship Series and National League Championship Series will both resume on Tuesday with a duo of pivotal Game 3 affairs.

As was planned all along, the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants will continue the NLCS out West in a Tuesday afternoon thriller to decide which team will take a 2-1 advantage. But after a stretch of storms soaked the Midwest on Monday, the ALCS had to wait until Tuesday night, as the Royals aim to go up 3-0 in the series at home.

All four teams are getting deep into their pitching rotations as we head toward Game 3, and a few hot offenses should see more of the same success. Timely offense has been the key to success all postseason long, and Tuesday should be no different.

Here’s a look at the two games on tap for Day 11.

Updated MLB playoff bracket available at MLB.com.

 

Day 11 Predictions

ALCS Game 3: Orioles at Royals

After a 2-for-2 trip to Camden Yards that continued their perfect postseason record, the Kansas City Royals come home for three straight games only needing to win two for a spot in the World Series.

The Royals will roll out a fresh pitcher for Game 3, with veteran right-hander Jeremy Guthrie making his first start and appearance of the postseason. The 35-year-old with a 13-11 record also pitched in Baltimore for five seasons before his first of two Royals stints. 

With a 2-1 career record and a 2.67 ERA against his former team, he’ll come into Tuesday’s start focused on nothing other than striking out his former teammates, per Fox Sports Kansas City’s Jeffrey Flanagan:

Yeah, I think the emotion will come, obviously, from the playoff game. I think (my) history (with the O’s) will be put, not even on a back burner, but on some kind of like rotating kitchen device, what do they call it, lazy Susan or something. So this is a playoff game and each one of us is preparing to play a very good team on the other side. 

And whether there’s history or not, I think each player, myself included, has put that on the lazy Susan for the time being.

The Royals might not know what they’re getting from Guthrie on the mound Tuesday, but his head is certainly in the right place. His strong history against the O’s is also a promising sign for Kansas City. 

Meanwhile, the Orioles have a better starter on paper in Wei-Yin Chen, but his postseason debut was one to forget. He was pulled after 3.2 innings, giving up five earned runs and two homers against the Tigers in a game the Orioles were lucky enough to still win.

Kansas City was the worst home run-hitting team in the majors this season but has eight through just six playoff games. The Orioles offense—while effective—hasn’t been able to keep up so far this series, and that shouldn’t change as the Royals grind out another close one at home.

Prediction: Royals win, 6-4

 

NLCS Game 3: Cardinals at Giants

Two teams awfully accustomed to the NLCS spotlight in recent years will battle on Tuesday, both knowing the implications Game 3 has—especially in a knotted-up series.

And if it wasn’t for the bat of Kolten Wong in Game 2, that wouldn’t even be the case, as his late home run allowed the St. Louis Cardinals to notch a win before heading to AT&T Park for three games against the San Francisco Giants.

This is guaranteed to be a memorable series given the recent history of both clubs, and it has already shattered network records, according to Sports Illustrated‘s Richard Deitsch:

Despite playing far from their best baseball through these two games, the Cardinals used their typical recipe of late heroics to even the score. But that doesn’t change the fact that the Giants can win this series solely by taking care of business at home.

The Giants lineup went cold at times in the National League Division Series, but it has come to life in the NLCS by drubbing Adam Wainwright in Game 1. Despite losing Game 2 late, the Giants scored runs in four of their last five innings.

John Lackey, the Cardinals’ starting pitcher for Game 3, raved about the Giants’ bats, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle:

They have got a really good lineup. It’s a deep lineup, and especially when you’ve got (Travis) Ishikawa hitting eighth. … It’s more of an American League-style lineup, which I’m pretty well accustomed to. So I’m going to have to make pitches all the way throughout the lineup. They are good.

Tim Hudson will start for San Francisco in Game 3, and after getting an early lead from his offense, he will be able to navigate the Giants to a crucial win.

Prediction: Giants 3, Cardinals 2

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Ned Yost’s Questionable Decisions Keep Coming Up Roses in ALCS

There was a point during the American League Wild Card Game that Ned Yost was crowned King Bonehead of Manager Earth, with his punishment being eternal mockery.

But then his Kansas City Royals stormed back to beat the Oakland A’s. Then they swept the 98-win Los Angeles Angels in the division series. Now they hold a 2-0 lead over the Baltimore Orioles in the championship series that puts them just two wins away from the World Series.

The way things are going, it feels like the only thing separating Yost‘s Royals from a 3-0 lead in the ALCS is Monday night’s rainout of Game 3. With a 6-0 postseason record to his name, Yost can do no wrong.

Or so it seems based on appearances, anyway. But in reality? Eh…Maybe not.

As much it might seem like he has, Yost hasn’t quit making the kind of decisions that invite #Yosted to appear on Twitter. He made them against the A’s, he made them against the Angels, and he’s now making them against the Orioles.

So how are Yost‘s Royals still standing? It’s complicated, but here’s one reason: The Kansas City skipper’s #Yosted low point has already come and gone.

That came in the AL Wild Card Game. Between a doomed double steal and four sacrifice bunts, Yost gifted the A’s five outs. In asking young starting pitcher Yordano Ventura to do a reliever’s work, he also gifted them three runs. Though the Royals won 9-8, Yost did everything in his power to make them lose.

In referring specifically to the Ventura move, pitching god-turned TBS analyst Pedro Martinez had the right idea about what would have become of Yost if the Royals had lost:

Not just the goat. The ugly goat. That’s a whole ‘nother level of goat.

That the Royals survived and saved Yost from that fate was the bright side. The not-so-bright side was that they weren’t going to last much longer if he continued to push his luck to such an absurd degree.

Fortunately, there’s the reason why Yost‘s #Yosted low point is in the past: Comparatively speaking, his luck pushing has actually toned down quite a bit.

And because it has, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that every button he’s pushed since the AL Wild Card Game has felt like the right one. Or, at the least, not the wrong one.

 

ALDS Games 1, 2 and 3

It almost says it all that Yost called for only one sac bunt in Kansas City’s three-game sweep of the Angels in the ALDS. Outside of that, he only made a couple of iffy pitching decisions.

One was choosing to let Jason Vargas face Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Howie Kendrick for a third time in a pressure-packed sixth inning in Game 1. Thanks to Norichika Aoki’s circus catch, a questionable decision was made to look like the right decision.

Then there was the Greg Holland conundrum. Yost had chances to bring his hard-throwing closer into tie games late in Games 1 and 2, thereby prioritizing the lead the Royals didn’t have over the lead they might have. By trusting lesser relievers to keep the Angels from walking off, he was rolling the dice.

Inevitably, he rolled true both times. Thanks to solid relief work and clutch dingers from Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, twice preserving Holland for the save worked out fine.

That set the stage for a drama-less Game 3. A three-run double by Alex Gordon and dingers by Hosmer and Moustakas led the charge to a series-clinching 8-3 win, in which Yost was saved from having to make any controversial decisions.

As such, he had extras in his pocket for the ALCS. And while he’s used a couple of them, the ones he has made fall under the same umbrella as the ones he made in the ALDS: not too bad and ultimately harmless.

 

ALCS Game 1

Yost‘s first real spot of bother in the ALCS came in the fifth inning of Game 1 when the Orioles started getting to staff ace James Shields.

With two outs, the bases loaded and the Royals clinging to a 5-2 lead, something of a Vargas situation confronted Yost when the lefty-swinging Ryan Flaherty strode to the plate. Yost could have called in the lefty-throwing Brandon Finnegan to exploit Flaherty‘s platoon split for the third out.

Instead, he struck with Shields and watched a two-run single turn a 5-2 lead into a 5-4 lead.

That could have been a regrettable decision. Same goes for the bunts Yost called for in the ninth inning with the score tied 5-5. In asking first Jarrod Dyson and then Lorenzo Cain to bunt against a clearly wild Zach Britton, Yost twice tried to give a pitcher who couldn’t find the plate a free out.

Thanks to Gordon and Moustakas, however, none of this ended up mattering.

Their dingers in the 10th turned a 5-5 tie into an 8-5 lead and, ultimately, an 8-6 win that gave the Royals a 1-0 series lead and further boosted Yost‘s postseason profile heading into Game 2.

And in Game 2…

 

ALCS Game 2

In keeping with a general theme, Yost played with fire in Game 2 when he chose to stick with a struggling starter longer than he should have. This time, it was Ventura‘s turn.

Lifting Ventura, whose command was off from the start, in the fifth inning could have prevented the Orioles from erasing a 4-3 Royals lead. Lifting him then might also have prevented him from developing the shoulder tightness that forced him from the game in the sixth.

Fortunately, the word on Ventura is that tightness is water under the bridge. And in the end, it was thanks to a bunt that him giving up the lead also became an afterthought.

In the top of the ninth inning, the score was 4-4 with Britton on the mound, Omar Infante at first base and Moustakas at the plate. Yost called for him to lay one down, thereby taking the bat out of the Royals’ leading postseason home run hitter’s hands.

Or course, it worked out. Moustakas‘ bunt got the speedy Terrance Gore to second base, and Alcides Escobar’s double brought him home for a 5-4 lead. After another run was tacked on, Holland came in to wrap up a 6-4 win.

All of this leaves us standing on a precipice from which to compare what could have happened under Yost‘s watch to what did happen under his watch.

The list of things that fall under the former category includes Yost‘s bungling of the AL Wild Card Game barring the Royals from proper October baseball. Elsewhere, it includes decisions in four other games that could have meant L’s for the Royals instead of W’s.

What did happen, of course, was that the Royals pulled off an improbable win against the A’s and have gone on to win every game since, putting Yost in a position to be regarded as a mad genius.

Which begs the question: Is Yost smarter than he gets credit for, or is he just lucky?

The answer is the same one that applies to pretty much all managers who win in October: a little bit of both.

It has indeed taken some good fortune to build Yost‘s 6-0 postseason record. That the Royals haven’t been beaten by any of his iffy decisions is part of it, but the bigger part of it has to do with him benefiting from the Royals’ unexpected new toy: power.

After hitting only 95 home runs in the regular season, the Royals have hit eight in six postseason games. And so far, they’ve won only one game in which they didn’t homer: that crazy Wild Card Game.

More than anything, this power is why Yost was absolutely right when he said (via HardballTalk) after Game 2: “They’re playing their best baseball of the year right now, and it’s sure the best time to play it.”

This is not to say that Yost has done nothing to help. It’s a lot easier to notice and nitpick his questionable decisions, but he’s made some good ones too.

Compared to the first three postseason games, Yost‘s bullpen management in Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS has been quite good. Particularly his aggressive use of Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis in Game 1.

Also, the one bunt Yost has called for in the ALCS was perfectly defensible. In the words of Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh:

One good bunt doesn’t absolve Yost of so many bad bunts. Likewise, a couple good pitching maneuvers doesn’t absolve him of so many risky ones.

But after watching him try to sabotage his own team in the AL Wild Card Game, Yost is beginning to look less and less like an ugly goat. He’s gone from being a stick in the Royals’ gears to being a much steadier guiding hand at the wheel of a Cinderella team, one that’s been tons of fun to watch.

So let’s end this thing with a blatant Simpsons rip-off: A Toast to the Yost Who Can Boast the Most.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


St. Louis Cardinals vs. SF Giants: Keys for Each Team to Win NLCS Game 3

The St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants will face off in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series on Tuesday with the series tied at two games apiece.

The matchup between the two Senior Circuit heavyweights figured to be an even one, and it’s lived up to that billing through two games so far.

The Giants took Game 1 on the back of a dominating performance from Madison Bumgarner, shutting out the Cardinals in St. Louis. Then, the Cardinals enjoyed a walk-off solo homer from Kolten Wong in the bottom of the ninth inning in Game 2 to even the series.

For Game 3, the Cardinals will throw Boston Red Sox import John Lackey against the Giants’ Tim Hudson in San Francisco in a battle of two veteran right-handed starters. It’s another fairly even matchup in what promises to be a very competitive series.

With the Cardinals and Giants so evenly matched, what does each team have to do to gain an edge in Game 3? Let’s take a look at a few keys for success for both teams, as well as what the NLCS has taught us about the Cards and Giants so far.

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10 Biggest Mid-MLB Postseason Questions That Need Answering

As the postseason progresses, teams, players and results provide more and more answers along the way. Some are expected, but others? Not so much.

That doesn’t mean, there still aren’t plenty of questions to consider regarding how everything is shaping up and, ultimately, how it all will play out.

To determine that, or at least try, here’s a batch of questions that need answering over the rest of October—and even a shot at some of the answers.

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Cardinals vs. Giants: Game 3 Time, TV Info, Live Stream and More

The St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants are chock-full of playoff experience, and through two National League Championship Series contests, these squads are even. Speaking of experience, starters John Lackey and Tim Hudson—at a combined age of 74—are set to take the mound in Game 3.

Expect this roller-coaster ride to continue.

It doesn’t take an expert to quickly analyze these teams and determine that they are very evenly matched. Both have firepower at the plate, solid rotations and viable bullpens. So, what will propel one of these franchises to victory on Tuesday? Before that answer is predicted, here’s a look at all of the game’s pertinent viewing information.

 

Viewing Information

Series: Tied 1-1

Where: AT&T Park in San Francisco, California

When: Tuesday, October 14

Time: 4 p.m. ET

Channel: Fox Sports 1

Live Stream: MLB.TV (subscription required)

 

Preview and Prediction

We’ve already learned that whatever happened in the regular season isn’t exactly translating to October in 2014. After all, the Cardinals—ranked 29th in the league in home runs prior to the playoffs—have sent a postseason-high 11 balls out of the park.

This same theory can be applied to both Hudson and Lackey in Game 3. All “old jokes” aside, these two have defied their respective ages in October, as Hudson pitched 7.1 innings, allowing one run for a 1.23 ERA in one start, and Lackey lasted 7.0 innings, allowing one run for a 1.29 ERA.

We could have seen this coming for Lackey, as MLB Stat of the Day notes the pitcher’s career postseason ERA:

All right, so they each pitched one postseason game and fared well. How have they done against their upcoming opponents? That’s another area in which these pitchers are at a stalemate. Lackey is allowing a career .286 batting average with one home run to Giants hitters, and Hudson is allowing a career .290 average with zero home runs to Cardinals sluggers.

Let’s go ahead and call this one even on the mound. Although, it’s difficult to deny the appeal of Hudson’s enthusiasm following his first win, via John Middlekauff of 95.7 The Game:

But, what about at the plate? Well, it doesn’t get any easier there; however, these teams have scored runs this postseason in completely different fashions.

The Giants are batting .242 as a team and have more at-bats (265) than any other playoff squad. The team thrives on a deep rotation, as practically every hitter is a difficult out. They can get starters’ pitch counts up early and then feast on reserves.

The Cardinals have a different story. This is a team that has recently discovered the long ball. St. Louis is only batting .227 as a team, but an abundance of home runs gets this squad runs in bulk. The Cardinals attempted to shift their batting order in Game 2, moving Jon Jay to the No. 2 spot, but that didn’t quite work out, as he tallied just one hit in four plate appearances.

The edge in Game 3 has to go to the most consistent and complete team. While this may have not been the case during the regular season, the Giants get the advantage here. Earning a road win and coming home to a jam-packed crowd will lead to a win on Tuesday.

Prediction: Giants 4, Cardinals 2

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ALCS Schedule 2014: Updated Royals vs. Orioles TV Coverage and Predictions

Just as we were all geared up to see the third game of the American League Championship Series between the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles on Monday night, Mother Nature had to interfere. Some inclement weather rolled into town, and the game was postponed as a result.

Fox Sports: MLB had the updated series schedule following the postponement:

Now that we’re forced to wait until Tuesday night to see this series continue, we have some more time to speculate on which team is most likely to earn a coveted berth in the World Series. Before we get into some predictions, here’s an updated look at the remaining ALCS schedule.

*Denotes “if necessary” games.

 

Series Prediction

Luckily, Monday’s game was called before pitchers began warming up, which means Wei-Yin Chen is still slated to take the mound for the Orioles and Jeremy Guthrie remains scheduled to start for the Royals.

Guthrie wasn’t overwhelmingly consistent during the regular season, accumulating a record of 13-11 and a 4.13 ERA. Fortunately for the Royals, he enters Game 3 on a three-game winning streak, pitching at least seven innings in two of those contests.

Chen had a horrid outing in his one postseason start. The Detroit Tigers pummeled him for seven hits and five earned runs—including two home runs—over just 3.2 innings, which was good enough for a 12.27 ERA.

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports summed up exactly what Baltimore needs out of Chen in Game 3, via a tweet from America’s Pregame:

The Royals have been all over Baltimore’s pitching rotation, and based on what we saw from Chen’s first outing in October, the home team’s lineup could have a field day once again. Making matters worse for the Orioles is their shaky relief pitching. Darren O’Day has been horrid in this series and has earned two losses, while Zach Britton hasn’t been much better.

On the other hand, we have a steady Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland’s two saves and Wade Davis’ lights-out performances for the Royals, via this tweet from MLB:

It’s clear Kansas City has the upper hand on the mound right now. After this team discovered the long ball in the postseason to combine with some savvy baserunning, the Royals may be the most well-rounded team remaining in the playoffs.

Now, this team gets three consecutive games at home. Expect this Kansas City team to put the Orioles on the ropes in Game 3 and refuse to allow this series to go back to Baltimore.

Prediction: Royals in five

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World Series 2014: Viewing Info and Predictions for Upcoming Final Round

Weeks of enthralling exposition during the MLB postseason has fans geared up for the upcoming World Series climax. The final slate will have a big bar to match in order to not disappoint.

Through two games of both Championship Series, fans have already been treated to 11 close playoff encounters decided by one run. The Kansas City Royals alone have provided four of five extra-inning affairs, giving everyone all the baseball they can handle this October. Now they’re two more wins away from knocking off the Baltimore Orioles.

Will this weird postseason get even weirder? Knowing baseball, probably. Let’s take a look at the World Series schedule before looking into which two squads will make their way to the Fall Classic.

 

ALCS: Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles (KC leads 2-0)

Mother Nature was just too excited to see these two squads in action. Some untimely precipitation in Kansas City forced MLB to push Game 3 from Monday to Tuesday. 

Although the rain means James Shields and Chris Tillman can pitch Game 4 on normal rest, the lost travel day then makes it impossible for either to line up for a potential Game 7. Either way, neither No. 1 starter particularly looks like an ace at the moment.

Shields isn’t quite owning up to that silly “Big Game James” nickname. The offense, however, is an entirely different story.

The same group that hit an MLB-low 95 home runs during the regular season has now crushed eight homers through six games. They’re posting a playoff-high .766 OPS, well above their .690 season clip.

A great deal of their success simply stems from timing in a small sample size. But if “Everyone grows hot and cold at some point” doesn’t float your boat as an explanation, Grantland’s Jonah Keri examined the tangible improvements made during the postseason. They’re walking at a higher rate (7.7 percent to the season’s 6.3) and seeing better pitches due to their enhanced plate discipline.

While more walks lead to a better on-base percentage, free passes aren’t the only benefit of a patient approach. Seeing more pitches means getting better pitches to hit, and here, too, the Royals are performing much better in the postseason than they did during the regular season. Pre-playoffs, K.C. ranked 27th in pitches seen per plate appearance, at 3.74. During the playoffs, the Royals have upped that mark to 3.90. While that might not seem like a huge jump, 3.90 would’ve ranked fourth in the majors during the regular season.

Oddly enough, they also lead all teams with 51 strikeouts, this trend reversed in the wrong direction after sporting the season’s lowest strikeout percentage (16.3 percent). Strikeouts are not ideal, but they’re also not the end of the world when it leads to better pitch selection and more damage when contact is made.

Whether they’ve realized it or not, the Royals have slipped away from the small-ball characteristics that defined them heading into this series against the Orioles, their polar opposites during the regular season.

Baltimore’s distinct power advantage that dominated the pre-series narrative has not materialized. Adam Jones hit the team’s lone homer through the opening two games at Camden Yards, but the Royals belted four long balls. 

All that could certainly change to the expected direction on a whim, but adding power to their upscale defense and relief pitching makes the Royals a dangerous force that shouldn’t squander a 2-0 advantage.

Prediction: Royals in 5

 

NLCS: San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Tied 1-1)

Just like their Missouri companions, the St. Louis Cardinals went from tallying an NL-low 105 home runs during the season to sparking a deep-ball barrage when it mattered most. They’ve towered 11 already in six games, giving them a .438 slugging percentage in postseason play.

The last one came on Sunday night, when Kolten Wong saved the day with a walk-off home run to avoid a 2-0 deficit against the San Francisco Giants.

So why won’t they get the same praise as the Royals? They’re also hitting .227 with a .289 on-base percentage and 6.5 percent walk rate. When they’re not sending balls over the fences, they’re not getting anything done. 

Also, they might have lost one of their biggest stars in Yadier Molina, who left Game 2 with an oblique strain. Despite a worrying early prognosis, Molina has not yet been ruled out for the rest of this series. Per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch:

Should he not make Game 3’s start on Thursday, a very feasible scenario, someone other than Molina will have to don the catcher’s mask for the first time in a postseason game since 2004. MLB.com’s Andrew Simon noted that the team’s current manager was the last person to make a postseason start at catcher before Molina.

Given his .386 slugging percentage, losing Molina’s bat is not an insurmountable loss. It’s his presence behind the plate, however, that the Cardinals would dearly miss. Baseball-Reference.com notes the marked spike in production his pitchers enjoy with the veteran and excellent pitch-framer behind the plate.

Matt Carpenter, who has hit four postseason homers after amassing eight during the season, discussed Molina’s importance to the team.

“You can’t say enough about what he does for our team,” Carpenter said, per ESPN.com. “The way he handles our pitching staff and the leader that he is … It’s disappointing not having him out there. It’s not ideal.”

The Giants are dealing with a 1.65 playoff ERA through 71 innings, but the offense is slugging .298 with two home runs. Bad indeed, but this is not a bad offense. All eight starting position players have an OPS+ above 100, which means they’re all above-average hitters. 

If their fortune on fly balls even out, the Giants should continue their pattern of making the World Series every other year.

Prediction: Giants in 6

 

Note: Advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com.

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NLCS Schedule 2014: Cardinals vs. Giants Game 3 TV Coverage and Predictions

Due to the past success of the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants in October, we already knew the National League Championship Series would be a fight to the bitter end. Through two games of compelling baseball, that thought looms large.

The Giants earned a huge road win in Game 1, as Madison Bumgarner continued his playoff brilliance. San Francisco’s lineup got to Adam Wainwright early, and before we knew it, the Giants pitched a shutout thanks to continued stellar play from their bullpen.

With St. Louis down a game, it entered a must-win scenario in Game 2 and didn’t disappoint. Thanks to solid relief pitching—sans a poor day from Trevor Rosenthal—and some late-game heroics from Kolten Wong, the series moves to San Francisco all knotted up at one game each.

So, which team will successfully break this deadlock and earn a pivotal Game 3 victory? Before we predict the answer to that question, let’s first take a look at the contest’s essential viewing information.

 

Viewing Information

Series: Tied 1-1

Where: AT&T Park in San Francisco, California

When: Tuesday, October 14

Time: 4 p.m. ET

Channel: Fox Sports 1

Live Stream: MLB.TV (subscription required)

 

Preview and Prediction

As if these two teams couldn’t be any more evenly matched, the Giants are starting Tim Hudson and the Cardinals are going with John Lackey in Game 3. How does this pitching matchup make this impending contest even more of a toss-up? Take a look at each starter’s postseason numbers this year:

It doesn’t get much closer than that.

These teams match up evenly in regard to their starters, but what about depth in the bullpen? Looking back through two games in this series, both teams’ relievers surrendered runs; however, St. Louis had the better staff in Game 2, as three separate San Francisco relievers gave up a run.

Still, the Giants now return home, and their bullpen was magnificent before Sunday’s contest. The three runs given up by relievers over the last three innings may be more of an outlier than anything. After all, take a look at these telling stats before Sunday’s contest, via Richard Justice of MLB.com:

Regardless, considering the ability of Hudson and Lackey to go seven-plus innings, we may not see much bullpen work from either squad in Game 3.

Should the Giants go to their bullpen, it will be interesting to see if they finally put Tim Lincecum into action. Although, a tweet from Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com doesn’t look promising:

One big difference between these two teams is how they’ve generated runs in the postseason. A side-by-side comparison is very telling:

In a far different trend from the regular season, St. Louis has suddenly discovered the long ball, while San Francisco has been relying more on manufacturing runs with consistent plate appearances across its lineup.

Taking this into consideration, the Giants get the slight upper hand in Game 3. Hudson was fired up and emotional in his last victory, and we should expect to see more of the same from him as he prepares to take the mound in a stadium full of supportive fans. It’s just difficult to see the Cardinals notching many deep balls in that scenario.

Prediction: Giants 4, Cardinals 2

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