Archive for February, 2014

Josh Hamilton Injury: Updates on Angels Star’s Calf and Return

The beginning stages of spring training led to a rather ominous development for the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday, as star outfielder Josh Hamilton suffered a strained left calf during baserunning drills.

MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reported news of the injury and noted that Hamilton was on crutches:

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times provided a bit more specificity of the potential timeline regarding Hamilton’s recovery and evaluation, along with a brief quote from the 32-year-old veteran:

The Los Angeles Times’ Mike DiGiovanna weighed in on the early adversity, which also included pitcher C.J. Wilson being hit in the head by a line drive:

Hamilton is a five-time All-Star and former American League MVP, but he had a disappointing 2013 campaign in his first action with the Angels, hitting a career-low .250. He managed just 21 home runs in 576 at-bats, compared to 43 the previous year with the Texas Rangers despite seeing 14 fewer at-bats.   

Although this is considered a minor setback, perhaps a revisiting of the basic fundamentals preached in spring training could help Hamilton as he prepares to bounce back from a lackluster season. The minor ailment shouldn’t cause him to miss any regular-season games, either.

With the star power the Angels have in Hamilton, young phenom Mike Trout and Albert Pujols among others, the hope is to capitalize more on it after going just 78-84 last year. Doing so depends on Hamilton picking up the slack at the plate, along with his recently underachieving teammates and Pujols in particular.

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Recapping the Jameis Winston vs. New York Yankees Matchup

It may not count in the standings, but all eyes were focused on George Steinbrenner Field on Tuesday afternoon as the New York Yankees played host to Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston and the Florida State Seminoles. 

The Yankees did win the game, 8-3, but that was a mere formality. Even the best college teams are going to struggle against professional squads because of the talent disparity and the use of wood bats in the game. For his part, Winston went 0-for-2 at the plate, coming in as a replacement in left field in the fifth.

Winston’s appearance in the game and New York’s unofficial start to spring training made this one of the most talked about baseball events of the winter. 

While his long-term future lies in football, Winston has brought a much-needed buzz to college baseball this spring because of his profile. He splits time between the outfield and pitching, as he did in Tuesday’s game. 

This was obviously a special attraction for fans in Florida, who took to the stadium to mob the star quarterback on a day when professional MLB stars like Brett Gardner were in the lineup and others, like Derek Jeter, were also in attendance. 

Even though I mentioned Winston’s long-term future is in football, Florida State football coach Jimbo Fisher seems to think that his star quarterback could split time between both sports if he really wanted to and entered the right situation (via Brendan Sonnone, Orlando Sentinel). 

Of course, even though he didn’t get to play on the same field as most of the Yankees’ biggest stars, that didn’t mean Winston missed out on an opportunity to take a picture with two of the franchise’s biggest icons (via SportsCenter). 

Also before the game took place, Winston took a few hacks in the batting cage with fans and teammates watching.

Even though Winston was the focus of today’s game, Fisher got to throw out the ceremonial first pitch.

After all the build-up, Winston finally entered the game in the bottom of the fifth inning, taking over in left field for D.J. Stewart. His first plate appearance came in the top of the sixth inning. The drama was all for naught, as Yankees pitcher Shane Greene got the two-sport star to ground out on a ball to second base. 

Even though the at-bat didn’t end in successful fashion, Sweeny Murti of WFAN New York noted that all anyone in attendance wanted to see was Winston make some kind of contact with the ball. 

Sometimes winning a Heisman Trophy and a national championship for a beloved college team in a sports-obsessed state like Florida has some perks, like getting a rousing ovation for a foul ball. 

Winston did get a second at-bat in the eighth inning, but as David Waldstein of The New York Times said, it was hardly a banner moment for the biggest star in college sports. 

Despite some thought that Winston would pitch in the game, Bob Nightengale of USA Today noted that Florida State coach Mike Martin opted to not let Winston pitch because his arm was a little tender.

Winston’s absence on the mound made for a rather uneventful conclusion to the game, since the only attraction left in the later innings, when the Yankees had taken control of things, was seeing the Heisman winner throw to professional hitters. 

After the game was over, Winston was mobbed by fans and reporters. One of the most interesting things he said came from a question about why he still plays baseball (via Andrew Astleford, Sun Sports Florida).

Most of the time, two-sport stars are forced to choose between one or the other upon entering college because of time commitments. Good for Winston to keep doing both while he still can. 

Winston also found meeting members of the Yankees to be quite the thrill in his young life, but not quite as good as winning the BCS title (via Joe Smith, Tampa Bay Times).

Despite being a preseason third-team All-American selection by Baseball America, Winston hasn’t had a major impact on the team thus far. He’s 1-for-1 with a single and walk in two games as a position player. 

On the mound, Winston has made a bigger impact. He’s strictly a reliever, appearing in three games covering four innings with no runs allowed on one hit, three strikeouts and one save. 

Since his baseball future, if he wants to have one, is likely on the mound, it’s a shame that Winston’s arm wasn’t cooperating enough to let him throw against the Yankees. That could have done a lot to enhance his MLB draft profile, though there is still a lot of work to do in that regard. 

Instead, Winston can just take solace in knowing that he got two at-bats in an exhibition game against the Yankees and was the main attraction. 

 

Note: Florida State stats courtesy of Seminoles.com

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Ozzie Smith Talks Derek Jeter’s Career and Gives His Shortstop Mount Rushmore

For many, the 2014 Major League Baseball season won’t be just another season. It will also be a time to bid farewell to one of the most beloved players baseball has ever known: Derek Jeter.

Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith, however, won’t just be bidding farewell to a beloved player. In seeing the New York Yankees captain out the door, he’ll also be bidding farewell to a fellow shortstop and a man he’s “very proud” to call a friend.

That’s a sentiment “The Wizard” expressed while discussing a variety of Jeter topics with Bleacher Report on Tuesday in a phone interview meant to promote a campaign he’s working on with Budweiser. Regarding Jeter’s retirement announcement, Smith said he was surprised by the timing of it, but probably not as surprised as the rest of us.

“As we get older, that time comes for all of us,” said Smith. And he would know. Like Jeter is about to, Smith also played into his 40s, playing his last season in 1996 at the age of 41.

Of course, it’s no secret that there’s more than just age at work in Jeter’s situation. A fractured left ankle suffered in the 2012 playoffs kept him out of action until July in 2013. That and a host of other injuries limited him to just 17 games. He admitted in his retirement announcement that 2013 “was a tough one.”

Smith sympathizes: “When you get as injured as he has late in his career, it makes it a little bit tougher.”

With his immediate future somewhat uncertain, it’s no wonder many are taking the time to look back at Jeter’s best moments. When asked if he has any favorites of his own, Smith said it was good enough for him simply to watch Jeter over the years.

Just watching the way that he went about his job every day,” said Smith. “He was very, very professional. He did his job every day. He was just one of those blue-collar guys who put his time in, and it paid off. He’s been a great asset to the game of baseball, and I wish him nothing but the best.”

Since he became a full-time player in 1996, 2013 was only the third season in which Jeter failed to play in at least 148 games. Along the way, he’s racked up a .312 career average, won five World Series and has been involved in hardly any controversies.

To that last point, that Jeter has been able to do so while spending his entire career in the Big Apple is an aspect of his legend that Smith doesn’t think should be taken lightly.

“New York is not an easy place to play,” said The Wizard. “But Derek is one of those special people who had what it took to play there. He kept his nose clean, always said the right thing and just has been very, very professional.”

And this, for Smith, demands a shoutout to two people in particular: “I think that we have to say that his parents probably get a lot of credit for that. He had a great upbringing and has just been nothing but class.”

Having thrived in New York for 19 years (and counting), Smith is of the mind that Jeter doesn’t have anything else to prove. In light of that, he’s in the same boat that pretty much all of us are in regarding Jeter’s upcoming farewell tour: He’s earned it.

“Very few players have the opportunity to take what is termed ‘a tour,’ ” said Smith, whose own farewell tour didn’t begin until after he announced his retirement midway through the 1996 season. “And with what he’s accomplished in New York, with the way he’s represented Major League Baseball, with his professionalism, his dignity, his pride and his honor, Jeter is certainly deserving of it.”

Five years after Jeter’s tour ends will come another, much higher validation of his career. It’s a given that he’s going to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, just as recently retired teammate Mariano Rivera will be when his time comes.

And if you ask Smith, these two might finally do something no other Hall of Famer has done yet.

“I think he and Mariano probably would be the first two guys, if [ever] we were to have a chance to see someone making it as a unanimous choice for the Hall of Fame,” said Smith.

For now, Jeter already has a special place in history in Smith’s eyes. When asked to name his shortstop Mount Rushmore, Smith was quick to include him.

“Well, of course Cal would be on there. Derek would be on there. Omar Vizquel would be on there. The guy I got traded for actually would be one of those guys because he was a true five-tool player,” said Smith.

Also, naturally: “And of course, I’d put myself on there.”

If you’re scoring at home, that’s Cal Ripken Jr., Jeter, Vizquel, Garry Templeton and Smith himself. You’ll have to visualize The Wizard’s shortstop Mount Rushmore on your own, but statistically it looks like this:

Of the numbers up there, only Jeter’s aren’t set in stone yet. For what it’s worth, he is within range of Smith’s career WAR. One last great season in 2014 will put him right there with The Wizard among the greats to ever play shortstop in WAR’s eyes.

That’s a journey that Jeter will start on April 1 when he and the Yankees take on the Astros in Houston. Opening Day for the rest of Major League Baseball is the day before on March 31.

And if Smith and his beer-brewing buddies have their way, that day will be a national holiday. As in, for real this time.

As far as Smith and Budweiser are concerned, Opening Day has gone long enough without being declared an official national holiday. Smith says it might as well be considering that many Americans already treat it like one.

“There are 22 million Americans who at some point in time have played hooky from work and school. So that in and of itself makes it an unofficial holiday,” said Smith of Opening Day. He added that he’s not asking for much, as merely getting Opening Day proclaimed “as some type of day of observance would really fit the bill.”

Smith will be on the campaign trail for the next 30 days as he and Budweiser attempt to collect 100,000 signatures on a petition at Budweiser.com/OpeningDay. And while only fans 21 and older can sign it, the White House is required to respond if the signature quota is met within the 30-day window.

“Hopefully we can get that done by March 26,” said Smith of the 100,000 signatures, “and I’ll be able to take them right to the White House steps and give them to the president.”

As of this writing, the petition had over 9,000 signatures on it. If you’re of proper age and would like to see Opening Day declared an official national holiday, you know what to do.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Quotes obtained firsthand.

 

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2014 MLB Predictions: Teams That Will Bounce Back After Missing Playoffs in 2013

Optimism is in heavy supply as spring training action gets underway around Major League Baseball. Teams that made the playoffs last season have a plan to get back and a vast majority of those that missed out hope things align perfectly for their own postseason run in 2014.

Ultimately, there are numerous factors that come into play over the course of 162 games. Everything from injuries to unexpected seasons, both good and bad, alter the direction of the season.

All front offices can do is build the best possible roster and hope those variables go in their favor.

With that in mind, let’s examine three teams that were forced to watch the playoffs from home last fall, but are in good shape to contend this year. The trio should all make a serious push to break the 90-win barrier, which is what it took to make the postseason in 2013.

 

New York Yankees

The Yankees won 85 games last season. It’s far from a noteworthy result for the storied franchise until you consider how the club did it. It was a makeshift roster that managed to stay within striking distance of a wild-card berth until the final weeks.

Consider that, of the six position players to appear in at least 100 games, three of them were Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells and Chris Stewart—all subpar offensive options.

Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez all missed extended periods of time.

The pitching staff enjoyed more favorable luck in terms of injuries. That said, it was still forced to endure a down season from ace CC Sabathia and a full campaign with a struggling Phil Hughes in the starting rotation.

So the Yankees went out during the winter and acted like the old-school Bronx Bombers. They added Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Masahiro Tanaka, among others, to bolster a roster that had enough depth to win 85 games but came up short of the postseason.

If the 27-time World Series champions get reasonably healthy seasons from Teixeira and Jeter, a bounce-back campaign from Sabathia and those big-name signings live up to their hefty contracts, there’s no reason 100 wins shouldn’t be within reach.

 

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels were one of the most disappointing teams in baseball last season. With a boatload of offensive talent and a one-two punch of Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson in the rotation, they were viewed as one of the top contenders in the American League.

Instead, they finished below .500 at 78-84 and outside the top five in runs scored.

Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton failed to live up to their usual high standards, which meant much of Mike Trout’s amazing work went for naught once he got on base.

The 22-year-old sensation finished his second full season with 33 stolen bases, 27 home runs and an on-base percentage of .432. There are concerns that lingering contract talk could impact his play, but according to ESPN.com, manager Mike Scioscia doesn’t think that will be the case:

There’s no doubt that there are potential distractions there with what’s happening. He hasn’t flinched. He’s very grounded. He has everything sorted out on his priorities. He just wants to play baseball, and he’s doing a great job of it.

It would be a surprise if Trout is anything less than one of the best two or three players in baseball, contract talks or not. The main concerns for the Angels are secondary offensive production and the starters behind Weaver and Wilson.

The reason the Angels are in good shape is because even if Pujols and Hamilton don’t bounce all the way back, they should make strides from last season.

They also added David Freese and Raul Ibanez to add more stability to the bottom half of the order.

As for the rotation, it should also get a boost thanks to Hector Santiago (3.56 ERA with the Chicago White Sox last season) and Tyler Skaggs, a promising prospect who should be ready to take the next step after getting his feet wet in the majors over the past two years.

It should all add up to more than 90 wins and a likely postseason berth.

 

Washington Nationals

If someone said before last season that a team was going to run away with the National League East, the general assumption would have been that the club in question would be Washington.

The Nationals ended up finishing 10 games behind the Atlanta Braves in what’s shaping up to become quite a rivalry in the coming years.

Despite the Braves’ strong 2013, the oddsmakers aren’t convinced they can do it again. TheSpread.com notes that the Nationals have emerged as Bovada.lv’s early favorites to capture the division crown and the automatic playoff berth that comes along with it:

There’s no doubting Washington’s pitching, especially in the starting rotation. The team’s fifth starter is slated to be Ross Detwiler, who had a 4.04 ERA in 13 starts last season. That illustrates how much depth it has behind Stephen Strasburg.

The determining factor in whether the Nationals rebound to win the division will be performance at the plate. The team has a very strong trio in Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth. Ian Desmond is also a solid contributor.

Washington will need at least one or two other hitters to step up over the course of the season to reach expectations, though.

Whether it’s Adam LaRoche, Denard Span, Wilson Ramos or somebody else, the stars in the middle of the order need help.

Luckily, Washington should have enough talent among its role and depth players to fill that void. LaRoche is a player who runs hot and cold, meaning he will help for stretches, and Ramos should be ready to take another step forward at age 26.

The result should be a much closer battle in the NL East and a playoff berth, whether it be as division champions or a National League Wild Card.

 

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Budweiser and Ozzie Smith Are Trying to Make MLB Opening Day a National Holiday

Here’s hoping “The Wizard” has a bit more magic to offer MLB fans, because Ozzie Smith is teaming up with Budweiser for a campaign petitioning the White House to make Opening Day a national holiday. 

For the Win’s Ted Berg spotted this video that should provide a sense of optimism, however small, to those fans who feign illness every single time the baseball season begins. 

Maybe, just maybe, a baseball legend and beer company can pull off the unimaginable and combine the foolish hope that comes with Opening Day with the carefree whimsy of a day off from work and school. 

The impetus behind the campaign is simple. Smith explains in the video, “Opening Day should be a holiday. Let’s make it official. All we need is 100,000 signatures on the way to the White House.”

Yes, we have yet another petition to throw onto the pile, which seems to be massive as it pertains to Barack Obama’s tenure. 

For the White House to address the petition, 100,000 signatures are needed. As of Tuesday evening, there are a little more than 14,000 at the petition’s page, which was created on Feb. 24. Fans, however, have until March 26 to get to the magical mark. 

This is a fantastic idea that does have an obvious wrinkle, as Berg points out:

Due to Major League Baseball’s recent scheduling trend, there’s no real opening day anymore.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Lisa Brown has a similar sentiment:

The league’s 2014 opening day is Monday, March 31, although several teams play regular season games prior to opening day. The New York Yankees and the Houston Astros don’t play their first games of the season until April 1.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks, for example, open up the season in Australia on March 22, and the two teams will also engage in a couple of exhibition games against Team Australia that will take place prior to the season opener. 

Chris Vaccaro seems to think the holiday is a fine idea, though:

We agree. 

Sure, it may be our biased affection for hot dogs, beer and baseball, as well as the notion that with 162 games to be played, anything is truly possible. 

However, if the Super Bowl isn’t gaining traction as a holiday, MLB has little chance of delivering the biggest gift to its fans in the form of a day off, so pack this daydream away next to thoughts of World Series glory. 

As for all the games taking place on various days, know that MLB would instantly remedy that if the White House actually declares the sport worthy of a holiday. 

For now, we will have to settle with faking a cough sometime in late March, culminating in a coincidental call that we can’t make it into work, because the baseball flu is quite severe this year. 

 

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MLB Spring Training 2014: Team-by-Team Player Stats Tracker

It feels like just yesterday that the Boston Red Sox beat the St. Louis Cardinals and celebrated a World Series title, but with Major League Baseball’s spring training in full swing, the 2014 season is just on the horizon.

Even now it feels like the regular season is light-years away, but MLB on Twitter accurately pointed out that spring training is where successful campaigns start:

The Red Sox understand that better than perhaps any other team, and manager John Farrell wants his team to treat this year’s spring training as a clean slate after their World Series triumph, according to Mike Bauman of MLB.com:

To get back to a mindset that was from the first day of Spring Training last year, and not the most recent memory– which was a great one– but to recognize that there was a lot of work, a journey that went into getting that final out recorded in Fenway. I think as you’ve been around the guys since they’ve reported, the conversation, the talk is about what we do today, and not what’s happened previous. In a nutshell, that was probably the overall message.

Most teams likely feel the same way, and while some probably realize that a championship in 2014 isn’t necessarily realistic, spring training is an important tool for squads of all skill levels.

It is also a big deal for every player regardless of his age or experience. Veteran players will use spring training as a way to get their feel and timing down leading up to the season, while rookies view it as an opportunity to make their mark.

Spring training statistics are more important for some players than others, but fans take great interest in them regardless.

With that in mind, here is a full listing of every MLB team’s official spring training rosters, along with stats that will be updated after each game.

 

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What the San Francisco Giants Can Expect from Michael Morse in 2014

When the San Francisco Giants signed free agent outfielder Michael Morse on Dec. 17, the move signified Brian Sabean’s desire to fix something that wasn’t entirely broken. Yes, the addition of Morse to the lineup will surely bring power that would-be starter Gregor Blanco could never provide. The Giants have also struggled in the power-hitting department as of late.

But is an influx of home runs really what the team needs? Before we get ahead of ourselves in answering that question, it should be noted that Morse isn’t even guaranteed to bring power to the Giants lineup in the first place.

While he is just two years removed from a 31-homer season, it has taken Morse each of the last two seasons combined to match that total. That’s not to mention that the ex-Nationals slugger will be moving to the pitcher’s heaven that is AT&T Park, which featured the third-lowest home run rate in the majors in 2013 (per ESPN).

However, assuming Morse overcomes his lackluster performance from last season and becomes one of the Giants’ premier power sources, will he prove to be worth his $5 million price tag even then?

Part of the reason I’m hesitant to answer “yes” is that Morse won’t prove to be a significant upgrade over Blanco. That’s primarily because of the defensive liability that Morse has proven to be throughout his career. In fact, Morse has eclipsed Blanco’s WAR of 2.5 last season just once in his career, according to baseball-reference.com, and the former’s combined WAR over the last three seasons is still less than Blanco’s 2013 WAR, per baseball-reference.com.

Of course, WAR is not the all-encompassing statistic that it’s often made out to be. There’s quite a bit of value to be found in the late-inning home run that Morse will be able to provide far more often than Blanco. But with so much ground to cover in the AT&T Park outfield and the Giants’ heavy reliance on pitching, defense should often take precedence over offense in the outfield.

Despite all the potential pitfalls that the addition of Morse brings, the outlook isn’t all bad for the upcoming season. According to ZiPS, Morse is projected to compile a .719 OPS with a WAR of 1.2.

For $5 million, that’s pretty solid value, and it will almost certainly be an offensive upgrade over the alternative. Additionally, Bruce Bochy can insert Blanco into the lineup in the later innings for some defensive relief.

But perhaps the best part of the signing is the potential. Don’t forget, Morse did bat .294 with an .857 OPS in his four seasons in Washington. A return to that level of play isn’t entirely likely, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility either.

In my estimation, Morse will finish somewhere in between the aforementioned projected numbers and his pre-2013 numbers. A .265/.310/.450 slash line isn’t out of the question, and if all goes well, Morse could even approach 20 home runs.

Why those numbers? Most importantly, Morse has said he’s 100 percent healthy, according to Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News. According to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, Morse has also looked fantastic this spring, and he’s happy to be playing for the Giants.

That points toward a nice rebound for Morse, albeit at the price of poor defense in left field. Even so, for $5 million, that’s a bargain.

 

All statistics courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

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Tim Lincecum Rocks Awkward Mustache for Photo Day

With the San Francisco Giants taking individual pictures for photo day, starting pitcher Tim Lincecum decided to not shave his upper lip, giving us this very awkward mustache that we will likely see throughout the season whenever he’s on the mound.

Lincecum won’t be the first Giants pitcher to rock questionable facial hair. Barry Zito used to have quite a strange mustache back in 2011.

Of course, the craziest facial hair belonged to Brian Wilson, who had one of the biggest beards imaginable as the team’s closer.

Still, at least Zito and Wilson had a noteworthy amount of facial hair. Meanwhile, Lincecum’s mustache is almost too thin to count.

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Why Haven’t the Atlanta Braves Added Jason Heyward to Wave of Extensions?

After a winter of lavish spending on homegrown, ascending talents, the Atlanta Braves have locked up their young core—Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Craig Kimbrel and Julio Teheran—for years, ensuring the quartet will help guide the franchise into a new stadium in 2017.

Technically, 24-year-old Jason Heyward belongs in that group. Amid the wave of lucrative, long-term pacts handed out by Braves general manager Frank Wren, Heyward‘s name popped up on the transaction log on the same day news broke about Freeman’s franchise-changing deal.

Yet Heyward, potentially the most talented player on the roster, wasn’t guaranteed anything beyond the 2015 season. Atlanta was wise to buy out his remaining arbitration years, but the talented right fielder is careening toward an inevitable date with free agency. 

Clearly, Atlanta altered its business model this winter. After years of sporting payroll figures less than $100 million, the Braves locked up the core of a team that will soon become expensive. Despite that spending, Heyward wasn’t showered with the riches of his teammates. 

Why?

It depends what answer is more suitable to your opinion of Heyward as a player, both in the present and future. 

The easy answer: Heyward, despite the highest pedigree of any former top prospect on the roster, hasn’t yet proven to be worthy of a major commitment.  

The harder and more likely answer: Heyward‘s price tag, based on talent and production thus far in the majors, is too much for Atlanta’s ownership to handle.

Let’s start with the easy explanation for Heyward‘s unimpressive two-year, $13.3 million deal.

Despite immense talent, Heyward hasn’t yet become a dominant, game-changing force for the Braves or anything close to a perennial NL MVP candidate. That sentiment is backed up by counting stats.

Since 2010, Heyward has played in 100-plus big league games in each season. His big frame and natural swing seem custom built for power. Yet Heyward has only one campaign of 20-plus home runs thus far for Atlanta’s lineup.

Last year, Heyward drove in just 38 runs. That figure, while surprising on the surface, is an even more head-scratching statistic when looking at names above him on the RBI leader list: Jeff Keppinger, Darwin Barney and Daniel Descalso

Atlanta’s right fielder isn’t just producing less RBI than middle-of-the-order sluggers—he’s driving in less runs than replacement-level hitters. 

When Heyward emerged on the scene in 2010—launching a home run in his first major league at-bat—the sky seemed limitless for Atlanta’s new star. During that rookie season, he backed it up with a .393 on-base percentage and 131 OPS+, good enough to garner a second-place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year vote. 

Coupled with consecutive top-five prospect rankings by Baseball America, Heyward was expected to become an instant star. Since the 2010 season ended, Braves fans and Atlanta’s front office have been caught holding their collective breath for that star to arrive.

Although he hasn’t blossomed into baseball’s best player, the reason for Heyward‘s uncertain future has little to do with what he hasn’t done. Instead, it’s about the rare company he’s in among on-base machines and young, productive outfielders throughout baseball history.

Over the last few years, executives have spent lavishly on top-of-the-order hitters.  

Prior to the 2011 season, Carl Crawford signed a seven-year, $142 million contract with the Boston Red Sox. At the time, his career OBP was .337.

Before the 2012 season, Jose Reyes bolted New York for a six-year, $106 million deal with the Miami Marlins. Upon his arrival, Reyes’ career OBP stood at .341.

This winter, the New York Yankees awarded Jacoby Ellsbury a seven-year, $152 million pact to ignite the lineup. Since debuting in 2007, the former Red Sox outfielder has posted a .350 OBP.

Heyward enters 2014 with a career on-base percentage of .352, better than Crawford, Reyes or Ellsbury at the time of their contracts.

Last season, Atlanta moved Heyward into the leadoff spot for 30 games. During that time, the then 23-year-old reached base over 40 percent of the time. Heading into 2014, Fredi Gonzalez envisions Heyward reprising that role, per David O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

“If you had to start the season tomorrow, I think you would run him out there,” Gonzalez said. 

If he does, his career OBP could soon dwarf the outputs of Crawford, Reyes and Ellsbury.

Of course, Heyward‘s excellence isn’t just rooted in one statistic or contained to a specific skill set. When his age-22 season yielded 27 home runs, the young left-handed hitter placed himself in rare company among young outfield stars.

Over the course of baseball history, only 12 outfielders have reached the following criteria through their respective age-23 seasons: 2,000 plate appearances, 70 home runs and a .350 OBP. As the following chart illustrates, baseball’s best outfielders began their careers looking very similar to Heyward.

If this information is available to us, it’s certainly available to Atlanta’s front office and Heyward‘s representation.

When Heyward‘s name comes up, uncertainty and unfulfilled promise are often cited. When the Braves chose to leave their right fielder out of their long-term planning this winter, those narratives were at the forefront.

Sometimes, the easy answer isn’t the right answer.

It’s fair to say that Heyward hasn’t reached his potential. But it’s also eye-opening to consider what he’s done before that day arrives. 

When the Braves chose to re-sign the bulk of their core, Heyward wasn’t left out on purpose. Instead, it was an admission that this player may cost too much to retain.

 

Agree? Disagree? 

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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2014 Fantasy Baseball NL-Only First Base Rankings

Here’s the first look at the 2014 Lester’s Legends’ First Base Rankings for NL-only fantasy baseball leagues.

1. Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks

All Paul Goldschmidt did last year was hit .302 with 103 runs, 36 home runs, 125 RBI and 15 stolen bases. His success should come as no surprise, as he posted a .286-82-20-82-18 line in 2012. Goldschmidt was a highly touted prospect who has gradually become a star. At 26, he has solidified himself as the premiere first baseman in baseball.


2.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Joey Votto was a little disappointing, posting a .305-101-24-73-6 line last year, but he managed to play a full season after managing just 111 games in 2012. He’s a .314 hitter and has scored at least 100 runs in three different years. He won’t overwhelm you with his power, but he’s steady.


3. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves


Freddie Freeman posted a stellar .319-89-23-109-1 line. The Braves took care of him with a huge 
contract extension. He’s just 24, but he already has three seasons with at least 20 home runs. He should continue to grow.


4. Mark Trumbo, Arizona Diamondbacks 


Trumbo will transition to the outfield for the D’backs. He has averaged 31.7 home runs and 94 RBI over the past three seasons. His eligibility at outfield gives him added versatility.


5. Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers


Adrian Gonzalez’s power has dipped since leaving Boston, but he continues to provide a healthy batting average and plenty of RBI. Last year, he posted a .293-69-22-100-1 line. The Dodgers should have a potent lineup, which should put A-Gone in line for another stellar year.

6. Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals

Allen Craig hit .315 with 71 runs, 13 home runs and 97 RBI. He doesn’t provide much power for the position, but he’s hit .311 with 94.5 RBI per season over the past two years.

7. Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo hit just .233, but he mashed 23 home runs with 80 RBI. He hit .285 in 337 at-bats in 2012, so he could turn things around—particularly if he can improve on his .258 BABIP.


8. Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants


Brandon Belt hit .289 with 76 runs, 17 home runs, 67 RBI and five stolen bases. He’ll give you a nice average and a little pop.


9. Justin Morneau, Colorado Rockies


Justin Morneau’s 152 games played were his most since 2008. He finished with 17 home runs and 77 RBI. He had 19 home runs and 77 RBI in 2012. Going to Colorado should help improve Morneau’s numbers.


10. Adam LaRoche, Washington Nationals


Adam LaRoche has quietly hit at had at least 20 home runs and 75 RBI in seven of the last nine seasons. He’s not flashy, but he’s consistent.

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