Tag: Stephen Strasburg

2014 MLB Playoffs: Making a Case for the Washington Nationals as Your New Team

You’re a fan without a nation. 

The 2014 MLB Playoff field is set, and while you mourn your beloved New York Yankees from your home probably nowhere near New York, you need a surrogate team. Well, the Washington Nationals bandwagon is accepting applications, and no other franchise makes a better case for your temporary affection. 

The single biggest selling point for Washington isn’t its National League-best 96-66 record, but the way in which those 96 games were won. 

And the only way to truly understand the grit that defines the Nationals is to take an uncomfortable trip down memory lane.

The Nationals don’t play with a chip on their shoulder, they carry around a family-sized bag that they picked up from a 2013 season that can only be qualified as an abject failure.

Washington was coming off a 2012 campaign that saw them earn the best record in baseball, and the core of that season’s roster was still intact for 2013. But the Nationals under-performed from the get go, finding themselves in the conversation for “baseball’s most disappointing team,” according to an article by SportingNews’s Justin McGuire that year. 

The individual parts were a disappointment – i.e. Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg – and their sum was a disappointment. 

It is for that reason that Washington is taking nothing for granted this year, and it’s made the Nationals the most fun team in baseball to watch. And from top to bottom, every member of Washington’s roster wants to win every game. 

And they want it bad.

In a season that spans 162 games across five-plus months, two distinct moments during the summer of 2014 can be pointed to as evidence of that spirit. 

In middle-to-late August, Washington matched its franchise-record win streak of 10 games. 

That’s not the impressive part. 

Half of those games were won in walk-off fashion. The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg calculated the likelihood of a run like that to be around 0.0977 percent. 

That’s the kind of season 2014 has been for Washington. The Nationals are extremely talented, and they’ve won the games they’re supposed to win, which should have been good for six or seven of those 10 games. 

The remaining wins in the streak? Baseball giveth and baseball taketh away, and the Nationals have made good on the former this year.

The other instance that encapsulated what Washington has been able to do this year fell on the very last day of the season.

Jordan Zimmerman’s no-hitter in game No. 162 of the year saw him exercise complete dominance over helpless Marlins hitters, until the very last out. 

Steven Souza Jr. took over in left field before the start of the ninth inning, making just his 21st big-league appearance of the season, and made arguably the catch of the season to preserve the first no-hitter in franchise history.

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Scott Miller’s Starting 9: Derek Jeter Not Only Star Saying Farewell This Week

1. Farewell to The Captain…The Other Captain

And now, the end is near, Frank Sinatra is cued up and the Captain will face his final curtain.   

No, not Derek Jeter.   

Well, him, too, which is why when that final curtain falls this Sunday in Chicago, Paul Konerko will be over there in the shadows while all eyes are on Jeter’s finale in Boston.

There will be no lump-in-the-throat Gatorade commercial bringing Konerko home, no national spotlight. But the least we can do is pause long enough to send a tip of the cap to the Derek Jeter of the White Sox, a graceful player who will have his No. 14 retired this weekend as Chicago emotionally celebrates its own retiring legend.

“They’re both smart, classy, talented guys,” says Braves hitting coach Greg Walker, Konerko’s hitting coach with the White Sox from 2003-11. “I think how Paulie represented baseball shined a light for other players on how to do it the right way.

“If your best player does it the right way, then your young players will do it the right way, too.”

For 16 seasons, Konerko has done everything the right way in Chicago. His Game 2 grand slam against the Astros in ’05 helped the Sox win their first World Series in 88 years. His five homers and 15 RBI during that ’05 postseason will be remembered vividly even when Ozzie Guillen’s great-great grandson is playing shortstop on the South Side a few decades from now.

Konerko’s 432 homers and 1,383 RBI trail only Hall of Famer Frank Thomas in White Sox history, and only Hall of Famer Luke Appling played in more games for Chicago. Only Nellie Fox and Appling had more hits for the White Sox, and Konerko is the club’s all-time leader in total bases.

“I’ll tell you this,” says former White Sox pitcher Jake Peavy. “When I played with him and he was right, he was the best fastball hitter I’ve ever played with. He didn’t miss a fastball.”

Says Walker: “One of the best fastball hitters, if not the best, of his generation.”

For years, wherever Walker has traveled, hitters throughout the land have wanted to know the secrets to Konerko’s approach, mechanics and work ethic.

“Really a brilliant guy,” Walker says. “Early on when we worked together, we made an agreement: If I wanted to make any changes, it would have to be scientific.” Meaning, Konerko knew at all times exactly where his hands were during an at-bat, where his feet were placed and the general parameters of his swing path. And he was more obsessive-compulsive about all of it than an old couple insisting on an uncluttered house.

If anything—anything—was to be changed, Konerko wanted specific reasons.

But because he was so in tune with all of this, and because he was so analytical, Konerko was the master of making adjustments on the fly. And as such, he became the Man of a Million Swings.

“I used to joke with him, ‘What swing are you going to use today?’ ” Walker says. “And he’d say, ‘Number 72.’ Or, ‘Number 38.’

“I’ve seen him step out of the box, make an adjustment during the at-bat, step back in and hit a home run.”

Adds Walker: “I think that’s why he’s been such a big-game player. World Series, All-Star Games, he can make adjustments most people can’t. Or, instead of looking at it like, ‘This is the way I’ve always done it,’ he’ll say ‘Let’s come up with something else. I’m not going to keep making the same mistake over and over.'”

A lot of people are going to miss Konerko throughout the game, and it goes far beyond the White Sox simply being without one of the best middle-of-the-lineup players they’ve ever had.

“There’s not a whole lot of talk about him,” Peavy says. “Listen, Derek Jeter deserves every bit of credit. But Paul Konerko has had a wonderful career, and he’s done it the right way in a big city as well.

“It was an honor to play with such a great player and call him a friend.”

 

2. Atlanta Follows Brave New Path

Even more impressive than the Braves’ streak of 14 consecutive titles was their run of stability: Not since 1990 had they fired a general manager or manager.

That is, until Monday, the day after they were eliminated from the postseason, when they tomahawk-chopped GM Frank Wren.

The Braves’ second massive collapse in four seasons doomed Wren, who constructed a flawed roster with too many high-strikeout, low-on-base guys who failed to click. The Braves also fired Bruce Manno, director of player development.

At a press conference Monday, club president John Schuerholz spoke of “putting in place the finest baseball operations [staff] ever seen in Major League Baseball” to take the club to “higher and greater ground.”

Three early names to watch:

• John Coppolella, 35, the Braves’ assistant general manager, is very highly thought of and respected throughout the game.

• Kansas City GM Dayton Moore, who worked in Atlanta’s organization from 1994 to 2006 before leaving for the Royals. Schuerholz repeatedly referenced the “Braves Way” Monday, and Moore certainly knows the blueprint there. He’s worked hard to install a similar plan in Kansas City, where he has two years left on his contract.

• Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry, who built a winner for a time in Chicago and currently is Yankees GM Brian Cashman’s assistant. Hendry has a very good relationship with Schuerholz and Co., knows talent and would seem to fit in well in the Braves’ collegial atmosphere.

Beyond that, longtime baseball man John Hart, named as the Braves’ interim GM by his good pal Schuerholz, is said to be enjoying his television work at MLB Network and the flexibility that affords him too much to want to go back to being a GM full time.

However, he also would not definitively rule out the idea of him becoming Atlanta’s full-time GM. As Schuerholz quipped, “It is not a completely closed or open door, is what he meant to say.”

Several of Wren’s high-profile free-agent signings became unmitigated disasters, most notably outfielder B.J. Upton (five years, $75.25 million), Dan Uggla (five years, $62 million) and Derek Lowe (four years, $60 million). Add some internal discord—among other things, Cox and Wren clashed, something that went very public when Cox failed to mention the GM during his Hall of Fame induction speech this summer—and the door to Wren’s exit was opened wide.

As for the biggest on-field reasons, Upton and Uggla, in particular, were representative of the club’s streaky, high-strikeout lineups in recent years.

As one longtime executive told Bleacher Report, “Two contracts like that set your organization back for years.”

Added a longtime scout: “They’ve got to split up the Upton brothers.” Justin, acquired by Wren in a trade, has outperformed his brother.

Schuerholz says the new GM will have the ultimate decision on manager Fredi Gonzalez, who survived Monday’s bloodletting, and there is a high probability that when the Braves convene next spring in Florida, Gonzalez will remain as manager.

Asked whether he would endorse Gonzalez to the new GM, Hall of Fame manager Bobby Cox said, “Yes, absolutely.”

Cox was fierce in his support.

“Fredi’s done a remarkable job since he’s taken over,” Cox said. “For me, since 2011, I think he’s been outstanding. Last year, he had a difficult time winning 96 games with the things that were taking place.”

 

3. Let’s Get a Move On

Anybody who’s been to a baseball game lately knows that…zzzzzz.

Sorry, dozed off there. Allow me to start again:

Anybody who’s watched a baseball game on television lately knows that…zzzzzz.

OK, let me put this another way: The top priority of incoming commissioner Rob Manfred must be to reconnect with the younger generation. That covers a lot of ground, and one key tenet is tackling the (snail’s) pace of game.

Baseball announced Monday that Bud Selig recently conducted a conference call with a new pace-of-game committee, which will be chaired by Braves president Schuerholz and also includes Manfred, Mets GM Sandy Alderson, Red Sox co-owner Tom Werner and team partner Michael Gordon, players’ union boss Tony Clark and MLB executive VP Joe Torre.

The average MLB game this year is running a whopping three hours and 13 minutes. Here are a few things the committee should be discussing:

• Enforce a rule already on the books, that pitchers have a maximum of 12 seconds to throw the ball after they receive it. Not to pick on one guy in particular, because many are guilty, but Giants reliever Jean Machi on Sunday took 41 seconds to deliver one pitch in San Diego, and 35 seconds to deliver another.

 Once hitters step into the batter’s box, they should stay there. No stepping out after every pitch to adjust batting gloves, helmets or to look for ma in the stands.

 Kill walkup songs. Just do away with them. Look, I’m into music as much as anybody, but all the walkup songs do is cause the batter to move more slowly into the box. Get in there and get to work.

 Streamline the new instant replay system. This one is obvious. Managers sloooowly walking out to an umpire while waiting to get word from a coach as to whether they should challenge a call is wasting more time than your Aunt Hattie on the telephone. This one has got to be seriously tweaked.

 Plate umpires need to call the entire strike zone, both north to south and east to west. Small strike zones drag things out. Call a big zone, it moves the game along and it encourages hitters to swing, rather than pick over every pitch as if sorting through peaches looking for the ripest.

 

4. Matt Kemp Rising

Maybe we were all wrong about Matt Kemp. Perhaps all he needed following major shoulder and ankle surgeries was, duh, time, sweet time to work off the rust and recalibrate his timing.

Following his four-hit, four-RBI day Sunday, Kemp entered this week leading all NL regulars after the All-Star break in slugging percentage (.594), was second in home runs (15) and fourth in OPS (.964). He ranked second to teammate Adrian Gonzalez (52) with 49 RBI. The talk of how to squeeze four outfielders into three spots has dissipated. Kemp not only has earned the right to play every day—the Dodgers need him. Especially with Hanley Ramirez in and out of the lineup and Yasiel Puig’s inconsistency this year.

And don’t underestimate the fact that since getting yanked out of center field because he was becoming a liability, Kemp has found a comfort level in right field that he did not in left. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly initially moved him to left before settling on right, the position Kemp grew up playing. Through Monday, Kemp had played 44 games in left this season for the Dodgers, 41 games in center and 54 in right.

 

5. Big Week for Pirates

As the Pirates and Giants jockey for NL wild-card position—so long, Brewers—logic tells you that home-field advantage in next week’s Wild Card Game will be invaluable to the Pirates.

Their 51-30 home record is tied with St. Louis for the NL’s best. And baseball fever is fully back at PNC Park, where the Pirates set a record this season with more than 2.4 million in attendance.

Now for the twist: Oddly, a Giants-Pirates Wild Card Game in Pittsburgh might also be best for…San Francisco?

The Giants have not played particularly well at home this year. They are 42-35 at AT&T Park only because they’ve won 12 of their past 15 games there. Until a 6-1 homestand last month against Colorado and Milwaukee, the Giants were stumbling badly at home in one of many odd turns to their year.

Overall, coming into this week, the Giants ranked eighth among NL teams in runs scored at home (303), eighth in home batting average (.257) and 11th in slugging percentage at home (.381).

 

6. Nationals Treasure: Should He or Shouldn’t He?

The biggest question as Stephen Strasburg prepares to participate in the first postseason of his career is whether he should start Game 1 next week for the Nationals.

During a wide-ranging discussion on MLB Network Radio last week, I said I’d go with Jordan Zimmermann. A very well-reasoned caller made a case for Doug Fister.

Now, indications are that manager Matt Williams may choose Strasburg. So, please allow me to do what managers who are preparing for the postseason all over are doing: re-evaluate and study daily. And the more I do, the more I’m thinking Strasburg.

For one thing, the man who would be the Nats’ ace has pitched as if he is in his most recent outings. Over his past five starts, Strasburg has produced a 1.35 ERA with 33 strikeouts and just two walks. For another, the Nats will open the Division Series at home, and Strasburg, for whatever reason, has been much more comfortable there this season.

In 17 home games at Nationals Park, Strasburg is 8-3 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.055 WHIP.

In 16 road games, the right-hander is 5-8 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.232 WHIP.

If the Nationals are going to go as far as they hope, Strasburg is going to have to win on the road in October. But given his current run and his home credentials, as well as the fact that the Nationals have treated him as an ace all along, he’s earned Game 1.

 

7. Jerome Williams, Athletics Killer

If Oakland misses the playoffs by a game, you can blame veteran right-hander Jerome Williams, who over the weekend became the first pitcher in history to beat a team three times in a season while pitching for three different clubs.

Working for the Phillies, Williams beat the A’s on Saturday.

Working for the Rangers, Williams beat the A’s on July 25.

Working for the Astros, Williams beat the A’s on April 26.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only one pitcher since 1900 has even had a chance to beat the same club three times in a season for three different teams: Willis Hudlin, who beat the Philadelphia Athletics (yes, the A’s again) pitching for Cleveland and the Washington Senators in 1940. He faced them again later that season while pitching for the St. Louis Browns, but, alas, the Browns lost.

 

8. Award-Winning Short

Have you seen Gatorade’s spot on Derek Jeter’s farewell? If you haven’t, you absolutely should. It is terrific:

 

9. This Guy Once Ate Vicks VapoRub

Bumped into the inimitable, legendary Kevin Mitchell at the park the other day. Mitch always was a favorite. He was fun to watch, always had a smile and often some crazy story that made you wonder if he really was a native of, say, Pluto. Like the Vicks story. He used to say when he had a cold he would eat a bit of the stuff.

Anyway, Mitch looks pretty good. No heavier than when he was playing. Still rocking the gold front tooth. But he’s due for right hip replacement surgery within the next couple of weeks, which will temporarily sideline him from his work as a hitting instructor for kids from seven or eight years old all the way up through college age at the Brick Yard in San Diego.

He asked whether I thought the Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton or the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw would win the NL MVP award. You can guess who he’s rooting for.

“I’m a hitter,” said Mitchell, who added that he doesn’t attend many MLB games anymore, but he made it a point to come to Petco Park earlier this season to see Stanton.

“Unbelievable,” Mitchell said. “Love him. I’ve never seen the kid play. Only on TV. I wanted to see how big he is. He makes the game seem easy.”

And?

“These kids are unbelievably big.”

About that time, Padres broadcaster Mark Grant, who once was traded for Mitchell, came over to say hello and asked Mitchell if he remembered the time he came to the park all depressed because he had lost his snake.

“Yes,” Mitchell said. “He was gone for two-and-a-half months.”

Two-and-a-half months? Turned out, the snake was hiding in Mitchell’s house all that time. Then one day, just as quickly as the snake disappeared, he reappeared.

“Came out hungry,” Mitchell said.

 

9a. Rock ‘n’ Roll Lyric of the Week

Ah, you slumping Athletics, Brewers and Braves…

“Now you’re lookin’ at a man that’s gettin’ kinda mad

“I had a lot of luck but it’s all been bad

“No matter how I struggle and strive

“I’ll never get out of this world a-live

“My fishin’ pole’s broke, the creek is full of sand

“My woman run away with another man

“No matter how I struggle and strive

“I’ll never get out of this world alive

“Ev’rything’s agin’ me and it’s got me down

“If I jumped in the river I would prob’ly drown

“No matter how I struggle and strive

“I’ll never get out of this world alive

—Steve Earle, “I’ll Never Get Out of This World Alive”

 

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has over two decades of experience covering MLB, including 14 years as a national baseball columnist at CBSSports.com.

Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball @ScottMillerBbl.

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Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg Records 1st 200-Strikeout Season of Career

Though he gave up five runs and lasted just four innings, Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg recorded his 200th strikeout of the season during Sunday’s 14-6 win over the San Francisco Giants.

He entered Sunday’s contest with 198 strikeouts, looking to hit 200 for the first time in his career. The 26-year-old righty reached the milestone in the second inning when he caught Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong looking.

Strasburg had already surrendered a pair of runs at that point, and he’d later exit with a 5-2 deficit, only to watch his teammates storm back for a blowout victory. With no part in the decision, Strasburg still owns a 10-10 record, though his ERA (3.59) and WHIP (1.20) took a hit.

The right-hander became the fifth pitcher to hit the 200-strikeout mark this year, joining David Price (221), Max Scherzer (209), Corey Kluber (205) and Felix Hernandez (204), all of whom play in the American League.

Strasburg‘s closest competitors for the National League strikeout crown are Johnny Cueto (191) and Clayton Kershaw (184), the only two remaining candidates for Cy Young honors.

While his other statistics have been a bit disappointing this year, Strasburg is already tied for ninth place on the Nationals/Expos single-season strikeout list, with his 202 matching the total accumulated by Floyd Youmans in 1986.

Pedro Martinez, who struck out 305 batters in 1997, is safely perched atop said list. However, with Bill Stoneman (251 in 1977) sitting well below Martinez in second place, Strasburg has a shot to grab the No. 2 spot on the list.

It will take an impressive effort, as Strasburg needs 50 more strikeouts to pass Stoneman and will likely make just six, or perhaps seven, more starts this season. The NL strikeout crown is a much easier goal, though Kershaw is closing in fast.

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What to Make of Stephen Strasburg’s Wildly Inconsistent 2014

Things were looking up for Stephen Strasburg headed into his start on Friday night against the Atlanta Braves. At least that’s how it seemed.

After posting a 3.18 ERA with 44 strikeouts over 39.2 innings in July, Strasburg kicked off August with his best start of the season, striking out 10 batters and scattering three hits over seven shutout innings versus the Phillies.

And considering he was scheduled to face a Braves squad mired in an eight-game losing streak, all signs pointed to the 26-year-old right-hander having another strong outing.

However, Strasburg was anything but dominant Friday night, allowing seven runs on seven hits in five innings. The Nats mounted a valiant comeback late in the game, but ultimately fell to the Braves 7-6.

It was the second time this season and third time in his career that he gave up seven earned runs in a start. To make matters worse, four of the seven hits against Strasburg were home runs, which represents the most he’s allowed in a game over 100 starts in the major leagues. Basically, the only good news to emerge from the outing was Strasburg struck out nine batters.

Overall, Strasburg’s season has been as inconsistent as his past two starts suggest, with his performance varying from month to month and start to start.

Strasburg has shown glimpses of putting everything together all year, but the reality is that he’s posted an ERA above 5.00 twice (June and so far August) and has one month with a sub-3.00 ERA (May).

So what’s to make of Strasburg’s inconsistent season?

Here are some possible explanations for the right-hander’s struggles.

 

Early-Inning Woes

One of Strasburg’s biggest issues this season has been his pitch execution early in games, as he has a tendency to struggle through the first few innings before finally settling in around the third or fourth.

Unfortunately, Strasburg’s struggles were on full display Friday, as he yielded a pair of runs with two outs in the first inning on a home run by Justin Upton. He also had trouble getting the third out in the second inning too, as he surrendered two more two-run shots to B.J. Upton and Freddie Freeman, respectively.

However, after a disastrous first two innings, Strasburg bounced back to retire the next seven batters, five via strikeout, before Tommy La Stella opened the fifth inning with a solo home run, his first big league homer. Strasburg went on to finish the inning and outing with swinging strikeouts of Justin Upton and Evan Gattis.

Though frustrating, Strasburg’s struggles during the first and second innings aren’t overly concerning in terms of his performance over the duration of the regular season; the right-hander has proved he can still miss bats and hang around for at least five innings when he’s at his worst, which is still better than 90 percent of all big league starters.

That being said, Strasburg’s situation will be discussed more and more leading up the postseason, as a rough start in game one or two of a five- or seven-game series could potentially crush the Nats’ World Series dreams in a hurry.

 

Home/Road Splits

Strasburg really, really likes pitching at Nationals Park.

In his 13 home starts this season, Strasburg has pitched to a 7-2 record, 2.41 ERA and 112/14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 86 innings while also holding opposing hitters to a .234 batting average

In general, the 26-year-old has always pitched better at home, though he’s also never struggled as badly on the road than he is this season. However, that’s not completely his fault.

Opposing hitters have an unsustainable .361 batting average on balls put in play against Strasburg this year over his 12 road starts, meaning that his unattractive stat line is at least partially driven by poor luck.

Yet, Strasburg’s road walk rate this year is actually better than his career average, but he’s striking out roughly two less batters per nine innings and getting hit around more often.

 

Fastball Velocity and Effectiveness

Strasburg’s fastball velocity has been declining over the last three seasons, as he’s averaging 95.59 mph with the pitch this year after sitting at 96.32 mph in 2013 and 96.77 mph in 2012. It’s not a significant or particularly concerning dip in velocity, but still a dip nonetheless.

However, part of that simply could be Strasburg sacrificing power for command, which makes sense considering the right-hander also has spent time this season adjusting his setup on the rubber.

Via Adam Kilgore the Washington Post:

“It just kind of dawned on me,” Strasburg said. “I was talking to [pitching coach Steve McCatty] about it. I was like, ‘I’ve done this for such a long time. It was like, will this help things if I make the adjustment?’ I’m seeing a bunch of other great pitchers do that. A lot of the control pitchers and a lot of the elite pitchers in the game — I’d say the majority of them — don’t have their foot on top of the rubber.”

[…]

“It’s just little things like that,” Strasburg said. “I noticed a lot of the command pitchers, they’re able to control their delivery down the hill, and they get to a better balance point. In the past, for the longest time, when my foot’s on the rubber, it’s harder for me to control the delivery and have the same tempo.”

While it’s hard to say with any sense of certainty whether Strasburg’s mechanical and/or philosophical adjustments have affected his fastball, it is clear that his heater has become increasingly hittable over the last year, and more and more players are driving the pitch for extra bases.

 

Final Thoughts

The only reason we scrutinize Stephen Strasburg’s every pitch is because we all recognize his potential to be the best pitcher in baseball. It might seem like he’s having a down season—if only because his career-worst outing on Friday is still fresh on everyone’s minds—but Strasburg actually ranks among the MLB leaders in numerous categories.

Per FanGraphs, the right-hander’s 10.71 K/9 ranks third among all qualified starters behind Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw; his 2.53 xFIP ranks third behind Kershaw and Felix Hernandez; and his .341 BABIP is the highest among all starting pitchers with at least 150 IP.

Additionally, Strasburg’s 23 percent K%-BB% is the highest rate of his career and ranks fifth in all of baseball, per FanGraphs, while his 36 percent OSwing% (pitches swung at outside the strike zone) and 11.9 percent SwSTR% (swinging strike rate) rank fifth and seventh, respectively.

And I’d be remiss not to mention that Strasburg has 11 outings this season with nine-plus strikeouts, and he’s yet to unintentionally walk more than three batters in a game.

Strasburg already has put together a great season, but the next two months will determine whether he’s a front-of-the-rotation arm or a legitimate ace.

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MLB: Tony Gwynn’s Death and Chewing Tobacco in Baseball

Major League Baseball mourned an all-time great player and person on June 16 when San Diego Padres icon Tony Gwynn died. More than a week has gone by and Gwynn’s death is still impacting others around baseball, particularly those who use smokeless or chewing tobacco.

Gwynn was just 54 when he died following a tumultuous battle with parotid (mouth) cancer. While multiple factors could have contributed to his cancer, Gwynn was always adamant that a chewing tobacco habit that he kept up long after his playing days was the the culprit.

Back in 2010, Gwynn told Bill Center of U-T San Diego that chew was to blame following his original diagnosis. “I haven’t discussed that with the doctors yet, but I’m thinking it’s related to dipping,” Gwynn said.

According to the National Institute on Drug Abuse, Gwynn’s suspicions made sense.

Chewing tobacco and snuff contain 28 carcinogens (cancer–causing agents). Smokeless tobacco increases the risk for cancer of the oral cavity, which can include cancer of the lip, tongue, cheeks, gums, and the floor and roof of the mouth. Other effects include oral leukoplakia (white mouth lesions that can become cancerous), gum disease, and gum recession (when the gum pulls away from the teeth). Possible increased risks for heart disease, diabetes, and reproductive problems are being studied.

The American Cancer Society lists smokeless tobacco as a cause of mouth, tongue, cheek, gum and throat cancer as well.

For decades, Gwynn put pinches, even handfuls of tobacco in his mouth day after day. He started every game of his career by putting a wad in his mouth. This year, a habit picked up while playing rookie ball in 1981 finally caught up with him.

While it may be too late for Mr. Padre, the Hall of Famer’s death has had a positive impact on at least two present day big leaguers.

In the days since Gwynn’s death, Washington’s Stephen Strasburg and Arizona’s Addison Reed, who both played under Gwynn at San Diego State University, announced they would cease their own dipping habits. 

According to ESPN, Reed threw out several chewing tobacco tins in the locker room following the death of his former college coach. He explained how his use came about: 

It’s one of those things where I’ve done it for so long it’s just become a habit, a really bad habit. It was something I always told myself I would quit, like next month, and the next thing you know it’s been six or seven years.

It started to get bad my first year in pro ball and it’s one of those things where I’ve always done it. I’d come to the field and throw one in and have multiple ones. I’d have one on the ride home, one on the way to the field and it was one of those things where I always had one with me.

Strasburg cited his family as an additional reason to give up using, according to Bill Ladson of MLB.com.

I think it’s a disgusting habit, looking back on it. I was pretty naive when I started. Just doing it here and there, I didn’t think it was going to be such an addiction. Bottom line is, I want to be around for my family. This is something that can affect people the rest of your life. [Chewing tobacco is] so prevalent in this game. It’s something we all kind of grew up doing.

Hopefully this is a trend that continues in the majors. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that an MLB survey found that smokeless tobacco use among players is down to 33 percent. It was at 50 percent 20 years ago.

However, Heyman also reported that MLB’s efforts to ban tobacco products in the game all together failed at the last collective bargaining agreement talks:

MLB pushed for a ban at the bargaining table at the last CBA talks, and while only one-third of MLB players still use the stuff, it was said to be one of the last things to resolve on the table. A ban realistically never had much hope.

MLB is said by people involved in the talks to actually have ‘pushed very hard’ for the banning of smokeless tobacco in those discussions, with the players’ union pushing back just as hard to keep it legal in the game. The union, driven on this issue by its players, ultimately won the point, though some rule refinements were intended to lessen usage and the harm caused by it.

With a nod to the concept of MLB players as role models, the players did agree to a program to promote quitting, to keep usage discreet and to mandate spring mouth screenings. But smokeless tobacco, while banned at the minor-league level, remains legal in the majors, provided the can or tin isn’t visible. If it is visible, warnings and finings were laid out.

While it may not be the result the league was hoping for, this program is a good one. With the players union dead set against a ban, keeping the tins out of the spotlight is the next best thing. These players are indeed role models, so when kids see them dipping and spitting, they want to get in on it, too. Far too many young ballplayers have picked up the habit without realizing the potential damage they were doing.

It was in eighth grade when I first noticed my teammates dipping. Think about that. That is a 13-year-old kid on an addictive substance. Naturally, the number of players around me packing continued to grow as the years went by and we got older. Throughout years of high school and travel ball, I was one of only a few not to touch the stuff. At the very least, almost everyone tried it.

I asked a lot of my teammates why they dipped over the years. Some liked the buzz while others just did it because it was used so frequently around them. However, one answer always stood out to me.

“Its a baseball thing” was something I heard over and over again. I always wanted to argue against that idea, but it was true.

No baseball organization has showcased this “thing” more than Major League Baseball. It has become part of the game’s culture, and that is not good. Kids see pros chewing and spitting and they want to try it.

The problem is they do not realize the harm they are doing, the fact that these substances are addictive. Forget that it is a disgusting habit as Strasburg said, it takes years off your life! There is no other reason for a professional athlete to be dead at 54.

In the wake of Gwynn’s death, it is good to see that a few guys have realized the dangers of their tobacco use. The league has already tried to rid baseball of tobacco products. Hopefully players, at all levels, begin to do their part.

 

What are your thoughts on chewing tobacco in baseball? Feel free to comment below or follow me on Twitter @GPhillips2727 to talk anything baseball.

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Pitch Counts Are Good for Kids, Bad for Major Leaguers

Pitch counts are now an acknowledged part of baseball. For all the sabermetric advances in the game, the one that’s made the most inroads into the consciousness of baseball fans and the actions of baseball teams is the simple pitch count.

The problem is, it’s not helping.

Baseball has stuck to something simple, sticking to clickers over research. While the Moneyball revolution has taken over front offices, the old-school mentality is still allowed to manage and mismanage health with a minimum of information. Often pitching coaches have nothing more to go on than a number on a clicker and a cliched response to “how do you feel?” 

Injuries continue to trend up. While it’s well known that Tommy John surgeries are up over the first few weeks of the season, already over the total of all of 2013, it’s not just elbow reconstruction. Injuries have cost MLB a billion dollars over the last five years, and worse, that total has held over any rolling five-year period, according to data in my proprietary injury database and confirmed with MLB and independent data.

Pitch counts and systems of counting were first popularized by Craig Wright in his seminal work The Diamond Appraised. Wright, along with Dr. Tom House, theorized that high usage would be problematic for both performance and injuries. While House was famous at the time for his work with Nolan Ryan, he’s long been an advocate of pitch efficiency and agreed with Wright. However, there wasn’t much change at the major league level.

In 1999, Dr. Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus (and now Grantlandintroduced a better measure, called Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP). That system was improved upon by Jazayerli and Keith Woolner, now a top executive with the Cleveland Indians. Both systems measured the exponential increase in damage of pitchers above 100. 

It’s key that the 100-pitch mark, first stated as a rule of thumb by baseball legend Paul Richards, held up to Jazayerli and Woolner‘s research. However, there’s actually nothing special about the number itself. Moreover, it’s clear that the response to hitting that mark is individualized. While their research showed that there is increasing risk, there was no clear correlation to injury. 

Over the last 15 years since Jazayerli‘s research was published, pitch counts have become orthodoxy. As a pitcher approaches 100 pitches, managers get the bullpen going whether or not a pitcher appears tired. It’s key to PAP that the research was focused on short-term results after high pitch count games rather than longer-term injuries, though it goes without saying that the two should go hand in hand. 

It could be argued that other factors reduced pitch counts from their historic levels to their modern equivalent, such as the La Russa model of bullpen management, increased power around the game that necessitated increased effort/velocity on every pitch, the Jobe “Thrower’s Ten” exercises that reduced shoulder injuries among other factors. That said, the widespread reduction of pitch counts coincident to the Jazayerli/Woolner research seems causative.

Conversely, modern managers have resisted using a “quick hook” when pitchers are in trouble early as well, so as not to extend the bullpen. Starters have become simply another role, just as the closer, the setup man and the LOOGY (lefty one out guy) have become defined, even rigid, bullpen roles. The starter is now designed to go six or seven innings, more or less 100 pitches, every start regardless of any other circumstance.

Jazayerli acknowledges that in today’s game, as a result of his research and baseball’s response to it, high pitch counts matter less, simply because they so seldom happen. “[T]he difference between 100 and 120 pitches is so much less meaningful than the difference between 120 and 140 pitches. It’s not that pitch counts don’t matter – it’s that pitch counts at the level they are in 2014 hardly matter anymore,” Jazayerli told me by email.

Remember that this is all focused on major league pitch counts. Pitchers at this level are the elite of the elite and have already not only survived the long path to the big leagues, they have largely remained injury free. What is reasonable to expect from physically mature pitchers making millions of dollars is nothing like what we should expect from high school athletes or younger. However, over and over, we’re reminded that this is exactly what we’re doing. 

I could link to story after story about pitchers at the high school or college levels that are going 150 or more pitches. I could link to story after story about youth pitchers that play for two or three travel teams and pitch several games a week, often at high pitch counts.

This is in spite of Little League taking a proactive stand on pitch counts. Little League commissioned Dr. James Andrews and Dr. Glenn Fleisig of the American Sports Medicine Institute to research the effect of pitch counts on youth pitchers. Their research, done over a period of years, led to Little League adopting strict pitch count rules in 2007. In a one-year followup, Dr. Fleisig said they did see a reduction in injuries, though he has not done a longer-term study on the effects. 

Unfortunately, these regulations have had an unintended consequence. At the same time that Little League was taking a stand, there was a rise in travel teams and showcase events. In both of these, there is a lack of regulation and a surplus of radar guns. The combination is often cited as a major cause in the rise of pitching injuries.

In the absence of an athletic trainer or other trained medical professional, pitch count is a reasonable tool to be used. When I wrote Saving The Pitcher in 2004, we tested the ability of several groups—scouts, ATs and moms—to detect fatigue. All of them tended to be close and matched well with pitch count. The pitch count had to be individualized, but in the absence of better measures, pitch count regulation or monitoring is likely the best available option.  

“Pitch counts are an artificial control,” said Dr. Glenn Fleisig. “We know that overuse is accumulated and that pitching when fatigued is damaging, so this works for a broad population. It’s not individualized. Some pitchers could go 100 pitches and some could go 50, but we set the limits to do the most good possible. It’s up to the coaches and athletes at some point.”

However, the best available option for youth players with no professional supervision should be far from the best available option for million-dollar arms. Sadly, that’s not the case even in 2014. 

Indeed, the problem is that at the major league level, we learn nothing from the pitch count. If it was merely a linear fatigue problem, relievers would never get injured. What we have is a multivariate issue that goes well beyond what a simple counting stat could ever hope to accurately measure. So why are we stuck on something so simple and ineffective?

Alan Jaeger, one of the top pitching instructors in the country who has worked with many pro pitchers, thinks that the culture itself is the problem. “There is no question in my mind from 24 years of both training arms, and having a pulse on how arms are trained in the amateur community (more throwing/conditioning), compared to the professional community (less throwing/conditioning) that the most fundamental reason why we have so many arm problems is conservatism and restriction at the professional level.”

Jaeger thinks that what we’re seeing is a symptom, not the cause. “The pitch count is simply a by-product of this mentality. So until we deal with the foundation of why arms are breaking down, I feel strongly that we aren’t going to unearth the real answers by ascertaining the role of pitch counts.”

What baseball needs is an accessible direct measure of fatigue. While pitch count is a reasonable proxy, it only works in the aggregate. Greg Maddux may be effective for 85 pitches, but for those, he’s a Hall of Famer. Livan Hernandez could go 150, but no one’s expecting him to head for Cooperstown. Both can be useful, even leading a staff, but neither pitch count on its own tells us much about the pitcher.

Instead, we need a measure of both fatigue and recovery. Baseball in 2014 has no direct measure and few teams are even seeking out this kind of measure. While recovery is understood as a key point, even in a five-man rotation, few teams are doing anything to measure this. We have a descended wisdom only a few decades long, and in those decades, we’ve seen injuries increase.

We do have to consider that at some level, pitch counts do work. They may not reduce overall injuries, but for a certain important subset they work. Jazayerli points out, “I also did a simple study when I wrote about Stephen Strasburg for Grantland back in 2012, looking at the attrition rate of 22-year-old starting pitchers in the majors five years later. Prior to about 1998, roughly 50% of them were still starting regularly five years later; since 1998, that rate has jumped to two-thirds. Maybe it’s a coincidence; maybe it’s not.”

At the same time, we’re seeing a major increase in severe injuries to youth pitchers. Many of the Tommy John surgeries that the top orthopedists do will be on high school pitchers or younger. With the increase in revisions (second or third Tommy John surgeries), the decrease in the incidental age is going to increase the number of revisions we see if the pitcher continues to overuse or overstress his arm.

SI’s Joe Sheehan also believes that we are seeing some effects. “I think we’ve reduced injuries or ineffectiveness due specifically to short-term overuse. Pitchers definitely used to get broken by their managers, and that just doesn’t happen any longer.” Given the lack of 120-plus pitch starts, this is reasonable, which means we’re likely seeing more high-effort trauma. 

The next step is a more direct measure of fatigue. “There’s no such thing as a fatigue-o-meter,” said Fleisig with a laugh, “but if there was one, every team better have one.” There are possibilities on the horizon for such a device. Right now, there are available proxies like heart rate variability and direct measures like the use of portable ultrasounds that could check the integrity of muscles and ligaments very quickly. While it’s unlikely a team would do this between innings, doing it between starts would be a very low-cost solution.

There is also the new baseball tracking system that is expected to come into play this year. While the system is still being developed, it is often referred to as “OMGFX” given all of its information. One possibility is that it will be able to give us in-game, real-time measures of fatigue and pitching mechanics. If so, baseball will have a powerful tool, though one that would be impossible to get out to even minor league stadiums. 

What this comes down to is a failure of imagination and execution. Pitching coaches are working from what they did “back in the day” and seldom the best research. They’re certainly not conducting any research or being given the proper support from their organization. This is a system failure, but one that could be easily corrected given the will of the organization, some of which have made strides.

Angel Borrelli, a top kinesiologist who works with and analyzes MLB pitchers, says it best. “Nothing could be more impersonal than dealing with pitch counts (a number) when not firstly dealing with the pitcher (a human and not a machine).” The system is failing pitchers by not treating them as individuals, and that would be easy to change.

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5 Reasons Washington Nationals Will Continue Comeback and Make Playoffs

The Washington Nationals are surging and will enter September in contention for a playoff spot. Entering the final day of August, the Nationals are 16-10 in the month, which has given them a reason to play meaningful baseball in September.

The pieces of the puzzle have been coming together for Washington. Perhaps they were not able to handle the early season hype that surrounded the team, but, as for now, they have a chance for redemption.

Going forward however, it is imperative that they have some of their most important pieces go far and beyond what they are capable of. If they do this, and get a little bit of luck, the Nats might once again be playing in October.

Let’s take a look at the keys to the Nationals’ success going forward.

Begin Slideshow


Stephen Strasburg Has Finally Earned Title of Washington Nationals’ "Ace"

The title of “ace” of a team’s pitching staff is often bestowed upon a pitcher as if it were a nickname. It is prematurely applied to any and all types of pitcher, like a “Player of The Week” award. 

But ace is not a label to be categorized with lesser distinctions, such as: 

  • Opening Day starter: Strasburg has held this distinction for the past two seasons for the Nats, despite never completing a full season in his four-year career. Being named Opening Day starter typically carries more weight than it should. As if Strasburg’s case were not proof enough, former Nationals’ starter John Lannan took the mound on Opening Day in consecutive seasons for Washington, while Jordan Zimmermann has yet to do so. 
  • All-Star: Selecting players for the Mid-Summer Classic is an inexact science at best. Strasburg was selected as an All-Star last year, when he was 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA at the All-Star break, according to James Wagner of The Washington Post. But he was named one of this season’s biggest All-Star snubs by Matthew Pouilot of Hardball Talk at NBCSports.com when he was not selected to the 2013 NL All-Star squad after compiling a 4-6 record and a 2.24 ERA. 
  • “The best pitching prospect in generations”: Strasburg was so labeled by Albert Chen of Sports Illustrated on June 21, 2010, shortly after his MLB debut. This is an important distinction in a sport that places such a high value on prospects and and the science of scouting. But it is subjective, nonetheless. 

No, Ace is a title, in the same way that “Sir”, “Chief” and “Captain” are titles. 

Like those monikers, this title is to be worn like a brand, an indelible mark that is burned into a pitcher’s reputation throughout his career. It remains with him into his retirement, and well after his death. 

Why does this designation stand the test of baseball time? 

Because it is so difficult to earn. 

Until 2013, Strasburg had not done nearly enough to earn the title of ace. But things changed this season. 

First, there was the game on May 16 against the San Diego Padres in  Strasburg’s hometown. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman committed a throwing error during the fifth inning, something he had done with disturbing regularity in Strasburg’s starts.

In his previous start, another Zimmerman error was just one thing that rattled Strasburg. He lasted only 5.0 innings as he took the decision on May 11 in the Nats’ lost 8-2 to the Chicago Cubs. Strasburg surrendered five hits and four runs, but no earned runs. 

After the game, catcher Wilson Ramos talked to Bill  Ladson of MLB.com about Strasburg’s composure, or lack thereof: 

I tried to tell him the other day after the situations like that, you have to keep your head up. You can never put your head down. Every time you put your head down, he lost the focus. You need to fight all game. He has to fight 27 outs. You have to fight all game. 

But things turned out differently in San Diego, and it all started with Strasburg. After another Zimmerman error, Strasburg motioned to his third baseman and mouthed “I got you”. He stayed true to his word, getting out of the jam and lasting 8.0 innings, a career high at the time. Strasburg surrendered only three hits and one earned run as the Nats won 6-2. 

The symbolic act of Strasburg picking up one of his teammates was not lost on catcher Kurt Suzuki, as he told Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post

I was going to go out there. I was thinking about going out there and talking to him. Once he got the ball back, he looked at Zim and said, ‘I got you.’ Once he did that, I turned around and went back to home plate. Because I knew he was going to do it. 

Then, on August 11,Strasburg threw his first career complete game, while also hurling his first career shutout. He needed only 99 pitches to complete a sweep, surrendering four hit and striking out 10 in the process. 

Strasburg has now become a top of the rotation starter that can realistically retire all 27 batters he faces in any given game. That is expected of an ace.  

But the ace is entrusted with another responsibility, one so great that many do not have the intestinal fortitude to carry it out. 

The ace must act as the protector. The enforcer. The sharpened end of the stick. 

Former Brooklyn Dodgers ace Don Drysdale did an excellent job of outlining this particular part of the ace’s job description. In a quote archived by The Baseball AlmanacDrysdale said that “if they knocked two of your guys down, I’d get four. You have to protect your hitters.”

 

The Nationals needed Strasburg to do just that over the weekend. Bryce Harper had been hit three times by Braves pitchers in recent games.

Harper was first hit on August 6 by Julio Teheran, in his next at-bat after admiring a home run in the third inning. Teheran’s actions were peculiar, considering his teammate Justin Upton was not plunked by a Nats pitcher after admiring his go-ahead home run on August 5, just the night before.

Harper barked at Teheran  as he walked to first base, and the benches cleared. But no punches were thrown – and no Braves’ hitters were thrown at. Gio Gonzalez failed to exact revenge in that very same game, and Jordan Zimmermann failed to do so the following day.

Harper disagreed with the lack of retribution during an interview with Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com the day after the game, saying “I think if I’m the pitcher on my team, I think I’m gonna drill somebody,”

Then, on August 16, Harper was hit twice in the same game by two different Braves pitchers. Again, no retribution. 

Enter Stephen Strasburg. 

In the top of the first inning on August 17, Strasburg was staked to a 2-0 lead. He quickly gave one run back in the bottom of the frame on a lead-off homer to Jason Heyward.

Next up was none other than Justin Upton. The same Justin Upton who admired his home run almost two weeks earlier, and hit the game-winning home run the night before. He also happens to be one of the Braves’ best players.

Three good reasons to hit him. 

Strasburg needed only one reason to hit Upton: it was his duty as the team’s ace. 

Strasburg drilled Upton in his back. Upton took his base without much fanfare, while seemingly surprised that the Nationals would actually respond to three unabated attacks on their best player. 

After needing a double play to get out of the inning in which he surrendered one run, Strasburg still received an overwhelmingly positive greeting as he entered the dugout, with every single Nationals player and coach congratulating him for his reprisal. 

But Strasburg was not done. 

In the very next inning, Strasburg threw behind Andrelton Simmons on consecutive pitches. Although a warning had been issued to both dugouts after

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Stephen Strasburg Ejected After Throwing 3 Straight Wild Pitches vs. Braves

Washington Nationals star pitcher Stephen Strasburg threw three consecutive wild pitches on Saturday in an at-bat against Atlanta Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons in the second inning.

Not only did Strasburg get ejected for evidently trying to hit Simmons, but he also allowed Braves center fielder Jordan Schafer to score, which cut the Nationals’ lead to 4-2 at Turner Field.

Home plate umpire Marvin Hudson had seen enough, deciding to toss Strasburg after the final pitch whizzed behind Simmons and into the backstop. Video of Strasburg’s last pitch, and Washington manager Davey Johnson’s brief visit with Hudson on the diamond, can be viewed at MLB.com.

As CSN Washington points out, the fact that Strasburg was forced to leave also meant Johnson’s night was over:

The outlet’s Nationals beat reporter Mark Zuckerman believes both Strasburg and Johnson are likely to be dealt suspensions by Major League Baseball:

Mark Bowman of MLB.com highlighted just how off-target Strasburg’s third successive wild pitch was:

This unfortunate incident came to fruition due to recently increased tensions between the two clubs.

Johnson sat out his other prodigy Bryce Harper on Saturday after the 20-year-old was drilled by a Luis Avilan fastball in the left triceps in the previous game. Amanda Comak of The Washington Times reports that Harper tried to get loose in the batting cage before the game, but was unable to.

It marked the third time Harper had been plucked by the Braves in four games, and as Comak documented, Johnson hinted before Saturday’s game that a retaliation may be coming.

“I never order a pitcher to go after anybody…But we have a way of protecting our own,” said Johnson.

Strasburg may have been sticking up for his teammate by taking aim at Simmons in direct response to Atlanta’s pitchers beaning Harper.

The Nationals had been 3-11 against the Braves in 14 contests this season entering Saturday’s game, and were trailing them by 15.5 games in the National League East division.

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Explaining Why Stephen Strasburg Will Never Be MLB’s Next Justin Verlander

Waiting patiently for the day when Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg becomes the next Justin Verlander? You know, as in a guy who’s both extremely talented and extremely durable?

Here’s a hint: Don’t do that. 

Strasburg is never going to be Verlander’s equal, nor is he going to be up there with any of Major League Baseball’s great aces who are also tireless workhorses. That’s not the life Strasburg has been cut out for.

Before you object, let’s be clear about one thing: We’re not talking about a question of talent. If talent is a matter of stuff and command, then Strasburg has those two areas pretty well covered.

Strasburg’s stuff, obviously, is tremendous. Drool-inducing, really. He’s got the kind of stuff that we all gave our customized video-game pitchers when we were kids (and/or still do as adults).

Per FanGraphs, Strasburg has the highest average-fastball velocity of any starter in the majors (minimum 160 innings pitched) since the start of 2012. It’s a true plus offering, and his curveball and changeup are about as nasty as any in the game.

Strasburg is still working on his sinker, but it bodes well that it has by far the best ground-ball rate of any of his pitches this season, according to BrooksBaseball.net. If he continues to master that pitch, the task of beating him will be all the more difficult.

As for Strasburg’s command, Baseball Info Solutions (via FanGraphs) says he’s thrown 45.4 percent of his pitches in the strike zone since the start of 2012. That puts him right there with Matt Cain, as well as ahead of guys like Felix Hernandez and, yes, even Mr. Verlander.

So talent isn’t an issue. Strasburg may have more of that than any other starting pitcher in the majors, and I’ll wager that he has more of it now at the age of 24 than Verlander did when he was the same age in 2007.

But Verlander didn’t become Verlander just on his ability to throw a baseball. The Detroit Tigers‘ right-hander’s freakish durability is as big a part of his legend as his freakish stuff, and similar freakish durability should not be expected from Strasburg for a couple of reasons.

One is that it is very unlikely to be allowed. Another is that Strasburg’s body very likely won’t allow it.

Strasburg becoming an elite workhorse means finding a way past the paranoia of his employers. The Nationals have been extremely cautious with his right arm, particularly last year when he was tackling his first full major-league season less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery.

To give you an idea of how small Strasburg’s workload last season was, here’s how it compares to Verlander’s age-23 season in 2006.

Player Starts Innings Pit/GS 120+ Pitch Starts
Verlander  30  186.0  99  2
Strasburg  28  159.1  93  0

In his age-23 season, Verlander logged more starts, more innings, more pitches per game started and more 120-pitch starts than Strasburg did in his age-23 season last year. Overall, Verlander threw exactly 361 more pitches in 2006 than Strasburg did in 2012.

Granted, Verlander wasn’t coming off Tommy John surgery. But he still compiled all that work despite dealing with two separate episodes of arm fatigue late in the year (see Baseball Prospectus). He was not a picture of health in 2006, yet he still handled a sizable workload.

To boot, not pictured in the above table is the work Verlander did in the postseason in 2006. Factor that in, and you’ve got another four starts, 21.2 innings and 406 pitches.

So Verlander’s leash was pretty loose in 2006, and the Tigers loosened it even more in his age-24 season in 2007. He crossed the 110-pitch plateau nine times in 32 starts and averaged 105 pitches per start. 

The Nationals have loosened Strasburg’s leash in 2013, but only to a degree. He’s averaging 102 pitches per start through his first seven outings, but 110 pitches would still appear to be his limit. He’s topped out at 114 pitches this season, and still has yet to throw over 120 pitches in a major-league start.

That’s something that Verlander now does regularly, and it’s hard to imagine Strasburg ever getting to that point because of how the Nationals treat him. They have yet to show a willingness to take his training wheels completely off, and they could continue to do so as long as he’s under their control.

That would be through the 2016 season, which will be Strasburg’s age-27 campaign. If the Nationals are still afraid to let him go too far beyond 100 pitches and, by extension, 200 innings per season by then, his niche is going to be carved out.

Even if Strasburg were to escape the Nationals through free agency, he’d still be in a situation where his employers would want to treat him with extreme care. There’d be a lot of money invested in him, and the people investing that money would know that it would be at risk if Strasburg were to be asked to suddenly handle a bigger workload after so many years on a short leash. 

That would be asking for an injury to happen even if Strasburg’s medical record was clean, which, of course, it’s not. As it is, the fear of him suffering another major injury doesn’t just stem from his medical record. His mechanics are also a red flag.

When Strasburg was first coming up, there was some buzz about his mechanics potentially being dangerous. His Baseball America scouting report, for example, noted that there were some within the Nationals organization who were concerned Strasburg‘s mechanics could eventually result in him breaking down.

Several years later, these concerns have some legs. In addition to Tommy John surgery in 2010, Strasburg has also battled shoulder inflammation, bicep tightness and forearm tightness since he arrived in the majors (see Baseball Prospectus). As explosive as his right arm is, it’s fragile.

Last year, Lindsay Berra of ESPN The Magazine sought to find out exactly what it is about Strasburg’s mechanics that makes them so dangerous, and an independent coach and former Pittsburgh Pirates scout named Paul Reddick had an answer.

Reddick provided a step-by-step breakdown of Strasburg’s mechanics in comparison to the practically flawless mechanics of Greg Maddux. The gist was that Strasburg’s pitching delivery results in his upper half being out of sync with his lower half, putting extra pressure on his shoulder and arm.

Strasburg is also an “inverted W” guy, which Berra explained at length in a separate article focused on Tommy John surgery:

…if a pitcher’s elbows come higher than his wrists and shoulders, with the ball pointing down, he’s demonstrating an “inverted W” — a sign that his sequence is off and he’s fighting his own body. Such poor timing leads to arm lag, evident when the throwing elbow trails the shoulder once the shoulders square to home plate. Strasburg exhibits both problems, forcing him and others like him to rely more on the arm’s relatively small muscles instead of the more massive ones in the legs and torso. 

The ideal pitching delivery, according to Berra, looks like this: “When the [front] foot makes contact with the mound, the pitching arm must be up and ready to throw. A righthanded pitcher should be showing the baseball to the shortstop, a lefty to the second baseman.”

Case in point, here’s Verlander:

Verlander’s front foot is about a fraction of a second away from hitting the ground in this shot, but it’s close enough for our purposes. What you can see here is that his arms are not making an inverted W. His right arm is ready to throw, with the ball clearly visible to the shortstop.

Now here’s Strasburg:

Strasburg’s lead foot is a fraction of a second from hitting the ground in this shot, too, and you can see that his right arm is not up and ready to fire like Verlander’s. It’s still on the way up, and really isn’t ready to fire until Strasburg is already striding towards home plate.

Like so:

By contrast, here’s where Verlander’s arm is when he starts his stride towards home plate:

The difference is subtle, but what you’re seeing in this image is Verlander’s arm coming forward as he strides towards the plate. He’s already in the process of throwing, whereas the above image of Strasburg shows that he’s still in the process of preparing to throw. He’s basically still locking and loading at a point where Verlander is firing.

That’s the “arm lag” Berra was talking about. Because Strasburg’s arm is not in sequence with his lower half, his arm has to generate more torque than it should have to.

Point being: Strasburg’s arm was surgically repaired in 2010, but it’s not going to be totally safe until he alters his mechanics. Since that hasn’t happened yet, it would appear he and the Nationals won’t even consider a mechanical overhaul until they get a darn good excuse.

Such as another major injury. And if one should occur, Strasburg’s going to be damaged goods for good.

Even if Strasburg is able to avoid major injuries, his mechanics are still very likely to keep the minor injuries (stiffness, inflammation, etc.) coming, and that’s only going to keep feeding the notion that Strasburg is best kept on strict pitch-count and innings limitations.

Verlander achieved his status as an indestructible workhorse by proving it. The same goes for aces like Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, James Shields and other perennial 230-inning guys. These pitchers eventually showed that 200 innings was a formality for them, not a goal.

As much as Strasburg would presumably like to follow in their footsteps, his overprotective employers, injury history and mechanics are standing in the way.

We’ll just have to be content with him being a super-talented pitcher who’s one of the lesser workhorses in the game.

Hey, as long as the “super-talented” part holds up, I’m cool with that arrangement.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

 

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