Kuzul

Rick Porcello has made two starts since being demoted to Triple-A with mixed results (he had a 6.14 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over 70.1 innings prior to the demotion):

Start No. 1 (June 24): 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K, W
Start No. 2 (June 29): 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 3 BB, 3 K

One of the main problems with Porcello is his inability to strike batters out, something that has been carried with him at Triple-A. That’s not something that is very encouraging.

Even if you were to have a beneficial BABIP, the more balls that are put in play, the more hits that are going to be allowed. Just look at this example:

100 IP
90 K (8.1 K/9)
10 HR (0.9 HR/9)
92 Hits

That would result in a BABIP of .299.

Now, let’s look at the same numbers, but reduce the K/9 to the 4.2 that Porcello had posted prior to being demoted:

100 IP
47 K (4.2 K/9)
10 HR (0.9 HR/9)

If he were to duplicate the .299 BABIP, he would allow 110 hits.

For him to duplicate the 92 hits, his BABIP would be an extremely lucky .259.

That tells you how big of an impact strikeouts can have on a pitcher’s performance and why it is something significant to watch with Porcello. If he can begin striking out more batters, even if it were just to the 6.0 K/9 range, it would make a humongous difference. The fact that at Triple-A he has not shown any improvement is very discouraging.

We’ll continue to track his progress, but if he can’t get strikeouts at Triple-A, chances are he’s not going to have much value for the rest of 2010.

What are your thoughts on Porcello? Is there any chance he becomes usable again in 2010, or is he better left for 2011?

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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Rick Porcello got kicked around again on Wednesday night. This has become a common occurrence throughout the 2010 season. Starting against the Chicago White Sox, he only lasted 3.1 innings, allowing eight runs. 

Porcello’s season ERA rose from 5.25 to 6.09.

Just like in most of his outings this season, he looked extremely hittable. I know that is a subjective evaluation, but this is an attribute that he did not seem to possess in 2009.

Consider a look at his statistics. Going into tonight’s start, opponents were hitting a whopping .315 against Porcello this year, up from .267 last year. WHIP is also up from 1.34 to 1.65, which means he is allowing a ton of base runners, and voila, runs start scoring.

The Tigers have been making a flurry of roster moves the past couple weeks. One of those moves was to send SP Max Scherzer on a tune-up assignment to Toledo to find his form. 

Upon his return Scherzer lit up the Oakland A’s, striking out 14 in 5.2 innings. He did get kicked around by Kansas City in his last start, however, so the jury is still out as to whether or not this has been a completely successful move.

After tonight’s awful performance, though, one would have to imagine the Tigers are considering sending Porcello on a vacation to Toledo for a couple weeks to have him work on something, anything. 

His short term replacement is already on the roster. Enter Eddie Bonine, who, once again, was called upon to mop up a disastrous outing by a starting pitcher. 

Bonine pitched four innings and was lights out for three of them. He was charged with three runs in his fourth frame, but two of those were inherited runners that Fu-Te Ni allowed to score in a rubbish heap performance. 

Overall in the 2010 season Bonine has been great. I pointed this out a couple weeks ago, and my point is still valid. Bonine’s ERA rises to a mere 2.30 after tonight, in 31.1 innings of work.

There are many virtues to moving Bonine to the rotation and sending Porcello down temporarily. 

No one expects Porcello’s struggles to be anything but temporary. It’s called a sophomore slump, and they are real. The scouting reports have gotten around on Porcello and guys know how to hit him now. It’s time to make adjustments, and a trip to Toledo expedites this process.

Moving Bonine to the rotation rewards a guy who has pitched outstanding baseball all season. He has only been in the bullpen because of a lack of rotation space. Time to make some room.

Finally, moving Bonine to the rotation opens the need for a relief pitcher. There are a few relievers having great seasons for the Mud Hens. This would be a chance to call one of them up for a couple weeks to see what they have.

Perhaps Daniel Schlereth or Jay Sborz? I think yes.

In the end what it comes down to is this: You can’t let Porcello continue to get roasted by major league hitters all season. It could be an irrevocable blow to his composure and confidence. 

Everyone seems to forget that he is only 21 years old. Bumps in the carpet like this have to be anticipated and ironed out. 

Let’s get the iron out in Toledo for two weeks.

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The 2007 first year player draft was very pitcher-heavy, but with the exception of the No. 1 overall selection, some of the biggest names to come out of it were actually position players.

A total of 18 pitchers were called in the first round alone, led by Vanderbilt graduate David Price, but there was good overall depth in the draft, especially through the first three rounds.

How many GMs do you think are out there right now still kicking themselves that Jason Heyward fell to No. 14? How about the fact that one of the brightest pitching prospects in the game, Jordan Zimmerman, didn’t go at all in the first round? Did Florida hit the jackpot in Mike Stanton with the 76th overall selection?

With just one week to go until the 2010 draft, Bleacher Report looks back to see who came out on top this time three years ago.

Major League success and experience weighs the most here, with Minor League contributions and potential assessed from AAA down to single-A.

As always, feel free to let me know your thoughts.

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Meatloaf said it best: “two out of three ain’t bad.”

Well, in the case of Rick Porcello and the Detroit Tigers, one out of three isn’t too shabby either.

Porcello pitched steadily Sunday, and helped his club avoid being swept by the defending National League West champion Los Angeles Dodgers with its 6-2 win.

The Tigers’ sophomore hurler threw 101 pitches (64 strikes) in six innings and recorded two strikeouts.

He scattered nine hits, but the Dodgers’ offense was unable to capitalize with runners on.

The second-year star in the making earned his fourth win of the season, and exhibited that the front-end of Detroit’s rotation is becoming solid and reliable.

The bats of Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera are alive and well.

And that’s a great sign for the Motor City faithful. 

Cabrera homered in the first inning, his 10th of the year, which plated Ordonez.

Ordonez followed suit in the eighth inning with a solo-shot, his sixth home run thus far.

The Tigers are 25-19, just one game back of Minnesota in the A.L. Central.

If there were a checklist for success that one would draft to measure the Tigers’ worth, it might look something like this.

1. Solid pitching. Of course, that’s were any club’s momentum stems from. A team is only as consistent as its guys on the mound.

Justin Verlander and Porcello have the potential to be one of the American League’s top one-two tandems. That will be a load that Porcello will shoulder, but the possibility is there.

Porcello lacks the blazing arsenal possessed by Verlander, and he has lost two of his last three decisions.

But the focus should be on what he’s capable of. In 2009, he was considered one of the American League’s elite rookie pitchers.

Verlander, who can keep his velocity and control into late innings, has dazzled in the first quarter of the 2010 campaign.

A solid bullpen is also an advantage. And the Tigers have one. Although it’s overworked at times, Phil Coke, Eddie Bonine, and Ryan Perry get the job done.

And there’s always Papa Grande, Detroit’s exuberant closer Jose Valverde, who has 11 saves.

The cream always rises to the top, and that’s what he’s done—in impressive fashion at that.

Valverde’s celebrations are a reminder that the era of passionate players is far from dead.

2. Lead-off men. Austin Jackson and Johnny Damon know how to get on base. Although Jackson has hit in the No. 1 spot for the majority of the season, Damon is another viable option.

In his career, he has a .289 batting average when leading off.

He quickly became a fan favorite with his walk-off dinger in Detroit’s 3-2 triumph over the Angels on May 1. He proved that there is a little life left in that aging arm of his with his bullet of a throw that kept Hideki Matsui honest the same day.

3. The heart of the order. Well, that one is easy. Cabrera, Ordonez and Brennan Boesch are a pitcher’s nightmare. Boesch is one of Jim Leyland’s up-and-comers, and has displayed his big-league worthiness since coming up April 23.

4. Young talent. Does the name Jackson ring a bell? He’s easily the front runner for AL Rookie of the Year. He set a Tiger record for most hits in first 100 at-bats with 37. His pace has shown no signs of slowing down.

Room for improvement: This one is like beating a dead horse.

Catchers Alex Avila and Gerald Laird need to show resolve at the plate. The same can be said for third baseman Brandon Inge, who has just 10 hits this month, and five since May 10.

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Whenever I look at how well a baseball team might fare in the regular season and then play-offs, this is usually my thought process:

#1) Who is your ace? Must have that stud guy who the team can rally around.

#2) Who is the closer? If you can’t finish games, don’t tell me about how well you start.

#3) Do you have a big bopper? Need that guy that the other teams have to work around.

#4) Who are the second and third starters? Need some pitchers to keep things going after the ace.

#5) Got any table setters? Need some players on base for the big guy.

#6) What about bullpen depth? Can’t be losing the game in the seventh inning.

#7) Any protection for the clean up hitter? Got to make them pay if they don’t want to pitch to your big guy.

#8) What about the defense up the middle? Can they make the plays they need to make?

Somewhere after these 8 questions I start thinking about the bottom of the line-up or the 4th and 5th starters. We might argue about the order a bit, but you have answers for those first 8 questions, the rest will play out just fine.

At the start of the year, the Tigers thought they had a lot of the answers. The biggest doubt concerned the matter of setting the table rather than questioning the defense up the middle with a couple of rookies in key positions.

So now it’s time to invoke the “Sparky rule” and see what we have after 40 games. (okay, make that 43 games, I was a little slow out of the box)

Their report card looks pretty good, almost made the Dean’s list:

4 A’s with Ace, Closer, Big Bopper and Bullpen Depth.

2 B’s for the Table Setters and Line-up Protection

1 C+ for Defense Up the Middle

1 F for No. 2 & No. 3 starters.

Yikes, where did that come from?

At the start of the year, we expected the second and third starters to be at least a C, if not a B. Maybe I can now raise them to a D because Porcello seems to be picking it up a little.

But then again, Scherzer is in the minors, so let’s keep it at an F. You have to have both spots filled.

Look, we can talk about trades for a good-hitting catcher or how inconsistent Bonderman and Willis are but truth be told, we can win without that changing.

What we can’t win without is better production out of the second and third starters.

The rest of the answers can have you playing pretty well, maybe even winning the division if Minnesota falters a little.

But you are going to need those pitchers to vie for a pennant or ring. Those two spots are too important to ignore.

A championship quality team wins about three-quarters with the ace starting, and about half of the games out of the fourth and fifth and spot starters.

The Tigers are fine with that, it’s those 60 or so starts between the ace and the back end.

If we figure Verlander for 34 starts at a 750 clip that’s 25.5 wins. Now add in around 62 starts for the fourth and fifth and spot starters at 500 and it adds up to 56.5 wins.

If you win two-thirds of those last 66 starts you reach 100 wins: champagne and confetti time.

Win half of them and you have 88 wins. Close but no cigar.

But that’s just the math, the real issues go deeper than that.

First, your second and third guys need to be inning eaters. They don’t have to be hogs, but they can’t leave a lot of left overs for the bullpen.

When they consistently do not make it into the seventh inning, it puts a huge strain on the bullpen that over the long haul, and it will bring a pitching staff down.

You know you will need the bullpen when Bonderman and Willis start, any time they get into the sixth inning it’s a good start out of them.

The problem is, you can’t bring in the pitcher you want if he had to throw the night before. So now your chances to win that game are way down.

You can get away with that once in a while, which is why you have a dozen or so pitchers on the staff.

But you get in a habit of it and you’re getting too many innings pitched out of your set-up guys and depending on the 10th, 11th, and 12th pitchers too much. Next thing you know your bringing in Valverde in the eighth inning.

The Tigers are pretty deep in the bullpen with some good spares in the minors, so maybe they can struggle through that with some well-placed roster maneuvering.

Where they are going to need Porcello and Scherzer to fill their role is with momentum.

Teams need a handful of those five- to 10-game winning streaks during the season and those come from your No. 2 and No. 3 starter.

When they are winning by the time they pile on a win by the ace, you’re halfway there. Get a little lucky at four and five and you have a chance with the one, two, and three pitchers coming back up to have a nice little streak.

At the same token, if the two and three split their starts, even with a win out of the ace you have to get a win out of four or five to go above 500, and remember, you have to do that with your 10-12 pitchers filling key relief roles.

So is there any chance this turns around?

There are encouraging signs, like the seven shutout innings by Porcello against the Yankees. But then again, that was in between two pretty bad starts.

We might have to accept that Porcello will be around .500 this year, maybe a little better by the end of the year.

We really should have expected that. This is his second year and most pitchers go through that.

Hitters have seen and adjusted to him, and until he counters he will have some struggles. This is normal. Even Verlander went through it.

He’ll bounce back and be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter down the line, just maybe not this year.

The bigger concern is of course Scherzer; the best news we have heard from him lately was a minor league start. We had him penciled him in as a two or three at the start of the year but it was with our fingers crossed.

He has great stuff and there were some great numbers in Arizona, like his 214 hits given up with 240 strike outs in 226 innings. Those kind of numbers are All-Star status.

The problem is he had a career record of 9-5 and only two years experience. Maybe we should have expected this, better figure him for another year, too.

So what do you do?

Chance are the Porcello and Scherzer combination look like a .500 combination all year and that leaves the Tigers out of the play-offs. Just short again.

Dombroski has to make a move and not just any move. The Tigers need a frontline starter, or this season will be lost.

You can add all the good hitting catchers or even replace Inge, it won’t matter if they don’t get some help for the rotation and not just another .500 guy and the closer to an Ace the better. We have to make up for the No. 3 being only 500.

They say Oswalt might be available and yes, that contract is pretty scary and his numbers say he is in decline a little, though he has some nice numbers this year, like a 2.66 ERA and 49/60 Hits/SO ratio.

32 years old is a little iffy but many pitchers like him have had a lot of great seasons after 32. He’s been effective in the playoffs (4-0 3.66), and he’s a solid locker room guy.

We have to assume the Astros would want young players, and they should be interested in young relievers especially. Their top six bullpen guys based on appearances are over 30 and young relievers are right up the Tigers alley.

I would seriously consider any trade built around Zumaya or even Perry. If it took Zumaya or Perry plus Boesch with a minor league pitcher, thrown in as long as it’s not Turner, I’m going to make that deal.

Of course, it’s not my money, and Oswalt gets a lot of money. He might be worth it but can the Tigers afford him?

That’s a fair question, Illitch has spent plenty of money already and upped the budget for top talent before, but there is a line somewhere.

The Tigers have some money coming off the books for next year, so Dombroski can probably fit the money in next year, but that’s next year. Still leaves some 10 million for this year that the Tigers would have to take on.

That’s quite a question for Dombroski or really Illitch to answer.

Do they spend $10 million to put them squarely in contention for the World Series? If you have Verlander, Oswalt, and whomever is pitching better out of Porcello and Scherzer as your rotation going into a playoff series you got a real chance against anyone.

Maybe the variables change like Cliff Lee instead of Oswalt, but the question is clear.

Two plus three plus $10 million could equal World Series rings, but take out the cash and it probably means another less than satisfying season.

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Rick Porcello tossed seven scoreless innings and out-pitched Javier Vasquez to lead Detroit to a 2-0 win over New York Wednesday afternoon at Comerica Park. It was the first game of a doubleheader.

Detroit has won two straight against New York after losing seven of their last eight games against the Yankees. New York was shutout for the first time since a 6-0 loss at Toronto on Sept. 4, 2009.
 
Porcello (3-3), who entered the game with a 7.50 ERA, limited the Yankees to four hits over seven innings. He also struck out two and walked three. In his only start against New York last season, he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings.

Jose Valverde pitched a scoreless ninth for his 10th save.

Despite taking the loss, Vasquez (1-4) had his most effective start of the season.

Vasquez entered the game with a 9.78 ERA, yet held Detroit scoreless over the first five innings. By the time he left the game after the seventh inning, he had allowed two runs on five hits with seven strikeouts and two walks.
 
The Yankees only two scoring chances came in the second and fourth innings. In the second, Porcello escaped a two out, bases loaded jam. He also pitched around Jorge Posada’s one out double in the fourth.

Detroit broke a scoreless tie in the bottom of the sixth.

With runners at first and third and no outs, Magglio Ordonez’s RBI fielder’s choice scored the first run. After Miguel Cabrera singled, Brennan Boesch delivered a run-scoring single for his fourth RBI of the series to give Detroit a 2-0 lead.

New York will look to end their three-game losing streak in the nightcap of the doubleheader. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET.

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