Tag: Prospect Pipeline

MLB Farm System Rankings: Pre-Spring Training Edition

Spring training is set to begin next week when pitchers and catchers report to camp, meaning Major League Baseball’s long and at times insane offseason is coming to an end.

So far, much of the focus has been the movement among big leaguers due to all the free-agent signings and teams trading their top chips to new squads. However, this offseason also has featured plenty of action on the minor league front. And with spring training just around the corner, it’s time for Prospect Pipeline to officially rank the farm systems of all 30 clubs.

As always, our rankings are based on two criteria: impact potential and depth. Since a team may have more of one than the other, it’s necessary to have more than a couple of players who project as quality big leaguers in order to have a good farm system.

One last thing to remember: Any player who is no longer prospect eligible—that is, anyone who has exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues—is not considered in their team’s ranking.

That means no Mookie Betts for the Boston Red Sox, Javier Baez for the Chicago Cubs or Taijuan Walker for the Seattle Mariners, among others who exhausted their rookie status late in the 2014 campaign.

Here’s how all 30 farm systems stack up heading into spring training.

 

Want to talk prospects? Hit me up on Twitter: @GoldenSombrero

2015 Top 10 Prospects Index | 2014 Pre-Spring Training Edition Farm System Rankings

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Predicting Non-Roster Invitees Who Will Have Huge Spring Trainings

With less than two weeks until the start of spring training, most organizations have already extended invitations to their non-40-man-roster players.

Besides providing an opportunity for players to fine-tune their skills against more advanced competition, spring training offers prospects the chance to make a strong impression in front of the entire organization.

This year’s crop of non-roster invitees includes many of baseball’s top prospects, including Byron Buxton, Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa. However, they aren’t the only prospects expected to open eyes this year in major league camp.

Here’s a look at seven non-roster prospects who will have huge springs.

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Previewing the Hottest Questions of 2015 Spring Training, 2 Weeks out

Spring training is just around the corner, with pitchers and catchers set to report to camp sometime between Feb. 19 and 23, depending on the team, and position players arriving the following week.

But even though the start of the season draws closer every day, there are still several unanswered questions that, once answered, are sure to have a major impact on the 2015 season.

 

Who will sign Yoan Moncada?

The sweepstakes for Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada intensified this week after the 19-year-old was cleared to negotiate and sign with any big league club.

When he signs, Moncada is expected to receive roughly $40 million, a would-be record under the international bonus pool system. His new team will face a 100 percent tax on the pool overage, so basically an additional $40 million.

Earlier this week, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com highlighted the five teams he believes have the best chances of signing Moncada: the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres and Detroit Tigers. Of those teams, Sanchez views the Yankees as the favorites to land the Cuban prospect:

The Yanks have a long history in the international market and were the first team to blow past their international bonus pools by signing several top prospects on July 2. That number is now close to 30, but none would be bigger than Moncada. The Yankees were among the first teams to watch him in a private workout, and they have been considered the favorites for several months.

Meanwhile, Buster Olney of ESPN thinks it makes sense for the Dodgers to pursue Moncada, citing the team’s deep pockets as well as its current lack of a long-term second baseman. However, it might not be worth Moncada‘s final cost plus the international signing restrictions the team will face in the following two years, writes MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick.

Whether it’s the Yankees, Dodgers or another team that ultimately invests in Moncada’s future, it’s clear that there are plenty of teams that believe he’s worth it.

 

How will the Tigers replace Victor Martinez?

On Thursday, we learned Victor Martinez has a torn medial meniscus in his left knee and that he’s set to undergo surgery Tuesday.

Martinez finished second to Mike Trout for the American League MVP Award in 2014 after batting .335 with 32 home runs. The Tigers re-signed the 36-year-old designated hitter to a four-year, $68 million contract back in November.

He suffered the injury during a recent workout, and it’s his second major offseason knee injury in the last four years.

The injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Tigers, as there was already concern about whether Miguel Cabrera would be fully healthy for spring training due to a stress fracture in his left foot.

ESPN.com’s Christina Kahrl notes the Tigers offense could be in serious trouble if V-Mart misses significant time:

Baseball Prospectus projects Detroit to score more than 20 fewer runs than last year’s 757, while analyst Clay Davenport pegged them even more harshly, losing more than 50 runs—five wins in the standings if you work with that simple 10 runs equals a win formula. And that was before V-Mart got hurt.

The Tigers won’t have an exact timetable for Martinez’s return until he has surgery next week. The severity of the injury is likely to determine the length of his recovery, writes Jason Beck of MLB.com:

A clean-out typically requires four to six weeks of recovery. Because Martinez has had previous surgeries, including a repair of his meniscus in 2012 after he tore his anterior cruciate ligament, he could be more cautious, missing six to eight weeks. A reattachment, Dr. Khabie said, requires up to six months of recovery.

The early speculation is the Tigers will look for answers within their system, according to Beck. Minor leaguers Jordan Lennerton and Aaron Westlake appear to be the best options, and both players are now expected to receive extended playing time during spring training.

 

Who will sign James Shields?

Free agent James Shields has multiple offers on the table and is expected to sign before the end of the weekend, tweets Jon Morosi of Fox Sports (h/t MLB Trade Rumors). Beyond that, it’s mostly speculation concerning which teams are legitimately in play for the right-hander.

Jim Bowden of ESPN recently noted that Shields is highly unlikely to receive the five-year, $100 million contract he sought heading into the offseason, and certainly not a fifth year:

As a former general manager, I can tell you that when a player gets to the first week of February unsigned, there’s usually a good reason. If something were going to happen, it would have by then. Now Shields is looking at a four-year deal in the $70-$80 million range as the best possible result, and the price tag could be even lower than that. 

On Thursday, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported the San Diego Padres might be the front-runner to land Shields, “Who makes his home in the San Diego area and is himself said to prefer to play on the West Coast after spending the first part of his career in Tampa Bay and Kansas City.”

ESPN’s Buster Olney has also heard increased buzz about the possibility of Shields landing in San Diego:

That the Toronto Blue Jays are said to have some interest in the 33-year-old Shields is surprising to Heyman:

One of those teams is said to be the Blue Jays, who are said to be ‘kicking the tires’ on Shields in something of a surprise since their obvious financial restrictions have inhibited them from going hard after a closer, which would seem to be a need. The Blue Jays made their signing of star catcher Russell Martin for $82 million possible by backloading the contract.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are also “kicking the tires” on Shields, according to David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com, and the team could become even more interested should his price tag continue to fall.

Stay tuned, as it might not be long until we learn where Big Game James will pitch in 2015.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Ranking All 30 MLB Teams on Homegrown Talent

All 30 MLB teams emphasize building from within and cultivating their own homegrown talent. A lot of it has to do with payroll, as small-market teams are forced to get the most out of their controllable young assets, while big-market teams can afford to deal prospects and spend big in free agency

It’s not always related to a market issue, though. For example, the St. Louis Cardinals continue to have more homegrown big league talent than anyone despite a relatively large payroll. Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics have a somewhat small payroll to work with, but they’re also thin on homegrown players.

What follows is a look at all 30 MLB teams ranked from worst to first on homegrown talent as we get set the start of spring training.

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7 Prospects Who Will Improve the Most in 2015

Not every successful major league player is a former top prospect. Typically, it’s the high-profile, high-ceiling players who typically garner the most hype as they ascend the organizational ladder.

One of the more rewarding aspects of scouting is identifying young players who, despite flying under the radar or underperforming early in their careers, have considerable room for improvement and showcase the potential to be impact players in the major leagues.

With that being said, here’s a look at seven prospects who will improve the most in 2015.

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Introducing Lucas Giolito, the Pitching Phenom Making Strasburg Expendable

The signing of free agent Max Scherzer to a seven-year, $210 million contract improved the Washington Nationals’ starting rotation from arguably the best to undoubtedly the best in baseball.

The Nats will enter the 2015 season with three No. 1 starters in Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, with Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister and Tanner Roark “filling out” the staff. However, the Scherzer signing also led to speculation that the Nats now might be more inclined to trade from their pitching depth.

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports tweeted that Washington would be willing to deal either Zimmermann or Strasburg if they landed Scherzer, which makes sense, as Zimmermann is set to become a free agent after the 2015 season and likely to command a monster free-agent contract, while Strasburg is set to follow in his footsteps the following year.

But there’s one other major reason the Nationals seemingly are willing to consider dealing young talents such as Zimmermann and Strasburg: They have baseball’s top pitching prospect in 20-year-old right-hander Lucas Giolito.

Giolito was viewed as a candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2012 draft after the right-hander lit up radar guns with his fastball and dropped jaws with his curveball early in the spring for Harvard-Westlake High School (California).

Unfortunately, Giolito suffered a strained ligament in his right elbow roughly two months into the season and was shut down indefinitely. He avoided surgery, but the injury ultimately cost Giolito the remainder of his high school campaign and the chance to be the first prep right-hander drafted No. 1 overall.

Yet even though Giolito missed most of the spring, the Washington Nationals still selected the right-hander with the No. 16 overall selection in the 2012 draft and offered him a $2.925 million signing bonus.

Making his first professional start later that summer, Giolito made it just two innings in the game before his elbow flared up once again. This time, however, there would be no rest and rehab, as he was forced to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery.

After 10 months on the shelf, Giolito returned to the mound late in the 2013 season to post a 1.96 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 36.2 innings between the Gulf Coast and New York-Penn Leagues.

Suffice it to say, expectations were high for Giolito headed into 2014. Amazingly, the 20-year-old did not disappoint.

In his first full season back from surgery, not to mention his first full season as a professional, Giolito led the Low-A South Atlantic League (among pitchers with 90 innings) in ERA (2.20), strikeout percentage (28.5 percent) and opponents’ batting average (.196), per FanGraphs. The Nationals shut down the right-hander after 98 innings due to the organization’s protocol with young pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, according to Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post.

“Getting that first year out of the way, it was kind of a special situation for me,” Giolito said via Byron Kerr of MASNSports.com. “Because it was my first full year of pro ball and it was my first year back from Tommy John. Now I’m fully healthy and the surgery is well behind me. And I’m a little bit more experienced. I have been a pro for about three years now. I have a full year under my belt. I feel prepared for what’s next to come.”

When I saw Giolito make his second start of the 2014 season for Low-A Hagerstown, the 20-year-old fired five shutout innings against Low-A Lakewood, allowing one hit and one walk with six strikeouts.

He never threw more than 17 pitches in an inning and needed only 61 to complete the outing. The lone hit he surrendered was a two-out double to Samuel Hiciano in the third inning. Besides that, it was mostly strikeouts and weak contact (six groundouts, one flyout).

Giolito throws both a two- and four-seam fastball, with the latter consistently registering in the 94 to 96 mph range and the two-seamer at 91 to 93. Based on velocity alone, the pitch grades as a 65 or 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale), but everything about Giolito—his size, mechanics, arm action, prior workload—suggests that more velocity will come with development. It doesn’t take much to envision him sitting in the upper 90s by the time he reaches the major leagues.

In terms of usage, Giolito throws more four-seamers to left-handed batters, and he does a nice job changing hitters’ eye levels vertically so as to set up both secondary offerings. He’ll overthrow a few of them over the course of a game, ripping open with his glove side and falling off toward first base, but he’s cognizant of his mechanics and therefore is quick to make adjustments during subsequent pitches.

Giolito’s curveball is possibly the best I’ve personally scouted in the last four years—a future 75 offering. Working from the same over-the-top arm angle as his fastball, he throws the pitch in the 76 to 83 mph range with legitimate 12-to-6 break and sharp, downer bite.

He shows the ability to add and subtract with the pitch depending on the batter and count, consistently throwing it 78 to 81 mph for a called strike and then throwing a harder-biting version at 82 to 83 mph when vying for a whiff.

Meanwhile, the consistency and effectiveness of Giolito’s changeup was a pleasant surprise last season. The right-hander threw the pitch only three times when I saw him in April, but each time, he delivered it with a deceptive arm action and good speed differential in the low 80s. Giolito’s changeup grades as at least a future grade-60 offering, giving him three pitches which project as above average or better at maturity.

Giolito spoke in depth with Kerr about the pitch:

The changeup, when I was throwing it in high school, it wasn’t really a pitch I went to. I didn’t really have a good feel for it. After surgery, it kind of just came to me. I came back from my throwing program and my changeup was already in the workings of being there. I could throw it consistently for a strike.

Since then, I have been hammering it out. I really feel that it’s one of my stronger pitches. It’s a go to pitch in any count. I threw it 3-1 and 2-0 a lot last year. I feel that when you throw (it) in those kind of situations, you have a lot of success.

A lot can happen to any 20-year-old pitcher between A-ball and the time he reaches the major leagues. In Giolito’s case, the right-hander should have the chance to be a legitimate No. 1 starter at maturity so long as he stays healthy and continues down his current developmental path.

Both Giolito and the Nationals say that the right-hander is 100 percent healthy heading into 2015. However, that doesn’t mean he’ll be rushed up the ladder to the major leagues—not even if the team ultimately decides to trade Zimmermann or Strasburg.

“We understand the development process for someone coming off his surgery,” said Mark Scialabba, the Nationals’ director of player development, via Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post.

“We have to understand there are still goals to reach. We are going to proceed like with our previous players who have gone through this surgery, but also understand that he’s a special, unique talent.”

The Nationals’ pitching depth, even if the team makes a trade, will allow them to develop Giolito cautiously and thoroughly. Therefore, he likely will begin 2015 at High-A Potomac in the Carolina League, and if all goes as planned with his development, the right-hander should log some time at Double-A Harrisburg, too.

The organization might play it by ear after that, but all signs point to Giolito reaching the major leagues sometime during the 2016 season.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Ranking the Top Prospect for All 30 MLB Teams Entering 2015

Earlier today Prospect Pipeline completed our rankings of every organization’s top-10 prospects for the 2015 season. Now, it’s now time to go back and break down every club’s No. 1 prospect in the form of a team-by-team ranking.

In preparation for spring training as well as our official list of the top 100 prospects for the upcoming season, we’ve put together a tentative ranking of each team’s best prospect heading into 2015. Some of the scouting notes for each player have been derived from his original scouting report.

Here are our rankings of the top prospect for all 30 MLB teams entering 2015.

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Arizona Diamondbacks’ Top 10 Prospects for 2015

It was widely believed that top prospect Archie Bradley would spend most of the 2014 season in the major leagues, but an elbow injury in late April cut into his development and forced the organization to reassess his timeline. The right-hander looked better in this year’s Arizona Fall League, but he’ll still have some questions to answer in the upcoming season.

Braden Shipley, the No. 15 pick in last year’s draft, proved to be a first-round steal with a plus fastball-changeup combination, impressive athleticism and better than expected command. The team’s Compensation Round A pick from last year, right-hander Aaron Blair, has also been impressive this season, as he dominated at three levels, including Double-A.

The Diamondbacks landed another potential steal this year when Touki Toussaint fell in their lap at No. 16 overall, followed by ultra-athletic outfielder Marcus Wilson in compensation round B.

22-year-old Brandon Drury, who was acquired from the Braves in the Justin Upton deal, has a good eye at the plate, makes a lot of contact and has grown into some power. The same applies to 243-year-old third baseman Jake Lamb, who received a promotion to the major leagues in August after raking at Double-A Mobile.

The Diamondbacks also have a pair of promising, switch-hitting teenage middle infielders in Domingo Leyba (19), who came over from the Tigers this offseason in the Didi Gregorius trade, and shortstop Sergio Alcantara (18), who has an incredibly advanced approach for his age to go along with the defensive chops to stick at shortstop.

Here are the Arizona Diamondbacks‘ top 10 prospects for the 2015 season.

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MLB’s Top 10 Can’t-Miss Pitching Prospects for the 2015 Season

Major League Baseball is being dominated by pitching, and that’s only going to continue, judging by the flood of elite young arms who are on the verge of reaching The Show.

Like these 10, who represent the sport’s can’t-miss prospects for the 2015 season.

To avoid any confusion, that means these pitchers should be making a major impact in the upcoming year.

Thus, you won’t see elite arms like Lucas Giolito of the Washington Nationals, Tyler Glasnow of the Pittsburgh Pirates or Luis Severino of the New York Yankees, all of whom are a bit too far away to take the majors by storm this year. Same goes for 18-year-old Los Angeles Dodgers phenom Julio Urias.

And, as always, to qualify as prospect-eligible, these arms cannot have pitched more than 50 innings in the majors or spent more than 45 days on the active roster.

That eliminates, say, Taijuan Walker of the Seattle Mariners, who surpassed that total in his final outing of 2014, as well as Philadelphia Phillies reliever Ken Giles, who was on the big league roster from June 12 to the end of the season.

What we’re looking for are elite young arms who have the right mix of talent (i.e., highly regarded prospects) and opportunity (i.e., proximity to the majors) to do something big in 2015.

Given that this list is about this coming campaign, there’s slightly more emphasis on the latter of those two criteria so that it’s more likely these pitchers actually will, you know, pitch in the big leagues—and make their presence felt—over the next several months.

Let the can’t-miss countdown begin.

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San Francisco Giants’ Top 10 Prospects for 2015

While the San Francisco Giants’ system is top-heavy with pitching prospects, many of the organization’s top young arms profile as either back-end-starter types or guys who might not throw enough strikes to even stick in the rotation.

Right-hander Kyle Crick, 22, might have the highest ceiling in the system, but both his control and command were a mess last season in the Eastern League. Clayton Blackburn, another right-hander, has the highest probability to reach his projected ceiling in the big leagues, as he has good command of a four-pitch mix to go along with a feel for sequencing. 

Ty Blach, 23, is basically a left-handed version of Blackburn, as he lacks overpowering stuff but features advanced command of three pitches. And don’t sleep on hard-throwing right-hander Keury Mella, who’s right there with Crick in the conversation for most upside.

The Giants went after Vanderbilt righty Tyler Beede in the first round (No. 14 overall) of the draft, and, unfortunately, his lack of control/command puts him in the same boat as Crick. However, based on what Crick hasn’t accomplished over the past two seasons, I’d give Beede better odds of reaching his potential.

As for the Giants’ notable position prospects—well, there aren’t many. Catcher Andrew Susac will likely serve as Buster Posey’s backup again in 2015 after thriving in the role late last season, while middle infielder Christian Arroyo, the team’s first-round pick in 2013, is a natural hitter with good bat speed, but he’s still several years away from the major leagues.

Here are the San Francisco Giants’ top 10 prospects for 2015.

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