Kuzul

Prince Fielder smiles a lot. He turns first base into his office, complete with an open-door policy. He chats up base runners, he joshes with umpires. His big face is often lit up with joviality.

Fielder clearly loves his job—so much so that he never takes a day off. Not once has Prince played hooky as a Tiger—and not for quite some time before that as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Since becoming a regular in 2006, Fielder has missed just 13 games—and none since sitting out one in 2010.

The consecutive games-played streak is being honored by Tigers manager Jim Leyland, and as with any such streak, it’s criticized as being perhaps a bit on the selfish side. Baseball is a long grind, and unless you’re the second coming of Cal Ripken Jr., conventional wisdom says you need a day off now and again. Heck, they even said it about Cal himself.

So, Fielder gets his props for playing every day, for smiling, for having fun. His moon face is a fixture at first base—for better and for worse, as the vows say.

The question as to whether Fielder should be given a day off here and there is moot now. These are the playoffs; this isn’t the time for days off. Same goes for Miguel Cabrera.

Ahh, Miguel.

Cabrera smiles a lot, too. He plays the corner opposite Fielder in the infield, and Miggy has as much fun as Prince does, maybe more. Both Fielder and Cabrera are like big kids who haven’t quite grown up, and you get the feeling sometimes that they’d play baseball for nothing.

Cabrera is hurting and hurting bad. That has been well documented. The reigning MVP and Triple Crown winner of a year ago is playing with half a body—the top half. Everything from his stomach on down is a mess.

His home run in Game 5 of the ALDS notwithstanding, Cabrera isn’t anywhere near the hitter he can be—robbed of his fearsomeness by the groin, abdominal and hip muscles that are plaguing him.

Fielder hits behind Cabrera, as he has since becoming a Tiger before the 2012 season. In baseball parlance, they call it protection—placing someone behind your big slugger so teams aren’t as eager to pitch around the slugger.

It’s a sound strategy, and with someone of Fielder’s capabilities, it is indeed a deterrent to constantly pitch around Cabrera.

But these are the playoffs, and Prince Fielder’s history says that when the calendar turns to the 10th month, he turns to goo.

Entering the 2013 postseason, Fielder’s playoff numbers were feeble for a man of his regular season stature.

Fielder was 19-for-104 for his career in the playoffs through last season—9-for-52 as a Tiger, with one home run and three RBI.

That’s not what Mike Ilitch had in mind when he rescued Fielder from the ignominy of being an unwanted free agent just weeks before spring training in 2012.

It hasn’t gotten any better in this postseason.

Cabrera is swinging with basically just his wrists, and Fielder is, by all accounts, healthy as a horse.

Yet, Fielder isn’t really providing any of that so-called protection as he didn’t last year. He has been, frankly, a total bust in the playoffs for his entire career.

That has to change—and fast.

The Tigers need Prince Fielder now more than ever, and they are in the unenviable position of relying on a guy whose postseason resume wouldn’t make it past a recruiter’s first screening.

Cabrera showed, with that clutch homer in Game 5 of the ALDS against Oakland, that the hands still have it—that the wrists can still yank an inside pitch about 375 feet.

But mostly, Cabrera is a singles hitter—half a player who is on the field on sheer guts and nothing else. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if, when the baseball games for the Tigers are done for the year, we find out that Cabrera needs some sort of surgery.

Baseball history is filled with feats of grandeur from players who seem to turn it up a notch when October arrives. When the games mean the most, the performances grow exponentially.

Reggie Jackson and his three homers in Game 6 of the 1977 World Series. Sandy Koufax, limited to just a fastball, beating the Minnesota Twins on two days’ rest in Game 7 of the 1965 World Series. Jack Morris, going 10 ferocious innings to win Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. Who can forget Mickey Lolich, working on short rest and tossing a complete game victory in Game 7 of the 1968 World Series—beating Bob Gibson, no less, who was another who craved the pressure.

And so on.

Fielder has been the antithesis of this.

He’s a slugger who shrinks when the spotlight is on. In the playoffs, the emperor has no clothes.

I have been impressed with Fielder’s knowledge of the strike zone. I don’t believe him to be a flailing windmill. I don’t think he gets enough credit for working a count—in the regular season.

In the playoffs, he turns into a different hitter.

The strike zone becomes generous—at Prince’s behest. He hacks away, almost in a panic. He is twice the easy out he is in games played between April and September.

Prince Fielder has been invisible in the playoffs, yet he’s been impossible to miss. His postseason failure is the elephant in the room.

This isn’t the bleating of someone who believes that a keyboard turns him into an expert. The numbers are raw, and they aren’t pretty. You can look them up yourself, if you’re so inclined.

The Tigers need Prince Fielder more than ever with Miguel Cabrera hurt if they’re to wiggle past the Boston Red Sox and make a return appearance in the World Series.

Fielder has yet to show, in over 100 postseason at-bats, that he can be someone on which to rely in October. A cynic might say that he just doesn’t have it in him.

We’ll see.

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By any reasonable set of standards, Prince Fielder is a fantastic hitter. The Detroit Tigers first baseman owns a .286/.389/.527 career batting line and is one of only 17 players in MLB history with at least 285 home runs through his age-29 season.

…But he’s also one of those guys.

You know, one of those guys who just can’t cut it in October. Fielder has played in six series and 28 games in the postseason, and in those he owns a mere .183/.277/.365 batting line. That’s a .643 OPS that’s close to 300 points below Fielder’s .916 regular-season OPS.

The inevitable question in these situations can be asked with only one word: Why? Or, if you prefer, whyyyyyyyyyy?

Well, this being baseball, there are naturally plenty of answers for Fielder’s postseason struggles. Let’s discuss them, shall we?

More Strikeouts + Bad Luck = A Bad Time

When you think of sluggers, you think of guys who cause baseballs all sorts of pain on contact, but for whom the actual act of making contact is tricky. For examples, see “Dunn, Adam” or “Davis, Chris.”

But Fielder? He’s different.

Fielder has been better than the average player at avoiding strikeouts during his career. Per FanGraphs, his career strikeout rate is only 17.5 percent, and he’s managed to live below that mark over the last three years while strikeout rates have risen elsewhere in Major League Baseball. 

However, things change for Fielder in the postseason. Behold:

Every year Fielder has played in October, he’s seen his strikeout rate take a sudden hike. And overall, his postseason strikeout rate is notably higher than his regular-season strikeout rate.

The simplest explanation for this is that the pitching is better in the postseason. Good teams tend to have good pitchers, after all, so October doesn’t present Fielder as many opportunities to light up the stat sheet against lesser adversaries. 

We’ll get into the more complicated explanations soon enough. For now, let’s just agree that strikeouts are bad, m’kay? They bar players from putting the ball in play, thus hurting their chances of doing something good.

This leads us to another explanation for Fielder’s October struggles. For all his strikeouts, he certainly has put the ball in play a fair amount in the postseason. And when he has, his luck has downright sucked.

Courtesy of FanGraphs, here’s some key data about Fielder’s postseason batted balls and BABIP in the postseason as compared to the regular season:

Fielder’s line-drive, ground-ball and fly-ball rates in the postseason aren’t mirror images of his regular-season numbers, but they’re really close. And while more infield pop-ups and fewer home runs per fly ball isn’t the best trend, it’s not one that should come paired with such a massive decrease in BABIP.

Want to see what this sort of bad luck looks like? Very well then.

This happened to Fielder in the 2011 NLCS:

This happened to him in last year’s ALDS:

And this happened in last year’s World Series:

If we add four hits to Fielder’s postseason resume, he’s a .221 career hitter in the playoffs. That’s still not good, but it’s not as awful as .183 either.

That the baseball gods haven’t done Fielder any favors in his October career is a point that should sound good to the Tigers. If Fielder has had bad luck his previous three trips to the postseason, he’s surely due for some good luck.

However, more good luck won’t turn Fielder into a postseason hero all by itself. He still has that strikeout issue to worry about, and there are other things a bit more tangible than luck working against him.

Such as…

Less Patience + Iffy Plate Discipline = A Badder Time

Striking out less often than the typical power hitter isn’t the only thing Fielder does well. He also has the kind of walk habit you want a slugger to have.

But like with the whole strikeout thing, Fielder’s walk habit takes a turn for the worse in October. Here are some more numbers:

Granted, Fielder’s walk habit didn’t take too bad of a dive in the postseason until last year, when he cut his walk percentage in half and then some. That said, there has been a drop in each of the three years he’s played October baseball, and an overall drop to boot.

Coming up with solid explanations for this habit isn’t easy due to how tricky it is to find data for the postseason. For example, FanGraphs doesn’t track plate discipline data for the playoffs, which is usually the first place one turns to in times like these.

However, there are some things that can be pieced together.

A decline in Fielder’s patience come October appears to be a problem. Per Baseball-Reference.com, Fielder saw an average of 3.83 pitches per plate appearance between 2008 and 2012. Using postseason data from Brooks Baseball, Fielder has seen 429 pitches in his playoff career, which has spanned 119 plate appearances. That comes out to 3.61 pitches per plate appearance, a notable drop.

As for Fielder’s plate discipline, his regular season and postseason swing profiles at Brooks Baseball provide some insight. I unfortunately can’t re-post the images here, but if you go and look you’ll see that Fielder’s habit of chasing pitches up is clearly more pronounced in October, as are his habits of chasing pitches both low and away and outside.

That Fielder is seemingly more willing to expand the zone in the postseason is indeed something that wouldn’t help his chances of getting on base via walks.

And yes, this is something that helps explain his strikeout habit, as there are some big numbers and interesting colors on pitches down and up and outside if one goes and looks at whiff/swing plots for Fielder in the regular season and in the postseason.

Since there’s no plate discipline over at FanGraphs to put more precise numbers on things, I’ll warn that there’s a limit to how much we can read into all this. But it certainly doesn’t look good. Patience and discipline are two of Fielder’s strengths, yet these strengths seem to wane in October.

But wait, there’s more.

In All Three Postseasons, An Abundance of Lefty Sliders

Like, well, pretty much all left-handed hitters, Fielder doesn’t like hitting left-handed pitching. He’s better than most lefties with a career .803 OPS against southpaws, but that’s not quite as impressive as his .971 OPS against righty pitchers.

And if there’s one thing about facing lefty pitchers that Fielder loathes the most, it might be the sliders.

According to Brooks Baseball, Fielder has seen 1,150 sliders from left-handed pitchers in regular-season games from 2008 to 2013. Against those, he’s batted only .253 with 107 strikeouts. He doesn’t have any more than 61 strikeouts against any other lefty pitch.

Knowing this, the numbers in this table shouldn’t surprise you:

*To clarify, this means the percentage of all pitches seen from lefties that were sliders.

In regular-season games over the last six years, Fielder has seen his share of sliders from left-handed pitchers. But in the two postseasons he played in 2008 and 2011, the number of lefty sliders went way up, and he was unable to both lay off them or hit them. And in last year’s postseason, it was even worse.

Against the lefty sliders he saw in the 2008 and 2011 playoffs, Fielder had one hit to three strikeouts. In 2012, it was one hit to two strikeouts. That makes lefty sliders responsible for 20 percent of his career postseason punchouts and only about 11 percent of his postseason hits.

And it makes sense why Fielder would come up against more of them in the postseason, right? With every pitch and every out meaning the world at any given moment, lefty pitchers facing Fielder would be more willing to go to their best offerings in order to get him out. And since it’s worked, shoot, why stop?

Granted, this is more of a complementary explanation for Fielder’s October issues. Some regression in his approach at the plate and bad luck account for the bulk of his postseason struggles. The lefty sliders just haven’t helped.

But now you might be wondering why I sectioned off the 2012 postseason rather than include it with the 2008 and 2011 postseasons. Allow me to shed some light on that with the next bolded section.

In 2012, Too Many Southpaws on the Mound

As poor as Fielder’s overall postseason numbers are, he was actually getting by OK before 2012. He only hit .192 in his first 15 playoff games, but he did so with an .817 OPS. 

Last year was when things really went south. In addition to hitting only .173 in 13 games, Fielder only managed a .463 OPS. Even if his bad luck had become good luck, he still would have had a pretty rough go of things.

But understand this: It wasn’t easy for Fielder. Seemingly every time he went to the plate, there was a left-hander on the mound.

This is not an exaggeration. Here’s a look at the percentage of pitches from lefty pitchers that Fielder saw in the 2012 playoffs compared to 2008-2013 regular-season games and 2008/2011 postseason games:

In the 2008 and 2011 playoffs, things were basically normal for Fielder. But last year? Yeah, not normal at all.

It’s not that Fielder was constantly facing LOOGYs. That big number is more a matter of the Oakland A’s, New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants each throwing two lefty starters at the Tigers. The full list: Tommy Milone, Brett Anderson, CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Barry Zito and Madison Bumgarner.

As for the lefty relievers Fielder had to face, that list includes: Jerry Blevins, Clay Rapada, Boone Logan, Jose Mijares and Jeremy Affeldt.

Now, I should note that Fielder deserves credit for the work he did against the southpaws he saw. Eight of his nine postseason hits last year came against lefties and only five of his 11 strikeouts.

The catch, however, is that all eight of those hits were singles. That fits with Fielder’s career narrative, as his career Isolated Power against lefties is about 80 points lower than his career Isolated Power against righties (see FanGraphs). Throwing lefties at him is the best way to neutralize his power. 

And while it’s admittedly hard (if not impossible) to back up the following suggestion with data, I wonder if having to face lefties so much more often than usual got Fielder all out of whack. It could be that his timing got thrown off. Or maybe it was a vision thing. Maybe it was both.

Whatever the case, I presume that having to go through a gauntlet of southpaws in October is something Fielder would prefer not to do again.

Final Thoughts

To repeat what was said way back when, Prince Fielder is one of those guys. In some circles, those guys tend to be known simply as “bums.” Because how else can you refer to guys who can’t get it done in October, darn it?

Instead, here’s how I look at Fielder: He’s proof positive that the postseason is a different animal.

The pressure is a lot higher in the postseason. That Fielder’s approach has been less measured in October suggests that he’s felt that pressure.

But also, the pitching is different in the postseason. That Fielder has had to deal with so many of those dastardly left-handed sliders is Exhibit A for him.

And then there’s luck. The luck of the draw didn’t do Fielder any favors by throwing so many lefties at him last year, and then there’s all the bad luck he’s had on batted balls.

The bright side, such as it is, is that all the postseason presents is a series of small sample sizes. What is true in a small sample size can indeed be misleading, and the truth can change as the overall sample size gets larger.

In other words: don’t rule out Fielder having a big October this year just because of what he’s done in the past.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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There is still plenty of baseball left to play. With the exception of the Atlanta Braves in the National League East, every division is more or less up for grabs.

But the fate of teams’ pursuit of the playoffs and World Series can sometimes depend on the performance of key players. For instance, if A.J. Burnett, who has sported a 2.73 ERA (versus park-adjusted 130 ERA+) to date, were to pitch poorly in the playoffs, his regular-season triumphs would all be for null.

Below are five players who must prove they’re clutch in the 2013 pennant races.

All statistics (through July 8) sourced from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com.

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The American League Central is one of the most interesting divisions in all of baseball this season.

The Detroit Tigers once again entered the year as runaway favorites to take the division crown, and are once again struggling at the first quarter mark, trailing the Cleveland Indians by 2.5 games.

The Indians, who finished 20 games back in the division last year with only 68 wins, are on pace to reach close to 100 wins this season, and are the hottest team in baseball, winning 18 of their last 22 games.

But unlike the Tigers, the Indians aren’t doing it with star power.

The Tigers lead the AL in runs, average and on-base percentage, but have struggled lately, going 4-6 in their last 10 games, with two of those wins coming against the dreadful Houston Astros.

Yet, most of the players on this list are donning the Old English D.

It has been a fun first quarter to watch, and has definitely been unexplainable at times, but here is my list for the AL Central Position Player All Stars at the first quarter mark:

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Torii Hunter, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder have been tearing the cover off the ball so far this baseball season, and they don’t look to be slowing down anytime soon.

The Detroit Tigers‘ 2-3-4 hitters are leading the team in batting average in their same respective lineup order to help the struggling Tigers keep their heads above water.

For most of the first month of the season, the Tigers’ top three hitters led boasted the best batting average and on-base percentage in the American League.

Detroit has struggled over the past week, losing its last four games to fall to fourth in AL team batting average, but the Tigers’ stars are doing their jobs.

Here is why the Tigers’ three best hitters will continue their torrid pace for the rest of the season:

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Topps unveiled the world’s largest baseball card on Tuesday, measuring 90 feet by 60 feet. 

MLB.com tweeted pictures of the card, which showcases Detroit Tigers first baseman Prince Fielder:

As if the 5’11”, 275-pound behemoth could get any bigger. 

In all likelihood, no one is going to be collecting or trading these cards. Then again, I’ve seen people do stranger things.

Topps, a Brooklyn-based company, has been around since 1938. The company made its first sets of cards in 1951. Since then, Topps has been looking for new ways to spice up its products, from new designs to different materials.

The latest move by Topps is just another means to attract publicity. Judging by the overall reaction to the unveiling on Tuesday, it appears the company did a fine job.

Little is known regarding the future of these jumbo-sized cards. Will there be a running series of them, ranging from Fielder to the smallest players of MLB like Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia?

Also, what would the cost of the cards be? Would they become collectors’ items? And where would you store them?

For all of us who collected baseball cards as a kid, our memories of opening up that new set came flashing back on Tuesday, in the form of a larger-than-life Prince Fielder.

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We all remember musical chairs. It was a simple numbers game—there was no other way to look at it, unless you grew up spittin‘ game like me and always lined up behind the cute girl in class so that as soon as the music stopped you swooped right underneath her so her backside conveniently landed right in your lap—but that’s neither here nor there. There weren’t enough chairs to go around.

A baseball roster has only 25 spots on it, and the Detroit Tigers have a problem similar to the level of suaveness of Arthur Fonzarelli: something we call a surplus.

The Tigers just re-signed RHP Anibal Sanchez to a reported five-year, $80 million contract. There’s a lot to like in Anibal’s game, but shelling out $80 million on a guy without a “stellar” year to his credit is a lot like handing the role of Superman to Brandon Routh. Let’s hope this was more of a Dave Dombrowski move than a Mike Illitch move.

The problem with the Sanchez signing may not lie in the numbers—since Illitch literally has as much care for his finances as Charles Montgomery Burns—but it does create a riddle of space and volume within the Tigers organization.

As mentioned, we have 25 spots, and more than 25 names with which to fill them. Let’s look at the numbers, and see how this Sanchez signing may affect the overall landscape of the Tigers’ Opening Day Roster.

What the Team Looks Like Today

If we drew up the 25-man roster today, here’s what we would have:

The batting order: 1. Austin Jackson, 2. Torii Hunter, 3. Miguel Cabrera, 4. Prince Fielder, 5. Victor Martinez, 6. Andy Dirks, 7. Jhonny Peralta,  8. Alex Avila, 9. Omar Infante.

The starting rotation: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello.

The bullpen: Bruce Rondon, Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Bryan Villareal, Al Alberquerque, Phil Coke, Drew Smyly.

The reserves: Ramon Cabrera (backup catcher), Quintin Berry (utility OF).

Here is where it gets tricky. We’re already at 23 players are there a few names you already know are missing.

Don’t forget that the Tigers just drafted two players from the Rule 5 draft: Kyle Lobstein and Jeff Kobernus. If you’re not familiar with the rules regarding this draft, it’s very simple: any player you draft must remain on your 25-man roster for the following year or he is forfeited. Basically, you can’t send anyone you draft down the minors. 

Another detail is that you actually do not have to draft, if you so choose. So, by following simple logic, the Tigers did draft these players and, therefore, must like them. They will be on the roster this season.  And, what a coincidence, they round out the 25 men.

If you aren’t familiar with either of these players, don’t be ashamed. Lobstein is a LHP who will come out of the bullpen, and Kobernus is an infield version of Quintin Berry (speed for days, decent bat and good defense).

Now, let’s see how this roster affects all those little rumors swirling around out there.

Rick Porcello Will be Traded

According to media reports, there are as many names about to replace Porcello‘s in the fifth rotation spot as there are actors who have portrayed Dr. Who (personally, I find it a shame Christopher Eccleston doesn’t hurl the pill, but the Brits never did like “the baseball”). The question still begs: Is it worth it to trade Porcello? Let’s watch the dominoes fall if that in fact were the case:

Consequence 1: Drew Smyly fills his spot.

Consequence 2: Tigers have to trade Porcello for a LH relief pitcher.

Consequence 3: Tigers farm system is even more depleted.

Alternative? Roll out the all-righty rotation with Porcello at No. 5. Smyly returns to the bullpen where he shined in the playoffs, and the Tigers have protection in terms of depth in case one of their aces (here’s lookin‘ at you, Fister) succumbs to injury.

Let’s also not forget the dreaded 2014 offseason. Both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer become free agents at that time, and it’s hard to believe that even Illitch (likely exiled to a full-bodied respirator a la Arthur Digby Sellers, Lebowski-style) will have the pockets to retain both of their services. 

In the likely instance the Tigers lose one (most likely Scherzer to the Yankees), they will be counting on Sanchez and Fister filling the holes while Porcello and Smyly represent a bright future. Without one of them, I don’t see another pitcher in the system ready to handle a role like that.

The Tigers Will Acquire an Established Closer

Herman Boone once handed the reins to the offense of the T.C. Williams football squad to a quarterback who had never played a down (at least in the movie), and look what happened? Sunshine rode them golden locks to the state title. It can happen. Youth can be a lighting rod.

Look around the league. Atlanta, the Yankees, Boston with Papelbon, Texas and Neftali Feliz. What do they have in common? Homegrown bullpens. If there is one subdivision of a baseball team that needs to be homegrown, it’s a bullpen. Why do think teams are so quick to flip successful middle relievers for young prospects? Because they’re a dime a dozen. 

High-octane arms with a two pitches are not hard to come by for those who look for them in the draft. 

Closers? Difference story. But you know what? It’s time for the Tigers to sack up and roll the dice.  Bruce Rondon needs to be the closer this year. Come out and say it, Dave. Make no doubt about it.  Either that, or you send $15 million for a one-year deal for Rafael Soriano? C’mon. 

Rondon is going to get his chance sooner or later. Might as well be now. If he blows it, that’s why MLB invented a trade deadline. Make a move then. This is one of those rare occasions where the right move and the thrifty move are one and the same.

The Tigers Need an Upgrade at Shortstop

This one goes back to Rick Porcello. Dave Cameron wrote a very interesting piece on Kid Rick (found here) where he astutely outlines that if Porcello had a decent defense behind he would actually be a very valuable pitcher. Sorry, Jhonny Peralta, but that means you gotta go. Stephen Drew rumors have been swirling around forever, but nothing’s happened. 

Time to change that, Dave. Grab the defensive whiz and start saving some runs for Porcello—who could become the best fifth starter in baseball.

So, say Drew is added. Where does Peralta go? Send on the prospects! Where do the Tigers need the most prospects? In the infield. Hitting machine Nick Castellanos and Avisail “the Tool Man” Garcia are waiting in the wings in the outfield, and, with Austin Jackson, pretty much have the Tigers covered pole-to-pole for the foreseeable future. A project at 2B or 1B would be ideal since either FIelder or Cabrera will switch to DH once Martinez’s contract is up after 2014.

Where in the World Will Brennan Boesch Land?

Boesch was likely the most notable name left off the 25-man roster above. Once a fan favorite for this ability to hit, he has now slipped into afterthought status due to a string of mediocre performances. The man is on his way out, it’s just a matter of when or for what price. Personally, I can’t say these words enough: MORE PROSPECTS!

There are rumors of Boesch to the Mariners for a LHP (Charlie Furbush doing his best Darth-Vader-return-to-the-light-side impersonation, anyone?), which I’m personally fine with. It may be best to trade him for Brendan Ryan and have Ryan he a platoon guy with both Drew and Infante in the middle. Ryan hit .234 against LHP last season and is considered the best defensive SS in the game. Any upgrade to the defensive side of the baseball should be a welcomed one.

Who Gets the Scraps

Unfortunately, a fan favorite of mine, Ramon Santiago, is another odd man out. He, along with Danny Worth, do not have a job come the beginning of April and need new homes. Ship them for prospects and hope we get lucky is all I can say. Poor Ramon.   

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After watching the San Francisco Giants do a little bit of everything and a lot well to take a 2-0 series lead, the Detroit Tigers take solace in returning to their home field. Though history suggests a comeback is not in the offing, the club remains confident. 

To win the vital Game 3 though, Detroit has to improve in a few vital areas. First and foremost, they aren’t hitting. Give the Giants credit, they have played brilliantly at times. But the vital organs of their potentially explosive offense have not been functioning. Hitting just .167 in the series so far, Detroit must start producing at the plate or the Major League Baseball season could be done before the weekend ends. 

But in all fairness, the problems have not just been limited to the Tigers’ woes at the plate. With an ERA of 5.63 thus far, the pitching hasn’t been playoff-caliber either. And for once, the blame can’t all be heaped on Jose Valverde. So here are my three key players that have to deliver for the Tigers to get back into this series.

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Of the four Division Series matchups, this one probably featured the most different teams.

The Athletics exceeded almost everyone’s expectations with rookies and other youngsters, while the Tigers were on the outside looking in for most of the season despite their high expectations with superstars like Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder on the roster.

In Game 1, pitching ruled the day. Justin Verlander bounced back from a shaky beginning to strike out 11 in seven innings and Jarrod Parker gave up three runs in six and a third in his first career postseason start.

Both bullpens were effective and the Tigers earned a nail-biting 3-1 victory in the first game of the best-of-five Division Series. Here are Game 1 grades for each team.

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Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Jose Valverde account for $73 million of the Tigers‘ payroll this year.

And nearly thirty games in, General Manager David Dombrowski might well be asking himself if the Tigers are seeing the type of returns expected from such a large investment.

It’s true that 28 games isn’t enough to gauge a ball club, but it’s enough of a sample size to start making some observations about the Tigers’ performance in 2012. Not considering inadequate contributions from the bottom of Detroit’s lineup and so-so bullpen, many Tigers fans are also asking themselves, “Should we have put all these eggs in the same basket?”

With the Tigers sitting in the middle of pack in the AL Central, now is a good time to take a look at the production numbers of Detroit’s highest-paid players:

Prince Fielder ($23 million)

In terms of power, Fielder is off to a slow start, with only 4 home runs. His batting average of .308 sits a bit higher than his career (.283), but his on-base and slugging percentages (.381 and .452, respectively) are slightly lower than his career averages of .389 and .537.

Fielder may be experiencing the adjustment period most hitters do when changing leagues, but it’s not enough for serious concern. Perhaps he should have more than 14 RBIs at this point in the season (.412 BA with runners in scoring position), but again, his numbers so far are not cause for panic.

Is his plate-production worth $23 million? That question remains to be answered.

Miguel Cabrera ($21 million)

While a BA of .284 might not seem too shabby, Dombrowski and Leyland are probably expecting more out of their star third basemen given his massive salary and given his career batting average of .316.

His OBP and SLG percentages are off a bit, but what’s really got Detroit worrying is Cabrera’s average with runners in scoring position (.296). Again, it might not seem all that bad, but it’s a far cry from Cabrera’s 2011 batting average of runners in scoring position of .388.

Another thing Tigers fans might be worried about is Cabrera’s ability to drive in runs with two out. Last year, Cabrera batted .382 with runners in scoring position and two out—this year: .250, including 0-3 last night in Seattle.

With a salary of $21 million, and an obvious downside on defense, Dombrowski might also be asking himself if Cabrera is living up to his paycheck.

Justin Verlander ($20 million)

Not much to complain about here. In six games started, Verlander has gone 2-1 and put up an ERA of 2.38 and a WHIP of 0.86. He’s averaging 8.3 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings.

Verlander has shown that his below-average Aprils are a thing of the past.

Jose Valverde ($9 million)

The next highest-paid player on the Tigers might be the biggest disappointment.

While it’s impossible to expect him to repeat his 2011 perfection (49 for 49 in save opportunites), Valverde has struggled to keep runners off base in 2012 and has already blown two saves. His ERA of 5.68 must come down if the Tigers are going to build on their success in 2011.

It’s early in the season, and Detroit’s big-money players have plenty of time to put up big-money numbers, but with a record of 14-14, there’s no question that Motown is a bit anxious for an adequate return on their investment.

Stats derived from Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com

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