Tag: MLB All Star Game

Which Pitchers Should Start for the AL and NL All-Stars?

Any fool can pick an All-Star starting lineup. All you have to do is sit at your computer and click away until you reach the voting limit or you get carpal tunnel syndrome, whichever comes first.

But choosing which pitchers should start the All-Star Game? That’s up to Ned Yost and Terry Collins. And because the game counts, they can’t make the call without putting some thought into it.

We know which players made the first cut for the American League and National League rosters, which the league announced Tuesday evening. Yost, who will manage the AL All-Stars at Petco Park on July 12, has five starting pitchers to choose from. Collins, the NL manager, has a whopping eight.

Which pitchers are the right guys for the job? Let’s pretend we know what we’re talking about weigh the options and figure it out! 

  

American League

The Options: Marco Estrada (Toronto Blue Jays), Cole Hamels (Texas Rangers), Danny Salazar (Cleveland Indians), Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox), Steven Wright (Boston Red Sox)

These five have something important in common. So long as the probable pitchers at ESPN.com are in order, none of these guys are slated to pitch Sunday. That means none of them will be barred by rule from toeing the rubber in San Diego.

However, Marco Estrada is dealing with a bad back that, as the Associated Press (via ESPN.com) reported, put him on the disabled list. He’ll still travel to San Diego but won’t participate in the game.

That narrows the search down to just four options, and now we’re on our own. Per Scott Merkin of MLB.com, Yost refused to tip his hand on the topic:

If Yost wants to go with the guy who’s earned the start over multiple seasons, he’ll lean so far toward Chris Sale that he’ll be violating the lefty’s personal space. This is the Chicago White Sox ace’s fifth straight All-Star appearance. All those have come in the American League, and he’s still waiting on his first start.

If Yost wants to go with the guy who’s having the best season, there’s an argument. At 2.36 and 10.3, Danny Salazar has the best ERA and strikeouts-per-nine rate among his options. Add in his 10-3 record, and that’s arguably enough to overrule Sale’s 14-2 record, 2.93 ERA and 8.9 K/9 rate.

Another thing to consider is how Yost’s guy would match up against the National League’s starting lineup. Collins hasn’t picked a designated hitter yet, but we know who the other eight hitters are:

That’s four right-handed hitters, two left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters. Put a right-hander on the mound, and it’s an even split between righty batters and lefty batters. Put a left-hander on the mound, and he’s looking at six right-handed batters. Potentially seven if Collins picks Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Wil Myers or a number of other right-handed options to be his DH.

That doesn’t bode well for Cole Hamels, who has been hit harder by righty batters this season than any of Yost’s options. But it doesn’t crush Sale’s chances. He’s handled righty batters better than right-handers Salazar and Steven Wright. And not just in 2016, either.

That makes Sale an ideal candidate to start. And for what it’s worth, his manager has no objections to the idea.

“I would like to see (Sale) do whatever he wants to do,” Robin Ventura said, via Paul Skrbina of the Chicago Tribune. “He’s earned the right to do it. Whether they ask him to do it is another thing. … To be the guy who is asked to start is special.”

Verdict: Chris Sale

  

National League

The Options: Jake Arrieta (Chicago Cubs), Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants), Johnny Cueto (San Francisco Giants), Jose Fernandez (Miami Marlins), Jon Lester (Chicago Cubs), Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals), Noah Syndergaard (New York Mets), Julio Teheran (Atlanta Braves)

Hoping for Madison Bumgarner to draw the assignment? Too bad. He’s slated to start Sunday. Unless the San Francisco Giants call that off (and they won’t), he’s nixed from consideration.

That leaves seven options, one of whom is one of Collins’ guys. As Adam Rubin of ESPN.com notes, at least two pundits are reading into that:

Noah Syndergaard would be a good choice. He’s rocking a 2.41 ERA and an 11.0 K/9. He’s walking only 1.3 batters per nine innings to boot. His peripherals, including a microscopic 1.89 FIP, rate him as the best of Collins’ choices.

Plus, there’s the entertainment value of Syndergaard taking the bump. His average fastball of 98.2 miles per hour is the highest FanGraphs has recorded since 2002 for a starting pitcher, and he’s routinely climbed into triple digits. If given a chance to air it out in a short stint, he might make even Aroldis Chapman jealous.

However, that idea could make Collins and the rest of the New York Mets feel uneasy. Syndergaard is pitching with a bone spur in his right elbow. Logic says the Mets shouldn’t push their luck with that.

If Syndergaard is off the board, the legacy candidates will be 2015 Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta and veterans Johnny Cueto and Jon Lester. With a 2.33 ERA, Arrieta is also having a darn good season despite a recent slump.

Or, Collins could go straight for the matchup advantage. This year’s AL lineup does present one of those:

Whoever gets the ball for the NL will face a lineup with six right-handed batters. This makes Jose Fernandez an attractive option. He’s not only doing the best against righty batters this year, but by far the best dating back to his rookie year in 2013.

There’s more working in Fernandez’s favor. The 2.69 ERA he has this season has put his career ERA at 2.47. Among starters with at least 60 starts since 2013, that ranks behind only Clayton Kershaw (1.90), who is on the DL with a bad back. And with a 13.1 K/9, Fernandez is also working on the third-highest single-season strikeout rate ever for a starting pitcher.

Syndergaard and Arrieta are two excellent choices. If Collins goes with either of them, he won’t be going wrong.

Fernandez, though, looks like the best option.

Verdict: Jose Fernandez

   

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked, and are current through play on Wednesday, July 6.

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2016 MLB All-Star Roster: Biggest Snubs and Surprises

The annual announcement of the MLB All-Star Game rosters always sparks debate around the league.

With only 34 roster spots in each league, there are inevitably at least a handful of notable snubs each season. It simply boils down to a numbers game.

It’s easy to forget that, before putting together a historically good second half last season, Chicago Cubs ace Jake Arrieta was snubbed from the NL roster.

At the same time, the rosters have also been known to produce a surprise or two.

Who predicted Josh Harrison would earn a spot in 2014?

He didn’t have a spot on the ballot or a set position in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ lineup, but his versatility in a breakout offensive season landed him among the NL reserves.

Now that this year’s rosters have been released, it’s time to once again dive into the biggest snubs and surprises.

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MLB All-Star Voting Results 2016: Full Selections, Starters, Snubs and More

Can Mike Trout make it three All-Star Game MVP awards in a row?

That’s the question for the Los Angeles Angels phenom as he was once again voted into the starting lineup for the American League Tuesday night. The All-Star Game will be played July 12 in San Diego, California.

The American League has won three games in a row, and catcher Salvador Perez of the Kansas City Royals secured the highest vote total of any player in either league. The Royals catcher is becoming a dominant player.

Perez’s teammate, Eric Hosmerwill join him in the American League starting lineup, starting at first base. Jose Altuve, a legitimate American League MVP candidate, will start at second base. The Houston Astros star is hitting a league-best .353 and he has also bashed 14 home runs and 49 RBI.

Shortstop Xander Bogaerts of the Boston Red Sox has plenty of company in the starting lineup. In addition to slugging designated hitter David Ortiz, outfielders Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. will also start for the American League. Bradley had a 29-game hitting streak earlier this year, and he is one of the best defensive outfielders in either league.

Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles, another legitimate MVP candidate with a .325 batting average along with 18 home runs and 50 RBI, will start at third base even though he has played most of the season at shortstop.

On the National League side, the Senior Circuit has a distinctly Chicago Cub flavor. Anthony Rizzo will start at first base, Ben Zobrist was voted in as a starter at second base along with Addison Russell at shortstop and MVP candidate Kris Bryant is at third base.

Zobrist edged out Daniel Murphy of the Washington Nationals by 88 votes, according to ESPN Stats & Info, and while that’s a difficult reality for the Washington second baseman, he did make the team as a reserve.

Buster Posey edged out Yadier Molina and will start behind the plate for the National League. However, a good case can be made that Wilson Ramos of the Washington Nationals deserved to start as a result of his superb first half.

Ramos made the All-Star team as a reserve, and teammate Bryce Harper will start in the outfield along with Yoenis Cespedes of the New York Mets and Dexter Fowler of the Cubs.

Other National League key reserves Paul Goldschmidt of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Matt Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals, Nolan Arenado of the Colorado Rockies and Corey Seager of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Seager has been impressive throughout the year. He is hitting .305 with 17 homers and 41 RBI, and his performance has been more consistent than Russell’s. The Chicago shortstop hit two home runs Tuesday and now has 11 for the season

American League reserves include Mark Trumbo of the Baltimore Orioles, who has 24 home runs, along with Robinson Cano, who is hitting .303 with 19 home runs for the Seattle Mariners. Ian Desmond, an MVP candidate for the Texas Rangers, made the American League team at shortstop. He is hitting .321 with 15 home runs and 52 RBI.

Clayton Kershaw was named to the National League pitching staff and almost certainly would have been the starter if he had not been put on the disabled list recently with a back issue. That honor could fall to Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nationals, Jake Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs or Noah Syndergaard of the New York Mets.

Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox could start for the American League, although that honor could go to Cole Hamels of the Texas Rangers or perhaps Danny Salazar of the Cleveland Indians. The American League has nine relief pitchers and just five starters.

There are significant snubs on both sides. Brandon Crawford (.270, 8 HR, 53 RBI) has been a mainstay for the San Francisco Giants at shortstop and he won’t be in San Diego, and neither will Freddie Freeman (.292, 14 HR, 31 RBI) of the Atlanta Braves or Gregory Polanco (.297, 12 HR, 50 RBI) of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Ian Kinsler did not get named to the American League team, even though he is on pace to score 123 runs and drive in 100. Power hitter Chris Davis of the Orioles was left off the American League team despite bashing 21 home runs and driving in 56 runs. Red Sox star second baseman Dustin Pedroia was not named to the American League team, either.

 

 All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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MLB All Star Roster 2016: Top Snubs After Official Voting Results

There’s never enough room on the MLB All-Star rosters for every deserving player. 

Both leagues’ stacked Midsummer Classic teams were revealed Tuesday night. For every feel-good story recognized, some great players are left with nothing to show for their stellar starts.

Expect some changes before next Tuesday’s showdown. Two more players will be selected in the final fan vote, and injuries are bound to cause some honorees to bow out. Starting pitchers who take the mound on Sunday are prohibited from partaking, a rule that results in extra turnover.

For now, the following exclusions will simply have to enjoy a short vacation instead of traveling to San Diego.

All-Star Snubs

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Detroit Tigers

The San Francisco Giants of All-Star Games, Ian Kinsler has made the Midsummer Classic in each of the last four even years. Despite sporting a worthy portfolio, the streak will snap unless he garners the final fan vote.

The 34-year-old is having his best offensive season in years, hitting .290/.348/.496 with 16 home runs and eight stolen bases. His 124 weighted runs created plus, a ballpark-adjusted measure of offensive production graded on a scale where 100 is average, represents his highest clip since 2008. 

He’s well on pace to procure his first 20-homer campaign since going deep 32 times five years ago. After hitting his 200th career homer on Sunday, Kinsler joined a select group of versatile players, as noted by MLB.com’s Richard Justice:

Per the Detroit News‘ Chris McCosky, the Detroit Tigers standout expressed pride in his all-around game.

“I try to do whatever it takes and not be one-dimensional,” Kinsler said. “It’s kind of my goal, when I play the game, to be able to run the bases well, play defense well and try to perform every aspect of the game on offense—steal, score from first, advance on a ball in the dirt.”

Nevertheless, the fans chose right by selecting Jose Altuve, and Robinson Cano’s resurgent bat commanded a bench spot. Kinsler was ultimately hurt by Eduardo Nunez occupying a spot as the Minnesota Twins’ lone honoree.

  

Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds needed a representative. Although Odubel Herrera and Adam Duvall are both enjoying great seasons, neither would have beaten out Gregory Polanco without the rules forcing all 30 teams to send someone.

Polanco has a case to start in the National League outfield, but he now needs an injury to make the roster. He should be on speed dial if Dexter Fowler—currently on the disabled list with a right hamstring strain—can’t play. According to MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat, Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon said his starting center fielder could soon return.

“It’s not impossible to think [he can return] by the end of this week,” Maddon said. “It’s a day-to-day thing. It’s getting better. Obviously, he’s motivated to play in the All-Star Game. I understand that. We’ll just play out the rest of the week and see where it takes us.”

Polanco‘s 3.0 WAR eclipses Fowler’s and Yoenis Cespedes’ and matches Bryce Harper’s. Excluding Kris Bryant—who will start at third despite spending some time in the outfield—only reserve Marcell Ozuna has a higher mark among National League outfielders.

Hitting .294/.374/.521 with a career-high 12 home runs, the 24-year-old has unseated Andrew McCutchen as the Pittsburgh Pirates’ star. He has also netted an 11.5 walk percentage and 35.3 hard-hit rate during his breakout campaign. 

If it’s any consolation, he’ll make plenty of All-Star teams down the road.

 

Jake Lamb, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

The National League houses four third basemen with an OPS above .935 and WAR of 3.3 or better. That’s a lot of infielders for one position, but manager Terry Collins should have found a way to fit them all.

Instead, Jake Lamb did not receive an invite despite boasting an National League-best .609 slugging percentage. As highlighted by AZCentral.com’s Nick Piecoro, most of his power has come in pivotal spots for the Arizona Diamondbacks:

Other than biased opinions, a major flaw in fan voting is everyone flooding the ballots early before digesting the full picture. This process apparently leaked into the bench selections, as the 25-year-old recorded a 1.066 June OPS.

Lamb hit six home runs last year. He now has six over the past two weeks. 

Collins could have easily justified rostering Lamb alongside Bryant, Nolan Arenado and Matt Carpenter since Bryant can handle left field and Carpenter has spent the past month playing second base. Fans can rectify the error by choosing him in the final vote.

 

Note: All advanced stats are courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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2016 MLB All-Star Game: Predictions for Starting AL, NL Rosters

The All-Star Game is one week away, and Major League Baseball will announce the starting rosters for the American League and National League on Tuesday night.

While there is a chance for some changes in voting based on last week’s results, the tightest races are in the American League’s outfield and the National League’s catching showdown. 

Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels, the MVP of the last two All-Star Games, should be secure in the American League outfield, while Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts of the Boston Red Sox are trying to hold off Lorenzo Cain of the Kansas City Royals and Mark Trumbo of the Baltimore Orioles. 

Bradley had a 29-game hitting streak earlier this year, which brought him some attention. In addition to being one of the top defensive outfielders in the game, he brought his improvement as a hitter into focus. While his average has dropped in the last month, Bradley is still hitting .294 with 13 home runs and 53 RBI.

Betts started the season slowly, but he has raised his average to .296, hit 18 home runs and knocked in 57 runs. Betts has stolen 13 bases on 14 attempts, while Bradley has swiped seven on eight attempts.

Cain is having a solid year for the Royals, but his numbers are a tad below those of the Boston duo. Cain, who suffered a hamstring injury in late June, is hitting .290 with eight home runs and 39 RBI.

Even if Trumbo doesn’t make the starting lineup, it will be difficult to keep him off the American League roster. He has pounded out 24 home runs and knocked in 62 runs while putting together a respectable .280 batting average.

On the National League side, Yadier Molina of the St. Louis Cardinals had a lead of slightly more than 5,000 votes over Buster Posey of the San Francisco Giants, so the vote could end up in either star’s favor when MLB makes the final announcement.

While Molina and Posey have been two of the best catchers in the big leagues over the years, Wilson Ramos of the Washington Nationals appears to be the most deserving candidate this season.

Ramos is having a sensational season, hitting .340 with 13 home runs and 46 RBI. Posey is having a fine year with a .291 batting average along with 10 homers and 40 RBI. Molina’s production has been limited, as he has hit just one home run and driven in 27 runs to go with his .259 batting average.

The four Chicago Cubs infielders are leading the way at their respective positions. Anthony Rizzo is in command at first base, while Ben Zobrist and Kris Bryant are on top at second and third base, respectively. Those three are having fine years for a Cubs team that got off to a sensational start this season, but shortstop Addison Russell has been disappointing.

Russell is hitting .238 with nine home runs and 45 RBI, and Trevor Story of the Colorado Rockies and Corey Seager of the Los Angeles Dodgers are having better years. Story is batting .264 with 19 home runs and 50 RBI, while Seager is hitting .305 with 17 home runs and 41 RBI.

On the American League side, catcher Salvador Perez is the leading vote-getter among all major leaguers with more than 3.7 million votes.

David Ortiz is the second-leading vote-getter with more than 3.4 million supporters, and he is running away with the top spot at designated hitter.

Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros is dominating at second base, while Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles has a sizable lead over Josh Donaldson of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Machado‘s lead is controversial, however, because the ballot lists him at third base even though he has been playing shortstop for the Orioles.

 

All statistics courtesy of CBS Sports as of July 4.

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2016 MLB All-Star Roster: Predicting Starters, Full Lineup for Midsummer Classic

While MLB won’t announce the starters until Tuesday night, the latest voting results provide a good indication of which players will represent their leagues in the 2016 MLB All-Star Game.

MLB Communications released the latest tally as of June 27, three days before the voting closed on June 30. The winners at each position will then be announced Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Although the official lineups, including pitchers and the National League designated hitter, will be up to the managers for each team and may not be known for some time, we can project what each team will look like for the game on July 12.

Here is a look at what to expect for the Midsummer Classic.

 

National League

The Chicago Cubs had dominated throughout the voting process, and unless something dramatic happened in the final couple of days, they should end up with five starters offensively.

Dexter Fowler hasn’t played while dealing with a hamstring injury, but he will apparently do what he can to make it back in time for the All-Star Game, per Carrie Muskat of MLB.com:

If he is in the lineup, it only makes sense for him to lead off, which he has done for the majority of his career.

Fellow Cubs Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo should make up the meat of the order after outstanding starts to the year, as they possess the type of power that can change a game with one swing of the bat. When you add in Yoenis Cespedes, this is almost as good of a middle of the order as you can produce in the National League.

While middle infielders Addison Russell and Ben Zobrist haven’t been quite as stellar as their teammates, the voters have made their preferences known, giving both players spots in the starting lineup.

Perhaps the biggest question mark is at catcher, where Yadier Molina is battling Buster Posey in a close race. While Molina has had an excellent career, Posey is the clear better option this season. Although emotion plays a big part in these types of races, the difference in numbers could be the deciding factor.

It remains to be seen who will be the team’s designated hitter, with two quality options in Nolan Arenado and Daniel Murphy. However, Murphy might have the edge as the league leader in batting average (.348). The second baseman has also been especially dominant against his former team this year, per ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin:

New York Mets manager Terry Collins will have the last call. He can either be vengeful or realize just how good his former player has been this season. We will bet on the latter.

Clayton Kershaw would be the obvious starter at pitcher if he was healthy, but since he’s on the disabled list, the likely choices are Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner. While both are quality options, Bumgarner has been more reliable, especially recently.

Arrieta has failed to reach six innings in five of his last eight starts, while Bumgarner hasn’t pitched less than six since April. He won’t need to pitch more than two innings in the All-Star Game, but his ability to keep opponents off the board is worth the start.

 

 

American League

The top of this lineup is as good as you will find. While the NL will have some questionable starters, the American League will come at pitchers without many holes from top to bottom.

Jose Altuve and Mike Trout at No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, combine high batting averages, elite speed and solid power. With Manny Machado and David Ortiz behind them, there is a high likelihood at least one or two runs go up on the board right away.

Meanwhile, the combination of top players from the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals will ensure a lot of problems for the NL pitchers.

You could probably expect a few Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers players to come off the bench as well, once the full rosters are announced.

At pitcher, there appears to be a two-man race between Danny Salazar and Chris Sale. While Salazar has put up strong numbers all year long, Sale is the clear option after an impressive first half of the season.

The Chicago White Sox star has a 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, but the truly incredible number is his 14 wins in 17 starts.

Meanwhile, the team is going to make sure Sale actually gets a chance to play this time after he sat out a year ago. His manager, Robin Ventura, explained the value in the pitcher taking advantage of this opportunity, per Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago:

I don’t see that as an issue of him being able to pitch in the All-Star Game. I would like to see him do whatever he wants to do. He’s earned the right to do it. Whether they ask him to do it and he does it is another thing. It’s always an honor to play in the All-Star Game and to be the guy who is asked to start it is special. It doesn’t come around very often for a lot of guys and to do it is a feather in your cap.

Based on Sale’s ability to keep runners off base, the first couple of innings could be a challenge for the NL.

 

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2016 MLB All-Star Roster: Predictions for Starting Lineups Before Voting Results

Fans can decipher most of the 2016 MLB All-Star Game starting selections before Tuesday night’s lineup reveal.

Based on the final update that MLB Communications provided last Monday, most of the voting leads are too sizable to erase. Tight battles are brewing in the American League’s outfield and behind the National League’s plate, but voters have flocked to the deserving candidates in recent weeks. 

Overall, the starting lineups will look the way All-Star lineups should. There should be no easy outs on account of bad decisions from the voting populous.

It’s nice when the All-Star teams are actually full of stars. 

With the starters seemingly settled, let’s go a step further and project each squad’s All-Star Game batting order.

 

American League

Not even Ned Yost—the manager who won a World Series despite batting Alcides Escobar in the leadoff spot—can mess up this lineup.

The fans are making the Kansas City Royals skipper’s job easy by selecting a group of deserving, well-rounded hitters. Catcher Salvador Perez has the lowest batting average (.281) in a lineup with five guys batting .325 or better.

Yost will love receiving a lineup full of elite contact hitters with power and speed. Then there’s designated hitter David Ortiz, who is an easy choice to bat cleanup in his final All-Star Game. He deserves it, given his 1.108 OPS, more than 100 points ahead of anyone else.

When everyone is this good, the order doesn’t matter much anyway.

Yost can appreciate the benefit of gaining home-field advantage in the World Series after enjoying it in each of the past two years. Per the Kansas City Star‘s Pete Grathoff, he understands the importance of winning this exhibition contest:

If you’ve ever been to a playoff game in Kansas City, you know that’s a home-field advantage. It’s big. It’s big for everybody, especially when you get down to the end of the season and you’re playing a big series, you want that home-field advantage. You want your fans behind you. You want to sleep in your own bed. It’s important.

Last year, Yost slotted Jose Altuve second in the No. 8 role. The Houston Astros second baseman entered the game hitting .293/.335/.412, justifying his bid afterward with a .337/.372/.512 second-half slash line. 

The 26-year-old has ascended to MVP territory, hitting .355/.428/.575 with more walks (39) than strikeouts (33). Midway into 2016, he’s one home run away from matching last season’s career high of 15.

Last week, MLB statistician Ryan Spaeder monitored Altuve‘s incredible performance days before he earned his fourth four-hit game of the year:

He’ll bat either No. 1 or 2, depending on whether Yost wants Trout No. 2 or 3. After Yost has spent so much time slotting a shortstop with a career .262 average in the leadoff role, Xander Bogaerts‘ .334 average may prove too tantalizing to resist.

A healthy Clayton Kershaw may have coerced the manager into protecting lefty Eric Hosmer, but he’ll want to reward his first baseman for a strong first half at the plate. (His poor defensive metrics are an issue for another day.) Yost will also save Perez from the No. 9 spot to inject one of the Boston Red Sox’s athletic outfielders at the bottom.

 

National League

Despite his postseason power tear, the New York Mets made little effort to bring back Daniel Murphy. This almost certainly wasn’t manager Terry Collins’ call.

Management chose not to pay an erratic fielder with limited plate discipline, but the Mets skipper always featured him prominently in the batting order. Per ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin last month, Collins has continued to speak fondly of Murphy, who is now wreaking havoc on the Mets with the Washington Nationals:

I’m not shocked. I’ve always thought Dan Murphy can win a batting title. If he took bases on balls, as we said many years ago, I think this guy was 10 walks short [instead of outs] of winning a battle title three years ago. It’s in him to do that. I’m excited that he’s doing well. We think the world of Dan and what he did here.

Murphy is one of several infielders who are lagging behind a Chicago Cub in the voting tally. Ben Zobrist will block second base, but Collins can reward the man who tormented the Cubs last October and sent New York to the World Series with four homers in as many games.

Choosing Murphy as the designated hitter wouldn’t just be a biased token of gratitude from an old boss. Murphy sports an NL-best .346 batting average while maintaining last year’s power spark, already replicating last year’s career-high 14 home runs. Altuve and Ortiz are the only other hitters with more extra-base hits than strikeouts.

With Curtis Granderson serving as his leadoff man, Collins seems to understand the importance of setting the table with a patient hitter. While Zobrist isn’t the flashiest All-Star, he leads all NL starters with a .406 on-base percentage. (That would change if Matt Carpenter or Paul Goldschmidt filled the DH spot.)

He’ll likely want to reward Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes for his 20 dingers and .571 slugging percentage, so he joins Cubs corner infielders Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo for a powerful punch. Collins might, however, rearrange the order to alternate his lefties and righties.

Yadier Molina led the latest official update, but Buster Posey soared ahead before the voting closed late Thursday night, according to MLB.com’s Chris Haft. The San Francisco Giants catcher is a household name who is having a far superior season to Molina, so expect him to stay ahead in the tightest race.

After spending his rookie campaign batting No. 9 behind the pitcher, Addison Russell won’t get his feelings hurt by batting at the bottom again. As the one guy in either lineup without All-Star credentials, he’s lucky just to be here.

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Final 2016 MLB All-Star Roster Predictions

At this time of year, numerous articles attempt to predict who will make the trip to the MLB All-Star Game.

With the rosters set to be revealed Tuesday night ahead of the July 12 All-Star Game in San Diego, we’ve decided to take a slightly different approach here.

Rather than focus on forecasting the actual roster, we’ve predicted who fans will talk about once the rosters are announced.

We’ve chosen our biggest position-player snub, pitcher snub and roster surprise for each league while also taking a crack at predicting the five players who will make up the Final Vote ballot in each league.

Now in order to make these predictions, we needed to set a baseline by determining who will be selected. You can find that on the next slide, but the focus here was on the aforementioned categories.

Rounding things out, we made our predictions for how each team’s starting lineup will look, including the starting pitchers.

It’s a slightly different take on the usual roster-prediction article. Enjoy.

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MLB All-Star Voting 2016: Projecting Leaders and Final Results

Voting for the 2016 Major League Baseball All-Star Game has closed, so all that remains is to find out which players will represent the American League and National League in the Midsummer Classic on July 12. 

MLB will announce the rosters Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET, but we can surmise from the most recent voting update from MLB Communications how things will shake out. 

Here are my predictions for who will represent both leagues with two days to go before the final rosters are revealed. 

*Indicates predicted vote leader

 

Predicted Top Vote-Getter: Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals

The big story in this year’s All-Star voting is the lack of drama at nearly every position. The closest race in either league is between Yadier Molina and Buster Posey for starting catcher in the NL, as just over 5,000 votes separated them in the last update.  

But even Molina vs. Posey loses some of the drama because both players will be in San Diego next week, barring injury to either of them. 

That lack of drama carries over to predicting the top vote-getter in both leagues. Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez had 3,754,594 votes in the latest update—more than three times that of the No. 2 AL catcher and more than 354,000 votes ahead of Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz for the top overall vote-getter. 

Last year, the Royals’ dominance in All-Star voting was a joke. It hasn’t been as pronounced this season, but there’s no argument against Perez this year. He’s been brilliant with the bat and glove, and the lack of options at the position is staggering. 

Per FanGraphs, only three AL catchers have enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title. Here’s how their numbers compare to one another:

Perez’s 2.2 wins above replacement is greater than the combined total of Stephen Vogt and Brian McCann. There is no other legitimate choice for fans to get behind even if they wanted to prevent the Royals from sending a player to the All-Star Game. 

Ortiz is the only player who could challenge Perez for the top spot, and it’s a surprise that Red Sox fans haven’t mobilized around him since this is his final season. However, Kansas City has proved the power of its fanbase over the last two years. 

Even a late surge for Ortiz won’t be enough for him to overtake Perez when the final voting totals are in. 

 

Most Egregious Omission: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

It’s taken Cleveland a long time to have a reason to care about its baseball team, but the arrival of Francisco Lindor last June signaled a shift in the franchise’s fortunes. 

The 22-year-old shortstop finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting last year behind the Houston Astros’ Carlos Correa, despite having a higher batting average, on-base percentage, defensive value and wins above replacement, per FanGraphs

The only difference between Lindor and Correa last season was that Houston made the playoffs; the Indians’ strong second half wasn’t enough to overcome a dreadful start. 

Lindor has picked up right where he left off in 2015, yet when you look at the American League voting for shortstops, he doesn’t even register in the top five. Troy Tulowitzki, who missed three weeks in May and June, is ahead of him for no reason other than Toronto is a bigger market. 

This isn’t to say that Lindor should start for the American League in the All-Star Game; Boston’s Xander Bogaerts has been incredible, but Cleveland’s young superstar deserves much better than he’s gotten in this process.

Lindor is going to make the All-Star team as a reserve, but based on the voting, one might assume that Cleveland didn’t even have a shortstop worthy of starting the game. 

That is a staggering oversight for one of the game’s best young players. 

 

Surprise Starter: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

The National League outfield voting is tight among the top three players—Dexter Fowler, Bryce Harper and Yoenis Cespedes—but that doesn’t provide much drama because there are three starting outfield spots. 

Things do get interesting when considering Fowler’s health. The Chicago Cubs outfielder has been on the disabled list since June 20 with a strained hamstring. He is eligible to come back this week, though Cubs manager Joe Maddon has not provided a timetable for his star’s return, per Mark Grote of WCSR:

Hamstring injuries can be tricky to deal with, so the Cubs may not want Fowler to risk aggravating things in the All-Star Game even if he returns at some point this week. 

That opens the door for a new outfielder to take Fowler’s starting spot. If the NL just goes by the voting, Fowler’s teammate Jason Heyward would get the nod, though his performance on the field hasn’t warranted being an All-Star. 

If the NL goes by the voting and player performance, Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun would slide into a starting spot. 

Braun has been one of the few bright spots to watch on a rebuilding team in 2016. The 2011 NL MVP is having his best season since 2012, leading the Brewers in average, slugging percentage and OPS+, per Baseball-Reference.com.

Last year, Braun was an All-Star almost by default because every team has to send a representative. This year he has earned his spot, with the possibility he could start if Fowler sits out to recover for the second half. 

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MLB All-Star Voting 2016: Updated Leaders and Predictions for Fan Selections

Whether or not they win their respective leagues, the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs are set to make a mark on this year’s World Series.

Home-field advantage plays a pivotal role in any playoff series, so MLB naturally lets an exhibition game decide who gets an extra home game during the championship showdown. If the Red Sox or Cubs don’t make the Fall Classic, the participants can thank or blame the All-Star Game outcome.

In the latest voting updates, provided on Monday by MLB Communications, five Cubs and four Red Sox hitters are slated to start the All-Star Game on July 12. Beside Boston outfielder Mookie Betts, all of them have comfortable leads.

The voting window closed on Thursday, and MLB will reveal each side’s starters on Tuesday night. Little is likely to change, but Buster Posey recently gained a narrow lead over Yadier Molina at catcher.

Let’s look at the updated leaderboard before diving into baseball’s premier offenses, who will be heavily represented in the starting lineups.

 

Boston Red Sox

Boston leads MLB in runs scored and weighted on-base average (wOBA), so this isn’t a case of biased fans flooding the ballots for an unjust cause. All four guys deserve their spots.

Luckily for Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado is listed as a third baseman despite switching to shortstop during the season. As a result, both young stars will cohabit the left side of the American League’s infield barring a major voting turnaround.

Although his .337 batting average ranks third in the AL to Jose Altuve and David Ortiz, Bogaerts has taken the anticipated leap to stardom with a power uptick. After hitting seven home runs last year, he has gone deep nine times while also collecting 21 doubles.

The 23-year-old is a legitimate MVP candidate, but he’s not Boston’s best hitter. That honor belongs to Ortiz, whose .684 slugging percentage and .457 wOBA lead all qualified hitters by cavernous margins. 

Fans tend to vote retiring veterans in as a sort of lifetime achievement award, but the 40-year-old has earned his spot. He won’t, however, participate in one final Home Run Derby. According to the Boston Herald‘s Jason Mastrodonato, manager John Farrell is worried about the veteran designated hitter losing a step as a result of running out a league-high 31 doubles.

“There have been some times where it’s maybe not been what we saw early in the season,” Farrell said. “The one thing is, we’ve charted the total bases to date and particularly it’s the doubles, the two-base running that really taxes him.”

The most unlikely name of the bunch, Jackie Bradley Jr., was a career .193 hitter before last year’s All-Star break. He has since recorded 20 homers and 10 steals over 149 games, cementing his late breakout with a .297/.385/.558 slash line this season.

Mastrodonato showed how well the 26-year-old outfielder has performed since last year’s late breakthrough:

Betts, having recently gained possession of the third spot, shouldn’t lose it on Tuesday night. The 23-year-old has gained everyone’s attention by hitting .291/.331/.506 with 16 homers and 13 steals. Meanwhile, two of his top competitors—Jose Bautista and Lorenzo Cain—are on the disabled list

Last year, Brock Holt was the Red Sox’s lone All-Star representative—and a controversial one given his .791 first-half OPS. Now they’re on the verge of sending four players to San Diego, possibly five if knuckleballer Steven Wright gets the starting nod.

 

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have outscored their opposition by 161 runs, and no other team has a triple-digit run differential. They’re the favorites to reach the World Series, so their players might as well fight for home-field advantage.

Chicago is poised to send its entire infield and center fielder Dexter Fowler to the Midsummer Classic. Per the Chicago Tribune‘s Mark Gonzalez, manager Joe Maddon is excited about watching his players share the spotlight.

“All day I’ll be looking forward to that moment of sitting there and watching them being introduced and standing on the line, tipping their cap and that will be awesome for us, as a team, for the organization, and for all Cubs fans,” Maddon said. “It’s pretty powerful.”

Even though Daniel Murphy and Nolan Arenado have valid starting credentials, they will likely make the team as reserves. Beside, Ben Zobrist and Kris Bryant also boast All-Star portfolios.

He can’t match Murphy’s .352 average, but Ben Zobrist warrants a roster spot on the strength of a stellar .406 on-base percentage. The patient 35-year-old has drawn more walks (49) than strikeouts (46) during his first year with the Cubs.

After a recent hot streak, including a three-homer game, Kris Bryant boasts an NL-best 4.0 WAR. He also drilled two doubles on Monday to do something that hasn’t happened for almost as long as the team’s infamous title drought:

Any case for Wil Myers or Paul Goldschmidt isn’t a knock on Anthony Rizzo, who is hitting .279/.402/.566 with 19 dingers. The first baseman validated this choice by batting .378/.467/.744 during a red-hot June.

Addison Russell is the lone pure culprit of homerism. There are far better choices than the shortstop with a .719, particularly Corey Seager:

Nevertheless, Russell’s lead over Trevor Story would’ve been too wide to eliminate in a week, especially with the Cubs faithful backing the 22-year-old. His inclusion would cost Seager, Story and Brandon Crawford trips to San Diego.

 

All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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