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Los Angeles Dodgers star center fielder Matt Kemp is back in the lineup for Friday’s home opener against the San Francisco Giants after recovering from a potentially career-threatening left ankle injury.

While Kemp was projected to return in more of a pinch-hitting capacity, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reported outfielder Yasiel Puig was tardy to Friday’s practice and subsequently benched for the game.

The MLB Lineups Twitter feed confirmed the news:

The Dodgers knew Kemp likely wouldn’t return for the Opening Series games in Australia, which began March 22 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he was later placed on the disabled list just before the first game of the 2014 regular season.

Manager Don Mattingly provided an encouraging update on March 25, suggesting that Kemp could indeed be activated for L.A.’s home opener against the rival Giants:

Kemp’s health makes matters even more complicated for the crowded Dodgers outfield. Puig burst onto the scene as an instant star in right field last season, and Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford are both multi-time All-Stars.

Kemp has refused to settle for a bench role, which makes sense given the caliber of player he’s proven to be when he’s not injured. Per ESPN Los Angeles’ Mark Saxon:

I’m not a fourth outfielder. We can cut that off right there. I won’t accept that role. I can’t accept that role…The [general manager], his job is to do what he does, and I’m going to do what I do. My job is to help the team win. We’ve all got decisions to make and responsibilities. I’m sure it’ll all, you know, come out the way it’s supposed to come out, but I can’t worry about things I can’t control.

If Kemp returns to his previous level of play, Mattingly may be tempted to shuffle him into the lineup more often than Puig, who has already stirred controversy with his antics early in the 2014 season.

Chris Jones of ESPN The Magazine empathized with Mattingly in analyzing Puig’s behavior:

As for Kemp, there is an evident competitive fire to prove his detractors wrong and emulate the form he flashed in between 2009 and 2011. In the latter season, he led the National League with 39 home runs, 126 RBI and 115 runs scored while also stealing 40 bases, finishing second in league MVP balloting.

Unfortunately, Kemp’s body may not allow him to return to an All-Star level. With a total of 145 games missed over the past two campaigns, Los Angeles must tread with caution in easing Kemp back in. According to a report by Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, if he rushes back too soon, he can cause permanent damage to his ailing talus bone, which would put his career in jeopardy.

If Kemp isn’t quite fit enough to play right away, there’s no reason to rush him back with the star power in Tinseltown. That’s especially so since the Dodgers won the NL West Division crown in 2013, proving they could get it done without Kemp for more than half the year.

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To understand the ratings here and why these specific players are risky, first you must understand risk. This is not a general term, but a very specific term of art most closely related to the insurance industry. While we all know Flo and the Geico gecko, few of us have learned how insurance works or why it’s so profitable. If you want to know why Matt Kemp, Derek Jeter and Joe Mauer—three of the biggest names in baseball with contracts to match—are risky, please let me explain before you blow up in the comments.

The Risk Ratings are based on a system that I have been developing for the last 14 years. I was lucky enough to be given access to the actuarial tables created by baseball back then from their actual injury data. Those “Red Books” stopped being published a while back, but the data continue to be developed. Much like you have a rating when you go to insure your house or car, players have the same type of rating. 

If you drive a Corvette, your insurance base will be higher than if you drive a Camry. If you’re a teenager, your rates will be higher than that little old lady from Pasadena. The same is true for baseball players. Age, position, injury history and several other factors go into the ratings. They begin with an actuarial base and then are adjusted up or down by the various factors.

The ratings are then simplified into bands. While there is an underlying number from 0-110, I collect them into three bands—red for high risk, yellow for medium risk and green for low risk. It’s simple and while people often ask for more specific numerical ratings, I don’t feel that it adds significantly to the value of the Risk Ratings.

(Also, I’m admittedly paranoid about people trying to reverse engineer the system! It’s been tried.)

I’ll have the full ratings for you on Friday, in plenty of time for your fantasy drafts, but for now, here are 10 top players whose risk is such that you’ll need to really think about them before putting them at the heart of your team. Of course, the managers and general managers of these teams have real concerns as well. 

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Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp is poised for a major comeback next season following two injury-marred campaigns. Less than two years ago Kemp had emerged as one of MLB’s top five players. Now some may argue that he’s merely the fifth best player playing for the Dodgers.

As a recent NL MVP candidate and a key player on a World Series contender, Kemp’s comeback attempt will be one of the biggest storylines of the coming season. Here are five predictions for what we can expect from the former All-Star in 2014.

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For every Josh Donaldson or Matt Carpenter, there’s an Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Even as comparatively predictable as baseball is to other sports, perfectly projecting all of the breakouts and disappointments is too tall of an order for even the savviest of sabermetricians. 

And that’s why the opposite ends of the production spectrum either dread or relish “next season.”

Take Matt Kemp, for instance. After almost winning the 2011 NL MVP Award and posting a park-adjusted 147 OPS+ in 2012, Kemp was a gimpy dud this past season. In fact, his 105 OPS+ and 263 plate appearances were his worst showings since his rookie year. Needless to say, Kemp is eager for the 2014 season to arrive.

Read on to see the rest of MLB players who are thrilled or devastated to see 2013 end.

All statistics sourced from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have gotten so accustomed to adding big-name talent and payroll over the last two years that the idea of them trading a superstar like Matt Kemp is insane.

Of course, when you already have a surplus of expensive outfielders on your roster, everyone becomes available for the right price.

Kemp has been the source of much trade speculation this offseason. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the former National League All-Star was getting a lot of attention at the winter meetings:  

The #Dodgers getting plenty of action on Matt Kemp but say a deal unlikely to be consummated at winter meetings.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 11, 2013

Dave Stewart, who represents Kemp, told ESPN’s Jayson Stark that the Dodgers don’t plan to move Kemp this offseason: 

Matt Kemp’s agent, Dave Stewart, says #Dodgers informed him today “they have no plans to move him.” More to come at http://t.co/J9TlkjRmi3

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 11, 2013

Who knows what’s really going on behind the scenes in Hollywood?

All of this uncertainty has piqued our interest, getting us to think about which teams could make a deal for Kemp. These are teams with money to absorb Kemp’s contract, prospects to offer the Dodgers and a need in center field. 

Putting together packages for Kemp is more difficult than it might seem, because no one knows how healthy he is heading into spring training. For the purposes of this discussion, we will assume he can be the MVP candidate from 2011 once again. 

Note: All stats courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. 

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The action was modest through the first two days of the Winter Meetings in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., with a couple of secondary-type signings taking place, as well as the interesting three-way trade between the Angels, Diamondbacks and White Sox.

There figure to be at least a few more transactions before the Meetings disband, however, as the Orioles were reportedly on the verge of making a notable free-agent signing on Tuesday night, while the Marlins were reportedly motivated to make a trade and were getting plenty of interest from potential suitors.

Here are six moves that I could see going down before the all the sun bathing wraps up and everyone heads back to the cold-weather regions being pounded by snow and rain. Not that I’m jealous or anything.

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Now that baseball is in the thick of the winter meetings, rumors and potential signings and trades will be heard out the wazoo. Plenty will be going around throughout the next two days or so, and Bleacher Report’s Adam Wells has done a fantastic job of keeping track of them so far.

Among the rumors involving the Philadelphia Phillies are that closer Jonathan Papelbon is being shopped, as is young outfielder Domonic Brown. These came to light thanks to tweets from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal and Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan, respectively.

However, the most intriguing Phillies rumor emerged on Tuesday when ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted the following concerning the Phillies’ pitching staff:

 

The Phillies have indicated to other teams they are ready and willing to talk about Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in trades.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 10, 2013

Considering that the Phillies are still seemingly immersed in a “win-now” mode, it’s strange that they’re contemplating trading the two most reliable cogs of the team, let alone the rotation. What makes this even weirder is that it completely contradicts the signings of Marlon Byrd and Carlos Ruiz. Then again, so does the notion that Domonic Brown could be dealt. So what is the Phillies’ strategy, exactly?

It’s becoming more and more apparent that the Phillies may not have one. But they’re not wrong for listening to potential deals. It’s simply due diligence, though ESPN’s Jayson Stark provided an interesting update on the Lee/Hamels front not too long after Olney‘s tweet: 

Team that talked to #Phillies reports only way they’d trade Lee/Hamels is in “win-win” scenario. Take none of $. Get huge return. Unlikely

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 10, 2013

The prospects of a deal under those circumstances are slim to none. It’s pretty clear that that’s the case. But have the Phillies considered a deal in which established major leaguers, not minor league prospects, are the return?

That possibility lingers in only a few instances. It would involve two high-priced stars being swapped for one another, with each filling holes for the two teams involved. That’s not so easy to find.

However, one instance in which this is a possibility is with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers, who have been connected to Tampa Bay Rays ace David Price, per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, are hesitant to trade away top prospects in their barren farm system to get him. This tidbit comes from Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

Where does that leave the Dodgers? It means that they’re still likely interested in acquiring an ace starter, though they would prefer to give up pieces on the major league team as opposed to within the minors. This is where they could match up in a trade with the Phillies.

Hernandez of the L.A. Times provides even more information, this time coming from Kemp’s agent, Dave Stewart. Stewart believes that Kemp is likely to be traded, even with six years and $130 million remaining on Kemp’s extension signed before the 2012 season.

That’s a hefty price to pay for Kemp, who’s been meddled with injury woes since signing the deal. Such a drawback may not appeal to the Phillies. But the ability to upgrade at a position of need while dealing away another large contract? It’s at least thought-provoking.

The Dodgers want Price, a left-handed ace with two years of team control left. Is Cliff Lee not the same caliber of a pitcher, with two guaranteed years left on his deal and is a southpaw ace?

There is a difference, and that’s cost. Price is still arbitration-eligible, so his salaries will spike from year to year, yet still remain below those of Lee. Lee has two years and $62.5 million guaranteed on his contract, though he could earn $15 million more if his 2016 vesting option kicks in.

The perk to Lee, though, is knowing his cost and knowing that he’s got that potential third year of control left. That may be appealing to the Dodgers if they seek longer commitment than two years, since Price will more likely than not pursue free agency as one of the top starters on the market after the 2015 season.

Kemp appeals to Philadelphia because he’s still a top-flight player when he’s healthy. He’s right-handed and has power, which would be even greater at Citizens Bank Park. His defense is extraordinary. And he’s flashed speed on the basepaths to the point that he nearly achieved a 40-40 season in 2011.

But the kicker? Kemp’s only 29 years old. Lee is 35. For a Phillies team looking to get younger, it doesn’t get any better than this.

The good news with Kemp’s deal as well is that it’s not back-loaded like Lee’s. According to Cot’s, Kemp makes a consistent $21.5 million for each of the last four years of his deal, whereas Lee makes $25 million in 2014 and 2015, with the potential to make $27.5 million as a 37-year-old in 2016.

Per season, Kemp’s average annual value would actually be $4 million less on the Phillies’ payroll than Lee’s, providing some slight wiggle room under the luxury tax. The Phillies wouldn’t have to eat any of Lee’s contract, which is what they’re looking for in any deal involving him. And they’d be receiving an All-Star center fielder who’s a game-changer when on the field.

This trade would have some ramifications on the rest of the Phillies’ outfield, of course. It would mean that Ben Revere would likely be a fourth outfielder, a role which doesn’t utilize his speed enough. In that regard, it isn’t the most practical trade, unless Revere was shipped off with Lee. Given that the Dodgers have an outfield conundrum as well, though, that’s unlikely to happen.

Such matters can be resolved later, though. In many ways, a Lee-Kemp swap makes a ton of sense. But will it happen? Probably not, unless Phillies and Dodgers general managers Ruben Amaro Jr. and Ned Colletti get creative. But given that Prince Fielder and Ian Kinsler were traded for one another this offseason, nothing can be ruled out.

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The most common thought of the week—I know because I’ve said it, wrote it, texted it and tweeted it myself—is how there won’t be much left for teams to do at next week’s winter meetings because everything has already happened.

That, of course, isn’t true. It just seems that way after 25 free agents signed major league contracts this week while eight trades were made involving 23 players, according to MLBDepthCharts.com’s Transaction Tracker. 

In reality, there is still plenty that could occur and several teams haven’t even made their first move yet. Others that have been busy aren’t anywhere near finished making over their roster. And in a setting where general managers can meet face-to-face with fellow general managers, free-agent players and their agents, things tend to happen at a much more rapid pace.  

That setting is Orlando, Florida, home of this year’s winter meetings. Beginning on Monday, December 9, all 30 organizations will be represented heavily by front-office personnel and anyone else involved in making key decisions. By Thursday, most will head out of town and several players will have changed teams. 

Here are five teams to keep an eye on, either because they’re likely to be one of the most active in pursuing impact talent and/or because they have impact talent to trade. 

1. Arizona Diamondbacks (Buyer)

General manager Kevin Towers has yet to add any talent to his big league roster this offseason, but he did clear up some space in a crowded bullpen and freed up $5 million from his payroll when he traded Heath Bell to the Rays. And he could be gearing up to make a splash next week in Orlando.

With reports that Towers is shopping for a power bat—Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that they were in discussions with the A’s on a potential deal that would’ve landed them Yoenis Cespedes; Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic wrote that they made a strong push for Carlos Beltran before he signed with the Yankees—and/or an ace starter, as was reported by Jerry Crasnick of ESPN, it would be a surprise if the D’backs went home empty-handed. 

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (Buyer/Seller)

The Dodgers have been quiet, making just two notable roster moves thus far. Bringing back veteran reliever Brian Wilson to set up for closer Kenley Jansen and Dan Haren to fill out the back of the rotation has cost the Dodgers a total of $20 million (each is guaranteed $10 million for 2014).

They’re capable of much more, although general manager Ned Colletti could be more focused on trading one of his outfielders. 

Next week could be his best chance to gauge interest in his trio of outfielders that he’s willing to trade—Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp (pictured). Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported last month that the Dodgers were willing to listen to offers on all three.

Kemp would be the biggest catch and his agent, former big league pitcher Dave Stewart, told Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston that he has a “strong feeling something could happen” involving his client in Orlando next week. Nick Cafardo wrote last month that the Red Sox had inquired on Kemp as a possible replacement for Jacoby Ellsbury, who signed with the Yankees.

With Carlos Beltran, Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson all coming off of the free-agent board in recent days, teams could be more focused on adding outfield help through trades. If Shin-Soo Choo signs over the weekend or early next week, Colletti might be the most popular man around the hotel lobby for the remainder of the meetings.

3. New York Yankees (Buyer)

Carlos Beltran. Jacoby Ellsbury. Hiroki Kuroda. Brian McCann. What an amazing start to the offseason for the Yankees! But they’re not done. At least they better not be. They still have an infield spot to fill, as well as a starting pitcher and at least one late-inning reliever to add before we can declare them playoff contenders once again. 

Free agency is still the likely route for general manager Brian Cashman, although the addition of Beltran and Ellsbury could make Brett Gardner expendable. 

They could also wait for Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka to be posted, although there is no guarantee that his team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles, will make him available this year, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. Instead, they could focus their attention on one of the top three free-agent starters, Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana, all who are still available. 

4. Seattle Mariners (Buyer)

The Mariners made a huge statement when they agreed to sign star second baseman Robinson Cano to a ten-year, $240 million deal early Friday—the news was first reported by Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes. But they weren’t one superstar player away from being legitimate contenders in the AL West. 

And general manager Jack Zduriencik knows that, which is why the M’s are still expected to make news this offseason in free agency, the trade market or both. Acquiring ace starter David Price would be another step in the right direction and the M’s think they have the package of players to make a deal happen, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports. 

Even if they don’t land Price, the fact that he’s on their radar shows that the M’s aren’t close to being finished in their quest to build a contender for 2014. 

5. Tampa Bay Rays (Buyer/Seller)

The Rays would very likely trade ace David Price (pictured) in the right deal and 17-of-21 front-office personnel surveyed by ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick last month think that he’ll be traded. Whether it happens or not, expect this to be the No. 1 topic next week in Orlando.

The Rays are also shopping for a first baseman and they’re interested in re-signing James Loney, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. They could also acquire their next first baseman in a deal for Price or in a smaller deal involving one of a handful of players around the league that could be available, including Ike Davis, Mitch Moreland or Logan Morrison, who the Marlins are willing to listen to offers on, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. 

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It shouldn’t be surprising that the Boston Red Sox are expressing interest in the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ Matt Kemp as has been reported by the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo.

Kemp is an excellent player when healthy, and Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington should be kicking the tires on any above-average player in MLB this winter. It never hurts to talk with anyone, especially when it is a player with Kemp’s skills. 

The 29-year-old Kemp has struggled to stay on the field the past two seasons, playing in only 179 of a potential 322 games and is coming off a season where he had ankle surgery that caused him to miss the playoffs this past season, as detailed by Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

Kemp will also have to deal with a shoulder issue the entire winter, as discussed by B/R’s Rob Goldberg. It is an injury history that should give any team pause, especially the Red Sox. 

If the Red Sox do not re-sign Jacoby Ellsbury this winter, part of the reason will obviously be the money involved for the star outfielder but also concerns over Ellsbury’s injury history and ability to stay on the field over the course of a six- or seven-year deal. 

What would be surprising is if the Red Sox readily took back the remaining six years and close to $130 million remaining on Kemp’s contract. The Red Sox are in a perfect position right now, with very little in the way of long-term commitments on their payroll. 

Boston’s approach of signing veterans to short-term contracts and avoiding the big dollars for free agents proved to be an excellent strategy last year, resulting in a World Series title in 2013. It is a blueprint that is likely to be copied by other teams because it is becoming clear that long-term contracts have too much risk attached. 

Kemp could bring power to the Red Sox offense, looking at his career slash line of .293/.350/.493 in eight seasons with the Dodgers. In that time, Kemp has been an excellent player who has had one MVP-type season in 2011, but he has struggled to repeat those numbers since, mostly due to injury. 

If the Dodgers were willing to send $30 to $40 million back to Boston with Kemp, I’m sure that Boston would be all ears. Maybe the Dodgers would be motivated to do that in order to pursue a player like Robinson Cano this winter, especially if there is a soft market for Cano due to his price.

Boston could benefit from making a trade for Kemp, but they would have to be convinced that his injuries will be healed by Opening Day and that they are not an indication of a player who is starting to breakdown physically before the age of 30.

The Red Sox have the pitching and prospects to trade, but it would be somewhat ironic if Boston was the team taking on the big contract this time. 

Stats are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless noted otherwise. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The MLB offseason has only been going on for a few weeks, but it’s already been quite a busy one in 2013, as rumors about a number of big players continue to come up.

Several big players have already been traded this offseason.  Prince Fielder was traded to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Ian Kinsler, who is now a member of the Detroit Tigers, according to Richard Durrett from ESPN.com.  Jerry Crasnick from ESPN.com also reported that David Freese had been traded to the Los Angeles Angels.

With a number of big-time free agents looking to get huge contracts and star players likely to be traded, let’s go ahead and take a look at some of the most recent rumors surrounding key names in the MLB.

Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Free Agent

In his first season with the Cincinnati Reds, it’s safe to say that Shin-Soo Choo was a productive player.  Now that his contract has expired and he’s a free agent, other teams have started to take a look at him.

It appears that the Tigers are one of those teams that would be interested in Choo.  According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, several evaluators believe that the 31-year-old will play in Detroit and move to left field.

By bringing in Choo, the Tigers would have a solid outfield that would include him, Austin Jackson and Torii Hunter.  While the move to left field could be a bit awkward, his value on offense makes him well worth it.

Choo had arguably the best season of his career in 2013.  He finished the year hitting .285 with an on-base percentage of .423 while scoring 107 runs and driving in 54 more.  He could certainly come in and be the leadoff hitter, allowing Kinsler to come in and hit just behind him.

With how well Choo played last season, he’s likely to get a pretty sizable contract, and it looks like the Tigers might be willing to give it to him.

Carlos Beltran, OF, Free Agent

After a strong regular season and an even more impressive postseason, veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran is now a free agent.  He may be getting up there in terms of age, but he still has quite a bit left in the tank, and a number of teams are in talks with him.

One team in particular that’s interested in Beltran is the Boston Red Sox.  According to Scott Lauber from the Boston Herald, the two sides are engaged in talks, saying:

According to a major league source, the Sox have had “serious dialogue” with outfielder Carlos Beltran, though indications are that the sides are nowhere close to a deal. The eight-time All-Star could fill a need in the outfield in case Jacoby Ellsbury signs elsewhere and in the middle of the order if Mike Napoli should leave.

Beltran would certainly be an interesting player to add, as he would be moving from the St. Louis Cardinals to the team that beat them in the World Series.  He had a great run in 2013, hitting .296/.339/.491 in the regular season and was named an All-Star for the eighth time in his career.

The biggest concern for the Red Sox is that Beltran will likely be asking for a longer deal.  He’s currently 36 years old, and he could be asking for a contract that lasts until he’s over 40.

Still, with how well Beltran played this past season, the Red Sox would be smart to sign him if the price is right, because he’s shown that he can still play at a very high level.

Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers had to be frustrated seeing Matt Kemp sit out so much in 2013, as he only played in 73 games.  While he’s still a terrific player, there’s a chance that the Dodgers trade him away.

According to Nick Cafardo from Boston.com, the Red Sox have inquired about bringing in Kemp, with the report saying:

The Red Sox are one of several teams who have made inquiries on Dodgers centerfielder Matt Kemp according to a major league source. The Red Sox have probably made a few dozen of these types of calls on trades and free-agents, but Kemp is certainly intriguing.

The Dodgers, according to the source, have not been shopping Kemp, but teams have inquired. The Dodgers were reportedly recently in trade talks with the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners.

With the possibility of Jacoby Ellsbury signing somewhere else, the Red Sox are likely keeping their options open to add some talent to their outfield.  While he’s only played in 179 games over the past two seasons, Kemp is still an incredibly productive player, hitting .293/.350/.493 with 157 home runs and 162 stolen bases during his eight-year career.

Kemp’s contract is what could keep him from being traded, as it is certainly a big one.  According to Spotrac, Kemp is due $127.5 million over the next six years, making this a very big investment for any team looking to trade for him.

These two teams are quite familiar with each other, as the Red Sox sent off Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett last year, and that could make this trade involving Kemp possible.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com