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With the recent news that closer Kenley Jansen will be out for two or three months, the Los Angeles Dodgers will have a new back of the bullpen for the first part of the season. There are a few different potential replacements currently on the Dodger roster: Joel Peralta, Yimi Garcia, and Dustin McGowan.

Those three seem the most likely because of their combination of track record and pure stuff. Typically, closers throw hard and strike batters out, and each of those three has the potential to do that.

Joel Peralta, 5 Percent

Peralta is the most established member of the Dodger bullpen. He will be 39 years old on Opening Day, and he has filled in as a closer before as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. He has 12 career saves, and he still throws really hard, as you can see from this chart from BrooksBaseball.

He seems to be the most likely option to get the first shot because he has virtually no platoon split and he will slot in at the back end of the bullpen anyway. It would be a seamless transition to bump him back to the eighth inning when Jansen comes back.

Yimi Garcia, 2 Percent

Garcia is at the opposite end of the experience spectrum and isn’t seen as an elite reliever prospect given his lack of incredible strikeout potential. His career strikeout rate in the minor leagues is 10.8 per nine innings, which would have ranked around 30th in the majors last year. However, he was a closer in the lower minors early in his career, and he accumulated 36 saves across 2012 and 2013. Because of that track record and experience in the ninth inning, he could get a shot—although that is unlikely given his youth.

Dustin McGowan, 1 Percent

McGowan is probably a long shot, but he certainly has closer potential. He was a mediocre starter who missed a couple of years with injury, but the Dodgers signed him as a reliever. He has never put up elite numbers, but his stats as a reliever are better than as a starter. Additionally, he still has excellent velocity so could be a dark-horse candidate if Peralta or others fail in the job. However, he would have to perform at a level above what we have seen him do.

Others, 1 Percent

There are a few other potential options that have late-game experience. Paco Rodriguez was excellent in 2013 but barely appeared in 2014, so he is a long shot. Brandon League has 74 career saves but has essentially turned into a platoon reliever unable to get lefties out. J.P. Howell was quite good for much of 2014 but then faded down the stretch, so others will likely get a chance before he does. The further down the list we go, the less likely it is that any individual pitcher keeps the job over even the others on this list, let alone Jansen.

Jansen, 90-plus Percent

Ultimately, though, the only way anyone other than Jansen is the closer by midseason is if he cannot get back on the mound. The big righty from Curacao is one of the best relievers in all of baseball, and he should be reinstalled as the closer as soon as he gets back. However, the scary nature of this surgery—two or three months for a foot injury is worrisome—makes it difficult to rely on the listed timetable.

Jansen is a great pitcher. He has the third-highest strikeout rate and third-best xFIP among all relievers over the last five years. His dominance cannot be overstated, and so there is no performance from any of his potential replacements that would result in him losing his job.

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Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Kenley Jansen looks set to miss the remainder of spring training after having surgery on his left foot.

The Dodgers released the following press release, via Jon Weisman of the MLBlogs Network:

This morning at Cedars-Sinai in Los Angeles, Dodger pitcher Kenley Jansen underwent surgery to remove a growth from a bone in his left foot. This was discovered when Kenley reported discomfort while running last week. A subsequent X-Ray, MRI and CT scan showed the problem in the 5th metatarsal of his left foot.  The surgery was performed by Drs. Earl Brien and David Thordarson under the direction of Dr. Neal Elattrache.

Jansen will be on crutches for about 10 days and then a boot for 3-4 weeks. How he progresses during the rehab process will determine his return to competition, but it is expected to be approximately 8-12 weeks.

Jansen solidified himself as an excellent closer last season, finishing the season 2-3 with 44 saves, a 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 65.1 innings pitched. His strikeout rate was particularly impressive, per ESPN Stats & Information:

With the possibility that Jansen could miss the opening of the season, the Dodgers may be in the market to add some depth to the bullpen. While Jansen should recover and resume his role as the team’s closer without missing too much of the regular season, the Dodgers also need to set up a contingency plan for the first month or two, depending on his recovery. 

Jansen will be expected to come back and reestablish himself as one of the National League’s best closers. In the interim, however, the Dodgers would be wise to explore ways to improve the bullpen.

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Shortly after creating MLBDepthCharts.com, I quickly realized just how important it was for fantasy baseball players to find the guy who was “next in line” for saves. Even if it’s just to give the regular closer a break after a few consecutive days of work, saves are valuable for fantasy geeks. 

A closer’s job is rarely on solid ground from one game to the next. Despite what else happens throughout the game, a blown save is not something that’s taken lightly in the media or by fans because it’s almost always directly correlated with the final result of the game. 

Even the best closers in the game will be scrutinized if they blow three or four saves in a month. If you’re not the best closer in the game and you blow a save or two over the span of a few games, the pressure builds as the next unsuccessful opportunity could be the last. 

Take a look at the Washington Nationals’ 2012 season. Brad Lidge and Henry Rodriguez shared the closer’s gig to the start the season with Drew Storen on the disabled list. The hard-throwing Rodriguez took over the job on his own after Lidge landed on the disabled list in late April. 

Less than a month later, Rodriguez was removed from the role after a string of shaky outings and manager Davey Johnson said he would go with a closer-by-committee, which never happened. Tyler Clippard got the first shot and then didn’t relinquish the role until Drew Storen returned from the disabled list and shared saves with him the rest of the way. 

Injuries and ineffectiveness will occur, as I’ve shown with one extreme example from 2012. So it’s important to have the right guy on your team at the right time. Here are several relievers not projected to close that could either “vulture” some saves throughout the year or eventually take over the closer’s role if the opportunity presented itself … 

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Despite everything seemingly going wrong for the National League wild-card contenders, the Los Angeles Dodgers got some much-needed great news on Friday.

Closer Kenley Jansen, who is currently out of action due a heart condition, is off blood thinners and will return to the team on Tuesday, according to the Los Angeles Times’ Dylan Hernandez.

Kenley Jansen off blood thinners, will return Tuesday.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) September 14, 2012

This news couldn’t come at a better time for the Dodgers, who are losers of four straight games, and now sit two games out of the last National League Wild Card spot heading into Friday night’s home tilt with the St. Louis Cardinals. 

Jansen had been out since late August, and this was the second time in his career he has missed time due to the condition. The flamethrower first noticed an irregular heartbeat midway through last season and missed a month of action to regulate the condition. 

In just his second season in the majors, Jansen has flourished since taking over the closer role from Javy Guerra full-time in May. Though he has struggled with command this year, the 24-year-old has racked up 25 saves in 31 chances and has an astounding 86 strikeouts in 56.2 innings.

The team mostly used midseason acquisition Brandon League in Jansen’s absence, though Ronald Belisario also got recorded a save.

For the Dodgers, this will allow manager Don Mattingly to give his bullpen a sense of normalcy. League will likely return to an eighth-inning role as Jansen takes back over the closer duties.

With the scary situation under control, this will hopefully be the last time this condition pops up for Jansen.

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It is Jonathan Papelbon, not Cliff Lee, whom the Phillies should be trying to move via waiver trade this month.

All indications now are that Lee is not going anywhere in 2012.  ESPN has reported that waivers on Lee expired over the weekend, and CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman tweeted today that the Los Angeles Dodgers were one of the teams that Lee could block a trade to.

But the Phillies are still eleven games under .500 and on a slow boat to nowhere with a little more than a month and a half to go.  This is not a time for the front office to idly count days passing.  This is a time for creativity, and action. 

The “trade deadline” has passed, but teams are still able to make deals.  The complication for the Phillies in trading Papelbon now (and for any trading partner) would be that Papelbon must clear waivers.  Explanations of the waiver trade process are abundant—a good one was provided recently by FoxSports.com.

Why trade Papelbon?  It is not his fault that his team has not had as many wins to save as anyone expected.  His numbers—3-4, 3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 24 saves, three blown saves—are in line with expectations given career marks of 26-23, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 243 saves and 32 blown saves.

Which is exactly why the Phillies should try to move Papelbon, now.

It is patently obvious that the forces that convinced the Phillies to sign Papelbon to a four-year, $50M contract this past offseason have proven ephemeral.

Papelbon’s signing, while costly, was justifiable under the assumption that the pitching-rich, hitting-challenged Phillies would be playing a lot of close games and would have many slim leads to protect.

Unfortunately, the hitting turned out to be not just challenged, but largely non-existent—as of this writing, the Phillies are 19th in Major League Baseball in both runs scored and slugging percentage, and they are 21st in on-base percentage.  That kind of production will not normally keep a closer busy…

…unless he is being asked to pitch in non-save situations, which Papelbon has done seventeen times so far in 2012.

The Phillies will need to be open to the idea of paying at least some of Papelbon’s contract if they hope to move him.  But while the idea of paying someone not to pitch for you is never appealing, the truth is that the Phillies as presently constituted are simply not the sort of team that can justify holding onto an eight-figure closer.  The sellout streak is over, you know.

Fortunately for the Phillies, there are some teams with serious postseason hopes, deep pockets…and iffy closer situations.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have settled on Ernesto Frieri as their closer, whose performance thus far has been spectacular.  But he got the job on May 23.  He was in San Diego to start the season.  Is that who the Angels want to take the ball with a playoff series on the line?

The Los Angeles Dodgers have tabbed Kenley Jansen to close their games.  But he has six blown saves so far, compared to 21 games saved.  The Dodgers have made it clear that they will be aggressive and will spend money.  They could decide that Papelbon is the last piece of the puzzle in 2012.

And the Detroit Tigers have walked the high wire with Jose Valverde closing games.  He has 21 saves against four blown saves…but his ERA is 3.63, and he has only 33 strikeouts against 20 walks.  Surely the Tigers would feel more confident giving the ball to Papelbon in a big spot.

At some level, it almost seems unfair to be targeting Papelbon as a player to move.  Like Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino before him, Papelbon would thus be punished for the shortcomings of his teammates, despite having a representative season in his own right.

But if the Phillies are serious about freeing up money to build around Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay in 2013, the time to slip out of the knot that is Papelbon’s contract is now.

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