Tag: Justin Upton

Seattle Mariners: How to Acquire Matt Kemp, Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes

The Seattle Mariners need a cleanup hitter. What position that hitter plays remains to be seen. The club was reportedly interested in shortstop Hanley Ramirez, but it lost out on the former Dodger when he signed with the Red Sox.

With Pablo Sandoval and Yasmany Tomas also off the board, the number of chairs is dwindling. The music isn’t close to ending, but the M’s list of potential targets is shrinking.

Seattle’s need for a middle-of-the-order bat happily coincides with the team’s need for a corner outfielder. The corner outfield spots are generally regarded as traditional power positions (and luckily for the M’s there are numerous possibilities).

Matt Kemp’s name has been trade-rumor fodder for months—if not the last year—due to a hefty contract, a slight decline in play and an overcrowded Dodger outfield.

Another trade option is Atlanta outfielder Justin Upton. The former Diamondback reportedly removed the M’s from his no-trade list, and Atlanta could be open to trading its star outfielder after sending Jason Heyward to St. Louis.

Seattle previously attempted to acquire Upton while he was in Arizona, but the outfielder vetoed a deal that would have involved Taijuan Walker and Nick Franklin (among others), per Larry Stone of The Seattle Times.

Like Kemp, Boston outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is part of an overcrowded outfield and could conceivably be dealt.

Should one of those three (or another trade target of their ilk) be acquired, he won’t come cheap. Each one of the three previously mentioned players comes from a team with specific needs.

 

Matt Kemp

Any trade conversation between the M’s and Dodgers must start with Los Angeles eating a majority of Kemp’s salary. While still a productive player, Kemp is not the player he was in 2011 when he finished runner-up in the MVP voting. The outfielder hit a good-but-not-great .287 last season.

As mentioned, the Dodgers lost Hanley Ramirez to Boston and thus are without a shortstop. The Mariners have two of these in youngsters Brad Miller and Chris Taylor. It’s unclear if Los Angeles would be interested in either. Surely it has a need at the position, but the two have only played in a combined 246 games. That kind of experience at a crucial position isn’t ideal for a team with major championship aspirations.

Los Angeles’ other glaring need is that of a starting pitcher. Former Colorado swing-man Juan Nicasio is slated to be the fifth starter in a rotation that features, among others, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Nicasio posted a 5.38 ERA in 33 appearances (14 of which were starts) for Colorado in 2014. His career ERA is a smidgen smaller at 5.03.

Unless Nicasio posts improved numbers, the team will need better quality and pitching.

Seattle has plenty of intriguing prospects in its system, such as Tyler Pike and Danny Hultzen. However, with the Dodgers in need of pitching now, Roenis Elias could be in play. The rookie starter made the jump to the majors in 2014 and put up 10 wins and a 3.85 in 29 starts.

A package of Miller and Elias for Kemp and a lower-level prospect could get the deal done. The Dodgers will have to eat a good portion of Kemp’s salary in the swap, but the acquisition of two young players like Miller and Elias would probably mean the inclusion of a minor prospect on Los Angles’ part to even things out.

 

Justin Upton

While similar in terms of what they could provide the Mariners with, Upton and Kemp are very different in other areas—mainly age and salary. Upton is 27 to Kemp’s 30. In addition, Upton’s contract expires after 2015, while Kemp’s runs through 2019.

Judging by Upton’s comparatively favorable numbers—and the high price the Cardinals paid to acquire Jason Heyward—it certainly wouldn’t be surprising if the M’s had to pay a high price for Upton.

While not the same player he was when the M’s attempted to acquire him previously, Upton is still a player who can provide 30 home runs, 100 runs driven in and passable defense in the outfield.

Upton vetoed a previous deal to Seattle in which the Mariners would have parted with Nick Franklin, Charlie Furbush, Stephen Pryor and one of Taijuan Walker, James Paxton or Danny Hultzen.

The Mariners won’t have to give up nearly as much to acquire Upton this time around, but they’ll likely have to part with something of value.

The Braves, like the Dodgers, could use starting pitching. Even after acquiring Shelby Miller in the Heyward swap, the team could use extra starters. Aaron Harang and Ervin Santana could leave in free agency (and Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy are recovering from Tommy John surgery).

To acquire Upton, one of either James Paxton or Taijuan Walker is likely forfeit. Losing either of the two would hurt, but given the strength of the M’s pitching and dire need of a cleanup hitter, they could weather the loss.

Atlanta will also be in the market for a new outfielder if the team deals Upton, especially after dealing fellow outfielder Heyward for two pitchers. The M’s could offer Dustin Ackley or Michael Saunders in return. Saunders is rumored to be on the trade block.

In addition, Brad Miller could be used as additional trade bait. Atlanta could play him at second—until top prospect Jose Peraza is ready—and then slide Miller to third base long-term to take over for the aging Chris Johnson.

Upton will hit free agency after 2015, but the fact that he took the Mariners off of his trade list (which was the catching point in the 2013 deal not coming to fruition) suggests he’d be willing to play for the team. Should the M’s make the playoffs and/or make a deep run in 2015, Upton may be more inclined to stay than bolt when his contract expires.

 

Yoenis Cespedes

Thanks to a bevy of roster moves, Cespedes finds himself in an overcrowded Red Sox outfield that also features Rusney Castillo, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brock Holt, Daniel Nava, Allen Craig and Shane Victorino.

The same quality depth cannot be found in the Red Sox’s rotation. Clay Buchholz is the veteran presence and ace. Meanwhile, spots two through five will be filled by some combination of Joe Kelly, Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Anthony Ranaudo and Brandon Workman.

Because of this, one of Seattle’s starting pitchers will surely be involved in any potential trade. A straight swap of Walker or Paxton for Cespedes is plausible, but Cespedes has his warts and, like Upton, is a free agent after 2015.

Cespedes can hit for power—that much is certain—but he is far less of a complete player than someone like Upton or even Kemp. In any deal, Seattle’s brass has to accept the fact that Cespedes has warts—Cespedes’ OPS in 2014 was .751, just above Logan Morrison’s .735 number.

The former Athletics slugger’s numbers don’t suggest he is a player who commands a massive return, but given Boston’s depth in the outfield and its need of starting pitching, the Red Sox won’t just give him away. They’ll want the max return for their power-hitting outfielder.

He may not be the most hand-in-glove fit for the M’s, but Cespedes would cost one of Walker, Paxton or Hisashi Iwakuma. Losing any of the three would be a massive loss for Seattle, but that would likely be the cost of trading.

Whether it is Matt Kemp, Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes, the Mariners will be losing some valuable assets via trade. It’s the sad reality of the situation, but another reality is that if the M’s want to make a run in the playoffs in 2015, they’ll need a cleanup hitter.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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What Is Braves All-Star Justin Upton’s True Trade Value on Winter Market?

If you think the Atlanta Braves did well in the Jason Heyward trade, just wait until you see how they do in the Justin Upton trade.

Or so they hope, anyway.

Though the Braves no longer have a surplus of outfielders after dealing Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals, word is they’re shopping Upton anyway. A rival executive even went so far as to tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post“Justin Upton will be moved.”

This is apparently because they think their 27-year-old left fielder can net an impressive return.

“The Braves are very much shopping Justin Upton and are requesting a higher return than they received earlier this week when they dealt their other corner outfielder, Jason Heyward.”

The key words are “a higher return.” In light of what the Braves got for Heyward, that’s saying something.

For the 25-year-old right fielder and hard-throwing reliever Jordan Walden, the Braves snagged right-handed starter Shelby Miller and pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins. Like that, the Braves landed a solid mix of talent and controllability.

Though Miller comes to Atlanta with things to work out, he also comes with good stuff, a 3.41 ERA in two seasons as a full-time starter and four years of club control. Factor in the six years of club control Jenkins will have if/when he reaches the majors, and the Braves turned one year of the free-agent-to-be Heyward and two years of Walden into 10 years of pitching.

Of course, we don’t know how the inclusion of Walden altered the deal. But if it’s a fair guess that the trade was Heyward for Miller straight up with Walden and Jenkins as deal-sweeteners, then an Upton deal would have to net a player with more talent and/or more controllability than Miller has.

That, indeed, is asking a lot. So let’s get to the big question: Is Upton worth that much?

One thing that’s convenient is that, like Heyward, Upton also only has one year to go before free agency. We’re not weighing two or three years of his services against one year of Heyward’s.

But we do know that Upton is a couple of years older than Heyward. We also know he’s going to cost more in 2015. Where Heyward is owed $8.3 million, Upton is owed a little over $14.5 million. That’s a $6 million difference, which is not small.

Which makes the big question a simple question: Is Upton that much better than Heyward?

Let’s start with a look at what the two have done over the last two seasons, a sample size that includes only Upton’s time with the Braves and neither his nor Heyward’s best seasons.

All will be explained, but for now just note that this is enough to get a sense of how talented they are as offensive and defensive contributors, courtesy of FanGraphs:

One’s eyes drift to the WAR column, which is convincing that Heyward has been the better player over the last two seasons. This despite the fact he missed a good chunk of action in 2013 with freak injuries—an appendectomy and a beanball to the face—which makes it even more impressive.

The main reason why is easy to spot. The “Def” column is for defensive value, and it’s no surprise to see Heyward way ahead of Upton. He’s probably not that bad, but Heyward really is that good.

But since this defensive component is based off defensive metrics, it can’t be taken as gospel. The question of whether Heyward’s defensive edge makes up for Upton’s clear offensive edge is worth asking.

To this end, Upton’s offensive edge is mainly a power-oriented edge, as he’s slugged more homers and racked up a notably higher slugging percentage than Heyward. But his baserunning has also been a factor, as “BsR” (baserunning runs) favors him, despite Heyward’s lead in stolen bases.

But at the same time, it’s a stretch to say that Upton has a massive offensive edge over Heyward. 

Heyward’s average and OBP say he’s been right there with Upton from a consistency perspective. That’s not a small deal, and one can also get picky and argue that Heyward’s baserunning is better than his 2013-2014 BsR indicates. He’s been easily Atlanta’s top baserunner since 2011, per FanGraphs.

All told, it comes down to this: The one thing Upton really has on Heyward is a power advantage. And while it’s big, it’s not quite big enough to overrule Heyward’s huge advantage as a defensive player.

So I agree with Dave Cameron of FanGraphs that Upton shouldn’t be worth more than Heyward in a trade, as that would mean paying a bigger price for an older, more expensive and not clearly better player.

However, Cameron may be onto something with this:

“If the Braves can turn Justin Upton into another version of the Shelby Miller package, they should be pretty happy about it.”

In other words, maybe the Braves can turn Upton’s seemingly lesser trade value into an equal trade package. It sounds counterintuitive, but it could definitely happen.

Here’s a hint why:

You just witnessed Upton’s raw power. It’s huge. Huger, even, than his power production indicates.

And that it comes from the right side of the plate is the kicker.

The lack of right-handed power in today’s MLB has been referenced so much at this point that it’s not really a dirty little secret anymore. And it’s not overblown, either. The number of righty hitters with at least 25 homers dropped dramatically in 2013 and fell to its lowest point in 20 years in 2014.

Upton’s brand of power is thus a rare brand of power. And while there’s some potential 25-homer right-handed power available on the open market, it comes with strings attached:

  • Nelson Cruz: He hit 40 bombs in 2014, but he’s headed for his age-34 season and is an inferior hitter, baserunner and defender next to Upton.
  • Hanley Ramirez: He owns a .500 career slugging percentage but is headed for his age-31 season and is a lesser defender and more injury-prone than Upton.
  • Yasmany Tomas: Ben Badler of Baseball America says the Cuban slugger has “70 raw power,” but he’s obviously unproven and also comes with hit-tool and defense question marks.

None of these guys are going to come cheap, either. It’s easy to imagine Cruz costing as much as $50 million, and Ramirez and Tomas could go for as much as $100 million.

Point being: If a team is looking for a right-handed power hitter, it makes sense to spring for Upton than for one of the free agents who can offer it.

Another thing worth mentioning as something that could force a team’s hand with Upton: I’ll wager he gives off more of a final-puzzle-piece vibe than Heyward does.

Whereas Heyward can strengthen a defense and deepen a lineup, Upton can complete a lineup without hurting a defense. That may not be as valuable on paper, but it’s something that could push a team from “World Series contender” to “World Series favorite.”

The argument that Upton isn’t as good as Heyward is sound. Take that and combine it with his age and more expensive 2015 salary, and his trade value shouldn’t be as high for the Braves as Heyward’s was.

But if the Braves trade Upton, it would not be surprising if they got a package roughly equivalent to the one they got for Heyward. Though it would technically be an overpay, it would be the rare smart overpay.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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MLB Rumors: Breaking Down Trade Buzz for Justin Upton, Nick Swisher and More

You can feel the urgency between Major League Baseball teams and players picking up each day. There’s been a pattern in recent years where it took months for deals and trades to happen. That hasn’t been the case so far this offseason, which leads to more excitement and unpredictability. 

While the huge dominoes, such as Jon Lester and Max Scherzer, aren’t likely to fall until the winter meetings in December, there are big moves being talked about that can reshape everything that happens this offseason. All it takes is one surprise contract or unexpected trade to force someone else into action. 

It’s also possible that a lot of what’s being talked about right now is purely smoke. While that may end up being the case, it’s still fun to look at the possibilities of what could happen. 

Here are the latest trade rumors that you should be paying close attention to. 

 

Braves Not Done Dealing Outfielders

In what is shaping up to be a busy offseason for the Atlanta Braves, the franchise may not be ready to go into 2015 with an outfield of B.J. Upton, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis

According to Andy Martino of The New York Daily News, Gattis and Justin Upton are generating interest from other teams:

In an age of scarce offense, Upton’s skills are rare and highly valuable. And the teams calling Atlanta about him are seeing that the price will be much higher than what the Braves extracted from St. Louis for Heyward.

Evan Gattis, who tied for 18th in the N.L. this year with 22 homers, is also available in the right deal, teams say — with a price that is also set by the dearth of power in the game.

One thing that does stand out in Martino’s report is the phrase “right deal.” Every player is available in the right deal. It’s a vague, generic term, though it isn’t completely without merit in this case because the Braves are looking past next season after trading Jason Heyward to St. Louis. 

It’s also interesting that the Braves are apparently putting a higher price on Upton when you consider these stats from Ace of MLB Stats:

Upton doesn’t come with more control than Heyward, as his contract also expires at the end of 2015. The obvious difference is Upton has hit 56 homers with a .478 slugging percentage in two years with the Braves. Heyward has hit 25 homers and slugged .401 over that same span, per FanGraphs

As valuable as Heyward is thanks to his defense and on-base skills, Upton’s best gift is his ability to hit the ball over the fence. In this era of declining offense, power is more valuable than it’s ever been. Giancarlo Stanton’s new contract can attest to that.

The Braves got one pitcher who has four years of MLB control (Shelby Miller) and a prospect in Tyrell Jenkins who will be under control for six years if and when he gets to The Show. That’s high value considering Heyward is a free agent after the season. 

If Atlanta’s front office thinks it can do better than that for Upton, with more teams valuing the low cost of prospects and young players than ever, the All-Star outfielder will likely remain with the team at the start of 2015. 

 

Nick Swisher on His Way out, Bro?

Two years ago, the Cleveland Indians made a splash in free agency by bringing former Ohio State star Nick Swisher back to his roots. His first year with the team was like a dream scenario, as the Indians surprised everyone by winning 92 games and made the playoffs as a wild card. 

Things came crashing down to earth for Swisher in 2014. He battled injuries most of the year and hit .208/.278/.331 in 97 games before being shut down in August following knee surgery. 

With Swisher’s value at an all-time low, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is reporting that the Indians may try to get creative if they are going to make any noise this offseason:

That seems like a foolish move, because what can the Indians realistically expect to get for a soon-to-be 34-year-old with two guaranteed years and $30 million left on his contract, per Baseball-Reference.com, coming off the worst season of his career?

Here’s where the creativity comes into it, as Rosenthal speculated about other players with bad contracts who could potentially be moved:

It’s not a pretty group of players to look at. For the Indians, the only one who could be of interest is Ubaldo Jimenez because they know him well. He also had some success in 2013, though most of that came in the second half (1.82 ERA), and he was otherwise mediocre during his time in Cleveland. 

The Indians may not have the financial space to make any big moves this offseason, so keeping the door open to anything is smart. It just doesn’t seem viable to move Swisher at this point given the money he is owed and the possible return in a trade. 

 

Didi Gregorius a Shortstop Alternative

In a market where a lot of marquee teams could be in the market for a shortstop—including the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers—one cheap alternative could be Arizona’s Didi Gregorius. 

According to Rosenthal, teams are calling the Diamondbacks about the availability of Gregorius:

Gregorius has a lot of work to do with the bat if he’s ever going to be a long-term starter in the big leagues. He has a .682 OPS in 183 games with the Diamondbacks, who, according to ESPN.com’s Park Factors stats, play in one of the best offensive environments in baseball. 

If you put Gregorius in a worse offensive park, like Citi Field, imagine what the numbers could look like? However, the silver lining for any team with an interest in the 24-year-old is that he won’t cost a lot in terms of dollars. 

Gregorius isn’t eligible for arbitration until 2016, so he will make little more than the league minimum next year before seeing any spike in his salary. That could make it easier, in relative terms, to live with a bad hitting performance when you aren’t paying a player much money. 

Even though Gregorius hasn’t turned into the defender it seemed he would be as a prospect, FanGraphs‘ metrics have him roughly average to this point in his career with no defensive runs saved and 87 plays made out of his zone. 

Considering how bad Derek Jeter and Hanley Ramirez were at shortstop last season for the Yankees and Dodgers, respectively, getting an average glove at the most important defensive position would be like seeing the reincarnation of Ozzie Smith. 

The Diamondbacks don’t need Gregorius anymore, especially with Chris Owings returning and the general manager who acquired him (Kevin Towers) getting fired in September. So finding a trade partner for the young shortstop would be a smart move. 

 

Stats via Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter: @adamwells1985.

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Justin Upton Injury: Updates on Braves OF’s Hamstring and Return

The Atlanta Braves announced on Tuesday night that outfielder Justin Upton strained his left hamstring. He’s listed as day to day:

The two-time All-Star was removed after the first inning, making way for Jordan Schafer, per Kevin McAlpin of 680 The Fan in Atlanta:

Upton made the most of his short time on the field, singling in the top of the first and scoring the Braves’ third run of the game on a single by Tommy La Stella. That base hit upped his season average to .295, which is the highest among Atlanta’s regular starters. His 14 home runs and 36 RBI are also tops for the team.

The Braves have struggled offensively this season, so taking Upton’s bat out of the lineup will leave a major hole. Since he’s only day to day, his absence shouldn’t affect the team too much in the long run.

Atlanta came into the game tied with the Washington Nationals for the lead in the National League East, so that could change for as long as Upton is out.

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Offseason Moves Texas Rangers Should Have Made Going into 2013

The offseason that followed the 2012 season could have cured some of the problems the Texas Rangers have faced since the start of the 2013 campaign.

The club in Arlington seemed to be a front-runner to sign almost every high-profile free agent that winter, but nothing happened. More housekeeping was done—buying players they needed rather than wanted. For example, signing A.J. Pierzynski was arguably the best move the organization made that offseason, solidifying the weakest position on the team.

Looking back, the Rangers surely could have opened up the checkbook and now be in a different situation than they are. It is easy to speculate about what could have been at this point in time, but one can’t help but wonder if Texas would have closed on some of today’s premier players.

There are a few big names, in particular, that could have changed the course of the team’s recent struggles with pitching and injuries.

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2013 MLB All-Star Game: Comparing Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez

The 2013 MLB All-Star Game starting lineup revealing is set for 6:30 ET on Saturday. Some of the races are very close until the end, including the battle between Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Upton and Bryce Harper for two National League outfield spots. Gonzalez and Upton are two similar talents, and here we’re going to take a look at what makes them tick.

 

Batting

At the plate, both of these players instill some serious fear in opposing pitchers. Though he started off the season on a torrid pace, Upton has fallen off considerably since then, as Yankeesource explained the ugly truth:

Still, he remains an imposing figure in the batter’s box, and he has an impressive 48 walks to his credit.

When he was drafted first overall in the 2005 MLB draft, Upton was touted as a five-tool player. But at age 25, it seems that he is only scratching the surface of his potential. Through 81 games, he is batting only .248 with 38 RBI.

Gonzalez, on the other hand, has been a consistent performer at the plate throughout his tenure with the Rockies. For many years now, his critics have been sure to point out that Coors Field has been friendly to his statistics. However, this year is different.

Surprisingly enough, Gonzalez has hit .312 with 13 home runs on the road to his .280 and 11 homers at home. ESPN Stats & Info points out how impressive he has been this year:

 

Fielding

Though it’s often overlooked outside of the SportsCenter “Top 10 Plays,” fielding is a big part of baseball. Neither of these two players is a stranger to the highlight reel, though.

Statistically, Upton has made four errors this year and carries a DWAR of -1.0. Obviously, that doesn’t speak too highly of his defensive abilities, but he has some serious range and athleticism.

Here, Upton robs Pedro Alvarez of what could have been a home run:

And here, he makes a phenomenal diving catch to save multiple runs:

Gonzalez might not have the sheer athleticism of Upton, but he has some serious speed and two Gold Gloves to his name. So, despite what seems to be an advantage for Upton, Gonzalez only has three errors and a DWAR of 0.5.

Below, you can see him make a veteran’s play, in which he perfectly tracks the baseball to its landing point and makes a great leaping catch. It may not look as tough as Upton’s catches above, but it showcases his experience and instincts.

 

Baserunning

Both of these players are very quick on their feet, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to stolen bases. Upton may very well be the faster of the two, but he only has six steals on seven attempts. Gonzalez, however, has 15 steals and has only been caught once. 

These kind of little things are what separates a great player from a good player, and in the end that could be why Gonzalez edges out Upton on his way to another All-Star appearance.

Going in to the final week of voting, both had starting spots. But it is clear that “CarGo” is the more deserving of the two.

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Braves vs. Mets Video: Watch Ugly Collision Between Upton Brothers

The Upton brothers got a little too close for comfort on Tuesday night.

B.J. Upton and Justin Upton collided in left-centerfield on Tuesday night as the Atlanta Braves took on the New York Mets.

You can clearly see B.J. waving off his younger brother, but Justin didn’t hear him and the two collided right as B.J. makes the catch and hangs on.

The two were obviously just fine, as B.J. shoves his younger bro as the two walk off the field together, but I’m not sure Mrs. Upton will be so happy.

It’s one thing to see two players collide and joke about it, but how often do we see brothers do it?

Twitter had a bit of fun with the collision too:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s just hope that the two can learn how to share better in the future.

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Atlanta Braves: Grades for Every Player in April

The Atlanta Braves (16-9) have all but wrapped up the first month of the 2013 season.

Highs include a 10-game winning streak and a sweep of the National League East preseason favorite, Washington Nationals. The low point came over the weekend as the Detroit Tigers swept the Braves.The tough series with the Tigers knocked a few players’ grades down a letter.

Here’s a look at the April edition of every player’s’ grade in 2013.

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Can Justin Upton Break the Braves’ Single-Season Home Run Record in 2013?

Atlanta’s acquisition of Justin Upton seemed like a steal before Upton played an inning in their uniform. Through the first 12 games of the season, he’s done nothing to change that notion. In fact, he’s off to such a torrid start that it’s not out of the question to suggest a quest to break the franchise’s single-season home run record will be in play this summer for Atlanta’s left fielder.

While many would guess Henry Aaron, Chipper Jones or Dale Murphy as the current holder of the Braves‘ single-season home run record, it belongs to Andruw Jones, who launched 51 in 2005.

Through 12 games in Atlanta, Justin is on pace to shatter that mark. The former Diamondback has launched seven home runs, posted an unimaginable .891 slugging percentage and has amassed 41 total bases. While it’s obvious that he’ll cool off at some point, this could be the year that everything comes into place for the former No. 1 overall pick in the MLB Draft.

Despite “only” posting a career high of 31 home runs, Upton has the kind of swing, power and ability to reach the 50-home run plateau during his career. This season may represent the change of scenery, baseball maturity and natural progression needed for Upton to make the leap into superstardom.

If you only watched Upton in 2012, this outburst probably seems surprising. Due to a nagging thumb injury, and, if you believe the narratives, a lack of “grit,” Upton struggled in Arizona last summer. His .785 OPS made him look more like Lyle Overbay than the guy once compared to Ken Griffey Jr.

Of course, the down year in 2012 overshadowed his fourth-place finish in the 2011 NL MVP vote and Upton’s reputation as one of the best young players in the history of baseball.

Using Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index, we put Upton’s power numbers into context. Through his age-24 season, Upton’s 108 home runs rank 16th in the history of baseball. The names ahead of him include nine Cooperstown inductees and several others destined for the same fate. Those 15 players averaged 32 home runs a piece during their collective age-25 seasons, with several exceeding the 50-homer plateau.

It’s hard to say if Upton would be off to this same start in Arizona, but his contemporaries in the history of the game have either continued or exceeded their standards at this same age.

As he proves the naysayers wrong, focus on his power within the NL East this summer.

Throughout Upton’s young career, his power has been greater (.516 vs. .471 slugging percentage) against left-handed pitchers than righties.

The move to the NL East, given the current depth charts of the Marlins, Nationals, Mets and Phillies, give the indication that Upton will see a good amount of lefties through the summer. Of the 20 members of those respective rotations, eight are southpaws.

Last season, during Upton’s 17-homer campaign, he simply didn’t lift the ball in the air as often as he used to. Roughly 43.8 percent of his batted balls were grounders, the second highest rate of his career. For a guy who has the power to lift fly balls out of the park at an above-average rate, Upton needed to get the ball airborne at a more frequent pace. Early on in 2013, he’s doing just that, with a 52-32 FB/GB ratio.

Upton is healthy, under contract and playing for an organization that appreciates his immense talent. If the swing that wowed scouts in 2005 continues to haunt the National League, the sky is the limit for Atlanta’s left fielder, including more than 51 round-trippers in 2013.

How many home runs will Upton hit in 2013? Comment below, follow me on Twitter or “Llke” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball!

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Justin and B.J. Upton Homer in 9th Inning to Lead Braves Past Cubs

It’s pretty clear that the Chicago Cubs have bullpen issues. For the third-straight outing, closer Carlos Marmol struggled in relief and the Cubbies lost a heartbreaker, 6-5, to the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field.

Despite leading 5-1 heading into the last two innings, the Cubs bullpen imploded to give this one away. The collapse culminated in home runs off the bats of B.J. and Justin Upton in the bottom of the ninth.

Facing Marmol to lead off the inning, B.J. launched a solo shot to tie the game before Justin’s long ball gave the Braves the walk-off victory two batters later. The game-winner was Justin’s second home run of the night and capped a three-hit, three-RBI performance for the younger Upton brother. 

It was the first time this season the brothers have gone deep in the same game, but considering both of their power, it’s likely that this will happen more than a few times as the season progresses.

For the Cubs, Marmol was not the only reliever at fault in this one. Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa was just as bad in his one inning of work out of the bullpen, allowing three runs on four hits in the eighth inning.

Marmol and Fujikawa helped waste a strong outing from starter Carlos Villanueva, who lasted 6.2 innings and allowed only one run in his first start of the season.

Braves’ starter Julio Teheran was spared the loss despite allowing five runs and eight hits in five innings of work.

 

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