Kuzul

Last Night Rewind

• The limited slate of games last night did yield some solid performances from the Giants, who took over first place last night. Jonathan Sanchez struck out 12 in seven innings of work yesterday while allowing only one run on four hits. Better still, after walking seven in his last outing he did not walk a batter in last night’s game.
• Rodrigo Lopez has been up and down over the better part of the season, but he has looked solid in September. In his three starts, he has surrendered six runs in 19.1 innings of work and given up only just one home run. Lopez worked seven innings last night in getting the win over the Reds. He is a matchup play, but one that may be intriguing in the final weeks.
• In what has to be considered an interesting move at best, Chris Young will get the start for the Padres this weekend. Young will return from the DL after having surgery on his shoulder in August of last year. Young pitched well in his rehab outing last weekend, and the Padres are looking for any shot in the arm that they can get right now.
• Delmon Young had himself a strong game last night, recording three hits in five at-bats, while adding a home run and a couple RBI. His three hits helped raise his average up over .300 and the home run was his 18th of the year. This is also a guy that now has more than 100 RBI on the season. Not bad for a guys with an ADP over 200!
• Nyjer Morgan, unfortunately, had his suspension reduced to just one eight-game set. Morgan showed consistent immaturity in gaining those suspensions, and it is somewhat unfortunate that they made the move. Fantasy owners will likely lose him for the first part of the finals, and probably already have better and more reliable options available. More just an FYI.

Friday Notes

• A.J. Burnett is 2-2 against Baltimore this season, and the 2.48 ERA is one of his better numbers against any team this season. He took the loss against them the last time out, giving up four runs in seven innings. Brian Roberts has the best numbers against him, posting a .326 average. Only Adam Jones at .242 comes across as a player that you would normally start that could be avoided.
• The Yankees have killed Kevin Millwood this season. Millwood has gone 0-2 in three starts with a 7.56 ERA against them. In 16.2 innings against them, he has given up 25 hits and 14 runs, along with five home runs in those outings. Jorge Posada’s 5-for-21 is the only number to leave behind.
• The Blue Jays have a .312 average against John Lackey this season, and Lackey has ended up with a 7.71 ERA as a result. Adam Lind and Fred Lewis have put up the best numbers, with both hitting better than .450. Aaron Hill is only 3-for-21 and Vernon Wells is just 6-for-29.
• If there is a team that you want to avoid Felix Hernandez against, it would be the Rangers. Hernandez is 0-3 in four starts against them, putting up a 6.38, ERA and allowing four home runs in 24 innings of work. Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton are both below .200 against Hernandez, but the rest of the lineup has solid numbers.
• Jose Lopez is 10-for-18 against C.J. Wilson, but he has the best numbers against the Texas starter. Chone Figgins is 5-for-19, while Ichiro Suzuki is only 6-for-23. Wilson, after winning four straight starts, has given up 10 runs in his last 8.1 innings of work.
• Randy Wolf has solid numbers against the bulk of the Giants lineup. Edgar Renteria and Juan Uribe have the best numbers against him and both are only hitting .273. There is no single player on the Giants with an average north of that.
• Hiroki Kuroda is 0-1 in three starts against the Rockies, posting an ERA over 6.00 in those starts. Troy Tulowitzki is just 3-for-16 while Todd Helton is only 1-for-10 against him. The rest of Kuroda’s numbers thoguh are ugly against them. Keep him down if you can.
• While Wandy Rodriguez has struggled this season against the Reds, giving up eight runs in 10.1 innings against them, he has been lights out at home. He has posted a 2.71 ERA at home with allowing batters to hit just .210 against him. Jay Bruce is only 1-for-17 against him, and Brandon Phillips checks in at .219 against him. The rest of the lineup is solid.
• Weird to think that Kyle Davies may be a good option tonight. Davies is 2-0 this month, giving up two runs in 12 innings of work. Asdrubal Cabrera has decent numbers, going 5-for-15 against him, but Travis Hafner is 1-for-9, and Shin-Soo Choo is only 2-for-13. In a tight position, look to Davies. He has upside here.
• Spot Start: Davies, Bumgarner, Kennedy

Weekend Notes

• Riding the Jeremy Guthrie train has been fun, but he has been killed by the Yankees this season. In two starts, he has given up 12 hits and 10 runs in 11.2 innings pitched. While going 6-2 over his last eight starts is good, the numbers here do not add up. Start your Yankees and avoid him here. Avoid the 1-for-18 of Mark Teixeira, but Nick Swisher is a .542 hitter against him.
• Vernon Wells has five home runs in 35 at-bats against Josh Beckett, and Aaron Hill is hitting far better than .400 against him. Lyle Overbay and Adam Lind are both solid producers as well. Only the catching tandem of Jose Molina and John Buck should be benched.
• Tim Hudson has pitched well against the Mets this season, going 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his starts. In 20 innings, he has allowed only 18 hits and one home run. Carlos Beltran has hit .373 against him, but he is the only true regular hitting over .300 against Hudson. Might see Angel Pagan here, as he is 6-for-12 against Hudson.
• Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn are all hitting better than .300 against Bronson Arroyo. Pence is the big winner, checking in at .370 in his at-bats. Arroyo finally got a win in his last start after losing three straight. He has been solid on the road, going 9-5 with a 3.89 ERA. Despite the numbers of these three, a good spot start.
• John Danks has allowed only two earned runs in 13 innings against the Tigers this year. No great numbers for the Tigers against him either. Jhonny Peralta is at .226, while Brandon Inge is at .238. Ryan Raburn is only 3-for-16 against Danks. Look to avoid your Tigers where you can in this one.
• Andy Pettitte will take the mound after successful rehab starts. Pettitte was pitching very well prior to the injury, and will draw the Orioles, a team he has fared well against historically. Owners looking for the pick-me-up should grab him for the start.
• Jon Lester goes into his start against Toronto with a 6.60 ERA against them this season. When you peel back the one bad start of nine runs in two innings, the numbers are much better. Lester is 6-1 in his last seven starts and has a 3.60 ERA for the month.
• Clayton Kershaw goes in to Sunday’s start against the Rockies with a 3-0 record against them this season. He has struck out 30 while allowing just three runs in 26 innings. Tulowitzki has struggled, hitting only .192 in 26 at-bats and even Carlos Gonzalez is only 1-for-9. Only Dexter Fowler at .353 cracks the .275 mark against the lefty starter. Avoid your Rockies where possible.
• Spot Starts: Figueroa, Sanchez, Vargas, D. Hudson, Niemann

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On June 16, 2010, the San Diego Padres got out of bed and looked up at the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were white-knuckling a half-game lead in the National League West. The next day, the Pads would move into a first-place tie with the Bums and wouldn’t relinquish the catbird’s seat for the rest of June.

Or July.

Or August.

Or the through the first 16 days of September.

But when the Friars wake up on Sept. 17, they will once again be greeted by a deficit in the West.

All it took was a 10-game losing jag, a bad weekend against their pursuer, and finally a 4-0 shutout at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals to erase precisely three months of division domination and open the door for the San Francisco Giants.

Thanks to scintillating performances by Jonathan Sanchez and Aubrey Huff (with Buster Posey, Edgar Renteria, and Jose Guillen in sterling supporting roles), los Gigantes sashayed right through and will be front-running in the race for the pennant when Friday morning breaks.

The inconsistent southpaw may be on his way to shedding that adjective after confounding the Dodgers for seven innings on Thursday night, his fourth straight effective turn on the bump in the fire of a postseason drive.

The hated rivals spent a good deal of the evening in an offensive fog similar to the pea soup hanging over AT&T Park.

Sanchez put 12 Bums out of their considerable misery (thank you, Frank and Jamie McCourt, the Bay Area loves ya) via the strikeout in those seven frames.

More importantly, the lefty never lost his arm slot for more than a pitch or two and consequently issued a fat doughnut in the free-pass column.

Four hits, including rookie Russell Mitchell’s first major-league hit/round-tripper, and a Juan Uribe error did conspire to plate two runs (one earned) for Los Angeles, but the 27-year-old had his filthy stuff working and it showed.

For those of you who like to see the cold, hard proof—7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K, and only 90 pitches.

Of course, the last Giant to toss a no-hitter is no stranger to losing ball games in which he surrendered a solitary earned run.

On this night however, with first place on the line, the San Francisco lumber would allow no such cruelty to befall its starter.

Aubrey Huff launched a Ted Lilly offering into the right-field seats during a four-run bottom of the third that gave the Gents a lead they would only bolster as the night progressed.

Posey would obliterate a hit-me slider five pitches later for back-to-back taters and the rout was on.

The good guys tacked on another run in the bottom for the fourth, two more in the fifth, and another deuce in the eighth for a clean 10-spot on the evening against only the two runs for LA (what a crying shame).

When the mushroom cloud had cleared, Huff was 2-for-4 with the two runs scored, three runs batted in, and a triple to go with the aforementioned bomb.

Posey chipped in a 2-for-5 effort with a run scored, two runs batted in, and a double to go with his aforementioned long ball.

And then there was the much-maligned shortstop.

Like most observers of the Orange and Black, I’ve taken my fair share of swipes at Renteria, but he was sublime in the finale of the season series with the Dodgers.

Not only did he pull a 4-for-5 rabbit out of the hat as the leadoff man, but he also scored two runs, scorched a triple of his own, and dropped a beautiful bunt down the third-base line just to exhibit his blinding speed.

With all that carnage, a perfect 3-for-3 turn at the dish from Guillen—with two runs scored, two runs batted in, and a home run as well—barely registers. Not to mention Freddy Sanchez’ game (2-for-4, 1 R, 3 RBI, 2 2B, 1 BB, and another fine defensive gem).

With 15 games left on the Giants‘ slate, 16 left on the Padres‘, and only one win separating the clubs, this baby is far from settled. But San Francisco took another important psychological step by turning the hunted into the hunter, even if only for a day.

One veil of invincibility was pierced at Petco Park when the lads skipped town with three wins from a four-game series. Another was pierced on Thursday, when Saint Diego’s consecutive streak atop the division came to an end.

There will almost surely be more jostling for position—probably right down to the final weekend of the year in October when the Padres come to the City—and let’s not forget about the Colorado Rockies, who are still firmly on the scent.

So, again, nobody should giddily take to the streets quite yet.

Nevertheless, the San Francisco bats are doing their part and the pitching staff is the best in the Bigs thus far in the month of September.

Sweetening the deal, the hometown nine just took two of three—and 10 of 18 on the season—from the despised Dodgers and its 83-64 record is the same as the one boasted by the Wild Card-leading Atlanta Braves.

In other words, the stretch run is starting to have that special feel.

And the San Francisco Giants are enjoying every moment of it.

**Click here to learn more about the Paralyzed Veterans of America**

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The San Francisco Giants did three significant things during their humongous four-game series against the San Diego Padres. Call it a pleasant coincidence that the team also won three of the weekend contests.

By taking three of four in Petco Park, the good guys exorcised some serious demons in a personal house of horrors. Since the start of the 2009 campaign, the Giants had only won three of the last 14 contests played in the Friars’ home. You have to imagine the lads enjoyed doubling a two-year win total in four days.

More importantly, the trio of triumphs moved the Orange and Black into a virtual tie with the Fathers atop the National League West—one up in the win column, one back in the loss column, and only percentage points behind the technical front-runners.

Finally and most importantly, San Francisco showed that it was strapped in for the 2010 stretch and ready to make a hard charge at the playoffs. By pennant or by Wild Card, SF seems intent on reaching Major League Baseball’s second season.

And that development has to disturb the other contenders from the Senior Circuit.

Though we’re not yet sure who will be vying for the NL’s ticket to the World Series, any team hoping to be one of those fortunate four can’t be relishing the prospect of a date with the City’s nine.

Here are the top 10 reasons nobody wants to see the San Francisco Giants in the postseason.

Begin Slideshow

Heading into the 2010 Major League Baseball season, there was one thing the Bay Area and everyone else knew for sure about the San Francisco Giants. Namely, that the squad would contend as long and as hard as the starting pitching would allow.

It was justifiably considered the organization’s backbone and primary weapon on the diamond.

Two-time defending National League Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, as notorious for throwing smoke as he became for inhaling it, was the unquestioned leader of the staff.

His younger wingman, Matt Cain, was coming off his first All-Star team selection and best season of his steadily improving career. Jonathan Sanchez, who registered the first no-hitter by a Giant in over 30 years against the San Diego Padres in 2009 and was firmly entrenched in his prime, would be the No. 4 starter.

Completing the robust rotation were blue-chip phenom Madison Bumgarner, whose arrival was only a matter of time regardless of what the brass told place-holder Todd Wellemeyer, as well as veteran southpaw and local chew-toy Barry Zito.

Even with the can-of-kerosene-wearing Wellemeyer’s uniform torching the rotation every fifth day (in reluctant fairness to the right-hander, he was actually pretty good at AT&T Park), it looked like a ferocious group on paper.

Begin Slideshow

Just days before the big three game set between the NL West front-running San Diego Padres and the trailing San Francisco Giants, both sides were already looking forward to their divisional showdown. Giants’ left-hander Jonathan Sanchez may have been a little too fired up.

Sanchez is, undoubtedly, a good pitcher. He’s the same guy who threw a no-hitter against the Padres in July of 2009 at AT&T Park. He was also the same pitcher that gave up just one hit to that same team earlier this year…and lost 1-0.

Maybe his adrenaline or excitement got the best of him. Or, perhaps, he just wasn’t thinking when John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle talked to him about the upcoming series. Whatever the case may be, Sanchez decided to throw down the gauntlet and say something he probably shouldn’t have said.

“We’re going to play them three straight times and we’re going to beat them three times,” Sanchez told Shea. “If we get to first place, we’re not looking back.” You have to wonder how many of his teammates put their hands over their faces and wished they could have shut him up before he spoke. Henry Schulman, also with the Chronicle, reported that some in the Giants’ clubhouse were annoyed at the comment.

Unfortunately, the words were out and, the next morning, they were in the paper for all to see. When the Padres got wind of it, not one of them fired back with a guarantee of their own. Left fielder Scott Hairston told a San Diego television station that it wasn’t a smart thing of Sanchez to say, but didn’t go much further. Padres’ closer Heath Bell decided to have a little fun with the comment saying, “All right, cool. We’re going to get swept. Well, I swept my garage this morning.”

It wouldn’t take long for Sanchez to regret his words, as he ended up the losing pitcher on Friday night, and, after an extra innings victory for his team on Saturday, watched as the Padres put an exclamation point on the series with an 8-2 win on Sunday.

While he would be eating his words in the Giants clubhouse on Sunday afternoon, another Giants pitcher apparently didn’t learn the lesson Sanchez had just learned the hard way.

Reliever Guillermo Mota, who got tagged for the final two runs in an 8-2 defeat, decided to open his mouth and make everyone else roll their eyes. It’s one thing for Sanchez, an above average pitcher, to say what he said, it’s quite another for a guy that’s given up six earned runs in three and a third innings to say it.

Mota started off politically correct when talking to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, “We’ve got seven games left with them? We don’t care about those seven games now. What we care about is winning series. They’ve been playing good. We do, too. But it’s not between us and San Diego. It’s us and the whole league right now. We’ve got to go to Philly and take care of business.”

At this moment, you can imagine Mota’s teammates answering their own questions from the media and minding their own business.

Then, in a “what the hell did he just say” moment, Mota dropped this little nugget: “Every team has a down time. Every team has its lumps. They haven’t had their lumps. You don’t think they’re going to be playing like that all year, do you? If they do, congratulations.”

I’m curious what the media thought when Mota popped off like that. Did they know it was coming? Could they sense that a moment of brilliance, or lackthereof, was about to be shared? What about his teammates? Did they take him aside and smack him upside the head and remind him that’s exactly what got Sanchez in trouble?

Mota can say they don’t care about San Diego all he wants. But, this time of year, there isn’t one playoff-contending team that isn’t watching the out-of-town scoreboards or wanting to know how the other team did.

These two teams will meet seven more times, including four at Petco Park, before the season is over. You can bet that those seven games will be just as big as this past weekend was, especially if the race is as close as it is so far.

Through 11 games between the two teams, the Padres have won nine of those 11 games and sit at three and a half games in front of the Giants.

Their battle isn’t over and, apparently, neither are the guarantees.

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It is not a show on Broadway, although it entertains you like one. Nor is it a Shakespearean tragedy, yet it is rich in suspense and drama. It is the second half of the 2010 season in San Francisco.

This weekend, the biggest series of the Giants regular season is set to take place.

Taking the hill tonight for San Francisco is none other than Mr. Guarantee himself, Jonathan Sanchez. The same pitcher who earlier in the week called a three-game sweep of the first place San Diego Padres.

Tonight, he will have to walk the walk—trying to avoid walking too many Padres in the process. Sanchez’s bold statement drew the ire of the Padres and his fellow teammates.

Baseball is a game of ethics and sportsmanship.

In the eyes of many baseball purists, such a guarantee just will not inherit. While Sanchez can be dominating at times, he has not been the kind of awesome force that you would expect or respect bold predictions from.

With an 8-7 record, Sanchez will have to get it done between the lines. He already has a reputation for unraveling mentally once things start to go awry for him. You have to wonder, is this mere enthusiasm? False bravado?

Or has Jonathan Sanchez finally acquired the mind-set that will finally elevate him into the next tier of talented starting pitching?

Time will tell. A very short time—tonight will either solidify and validate his resolve, or shatter an already shaky ego and ensure another downward spiral for the young lefty.

By Sunday, we will know if the Giants are indeed the real deal in the NL West, or a spunky group of fierce water treaders.

The Chicago Cubs gave the Giants a scare in every game of the four-game series that concluded with a Giants win Thursday.

The Cubs, who have nothing left to play for did not lay down. Their manager is away from the team, they are shedding players right and left, and yet they fought like real contenders in this series.

The Giants needed exactly what the Cubs gave. They needed to know they could pitch when it mattered and drive in key runs.

Some will say the Giants underachieved and barely got by a mediocre team at best. I believe the Giants got a real opportunity to answer some tough questions about themselves.

While it was not a four-game sweep, or landslide victory in any of the four games, it was a chance for the Giants to build on themselves.

Imagine losing three of four to Cubs heading into this weekend’s series. Lose three out of four to Chicago and limp in to the clash with the Padres and you might as well kiss the playoffs goodbye.

Pat Burrell, Pat Burrell, and more Pat Burrell.

Although the Giants did not break camp with Burrell in the spring, they are sure glad they kicked the tires on the veteran slugger. I was at the park yesterday, yards away from the foul pole that Burrell clanged his fifth inning grand slam—it was magic.

It has been years since a guy not wearing No. 25 captivated an audience with his swing. If Burrell can keep this clutch play going, he will endear himself to fans in San Francisco for years to come.

The Giants have other new arrivals waiting to earn the same love.

Relievers like Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez will definitely be called on before its all said and done. How they answer that call will determine if the 2010 season will be long remembered or not.

Javier Lopez is the only healthy left-handed reliever in San Francisco’s maligned bullpen. Will his value continue to rise? Or will he and Ramirez join the list of disappointments late in games?

The Giants also bolstered their infield after Renteria went back on the disabled list with a strained bicep. They called up minor leaguer Emmanuel Burriss for another stint in the big leagues to back up Uribe at shortstop.

Giving Manager Bruce Bochy a little more wiggle room, the Giants also acquired Mike Fontenot from the Cubs during the series.

If second basemen Freddie Sanchez cannot pull himself out of his offensive slump, we may see Fontenot infused at second before long.

Brian Sabean wasn’t done there either, making an early deal this morning for Jose Guillen of the Kansas City Royals.

Guillen is regarded as the second worst player in a clubhouse second only to Milton Bradley. His nine-team career speaks volumes about his chemistry.

On the other hand, Guillen has plenty of pop in his bat and has already driven in 62 RBI. Where does Bochy play him? If he gets left/right field, that will likely force Huff to first, and Ishikawa to the bench.

Despite the juggling act for Bruce Bochy, Jose Guillen’s character is a huge turn off. Let’s hope he doesn’t have a negative effect on the good chemistry the club is enjoying now.

If Guillen is to be viewed as a rental player for the remainder of the season, then the move makes perfect sense. How much can a bad attitude affect a club in 40 games? Let’s hope I’m not seriously wrong with that viewpoint!

The San Francisco Giants are in the mix for the division crown. They are playing good ball. The front office is making moves.

Pitchers are laying down guarantees. For the first time in a long time, it looks like this whole organization wants it. And they want it bad.

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The National League West isn’t known for its rivalries in the same manner as the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees feud.

However, San Francisco Giants pitcher Jonathan Sanchez is doing his best to change that.

After the Giants lost 6-3 to the Atlanta Braves Sunday that extended San Diego’s division lead to two games, Sanchez fired some heavy words in a tall statement.

“We’re going to play San Diego, and we’re going to beat them three times,” Sanchez told The San Francisco Chronicle, speaking of a potential sweep this weekend in a pivotal series against the Padres. “If we get to first place, we’re not going to look back.”

What about the fact the Padres have won seven out of eight games against the Giants this year?

“That was a long time ago,” Sanchez said. “Doesn’t matter. We’ve got a better team now.”

The prediction came on the same day Sanchez couldn’t pitch himself into the fifth inning, surrendering four runs in four innings against the Atlanta Braves.

Sanchez has pitched well against the Padres this season. In three starts and 21 innings of work, Sanchez has allowed six runs and 11 hits, but he hasn’t produced a win.

Mat Latos can be thanked for that.

Latos has out-dueled Sanchez in all three outings. In 22 innings against the Giants, Latos has surrendered just two runs and 11 hits.

Guess what?

Both pitchers were on the hill Sunday, which could result in another face-off this weekend in San Francisco.

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Baseball managerial practices are organic. They change and shift according to knowledge into the laws of physics, culture, and economics.

In times of yore, a five-man rotation was thought to be useless, Cy Young started 49 games in a single year, and the concept of a closer would have been bizarre.

Getting back to the present, Stephen Strasburg’s muscles flared a few weeks ago, and it seems he may be shut down for the year.

Baseball’s “chosen one” had never pitched more than 128 innings in a season, and so nearing that number between the minors and majors this year, the Nationals began to tread carefully.

With his inflammation not abating, what are the chances they let him pitch again this year?

We live in the age of the pitch count and caution.

Looking at the numbers for the Giants’ starting pitching staff this year, some interesting trends start to emerge.

At the start of the year with a well-rested staff, the Giants came out firing on all cylinders, with the exception of Todd Wellemeyer’s road starts.

At home, however, Wellemeyer joined the party and the Giants maintained first place in their division.

Some ups and downs took them through the first half, but it was the offense’s impotence during stretches that prevented them from winning, e.g. the series in Oakland.

But before the All-Star break, the pitching seemed to completely break down and looked fatigued. They lost seven in a row and the formerly dominant pitching staff became average to subpar.

Of course, many will point to the obvious friction—holding Buster Posey back and continuing to use the very much depleted Bengie Molina—as the source of the teams’ woes.

The Giants traded Molina on June 30th, and the team has been much better since then.

Right before the All-Star break in Milwaukee, the team was able to get healthy on a fairly inept team, and Posey redonned his Iron Man suit and put the team on his back.

But the starting rotation really seemed to find themselves after the extra rest of the All-Star break.

Lincecum started the second half with a shutout. Zito followed with eight shutout innings.  Cain then gave up 2 ERs in seven innings. Sanchez also gave up 2 ERs in seven innings. And Bumgarner finished up the first cycle by going 5.2 IP and allowing 1 ER.

The Giants won four of five, and the starting rotation posted an ERA of 1.28.

Since then, the offense has outperformed every other one in baseball while the pitching has stayed solid.

But those first five games are instructive—with a little extra rest, the starting rotation dominated.

Furthermore, Lincecum needed to skip a start at the end of last year to refuel.

Now Wellemeyer is ready to return to the big league club and the Giants will have five-and-a-half starting pitchers.

Yes, I said five-and-a-half. Earlier this year I wrote an article suggesting Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde should be separated at the hip. In other words, Wellemeyer should just make his home starts. It was supposed to be funny…a joke.

But now, it actually seems to make sense. If the staff pitches better with a little extra rest, why not let Wellemeyer take a few home starts from here on out?

The Giants can go in one of two directions: either say we’re embarrassed that the guy can’t pitch on the road and not start him at all, or say we’re proud the guy can knock it out at home and send him out there.

The glass is either half empty or half full.

But if the corollary that a better rested staff is more dominant is true, then a “5.5 Man Rotation Giants” would have the best staff in baseball going into September and October.

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In some recess of his or her brain, every San Francisco Giants fan is thinking the same thing now that Dontrelle Willis has signed a Minor League contract with the club.

Does this mean someone in the current rotation is on his way out?

It’s natural.

Although rookie Madison Bumgarner’s name has popped up on the trade radar, it’s doubtful the Gents would be interested in moving the 20-year-old lefty, given he’s twirled a quartet of blinders since being called up at the end of June.

Plus, he’s cheap and under control for a while as a member of the 2007 draft class.

Even the most cynical skeptic of Brian Sabean has to believe the San Francisco general manager has been impressed with the No. 5 starter and recognizes the cost-benefit analysis weighs heavily against moving the kid.

On the other hand, more of the recent trade gossip has theorized that Jonathan Sanchez—a 27-year-old southpaw with electric stuff who can struggle with his control—would be the centerpiece of any high-profile move los Gigantes might be contemplating.

Well, lo and behold, the team just brought in a 28-year-old southpaw with electric stuff who can struggle with his control.

Granted, paralleling Sanchez’s lack of consistency with Willis’ Rick Ankiel act is a bit like comparing your water-retaining girlfriend to Kirstie Alley (the latter is FAR dumber), but you get the point.

The acquisition of a player who profiles similarly to one who’s been at the heart of trade rumors justifiably sets the fan base’s gears in motion.

Some are excited at the thought because they can almost imagine Corey Hart or Prince Fielder winging his way to the Bay Area, complete with shining white armor.

Others are sickened by the thought if they’re even acknowledging the splinter is there.

It’s there, though, it’s gotta be.

But let’s be reasonable about this before the full-on paranoia hits.

Dontrelle Willis has been an absolute catastrophe in cleats since something went horribly awry in the 2006 season.

The goofy native of Oakland had a career year in 2005 when he won 22 games while posting a 2.63 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, seven complete games, five shutouts, and 55 walks in 236.1 innings.

He was an All-Star, finished 11th in the National League Most Valuable Player voting, and was the runner-up to the NL Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter.

One more key stat—Willis hit only eight batters in all those frames.

In ’06, some of the numbers still looked pretty good. He notched a 3.87 ERA with four complete games, a shutout, and a 6.4 K/9 (only a tenth off his ’05 rate) in 223,1 IP. But his walks shot up to 83 and his WHIP bloomed to 1.42.

More distressingly, the D-Train side-swiped 19 hitters.

From his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2003 through 2005—a span covering 594 innings—Dontrelle Willis hit 19 batters.

Then he hit the same number during one 162-game stretch.

The wheels were officially wobbling.

They came off in 2007 as the bad numbers went up and the good ones went down. A move to Detroit in 2008 as a throw-in part of the Miguel Cabrera deal didn’t help, and 2009 brought more of the same.

This year started in the same fashion, so the Tigers shipped Willis off to Arizona, where the Diamondbacks experimented for about 22 innings until kicking Willis to the curb.

That’s a very thorough way of saying the dude isn’t even close to being an option at the moment.

A brief way would be to mention his 56 free passes in 65.2 innings this year.

Nah, if I had to guess, Dontrelle is in the system on a wing and a prayer to see if he can find himself enough to be a help out of the bullpen.

Ever since Dan Runzler went down during that awkward at-bat, the firemen have a decidedly right-handed lean—only Jeremy Affeldt brings it from the south side and he’s been Rickety Cricket thus far.

The Gents are getting desperate for lefty relief and this move hints of desperation.

Maybe the big southpaw has been signed with dreams of reinforcing the starting rotation.

It’s possible, but even so he’d still have to right the ship well enough to be a reliable plan B by the July 31 trade deadline.

In two weeks.

Judging from the last few years, that would be nothing short of a flippin’ miracle.

The Bay Area worked its magic on Pat Burrell, another ballplayer who spent his youth within driving distance of the City.

Perhaps it will do the trick for Dontrelle Willis.

But the odds are too long for this to be a sign of things to come…

Right?

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The San Francisco Giants need a big bat to make a big run at a National League playoff berth.

Guess what?

They don’t need to trade starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez (whose still got a 75 percent chance of being a productive big league winner) to get outfielder Corey Hart (who’d come with 50-50 odds that his offensive numbers would diminish in the move from Milwaukee’s cavernous Miller Park to San Francisco’s cavernous AT&T Park).

Odds are far better than 50-50 that Pablo Sandoval will find himself at the plate. So, even while fans foolishly suggest the 23-year-old third baseman be sent to the minor leagues—there’s a 70 percent chance that Sandoval will bump his power numbers up and move his batting average well past the .260 mark he’s hovering around now.

There’s a 50 percent chance Hart would go bust in San Francisco. There’s a 70 percent chance that the real Sandoval is a guy who’ll produce more than he did in the first half and less frequently than he did in 2009.

So the Giants will get the extra run production they need from Sandoval without trading Sanchez. And, the guys smoking dope in the Brewers front office who said they’d take Madison Bumgarner can go back to their bong. Trade Bumgarner? Yeah, sure.

The Giants would be risking losing a productive pitcher in Sanchez and create a hole in the rotation to get Hart, who would come with a 50 percent chance his production would drop. Too much risk. No deal.

Sandoval’s hit his entire career. He doesn’t need to have MVP numbers to help produce more runs. He’s only 23 years old. Why risk a disastrous trade for Hart if the Giants can wait for Sandoval? (Fans who want Pablo traded or demoted are in the Giants Fans Hall of Shame—along with those who booed Tim Lincecum when he struggled.)

Here’s a look at the odds the Giants will get what they need most from the players they have:

The starting rotation has to be strong. It’s absurd to expect all five starters to be lights out at the same time. There’s a 100 percent chance that the Bumgarner we’ve seen will be the lefty we see through September. Barry Zito’s traditionally pitched better in the second half—so, there’s a 75 percent chance that he’ll bounce back to his early season form. Sanchez, in San Francisco, remains a question mark that the Giants can afford to carry. Give the guy 10 starts and he’ll pitch well in more than six of them—so figure there’s a 60 percent chance Sanchez will carry the load.

That leaves it to Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain to make sure that one or the other is the slump-buster, the guy the opposition knows is going to hand them an almost certain loss. There’s a 95 percent chance that one or the other will be pitching like a big-time ace from now until September. However, there’s a 30 percent chance that one or the other will struggle.

The key for the Giants rotation will get ace-like efforts from Cain or Lincecum—consistently.

The bullpen is one area the club has to bolster in trade. The Giants need a left-hander and they’ll get one for, oh, a can’t-miss prospect like righthander Tim Alderson. You remember Alderson? Yeah, the guy that the Pittsburgh Pirates demoted to the Class A Florida State League on Tuesday.

Brian Wilson’s a sure bet to carry his load as the closer. He’ll drive the Giants nuts making things too close for comfort, but there are 95-5 odds he’ll do the job every time.

The rest of the bullpen? There’s a 70 percent chance that it will be the reason that the Giants fall short of the playoffs. Keep in mind, though, that set-up men like Jeremy Affeldt get it together as quickly as they lose it. Something indicates that the veteran will pitch better down the stretch than he has so far—give Affeldt a 72 percent chance of regaining his 2010 form.

The offense?

Buster Posey’s provided the big-time bat the Giants needed. He is who we thought he would be. There’s no chance he’ll hit an extended slump and, surprise, he’s hitting for the power all the nabobs who spend too much time reading minor league scouting reports said he would never display.

Aubrey Huff’s a pro—even if he produces 80 percent of the offense he produced in the first half, he’ll bump up the offense because Juan Uribe is back and healthy and he’ll make Huff more productive.

Travis Ishikawa has found his swing and could, mercifully, be a mid-20s talent who came up through the system. Based on how he’s swinging, and his professional attitude, there’s an 80 percent chance that Ishikawa will significantly help produce more runs.

No new hitters needed.

The chance that Uribe and Edgar Renteria both flop with the sticks in the stretch? Oh, 10 percent chance? Anything’s possible. Freddy Sanchez is a professional hitter who is certain to hit through the season like he’s  hit his entire career—no chance he’ll fail to produce.

Pat Burrell’s going to be key. He’s doing for the Giants what he did for the Philadelphia Phillies—hitting the longball and striking out a lot. Like it or not, though, the odds that Burrell could revert to the guy who couldn’t make contact for Tampa Bay are higher than fans want to admit. Figure there’s a 60 percent chance Burrell keeps doing the job.

The offense actually might live or die with Sandoval’s resurgence and lead-off hitter Andres Torres. There is about, oh, a 66 percent chance that Torres will keep hitting around .275, with some pop and flashing stolen base speed. If the 34 percent odds pay off and he flounders—Aaron Rowand will be the Giants hope.

The odds Rowand gets Giants fans off his back? (Don’t laugh…the guy works at his game.) 60-40…maybe 70-30. Keep in mind, it won’t take much for Rowand to improve his output.

The defense is good enough to win.

There’s a 100 percent chance the Giants won’t trade a current starting pitcher, so that means there’s 95 percent chance they won’t trade for big-time hitter.

That’s not terribly bad news, though. Fans have been calling for the club to develop talent and—the 2010 playoff hopes rest on Sandoval, Posey, Lincecum, Cain, Wilson, Jonathan Sanchez, and Bumgarner.

Ted Sillanpaa is a Northern California sports writer and columnist. Read Ted at tsillanpaa1956@gmail.com

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