Kuzul

In recent days, much has been ballyhooed about the Philadelphia Phillies standing in the National League East division. At five games below .500 and nine-and-a-half games from the division leading Atlanta Braves, fans are clamoring for the Phillies to sell their most esteemed pieces in order to gain in the future with highly regarded prospects.

However, the Phillies are right where they were expected to be. Only those with blinders on would have expected more. With Ruben Amaro Jr. at the helm of arranging this roster, only more of the same can be expected so long as he’s the general manager.

For instance, the starting rotation leads Major League Baseball with 55 quality starts (QS). For comparison’s sake, the Washington Nationals have 46 QS while the Pittsburgh Pirates have tallied 38 QS. 

The Earned Run Average (ERA) of the starting pitchers for Philadelphia is 4.03. Compared to the rest of MLB, this is average. However, the Phillies’ starters Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.75 is near the top in MLB. According to FanGraphs, FIP “measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average.”

FIP suggests we should take a look at the Revised Zone Rating (RZR) which measures “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out.” A strong indicator of defensive performance beyond the pitching, RZR is indicative of the woes that can plague a good pitching staff backed by inadequate defense in the field.

Philadelphia ranks 24th in MLB in RZR (.826). Aside from the New York Yankees (ranked 25th), the other five teams worse in this category sit with sub-.500 win-loss records. They include the Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers.

Defense hasn’t been the only liability for the Phillies.

The relievers bode a 4.60 ERA, slotted in as the second worst in all of MLB. Unlike the Phillies starting rotation though, this high ERA cannot be hitched to poor defense. After all, the bullpen’s FIP is third worst in baseball at 4.39. They also have the third worst Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at -0.8.

The Phillies hitting has been abysmal as well. Despite a power surge from Domonic Brown, the lineup ranks 22nd in WAR (7.2). Comparatively speaking, the Chicago Cubs (8.8), Kansas City Royals (9.5) and San Diego Padres (13.0) all fare better in this metric.

The team’s batting average of .255 is near the league median and their strikeout rate is average. However, the Phillies sluggers have showed little patience at the plate, boasting one of the league’s worst walk rates (6.9 percent).

Simply put, the current makeup of the roster is not working out. Chase Utley, Michael Young and Carlos Ruiz are all set to be free agents following the season. It would make sense for Amaro Jr. to deal these players. Since they are not helping place the Phillies in serious contention, why not give the likes of Cesar Hernandez, Cody Asche and Tommy Joseph extended looks as we crawl through the summer?

On top of that, it would behoove the Phillies to unload the contract of closer Jonathan Papelbon. The 32-year-old is set to earn $13 million per annum through 2015 with a vesting option for 2016. At the same time, Pirates closer Jason Grilli will earn $2.5 million this year and $4 million next. Yes, the same Grilli that Amaro Jr. cut in 2011 has gone on to become one of the best closers in baseball.

For now, it would seem that any team willing to take Papelbon off of the Phillies would be reluctant to do so unless the Phils are willing to eat some of the salary owed to the closer. This might be a significant hurdler to overcome.

In regard to ace Cliff Lee, it would be foolish to deal him now. Despite the $25 million per year he will be owed through 2015 (with a club option for 2016), Lee is more valuable to the Phillies than he would be should they attain prospects via trade. 

Why?

In reality, the Phillies are still not stuck between a rock and a hard place. Sure, they have no hope of winning the World Series in 2013 but a looming television deal could increase their potential to bring in better talent in the very near future.

The trust factor is nonexistent with general manager Amaro Jr., though. Remember, he was the same GM that thought bringing Jim Thome into a NL ballpark was a good idea (skipper Charlie Manuel signed off on that, too).

Amaro Jr. is also the one who orchestrated the $50 million contract for Papelbon. In regard to this, the average 2013 salary of the top eight closers (aside from Mariano Rivera) in terms of saves is $3.98 million. The list includes Grilli, Craig Kimbrel, Edward Mujica, Ernesto Frieri and Addison Reed.

Quite frankly, paying a reliever not named Mo Rivera is asinine since the Grillis and Mujicas of the baseball world continue to prove over and over again inflated valuation of the closer role is nonsensical.

Speaking of sense, the only way to make any of the Phillies 2013 campaign is to point the finger at Amaro Jr. He engineered the roster his way and it has simply not worked. As many have been saying since last season, it is time to change course–not only with the roster but with the management as well.

Statistics and metrics sourced from Fangraphs.

Salary information sourced from SpoTrac.

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Los Angeles Dodgers phenom Yasiel Puig has made no bones about his desire to make the trip to Citi Field for the 2013 MLB All-Star Game.

Philadelphia Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon thinks the entire candidacy is a “joke.” Well, at least that’s what Papelbon said when he appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM Tuesday afternoon.

Asked about Puig‘s All-Star candidacy, the Phillies closer minced no words. Defending his fellow veterans, Papelbon cited the Dodgers outfielder’s lack of service time, saying it “does an injustice” to compare Puig to players with a proven track record.

Here is Papelbon’s full quote, with transcription courtesy of CBS Philly:

To me, it’s an absolute joke. It’s really kind of stupid if you ask me. The guy’s got a month, I don’t even think he’s got a month in the big leagues, and just comparing him to this and that, and saying he’s going to make the all-star team, that’s a joke to me. It’s just really what happens in baseball when…to me it really does an injustice to the veteran players that have been in the game for eight, nine, ten plus years, and it kind of does them an injustice because they’ve worked so hard to stay there.

The 22-year-old Puig has indeed been up in the big leagues for less than a month. The Cuban defector, whom the Dodgers signed to a $42 million contract just one year ago, was called up by the Dodgers June 2 and made his debut a day later.

During that time, though, Puig has taken Major League Baseball by storm. The 6’3″, 245-pound Puig has lived up to every bit of the hype and then some from when he was signed by Los Angeles, hitting .436 with seven home runs and 16 RBI during his first month in the bigs.

Adding four steals and a cannon arm from right field to boot, Puig‘s eclectic skill set has made him one of the most exciting young talents in baseball. His 44 hits during the month of June were the most during a player’s first month in the majors since Joe DiMaggio had 48 in May of 1936.

Playing with the joy and aggression of a young man just happy to be there, Puigmania has created the most intrigue for baseball in Los Angeles since the MannyWood era. According to Forbes‘ Jesse Lawrence, the average price of Dodgers tickets has skyrocketed 88 percent since his arrival. People both inside and outside of Los Angeles have come in droves to see the Cuban mystery man.

As Puig continues to ascend, there has been plenty of talk about the Dodgers star making the All-Star Game. While it’s almost impossible for fans to vote him in—he’s only a write-in possibility, with ballots having long been printed before his major league rise—some have called on NL manager Bruce Bochy to let Puig play.

On one side, the Midsummer Classic is a spectacle made for fans. Puig is arguably the hottest name in baseball. His name resonates with casual fans, ones that MLB would want on its product during one of its biggest events.

On the other, though, Bochy will be trying to win the game and secure home-field advantage in the World Series for his league. The San Francisco Giants manager would also have to pass on more established veterans to give Puig the nod.

Either way, Papelbon has made his feelings on the matter quite clear

It will be awfully interesting to see what happens if and when Puig steps to the plate against Papelbon later this season. The Phillies and Dodgers have one more series this season, starting Aug. 16 in Philadelphia.

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I’ll take a wild guess and say that about 98.32 percent of rumored trades between now and July 31 won’t happen. In fact, a large percentage of those probably weren’t even seriously discussed by the teams mentioned.

So while we were all seriously discussing how those players would fit on their new teams and speculating on which prospects were going to be part of the trade package, the general managers involved in the rumored deal were probably working on a deal that was completely under wraps and then surprised the heck out of everybody once it was announced. 

And despite being completely fooled year after year, those discussions among fellow baseball fans are what makes this one of the best times of the year to be a baseball fan.

You can’t predict baseball on or off the field. Expect the unexpected. Just don’t expect these four rumored trades to happen.     

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The Philadelphia Phillies have not had a losing season since 2002, when they finished 80-81. The last ten seasons have provided the faithful fan base in Philadelphia with more things to cheer about than to jeer about. Unfortunately though, the end is near. 

It wasn’t the farcical Mayan Apocalypse that dashed the hopes of Phillies fans everywhere. No. It was the mismanagement of a roster and farm system that will cause the destruction of arguably the best decade of baseball in this franchise’s history. 

Who is to blame?

People will easily point fingers at the players. Most notably, Ryan Howard’s disappointing lack of production along with an additional projected decrease as his salary increases through the next several years is causing flack among Phillies fans.

Despite all this, Howard is not to blame.

Charlie Manuel developed a reputation for being a manager who knows how to instruct and correct batting issues from the get-go. It is sad to say, but one of the problems with the Phillies has been the ability to hit effectively and drive in runs on a consistent basis in recent years.

Still, managers in baseball are the most innocuous figureheads in professional sports. They matter much less than head coaches in the NFL and NBA.

The problem resides with the front office.

On November 3, 2008, Ruben Amaro Jr. succeeded Pat Gillick as the general manager of the Phillies, directly after the Phillies won the 2008 World Series. Since then, a series of gaffes and questionable transactions have compounded the problems for the Phillies, diminishing their relevance in not only their specific division, the National League East, but the entire National League as well.

On April 26, 2010, less than two years after his promotion to GM, Amaro Jr. signed the soon-to-be 31-year-old first baseman Ryan Howard to a 5-year, $125 million contract extension. The deal called for a club option on the sixth year. 

Despite holding the single-season HR record for a Phillie as well as many other records, Howard’s production is on the decline. Coming off an Achilles tear, Howard struggled mightily last season. Some believe that Howard should regain his ability to produce at an elite level in 2013, while others dismiss him as an oft-injured slugger prone to striking out who can’t play defense and is on the decline.

Whichever way you see him, Howard is definitely a controversial piece to the puzzle of where things went wrong with Amaro Jr.

Amaro Jr. does deserve some credit. Despite selling the best prospects in the farm system and spending cash hand over fist, Amaro Jr. has amassed talent in the form of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Hunter Pence, Roy Oswalt and Jonathan Papelbon.

While these names are enticing, their deals probably are not. Take Papelbon, for example. He was given the richest contract in history for a reliever. The problem is that a deal worth $60 million for a pitcher who is tasked with attaining three outs per game is asinine.

Especially when the money could have been used to give the rest of the bullpen or 25-man roster more depth.

2013 will be a telling year for Amaro Jr. He will either look like a genius or possibly lose his job. He deserves to be knocked hard for acquiring, then trading away Gio Gonzalez. He also shipped Chris Singleton out of the organization.

Meanwhile, many fans are disheartened at the lack of talented acquisitions during the 2012-13 off-season.

Ben Revere? John Lannan? Both guys are nice players, but Revere has one of the highest ground ball rates in baseball while Lannan is extremely ordinary on the hill. Meanwhile, fan favorite Vance Worley—a man who, when healthy, is an extremely effective young pitcher—was shipped out of town.

The Phillies have thus far failed to secure a deal for the likes of Justin Upton, Jason Kubel or Dexter Fowler.

2013 will speak volumes for what Amaro Jr. has done for the Phillies franchise. The roster is the least talented of any roster the Phillies have had since 2005, which is why this is the year where Amaro Jr.’s legacy will be shaped.

As to whether or not he has a job as GM in Philadelphia come October, that remains anyone’s guess.

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Phillies fans breathlessly await this offseason’s big-name acquisition.

After the 2009 season, the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay, committing $60 million to him, per MLB.com.

After the 2010 season, recognizing how foolish they had been in trading Cliff Lee away in the first place, the Phillies brought Lee back for $120 million, per sbnation.com.

Those moves made sense and, for the most part, Halladay and Lee have delivered on their contracts.

Unfortunately, as wise as the Halladay and Lee acquisitions were, the Phillies lost the plot during the 2011 offseason.

The signing of Jonathan Papelbon for $50 million (per ESPN.com) was only marginally defensible when it happened. Now, with three years left on the deal, that decision has turned out to be a serious error in judgment.

Mind you, this is in no way an indictment of Papelbon or his performance. 

Unlike many of the players to whom the Phillies paid eight-figure salaries in 2012, Papelbon did more or less what the Phillies expected him to do.

Papelbon saved 38 games. His earned run average of 2.44 was sterling, as was his 1.06 WHIP. Striking out 92 batters in 70 games was also in line with what the Phillies expected to get from Papelbon when they gave him all that money.

And when you look around the National League, it is hard to identify many closers you would rather have than Papelbon.

Craig Kimbrel is one.

Kimbrel shared the league lead in saves, posted absurdly low numbers for earned run average (1.01) and WHIP (.654) and he is only 24 years of age.

Aroldis Chapman, also 24, saved 38 games, but with much better peripheral statistics than Papelbon (1.51 earned run average, .809 WHIP, 122 strikeouts in 71.2 innings pitched).

But Chapman is only a year removed from his predominantly lost 2011 season, when the Reds could not figure out what to do with him and he struggled with injury.

After Kimbrel and Chapman, Papelbon compares favorably with the premier closers in the rest of the National League.

Jason Motte saved 42 games, but 2012 marked the first time in his career that he had ever saved more than nine games, and he is 30 years old. 

Beyond Motte, you see a number of journeymen and league-average types: Joel Hanrahan, John Axford, J.J. Putz, et al.

Given Papelbon’s track record and his solid production in 2012, the Phillies would likely prefer him to any of those closers.

So why is the Papelbon signing such a mistake?

If the San Francisco Giants proved anything in their recent World Series run, it is that Billy Beane’s famous theory that just about anyone can close games is true.

When the Giants won the 2010 World Series, Brian Wilson made a name for himself as a quirky, lights-out closer with a funky beard. 

This season, however, Wilson pitched in two games before needing reconstructive elbow surgery. The Giants’ regular-season saves leader was Santiago Casilla.

But Sergio Romo saved all four games in the 2012 World Series. 

Beyond that, the eight figures that Papelbon commanded meant that the Phillies entered 2012 with plans to have inexpensive pitchers bridge games from the pricey starting staff to him.

Jose Contreras, Antonio Bastardo, David Herndon and Michael Stutes were all projected to pitch in the seventh and eighth innings of close games.

Of that group, all but Bastardo got hurt, and Bastardo‘s performance was so poor that by the end of the season he was primarily used in low-leverage situations.

Further, because manager Charlie Manuel was exceptionally loath to use Papelbon for more than one inning, the Phillies were eventually compelled to entrust late inning leads to the likes of B.J. Rosenberg, Jeremy Horst and Joe Savery, with predictable results.

At this point, the Phillies are probably stuck with Papelbon, at least in 2013.

His trade value with $39 million more due over the next three seasons is not going to be great. As such, the Phillies are best served hoping that he will churn out another healthy season of 30-plus saves.

If they had it to do over again, though, the Phillies would probably have Papelbon make his generational money somewhere else.

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It is Jonathan Papelbon, not Cliff Lee, whom the Phillies should be trying to move via waiver trade this month.

All indications now are that Lee is not going anywhere in 2012.  ESPN has reported that waivers on Lee expired over the weekend, and CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman tweeted today that the Los Angeles Dodgers were one of the teams that Lee could block a trade to.

But the Phillies are still eleven games under .500 and on a slow boat to nowhere with a little more than a month and a half to go.  This is not a time for the front office to idly count days passing.  This is a time for creativity, and action. 

The “trade deadline” has passed, but teams are still able to make deals.  The complication for the Phillies in trading Papelbon now (and for any trading partner) would be that Papelbon must clear waivers.  Explanations of the waiver trade process are abundant—a good one was provided recently by FoxSports.com.

Why trade Papelbon?  It is not his fault that his team has not had as many wins to save as anyone expected.  His numbers—3-4, 3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 24 saves, three blown saves—are in line with expectations given career marks of 26-23, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 243 saves and 32 blown saves.

Which is exactly why the Phillies should try to move Papelbon, now.

It is patently obvious that the forces that convinced the Phillies to sign Papelbon to a four-year, $50M contract this past offseason have proven ephemeral.

Papelbon’s signing, while costly, was justifiable under the assumption that the pitching-rich, hitting-challenged Phillies would be playing a lot of close games and would have many slim leads to protect.

Unfortunately, the hitting turned out to be not just challenged, but largely non-existent—as of this writing, the Phillies are 19th in Major League Baseball in both runs scored and slugging percentage, and they are 21st in on-base percentage.  That kind of production will not normally keep a closer busy…

…unless he is being asked to pitch in non-save situations, which Papelbon has done seventeen times so far in 2012.

The Phillies will need to be open to the idea of paying at least some of Papelbon’s contract if they hope to move him.  But while the idea of paying someone not to pitch for you is never appealing, the truth is that the Phillies as presently constituted are simply not the sort of team that can justify holding onto an eight-figure closer.  The sellout streak is over, you know.

Fortunately for the Phillies, there are some teams with serious postseason hopes, deep pockets…and iffy closer situations.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have settled on Ernesto Frieri as their closer, whose performance thus far has been spectacular.  But he got the job on May 23.  He was in San Diego to start the season.  Is that who the Angels want to take the ball with a playoff series on the line?

The Los Angeles Dodgers have tabbed Kenley Jansen to close their games.  But he has six blown saves so far, compared to 21 games saved.  The Dodgers have made it clear that they will be aggressive and will spend money.  They could decide that Papelbon is the last piece of the puzzle in 2012.

And the Detroit Tigers have walked the high wire with Jose Valverde closing games.  He has 21 saves against four blown saves…but his ERA is 3.63, and he has only 33 strikeouts against 20 walks.  Surely the Tigers would feel more confident giving the ball to Papelbon in a big spot.

At some level, it almost seems unfair to be targeting Papelbon as a player to move.  Like Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino before him, Papelbon would thus be punished for the shortcomings of his teammates, despite having a representative season in his own right.

But if the Phillies are serious about freeing up money to build around Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay in 2013, the time to slip out of the knot that is Papelbon’s contract is now.

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At the quarter pole of the 2012 season, the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in unfamiliar territory—staring up at the rest of the National League East.  And while the Phightins are off to their slowest start in the last five years, there’s still reason to believe Philadelphia can claim its sixth consecutive division crown.  

Here are five good reasons to believe.

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After starting out 2012 sluggishly, the Philadelphia Phillies have put the pedal to the medal over the last week, winning six straight games and seven out of eight against San Diego, Houston, Chicago, and now Boston.

There have been plenty of disappointments so far—Chad Qualls, John Mayberry Jr, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino—but plenty of Phillies have made inroads in their careers as they soar past expectations.

The offense seems back on track, with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley set to return within the next six weeks, the starting pitching is as solid as ever and the fielding hasn’t dipped since last year with the exception of a few extreme cases. Even though they are four games back and last in the division, this team seems poised to make a run thanks to a handful of players making the most of their playing time. 

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After a disastrous September, Boston missed the postseason for the second straight season. We saw a major upheaval of the organization and the roster.

Theo Epstein and Terry Francona left.

Ben Cherington and Bobby Valentine are here.

The front office made several moves during the offseason to try and revamp the team with hopes of making a postseason run in 2012. This included letting players walk during free agency as well as trading players to try and give the team a new feel.

Here are six players that didn’t return to Boston after their epic collapse last season and have made strides to help their new teams.

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Brad Lidge was signed by the Washington Nationals this week for a million dollars over one season. A bargain compared to what some closers have picked up during this offseason. But did the Nationals make the right move?

The role of closer in Major League Baseball has evolved over the last few years into an elite spot on the roster, worthy of much talk, praise and big, fat contracts. But statistically, and historically, it simply doesn’t make any sense.

Evidence such as this study from 2004 by David W. Smith indicates that teams that have held a lead after eight innings have won their games 95 per cent of the time. This has held true throughout the history of baseball.

In fact, the worst record he could find in a century of numbers was the 1978 Seattle Mariners, who still sealed the deal in the ninth 80.4 percent of the time.

This off-season has seen a bunch of closers moving around and signing significant contracts. The biggest was Jonathan Papelbon signing a four-year, $50 million contract with Philadelphia.

We’ve also seen Ryan Madson sign with Cincinnati for one year, $10 million, Heath Bell sign with Miami for three years, $27 million, and Joe Nathan sign with Texas for $14.5 million over two years.

Overall, I’ve noted 10 closers signed for an average of $7.18 million per year in just this free-agent season alone. 

But given that a typical team will win virtually every game they play where they enter the ninth with a lead no matter who is pitching, this seems like a massive waste of money.

The Jonathan Papelbons, Mariano Riveras and John Axfords of the baseball world are put on a pedestal and worshipped for their prowess at slamming the door at the end of the game. And they are paid accordingly.

But it simply doesn’t matter.

Given that teams carrying the lead into the final inning are almost certainly going to win, regardless of who is on the mound, it makes absolutely no sense for teams to be rolling truckloads of money up to the doors of these guys.

Better to spread the money around to a stable of decent arms in relief and just pick the guy with the most rest.

Getting Lidge for only a million a year is pretty cheap for a proven arm, even if he’s past his prime at age 35. That’s a third of the average MLB salary and for a guy filling a high-profile, but statistically irrelevant role, that’s the right price.

Papelbon’s $12.5 million a year? Not so much.

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