Kuzul

When the Red Sox traded one of their all-time best players, Nomar Garciaparra, they entered a state of turmoil with regard to the shortstop position.

The Red Sox acquired Orlando Cabrera in 2004, followed quickly by Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. A combination of Lugo, Jed Lowrie, Alex Cora, Nick Green and Alex Gonzalez were used between 2007 and 2009.

Finally, the Red Sox signed Marco Scutaro, who started for the Red Sox in 2010. All in all, nine Red Sox started at least 50 games for the Red Sox since 2004.

Entering 2011, the Red Sox have two main options at shortstop. They can opt to continue starting Marco Scutaro, who was mediocre in 2010; or move on to Jed Lowrie, whose three stints on the disabled list since 2009 have limited his opportunities.

The Red Sox do have Jose Iglesias waiting in the minor leagues. Iglesias was ranked the 42nd best prospect in the league earlier this winter by Major League Baseball. However, he does not appear to be ready to move up to the majors, at least as a starter. It appears that 2012 is the most likely debut time for Iglesias.

Many have debated on whether to start Lowrie or Scutaro in 2011. Keep in mind that a combination of the two is certainly possible, due to Lowrie’s extreme split statistics. To compare the two, I will compare the two in each aspect of the game: ability to score runs, ability to drive runs in, and fielding. Let us begin with each player’s ability to score runs. 

Ability to Score Runs:

Marco Scutaro: Scutaro is not a particularly great on-base hitter. He has a career on-base percentage of just .336. In 2009, his on-base percentage was very respectable, reaching .379, though that appears to be somewhat of a fluke when compared to his other seasons.

Scutaro also has a poor slugging percentage; in his career he has slugged just .385, and .388 in 2010. The reason this relates to his ability to score runs is because it shows his inability to get in scoring position. He has mediocre at best speed to make matters worse. The 2009 campaign was the only season Scutaro stole more than seven bases, and he reverted back to his norm in 2010 by stealing just five bases on nine attempts.

All in all, Scutaro is not strong in this category, which is not a good sign for his 2011 prospects as the Red Sox have a sufficient amount of power hitters, they simply need players to get on base and in scoring position.

Jed Lowrie: While Lowrie does not have phenomenal major league statistics, that is likely due to his injuries and lack of playing time. In 2010 though, Lowrie did post a .381 on-base percentage in 171 at-bats, which is very encouraging.  

In the minors, Lowrie has demonstrated above average on-base potential. His last full season was 2007, during which his on-base percentage reached .393.

In 2008, his on-base percentage in the minors was .359, which is still respectable. Injuries limited Lowrie to just 114 minor league at-bats and 239 major league at-bats, so Lowrie is a bit of a wild card entering 2011. For that reason, he is a player to watch during spring training.

With regards to Lowrie’s ability to reach scoring position, he does have an advantage over Scutaro. In his major league career (499 at-bats), Lowrie has a .425 slugging percentage. That number is not phenomenal, though it trumps Scutaro’s .385 slugging percentage by a lot.

In his minor league career, Lowrie’s slugging percentage has fluctuated between .374 and .503 in seasons with 200+ at-bats. Lowrie is not known for stealing bases; he is two for three in 499 career major league at-bats. 

If Lowrie had continued his pace in 2010 for the same number of at-bats as Scutaro, he would have scored 114 runs to Scutaro’s 92. In conclusion, Lowrie gets the edge in ability to get into scoring position and reach home plate.

Ability to Drive Runs In:

Marco Scutaro: Scutaro has never been known as a power hitter, mostly due to the fact that he has never been a power hitter. In 2009, he hit a career high 12 home runs, followed by a second best of his career 11 home runs in 2010. For a shortstop, these totals are very mediocre.

Scutaro’s career ISO (Isolated Power) is .118. For comparison’s sake, Derek Jeter has a career .139 ISO and Dustin Pedroia has a career .156 ISO. Clearly, Scutaro lacks in this category.

Scutaro, like most MLB players, is much better with runners in scoring position. He had a .297 batting average in these situations with 45 RBI in 128 at-bats. These stats are not head-turning by any standard, though they show Scutaro will not be a liability when he has opportunities to drive in runs. 

Again, Scutaro is nothing to be ecstatic about in this category.

Jed Lowrie: Despite hitting nine home runs in just 171 at-bats in 2010, Lowrie is not truly a power hitter. In the minors, he hit double digit home runs in just one season, though his at-bats were very limited just about every year. Lowrie has 13 to 18 home run potential, though it is likely that he will fall short of that range given 500 at-bats in 2011. 

However, Lowrie’s ISO has been much higher than that of Scutaro. In his 499 major league at-bats, his ISO has been .172, though that is heavily influenced by his surprising 2010 power which can not be expected in 2011.

In the minors, Lowrie’s ISO has varied between the low .110s to the low .200s. He has the potential to be a relatively strong run producer among shortstops, though he is not a guarantee, especially coming off of an injury.

Scutaro is the safer choice, though Lowrie has the potential to be a bigger threat.

Defensive Prowess:

Marco Scutaro: Among qualified shortstops in 2010, Scutaro ranked 14th out of 21 in UZR with a -2.9 showing. He fared no better in terms of fielding percentage, as he ranked 17th among qualified shortstops with a poor .965 fielding percentage. Scutaro has never been an elite defender, and if his age gives him problems in 2011, he may become a liability for the Red Sox.

Jed Lowrie: Lowrie does not have a sufficient amount of major league statistics to have a sense of where he stands as a fielder relative to other major leagues. However, he has been touted in this regard.

In 2008, when Lowrie was just 24, Francona said about Lowrie playing third and shortstop, “We’re talking about a kid making his debut in the major leagues and he’s going back and forth between third and short. And he’s really handled it quite well. He’s done it not only in different games, but in the middle of games.”

Based on his little major league experience, it appears that Lowrie will develop into an above average fielder.

The Verdict:

If I had to choose one of the two shortstops to start all 162 games in 2011, I would likely choose Scutaro due to his consistency. However, I am not restricted to this, and truthfully the best option is a platoon based on the opposing pitchers.

In his career, Lowrie has been dominant against right-handed pitching and miserable against lefties. Here are his career splits:

Versus lefties (170 at-bats): .324 batting average/30 runs/7 home runs/36 RBI/1 stolen base

Versus righties (324 at-bats): .216 batting average/40 runs/6 home runs/45 RBI/1 stolen base

Clearly, he should be the starter against opposing left-handed pitchers. On the other hand, he should sit every game against righties.

Entering the 2011 season, the best plan for the Red Sox is for Scutaro to be the main starter, with Lowrie playing the majority of the games against left-handed pitchers, and also pinch-hitting versus lefties. This way, the two will complement each other’s skill sets and lower their injury risk by reducing their number of games played. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In the blitzkrieg of high-profile signings that has been the Red Sox’ offseason, too easily have nagging questions escaped our rose-colored tunnel vision. As star-struck as Boston fans are right now, we’d be sealing our own fates if we hitched our hopes to two free agents and threw caution to the wind.

One important decision yet to be made is who mans the shortstop position in 2011. As critical as the starting pitching is to the Red Sox’ fortunes, it seems highly unlikely that any additions or subtractions will be made at this point. That hand has been dealt.

But Terry Francona can still improve the Red Sox in small but significant ways if he makes the tough decision to start Jed Lowrie over Marco Scutaro. Here are six reasons why…

Begin Slideshow

The Boston Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy recently entertained the idea the Red Sox would make a serious run to sign free agent shortstop Derek Jeter.

Rumors of a Jeter-to-Boston move have been afloat since negotiations between Derek and Yankees ownership have significantly chilled. Then, the New York Post ran a picture of Jeter on the back page, sporting a photo-shopped Red Sox jersey and hat.

As a Red Sox fan, I find the prospect of Jeter ending his career in Boston quite humorous. If he were a fairly inexpensive player and fine with the idea that his role as a starter wouldn’t be guaranteed over the long term, I wouldn’t have much of a problem with the Red Sox going after him.

But Derek Jeter is not a role-player. He’s made it perfectly clear that he’s not looking for a pay cut or a hometown discount. While the idea that Jeter could get his 3,000th career hit in a Boston uniform is a nice thought, it’s not worth $45 million.

In his article, Shaughnessy’s normally mediocre prose bordered on putridity. Vast, unsupported generalizations tumble over each other, all in an attempt to appear relevant and in the know. Statements like these are peppered all over Shaughnessy’s piece:

“I don’t care if Jeter is way past his prime or if the Sox would have to wildly overpay a player of his diminished skills.”

The fact of the matter is Shaughnessy is wrong. Derek Jeter doesn’t belong on the Boston Red Sox.

As most of you know, catcher Victor Martinez recently signed a four-year, $50 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. The move was, for the most part, unpopular in Boston, as his bat has been one of the strongest presences in the middle of the Red Sox lineup over the last season-and-a-half.

But the move, however unpopular, can be supported by the idea that the Sox would likely end up overpaying for him. Catchers notoriously begin to decline in their early mid-30s; Martinez will be 32 to start next season. The Sox don’t want to commit multiple millions of dollars to a player who will likely end up only a part-time catcher, making just as many appearances at DH or 1B as he would behind the plate. The declining role of the DH in the AL is giving managers more and more roster flexibility, so Martinez’ numbers wouldn’t warrant a permanent residence their or at first base, perhaps the deepest position in baseball.

Jeter, just like Martinez, probably has limited time left as an everyday Major League shortstop. No longer the athlete he once was, the 36-year-old doesn’t range nearly as far in the hole as he used to, and his defense has suffered. All signs point to an eventual transition to third base or even DH.

So, I’ll pose this question. Why would the Red Sox sign Jeter to a deal of similar or greater length/money to the deal Martinez received from Detroit? Both pose the same questions in terms of long-term production versus their career dominance of their respective positions. The only differences? Martinez is four years younger, and hasn’t begun to slip yet. Just compare their 2010 numbers:

Jeter:         663 AB   179 H   10 HR   67 RBI   .270/.340/.370

Martinez:   493 AB   149 H   20 HR   79 RBI   .302/.351/.493

Given the same number of ABs as Jeter, Martinez would have well exceeded him in hits, and already surpasses him in every other offensive category. Martinez is a better fit for Boston than Jeter is, but the Red Sox let him go. It just wouldn’t make any sense to then pursue Jeter.

And if Jeter were to come to Boston, he probably wouldn’t have a role as the shortstop. It might not seem like it, but the Sox have some decent options in the six hole going into 2011. The Red Sox have veteran Marco Scutaro under contract for one more year and $5 million. His 2010 numbers might not seem that impressive…until you compare them to Jeter’s:

Jeter:     663 AB   179 H   10 HR   67 RBI   .270/.340/.370

Scutaro: 632 AB   174 H   11 HR   56 RBI   .275/.333/.388

For one fourth of the cost, Scutaro provided nearly identical production to Jeter in 2010.

Also, there are a number of underlying factors that fans of other teams might overlook when evaluating Scutaro’s performance in 2010. Despite playing nearly the entire season with neck and shoulder injuries, Scutaro appeared in 150 games for the Sox in 2010. He was one of the few constants on an otherwise injury-laden Red Sox team. Scutaro’s injuries severely impacted his range going to his right side, yet he was reliably defensively. Also, with runners in scoring position, Scutaro’s offensive production increased dramatically:

RISP: 128 AB   38 H   2 HR   48 RBI   .297/.380/.375.

So, taking all of these factors into account, one truth remains.

Marco Scutaro was a better player than Derek Jeter in 2010.

Also, 26-year-old SS Jed Lowrie finally put it together last year for the Red Sox. Once touted as one of the organization’s better prospects, Lowrie has been hampered by wrist injuries and even mononucleosis over parts of three seasons in the big leagues.

But when Dustin Pedroia went down the for the Sox last year, and injuries started to put serious doubts on Boston’s playoff hopes, Lowrie got his shot. And he delivered. Just look at his August/September splits:

August:        20 G   56 AB   4 HR   8 RBI   .304/.400/.571

September:  24 G   83 AB   3 HR   10 RBI   .265/.344/.458.

While his September numbers were not as good, they weren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, especially considering this was really the first time Lowrie had played an extended period of time as a Major League starter. 

Lowrie did quite a bit of shuffling around defensively last year (as did every healthy body the Red Sox had) in order to account for all the injuries. He actually made more appearances at second base than he did at short, and he even appeared in six games at first base. However, Lowrie’s splits at shortstop, his natural position, remain astronomical:

As shortstop: 23 G   71 AB   6 HR   13 RBI   .324/.422/.648.

Albeit in limited time, that’s still an OPS of 1.070. Like I said, astronomical.

It’s no secret that GM Theo Epstein has clearly been a fan of Lowrie ever since he made his debut with the team in 2008, and he’ll likely be able to seize the majority share of the shortstop duties from Scutaro, providing he shows good signs in spring training 2011.

The Red Sox did fine in the shortstop department last year. In fact, it was one of the few stable areas of output they had. But Shaughnessy would have you believe different. He would have you believe that a homerish obsession of showing the Yankees up is more important than putting a solid product on the baseball field:

“Jeter is closing in on 3,000 hits. Imagine if he gets his 3,000th hit as a Red Sox . . . at Fenway . . . against Mariano Rivera?”

It’s a nice thought, Dan, but it’s one for the movies. Pragmatically, it’s not plausible.

Also, it’s no secret that the Red Sox could possibly lose the best offensive player they had last season, 3B Adrian Beltre, to free agency. If Jeter were to come to the Red Sox, that would likely be his position.

But, the Red Sox would likely have to well outbid the Yankees current offer of three years and $45 million in order to bring him in. Reports have surfaced that Jeter is looking for $20 million or more per year for 4-5 years. If they’re going to spend that much on a corner infielder, why not just bring Beltre back?

Rumors of a five-year, $64 million offer from the Oakland Athletics have been floating around for the last few days. Whether or not this offer is in fact legit, something around that is a good estimate of what it would cost to bring Beltre back a member of the Sox.

So, when the dust is cleared, I think the Red Sox would rather have the younger, better defensive player and better offensive player (Beltre) than Jeter, especially considering the fact that their contracts could end up similar in both years and dollars.

But since the Red Sox didn’t bring back Martinez, and could possibly not bring Beltre back—they’ve obviously got some extra dough lying around. This is what Shaughnessy would have the Sox do with it:

“I say offer him the world. Forget about Jayson Werth. Blow Jeter away with dollars and years. At worst this would just mean the Sox would jack up the final price the Yankees must pay. It could be sort of like Mark Teixeira-in-reverse.”

Shaughnessy would rather blow it all on one guy. He doesn’t think that guys like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth are worthy of a large contract. He makes no mention of shoring up the bullpen with guys like Scott Downs, or the possibility of an Adrian Gonzalez trade and extension. Nope. Instead, he’d rather the Red Sox spend it all on Jeter.

Apparently, Shaughnessy doesn’t see “the harm” in completely avoiding reason:

“What’s the harm in offering Jeter $20 million a year over three years? If you can pay J.D. Drew $14 million per year . . . if you can pay a Japanese team $50 million just for the right to speak with Daisuke Matsuzaka . . . if you can buy a futbol club for $476 million, why not spend $60 million to bust pinstripe chops for all the ages?…If Jeter actually signed with Boston, the damage to the Yankees’ psyche would be inestimable.”

What’s the harm? Last time I checked, giving aging players very large, long-term deals isn’t the best way to go about winning championships, or building an organization for continual, long-term success. With Shaughnessy, it’s not about reason, it’s not even really about baseball for him. Rather, he still thinks it necessary for the Red Sox to needle and prod the Yankees at every given opportunity.

But does he not forget? The Yankees-Red Sox relationship is no longer what is used to be. No longer are the Boston nine the whipping Boys of the Bronx Bombers. Last time I checked, the “curse was reversed” already in 2004 and the Red Sox lead the Yankees in championships for this decade, 2-1.

There might’ve been a day where all Red Sox fans had to look forward to was the chance to embarrass the Yankees. But no longer. Those days are over. Still a formidable opponent, the Yankees are no longer the dynasty they once were; they’re no longer the perpetual oppressor that tormented Boston fans ever since that fateful day in 1920, when the Sox sold the greatest power hitter to ever live for a mere $100,000. 

The fact remains that with their financial flexibility and currently strong roster, the Sox are in just as good a position as anyone to win the American League East next season. But, to Shaughnessy, that means nothing if they can’t show up the Yankees in the process.

What he fails to realize, however, is that winning is the greatest burn of all.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

One month ago and this conversation would not have even scratched the surface of Red Sox nation.

But after Jed Lowrie’s 4-for-4 performance (including a home run and three singles) in a 10-8 win over the New York Yankees, the debate suddenly becomes a valid one.

Lowrie has become Boston’s starting shortstop after a rotator cuff injury sidelined opening day starter Marco Scutaro.

Scutaro will be healthy for 2011 and will be in the final year of his contract. Lowrie, however, will also be healthy for a change and offers more upside than the 34-year old journeyman. 

So who will manager Terry Francona decide to go with?

Here is a breakdown of the case for each player and a suggestion of what the final decision might be. Share your thoughts below.

Begin Slideshow

During his time in Boston, infielder Jed Lowrie has been the butt of many jokes by Red Sox fans. He has been criticized constantly for his apparent lack of any visible baseball skill set and has been labeled “injury prone” by the hometown fans.

In 2009, the former first round draft pick suffered a wrist injury that eventually led to his placement on the 60-day DL and arthroscopic surgery. He was out for almost three months and yet returned to the DL again a little more than two weeks after his return, again with another wrist injury.

In 2010, Mononucleosis delayed Lowrie’s first appearance with the club until late July.

Ironically enough, a rash of injuries opened the door for Lowrie to play full time, almost as soon as he returned from his third DL stint in two seasons.

And what did Lowrie do? Something he had never done before at the Major League level: hit.

In August, Lowrie went 17-56 at the plate (.304) through 20 games. His four home runs that month doubled his major league total through two prior seasons.

Lowrie also posted a blistering .971 OPS through August, second on the team only to Darnell McDonald.

He no longer looks utterly confused at the plate, swinging at mythical fastball after fastball, only to discover later that pitchers in the big leagues can actually throw good breaking stuff.

While Lowrie’s numbers have cooled off a bit in the month of September, the damage has been done. He’s shown that he can play well for an extended period of time on the Major League level, something that, quite frankly, he’s never proven before.

Lowrie’s success provides complications for the 2011 Red Sox but in a good way.

Continued improvement could lead to Jed finding more and more playing time next year, especially with the potential departure of super-utility man Bill Hall. 

Hall is due $9.25 Million in 2011 but also has a $500,000 buy-out clause which the Sox most certainly will exercise, making him a free agent.

The Sox still could resign Hall, but his success this season could make it harder to get him at a cheap enough rate. Even if he was to return, Hall would be one of the priciest backups in the game.

The departure of Hall would open a roster spot that Jed Lowrie would most certainly be first in line to inherit. Lowrie has experience at all the infield positions other than catcher and can provide reliable albeit less-than-flashy defense.

Lowrie could also find more playing time next year, depending on the status of current Red Sox shortstop Marco Scutaro. 

Scutaro will be 35 next season, as he enters the final guaranteed year of his contract with the Red Sox. While Scutaro’s play has been one of the most consistent things about the Red Sox in 2010, one has to wonder if 2011 will prove to be the same for the veteran.

Any injury-related issues or slippage of play for Scutaro could lead to Lowrie seeing more and more time at shortstop, his natural position. If the Red Sox feel he could handle the bulk of the time at SS in 2012, Scutaro’s $1.5 million buyout could be exercised.

Most importantly, the future of Jed Lowrie hinges on his performance for the rest of the season and whether or not he can carry his improvement over into 2011. The Red Sox seem generally unwilling to part with him, and it appears as if both the Red Sox coaching staff and GM Theo Epstein believe he can be a valuable piece to the team going forward.

We’ll see what the future holds for Jed. The ball is certainly in his court.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com