Tag: Horsehide Chronicles

Is Matt Garza Really Worth a Top-of-the-Rotation Asking Price in a Trade?

Matt Garza is arguably the best starting pitcher on the Chicago Cubs. He’s certainly the best starting pitcher on the trade market this year. And that’s good news for the Cubs, as their ongoing rebuild could very much benefit from a trade of Garza to a team that needs him more than they do.

All of this, however, doesn’t necessarily make Garza a top-of-the-rotation starter.

David Kaplan of CSN Chicago notes there’s plenty of interest in Garza, who is up for free-agency at season’s end. Kaplan also adds this:

What I found interesting in talking with a handful of major league executives is that Garza is not considered a No. 1 or 2 in a rotation, but is considered a very strong No. 3 and the price the Cubs front office is asking for is exceptionally high. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are looking at this as a chance to hit the jackpot and I would do the same thing if I was in their shoes. However, rival GM’s don’t want to part with a few elite level prospects for somebody they will only have for 14 or 15 starts in the regular season.

Later on in the article, Kaplan includes this:

A year ago, the Milwaukee Brewers traded Zack Greinke to the Angels and received three prospects including standout shortstop Jean Segura and two Double-A pitchers. Of the baseball personnel experts I spoke with, the consensus is the Cubs will probably not receive as much as the Brewers did but should come close. 

The takeaway of all this: Garza is not viewed as an ace-level pitcher, especially not in relation to Greinke and the assets the Brewers were able to get for him last year.

Kaplan mentioned that he found it “interesting” that rival executives aren’t very high on Garza. With a 3.17 ERA and a killer hot streak in progress, you’d think they would be.

Then I dug a little deeper, and I realized, yeah, I can see it.

First, there’s the matter of Garza’s hot stretch. He’s logged 43.2 innings over his last six starts and has racked up a 1.24 ERA, but, naturally, there’s a catch. In this case, it’s the fact that Garza hasn’t been feasting on top-flight competition.

Observe:

Date Opponent Runs/G OPS
 6/16  at NYM   4.13  .680
 6/21  vs. HOU  3.73  .668
 6/27  at MIL  3.93  .714
 7/3  at OAK   4.52  .718 
 7/8  at CHW  3.75  .686 
 7/13  vs. STL  4.97  .753

And now for some context: The league average for runs per game is 4.23 and the league-average OPS is .718.

So Garza has faced four below-average offensive teams in his last six starts: the New York Mets, Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox and Brewers—and it’s worth noting that he faced a Ryan Braun-less Milwaukee lineup.

The A’s do score runs at a good rate, but their OPS is right at the league average.

That leaves the St. Louis Cardinals as the best hitting team Garza has faced in his last six starts. Lo and behold, that was his worst start of the bunch. After managing game scores of at least 66 in his previous five starts, Garza only scored 48 against St. Louis.

If I’m an executive, I’m bringing all this up as part of an attempt to talk down Garza’s price tag. In addition, I’m pointing out that Garza hasn’t showcased No. 1 starter stuff this season.

Per Brooks Baseball, Garza’s average four-seamer velocity this season is 93.51 miles per hour. One’s roaming eye notices that Garza’s average last year was 94.25 miles per hour.

Slipping fastball velocity isn’t the only question concerning Garza’s stuff.

Garza throws a four-seamer and a sinker, but both pitches are obviously of the “hard stuff” variety. Garza complements those two hard pitches with only one offspeed pitch that he throws with regularity: his slider. It’s a good one, but Garza doesn’t have a changeup to keep hitters guessing and his curveball is just OK and infrequently used.

Since Greinke is the measuring stick for Garza’s trade value, an executive can easily point to him and note the differences between his repertoire in 2012 and Garza’s repertoire in 2013.

According to Brooks Baseball, Greinke threw five pitches at least 10 percent of the time last year: his four-seamer, sinker, cutter, slider and curveball. He also threw his changeup about 6.5 percent of the time, which is far more often than Garza.

Garza’s ERA is better, as he has a 3.17 ERA to the 3.32 ERA Greinke had at the break last year. But if we go to FanGraphs and dig up some other numbers, we notice that’s about the only edge Garza has over Greinke. 

Player GS IP K% BB% GB% HR/FB FIP xFIP WAR
 Greinke  19  111.0  24.4  5.7  53.8  6.6  2.38  2.80  3.5
 Garza  11  71.0  21.2  6.8  39.8  10.3  3.79  3.87  0.9

Never mind the starts and the innings for a moment. Focus on everything else, which all sends a pretty clear message:

Greinke in the first half of 2012 was much better than Garza has been in the first half of this season.

Greinke was striking out more hitters, walking fewer hitters, racking up more ground balls, serving up fewer home runs, putting up better defense-neutral stats (FIP and xFIP) and generally provided greater overall value for his team. In fact, Greinke was providing more value than all but one other starting pitcher at the time, only Justin Verlander had a better fWAR than Greinke at the break last year.

The fact that Garza’s numbers don’t stack up isn’t the only issue. His FIP and xFIP both say his 3.17 ERA is a little too good, a sign that he could be in for some regression. And lest you choose not to trust either stat, consider that since the start of 2011, Garza’s 3.45 ERA is on par with his 3.45 FIP and a 3.43 xFIP.

Slightly more concerning is the fact that Garza’s strikeouts are down compared to his past two seasons. So is his ground-ball percentage, which is generally not a good sign unless it’s paired with a rise in strikeouts. More balls in the air, after all, means more balls that might find their way over the fence. 

And then, at last, we come to the fact that Garza has only made 11 starts, which is due to his missing the first 43 days of the season recovering from a lat strain he suffered in spring training. Injuries are a real concern with him, as Baseball Prospectus counts that Garza has lost 129 days to the disabled list in the last three seasons.

What I’m getting at here is that Garza is a waste of time that nobody should have any interest in trading f…

Wait, hang on, that’s not what I’m getting at. Need to dial it down.

What I’m really getting at is that the execs around the league who view Garza as a non-ace who isn’t worth a Greinke-like trade package have some legs to stand on. Garza has certainly racked up numbers befitting of a top-of-the-rotation guy in his last six starts, but it’s a stretch that’s really not indicative of the kind of pitcher he is. A “very strong No. 3” is a description that suits him well.

There’s a chance, however, that none of this will matter. The Cubs have a hot pitcher on their hands and a lot of interest in said hot pitcher. All it takes is one GM who’s more desperate than all the others, a few words back and forth, and the Cubs could be welcoming an impressive basket of prospects in no time at all.

If it comes to that, there will be some fist-pumping going on in the Cubs’ front office, for it will have traded a non-ace starter for an ace-level package.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. 

 

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Can the Home Run Derby Ever Be the Same Without the Steroid Era?

“Back, back, back, back, back…GONE!”

That’s a home run call we’re bound to hear come Monday’s Home Run Derby (lookin‘ at you, Chris Berman). It’s fair to wonder whether the derby remains as captivating as it once was, or if the appeal, like the baseballs that will be launched out of Citi Field, is gone.

Back in the mid-1990s to mid-2000s, the theory goes, sluggers like Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr. and Barry Bonds made the event must-watch theater. 

Of course, back then, the stench of performance-enhancing drugs hadn’t yet infiltrated our then-naive noses, so everyone enjoyed tuning in to see how far Big Mac, Slammin‘ Sammy, The Kid and Mr. 73 could hit ’em.

Now, though, we know better. Many—but not all, to be clear—of those performers were just a bit, well, enhanced. Such is life in baseball amid the (hopefully) post-steroid era.

Who could forget McGwire hitting towering shots at Fenway Park in Boston in 1999? His 13 in the first round established a record for any one round at the time, and each homer seemingly went farther than the last as they soared over the Green Monster.

As Jayson Stark of ESPN wrote in recalling the 25 greatest derby moments:

We take you back to another time, a different era, when Big Mac was still baseball’s most beloved, almost-mythical figure. And nine months after breaking the 70-homer barrier, he turned Fenway into his own personal Derby stage.

He, too, didn’t “win” this Derby. (Ken Griffey Jr. did.) But in the first round, McGwire terrorized New Englanders from Kenmore Square to Kennebunkport with a then-record 13-homer round that amounted to 5,692 feet worth of bombage. His ultimate highlight: a 488-foot mortar that whooshed beyond the Green Monster, cleared the street, soared over a parking garage and hit a billboard above the train tracks, right next to the never-reached Massachusetts Turnpike.

“Once he got in his groove,” said his personal pitcher that night, then-Padres coach Tim Flannery, “it was like feeding the great white shark.”

The following year, there was Sosa at Turner Field in Atlanta, where he walloped a whopping 26—the most in derby history at the time.

Again, here’s Stark:

To most people, Sosa’s signature Derby was the 2002 show in Milwaukee. But this one still ranks as the personal favorite of the only real Derby historian we know — the Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR’s David Vincent. As the Sultan ducked for cover in the auxiliary press box out in left-center field, Sosa fired eight NASA shots that either landed in the upper deck or hit the facing. And he punctuated his only Derby title with a 508-foot monster mash over the home of the center-field TV cameras, which we’re still pretty sure was located closer to Savannah than home plate.

Sosa also did his thing at Milwaukee’s Miller Park in 2002, bashing 18 total, including 12 in Round 1, averaging, oh, just 477 feet.

He was 87 miles up the interstate from his home turf. And Slammin‘ Sammy Sosa knew just what he was there for. So he took over Milwaukee’s first Derby as only he could.

In the first round, Sosa squashed 12 home runs. And while that was only tied, at the time, for the third-biggest round ever, this was one round you needed to measure in mileage, not homers. Those 12 home runs traveled an average of (no kidding) 477 feet. And it seemed like more.

Sosa clattered a home run off Bernie Brewer’s slide, another that sailed over the humongous center-field scoreboard and three home runs that exited a domed stadium (through the windows, that is). Seven of those home runs carried 500 feet-plus. Nine went 490-plus. So even the eventual “winner” that day, Jason Giambi, couldn’t stop talking about Sosa.

“I don’t think anything can hold him,” Giambi said, “except Yellowstone.”

Meanwhile, Griffey—who doesn’t have the same PED link, direct or indirect, that other derby participants did—was perhaps the poster boy for this everybody-loves-long-balls event. He won in 1994, 1998 and 1999 and remains the only three-time champ. His most memorable derby moment, though, might have come in one he didn’t win, as Stark notes:

Back in 1993, the Derby was still a one-round team competition — National League versus American League. But Griffey and Juan Gonzalez forced the first mano a mano grand finale by tying for the individual lead with seven each. Eventually, Gonzalez won the mash-off, but it was Griffey who left us with the most memorable moment when he cranked the first ball to hit the fabled B&O Warehouse, on the other side of Eutaw Street, on the fly. There’s still a plaque on that warehouse that marks the spot.

Since the last time any of those three participated in 2004—Sosa was eliminated in 2004 after hitting just five in the first round, while Bonds hit 11 through two rounds but fell short of the finals—Major League Baseball has tried out a few different tactics in an effort to maintain the interest level.

(Not to mention, it was around that time that MLB adopted and instituted drug testing.)

It was almost as if the league realized that with many of the greatest sluggers of the generation either at or nearing the end, there would need to be something else to keep fans tuning in.

And so in advance of the inaugural 2006 World Baseball Classic, there was the experimental World competition in 2005 when all eight players hailed from different countries.

Also in 2005, the “gold balls” were introduced. Now, whenever a hitter gets to nine outs, golden baseballs are used and every home run hit with one of those counts for money toward charity.

And as you’re well aware, the latest innovation came in 2011, as the derby adopted an American League versus National League format and introduced the captain concept, whereby one player from each league—this year, it’s Robinson Cano for the AL and David Wright for the NL—is chosen ahead of time and offers personal invitations to others to compete on his side.

While these various tinkerings may help add intrigue and/or interest, let’s be real: It’s the performances that make a derby memorable.

Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, there have been a few of those since 2005, too, that show the Home Run Derby has been—and can still be—as fun and exciting as it used to be.

Like…Bobby Abreu at Detroit’s Comerica Park in 2005, as he…just…kept…hitting…homers. In Round 1, Abreu totaled an incredible 24 dingers. That set a new mark for the most in a round, essentially laughing in the face of Miguel Tejada’s 15 from the previous year. (By the way, David Ortiz also hit 17 in the first round.) Abreu’s 41 four-baggers in total also set the all-time derby record, which still stands.

Like…then-breakout star Ryan Howard at PNC Park in Pittsburgh in 2006, when Howard, on his way to a 58-homer campaign and the NL MVP, put on a show by beating Wright by one homer, 23-22. Cooler still, one of Howard’s mammoth shots actually hit the banner beyond the bleachers in right-center field that read “Hit it Here 500 Flights” to win the promotion for fan Bert Brooks of Plum Borough, Pa.:

Like…The Josh Hamilton Show in 2008, which happened at old Yankee Stadium in its final season. That night, in which he smashed 28 home runs in the first round to break Abreu’s record, Hamilton looked like he was wielding a graphite four-iron rather than a wooden stick. It never really mattered that Hamilton wound up losing to Justin Morneau in the finals.

Like…when Ortiz went pretty freakin‘ nuts at Angel Stadium in 2010, mashing 32 overall and doing so pretty consistently: He slugged eight in Round 1, then 13 in the semis and 11 in the finals to hold off Hanley Ramirez by six.

Like…Cano winning it in 2011 at Chase Field in Arizona, thanks in no small part to his father, Jose, a former big league pitcher, throwing him perfect batting-practice fastballs down and in. The smiles and embrace after the derby-winning launch to defeat Adrian Gonzalez made the moment all the more special.

Like…Royals fans booing Cano at Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium last year for not inviting their own Billy Butler to participate. Maybe it got to him: A year after taking the crown, Cano wound up getting shut out, the first time a player hung a zero since Brandon Inge did so in 2009 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. That ’09 derby, by the way, was won by Prince Fielder. He reclaimed the title last year to extend a rather noteworthy run by lefty sluggers, who have won five straight derbies and 10 of the past 12.

This year, that bodes well for lefty mashers like Chris Davis, who has an MLB-high 35 homers so far, or Pedro Alvarez, who will be a last-minute replacement for Carlos Gonzalez, or Fielder, who will be aiming to join Griffey by wearing the crown for a third time.

The Home Run Derby may not have a McGwire or Sosa anymore, but there have been plenty of memorable moments since—and in some ways, the event actually is better off for it.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


An Open Letter to Ruben Amaro Jr. to Commit to Phillies Fire Sale

Dear Mr. Amaro Jr.,

First off, congratulations!

You’ve had a nice little run as a key decision-maker for the Philadelphia Phillies, a team you’ve been an executive with since 1998. You served as assistant general manager until 2008, at which point not only did your team win it all, but you were also promoted to general manager.

You even managed to make a few blockbusters of your own since taking over for Pat Gillick. Some of them worked out well enough, like the trades for Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. The deal for Roy Oswalt? That wasn’t so bad either. That Hunter Pence trade helped at the time, too.

Many of the bigger, more recent moves, though, have been questionable transactions at best.

Like inking Ryan Howard to a $125 million extension when you didn’t have to or giving Jonathan Papelbon $50 million to pitch 60 innings a year.

And hate to pile on here, but how’s that $144 million you gave Cole Hamels—he of the 3-11 record and 4.38 ERA—this time last year looking right about now?

Even though they don’t qualify as major moves, let’s not even get into the Young and Young (Delmon and Michael) pickups this year as you were trying to plug holes in your sinking ship with a little Elmer’s. You had good intentions, no doubt, with all of these, trying to make a championship-winning core better—or at least prolonging the window of opportunity—but a lot of them were a tad shortsighted.

Maybe you were trying to make your own mark after succeeding a Hall of Famer.

Which is why it’s even more important that you don’t lose sight of your position this time.

This year is huge for your future, as well as that of the Philadelphia Phillies. With the club stuck in no man’s land—the Phils are 44-46 and 6.5 games out of a playoff spot entering play Tuesday—you’ve wavered about whether you’re going to buy or sell this month.

But you got hit with a big blow recently when Howard went down with a torn meniscus in his left knee that will require surgery and keep him out up to two months. That might finally push you into the seller bucket.

At least, one would hope.

Not that Howard has been all that great. In fact, that massive extension you gave him kicked in just last season. Meaning through the first part of that deal, Howard has given you a triple-slash line of .244/.307/.445 in two injury-plagued seasons.

Even factoring in the knee problem, that’s not pretty.

That performance actually led you, Mr. Amaro, to call out Howard in a pregame interview show on 94 WIP in Philadelphia:

If Ryan Howard is now relegated to being a platoon player, he’s a very expensive platoon player and he needs to be better. I think he knows it. I know he’s struggling, I know he’s not happy with his performance — neither are we. I think he’s going to be better, but right now, he’s just not doing the job.

Furthermore, it’s fair to question, as Dan Szymborski did for ESPN Insider, whether Howard’s contract is a total loss. Already.

But it’s not just Howard. Halladay may miss the rest of the year after finally succumbing in early May to arm and shoulder problems that had plagued him for the better part of a year. Reliever Mike Adams, who was given a two-year deal this offseason, is also very likely gone for the year.

Factor in the ages and contract situations of the core group who was responsible for a World Series title that came five years ago, and, well, it’s a pretty easy decision.

Time to sell, Mr. Amaro.

You seemed to realize this last week when you told CSN Philly: “If we continue to play the way we play sporadically, then I’m going to have to consider being a seller.”

The good news? You’ve got some chips in the cupboard.

There’s Lee, who’s pitching as well as always and who would unquestionably be the top arm on the market, even with the $25 million-a-year price tag that comes with him through 2015. Dealing Lee would not only net some young talent, it would allow you to free up some money to spend elsewhere in the future.

There’s Chase Utley, who’s a free-agent-to-be and recently came back from yet another stint on the disabled list. Trading the guy who was inarguably the heart and soul of the franchise for a decade would be a hard pill to swallow, but it’s better than letting him walk away at season’s end for nothing. Especially when Utley’s still hitting extremely well and could command a solid return.

There’s Papelbon, who’s a luxury you simply cannot afford. He’s a high-priced closer on a sub-.500 team that’s been headed in the wrong direction for a few years now. The $13 mill a year he’s owed through at least 2015 will make him a tad tougher to trade, but it’s a down reliever market and there are some teams desperate enough for a closer (cough, Detroit, cough) to take that contract off your hands.

Lord knows, with more than $80 million still going into Howard’s bank account through 2016, you’ll need it.

There are others, too, like right-hander Kyle Kendrick, who would help a team in need of a mid-rotation arm. Then there’s the Young boys, with Michael capable of being a utility player or injury replacement at multiple spots and, hey, Delmon has that spiffy postseason résumé that might entice a contender.

Another key factor here is that there just aren’t many teams in sell mode yet, with maybe a handful of clubs ready to cash in their chips. Mr. Amaro, if you get in there sooner or later—like now—you could make some real headway toward rebuilding the Phillies and restoring them to the team that was among the best in baseball over the past decade.

Beyond that, you’ll open up spots for younger players to prove themselves.

You’ve got Darin Ruf, who can get a look at first base while Howard is out. And Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez can handle second base if you move Utley. Third basemen Cody Asche and Maikel Franco aren’t far off, especially once you clear Michael Young out of the way. Tommy Joseph, whom you got from the Giants last July for Pence, could be your catcher of the future.

And in the rotation, it’s time to see if lefties Jesse Biddle and Adam Morgan as well as righties Tyler Cloyd and Ethan Martin can make like Jonathan Pettibone and join Hamels.

So, Mr. Amaro, you’re the decision-maker here. It’s time to decide.

If you’re still not sure what to do, well, here’s a hint:

The writing’s on the wall, and it reads “Sell.”

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


7 New MLB Names Who Could Become Trade Bait If Their Teams Struggle in July

There are several teams on the cusp of falling out of playoff contention, which is always fun as it opens up the potential for even more trade rumors.

Seven teams—the Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox—are currently more than 10 games back of a playoff spot, a very tough spot from which to bounce back. More could join them soon in the land of non-contenders. 

Teams like the Blue Jays (43-45, lost nine of last 14), Giants (40-48, lost 12 of their last 14), Padres (40-50, 10 consecutive losses), Rockies (43-47, lost 14 of their last 20) and Royals (42-44, lost 34 of their last 59) will need to make a decision of whether they are buyers or sellers in the next few weeks. If they play any worse than they have lately, veteran players from those teams could be shopped to contenders before the trade deadline.

Here are seven of the more interesting names that could be part of your daily Hot Stove news in the near future.

Begin Slideshow


Projecting Derek Jeter’s 2nd-Half Yankees Impact, by the Numbers

Derek Jeter has been able to do nothing but watch this year, and what he’s seen hasn’t been pretty.

As the veteran shortstop has been busy rehabbing a fractured left ankle that he suffered last October, the New York Yankees have been one of the most ineffective offensive teams in the American League. If their current pace holds, the Bombers are going to have their worst offensive season in over two decades.

Yankees fans can rest assured. The Captain will have something to say about that when he returns, and he won’t even have to be his old self in order to do so.

We’ll get to that soon enough. For now, here’s the good news: The time of Jeter’s return is finally drawing near.

Jeter just started a minor league rehab assignment a few days ago, but he told Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger and other reporters on Monday that he’s ready to go. Even Yankees manager Joe Girardi and general manager Brian Cashman admitted there’s a chance Jeter could make his return this weekend.

On Tuesday, that still sounds like a pretty real possibility. Here’s McCullough with the latest:

Nothing’s final, but there’s a chance Jeter will get his feet wet against the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium this weekend. Either way, it’s now pretty much a given that he’s going to be there in the second half to help the Yankees make a run.

But there’s the tricky part. Precisely how much will Jeter be able to help?

It’s a question I touched on a few weeks ago, but only very briefly and there was just as much attention paid to how Jeter is going to impact the Yankees’ lineup as there was to what his actual performance is going to be.

What I want to do here is focus more on his actual performance with the use of some super-fun-happy numbers.

One solution to this quandary would be to take a rough guess at what Jeter’s second-half numbers are going to be. But, nah. A better solution is to consult the Steamer projections.

According to FanGraphs, the Steamer system sees the following numbers in Jeter’s future:

GP AB BB H 2B 3B HR SB CS
56   228 19  66  11  1  4  4  2

The bottom line is a .288/.345/.389 slash line and a .734 OPS.

Such numbers look modest at first glance, especially in light of what Jeter did in 2012. He hit .316/.362/.429 and, of course, led the league in hits. If he goes from there to the numbers Steamer is projecting for him, he’ll be taking a step back offensively.

But now for why that makes perfect sense.

Steamer is projecting a 7.4 BB% and a 13.5 K% for Jeter. That’s because of what he’s done over the three previous seasons, in which he’s racked up a 7.4 BB% and a 13.3 K%. He’s always been a relatively low-walk and low-strikeout guy. He was just that in the last three seasons, and Steamer is expecting him to be just that once more down the stretch in 2013.

There’s also the .323 BABIP that Steamer is projecting for Jeter. That’s a far cry from the .347 BABIP he posted last year and a step down from the .330 BABIP he compiled between 2010 and 2012, but it’s fair because of what we know about 39-year-old hitters.

According to Baseball-Reference, only 11 39-year-olds in history to qualify for the batting title posted BABIPs as high as .320. Only five of those went as high as .330. So to a degree, a projected BABIP of .323 for Jeter is paying him a compliment. One I’d say he’s earned, given his history.

Then there’s the matter of Jeter’s projected ISO (Isolated Power) of .101. That’s a step back from the .113 ISO he posted last year but almost perfectly in line with the .102 ISO he racked up between 2010 and 2012. Also, Jeter only had a .095 ISO in his final 133 games last year, as the bulk of his power production came early in the season.

Lastly, there are those 56 games played. The Yankees have 67 games lined up for the second half, so Steamer is anticipating Jeter getting a lot of days off between now and the end of the season. Probably a few too many knowing him, but at the same time it is practical to anticipate the Yankees taking it easy with Jeter. They’d rather have him occasionally annoyed than broken again, after all.

From a league-wide perspective, the Steamer projections would make Jeter about an average offensive player. The Yankees will gladly take one of those for the second half, however, as getting average production from shortstop would be a huge leg up.

Here’s how the numbers projected for Jeter compare to the numbers the Yankees have actually gotten from their shortstops so far in 2013.

From GP AB BB H 2B 3B HR SB CS
Jeter 56   228 19  66  11  1  4  4  2
Yankees SS 89  311 23  66  13  2  2 11  1

Suddenly the numbers projected for Jeter don’t look so bad, do they? In fact, they look darn good.

How bad have Yankees shortstops been at the plate? Well, the Yankees are a lousy offensive team, so it’s saying something that they’ve gotten a worse OPS (.558) from shortstop than they have from any other position on the diamond. Jeter will be a ginormous upgrade.

In fact, what the heck. Let’s go ahead and put some numbers on it.

If you were wondering why I picked out the specific numbers I did for the tables above, it’s because those are the numbers one needs to make use of the Runs Created calculator over at Had2Know.

(Quick note: If you’re just now joining us from a multi-decade slumber, “Runs Created” is a stat that was developed by Bill James a while back that measures more or less what it says it measures: how many runs a player is worth to his team.)

By the formula used by Had2Know, Yankees shortstops have created 25 runs thus far in 2013, or about seven percent of the 349 runs the Yankees have scored. Given their horrid production, that sounds about right.

Plug in Jeter’s projected numbers, and you get 31 runs created for the stretch run. That’s a minor difference at first glance, but it’s a much bigger difference once you factor in the smaller number of at-bats and games played. If he lives up to his projections, Jeter is going to create many more runs in a much smaller sample size of playing time.

That underscores the point that, health permitting, Jeter is going to be an offensive boon for the Yankees in the second half. The Yankees are at 3.92 runs per game now. With Jeter in the lineup on a regular basis, you have to think that they’ll be able to get over four runs per game easily.

The catch?

Jeter should be a significant defensive downgrade for the Yankees. Their shortstops rank about in the middle of the pack in Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, according to FanGraphs. Jeter was the worst shortstop in the league in both those categories last year, and that was before doctors went in with instruments and put his left ankle back together.

Point being that some of the runs Jeter is going to give the Yankees on offense are going to be erased by his defense. The Yankees are going to need either better pitching or more offense to account for those.

More offense is hardly out of the question. Just as Jeter will be an offensive upgrade at short if he stays healthy, Alex Rodriguez will be an offensive upgrade at third base if he comes back stays healthy. Curtis Granderson will (theoretically) provide some power upon his return.

Factor in the production that Rodriguez and Granderson should bring to the lineup alongside Jeter, and it’s going to be an upset if the Yankees don’t manage four runs per game in the second half. If anything, they should be able to close the gap between them and the American League average of 4.42 runs per game.

The Yankees’ offense will still be pathetic in light of the Bronx Bombers offenses of old, to be sure. But since they’ve managed to stick in the race with a lousy offense, the Yankees have to like their chances of doing better than merely sticking in the race with an improved offense.

At the very least, they might be able to get people to start watching their games again

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

Follow zachrymer on Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Re-Grading Top July Trades of the 2012 MLB Season

Before a team pulls the trigger on a July trade, it’ll likely have revisited several trades from past years in order remind itself of why it would trade a productive veteran for an unproven minor leaguer or vice versa.

No general manager wants to be the one who makes what appears to be a relatively insignificant trade that turns out producing a terrific player for the other team. Last July, the Mariners were short on outfield depth and deep in power relievers so a deal to send right-hander Steve Delabar to the Blue Jays for Eric Thames appeared to make plenty of sense, right?

Thames, a left-handed hitting corner outfielder had a fairly productive rookie season in 2011 with a .262 batting average and 12 homers in just 95 games. But he had fallen out of favor in Toronto after struggling with a .652 OPS in 46 games in 2012.

Delabar, a 29-year-old journeyman who throws his fastball in the mid-90s, had a 4.17 ERA with excellent peripherals (36.2 IP, 23 H, 11 BB, 46 K). With several hard-throwing right-handers in the system, including Tom Wilhelmsen, Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, Delabar apparently became expendable.

Nearly one year later, it looks as though Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos completely destroyed Jack Zduriencik in this deal. Thames was designated for assignment and later traded to Baltimore for a fringe minor leaguer last month. Delabar is having another stellar season (1.58 ERA, 12.8 K/9) and is one of five finalists for the last roster spot AL All-Star team.

Here’s a look back at eight trades from last July that were much more notable, at least at the time. 

Begin Slideshow


What Sets an Elite MLB Fastball Apart from the Rest of the Pack?

“If you’re going to make it as a pitcher, kid, you’ve gotta have a fastball. Develop a good one, and you’ll go far.”

I’m certain I had a little league coach tell me that once. You probably did too when you were in little league. Guys like Justin Verlander, Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg probably heard the same thing.

The difference between us and them is that they, you know, actually did develop good fastballs. Elite ones, in fact.

But here’s a just-for-fun question: What does an elite fastball have that an ordinary fastball doesn’t?

This is a “just-for-fun” question because you probably already have a pretty good idea what goes into an elite fastball. The defining characteristics aren’t exactly some big secret, so nothing I’m about to ramble on about should blow your mind.

And that’s OK. There weren’t many big secrets to uncover when I broke down what makes an elite changeup, but it was a good excuse to have fun with numbers and pictures. Fastballs offer another excuse to have fun with numbers and pictures. 

So let’s have at it.

 

Velocity: A Lesson on Margin of Error with Justin Verlander

Let’s start this off with a bit of guided meditation. What I want you to do is conjure images of the best fastballs in baseball in your head.

Let me guess: You conjured images of particularly fast fastballs, didn’t you?

Of course you did. When it comes to fastballs, velocity is more or less synonymous with excellence. That’s just how it is, and there’s something to that notion.

According to FanGraphs, the PITCHf/x tracking system has the league-average four-seam fastball in 2013 at 91.8 miles per hour. The five starting pitchers who have saved the most runs above average with their four-seamers are all averaging at least 92 miles per hour. For relievers, the top eight fastball merchants in the league are also all averaging at least 92 miles per hour.

The writing on the wall clearly states: “Yeah, velocity is a good thing.”

Since you’re a baseball fan, dear reader, you already knew that. For that matter, you must already know why that is. More velocity generally means a larger margin for error, as a fastball that’s moving very fast is harder to hit than a fastball that’s moving minus the “very” fast.

A simple concept, to be sure, and one that can be easily illustrate with pretty pictures.

Consider Justin Verlander circa 2011. Per FanGraphs, he saved more runs above average with his four-seamer than any other right-handed starter in baseball that year. His fastball averaged 95.0 miles per hour, but we all remember him cranking it up much higher than that when he needed to.

And when Verlander did that, he could get away with pretty much anything. Such as the pitch he throws to Torii Hunter at the very end of this highlight reel:

In case you didn’t quite catch it the first time around, the following image shows where that pitch to Hunter was supposed to be and where it ended up:

The catcher set up low and away. Verlander threw that heater up and in, technically making it a mistake pitch. It didn’t matter, though, because it was 101 miles per hour. Plenty fast enough to render Hunter helpless.

Had that pitch been any slower, something bad might have happened to it. Willie Eyre can tell you all about it.

Who’s he? Just a guy who appeared here and there with the Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles between 2006 and 2011. His fastball was nothing special, and Hunter’s a guy who can vouch for that.

I can’t embed the video here, but go over to MLB.com and watch Hunter tee off on a fastball from Eyre that was clocked at 92 miles per hour. I would tell you to note the spot Eyre was supposed to hit and where he ended up throwing the pitch, but I went ahead and did that for you:

Eyre basically did the same thing that Verlander did. He was supposed to throw a fastball low and away, but he threw one high and tight. He didn’t get away with it because he didn’t throw a 101-MPH fastball. Eyre’s margin for error was smaller and, sure enough, an error occurred.

In and of itself, increasing a pitcher’s margin for error is really the only thing elite fastball velocity can do. That’s not a bad function as far as functions go, but the point is that it doesn’t erase a pitcher’s margin for error. A guy with great velocity is going to be able to get away with more mistakes than a guy with average velocity, but he can’t rely on his velocity alone to limit his mistakes.

He has to actually, you know, pitch. And like with any pitch, with fastballs that’s all about location, location, location.

 

Location: Lessons on Avoiding the Sweet Spot with Zack Wheeler and Shelby Miller

If velocity was the only thing that mattered, Zack Wheeler’s fastball would be one of the game’s most unhittable pitches. Per FanGraphs, PITCHf/x has the average velocity of Wheeler’s fastball at 95.1 miles per hour, which is right about where Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg are with their heaters.

But Wheeler’s fastball isn’t unhittable. It’s quite the opposite, in fact. According to Brooks Baseball, hitters have a .293 batting average and a .610 slugging percentage against Wheeler’s four-seamer.

There’s a good reason for that: Wheeler has a live arm, but he can’t locate his fastball worth a darn-and-a-half.

According to FanGraphs, Wheeler is only throwing 44.9 percent of his pitches within the strike zone. It doesn’t help that only 51.0 percent of his fastballs are finding the strike zone, which is a less-than-ideal rate.

The worst part is that the fastballs Wheeler has managed to put in the zone haven’t always been well placed. Just ask Juan Francisco:

Here’s a more precise look at that fastball’s location, complete with a rough-guess representation of the strike zone:

The pitch Wheeler threw was 96 miles per hour, but it was right down the middle and closer to Francisco’s belt than his knees. That’s otherwise known as the “middle of the plate,” an area where no pitcher should ever throw a fastball regardless of the margin of error he has thanks to his velocity.

Alas, it’s something of a habit for Wheeler. Here’s the fastball he threw to Jayson Werth that was launched for a home run:

And here’s the fastball Wheeler threw to Adam LaRoche that was also knocked out of the yard:

Like the pitch to Francisco, the fastballs Wheeler threw to Werth and LaRoche came across the plate in the mid-90s. But also like the pitch to Francisco, they were located in the middle of the plate.

There’s hope for Wheeler. He has velocity, and that’s good because velocity is a thing that’s extremely hard to teach. But until Wheeler learns how to do locate, he’ll be a perfect example of “how not to be” for other young pitchers.

On the flip side, there is Shelby Miller. 

Miller, 22, is close in age to the 23-year-old Wheeler, and he also throws his fastball hard with a 93.6-MPH average. What makes Miller different is his beyond-his-years ability to locate his fastball.

According to FanGraphs, 56.6 percent of Miller’s fastballs have found the strike zone this season, which is a big reason why he ranks in the top seven among starters in overall Zone%. And when Miller is locating, he’s really locating.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, Miller’s one-hit shutout of the Colorado Rockies back on May 10 is the single most dominant performance achieved this year in the eyes of of Bill James’ game score statistic. Miller did it with fastballs, as a staggering 93 of his 113 pitches were heaters, according to TexasLeaguers.com.

What’s more, Miller picked up all 13 of his strikeouts on heaters. You can watch them all here:

Let’s take a closer look at those 13 fastballs. Here’s an overlay that shows the location of the seven strikeouts Miller racked up against left-handed batters, complete with another rough-guess strike zone:

Note: Yes, the camera angles did change slightly throughout the course of the game. I had to improvise by lining up home plate as approximately as possible.

You don’t see anything in the middle of the plate here. The strikeouts Miller got against lefties were either on fastballs on the inner part of the plate and low or on pitches up above the belt. 

And now here’s a look at the fastballs Miller got right-handed batters to strike out on:

A couple of these fastballs flirted with the middle of the zone but were more away than down the middle. Thus, Miller avoided giving the righties he faced fastballs to drive.

Want to know why Miller is so good at 22 while Wheeler looks like he still needs to some fine-tuning at 23? There you go. Miller can already locate his fastball with the best of ’em, and former pitching great Curt Schilling will testify that a pitcher is throwing more than just one pitch when he does that:

A pitcher who’s able to mix big-time velocity with outstanding command has the two main ingredients of an outstanding fastball. With these two things alone, a heater can do wonders.

A pitcher who can also make his fastball dance, however, is going to be even better off.

 

Late Movement: Super-Cool Visuals with Matt Harvey, Max Scherzer and Others

A well-located fastball that has some velocity is a pitch that’s very hard to hit, but you know what’s even harder to hit?

That would be a well-located fastball that has some velocity and some very wicked late movement.

Now, every fastball “moves” to a certain degree. That’s the impression one gets from looking at the PITCHf/x leaderboard over at Baseball Prospectus, as there’s not a four-seamer in baseball that registers 0.00 in both the horizontal and vertical movement categories. There’s really no such thing as a “straight” fastball.

The trouble is that fastball movement is different from changeup or breaking-ball movement in that it’s not always easy to see. This is especially true of left-handers due in large part to the slinging nature of their deliveries and baseball’s preferred camera angles.

For example, Chris Sale’s fastball may have more horizontal movement than any other fastball in baseball, but I couldn’t find a video that showed it off. Clayton Kershaw has more vertical movement on his fastball than anyone else, but I’ll be damned if there’s a video out there in which you can see it.

It’s a good thing, then, that there are right-handers with elite fastball movement, too. Those who have it tend to have little trouble making it show on video.

If you recall that leaderboard we looked at way back when, you’ll remember that Matt Harvey has saved more runs with his fastball than any other pitcher this season. He certainly has velocity and the ability to locate, but one thing he doesn’t get enough credit for is the late movement on his fastball.

Here’s a GIF that shows the late movement of a fastball that Harvey struck Jordan Schafer out with back in June: 

That’s a 97-MPH fastball that was on track to hit Schafer square in the elbow, but it reversed course and caught the inside part of the strike zone.

That’s the kind of movement you generally see on two-seam fastballs, but Brooks Baseball classified that pitch as a four-seamer. That’s not surprising, as a typical Harvey four-seamer really does tend to move that much. He’s getting an average of 6.49 inches of horizontal movement on it in 2013.

But that’s nothing compared to Max Scherzer. He ranks third among starters in runs saved with his fastball but first among all right-handed starters in horizontal movement with an average of 8.07 inches on his four-seamer.

Let’s see it in action with a GIF of a fastball that Scherzer struck Jason Kipnis out with back in May:

That’s a fastball that looked like it was going to go right down the middle, and it would have if Scherzer threw a straighter fastball. But he doesn’t, so this fastball naturally decided to make a beeline for the outside corner and hit it with ease.

Late-moving four-seam fastballs are hardly a new invention. It’s a notable trait of quite a few mega-awesome fastballs that have popped up here and there throughout history, including the ones belonging to Pedro Martinez and Kerry Wood in the late 1990s.

Pulled from a video of a start he made in 1997, here’s a GIF of a vintage Pedro fastball:

And here’s a GIF of a vintage Wood fastball, straight from his 20-strikeout game in 1998:

Martinez and Wood had other weapons besides their fastballs, as Pedro had one of the best changeups ever and Wood had an absolute hammer of a curveball. Likewise, Harvey and Scherzer also have other weapons besides their fastballs, as Harvey throws three solid offspeed pitches and Scherzer owns a devastating slider.

But one thing these four guys have in common with pitchers like Justin Verlander, Shelby Miller and, well, virtually every other pitcher under the sun is that they all worked/work off of their fastballs. It’s the pitch that sets the tone, hence the reason every kid with big league dreams needs to have one.

For those who are determined to make good on those dreams, it’s simple: velocity, location, movement. Develop a fastball with all three of those, kid, and you’ll go far.

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

Follow zachrymer on Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Is Homer Bailey’s Second No-Hitter Proof He’s an Elite Pitcher in MLB?

Homer Bailey is basically Nolan Ryan.

OK, maybe that’s a bit of a stretch. But the Cincinnati Reds right-hander and the Ryan Express now have something pretty cool in common, and it also serves as clarification for a certain something else: the fact that Bailey is a lot better than you might think he is.

If you missed it, Bailey held the San Francisco Giants hitless on Tuesday night at Great American Ballpark. They call that a “no-hitter” in the industry, and they’re pretty rare.

Well, unless you’re Bailey. He now has two no-hitters to his name, and the first one he pitched last September 28 against the Pittsburgh Pirates also happens to be the last no-hitter Major League Baseball had seen before Bailey broke out another on Tuesday night.

That’s where the Ryan connection comes from. ESPN Stats & Info will tell you all about it: 

So there’s that, and here’s the final out of the proceedings in case you missed it:

There are some similarities between Bailey’s no-hitter against the Pirates and his no-hitter against the Giants. Both were high-strikeout games, as he fanned 10 in his no-no against the Pirates and nine in his no-no against the Giants. Both times, Bailey did it by relying heavily on his fastball. 

Per Brooks Baseball, 73 of Bailey’s 115 pitches (63.5 percent) against the Pirates were four-seam fastballs. They averaged 91.64 miles per hour.

Against the Giants, Bailey threw four-seamers for 68 of his 109 pitches (62.4 percent). What was different this time around is that his hard stuff had a little more giddy-up, as Brooks Baseball has the average velocity for it down at 95.32 miles per hour.

Bailey was definitely busting out the big velocity in the later innings against the Giants. He was sitting at 95 easily, and I recall seeing a couple 97s as well. You could tell that he was thinking something along the lines of, “I’m going to get this done because I am freaking awesome.”

And you know what? Bailey is just that.

I wonder if there might still be a sentiment in some circles that Bailey is just another former top prospect who hasn’t turned into anything special. That’s indeed the way things were looking for a while, as he racked up a mere 4.47 ERA between 2009 and 2011 and had a 4.24 ERA at the end of August last year in his first full MLB season.

But ever since then…

In Bailey’s last seven regular season starts of 2012, he went 3-1 and compiled a 1.85 ERA over 48.2 innings. Mixed in was the no-hitter against the Pirates, but he also had three other starts in which he logged at least seven innings and allowed no more than one earned run.

Bailey kept it up against the Giants in the postseason, allowing only one earned run on one hit in seven innings in his lone start in the NLDS.

Bailey has now made 17 starts in 2013, in which he has a 3.57 ERA. But if we take the 17 starts he’s made this season and add them to the eight starts he made after the calendar turned to September last year…

GS IP ERA K/9 BB/9 K/BB H/9 HR/9
 25  166.2  2.98  9.15  1.95  4.69  6.50  0.60

If we were to entertain the notion that these were Bailey’s full-season numbers for 2013, then his National League ranks would be:

  • Tied for 14th in ERA
  • 5th in K/9
  • 13th in BB/9
  • 8th in K/BB
  • 7th in H/9
  • 12th in HR/9

In other words, he’d be up there among the best the Senior Circuit has to offer. 

The truth is that it was already possible to make that argument even before Bailey no-hit the Giants. He may have started the day with a relatively unspectacular 3.88 ERA, but the ERA estimators all disagreed with that number.

Per FanGraphs, Bailey’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) stood at 2.77. That ranked fifth among Senior Circuit hurlers. His xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) stood at 2.99, which ranked third in the National League. He had a 3.13 SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) that ranked fourth.

As far as these handy-dandy statistics were concerned, Bailey deserved a lot better than his 3.88 ERA. Typically, what that means is that the pitcher in question has been pitching like an ace and just getting unlucky. The general indication is that it may just be a matter of time before said ace-like pitcher starts seeing results.

Sound like anybody you know who did something kinda amazing on Tuesday night?

There’s still a lot of season left in 2013. A good rough guess is that Bailey has 17 starts left in him before now and the end, and he’s probably going to be making some more in October given the strength of the ballclub around him.

You’re not going to want to miss many of these starts. Bailey might not have any more no-hitters in him, but there’s no denying what he’s become since something clicked for him last September.

The guy’s an ace.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Should A-Rod, Ryan Braun, Others Be Scared of MLB’s New Star Witness?

Introducing Porter Fischer, the latest key witness for Major League Baseball in the league’s ongoing investigation into the Biogenesis performance-enhancing drugs scandal.

MLB‘s goal in this endeavor, as you know by now, is to gather enough evidence and testimony against players like Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Braun and almost two dozen others, in an attempt to suspend them for violating the sport’s drug policy.

 

Fischer is a former employee of Tony Bosch, who is the founder of the now-defunct Miami-area clinic that reportedly has supplied and distributed performance-enhancing substances to major leaguers.

Fischer was the man responsible for the notes and records that could potentially implicate players, according to the Miami New Times, the publication that broke open this entire scandal in the first place.

Monday brought news, first reported by TMZ, that Fischer has agreed to meet with the league to disclose what he knows as well as hand over any material evidence.

This report was then corroborated by the New York Daily News, which spoke with Fischer’s attorney, Raymond Rafool, who said:

“Of course my client is going to talk with MLB. My client wants to do the right thing.”

The Daily News report quoted Rafool as saying the meeting with the league will occur in Florida “extremely soon.”

So what does this all mean?

Getting Fischer to agree to testify has to be seen as yet another win for MLB in its dogged investigation against players it believes violated the drug policy.

This is similar to the events of early June, when the league persuaded Bosch to meet and share what he knows and what information he has.

Bosch, though, only agreed to talk to MLB after first trying—and failing—to get financial help from Rodriguez, according to a previous Daily News report.

Also per that report:

…baseball officials have agreed to a series of demands from Bosch that include dropping the lawsuit MLB filed against him earlier this year and paying his legal bills, indemnifying him for any civil liability that arises from his cooperation and providing him with personal security.

Whether Fischer is getting any such deal, though, is unclear at this point.

TMZ‘s initial report claimed that Fischer will, in fact, receive a “consulting fee” from MLB for cooperating. In the Daily News report, however, Rafool denied as much, saying “My client has not agreed to any consulting fee—I don’t know where (TMZ) is getting that information. That has not been discussed yet.”

Would it really be all that surprising, though, if Fischer is granted some form of immunity or financial restitution by MLB in exchange for his knowledge?

After all, MLB is doing everything in its power to stack the deck with as many cards as possible when it comes to going after A-Rod, Braun and others.

Presumably, the league will want Fischer to corroborate some of the information Bosch has already offered up. And if Fischer has anything new to add to the equation, well, that would be a bonus for MLB.

It’s an odd coincidence—or maybe not—that all this came out the same day that Rodriguez was finally granted permission by the New York Yankees to begin his minor league rehab assignment, which started Tuesday night.

While A-Rod makes his way back to the field, there’s still no telling just how long the investigation will take.

For that matter, there’s no telling whether Bosch and now Fischer really have the goods for the league to take action.

But if they do, Major League Baseball may be getting even closer to finding a way to keep Rodriguez, Braun and others off the field.

Maybe even for good.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Should Umpires Be Required to Pass Mandatory Rules Tests During the MLB Season?

Major League Baseball already has in-season tests for players, ones implemented to ensure that they’re not getting ahead of the curve by doing things they shouldn’t be doing.

But what about the other guys on the field? Should umpires be subjected to different sorts of tests? Perhaps tests implemented to ensure that they’re not drifting behind the curve?

Here’s the idea: Tests on the rules. Mandatory ones. Administered here and there during the MLB season.

Heck, why not?

I got in touch with an MLB spokesman on Monday and asked him if the idea to implement occasional tests on the rules for umpires has ever been kicked around. To the spokesman’s knowledge, the answer was no.

This, however, was after he made it clear to me that the communication between baseball and the umpires about the rules is pretty much constant. There are reviews. There are meetings. There is general correspondence. All for the sake of making sure that everyone is on the same page at all times.

In other words, it’s not like there’s a status quo of indifference in the relationship between baseball and the umpires when it comes to the rules. And to be fair, this status quo is hardly useless.

Due to that blasted “human element” thing, umpires make mistakes all the time. But when these mistakes happen, they’re typically judgment calls that have nothing to do with not knowing the rules.

The call that Jim Joyce made in 2010 that robbed Armando Galarraga of a perfect game? It was a horrible call, but it was a judgment call. It would have been a rules issue if Joyce had called the runner safe because Galarraga forgot to tag him or something.

The home run call that Angel Hernandez blew earlier this year despite the fact he got to review it? Baffling and frustrating to no end, but it was a judgment call. It would have been a rules issue if his ruling had been that anything that bounces back into the field of play isn’t a home run by rule.

That infield fly rule call that Sam Holbrook made in last year’s National League Wild Card Game? It was a poorly-timed and back-breaking judgment call from the Atlanta Braves’ perspective, but it was technically the right call. WEEI.com’s Mike Petraglia heard from an MLB source that the infield fly rule was appropriately called.

We could go on, but you know how it is. If we were to put together a list of all the mistakes ever made by umpires, it would be 99 percent bad judgment calls and maybe one percent umpires not knowing the rules. Instances of the blue guys forgetting the rules aren’t an epidemic.

It’s just that when these instances happen, the embarrassment is palpable.

Remember Jean Segura‘s wild ride on the basepaths back in April?

Why was Segura allowed to go safely to first base on that play? According to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, the umpires cited Rule 7.08(i):

If a runner touches an unoccupied base and then thinks the ball was caught or is decoyed into returning to the base he last touched, he may be put out running back to that base, but if he reaches the previously occupied base safely he cannot be put out while in contact with that base.

“Any point between second and first that they would have tagged him, he’s out,” said crew chief Tom Hallion. “What he did was take the liability to be put out by leaving second base. But once he got to first base, now that’s his.”

It sounded like a legit enough explanation. At the very least, Hallion was making it clear that the umpires weren’t just making it up as they went along. They were abiding by the rulebook.

Just the wrong part of it, as it turned out. ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported a few days after the silliness that MLB had determined the wrong rule had been cited, and that Segura should have been called out.

Oops.

To make sure all umpires were aware of the foul-up, MLB sent out a “clarification memo” to all umpires—exactly the sort of thing that falls in line with the protocol that exists between the league and the umpires regarding the rules.

But there was another incident a few weeks later. You know, the one that involved Mike Scioscia, Bo Porter and one confused umpiring crew:

This is how we came to know all about Rule 3.05(b).

Crew chief Fieldin Culbreth and his crew had allowed Porter to make a pitching change even though the guy he had just put in hadn’t yet faced a single batter. That’s a no-no, as Rule 3.05(b) states:

If the pitcher is replaced, the substitute pitcher shall pitch to the batter then at bat, or any substitute batter, until such batter is put out or reaches first base, or until the offensive team is put out, unless the substitute pitcher sustains injury or illness which, in the umpire-in-chief’s judgment, incapacitates him for further play as a pitcher.

Culbreth ended up getting suspended for two games. It was widely agreed that was the right thing to do, and Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com said it best when he wrote that bad judgment calls may be “inexplicable,” but umpires forgetting the rules is “inexcusable.”

Agreed, but all it takes to conjure up a shred of sympathy when these things happen is one look at baseball’s rule book. It’s about as dense and as hard to decipher as Finnegans WakeMemorizing it all once must be hard enough. It follows that keeping all of it memorized for a prolonged period of time would be even harder.

And that’s where the odd test here and there throughout the season could come in handy.

The idea of the tests wouldn’t necessarily be to weed out the numbskulls among the umpire population. The fact that they so rarely forget the rules is a pretty clear indication that, when it comes to knowing the rules, there really aren’t any.

If umpires were to be given tests that presented them with a series of scenarios with accompanying “true or false” sections as to the proper ruling—i.e. the soul-crushing rules quiz that Jayson Stark put together recently—I doubt there would be any actual failures. In fact, I have to imagine that the vast majority of umpires would do quite well. Like, 99 out of 100 well.

But that one…

Getting that one wrong and then being corrected on it could set an umpire straight as to a certain section of the rulebook he had either forgotten completely or was fuzzy on.

Maybe it would mean nothing in the long run. But then again, maybe the umpire would remember that one wrong answer when presented with a relevant scenario in a game. In that event, a call that might have been wrong would be right, and there would be no fuss. Huzzahs all around.

Now zoom out and think about it from a wider perspective. If you get enough umpires getting enough answers wrong and subsequently being set straight on the relevant rules, you’re effectively working to eliminate the potential for embarrassing instances of umpires not knowing the rules.

These tests alone wouldn’t make umpires perfect. Short of easing human umpires out of the game and steadily replacing them with T-800s, there’s nothing MLB can do to stop the human element from rearing its ugly head.

We are, however, progressing towards a long-overdue point in the game’s history when the human element is going to be corrected more easily and more often than ever before. Expanded replay is going to do the trick.

Now imagine a world that has both instant replay curbing the human element and a series of tests keeping umpires up to speed on the rules at all times. In that world, the umpires might as well be robots.

How about it, Major League Baseball?

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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