Kuzul

We’ve officially reached the post-trade deadline hangover stage. It wasn’t as exciting as we had hoped, but fortunately, trades can still be made.

Things are quiet at the moment, however. Teams will take a breath, regroup and start putting a plan in place for the August waiver period.

The plan usually starts with a team placing players on revocable waivers with the purpose of either possibly trading them later in the month if they pass through waivers unclaimed, pulling them back off of waivers if claimed or working out a deal with the team awarded the claim. 

August Trade Candidates

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweeted that Marlins third baseman Placido Polanco, Blue Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera and Brewers reliever Mike Gonzalez (pictured) were among those already put on waivers. You can bet that Polanco, who is just not very productive anymore, and Cabrera, whose value had taken a steep decline even before a recent knee injury landed him on the disabled list, will go unclaimed.

Gonzalez, on the other hand, has value as a left-hander with late-inning experience, a solid strikeout rate (47 K in 39.1 IP) and a reasonable salary (due less than $1 million for remainder of season). The Indians, Reds and Cardinals could all have interest. 

As for some bigger names, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca speculates on 10 who could switch teams this month.

Because of their massive contracts, Phillies pitchers Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon could clear waivers and be shopped. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. didn’t appear motivated to move them last month with his team nowhere near playoff contention, however, so it’s unclear if he has any reason to move them in August. 

The Red Sox are one of the few teams who have the prospects and the payroll space to acquire either player. But since they already acquired Jake Peavy, Lee makes little sense. And with Koji Uehara (15.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, BB, 21 K, 5 Sv in July) thriving in the closer’s role, adding a closer is probably not a priority. 

Royals Still Looking to Add

Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore, despite making just one minor acquisition (outfielder Justin Maxwell) at the trade deadline, says he’ll continue to for ways to improve his ballclub, according to Dick Kaegel of MLB.com.

Their biggest need might be at second base, which is why they’d been mentioned in rumors with just about every second baseman who might be available.

While it’s difficult to see Chase Utley, Howie Kendrick or Gordon Beckham getting through waivers, it’s a good possibility that Rickie Weeks (pictured) of the Brewers goes unclaimed.

There is risk because of his $11 million salary in 2014 and his extended slumps over the past two seasons, but the Royals could catch lightning in a bottle with Weeks, who hit .355 with five homers in June and also finished strong in 2012 after a terrible start. 

NL East Teams Searching for Bench Help

While they couldn’t find a match before the deadline, the Braves will continue to try and add a left-handed bat for the bench and a backup infielder, according to Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Emilio Bonifacio of the Blue Jays, Omar Quintanilla of the Mets and Mariners shortstop Brendan Ryan are among those who could fill the backup infielder role.

One player who could fill both voids would be Luis Valbuena (pictured), if the Cubs were to make him available. Mark Kotsay of the Padres and Greg Dobbs of the Marlins could fit the need for a left-handed bat off the bench. 

Another NL East team, the Washington Nationals, are also looking around for bench help, according to Bill Ladson on MLB.com. Although they’re 11.5 out in the division, they’re still within striking distance of a wild-card spot (6.5 games back). President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo thinks they have the talent on their 25-man roster to be a very good team down the stretch.

Rookie second baseman Anthony Rendon is struggling with only seven hits in his last 57 at-bats. The Nats could send him back to the minors and give Stephen Lombardozzi more playing time, which is where a backup infielder would be a fit. Scott Hairston is also just 2-for-18 since being acquired from the Cubs a few weeks back. 

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Shhhh. Do you hear that? 

Silence. That’s the sound of clubs around Major League Baseball gathering their wits in the wake of the non-waiver trade deadline. 

And it will not be lasting long. 

For all the fuss that’s made about the July 31 trade deadline, it’s of course not actually a deadline for clubs to make deals. Moves can still be made in August thanks to the waiver process—Bleacher Report’s Jason Martinez has a primer if you need one—and the end of the month is a more realistic “trade deadline” than July 31 for postseason contenders.

Players acquired before Aug. 31 are eligible to play in October, after all. So for contenders out there that have holes to fill with outside help, now’s the time.

And thanks to the implementation of an extra wild-card berth in each league, there are obviously more teams with October in their sights these days than there were in the old days. When the league-wide silence is eventually broken, it could very well be broken by a clap of thunder rather than a drop of a pin.

There was some thunder-clapping going on last August, and for good reason. Thanks in large part to the second wild card, the pennant races in both leagues were quite crowded.

Per ESPN, there were six teams within six games of the second wild-card spot in the American League at the start of August in 2012, and four of those were within 3.5 games. In the National League, there were three teams within 5.5 games of the second wild-card spot.

Add it all up, and there were 10 teams in line to make the postseason, and nine teams still very much in the postseason picture. That’s almost two-thirds of the league, and that’s crazy-pants.

And so began the August activity. The A’s acquired Pat Neshek for their bullpen and a new starting shortstop in Stephen Drew. The Giants helped out their own bullpen with Jose Mijares. The Orioles shored up their starting rotation with Joe Saunders. The Nationals, feeling the heat from the Braves in the NL East, bolstered their postseason outlook by acquiring a new catcher in Kurt Suzuki.

And then there were the Dodgers, who effectively said “Screw it!” and went all-out last August.

They started by acquiring Joe Blanton from Philadelphia early in the month, and then pulled off one of the biggest trades in baseball history when they acquired Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto and an injured Carl Crawford from the Red Sox later in the month.

All for the sake of salvaging a playoff dream that was both fading and yet still very much alive due to the second wild card. Had there been no second wild card last year, the Dodgers might not have bothered.

Now, here’s a spoiler: There’s probably not going to be another deal like that one made this August.

The “Nick Punto trade,” as it should be known for the sake of tongue-in-cheekness, was a total right-time, right-place situation. There just so happened to be a team on the decline with payroll to unload and a team on the rise with the cash and the desire to absorb lots and lots of payroll.

There are teams on the decline with payroll to unload out there now—he said while looking in the Phillies’ general direction—but the Dodgers are set with both talent and payroll, and there’s not another team out there in the same position they were this time last year. There likely never will be, as the 2012 Dodgers were in the middle of a truly unique transition.

Beyond that, there’s also the fact that the wild-card races aren’t as crowded in 2013. Whereas there were nine realistic contenders at the start of August last year, there are only six realistic contenders this year: the Orioles, Rangers, Yankees and Royals in the American League and the Diamondbacks and Nationals in the National League. 

But while the potential for another August mega-blockbuster may not be there and the wild-card races may not be as crowded, one thing this year’s August waiver period has in abundance is impact players. Consider it a byproduct of a very quiet trade deadline.

Last year saw Anibal Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez, Omar Infante, Ichiro Suzuki, Wandy Rodriguez, Zack Greinke, Francisco Liriano and Marco Scutaro get moved before the deadline was imminent. Then when the deadline was imminent, Paul Maholm, Brandon League, Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, Jonathan Broxton and Ryan Dempster all got moved to contenders. It was indeed quite the busy deadline period.

But this year? Well, let’s see…

Scott Feldman, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Hairston, Matt Thornton, Matt Garza, Francisco Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano all got moved early on. But with the deadline imminent, only a handful of deals impacted contenders: the three-team Jake Peavy trade between the Red Sox, Tigers and White Sox, the Alberto Callaspo deal between the Angels and A’s, the Ian Kennedy deal between the Padres and D-Backs, and the Bud Norris deal between the Astros and Orioles.

And that was that. As B/R’s Jason Catania put it, the emphasis for this year’s trade deadline was on “dead.”

But that’s where the good news kicks in. Many of the players who weren’t moved in July are still candidates to be moved in August. And to that end, the list of players who could be changing addresses soon is impressive.

With assists from Jason Martinez, Sports Illustrated‘s Jay Jaffe and ESPN’s Buster Olney, here are some players who could be had this August: Cliff Lee, Carlos Ruiz, Michael Young, Jonathan Papelbon, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, Mike Morse, Kendrys Morales, Alexei Ramirez, Alex Rios, Joe Saunders, Phil Hughes and Jason Vargas.

Some pretty good names right there. And remember that a trade doesn’t necessarily have to happen in order for these guys to pack their bags.

They could just be handed over, like what happened with Rios in 2009 when the White Sox took him and his contract off Toronto’s hands. The Dodgers may have had the same idea in mind when they placed a claim on Lee last August.

Heck, there’s already been one claim. The word from Jeff Wilson of The Dallas Morning News is that the Rangers have added infielder Adam Rosales from the A’s via a waiver claim. Not exactly an impact player, but versatile veterans with occasional pop tend to come in handy during the stretch run.

The Rangers may not be done. They could use some help at DH with Lance Berkman hurting and Manny Ramirez‘s chances to make the big club apparently dwindling. They’re also going to need some outfield help if slugging right fielder Nelson Cruz is suspended by MLB for his alleged ties to Biogenesis. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports suspensions could be coming on Monday.

The Rangers aren’t the only American League wild-card contender with problem areas. The Indians may feel the need for another starting pitcher to help them hold on to the second wild-card spot or track down the Tigers in the AL Central. The Orioles are weak at second base. The Yankees are weak at third base. The offensively inconsistent Royals could use a good, solid bat.

Meanwhile in the National League, the Reds may feel safer acquiring a bat rather than relying on Ryan Ludwick to provide offense in his return from a lengthy stint on the disabled list. The Diamondbacks could still use bullpen help even after the acquisition of Joe Thatcher. The Nationals could be in the market for a starting pitcher with Ross Detwiler out for a while.

Don’t rule out division leaders making moves either. The A’s are never one to be quiet on the transactions front. The Pirates are a good bet to be aggressive with their first postseason berth in two decades looking them in the face. The Tigers may be forced into a move or two by the looming Indians.

There’s a surplus of impact players due to a quiet non-waiver trade deadline and a considerable collection of clubs that have improvements to make with October in sight. It’s not a mixture we get every year, and it’s certainly a mixture that teases loads of action-y action to come.

So keep your ear to the ground. After a quiet July, baseball should be in for a loud August.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

“Trade ya.”

While those exact words might not be used during the final hours of Major League Baseball’s trade deadline, it’s fun to imagine front office executives exchanging phone calls, e-mails and text messages that begin just so, as if they were eight-year-olds in an elementary school cafeteria.

“Trade ya my Fritos for your Ring Dings?”

The wheelings and dealings and movers and shakers surrounding the trade deadline are a huge part of what makes baseball so exciting at a time when we’re caught somewhere between trying to recall the freshness of Opening Day in April and the buildup toward the playoffs that happens every September. 

Unlike pretty much every other major American professional sport, baseball’s transaction cycle never really has a lull, particularly when it comes to the trade deadline.

Free agency officially starts almost as soon as the final out of the World Series is made, and Lord knows there are rumors and speculation about the biggest names about to become available months in advance. November through February is such a crazy four-month stretch that it even has its own nickname—the “Hot Stove.”

From there, we get into spring training, which is all about figuring out how those free agents we just mentioned fit into their new teams. It’s also a time to determine which intriguing young prospect is looking like a candidate to head north with the big league team and argue over which player should win that key position battle.

And once the season starts, well, it’s time for analyzing notable/surprising/disappointing performances and then waiting a month or two for the cavalry of top prospects to arrive before we get into the draft in June.

But each of those aspects isn’t quite unique to baseball. Football has OTAs and training camp, basketball has the summer league and hockey has, well, whatever hockey has. 

Where MLB stands alone, though, is what comes next—the trade deadline.

Basically, once the draft is finished and the fallout has been dissected and broken down for a week or so, baseball goes full-bore into trade rumors, talk, speculation and rumblings. The deadline may be July 31, but the anticipation builds for a solid six to eight weeks, and trades can—and do—happen at any time. 

Here’s a question for you: When is the trade deadline for the NFL? How ’bout for the NBA? Or the NHL?

Exactly.

[The respective answers, by the way: after Week 8; the 16th Thursday of the season, usually in February and, uh, we’ll get back to that.]

To be fair, the NBA and NHL do see a fair amount of activity leading up to their deadlines.

Just last season in the NBA, a bunch of swaps were completed in the month leading up to February 21, but the biggest move was probably the three-teamer involving Rudy Gay, Jose Calderon and Tayshaun Prince.

There were even more transactions in the NHL leading up to April 3, but as TSN put it: “Despite the flurry of activity near the deadline, the biggest story of the day might be the players who were not moved.”

As for the NFL? Well, with apologies to Aqib Talib, the “big get” by November 1 last year, this headline just about says all you need to know.

In baseball, though, it seems that a superstar, or at least a legitimate difference-maker or three, is not only dangled but—gasp—traded just about every year.

You can probably think up a handful of names on your own, but in case you’re feeling lazy, we’ve done the work for you. Big names like CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez, Cliff Lee, Hanley Ramirez, Jake Peavy and Roy Oswalt went from one team to another—in just the past five seasons.

And that’s to say nothing of the countless other quality players and seemingly spare parts who proved to be all-important additions—Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro, anyone?—that get to pack their bags each July.

Of course, not every trade deadline winds up being exciting. In fact, some, like Grant Brisbee of SB Nation, are even wondering whether this July might be the worst in recent memory:

This trade deadline is awful.

Michael Young used to be a good baseball player. You don’t need me to tell you that. He’s a seven-time All-Star, which is something that a few Hall of Famers can’t say. And he’s one of the more popular names in the Rumor Mill. Yankees? Red Sox? Dodgers? Who could use Michael Young? Then Ken Rosenthal tweeted that Young would accept a trade only to the Rangers, people freaked out. Boo, Michael Young. Booooo.

Except Michael Young is basically Greg Dobbs — you might want him on a 25-man roster, but you definitely don’t want him starting. Replace every Michael Young rumor with Greg Dobbs’s name. Greg Dobbs might go to the Yankees. Are the Red Sox interested in Greg Dobbs? Greg Dobbs refuses to waive his no-trade clause. It’s the kind of thought exercise that makes you rub your temples and evaluate the choices you’ve made in your life.

It’s certainly possible that we’ve already seen the biggest deal of this month when the Texas Rangers obtained right-hander Matt Garza from the Chicago Cubs for a package of prospects.

After all, it’s not like Monday’s run on relievers—Scott Downs, Jose Veras and Jesse Crain all got shipped out—would qualify as a busy news day by typical MLB trade deadline standards.

Part of the issue, no doubt, is that the expanded postseason format in which a second wild card in each league makes it into October simply means that there are more teams believing they still have a shot at the playoffs.

Plenty of buyers, not so many sellers.

Whether this is going to be an issue going forward, we’ll have to see. But there could be ways to reinvigorate the deadline.

Of course, it’s also possible that a bunch of deals go down in the next several hours, and we see players like Pence, Alex Rios and Justin Morneau get moved. And just because it seems unlikely now doesn’t mean that Cliff Lee will still be in Philadelphia or Giancarlo Stanton will still be a Marlin as of 4:01 p.m. Wednesday.

Regardless, we know two things beyond the shadow of a doubt.

First, the moment Scott Feldman was traded to the Baltimore Orioles, MLB’s trading period beat the NFL’s for the umpteenth consecutive year.

And second, no one would ever trade Ring Dings for Fritos. But nice try.

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“Put me in coach, I’m ready to play today. Look at me, I can be centerfield.”

So sang John Fogerty back in 1985 on his catchy-as-all-heck ditty “Centerfield.” Nearly 30 years after that song was released, complete with a video that featured footage of various famous centerfielders—from Willie Mays and Duke Snider to Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle—that position has once again become the glamour position of Major League Baseball.

Considering all the talent at the center of the diamond, it might be time to update the video.

In only the past two or three seasons, the sport has witnessed the breakouts of (deep breath) Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gomez, Adam Jones, Austin Jackson, Dexter Fowler, Desmond Jennings and Leonys Martin.

And that group doesn’t even take into account more established stars who have handled the center spot in recent years—like Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton and Curtis Granderson.

If you’re searching for a way to quantify just how talented and deep the current crop of centerfielders is, consider the statistical evidence.

Among the top 30 players per FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement ranking (WAR), nine are either current centerfielders or players who have done or could do the job: Trout, Gomez, McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez, Colby Rasmus, Jacoby Ellsbury, Starling Marte, Shin-Soo Choo and Jennings.

Think about that for a second.

There are eight positions aside from pitcher on the diamond, meaning no position should have more than four in the top 30 on average. Almost unfairly, then, centerfield takes up more than twice as many as that.

Perhaps the biggest reason behind centerfield becoming the center of attention is that baseball has shifted away from the slow-footed, power-hitting profile of the Steroid Era to younger, faster and more agile athletes who just so happen to be really, really good at baseball.

That’s the centerfield profile to a tee. Guys who can do stuff like this…

…or this…

…or this on a regular basis.

You want to argue that Trout and Bryce Harper, the top two young talents in the game, aren’t actually playing centerfield this year? Well, they did as rookies, and they could certainly get the job done if not for ceding to superb defenders in Peter Bourjos and Denard Span.

The story is similar for Starling Marte and Michael Brantley, a pair of centerfielders by trade who are playing left field for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Indians, respectively. In other words, there are so many great centerfielders that some of them have been pushed off their primary position and are excelling elsewhere.

Another key reason for the boon in center is that teams have recognized the importance of defense more over the past decade. As a result, glove work has become even more appreciated, valuable and sought after, especially in this era of diminished run scoring.

That’s why, for example, the New York Yankees moved Brett Gardner, an elite defender, from left field to center this year (a decision planned before incumbent Granderson went down with injury); or why the Indians signed Michael Bourn to handle center even though they already had Brantley; or why the Twins have stuck with Aaron Hicks despite the rookie’s struggles with the bat.

Even more ammo for the centerfield-as-the-premier-position argument is the fact that as incredible as the talent is right now, more is on the way.

To this point in 2013, each of Adam Eaton, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jake Marisnick and Christian Yelich—all of whom are consensus top-100 prospects—have broken into the big leagues. And two more are expected to arrive shortly: George Springer, a potential 30-30 candidate; and Billy Hamilton, the all-time single-season stolen base leader with 155 last year who converted from shortstop to centerfield.

As if that isn’t enough, the next wave of top-young centermen includes Albert Almora, a 2012 first-rounder; Gregory Polanco, a toolsy breakout prospect last year; and Byron Buxton, the No. 2-overall pick in 2012 who just so happens to be atop most prospect lists.

Pretty soon, those phenoms will join the current centerfield stars in the majors, and they won’t have to echo Fogerty’s lyrics by telling their coaches to put them in.

When they’re ready, they’ll be front. And center.

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Of the names we’re hearing that are very likely available on the trade market, there’s not much to get excited about. At least not in terms of a player who can make an impact down the stretch as Marco Scutaro did with the San Francisco Giants in 2012. 

But there are several second basemen on non-contending teams, or teams on the cusp of being a non-contender, who could be difference-makers if acquired. Whether their team pulls the trigger on a trade has a lot to do with the offer on the table.

Considering how thin the market is and with a handful of teams, including the Oakland A’s, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals, looking for middle infield upgrades, it wouldn’t surprise me to see at least one of the top five names on this list go in a pre-deadline deal. 

Here is a list of the top 10 potentially available middle infielders.

Begin Slideshow

Pitchers are fragile and should be handled with care, which is why you’ll see workloads decrease in the second half and very few pitching prospects called up to the big leagues for the stretch run. That doesn’t mean you should stop paying attention to what’s going on down in the minors.

Here are some pitchers, two from each level, that have either been really bad or really good as of late. 

Triple-A

Hot
LHP James Paxton, Seattle Mariners
Season stats: 4.40 ERA, 104.1 IP, 113 H, 39 BB, 104 K 

While he’s no Taijuan Walker (top prospect, top-of-the-rotation potential), Paxton is quietly having a solid season in Triple-A and could even get a look in the majors before season’s end. The 24-year-old lefty has allowed just six earned runs over his last four starts (27 innings), including a five-hit shutout on July 8th.

A projected 2014 rotation of Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker and either Erasmo Ramirez, Danny Hultzen, Brandon Maurer or Paxton filling the last two spots could help elevate the M’s back to the top of the division. 

Cold
LHP Andy Oliver, Pittsburgh Pirates
Season stats: 3.96 ERA, 100 IP, 77 H, 91 BB, 107 K 

Acquired from Detroit in the offseason, the Pirates were hoping that Oliver could decrease a walk rate the had gotten progressively worse since his first pro season in 2010. It continues to get worse (8.2 BB/9 in 2013; 6.7 BB/9 in 2012), however, and it’s starting to look less likely that his major league-caliber arm will ever translate into the 25-year-old becoming a productive major league pitcher.

Oliver may have reached a low point in his season when he was removed after just 1.2 innings of his last start on July 18th after allowing eight earned runs on five hits and five walks. The Tigers had moved him to the bullpen in 2012. The Pirates could do the same before completely giving up on him. 

Double-A

Hot
RHP Keyvius Sampson, San Diego Padres
Season stats: 3.35 ERA, 96.2 IP, 80 H, 42 BB, 101 K (AAA/AA)

Sampson may not have been ready for Triple-A, where he struggled early in the season (8.03 ERA, 12.1 IP, 17 H, 12 BB, 7 K in four starts), but he’s showing that he’s more than capable of dominating at the Double-A level. 

The Padres have been aggressive with the 22-year-old, jumping him a level from Low-A to Double-A in 2012, where he finished the season with a 5.00 ERA. Slowing down his ascent and allowing him to continue at the level in 2013 has been beneficial, as he’s completely overmatched hitters in six of his last seven starts (four starts with zero earned runs; three starts with 10-plus strikeouts; four starts with only one or two hits allowed).

Cold
RHP Jason Adam, Kansas City Royals
Season stats: 6.14 ERA, 104 IP, 117 H, 42 BB, 91 K

He’s not in the same class as Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer, the Royals’ top two pitching prospects, but Adam was a solid prospect who appeared to have a future in the back of a big league rotation or at least in the bullpen. His 2013 season is proving that even that projection may have been a stretch. 

The 21-year-old has an ERA over 6.00 after allowing eight earned runs in 4.1 innings during his last start. He also allowed six earned runs on six hits and seven walks in his first start of the month to end a string of three consecutive quality starts.

High-A

Hot
LHP Henry Owens, Boston Red Sox
Season stats: 2.78 ERA, 97 IP, 62 H, 50 BB, 116 K

The Sox are stacked with top pitching prospects in the upper minors, including Double-A starters Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo. But Henry Owens also gives the organization a potential elite prospect worth keeping an eye on down in the lower minors. 

With 11 no-hit innings over his last two starts, the 6’6″ lefty is doing what he can to earn a promotion to join his fellow top prospects in Double-A. His walk totals (50 BB in 97 IP) show that he still has a ways to go, but his stuff is probably too advanced for the current level and he might be ready for a new challenge before the end of the season. 

Cold
RHP Parker Markel, Tampa Bay Rays
Season stats: 6.37 ERA, 82 IP, 99 H, 35 BB, 71 K

A former 39th-round pick, Markel worked his way onto the prospect radar after a solid Low-A debut in 2012 (3.53 ERA, 120 IP, 117 H, 34 BB, 96 K). His first taste of High-A ball, however, has not been so kind to the 22-year-old. 

After one of his best starts of the season on June 29th (6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, BB, 10 K), the 6’4″ right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 10.1 innings. A move to the bullpen was a possibility for the future. That possibility could become a reality sooner than later.

Low-A

Hot
RHP C.J. Edwards, Texas Rangers (traded to Cubs on 7/22)
Season stats: 1.83 ERA, 93.1 IP, 62 H, 34 BB, 122 K

If the name sounds familiar, it’s because Edwards was just traded to the Cubs in the deal for Matt Garza. The names of the other players heading to Chicago—Mike Olt and Justin Grimm—are more notable because they’re top prospects who have already played in the majors. But it’s Edwards who could end up being the prize of the deal. 

The 21-year-old, who was drafted in the 48th round by Texas in 2011, has a 1.68 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 11.8 K/9 and only 94 hits allowed in 160.1 innings between three low minor league levels as a pro. Over his last eight starts in the Texas organization with Low-A Hickory, Edwards allowed just five earned runs in 41 innings with 15 walks and 63 strikeouts. He’ll begin his Cubs career with High-A Daytona. 

Cold
RHP Parker Bridwell, Baltimore Orioles
Season stats: 5.55 ERA, 95.2 IP, 95 H, 45 BB, 100 K

The No. 7-ranked prospect in the organization entering the 2011 season, according to Baseball Prospectus, Bridwell has fallen backward with his inability to succeed at the Low-A level. 

With over 230 innings of experience at the level and an ERA near 6.00 over that span, the 21-year-old could be running out of time to prove he can move up the ladder in the organization. He’s appeared close at times, but he cannot string together enough strong outings to think he’s turned a corner. 

After back-to-back brilliant starts in mid-June (14.2 IP, ER, 10 H, BB, 17 K), he allowed five earned runs in 5.2 innings in his next outing. His next start was good (5 IP, ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K). And then he gave up eight earned runs in 4.2 innings his next time out. Then he was good again (6 IP, 0 ER, H, 5 BB, 6 K). Then bad again (4.2 IP, 6 ER). 

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Hello, boys and girls. It’s fairy tale time.

Today, we’re going to be learning about the story of how a great hitter came to be.

Once upon a time…

There was a promising young slugger.

This slugger hit with a big stick from the left side, and he was once a top prospect in the minors who showed flashes of his ability and power at the major league level. Alas, he never could seem to stick in the big leagues.

And so the slugger’s team grew tired of the slugger not slugging, and he became a forgotten first baseman, overlooked and underappreciated by his team, which simply chose to move on from all that promise and all that power.

And the slugger was sad.

But then! The slugger got a new team, one that believed in him and wanted him and just knew he could do it if only given the chance.

Well, the slugger was so very grateful that he repaid his new team by hitting so many home runs that he became the true star he was always meant to be—only a handful of years later and in a different land.

And the name of that slugger, boys and girls, is Davis Ortiz.

You see, Davis Ortiz is actually not one, but two sluggers with very similar stories—Chris Davis and David Ortiz. That’s where the name comes from, combining the two last names.

But what’s the moral of the story?

That’s right! Always be patient with future MVP candidates!

Now that we’ve established how closely the Chris Davis’ career arc seems to be mimicking that of David Ortiz, let’s retrace the steps along the way to see how each slugger got to where they are.

In the Minors

All the way back in 1998, Ortiz, who was signed out of the Dominican Republic six years prior, checked in as Baseball America‘s 84th-best prospect in the game. Initially inked by the Seattle Mariners, Ortiz was traded—as a player to be named later—to the Minnesota Twins in 1996.

Davis, by comparison, was the publication’s No. 65 overall prospect prior to the 2008 season—exactly 10 years later—after being drafted in the fifth round in 2006 out of Navarro College in Texas by the Texas Rangers.

They both got to that level of prospect status by doing a lot of mashing. 

Ortiz hit .317 with 31 homers and 124 RBI across three levels in the minors during his breakout 1997 campaign at age 21.

Davis? He went for .297, 36 and 118 across two minor league levels during his breakthrough 2007.

Even though both players showed some serious flaws in their plate discipline—Ortiz sported a 23.9 percent strikeout rate in 1997, while Davis’ was 27.7 percent in 2007—the two also managed to make it to the major leagues for their first taste of The Show within four months of their 22nd birthday.

Early Years in the Majors

Somewhat surprisingly, given not only their still-developing abilities at the time but also the fact that they were eventually given up on by the teams they broke in with, the two sluggers had some immediate, albeit limited, success in the majors.

In his age-22 season of 1998, Ortiz batted .277/.371/.446 with nine homers and 46 RBI in 86 games as a rookie.

Meanwhile, in his age-22 campaign of 2008, Davis slashed .285/.331/.549 with 17 homers and 55 RBI in 80 games as a rook.

Ortiz would actually go on to be fairly productive for the Twins from 2000 through 2002 (.265/.344/.473), whereas Davis went backward with the Rangers, getting mere dribs and drabs in Texas despite raking in the high minors from 2009 through 2011.

And yet, Ortiz was released by Minnesota following the 2002 season. Davis, on the other hand, was traded for reliever Koji Uehara at the deadline in July 2011.

It wasn’t long, though, before the change of scenery worked for each player.

The Breakouts

Ortiz, who was deemed expendable—or so the Twins thought—in part because Minnesota’s top prospect by the name of Justin Morneau was nearly ready, caught on with the Boston Red Sox early in 2003.

The rest is pretty much history.

Then 27 years old, Ortiz put up the first of five consecutive seasons that earned him a top-five finish in the AL MVP race. He hit .288 with 31 homers and 101 RBI right out of the gate with Boston.

As for Davis, he was stuck behind enough corner infielders, from Mike Napoli to Michael Young to Adrian Beltre to Mitch Moreland, to fill a clown car. As Davis recently said while reminiscing about his time with Texas to Stephen Hawkins of the Associated Press:

That was probably the toughest time for me because I was coming off the bench as a utility guy. I knew I wasn’t going to get the chance to play every day and I felt like I was ready for it.

In his first full year after the Baltimore Orioles acquired him, though, Davis went bonkers just like Ortiz had with the Red Sox. As a 26-year-old last year, Davis smashed 33 homers to go with 85 RBI and a .270 average.

It’s also worth pointing out here that in both players’ first full seasons with their new teams, they went to the playoffs—a destination the Red Sox hadn’t reached in the three years prior to Ortiz’s arrival and O’s hadn’t reached in 14 years prior to Davis’.

Becoming an MVP Candidate

Ortiz has remained an MVP-caliber hitter throughout much of his time with Boston, and he’s going as strong as ever in 2013. So far this season, Ortiz is posting a .320/.403/.612 line with 19 homers and 65 RBI.

Obviously, Ortiz is much closer to the end of his career than the beginning. For Davis, the opposite is true, so the comparison can’t be fully embraced until we know more about how Davis’ future plays out in the years to come.

So far, his second year in Baltimore has been even better than the first, as Davis has an MLB-best 37 homers to go with his .311 average and 93 RBI.

Suffice it to say, if Davis’ career turns out anything like Ortiz’s has, well, that would be some kind of story of similarities.

Of course, for Davis to keep pace with Ortiz, he’s going to have to have a real fairy tale ending this season.

Ortiz, you’ll remember, won it all in his second season in Boston.

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In the American League East are two elite second basemen in line to get paid: Robinson Cano of the New York Yankees and Dustin Pedroia of the Boston Red Sox.

Now we have an idea as to who’s going to be paid first, which naturally means we have to ponder what it could mean for the other guy.

If you haven’t heard the latest yet, it sounds like Pedroia‘s the guy who’s going to be paid first. The word from Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports is that he and the Red Sox are discussing a contract extension that could exceed $100 million over five or six years. That would make him the highest-paid second baseman in history.

At least until, you know, Cano hits the open market this winter. He’s going to become the richest second baseman ever no matter what happens with Pedroia. About the only thing Pedroia can do with an extension is help Cano raise the bar to the level he wants it at.

Yes, the door is still technically open for Cano to sign an extension with the Yankees, but it was easy to believe Jon Heyman of CBS Sports when he reported in June that free agency is a “very likely outcome” for Cano. The man himself even let it slip to Chris Dell of the New York Daily News that he’s going to be a free agent “either way” at the end of the season.

Cano’s situation sheds light on Boston’s urgency to re-sign Pedroia.

Taking an $11 million option for 2015 into consideration, he’s under club control for two more years beyond 2013. But the Red Sox are playing it safe, as they could either wait for Cano to set the market for elite second basemen in free agency or go ahead and do it on their own terms with an extension for Pedroia.

They’ve got the right idea in doing so, and they also have the right kind of figure in mind.

A contract worth $100 million or more over five or six years would put Pedroia in the range of $20 million per year. That’s a bit more than the $15 million per year that the Texas Rangers gave Ian Kinsler last year, but that’s OK. Contract values do tend to inflate, and Pedroia has both age and numbers working for him in comparison to Kinsler.

Pedroia is now in his age-29 season, whereas Kinsler signed at the start of his age-30 season. Put side by side, their career numbers look like this:

For the uninitiated, ISO stands for isolated power and is essentially a slugging percentage that ignores singles. Here it confirms that Kinsler is the better power hitter, but not to such a degree that it makes him the better overall hitter.

So yeah, $20 million sounds reasonable for Pedroia, and it’s a figure that ought to agree with him, seeing as how he’s only making $10 million this year and next. And in light of his upcoming free agency, a $20 million-per-year deal for Pedroia ought to agree with Cano as well.

It’s already a given that Cano is going to get at least $20 million per year when his next deal comes. He certainly won’t settle for anything less. But since he’ll obviously be looking to get as much money as possible, it won’t hurt if he has Pedroia‘s contract to point to while saying, “You want me? Beat that!”

And if it comes to that, Cano will have a couple of legs to stand on. Namely, numbers and health.

One significant edge I believe Pedroia has on Cano is his defense.

Cano is easily among the game’s best defensive second basemen, but FanGraphs will vouch that there’s a huge gap between him and Pedroia in fielding runs above average since 2007, Pedroia‘s rookie season. Pedroia also holds a significant edge in defensive runs saved.

But offensive numbers are the ones that pay the bills and attract the big bucks, and that’s where Cano has Pedroia beat handily.

Pedroia has the edge in on-base percentage, but Cano’s huge edge in power is worth something in this case. What’s more, Cano can brag that his power is only getting better while Pedroia‘s is getting worse. Cano has an ISO of .233 since the start of the 2011 season, compared to .153 for Pedroia.

Cano and his people (i.e. that one rapper guy and others) may already be treating $25 million per year as a realistic goal. Said goal would likely only become more realistic if Pedroia inks a $20 million-per-year contract, as Cano would be able to sell his power as being worth an extra $5 million per year.

But we’re not done here. Another notion that Cano can sell prospective bidders on is the prospect that he’s going to age better than Pedroia.

He may already be a year older than Pedroia, but Cano’s injury history is a lot cleaner. He hasn’t been on the disabled list since 2006. Per Baseball Prospectus, Pedroia has lost almost 100 games to the DL since 2010, and the Boston Herald reported in May that he’s playing this season with a torn ligament in his thumb. 

And let’s face it, you only need to watch the two guys play to conclude that Cano is the safer long-term investment. Pedroia plays recklessly, going all-out all the time. For lack of a better word, Cano plays smoothly. If Pedroia is the Jeep of second basemen, Cano’s the Cadillac.

This is going to be particularly relevant if Pedroia inks a six-year contract that would take effect after the two years he’s already under club control. In that scenario, the Red Sox would be tied to him through his age-37 season in 2021. 

A free-agent contract that would take Cano through his own age-37 season would only be a seven-year deal. I say “only,” of course, because Joel Sherman of the New York Post mentioned last October that Cano would be looking for a 10-year deal. He’s kidding himself if he actually thinks he can get something like that, but him being able to set the floor for his next contract at seven years would be good enough.

Seven years at $25 million per year would, after all, be a $175 million contract. For some perspective, that’s $100 million more than the current record for a second baseman (held by Kinsler).

Cano would do even better than that if he were to get the right teams involved in a bidding war. One of those between the Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers would be perfect, as it would involve a team with a need and lots of money (Dodgers) going up against a team with lots of money and an even bigger need (Yankees). In such a bidding war, more years and more money could come Cano’s way.

So…what happens if the Red Sox only ink Pedroia to a five- or six-year deal that would take effect immediately and only lock him up through 2018 or 2019?

Best guess: Nothing that would hurt Cano.

Even if it comes to that, the Red Sox and Pedroia will still have set an annual average value for Cano to beat. And while the precedent wouldn’t be set for Cano to get a long-term deal, such a precedent isn’t necessarily required given Cano’s optimistic aging outlook and, indeed, the fact that he should be negotiating with several teams rather than just one. The team that wants him the most will be willing to do an extra year or two.

It all goes back to what I said earlier about Cano not really needing Pedroia to set the bar in order to set his own bar this winter. He’s going to do that anyway.

All Pedroia can do is make it a little easier for him to do so.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.

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In reality, it only takes one team to overvalue, and, thus, overpay for a player on the trade market. But there’s always a group of players that’s viewed as having a certain value based on certain numbers, reputation and trade-market depth.  

For those reasons, certain players will be overrated, and some team will be taking a risk by acquiring them, even at fair market value.  

Unless the price somehow goes way down in the next 12 days, here are five overrated players whom your team should avoid acquiring before the trade deadline.

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Heading into the second half of the season, the Rookie of the Year races in MLB‘s two leagues will be looking to answer two different questions.

For the National League: All right, who wants it the most?

And for the American League: Seriously, does anybody want it, like, at all?

It’s just one of those years for the Junior Circuit. It had Mike Trout last year, as well as guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Yu Darvish and Jarrod Parker. This year, it’s got this guy, that guy and that other guy, none of whom is even close to being as good as any of last year’s top AL rookies.

It’s a good thing, then, that the Rookie of the Year race in the Senior Circuit is a dandy. The National League is overflowing with talented youngsters, and we’re at a point in the season now where the honor of being “the man to beat” is sort of up in the air.

Since the National League is where the real intrigue lies, we’ll begin there with our latest Rookie of the Year stock watch.

National League Candidates

1. Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins 

Stock: Up

Have you been paying attention to Jose Fernandez this season?

I suppose I don’t blame you if your answer is, “no” or a sheepish, “not really.” He is a Marlin, after all.

But if you haven’t been watching Fernandez, you’ve been missing out. The 20-year-old right-hander has absolutely electric stuff, and the numbers he’s racked up in his 18 starts speak for themselves.

What they don’t reveal, however, is just how good Fernandez has been lately. He’s been on an absolute tear since the start of June, racking up 52.1 innings in eight starts with a 1.92 ERA. He’s struck out 51 hitters in this span and limited batters to a .453 OPS.

Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins are looking to cap Fernandez’s innings at around 170, so the clock is ticking on his quest to win the Rookie of the Year award. But given the way he’s been pitching, Fernandez could still do a lot of damage before he hits his innings limit.

2. Shelby Miller, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

Stock: Down-ish

Shelby Miller is the author of 2013’s best pitching performance.

That’s according to Bill James’ Game Score, anyway. Per Baseball-Reference, Miller’s complete-game shutout against the Colorado Rockies back on May 10 earned him a game score of 98—the best in baseball for a single game in 2013.

But that was a while ago. In more recent history, it’s been a struggle for St. Louis’ 22-year-old right-hander. He’s basically been the anti-Fernandez since the start of June, pitching only 42.1 innings in eight starts with a 4.25 ERA and an opponents’ OPS of .718.

Miller’s overall numbers are still terrific, and Cardinals fans should certainly be excited for what the future holds for him. But he’s coming back to the pack after a hot start while Fernandez is only getting better, so Miller has some catching up to do in the Rookie of the Year race in the second half.

3. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Stock: Steady

Something weird happened in Hyun-Jin Ryu‘s final start before the All-Star break on July 10. He lasted only five innings and gave up five earned runs against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The number of times he had lasted only five innings before then: once.

The number of times he had given up at least five earned runs before then: once.

That’s the kind of season it’s been for Ryu. It’s hard to get noticed when you’re sharing a rotation with the marvelous Clayton Kershaw and the uber-rich Zack Greinke, but Ryu has been delightfully dependable for the Dodgers. 

Granted, Ryu has been human since the start of June, posting a 3.40 ERA in seven starts. This could be a product of teams having a better read on him, or it could be just one of those things.

4. Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Stock: Down

Before we get into the “What have you done for me lately?” stuff, let’s acknowledge that Yasiel Puig is still the best offensive rookie out there right now.

His numbers are outstanding, as a .391 average and a 1.038 OPS are nothing to scoff at. FanGraphs also has Puig leading all major league rookies in weighted on-base average and weighted runs created plus. That’s the geeky way of saying, “Dude can hit.”

There are, however, the two obvious hitches in Puig‘s Rookie of the Year candidacy. One is the small sample size of games. The other is that the league and bad luck are catching up to him.

Puig started July with a three-hit game in Colorado. In the 11 games that followed, he hit .267/.306/.311 with 14 strikeouts in 49 trips to the plate. He also got banged up a little bit in the process.

Puig is a phenomenal talent, so his slow finish to the first half could prove to be anomaly. Either that, or it could be the start of a stretch that will make the hype of June look awfully silly in retrospect.

5. Jedd Gyorko, 2B, San Diego Padres

Stock: Even

I don’t think there’s a no-brainer call for the No. 5 spot on this countdown, so I went with the National League rookie with the most production in the largest sample size.

That would be Jedd Gyorko. He’s only eighth among National League rookies in games played, according to MLB.com, but he has a better OPS than everyone ahead of him on the list.

They were even better before Gyorko had to go on the disabled list in early June, as he was sitting on a .284/.341/.461 line. But then he failed to reach base in each of the 12 plate appearances he got in three games fresh off the DL, driving his overall line down a bit.

They call that “rust” in the industry. If Gyorko can settle back into the groove he was in earlier, he’ll be fine.

Also in the Mix*

*In no particular order.

Evan Gattis, C, Atlanta Braves (Stock: Down)

Evan Gattis was a huge player in the Rookie of the Year race at the end of May when he was hitting .285 with a .961 OPS and 12 homers in 42 games. But since then, he’s spent some time on the disabled list and racked up two hits in his last 30 at-bats.

Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves (Stock: Down)

Julio Teheran was sitting on a 3.12 ERA following a 10-strikeout performance against the Diamondbacks in his last start of June. But in three July starts, he’s allowed nine earned runs in 17.2 innings. 

Didi Gregorius, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks (Stock: Down)

Remember how Didi Gregorius was being billed as an all-glove, no-bat shortstop before the Diamondbacks called him up? That’s what he’s been in his last 28 games, in which he’s hit just .195 with a .505 OPS. He’s on his way out of the Rookie of the Year race.

Matt Adams, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals (Stock: Up)

Quick, among NL rookies with at least 50 games played, who has the highest OPS?

It’s Matt Adams, of course. He owns a .917 OPS and has been particularly hot lately, hitting .333 with a 1.050 OPS and three home runs in his last 13 games.

Trevor Rosenthal, RP, St. Louis Cardinals (Stock: Down-ish)

Trevor Rosenthal has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball in 2013, but he’s hit a bit of a rough patch lately. After allowing six earned runs in his first 32 appearances, he’s allowed five earned runs in his last 11 appearances. In the process, he’s raised his ERA from 1.59 to 2.20.

American League Candidates*

*Of which there are really only three good ones, because the race really is that “meh.”

1. Jose Iglesias, 3B/SS, Boston Red Sox

Stock: Down

As recently as a couple months ago, nobody thought Jose Iglesias could hit, and there he is leading all American League rookies in batting average and OPS.

But you’ve probably caught wind of what’s been happening with Iglesias‘ bat lately. If not, well, suffice it to say it’s finally gone cold.

In his last 27 games, Iglesias is hitting .296 with a .709 OPS. In July, he’s hitting only .250 with a .586 OPS. Once his biggest allies, the BABIP gods have turned on Iglesias. His BABIP has gone from being well over .400 to being a mere .279 in July.

Still, there’s not a rookie hitter in the American League who has been as productive as Iglesias, and he gets extra points for giving the Red Sox good defense at both third base and shortstop. He’s trending backward, but he’s still the guy to beat in the American League race.

2. Dan Straily, SP, Oakland A’s

Stock: Up

His numbers may not look great, but only two other rookie starters in the American League have made more starts than Dan Straily. So that’s something.

But then there’s this: his last two times out, Straily‘s been dynamite.

In starts against the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates, Straily logged 13.1 innings and allowed only one earned run on three hits and six walks. He struck out 13.

Straily was subsequently optioned to Triple-A, but Rotoworld explains that was because the A’s weren’t going to need a fifth starter in the final days leading up to the All-Star break. Straily should be back in the majors soon, at which point he can look to continue building his Rookie of the Year stock.

3. Nick Tepesch, SP, Texas Rangers

Stock: Down

Nick Tepesch is one of the two rookie starters in the American League who have made more starts than Straily, and is certainly the better of the two. The other is Justin Grimm, who owns an ERA of 6.37.

Tepesch‘s 4.85 ERA looks pretty good in light of that monstrosity, but it looked a lot better about a month ago. Through his first 10 starts, Tepesch had a 3.44 ERA and was looking like a solid piece in Texas’ rotation. Then he posted a 7.42 ERA in his next six starts and is now on the disabled list with an elbow issue.

Tepesch is still a primary contender for the American League Rookie of the Year, but only because that’s just the way it is this year.

Also in the Mix*

*In no particular order.

Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (Stock: Up)

Chris Archer’s 2013 debut on June 1 didn’t go so well, as he surrendered five earned runs in only four innings of work. But since then, he owns a 2.27 ERA in eight starts. The most recent of those was a complete-game shutout against the Houston Astros. 

Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (Stock: Up)

Wil Myers owns a respectable .288/.321/.413 batting line, but he could do a lot better than that in the second half. He ended the first half with a flurry of hits in his last five games, collecting nine in 19 at-bats with a pair of walks on the side.

Nick Franklin, 2B, Seattle Mariners (Stock: Down)

Nick Franklin’s average was over .300 as recently as June 28, at which point he also had an .868 OPS. Then he hit .191 with a .610 OPS in his next 13 games. Yeesh. 

Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Minnesota Twins (Stock: Down)

Oswaldo Arcia was the owner of an .817 OPS when June came to a close. Then he hit .159 with a .377 OPS in his next 11 games, striking out 17 times in 46 plate appearances. Double yeesh.

Cody Allen, RP, Cleveland Indians (Stock: Even)

One of the more overlooked Rookie of the Year contenders in the American League, Cody Allen has been solid out of Cleveland’s bullpen this year to the tune of a 2.27 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 40 appearances. He allowed runs in back-to-back outings earlier this month, but none in his last five appearances.

If You’re Looking for Leonys Martin…

FanGraphs lists Leonys Martin in its rookie leaderboards and Grantland’s Jonah Keri gave him a shoutout in a midseason awards piece, but MLB.com doesn’t list Martin as a rookie and my understanding is that he logged too much major league service time in 2011 and 2012 to be considered a rookie heading into this season.

Final note: Stats are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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