Kuzul

Ah, the time has come.

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, we now stand just weeks away from what looks to be another memorable opening day for Major League Baseball.

After a confounding postseason in which we crowned the San Fransisco Giants world champions once more, many teams find themselves in a promising situation heading into the regular season.

However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  This is just spring training, as we all know.

So as preparation for the regular season begins to heat up, let’s take a look at each team’s status.

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Ervin Santana has been good but not great. He was 17-10 last season, with a 3.92 ERA, 1.320 WHIP and he chewed up 222.2 innings. At 28 years old, he isn’t likely to improve very much, but he could hold those numbers for some years. The Yankees lost Andy Pettite this week, who had a career 3.88 ERA, so Santana could be a logical replacement. But why would the Angels deal a valuable piece of their young rotation? 

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A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that Jered Weaver was very, very quietly having a Cy Young-caliber season.

Well, it just so happens that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have another pitcher who is very, very quietly having a solid season—not a Cy Young-caliber season, but a very solid season.

Angels pitcher Ervin Santana tossed the very rare complete game shutout on Tuesday night against the first place Texas Rangers. Santana gave up just five hits (all singles, by the way), walked just one, and struck out eight over his nine innings of work.

Santana didn’t induce a lot of swings and misses (only eight swings and misses out of 117 pitches thrown), but as you will see from his pitch plot below, Santana kept the ball away from lefties and did a great job of busting the righties in on the plate.

Santana improved to the quietest 17-9 on the season. After an injury-plagued 2008 season in which he only made 23 starts and had an ERA over five, Santana has really had a nice bounce-back season in 2010.

Santana’s stuff isn’t as good as it was in 2008, but he is getting by with one of the best sliders in the American League (12.3 wSL) and an improved BABIP. Hitters have a .291 average on balls in play off Santana, which is in line with what it was back in 2008 (.302). Last year, hitters had a .330 average on balls in play off Santana.

Many may not know it because the Angels have uncharacteristically fallen out of the playoff race, but Santana has quietly had a very good season in 2010.

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The season is long and right now it’s coming down to the wire for the top owners in their respective leagues.  These few players that are poised for either a huge week or a week you will want to avoid.  Pay attention, this could mean winning or not winning your league.

Start ‘Em:

Bill Hall | Boston Red Sox | 2.1% :  Take a walk on the wild side with this streaking player.  In his last 15 games Hall has crushed 4HRs with an OPS of .979.  In the next week he’ll be playing at both Yankee Stadium (Number one HR factor field) and the Ballpark in Arlington (Number two HR factor field), two of the best places to hit for power.

Chris Johnson | Houston Astros | 52.5% :  Chris Johnson has been hotter than the sun over the last two weeks.  While he probably wont be able to maintain these astounding numbers, he will most likely be able to post large numbers for the upcoming week.  Five of the six starters that Johnson will face are right handers.  Hitting righties is Johnson’s strength: .364 avg. 1.000 OPS in 107 ABs.  He also has 4HRs and 20RBIs against righties as well.

Jon Jay | St. Louis Cardinals | 7.8% :  Since his call-up, Jay has been a pure hitter.  He’s been raking ever since and has yet to stop.  In his 32 ABs this year against the Reds and Cubs Jay is hitting .406 with an OBP of .441.  Unfortunately, Jay is mainly a three-trick pony depending on how many categories your league has.  He can typically be expected to help in average, on-base, and runs.

Sit ‘Em:

Jay Bruce | Cincinnati Reds | 76% :  Bruce’s upcoming stretch against the Cardinals is going to be brutal for his owners.  Bruce’s career numbers against the Cardinals are: .199 avg, .259 OBP.  Not to mention he is currently on a long cold streak, hitting .188 over the last 30 games.

Jack Cust | Oakland A’s | 10% :  Jack Cust and the rest of the Oakland A’s have the worst schedule for power this upcoming week.  They will be playing at Safeco and Target Field next week.  These two fields are the third-worst and worst fields for homeruns.  Cust has also slowed down as of late, hitting .222 over the course of the last seven games.

Two-Start Pitchers To Use:

Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 86% :  Scherzer has been fairly dominant as of late.  Fantasy players should look for him to continue this dominance through his upcoming two-start week.  His first start comes against the Rays at home.  Scherzer is 6-2 at home this season and has a 2.90 ERA since the All-Star game.  Further supporting his start, the Rays are hitting .091 (2 for 22) against him for their career.  Scherzer has pitched against the White Sox twice this year with fairly strong numbers.  In the 14 innings against them Scherzer has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP and a K/9 ratio of nine.

Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 86.8% :  Santana has been on a skid as of late but he should be able to correct this with his upcoming two starts.  His first opponent is Kansas City then Toronto, both starts coming at home.  In a combined 33.1 innings this year against both teams Santana has 2.47 ERA and a 3-1 Win-Loss record.  In over 250 ABs, the players of both teams have a combined career batting average against Santana of .255.

Two-Start Pitchers To Avoid:

Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 77% :  Jurrjens has pitched with mixed success since coming back from the DL this season.  Now is not the time to take a chance on the two-start opportunity he faces this upcoming week.  His career against the Dodgers goes to the tune of a 4.03ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a .284 BAA.  Meanwhile, the heart of the Dodger’s order (Ethier, Kemp, Loney) have a collective career .360 avg. against Jurrjens.  Jurrjens has faced the Astros a limited amount and has not done much better.  His ever descending GB/FB rate should put his start in the Band Box of Minute Maid Park.

Edwin Jackson | Chicago White Sox | 40% :  Jackson’s two-start week is bound for disaster.  His first start is against Baltimore, at Baltimore.  Normally Baltimore is not much of a threat, but in three starts at Camden Yards Jackson has a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.  His next start against his old team the Tigers at his new home at U.S. Cellular Field.  At U.S. Cellular Field Jackson has a career 4.88 ERA 1.63 WHIP, and players are hitting .301 against him.  Fantasy owners have to also take into account that U.S. Cellular Field is the second-most homerun friendly park in existance.

Hind Sight:

For curiosity sake, here is how last week’s predictions held up through games as of 8-6:

Start ‘Em:

Jorge Cantu: One for four.  Played in only one game.

Josh Willingham: .357 avg. .438 OBP, 0R 0HR 1RBI.  The hitting is great, but there is more to fantasy than two categories.

Rajai Davis: .200 avg. .273 OBP, 3R 1HR 2RBI

Sit ‘Em:

David Wright: .063 avg. 1 for 16 as of print time.  Gotta pat myself on the back for this call.

Matt Kemp: .400 avg. .471 .OBP, 2R 1HR 3RBI.  His 5-5 game inflates last week’s line

Carl Crawford: .125 avg. .222 OBP, 2R 0HR 2RBI.  The Runs and RBI are decent, but Crawford should be held to higher standards.

Pitchers:

Travis Wood: 7IP 2H 0ER 1BB 4K

Mat Latos: 6IP 4H 2ER 2BB 6K

All Statistical Information was obtained through ESPN.com

Written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by James Bryce.  James is a Grad student at UCSD and is currently in his 13th year of fantasy sports.

Got a two-start pitching candidate for week 19?  
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

After three innings of starting pitching giving up little excitement besides a Brandon Wood vault to catch a line drive at third base, it was evident that fans at the Big A were in for another duel of starting pitchers on Saturday night.  Starters Ervin Santana and Bruce Chen brought their stuff to shine as bright as the Fourth of July white on each team’s caps for the holiday weekend.

The first three innings of the game passed in less than 50 minutes as batters were retired almost in order.  The only hit to that point was the leadoff for Kansas City.  Santana walked one in the top of the fourth before re-asserting his control over the game by sitting down Wilson Betemit on strikes, putting down 10 of the previous 11 batters.

Bruce Chen had also sat down the first nine of 10 Angel batters when he entered the bottom the fourth inning.  Groundouts from Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick, brought up Bobby Abreu, who flew out to David DeJesus. DeJesus robbed Abreu by diving on the warning track to grab the flyout, his second diving catch of the game at center field.

Second baseman Howie Kendrick made two consecutive catches for outs in the top of the fifth inning.  Yuniesky Betancourt grounded out to Brandon Wood to end the top of the fifth inning less than an hour after first pitch.

Even a 1-4-3 groundout off the pitcher Chen’s foot bounced into favor of the starter as the Royals defense stood toe to toe with their counterparts.  Napoli and Matsui were easy outs to follow as Chen put the first 15 Angels down in order in the bottom of the fifth.

A Jason Kendall sacrifice bunt moved Podsednik to second base in the top of the sixth inning.  DeJesus lined out to center for the second out, bringing up Butler, who stood in for 10 pitches before taking a walk for the second time.  Guillen stepped in with two runners on and it was Reggie Willits taking his turn at a diving catch to end the inning.

Chen’s first strikeout sat down leadoff man Jeff Mathis in the bottom of the sixth. Chen then  popped out Brandon Wood and grounded out Willits to continue his perfection through 18 at bats without breaking 90 miles per hour. 

Scott Podsednik failed to get his third hit in the top of the seventh as the Royals sat down in order, continuing seven shutout innings for Ervin Santana.

In the bottom of the seventh, Aybar drilled the first Angel hit for a single between second and third. Howie Kendrick dropped a sacrifice bunt, bringing up Bobby Abreu, who struck out on an 85 mph fastball with Aybar on second.  With two outs, Torii Hunter was intentionally walked, and Mike Napoli popped out to end the first threat to Chen’s shutout.

Kendall’s two-out hit in the top of the eighth was followed by a DeJesus single and hit batter Butler for the Royals to load the bases for the hitless Jose Guillen, who drove in two runners.

The shutout for Chen was ended by Jeff Mathis’s second home run of the season, making it 2-1 Kansas City. The Royals brought in reliever Kyle Farnsworth, who struck out Brandon Wood. Reggie Willits then grounded out for the second time.

Heading into the ninth with the score from the previous game, 2-1 in favor of Kansas City, the Royals looked to add insurance runs. A bunt followed by a bloop hit for Betancourt put two runners with one out on before Santana was lifted for Francisco Rodriguez, who walked the bases loaded.  A force out at second brought in a third run for Kansas City.  Betancourt then scored on a wild pitch to make it 4-1 Royals before the end of the inning.

The Angels took the bat down three runs with three outs remaining to keep pace with their rivals in Texas, who had beaten the White Sox.  Joakim Soria had converted his previous 12 save opportunities with an overall 2.35 ERA. 

Aybar led off with an infield hit, his second of the game.  A botched bunt by Kendrick made the first out as Abreu stepped in with a base hit, making Torii Hunter the tying run at the plate.  Hunter walked to load the bases with one out.  Napoli popped a sacrifice fly ball to foul territory making it a 4-2 Royals lead.  Matsui followed with runners on second and third with two outs but he struck out to end the game.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

While lefty starter Joe Saunders came out strong through eight innings on Friday night at Angel Stadium, Brian Fuentes was not able to slam the door on a 1-0 lead with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. 

Kansas City’s Mike Aviles was able to break through the shutout attempt with an RBI hit, his second hit of the ballgame, forcing the Angels to extend into extra innings where the Halos would fall short 2-1 to the Royals in Game 1 of a holiday weekend in Southern California.

A tide-turning attempt to steal home by Torii Hunter in the bottom of the 8th affected the outcome of the ballgame.  Hunter scored the only run for the Angels in the bottom of the fourth driven in by a Mike Napoli drive.  Each team had nine hits in the game but struggled to advance runners from scoring position.

A pitcher’s duel turned to a seven-inning gridlock between Davies and Saunders which was disrupted in extra innings by a Bloomquist RBI which brought in Betancourt for the game-taking lead which the Angels could not respond to in the bottom of the tenth inning.

The Angels hope to tie up the holiday series on Saturday night when they send Ervin Santana to the mound, seeking his ninth victory on the season as he faces off with Bruce Chen of the Royals. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

At 26-27, the L.A. Angels have been a disappointment thus far. Although they haven’t lived up to popular expectations, the Angels only sit 2.5 games behind the first place Oakland A’s in the AL West.

A large reason for the Angels lack of production this season has been their inconsistent hitting, led by sub-par pitching. The Angel’s pitching staff currently sits at 24th in the MLB with a 4.63 ERA. Their starters have produced a combined 4.56 ERA and gathered 18 of the Angles 26 wins.

The Angels pitching hasn’t been awful, but they certainly haven’t lived up to expectations. Acquiring right-hander Joel Pineiro last off-season was projected to help Jered Weaver and the rest of the staff after loosing ace John Lackey to free agency.

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There is an old saying that goes something like this: “Some days you get the bear, some days the bear gets you, and some days it doesn’t pay to go into the woods.”

Those words could be used to describe all of the pitchers in this article. Most of these guys are not bums or “tomato cans”. Most are decent pitchers while some are even very good.

When things go badly, they tend to bundle up on you. Ask any of these men and I am sure they will concur.

Not all of them completed the inning. They do have much in common however. They all surrendered at least eight hits, at least six earned runs, and they all faced at least 10 batters.

In some instances the “inning” consists of three outs, not necessarily in the same frame. However, that is what history reflects, one inning (or less).

With that as a background let us look at the 10 worst innings by active pitchers.

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Ervin “El Magic” Santana was at his best Thursday night against the Chicago White Sox. In seven innings, Santana allowed seven hits and three walks, striking out six and surrendering just one unearned run. His stuff gave AL homer leader Paul Konerko fits all evening (0-for-3 off Ervin with two K’s, and 0-for-5 with three K’s on the night).

In his last two starts, Santana seems to be getting on a roll. Over those two starts, he has beaten Oakland and Chicago. The right-hander has tossed 13 innings, giving up a total of two earned runs (1.38 ERA), walking six and striking out 12 (a high walk total, but a good K-to-BB ratio of 2:1). Both those starts, as you would imagine, were wins for Santana. Overall for the season, he now sits at 3-3, with a 3.75 ERA.  

So now, here’s the question: has “El Magic” really turned the corner and gotten on a roll? Looking closely at the numbers, some concerns begin to surface.

Santana’s 2009 season was a tough one, primarily because of injury troubles that kept his velocity down. He was limited to just 139.2 innings, and posted an 8-8 record with a 5.03 ERA and 1.48 WHIP… nothing to write home about.

However, some of his magic resurfaced in the postseason. Placed in the bullpen for the Angels’ ALCS showdown with New York, Ervin was outstanding. In four relief appearances he posted a 1.59 ERA and whiffed five Yankees in 5.2 innings pitched. Certainly with that rebound in the postseason, the Angels entered 2010 with high hopes for a return to dominance from Ervin Santana.

The returns so far in 2010 have been mixed (seems like that could be written for every facet of the team so far, doesn’t it?). Santana got off to a slow start this season, posting an April that looked more 2009 struggles were on the horizon: 1-2, 4.59 ERA, six HR in just 33.1 innings. When May came along, however, Santana turned the record around. In May so far, Ervin is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and just three HR in 26.2 innings.

One could say that those May numbers are proof: Ervin is back! However, there are other numbers to consider. While it is true that Santana’s April was a losing month with a pedestrian ERA, he did post a pretty strong WHIP ratio of 1.23 in the season’s first month. Perhaps he was a little unlucky in April?

On the other hand, his improved May record and ERA come with a surprising (and somewhat alarming) companion stat: a 1.54 WHIP ratio in the month. To put that in perspective, most quality major league starters need to have a WHIP of roughly 1.20 to have sustained success. 1.54 means essentially that for every two innings a pitcher works, he will have a total of three baserunners.

To say that Ervin Santana has been much more lucky in May than in April is an understatement. Bear in mind also that defensive miscues do not factor into WHIP: this ratio strictly counts walks and hits (events over which Santana holds more control). There is some cause for concern in Halo Country if Santana continues to give up baserunners at his May clip.

There is another angle to consider as well. Taking a look at Santana’s nine starts this season, one can see five Quality Starts (at least six IP and three ER or less). Those five quality starts have been against Toronto, Cleveland, Boston, Oakland and Chicago. These five teams have combined for an overall W-L record of 98-108, with only two—Toronto and Boston—with records above .500. These teams also have, with the exception of Toronto and Boston again, poor team offensive numbers:

Toronto: .242/.310/.459– 769 team OPS
Cleveland: .246/.331/.357– 688 team OPS
Boston: .270/.348/.455– 803 team OPS
Oakland: .252/.316/.363– 679 team OPS
Chicago (AL): .233/.314/.384– 698 team OPS

So Santana’s quality starts have essentially come against under-performing teams (remember that Boston has only recently started to heat up, and Toronto’s team offensive numbers look very different if you remove Vernon Wells’ incredible start to 2010).

What about his four starts that were not Quality Starts? They came against Minnesota, New York, New York again and Seattle. Their overall combined record is 64-59 (Seattle skews that, the Twins and Yankees are 49-33). While Seattle has been a terrible offensive ball club so far (648 team OPS, worst in the AL), the Twins and Yankees are in the upper tier offensively. The Twins sport a 769 OPS, while New York is at 818.

So what do all these numbers really mean? Santana was unlucky in April, and has been lucky in May. He has beaten up on the lower-eschelon teams, while the better-hitting teams have gotten the better of him. Overall, the numbers are still pretty good.

The 3-3 record and 3.75 ERA are solid; while his overall WHIP of 1.37 is not spectacular, it places him in the AL’s top 40 (tied for 29th with Minnesota’s Scott Baker). His strikeout-to-walk ratio sits at 2.60, and his strikeouts-per-nine innings is currently 7.8. There are certainly encouraging numbers to go with the numbers that are not as impressive (opponents are batting .270 off Ervin, a rather high number).    

There is no question that Santana has electric stuff—quite possibly the best in the Angels’ rotation. There also is no question that Ervin is an enigma. He can look absolutely brilliant one night, then get knocked around his next time out.

Ervin Santana needs to take the next step in his development and become the elite pitcher he can be. At 27 years old, he is entering his prime—posting numbers like his 2008 season (16-7, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K’s) should not be unreasonable. If Ervin can come close to those 2008 numbers again, the Angels have a 1-2 punch in Weaver and Santana that can stand up against any team.

Here’s hoping that “El Magic’s” last two performances are truly the sign of great things to come, and not just predictable dominance of two of the league’s
worst-hitting teams. 

For more Angels coverage visit LA Angels Insider.com

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