Kuzul

The recent rash of perfect games and no hitters has many people scratching their heads. Some are calling it the “Year of the Pitcher,” while others think it’s due to the eradication of steroids in the sport.

But for all the analyzing and debating, everyone seems to be forgetting one thing: sports are notoriously unpredictable, and can be more random than a clueless crossword puzzle. I mean, who could have predicted three major players all going down on thumb injuries within the same short time span (four if you count the recently returning Aramis Ramirez)?

While we still haven’t invented a reliable injury-predicting machine (looking at you, scientists), we do have stats at our disposal that can help us figure out (or at least get a ballpark estimate) of a player’s future production.

These two stats basically work by separating luck from a player’s actual skill. BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is a major one for pitchers and hitters which tells us how many balls are dropping for hits.

.300 is the traditional average, so anything way above that number for hitters or way below that number for pitchers means they are getting favorable plays on balls hit into the field. As BABIP regresses towards the median, it almost always results in a drop in production.

FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) is pretty self-explanatory, but more important for pitchers than BABIP. It tells us how much help a pitcher is getting from his defense and how much of his ERA is for real.

ERAs tend to go in the direction of their FIP, and when it’s close you can usually count on them staying steady for a while.

I use those two stats frequently when assessing a player’s future value, so make sure those are two stats you look at first. Here’s some other random numbers I’ve come across recently.

Three

Number of times the Tampa Bay Rays have been no-hit in the past 12 months, most recently by the Diamondbacks’ Edwin Jackson .

I don’t know how one of the best offenses in the league can have this happen to them so frequently. Many people benched Dallas Braden for his Mother’s Day start against the Rays, not the worst idea had he not thrown a perfect game.

Again, this should be regarded merely as a quirky aberration, and you can definitely bank on the Rays’ lineup going forward.

Still, it’s mind boggling to think how this could happen. Did the power go out in their hotel room? Was there a particular meal they ate on the plane? Who was mixing the Kool-Aid that days? We may never know…

.403

June BABIP for emerging ace Tommy Hanson , whose been hit pretty hard lately.

In his last two starts he’s allowed 14 earned runs and been knocked around for 21 hits, only two fewer than he allowed all of April.

But his FIP is a very healthy 3.44, a full run below his ERA, and as we see in his BABIP, he’s definitely in line for a huge rebound and will continue to have a stellar season.

Consider this a minor bump in the road.

Seven

Stolen bases over the past five games for Chone Figgins , including three last Friday.

Even for a stat like steals where many times production comes in bunches, this is a huge number. Anyone who has kept the faith with Figgins won that category last week.

While his batting average and run totals have been a major disappointment this season, he’s still on pace for 40+ stolen bases, and he’s batting an encouraging .276 for June.

A player with a .300 average over the past three seasons doesn’t dip this bad for an entire year.

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There are only five teams in Major League Baseball with a worse record than the Seattle Mariners.

The M’s are 14 games behind the red-hot Texas Rangers in the division standings. They’re 13 games off the pace for the Wild Card.

The Seattle Mariners should be sellers at the trade deadline, right? Well, they just gave up two minor-league prospects to the Cleveland Indians for 34-year old Russell Branyan whom they declined to sign over the off-season.

Yes, we’re all trying to digest this one: An aging power hitter with a .233 career batting average who has had injury issues the last few years is what Seattle needs during this disappointing season?

Russell hit 31 homers for the Mariners last year and they wouldn’t even reward him with a contract because of injury concerns with a herniated disc that cut his 2009 season short.

Matter of fact, Branyan wasn’t getting interest from any teams and didn’t get a deal from the Indians until Feb. 20 this year. He started the year on the DL with a neck injury.

Now, the Mariners are giving up prospects to take on the free-agent contract he signed with Cleveland. Branyan does have 10 homers this season, which is three more than Seattle’s Milton Bradley, who hit his team-leading seventh home run last night.

General Manager Jack Zduriencik won’t admit the Mariners are done for the year, but does believe winning some games the rest of the year is important to developing the young guys on the team.

“If you look at our team, as we move forward, just about every player who is here now will be here again next year,” he said. “We’re committed to the development of our players and that goal, that objective has never changed for us.

“But part of that development process is also winning games. We want our players to be able to experience winning games this year. And we’re trying to do what we can to give them what they need to get there.”

Since the Mariners’ offseason acquisitions have had abysmal outcomes, Seattle fans have been wondering what the team will do to right the ship for next year.

There are only seven games before the official halfway point of the season, and it seemed apparent the M’s would be finding a buyer for Cliff Lee and maybe unloading a couple of other players for prospects.

This move seems to dictate the Mariners are going to roll the dice and see what happens. Trader Jack is now becoming Gamblin’ Jack.

Zduriencik got a lot of credit for the moves the Mariners made and now he is getting some flak about how the new players have performed. Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley have been horrible. Ian Snell is in Triple-A.

Meanwhile, Carlos Silva has revived his career in Chicago and Brandon Morrow just pitched his fifth consecutive quality start.

Jack’s ego has taken a hit and he wants to prove this team capable of winning. If he can pull that off, he will be even more revered in Seattle.

If he can’t pull it off, he will have cost the Mariners a chance to gain valuable prospects from the trade of Cliff Lee as well as the prospects given up for Branyan and possibly another offensive piece coming soon.

Cliff Lee is a free agent at the end of the year, and though he is probably the most sought after and valuable trade option this year, teams aren’t ready to give up a bunch of top-level loot for a rental player.

The Mariners will still get compensatory draft picks for Lee if he signs elsewhere as a free agent in the off-season, so maybe Zduriencik believes it wise to keep Lee in the lineup for the year and see what happens if the Mariners can score a few more runs by adding some offense.

Maybe Jack’s idea is to right the ship for this year!

Seattle has a strong pitching rotation with Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and Jason Vargas. They got Doug Fister back from the DL last night and Erik Bedard is due back, barring any setbacks, sometime in July. The Mariners rank ninth in the Majors in team ERA.

They are fifth in quality starts and third in complete games. They are only going to get better from this point going forward.

Adding Branyan is a good way to get some power in the lineup, but their offense is beyond pathetic, ranking 29th in runs scored, 29th in hits, 27th in batting average, and dead last (30th) in home runs.

Branyan is not going to correct those numbers by himself, so Gamblin’ Jack will need to get another bat in the lineup.

Rumors of players potentially becoming trade options before the deadline include Matt Kemp, Prince Fielder, and Lance Berkman.

None of them seem to make sense now that Branyan has been acquired and all of them would require several prospects and, in Kemp’s situation, Major League-ready starting pitchers.

It was rumored that Seattle was looking for a catcher in any deal with Cliff Lee. Could Zduriencik pull off a trade with Pittsburgh (they have trading history) for Moses Lake, Wash., product Ryan Doumit?

Doumit would bring a veteran presence and a bat with some pop in it. He is a three-hole type hitter and along with Branyan, would revamp the middle of the Seattle batting order at a reasonable cost.

Doumit has also had some issues with Pittsburgh management that has landed him in the doghouse in the past. He is signed through 2011 with club options for 2012 and 2013.

Would a lineup of Ichiro (RF), Figgins (2B), Doumit (C), Branyan (1B/DH), Franklin Gutierrez (CF), Mike Sweeney (1B/DH), Milton Bradley (LF/DH), Jose Lopez (3B), and Jack Wilson (SS) be enough?

The Mariners have won seven of their last nine games, including a six-game winning streak, but they lost a half game in the standings to the Texas Rangers.

Texas is on pace for 98 wins. The Mariners would have to go 67-21 the rest of the way to win 98 games. Can they win 76% of their remaining games? It is unlikely, so they would need both the Rangers and Angels to stumble along the way.

Gamblin’ Jack may be looking for the right piece of the puzzle to get his team back in the race, but at his point it seems too late in the game.

If not, Branyan is simply a morale booster to help build some confidence that Jack hopes will carry over to next season.

Giving up two prospects for a 34-year old morale booster seems too costly, so look for the Mariners and Gamblin’ Jack to make another move very soon.

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Evan Longoria was drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays with the 3rd pick of the 2006 amateur player draft out of Cal-State Long Beach. Rays fans knew as soon as they heard about this kid that he was going to be great.

After spending two years in the minor leagues, Longoria hit a combined .301/.386/.534 with 44 home runs and 144 RBI, all before his 22nd birthday.

Knowing what they had on their hands, with a team that they felt confident with, Andrew Friedman knew that he had to call up Longoria if the team was going to contend.

Within one week of being called up, the Rays locked Longoria up to the longest contract in team history with a nine year $44 million deal. 

Clearly the Rays had a lot of confidence in Longoria, as they were not afraid to make this large of a commitment to a player with less than 30 career at-bats . So far, Longoria has already outperformed the contract that he signed.

You may be asking how a player that has played fewer than 400 career games could be considered the best player at his position in the American League; especially with Alex Rodriguez still playing. The answer, however, is fairly simple:

Defense

Longoria plays some of the best defensive third base in all of major league baseball. Whether it’s ranging far to his right and making a leaping throw across the diamond, or charging a bunt, bare-handing it, and making the out at first, the kid can really do it all. 

In his second season, Longoria brought home what many people believe to be his first of many Gold Gloves over his career.

Longoria has already made eight errors this year, his RF/G is at 2.77, which is still above the league average of 2.72. So, while he has made a number of errors, he still gets to more balls than a lot of third basemen in Major League Baseball would get to.

Speed

No one is going to mistake Evan Longoria for Chone Figgins, Scott Podsednik, or Carl Crawford, but this kid has some real sneaky speed.

Over his career, Longoria has been successful on 92.8% of his steal attempts (26/28), including ten stolen bases this year.

Right now, Evan is on pace for about 33 home runs and 30 stolen bases. If he is able to maintain this pace, he will be the first third baseman in the American League to complete this feat since Tommy Harper did it for the Milwaukee Brewers back in 1970.

Overall Batting

This is the one spot of Longoria’s game that I feel is only going to get better over the next few years, which is saying a lot because he had a line of .281/33/114 last year.

Longoria’s batting eye has been getting better each year that he has been in professional baseball, because of that he is starting to see which pitches that he can drive, which pitches to lay off, and he is starting to learn when to push the ball instead of always trying to pull it.

Do I think that Longoria is ever going to hit 45 home runs? No, probably not. But, it is certainly not out of reach for him to one day put up .330/39/130, especially if the Rays can keep him surrounded with the talent that they have.

Conclusion

Why did I say that Evan Longoria is just the best third baseman in the American League and not all of baseball? Well, at this point in their careers, I would have to give the edge to Ryan Zimmerman for the best player in baseball. If Longoria reaches the peaks that I set out for him in the next few years, that may sway my opinion. 

However, Evan Longoria is the best third baseman in the American League, right now.

Who do you feel deserves this honor right now? Does Alex Rodriguez still hold this, or is there someone else that I may be forgetting?

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Sometimes, I think that my punishment in life for all the bad things I’ve done, and will do in the future, is being a devoted Seattle Mariners fan.

It’s not an easy life, and one that takes a certain kind of person to fully commit to it.

We must be masochists. The constant pain and despair that my team has brought me over my 23 years on this earth is enough to drive a man straight into the arms of a bottle of Jack Daniels.

I know there are other fan bases out there with similar, or even harder, teams to root for. Looking at you, Cubbies, I feel your pain.

Perhaps the largest cause of headaches for us Mariners fans is the fact that it seems that the moves we make to improve seem to always blow up, ending in tears for all those involved.

And now, we go back into the darkness, and look at some of these front office mishaps.

P.S. I hate you Bill Bavasi.

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Admit it: you don’t know if J.A. Happ’s name is “Jay” or “J.A.” Despite the fact that his name is clearly listed in every scorecard, box score, and recap as “J.A.’, announcers uniformly refer to him as “Jay Happ.”

Happ is hardly the first baseball player in major league history to have a name that befuddles fans and sportscasters alike. Part of the fun of America’s most international sport is a wide array of easily mis-pronounced names.

For a lot of these guys, baseball being an international sport is only technically an excuse.

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As of today (5/23/2010), the Seattle Mariners sit at 16-28 record, good enough for last place in the American League West and third worst record in the entire MLB. Prior to the season, the Mariners were predicted to win the AL West, but so far, it hasn’t gone that way. What can we do to fix this team?

1. Convert back Jose Lopez to 2B, Chone Figgins to 3B

During the spring training, the Mariners converted Lopez to 3B and Figgins to 2B. That worked out for Lopez defensively, as he is posting 32.3 UZR/150 and 11 Defensive Runs Saved. But for Figgins, it has been a nightmare, posting -12.2 UZR/150 and zero Defensive Runs Saved.

This conversion effected both offensively, as Lopez is hitting .211 BA/.240 OBP/.263 SLG and Figgins .195 BA/.305 OBP/.252 SLG. Converting back to their familiar position will relax them and would bring a good result offensively.

2. Switch Figgins and Ichiro in the Lineup

That means Figgins would hit lead-off and Ichiro would hit second in the lineup. This may sound stupid, but Figgins is used to hit from the lead-off spot and can hit around .300 with .400 OBP there.

So we can think of a situation like this: Figgins walks, steal second then scores on Ichiro’s single. That way, the Mariners can score runs easily in the first inning. So far, the Mariners haven’t been able to pressure opponent’s pitcher from their speedy number one and two hitter.

3. Call Up Chad Cordero from Tacoma

In last night’s 8-1 loss against the Padres, Don Wakamatsu brought in Jesus Colome to pitch in the eighth inning in a 2-run game. As a result, Colome couldn’t get any out and gave up three earned runs, giving the Mariners almost no chance to rally back.

I don’t know what Wak was thinking, bringing Colome in a close game, but this may be due to the fact that the Mariners only have 11 pitchers on the active roster right now and didn’t wanted to use guys like Brandon League and Shawn Kelley. Eleven pitchers on the roster didn’t worked out earlier in the season and it is not working out right now as well.

Cordero, in AAA Tacoma, is striking out more than a batter per inning and can be a nice addition to the bullpen. In that case, Michael Saunders will be optioned or Ryan Langerhans would be designated for assignment since the Mariners want to keep Ken Griffey Jr.

Cordero is a fly-ball pitcher, but Safeco Field is pitcher’s paradise so he should be fine in Seattle.

Of course, by doing this three doesn’t guarantee the Mariners will bounce back. They need to support their starting pitchers more, and they need their relievers to pitch better, but when nothing is working out, they should try anything possible, and maybe something might work out.

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There were many baseball fans, myself included, who thought that the Mariner’s were the real day. Who wouldn’t? They showed vast improvements in 2009 and they made a bunch of moves to get even better. The fact that the Angels looked pretty weak only help the Mariners’ chances. Oh were we wrong.

This team can’t hit, can’t score, and can’t hit home runs. It doesn’t even matter that they can’t hit home runs because there’s no one on the stadium to catch them. What exactly went wrong?

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It always hurts to see a batter struggling to hit at the plate. It is always annoying to see a batter swing at pitches they have no business swinging at. It is just as annoying for a hitter’s average to drop 100 points in a season.

These are the hitters who just cannot catch a break this season. They’ve hit in the past, but suddenly cannot find the ball. Some are struggling yet not doing terribly, others are just playing horrendously.

These are the 10 baseball players whose bat has, to be blunt, just went dead.

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I’m in love with a man whom I’ve never met. My knowledge of his life is minimal, and he doesn’t even know I exist. Yet he’s affected my life in ways few have, and I preach his praises to any congregation that will listen.

I am, of course, referring to Chone Figgins.

For the better part of five years, Mr. Figgins has been the cornerstone of my fantasy baseball dynasty (and I do mean dynasty, as “Beall’s Bleacher Bums” have taken home the league crown in four straight seasons). Unfortunately, a glance at the back of his baseball card wouldn’t concur with this statement. Not that he’s had a bad career; quite the contrary. But lifetime averages of .291 BA, .365 OBP, 5 HR, 59 RBI, 100 R and 48 SB would hardly qualify consideration of “fantasy foundation” status. So when others question the validity of my affection for Figgins (which is often), I counter with this simple argument: position flexibility. To elaborate, Chone Figgins has the versatility to be penciled into six positions on the diamond.

For fantasy intentions, that declaration is not technically accurate, as most leagues have three umbrella “OF” slots rather than individual (LF, CF, RF) positions. Yet, keeping this constraint in mind, the ability to maneuver a player into 2nd, 3rd, SS, OF or Utility is a wildly underrated asset to possess in fantasy baseball. Anyone who has participated in a fantasy league understands the disgust and dismay of a vacant 2nd baseman spot while three outfielders waste away on the bench. But with the help of my man Figgins, this dilemma is alleviated.

Think I’m making much ado about nothing? Reconsider this premise amigo, for one of the hidden secrets to fantasy success is not so much dependent on how your players perform; rather, it’s how often they perform. Referring back to the scenario above, starting a less-than-filled lineup in fantasy is a recipe for disaster. As I researched through past final standings in rotisserie leagues, there was strong correlation between the top teams and high player at-bat/game totals. To summarize, the more at-bats your team gets, the better chance you have of accumulating statistics. A simply theory in principle, yet one that somehow alludes a majority of fantasy users.

Which brings us back to Figgins. An uber-utility man, Figgins was a late-season call-up for Angels’ 2002 World Series run, mostly serving as pinch-runner. In ’03 he opened his career roving center, transitioned to 3rd in ’04, split time in between 2nd, 3rd, and OF in ’05, returned to center in ’06, before finally finding a (somewhat) permanent home at 3rd from ’07 to ’09. In today’s day and age of ultimate ego in professional sports, few athletes have the humility to disregard their personal interests for the betterment of the team. You may think position rotation is inconsequential, but for many in the sport, baseball is all about routine, and the uncertainty of where one will be placed can add unnecessary anxiety. The fact that Figgins did this for years was relatively lost upon the baseball world, save for Angel fans and Figgins fantasy owners.

Figgins hasn’t been the only one to man multiple positions. Last season, Ben Zobrist burst onto the AL East scene by compiling a .297 BA, .405 OBP, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 90 R line while playing seven positions for Tampa Bay. Mark DeRosa was featured at five different areas of the field while splitting time with Cleveland and St. Louis in ’09. The newest addition to this list is Martin Prado , who is hitting .354 with 16 Runs in 2010 and has the capability to play 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.

Staying true to my Figgins philosophy, I was able to select Zobrist in my league’s draft this season. Tragically, Figgins himself was robbed from my grasps a selection too soon, and the Bleacher Bums will be without his services for the first time since I hit puberty. So to mark this end of an era, I bid this ode to you Chone. Farewell my friend. Farewell.

Start ’em: Jay Bruce, Reds. Although the Reds’ right-fielder struggled to the start the season (6 for 41 at the plate), Bruce has been on a tear since, hitting .348 with 4 HRs and 14 Runs since April 18.

Sit ’em: Joe Mauer , Twins. The reigning AL MVP might miss a few weeks rather than a few games while nursing a bruised left heel. Mauer was batting .345 with a .406 OBP and 13 RBI before being relegated to the bench. In a related note, we hear all the time about the “Madden cover curse” but how about the misfortune that has befallen those who have graced the front of “MLB: The Show?” In ’07, David Wright appears as the pitchman, only for the Mets to suffer a late-season collapse of epic proportions, losing 12 of their last 17. Dustin Pedroia ‘s batting average is 30 points lower to his previous season after his image is plastered in the front of the ’09 edition. And now Mauer’s foot injury. In the words of my friend John, “Not saying, just saying.”

Fantasy Flashback: This segment will spotlight a player who would’ve been a fantasy force had rotisserie leagues existed in that particular period. Today we salute 1894 Billy Hamilton . Billy had quite the campaign for the Philadelphia Phillies , hitting .404 with an absurd .523 OBP, while stealing 98 bases and scoring 192 times. Granted, the stolen base and run totals are slightly diminished when you learn Hamilton averaged nearly 7 at-bats a game, as well competing in a time when the sport was segregated. However, according to the ever-reliable Wikipedia, Hamilton is one of 5 men in baseball history to hit a leadoff AND walk-off home run in the same game. So he’s got that going for him.

Waiver Wire Watch: Fausto Carmona , Indians. After two seasons riddled with injuries and control issues, Carmona appears to have regained his 2007 form (in which he won 19 games). Carmona is 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA (which can be contributed to a 6 IP/6 ER performance against MIN) in 2010, and is owned by only 33-percent of those in fantasy leagues. While he’s not a big K producer, Carmona will eat up plenty of innings while posting a moderately low ERA.

Rookie Review: Justin Smoak, Rangers. Lost in the Jason Heyward-mania has been the call-up of Smoak, a unanimous top-10 prospect heading into the 2010 season. Appearing at three levels in ’09, Smoak combined to hit .290 with a .410 OBP. A switch-hitter, Smoak should benefit from playing in hitter-friendly Arlington, and despite a slow start, is 5 for his last 19 with 2 HRs.

This week in Jonathon Broxton: Broxton’s line so far in the 2010 campaign: 1-0, 1 SV, 14 Ks with a 0.00 ERA. You may inquire why Broxton merits his own section. My rebuttal: 1) The man fires a 100mph fastball 2) He rocks the muttonchops 3) Dude’s playing baseball despite pushing three bills and 4) Swaggers out from the bullpen to Black Sabbath. Need I say more?

Trade Talk: Today’s trade discussion centers on dealing floundering early-round selections. Patience is a virtue, and fantasy baseball sure puts this truth to the test. The natural reaction to an underperforming player is to ship his rotten carcass from your team as soon as possible. But don’t let a slow start sour your affection. More importantly, don’t get suckered into giving away a 2nd or 3rd rounder for 10 cents on the dollar. There’ll always be that guy in your league offering you someone like Jose Lopez for your slumping 1st-round selection. Remember that it’s a 6-month season and keep the faith in your draft picks. (That being said, anyone who wants to take David Ortiz off my hands is more than welcome. Apparently “Big Papi” is Spanish for “under the Mendoza line.”)

Big League Chew Player of the Week goes to: David Freese, Cardinals. Since April 28, Freese is 13-for-23 (.565) at the plate, with 3 HRs and 14 RBI. Hard to debate that anyone is “hotter” in baseball than “Freese” right now. Thank you, thank you, I’ll be here all week.

Spit Your Tobacco at: Javier Vasquez, Yankees. After 5 starts, Vasquez has logged 23 innings and racked up a 9.78 ERA. On the bright side, Vasquez still isn’t as despised as Carl Pavano . Yet.

That’s it for this week. Enjoy St. Louis at Philly, the Yanks invading Fenway, and the Brewers and Dodgers battling for National League inferiority. Class dismissed.

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