Kuzul

Teams that feel they are close to being championship-caliber will occasionally take the risk of trading away young talent in exchange for one year, and sometimes only two to three months, of an impact player.

While sacrificing the “future”—players with impact potential who will be under team control for several years at a team-friendly rate once they reach the majors, if they’re not there already—to give the big league team a better chance to advance to the playoffs and beyond for the current season has been known to backfire, it can also be great for business. 

And because the business is heavily based on selling tickets—mainly to baseball fans who are focused on how good the team is right now and not three to five years down the road—it’s important for a front office to be aggressive and “go all in” when they feel the time is right.

If all the pieces fall into place, the excitement surrounding the team during a heated pennant race and the capturing of a division title, as well as the anticipation of a playoff series—not to mention ticket sales for games that aren’t on the regular-season schedule—and the actual playoff run is what can win over a fan for life. 

For most of us who have loved a particular team since our youth, it’s very likely that we didn’t become passionate about a team that was losing year after year. Even if it was just one magical season, like in 1984 when the San Diego Padres won the heart of this then-nine-year-old, the excitement of that winning season is what made you want to cheer for that team from that point on. 

Regardless of the outcome, you can’t blame an organization for acting on a golden opportunity to win over thousands of new customers for life. Many have worked out great. Others, not so much. 

Here are eight of the most notable trade rentals over the past decade with an updated grade for each team involved in the deal. 

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When CC Sabathia was in his prime, dominance seemed to follow regardless how sharp his stuff was in a particular outing. Upon arriving to the New York Yankees in 2009, the perfect blend of talent and maturity accompanied the big lefty to the Bronx. 

With a 94-96 mph fastball and the wisdom of eight years of big league pitching under his belt, Sabathia dominated AL East rivals and helped the Yankees win a World Series. Like any pitcher, decline was expected to eventually arrive, but smarts and pitching acumen were poised to get Sabathia through the years when his fastball and sharp stuff no longer appeared.

Or so we thought.

On Friday night, Sabathia was cruising against the Boston Red Sox in an early-season clash of titans in baseball’s toughest division. Through five innings, Sabathia’s performance rivaled his best days as Boston couldn’t buy a run. 

Then, in a the span of an inning, it all fell apart. When Sabathia’s sixth-inning slider to Grady Sizemore missed its target, a game-winning home run ensued. With the blast, questions once again emerged around a pitcher that the Yankees owe $76 million through the end of the 2017 season. 

At this point, it’s a fool’s errand to expect Sabathia’s fastball to return to the speed it once routinely touched. From 2004-2011, Sabathia’s average fastball velocity never dipped below 92.9 mph in any season and topped 94 mph in two separate years. 

It was that velocity—coupled with great secondary stuff, command and control—that made Sabathia one of the best pitchers in baseball. From 2002-2011, spanning Sabathia’s age-21-30 seasons, he won 159 games, pitched 2,184 innings, posted a 3.44 ERA, ERA+ of 127 and was worth 47.7 WAR. 

To put those numbers into perspective, consider this: Over that 10-year span, only two pitchers—Roy Halladay and Johan Santana—were more valuable. Only two—Halladay and Mark Buehrle—pitched more innings. Only one—Javier Vazquez—struck out more batters. Among pitchers with at least 1,500 innings pitched during that time frame, only three—Halladay, Santana and Roy Oswalt—owned a better adjusted ERA.

Sabathia was dominant, partly because of his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. As his career has hit the skids, it’s that—more than just velocity or diminishing stuff—that has made him so vulnerable to the big inning and game-changing hit. 

FanGraph’s HR/FB rate has been tracking fly ball data since 2002, Sabathia’s second year in the league and the start of his dominance. On a yearly basis (with the exception of 2005), less than 10 percent of fly balls hit against Sabathia flew over the wall for home runs. 

Over the last three seasons, including a very small-sample size of three starts in 2014, that number has exploded to 12.5, 13.0 and 38.5 percent, respectively. The decline of Sabathia’s stuff has been the trigger for issues, but the damage done when the ball is hit in the air is causing everything else to become magnified in New York.

Regardless of the innings Sabathia piled up in his prime, opposing hitters rarely tagged him for an inordinate amount of home runs. From 2002-2011, Sabathia surrendered an average of 19 home runs per season. 

Since Opening Day of 2012, he’s allowed 55, including Sizemore’s blast on Friday night against the Red Sox. 

It’s likely that the Yankees have come to terms with the southpaw’s struggles, downturn in velocity and diminishing returns, but the home run rates and bad innings are becoming alarming. Despite feeling good about this pitcher for five or six innings per start, a home run usually arrives to unravel all of the solid work done. 

The remainder of the 2014 season can’t be about velocity or innings or toughness when it comes to evaluating Sabathia’s chances at resuming his role as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Instead, it has to be about his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. 

If he can limit home runs, results will follow. If he can’t, the Yankees are going to spend a frustrating summer explaining why Sabathia looks, feels and pitches fairly well, yet games end in heart-breaking fashion in the Bronx.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster breakdowns via MLB Depth Charts. 

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Here’s guessing that the New York Yankees were hoping CC Sabathia would flash better velocity in his second spring start than he did in his first spring start. 

He didn’t. And that’s bad. It’s typically a good idea not to worry about anything performance-related in spring training, but Sabathia’s velocity is an exception. In light of how it relates to past trends, the Yankees should be very worried.

But here’s a tease: Sabathia’s second spring outing was not, however, without a silver lining. 

We’ll get to that. But first, let’s continue on with the panic mode stuff by diving right into the less optimistic aspects of Sabathia’s second spring outing.

Facing the Washington Nationals, Sabathia gave up three earned runs on four hits and a pair of walks in three innings. He struck out three. 

According to Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York, the veteran lefty was honest about how he felt about his performance:

Pretty much, and we haven’t even gotten to the discouraging radar gun readings yet. Here’s Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post:

The 86-89 range is about where Sabathia was with his fastball velocity in his first spring outing on March 1 against the Philadelphia Phillies, as Mike Axisa of RiverAveBlues.com and others noted. Sabathia’s journey toward Barry Zito territory appears to be ongoing.

On that note, Axisa was proactive in asking the big question: Could such early velocity readings possibly be predictive?

When Axisa dug up the velocities that Sabathia flashed in his first televised spring outings in 2012 and 2013, he found that the answer is basically yes and no:

It’s bad that the velocity Sabathia flashed in his first spring outings in 2012 and 2013 carried over into April. It’s good, however, that he was able to add some velocity after April both years.

But then there’s the other bad: In neither case did Sabathia recapture the velocity he had the previous year. Per FanGraphs, he never got back to his 93.8 2011 average in 2012, and he never got back to his 92.3 2012 average in 2013. The 91.1 average he finished with in 2013 is easily the worst of his career.

That’s not the only career worst Sabathia produced in 2013. His 4.78 ERA was also a career worst, as was his his 85 ERA+.

To boot, key ERA estimators agree that he just wasn’t very good. His FIP of 4.10 was his worst since 2004. His SIERA of 3.88 was also his worst since 2004.

If we do some detective work, we find that a big part of Sabathia’s struggles was how much easier it was for batters to hit him hard. Batters racked up a .173 Isolated Power against Sabathia, the highest of his career.

Further detective work shows us that the decline in Sabathia’s velocity was related to this. Per Brooks Baseball, it was much easier for batters to square up Sabathia’s four-seamer (still very much his primary fastball over his sinker) in 2013:

Note: There’s data for 2007 too, but not a full season’s worth. So I chose to ignore it.

Correlation doesn’t always equal causation, but it would appear to in this case. As Sabathia’s fastball velocity has decreased, the power against it has increased.

And therein lies the chief fear of Sabathia’s spring velocity readings thus far. If the trends of the past two seasons hold, it will mean yet another decline year for Sabathia’s fastball velocity. And if his fastball velocity does decline even further, even more hard hits against it could be in order.

And let’s face it: There’s not much hope of Sabathia bucking the trend.

With his 34th birthday coming up, Sabathia is an older pitcher now. One thing we know about old pitchers is that their velocity tends to go nowhere but down. And while it may indeed be neither here nor there, it probably doesn’t help that Sabathia doesn’t have as much, ahem, heft to put behind his pitches as he used to. After slimming down last year, he’s slimmed down even more heading into 2014.

With Sabathia’s velocity unlikely to increase, the Yankees’ best hope is that his reliance on his four-seamer will decrease. If he can’t throw harder fastballs, fewer fastballs is the next-best thing.

Which brings us, finally, to the tease of a silver lining from Tuesday’s outing. In it, Sabathia showed that he might be ready to exchange a few four-seamers for a few cutters in 2014.

Sabathia has never thrown a cutter before. But Erik Boland of Newsday got everyone’s attention last week by reporting that Sabathia is ready to throw one and that he’s been learning one from none other than Andy Pettitte. He broke it out for the first time in a simulated game last Thursday.

“He (Pettitte) was showing me a grip with the cutter,” said Sabathia. “I used it today and it worked pretty good, so I’m anxious to take it into a game.”

He did just that on Tuesday.

Here’s Mike Axisa:

And Delia Enriquez of BronxBaseballDaily.com:

Yours truly was also on cutter watch. But while it was hard to tell cutters apart from flat sliders and simple four-seamers, it seemed to me that Sabathia was indeed often going to his new toy on Tuesday. 

That’s about as much as I can say about it, though. Because it was hard to tell what were cutters and what weren’t, it’s hard to narrow down the velocity of Sabathia’s cutter. Nor could I get a solid read on its movement, as TV camera angles make it tough to deduce the movement of lefty fastballs of all kinds.

But for what it’s worth, Enriquez‘s comparison of Sabathia’s cutter to Pettitte’s cutter seems fair enough. FanGraphs says Pettitte threw his cutter at 83.2 miles per hour in 2013, and that’s about where Sabathia’s cutter is likely to sit if his four-seamer is maxing out at 88. And just like Pettitte could with his, Sabathia’s cutter looks like it has the potential to be a pitch he can use to jam right-handed batters.

Sabathia should definitely be interested in doing that. Per Brooks Baseball, righty batters had a .209 ISO against Sabathia’s weakened four-seamer in 2013, their best ever against it. It would be good if Sabathia took to mixing up his four-seamer and cutter against right-handed batters in 2014.

You know, sort of like Pettitte did in 2013 to solid results. From Brooks Baseball:

Pettitte didn’t split his four-seamer and cutter usage against righties evenly in 2012, throwing the former about twice as often as the latter. That didn’t work out so well, as righties hit .330 against his four-seamer with a .121 ISO. And while they did have a .193 ISO against his cutter, they only hit it .140 against it.

Obviously, switching things up in 2013 worked pretty well. Righties still hit Pettitte’s four-seamer well, but they continued to struggle against his cutter while also seeing them at a much higher rate.

If Sabathia copy cats Pettitte’s aggressiveness with his new cutter against right-handed batters, it’s possible that he’ll be able to avoid being crushed by right-handed batters like he was in 2013. Maybe his overall numbers won’t get better, but that would certainly help keep them from getting worse.

For now, all we can say is “Maybe.” Because it’s only spring training and Sabathia has been throwing his new cutter for all of one week, making promises about its potential would be a decidedly silly endeavor.

We can say this much, though: The Yankees had better hope that Sabathia’s new cutter can be a weapon for him this year. Because if it’s not, he’ll be back to proving that he can get by with diminished velocity on the pitches he already has in his arsenal.

He couldn’t do that in 2013. He very likely wouldn’t be able to do it in 2014 either.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked. 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Entering the official start of spring training 2014, one thing is clear: the New York Yankees are Major League Baseball’s most talked about team.

The newest edition of spring training in Tampa Bay for the Yankees took on an entirely different feel when Derek Jeter announced his upcoming retirement back on February 12th. The face of the sport (no offense, Eric Sogard) will arguably be the story of the season as the most recent era in team history comes to a close. Let’s just hope the Jeter Farewell Tour comes with better gifts than the Mariano Rivera one did (really, Texas Rangers? Cowboy boots for a guy from Panama?)

However, the truly most important story lines for the Bombers in spring training are to see what they can expect to yield from their off-season spending spree and how a roster with a surprisingly high number of question marks despite the payroll comes together.  

Can the trio of Jeter/Mark Teixeira/CC Sabathia bounce back from rough 2013? Can Jacoby Ellsbury stay healthy? What exactly can we expect from Masahiro Tanaka? Does David Robertson really have what it takes to replace Mariano Rivera? There’s only one place that has all these answers: Twitter. 

To make the playoffs this year, the Yankees will most likely need to build on last year’s 85-win campaign. That total might sound easy to build off considering the winter’s price tag, but as Ken Davidoff of the New York Post tweets, maybe the Yankees weren’t actually that good. 

A 79-win caliber team minus that team’s best player, one Robinson Cano? Sounds like a tough task to overcome for Joe Girardi. That’s why the quartet of Carlos Beltran, Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Tanaka could make or break the year for New York.

However, all four of those signees come with question marks (at this point, the question mark might as well be the team’s logo this year). We don’t know how Tanaka‘s stuff will translate. Ellsbury‘s games played per year have as been inconsistent as anyone in the league over the course of his career. Beltran is not exactly a spring chicken. McCann is probably the surest bet of the bunch, but even he is beginning 2014 on the wrong side of 30.

One of Ellsbury‘s former managers thinks that success will follow, as long as he stays on the field.

McCann is expected to be a staple in a Yankee lineup that could very well be formidable. Even if McCann has a “down year,” it would be almost impossible for his season to qualify as a positional downgrade from 2013, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch points out.

When Tanaka signed, there were two numbers that stood out: a 24-0 record last year in Japan, and a $155 million contract. Critics of the deal have theorized that Tanaka‘s performance won’t match the payday, but Sports on Earth’s Jonathan Bernhardt says even if he’s not great, it’ll be okay for New York.

“If it turns out that New York paid superstar money for a pitcher who is merely very good, fine; the Yankees are a license to print money, and young pitchers who are “merely very good” don’t grow on trees.”

One player who is no lock to make the Opening Day roster, but could make a difference is the enigma known as Michael Pineda. It’s been two full years since we last saw the right-hander in a Major League game, but ESPN’s Buster Olney says there is reason to be optimistic. 

There’s been much talk about Jeter’s last year and what it means for the franchise in the long-term, but in the short-run, no one really knows what to expect from the captain. 

Before his spring training debut on February 27th, Brian Cashman made it clear that on his list of concerns, Jeter is no where near the top, according to Newsday’s David Lennon.

In case you hadn’t heard, Rivera is no longer active. In his place is Robertson, a very good reliever in his own right, but someone who has little experience ending games in big spots. That won’t stop Robertson from thinking he can pitch at an elite level, according to ESPN’s Ian O’Connor.

There’s no doubt the Yankees have upgraded since the end of last season. However, they have some ground to make up in the division. The Red Sox are the reigning World Champions, the Rays have one of the best rotations in all of the league, and the Orioles made some moves late in the off-season to bolster their roster.

The most important Yankee might very well be Teixeira. The Yankees’ infield could potentially be a trainwreck, but if Teixeira can somehow re-create his first three years in the Bronx this year, that could theoretically change the entire lineup. 

Jeter’s last year will be a season-long parade of honors and accolades, but a 39-year-old who might as well not have played in 2013 with a severe ankle injury is as big of a question mark as it comes. It would be very Jeter of Jeter to hit .320 this year, but somewhere in the .280 range is more realistic, if not maybe a best-case scenario for New York. 

Sabathia made news in the off-season for his weight loss, but his season will ultimately come down to another type of loss: velocity. 2013 was arguably the worst season of Sabathia’s career, but he’ll still take the mound April 1st when the Yankees open their season in Houston. His development in spring training could be the most important thing for Girardi & Co. as the team tries to avoid a second straight postseason-less year. 

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Despite missing out on the postseason last October, the New York Yankees enter spring training as the biggest story in Major League Baseball.

Yes, the Red Sox won the World Series, the Dodgers carry a $200 million payroll and the Nationals are poised to win big in 2014. But, while compelling, none of their spring training venues can come close to matching the kind of drama and media attention that will surface in Tampa, Fla. at Steinbrenner Field.

Over a four-month span, the Yankees lost Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez, and added Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Masahiro Tanaka. As if that wasn’t enough of a whirlwind, Derek Jeter announced that 2014 would be his final season.

For most teams, the first day of spring training is boring. For the New York Yankees, it’s must-see television.

Here’s a recap of the first day of Yankees spring training.

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New York Yankees pitcher CC Sabathia has long held an image as one of the rounder players in Major League Baseball. That appears to have changed, as Sabathia’s wife Amber posted a photo of the ace lefty at a wedding over the weekend looking positively slim.

He denies that he has lost weight, instead saying that an offseason of intense training has helped bring tone to his physique. Per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports (h/t Mike Axisa of CBS Sports), Sabathia says: 

I’m actually the same weight as I was last year, just a little more toned and a lot more strong. This is the first offseason I was able to weight-train and get stronger and not worry about weight loss.

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The New York Yankees will have a very different look to their offense this season.  

With the key additions of Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran in the offseason, this team has promise again.  

Here is a look at the most crucial players for the Yankees going into the 2014 season.  

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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For every Josh Donaldson or Matt Carpenter, there’s an Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Even as comparatively predictable as baseball is to other sports, perfectly projecting all of the breakouts and disappointments is too tall of an order for even the savviest of sabermetricians. 

And that’s why the opposite ends of the production spectrum either dread or relish “next season.”

Take Matt Kemp, for instance. After almost winning the 2011 NL MVP Award and posting a park-adjusted 147 OPS+ in 2012, Kemp was a gimpy dud this past season. In fact, his 105 OPS+ and 263 plate appearances were his worst showings since his rookie year. Needless to say, Kemp is eager for the 2014 season to arrive.

Read on to see the rest of MLB players who are thrilled or devastated to see 2013 end.

All statistics sourced from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com.

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Robinson Cano‘s ten-year, $240 million deal with the Seattle Mariners, which was first reported by Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes (spanish link) earlier in the day, ties him with Albert Pujols for the third-highest contract ever handed out to a major league player—Alex Rodriguez holds the record for the first two spots. 

While there are plenty of examples of players putting up elite numbers into their late-30’s, it’s still a significant risk for the M’s because of the likelihood that they’ll be paying Cano top dollar for at least a few seasons when he’ll no longer be in his prime.

For every David Ortiz, who had a .959 OPS with 30 homers at the age of 37, there are several formerly great players who were out of the game by their early-to-mid 30’s because their skills had diminished to a point where they could no longer produce league average numbers. 

Contracts of this magnitude, years and dollars-wise, are still relatively new with the contract of Derek Jeter the only one amongst the top ten highest of all time that has expired. Therefore, it’s hard to point at any and declare Cano’s deal as a huge mistake by the Mariners.

But for what the players on this “10 Richest Contracts In MLB History” list have done on the field thus far and where they appear headed over the course of their deals, it’s not too early to pass judgment and place a grade on their impact. 

Each of the 10 slides contains contract details, average WAR per season over the course of the deal, a summary on the player’s impact and/or potential impact in the future and a letter grade.

The player’s contract, according to Baseball Prospectus, is listed. The player’s average WAR (wins above replacement) per season, according to Baseball-Reference, is also listed. 

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It looks like CC Sabathia is back.

And this time, it might actually be for real. No funny stuff.

Sabathia turned in his best start in weeks on Friday night against a Boston Red Sox club that gave him fits back on Opening Day. The New York Yankees‘ high-priced southpaw went seven and one-third inning and allowed one run on six hits. He struck out 10 and walked none, leading the Bombers to a 4-1 win.

The timing couldn’t have been any better. The Yankees sorely needed both a win and a gem from their ace after dropping four straight to the New York Mets and five overall. Some downtrodden Yankees fan must have knelt down in front of an R2 unit and recorded a message imploring Sabathia to help, because he was the Yanks’ only hope.

If so, well, he got it.

The usual caveats apply: just one start, small sample size and all that jazz. And we have indeed seen Sabathia show flashes of his old self before this season. He racked up 10 strikeouts in a start just a couple of weeks ago against the Seattle Mariners, and he also had that two-start stretch in April in which he allowed one earned run in 15 innings.

So what makes this latest triumph different? 

The opponent counts for something. Sabathia thoroughly owned a Red Sox team that came into the game with a .745 OPS against left-handed starters. Per Baseball-Reference.com, that was good for 11th in the majors.

No, the Red Sox didn’t have their best lineup on the field, but it’s not like Sabathia was cruising because Boston hitters were helping him out. With the kind of stuff Sabathia was featuring, he could have carved up anybody.

It was easy to notice the velocity. There were times when Sabathia was getting the ball over the plate in his usual 89 to 91 range, but there were a few 93s and even a couple of 94s. 

BrooksBaseball.net has Sabathia’s average fastball velocity this season down at 90.85 miles per hour. The raw data from his start on Friday night said he was averaging 92.58 miles per hour against Boston.

That’s nearly a two mph increase, and it looks pretty good in light of the fact that Sabathia was averaging 91.9 miles per hour last time out against the Tampa Bay Rays. It would appear that some zip is creeping back into his arm.

Andy McCollough of The Star-Ledger might have the explanation for why:

It was that kind of night at the Stadium. ESPN.com has the official temperature at 86 degrees, which is pretty toasty for a night game. If that helped Sabathia get looser than he’s been able to get all season, then the Yankees have a reason to feel optimistic.

Saturday is the first day of June, after all, and sources say the weather tends to get warm and stay warm in June.

I’m also wondering if the warm weather played a role in the success Sabathia had with his slider on Friday night. He picked up seven of his 15 swinging strikes on it and, according to Jack Curry of the YES Network, the bulk of his 10 strikeouts:

Want to know how many whiffs Sabathia got on his slider in his start against the Red Sox on Opening Day? Try zero.

Sabathia harnessing the power of his typically devastating slider again is at least as important as him finding some extra velocity. While everyone’s been freaking out about Sabathia’s velocity this year, his slider had been an issue for him as well.

Per Brooks Baseball, Sabathia’s slider boasts a whiff rate of 18.52 percent since 2007. In 2013, the whiff rate on it has been 15.77 percent. Opponents had been hitting it at a .225 clip this season, up from a .166 clip since 2007.

This all helps explain why Sabathia’s wSL/C—that being the number of runs above average Sabathia has saved with his slider for every 100 he’s thrown—is down to 0.93 this season, according to FanGraphs. His career mark is 1.99.

Now, Sabathia’s obviously a much more complete pitcher currently than he was earlier in his career. But at heart, he’s still primarily a fastball/slider pitcher. The lackluster numbers stem in large part from the fact that both pitches have been missing for him this season.

Up until Friday night, that is. I can’t claim to have watched every single pitch Sabathia has thrown this season, but the stuff he was showing off against the Red Sox definitely passed the eye test. He looked more like his old self than he had all season.

Yes, it’s just one start. And no, they’re not all going to be this good from here on out.

But there should be more good ones than there have been. Caveats be damned, it looks like Sabathia is back.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter. 

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