Kuzul

With the Atlanta Braves coming into Philadelphia this week for a three-game series, the Phillies couldn’t have it set up any better.

On Monday evening the Phillies had a three-game lead over the Braves in the National League East and still had three games at Atlanta remaining on the schedule.

If Philadelphia wanted to lock up the N.L. East crown, this series would go a long way towards popping the champagne.

And that’s precisely why manager Charlie Manuel had his best three guys ready to take the mound.

Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt were all scheduled to face the Braves.

One quick sweep later and the Phillies can breathe easy with a six-game lead. Meanwhile, the Braves cling to a half-game lead over the San Francisco Giants in the Wild Card race.

A month ago Atlanta looked like they were in control of the division. A Hollywood ending was unfolding: a division title and playoff run in Bobby Cox’s final season as the manager of the Braves.

Except too many people discounted the ability and experience of the Phillies, if that’s even possible to do with a team that has represented the N.L. in the last two World Series, winning one of them.

Fast-forward and the Phillies have run off 10 straight wins and sit days away from clinching a playoff berth.

With Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt all doing their part to anchor a rotation that has quickly become the best in baseball, the Phillies have become favorite picks to reach the World Series again this fall and perhaps win their second title in three years.

As a preview to October and a hat tip to those predicting the Phillies will win it all, we look at six of the most important Phillies who will determine whether or not the city is crowned champions in 2010.

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The first head-to-head, “for all the marbles” meeting between these two teams, came in 1915 when the surprising, Philadelphia Phillies, jumped from sixth to first in one year to lead the race for the National League Pennant.

That year, Philadelphia produced the NL’s best offense, in-part to career years from outfielder, Gavvy Cravath and first baseman Fred Luderus.

Pete Alexander’s 31-10 record and league-low 1.22 ERA led the league’s best pitching staff, rounded out by 21-game winner Erskine Mayer, Al Demaree, and Eppa Rixey, to a team ERA of 2.17.

The Phillies started that 1915 season 8-0 right out of the gates, taking over first place, a position they would, ultimately, hold for some 100 days that season.

Like the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies, the 1915 Phils lost first place in late May—May 29, to be exact. 

They didn’t regain their lead back until some 41 games later, thanks to a three game sweep of Rogers Hornsby and the St. Louis Cardinals.

Heading into August 13, 1915, the Boston Braves were making a strong campaign for first place in the National League. They trailed the first place Philadelphia Phillies by three games, and had a record of 6-9 against the Phils that season.

The series turned out to be a bust, as the Braves were swept being outscored 19-3.

Despite the hammering from the Phils, that didn’t shut the resilient Braves down, at all.

Playing in a brand-new Braves Field, Boston put on a 26-12 late-season drive leading into another three-game set with the Phillies, but they could only come up with a final record of 83-69—seven games back of the Phillies.

The two series down the stretch proved to be key for the Braves that year, allowing the Phillies win their first head to head race with the Braves.

Monday, September 20, 2010 was a night both fan bases have been looking forward to at one time or another.

The Atlanta Braves took a 7-5 head-to-head record into tonight three games back, looking to begin their run towards the top of the division once again after losing their number one spot, ironically, to the 2010 St. Louis Cardinals.

This game had every bit of that playoff feeling. Towels were waving, fans were screaming, and the stadium lights hung in the foreground of the evening back drop.

With Jair Jurrjens tweaking his knee last Friday during a bullpen session, the Braves called on rookie Brandon Beachy to open this all-important Game 1.

The Braves came out strong swinging their bats in effort to intimidate Cole Hamels.

All of the key batters, for the Braves, got into the mix early, with Jason Heyward getting on base, and Derrick Lee and Brian McCann doubling to help Beachy take the early 1-0 lead.

Cole Hamels, who had dominated the Braves this season, had to fight his way out of a, no-out jam, with runners on first and third, but he fought through the inning only sacrificing one run.

The Phils responded right away in the bottom of the second with a score off of a Carlos Ruiz double to shallow left sending Ryan Howard home.

At that point, it felt like this would be a dog fight.

In the bottom of the fifth inning a key error by rookie Jason Heyward moved Shane Victorino to third which allowed him to eventually come home making the score 2-1 Phillies.

After a few difficulties, Bobby Cox decided to replace his young pitcher with Eric O’Flaherty, but the news didn’t get any better after.

O’Flaherty loaded the bases on two consecutive walks with one out, allowing Raul Ibanez to advance the runners and score Utley on a ground out to short stop—making the score 3-1.

Despite runners being on base for the whole bottom of the inning, the Braves managed to pull through only allowing two runs. Peter Moyland replaced O’Flaherty to Strike out Ruiz.

Hamels started hitting a stride, buzzing through Braves as he had earlier in the season. Through seven innings he had, six K’s, and only allowed one earned run.

In the eighth inning, despite Hamels being in dominant stride, Manuel decided to pinch hit for Hamels, and rely on his guy, Brad Lidge, in the ninth.

Within a matter of minutes, despite the nervous energy in the stadium, Lidge tore a hole through the heart of Atlanta’s batting order, taking the first game in the much anticipated series.

With the win, the Phillies move their winning streak to eight games; 12 wins in the last thirteen games. The Phils now drop their magic number to eight more wins to secure a playoff berth, and they increase their lead in the NL East to four games ahead.

The second game will be held Tomorrow night, when they send their ace Roy Halladay to the mound. Same place same time, as the Phillies chase the same result they got 95 years ago in their first race with the Bravos.

Happy September baseball fans!

For more writing from Vincent Heck visit: www.vincentheckwriting.com

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The Atlanta Braves come to town this week for a three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies currently have a three-game lead in the NL East over the Braves, and the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies surging out west, the Braves may very well be playing for their post-season lives.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect from this showdown.

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Much can be said about a team that makes things happen amidst a pennant race, and a lot can be said about those who don’t. What can we say about the difference between the Philadelphia Phillies and their competition? Well, there are still 15 games left to be played out.

The Phils, nonetheless, look just the way they are supposed to: defeating a pesky team, in the Florida Marlins for the second night in a row. Meanwhile, 650 miles down I-95 the Atlanta Braves, who have been hanging on to the hopes of grabbing first place to gain the home field advantage in the postseason, lost 6-0 to the MLB‘s version of the Detroit Lions in the heat of a pennant race—at home.

While these games can certainly be negated in the head-to-head matchup, this past Tuesday night could prove to be the turning point in how this race plays out.

The Phillies have now, with this win over the Florida Marlins in Miami, taken a two game lead in the National League East and appear poised to pull away with an old-fashioned pennant race-like victory.

Tuesday night’s victory wasn’t just a victory, it came with very positive signs for Philadelphia including:

• Thirteen of the 22 outs Cole Hamels recorded were strikeouts, the most any Phillies pitcher has had in 2010.
• Brad Lidge saved the one-run victory with a 16-pitch, 1-2-3 ninth inning.
• Hamels’ 1.79 ERA in 12 starts is tops in the league.

And to cap it off, Hamels and Roy Halladay are tied for second in the NL for strikeouts this season.

It’s all setting up to meet the inevitable conclusion, a third straight NL pennant flag hanging up at the bank in 2011.

This would be the first time the Phillies have ended the regular season with the leading record in the NL since 1950, when they finished two games ahead of the Brooklyn Dodgers.

The Phillies are demonstrating, without Jimmy Rollins, that their biggest attribute isn’t within the roster. It isn’t within the big numbers either, nor is it within the accolades that accompany those things. Rather, it’s the huge muscle that resides underneath their rib cage.

Definitely something that the Braves possess also, but in the heat of a pennant race, you almost always have to stick with the group who have been through the fire and know how to get there.

It’s the same difference as, if you needed to get to Anchorage, Alaska would you trust a young, talented, geography teacher or a geography teacher who has been there twice in the last two summers?

While, you may trust both, to a degree, you almost always have to take the experience.

The Braves are only a game up on the San Francisco Giants and are better suited, at this point, holding off the Giants until they get the opportunity to go head-to-head against the two-time National League champion, Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies move on to play the Washington Nationals in a weekend series at home, while the fading Atlanta Braves head to New York to take on the New York Mets before the two square off in the first of two series that have major playoff implications.

More coverage is to follow tomorrow. We’ll put a finger on the pulse of both teams.

The Braves have a lot of work to do.  My guess is, they better find a defibrillator quick, because losing to the Nats twice, in a situation such as this, is close to flat lining.

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The Philadelphia Phillies obstacle course of a season currently finds them one game up in the National League Eastern Division. The club’s 2010 campaign has been akin to a season of The Amazing Race in terms of duration, complexity, and challenge. 

An ongoing spate of injuries has kept the National League’s best team on paper at less than full strength all season long. Key players revolved on the disabled list and often when back on the field, found themselves still compromised by inactivity and less than full physical function. 

The team’s fortunes had taken such a nose dive that many were debating whether the Phillies should be “buyers” or “sellers” in the annual July swap meet. Some argued that it was time to concede to the injuries and team’s diminished record, write the season off, and look towards next season. 

To the Phillies players’, coaches’, and entire organization’s credit— that did not happen. Everyone maintained a sense of calm, found a way to stay afloat, and even threw in a bold trade to acquire another marquee pitcher. 

The payoff has been a slow, steady climb back to the top spot in the NL East after spending almost three months looking up at the Atlanta Braves. But just as the team was making the swap in standings, a few more warning flares appeared. 

First, Brad Lidge’s balky elbow caused the team to shut him down for a few days. Although he is just months removed from surgery to clean it up, both Lidge and the team remain optimistic that it is only a minor ailment that will not derail the Phillies closer. 

Lidge has been a key cog in the team’s resurgence and is being counted on as an important element for the team’s success. Since an ugly blown save against the Washington Nationals in late August, Lidge has done his best work since the 2008 World Series run. 

Next, Gold Glove shortstop and team heartbeat Jimmy Rollins pulled up lame running the bases. Two previous stints on the DL already this season with a calf injury caused manager Charlie Manuel to immediately sit him down and is now listed as day-to-day. 

The injury was indicated to be a hamstring strain. Both player and team remain optimistic that a short rest will nip the problem in the bud. 

Other players such as Ryan Howard, Placido Polanco, and Chase Utley may not be 100 percent over the balance of the year, but that is the reality of the marathon that is Major League Baseball. 

Continuing brushes with the injury bug highlight that a successful conclusion to the season is not all within the team’s control. And, surely the other team’s fighting for a postseason berth are not going to fade away easily. 

The Braves lead baseball in comeback and walk-off wins. 

The San Francisco Giants have the pitching and a bolstered offense to maintain their charge. 

After a recent tailspin, the San Diego Padres are showing signs of a rebound. Strong pitching had produced the best record in the NL before their 10-game losing streak, and surely is capable of producing many wins down the stretch. 

The Colorado Rockies have launched their annual September surge. They are playing with the same strong sense of confidence that has propelled them past other teams in recent years when the games became more urgent.  

Despite the keen competition, the Phillies are well positioned and poised to make another run to glory. 

The Phillies offense has started to heat up as the original starting cast now populates the lineup and returning players continue to find their groove. Hitting can be contagious and Howard appears to have his normal September offensive bug. 

With an effective Lidge, a rested and sharp Ryan Madson, and an overall good supporting cast, the bullpen has moved from weakness to strength. 

And, importantly, the starting staff  is imposing— at least three out of five days. 

Joe Blanton brought back memories of Adam Eaton through July, but has been 6-1 with a 3.37 ERA since. The remaining schedule may allow the team to bypass inconsistent fifth starter Kyle Kendrick. 

The biggest source of optimism for the pennant stretch and postseason, should they advance, derives from the fact that Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt can out-duel anyone. 

Surely the games need to be won on the field, and a one game lead and a pack of hungry teams in pursuit of the playoffs will keep the heat on— but this Phillies team has the elements to win it all. 

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On July 31st, Brad Lidge blew yet another save for the Philadelphia Phillies.

The three-run bomb by Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman was Lidge’s fourth blown save of the season, and for many fans, it was the last straw.

Yet again, talk radio and the blogosphere was flooded with fans screaming that Lidge should be moved out of the closer’s role, possibly in favor of set-up man Ryan Madson.

Manager Charlie Manuel refused to consider such a move. And over the last three weeks, something interesting happened.

Lidge started looking good. Really good.

In fact, Lidge has went seven-for-seven in save opportunities in the month of August, and has yet to give up a run.

So is this rebound a small sample size-induced mirage, or has Lidge finally figured it out? Is he back to being the same “lights out” closer of 2008?

The hard truth is that Lidge will never fully return to the heights of 2008. But yes, it does appear Lidge has worked past his issues, and is back to being a solid closer.

The “Perfect” Season Revisited

In 2008, Brad Lidge was perfect.  In 48 chances, he did not blow one save, and was about as valuable as a closer not named Mariano Rivera can be. Lidge was undeniably fantastic.

He was also a bit lucky.

During the 2008 season, only 3.8 percent of Lidge’s fly balls left the yard. The league average is around 10 percent, but due to small sample size and matchups, elite relievers do often beat that average.

However, Lidge’s career HR/FB ratio is 11.0 percent.

As a result, it seems likely that his 2008 percentage was an anomaly. He should not be expected to ever reach that level of home run prevention ever again in his career.

Therefore, fans waiting for a return of the perfect closer will continue to be frustrated.

Back to 2008 Levels?

By all statistical measures, Lidge had an awful 2009 season. His strikeout rate dropped to its lowest of level of his career, as he racked up a 9.36 K/9 rate.  That was down from his 2008 rate of 11.94.

In addition, Lidge walked more batters. His 5.22 BB/9 was also a career high.

And his home run rate, while abnormally low in 2008, went through the roof in 2009. His 1.69 HR/9 rate was yet another career high.

After a poor start to the 2010 season, many observers dealt with “deja vu.” Lidge’s struggles seemed to be a carbon copy of 2009.

Therefore, it may be a surprise to learn that Lidge’s strikeout and walk rates in 2010 are almost identical to his 2008 numbers.

2008 Lidge: 11.94 K/9, 4.54 BB/9

2010 Lidge: 11.12 K/9, 4.45 BB/9

His elevated 2010 ERA in comparison to 2008 is purely a result of his home run rate. While in 2008, his 3.8 percent HR/FB rate was lucky, this year, Lidge has been a bit unlucky. His 15.2 percent HR/FB rate is even higher than last year, and considering his improvements in strikeouts and control, is probably just bad luck.

But Lidge appears to have his stuff back. His control has never been stellar, but he has returned to his career averages, which is a fantastic sign.

August Success

But has Lidge actually turned the corner? Will he sustain his improvements in strikeout rate and walk rate, or should fans still be concerned of a regression back to 2009 Lidge?

The most promising sign that the new reliable Lidge is here to stay comes in his newfound August aversion to the free pass.

In eight August appearances, Lidge has not walked one batter. He is pounding the strike zone and getting batters to chase when he throws outside the zone.

This run is his longest streak of consecutive appearances without a walk since 2008, when Lidge went 10 appearances between April 21 and May 9 without issuing a free pass.

August has not been a fluke. It’s much easier to finish a game in the ninth when the closer is not giving anyone a free trot to first base.

Conclusion

Phillies fans have seen the best of Lidge (2008), and the worst of Lidge (2009).

This has sadly resulted in a tendency to be reactionary when it comes to Lidge. When he strings together a few strong appearances, “Lights Out” is back. 

But when he blows a save, the “Madson for closer” brigade comes out in full force.

The fact is, all closers blow saves sometimes. Lidge is no different.

But his improvements in his peripheral statistics should help Lidge limit those occurrences going forward.

The 2008 Lidge will never come back. But the embattled closer has returned to reliability.

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Over the next week or two I will be taking a division-by-division look at every team’s closer situation.  Who is closing now?  Who is next in line?  Who could get a look down the line?  Let’s kick things off with the NL East:

Atlanta Braves
Closer – Billy Wagner
Waiting in the Wings in 2010 – Takashi Saito
Closer of the Future – Craig Kimbrel

There’s no controversy here, as Wagner has been dominant all season long.  Not only is he sporting a miniscule 1.74 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, but he’s posted 72 strikeouts over 51.2 innings.  Saito will get an opportunity now and then, when Wagner needs a rest, but that’s about it. 

Given the age of both Wagner and Saito, Kimbrel is an integral part of the Braves’ future bullpen.  He has been dominant at Triple-A (1.50 ERA, 68 K over 48.0 innings) and in a brief stint in the Major Leagues (1.08 ERA, 15 K over 8.1 innings) this season.  Control could be an issue, but his pure stuff certainly portrays closer ability.

Florida Marlins
Closer – Leo Nunez
Waiting in the Wings in 2010 – Clay Hensley
Closer of the Future – Alejandro Ramos?

Nunez gave up four earned runs over three innings in his first three outings of August, but has been clean for his last three outings (allowing just one walk over three innings) prior to last night.  If Nunez struggles again, Hensley could get a look, but at 30-years old, he’s not likely a long-term solution. 

The fact is, the Marlins don’t have a clear-cut closer of the future.  Single-A closer Alejandro Ramos has posted 26 saves with a 3.83 ERA and 75 Ks over 56.1 innings, but he turns 24 in September, clearly pitching against younger competition.  It’s certainly more likely that they look outside of the organization for a 2011 replacement.

New York Mets
Closer – Hisanori Takahashi
Waiting in the Wings – Bobby Parnell
Closer of the Future – Bobby Parnell

It’s quite the void that Francisco Rodriguez and his off-the-field antics have created at the back end of the Mets bullpen.  While Takahashi is currently getting the chance, all signs point to Parnell potentially being a long-term solution for the Mets. 

With K-Rod’s future unknown, look for Parnell, who reportedly was clocked at over 100 mph on the gun last night, to get a look.  He’s well worth stashing, just in case.  Chances are Rodriguez will be back in 2011, but at this point anything is possible.

Philadelphia Phillies
Closer – Brad Lidge
Waiting in the Wings – Ryan Madson
Closer of the Future – Ryan Madson

Brad Lidge is not the closer he once was, but the Phillies continue to lean on him.  He’s pitched just 27.1 innings, with a 4.28 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.  Madson is perennially the second in line, when healthy, though both he and Lidge have been on the DL at times this season. 

While he has not always been lights-out when given the chance to close games, Madson has been good, overall, for four years running now.  At 29-years old, it is safe to think that he could be the solution, if given the chance.

Washington Nationals
Closer – Drew Storen
Waiting in the Wings – Tyler Clippard
Closer of the Future – Drew Storen

The deadline deal of Matt Capps allowed the Nationals to get a look at their future closer today.  Drafted in the first round of the 2009 draft, he has been solid thus far.  He’s had one bad outing in August, but he has posted a 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in six appearances (seven innings).  He’s the long-term solution, so take your shot with him.

What are your thoughts on these situations?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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Last Thursday night, in the midst of the Philadelphia Phillies’ comeback against Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Jonathan Broxton, Dodger manager Joe Torre came to the mound to speak with his closer.

Television cameras picked up what Torre was mouthing to Broxton. Simply put, Torre asked, “Do you trust your stuff?”

Minutes later, meltdown completed and Phillies victory in the bag, Broxton sulked from the mound. The Dodgers had just lost a seven run lead with two innings to play.

Unfortunately, it’s a feeling that fans of many teams go through during a season. When the man known as the “closer” doesn’t close, it’s ugly.

It’s a feeling many Phillies fans have experienced over the past two seasons with Brad Lidge.

Often times, there have probably been people yelling at their own television sets to Lidge, screaming, along with a few obscenities mixed in, “Do you trust your stuff?”

For Lidge, 2009 was an unmitigated disaster. Mark McGwire would be proud to know we won’t be talking about the past in this article.

This is about the present, and the final month and a half of the 2010 baseball season.

While the Phillies will likely get Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back in the lineup this week, and while quality starting pitching is paramount, many teams only go as far as their bullpen allows. The Phillies experienced that first hand in 2008 when Lidge delivered perfection, 48 saves in 48 opportunities including the postseason.

Since then, things for Lidge have not gone as smoothly. As recently as two weeks ago, plenty questioned Phillies manager Charlie Manuel’s decision to continue trotting Lidge out there in save situations.

On July 31, Lidge allowed a three-run walk off home run to Ryan Zimmerman as the Nationals stole a 7-5 victory from the Phillies. Suffice to say, that sinking Groundhog Day feeling was there again.

These days, with all the advancements in baseball statistics and data tracking, few things are more impressive than the PitchFX tool available on numerous websites. A few clicks here and there and you’ve got yourself a bunch of data about what a pitcher threw, where he threw it, what kind of break the pitch had, and so on.

A look at the chart from that fateful night in Washington D.C. paints a sad picture for Lidge, pitches scattered every which way around the strike zone. The end result looks like target practice if you gave someone a gun for the first time and then blindfolded them.

That night finished off an ugly July for Lidge, one in which he blew two saves, posted an ERA of 6.00, and walked ten while striking out ten. It also finished off a July in which Lidge threw 89 fastballs and 87 sliders. 

Everyone knows the slider is Lidge’s best pitch. When Lidge is on, it’s usually because his slider is on.

August has been a different story for Lidge.

Thus far, in his seven August appearances, Lidge has thrown the slider 55 times and the fastball 27 times, an astounding 67.1 percent of his deliveries resulting in his nasty breaking ball.

In his August 11 appearance against the Dodgers, which looked like Lidge’s best outing of the year, he threw eleven pitches. Nine of them were sliders. The end result was an easy-as-pie 9th inning and Lidge’s 15th save of the season. He has since added one more.

In August alone, Lidge has struck out seven and walked none, racking up six saves.

Does Lidge’s performance hinge on the success of the slider?

Last year, Lidge’s worst season of his career, he threw the fastball just over 50 percent of the time. In 2008’s perfect season, it was just 43.4 percent of the time. This year, he has thrown the fastball 41.6 percent of the time, which would be the lowest mark of his career if it holds through the end of the year. 

As Lidge gets older, he must also become wiser. He does not have the same velocity he used to have on his fastball. Indeed, the numbers show he has averaged 92.2 MPH on his fastball this season, down from an average of 95.4 MPH just three seasons ago.

Through natural wear and tear, a few nicks here and there, and age, he just can’t get the fastball to the same velocity as he used to.

However, the slider is Lidge’s great equalizer. He is still an above-average strikeout pitcher, posting an 11.2 K/9 rate this season. Control has been a problem for Lidge. Maybe it was all in the over-use of the fastball which he had trouble locating. 

Now, as the pennant race heats up, the Phillies must hope that Lidge can deliver down the stretch.

It’s not 2008.

He won’t be perfect this year.

However, a large part of the Phillies’ success in September (and hopefully October) hinges on their closer.

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Let’s face it, we’ve all had those moments during the 2010 Phillies season.

Charlie Manuel casually strolls to the mound, head down, and then signals to the bullpen to send some relief for his reliever.

As we watch another bullpen arm head for the dugout, we reiterate that nobody in the Phillies front office listened to our concerns about relief pitching at the trade deadline and beyond.

The most recent of those “Do they still make Rolaids?“ moments came during Tuesday’s night’s debacle against the Dodgers. The Phillies were in the midst of one of those drubbings that happen only a few times each major league season (or more than a few if you’re the Pirates, Royals, or Orioles).

On that night, nothing positive was delivered by any Phillie who toed the rubber, and consequently nothing positive came from the reactions of people who follow the team and plan on watching baseball around Halloween.

Wednesday’s sports radio and message board discussions repeatedly pointed out that the 2.5 Million Dollar Man (Danys Baez) and Mr. Rule 5 (David Herndon) are awful. This assessment usually transitioned to the one in which everyone identified J.C. Romero as a complete disaster, Ryan Madsen as maddeningly inconsistent, and Brad Lidge as washed up.

Not many of the above evaluations would land anyone an analyst’s job with the MLB Network. Just about everyone’s belief is that the Phillies’ offense will get healthy in time to overtake the Braves. Their starting pitching will make the Phillies a threat in any postseason series. Then, if their bullpen appears in the playoffs as presently constructed, it will be the team’s undoing.

To be sure, the Phillies bullpen is not very good as playoff contenders go. They are currently ranked tenth in the National League and are the worst of all of the NL playoff contenders (and the second worst of all MLB playoff contenders, ahead of only the Angels).

What everyone fails to acknowledge is that the Phillies 2010 pitching situation may be just as good if not better than that of the 2009 Phillies who came within two wins of a World Series title.

Let’s start with those who start.

Everyone agrees that this year’s starting rotation is better than last year’s, but just how much better is it? Before we get to the statistics, just consider that this year’s playoff starts will be handled almost exclusively by Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and the 2010 version of Cole Hamels. Last year’s rotation was headlined by Cliff Lee, the 2009 version of Cole Hamels, and a three headed monster of Pedro Martinez, J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton.

So, essentially the Phillies have gone from a 2009 rotation that went one-deep to one that goes three-deep with elite starters.

A deeper look at those starting rotations reveals a few main themes.

First, Phillies starters not named Cliff Lee averaged only 5 innings pitched during their ten postseason starts. Next, Cole Hamels was particularly awful in the 2009 postseason. He started four games, averaged 4.2 innings per start, and posted an ERA of 7.58. Lastly, Cliff Lee was clearly as dominant a starter as a team could wish for in the playoffs. He averaged 8.0 innings pitched during his five playoff starts, with a ridiculous ERA of 1.56.

In summary, due to the short outings of their starters during the 2009 playoffs, the Phillies bullpen was responsible for an average of four full innings per game in the ten games not started by Cliff Lee. However, even with a struggling Brad Lidge, an inconsistent Ryan Madsen, and only two reliable left-handers in J.C. Romero and Scott Eyre (Antonio Bastardo made minimal contributions), the Phillies came within two wins of a second straight World Series title. .

If the Phillies make a deep postseason run again this year, it is quite possible that only two or three playoff games will be started by a pitcher other than Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt or Cole Hamels. Based on their regular season numbers, this Phillies big three are averaging just under seven full innings per start.

Therefore, if the Phillies get the performance they are paying for from their big-name starters, they could realistically be looking for just about two innings per night from their bullpen, as opposed to the four innings they were sweating out during many of last year‘s playoff games.

The reality is that a set of only five or six relievers will be counted on to get six or seven outs to secure playoff wins. The right-handed options will include Chad Durbin, Jose Contreras, Ryan Madsen and Brad Lidge. The more nerveracking at-bats will be contested by lefties J.C. Romero and Antonio Bastardo, unless the team acquires another arm via a waiver deal. That leaves Joe Blanton or Kyle Kendrick for long relief, similar to the roles assumed by Blanton and Happ last season.

Now, clearly this analysis is oversimplifying what it takes to get six outs at the end of a major league baseball playoff game. However, it provides a little perspective to the panic we have all been having over some of the bad relief appearances we have seen from the 2010 Phillies.

So, despite the contempt that exists for Baez and Herndon, the Phillies will make us tolerate them for another regular season. The team’s financial situation will prevent them from paying Baez to pitch somewhere else and also from paying someone else far more than David Herndon to pitch here.

The consolation is that neither Baez nor Herndon will find themselves on the roster for any the team’s postseason series.

The Phillies still have question marks surrounding their closer and left-handed relieving corps. However, they have a group of starters that is light years ahead of last year’s, which will make the relievers responsible for fewer outs than either the 2008 or 2009 bullpens .

Take a deep breath, Phillies fans.

Welcome back Victorino, then Howard, then Utley.

Then, let this team make the bullpen look good.

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Breaking up is always hard to do, even when it’s for the best.

You start reminiscing about all the good times you’ve had, the places you’ve traveled together.

It’s even harder when you live together.  All their stuff is in your place, and everywhere you look are reminders of the good thing you had.

But sometimes it has to be done, even if you don’t have another special someone waiting in the wings.

You don’t stay with someone just because you’ve always been with them, hoping that things will get better.

Sometimes, it’s just no longer working and you need to start seeing other people.

For the Phillies and Brad Lidge, that sometime should be now.

There’s a give and take in every relationship.  Last night, the Phillies took the lead in the top of the ninth against the Nationals.

And Brad Lidge gave it away.

It was clear from the start the inning would end badly.  Lidge had no semblance of the strike zone last night.

Even the untrained eye could see he was struggling just to put the ball over.

A typical Lidge outing these days is enough to make your heart race–although not in a good way, like in the old days.

The year was 2008, and Brad Lidge was perfect. Not one blown save.

Not in the regular season.

Not in the postseason.

Lidge came out of that bullpen, and you knew it was game over–for the good guys.

Not any more.

Sure there are sparks of what made you fall in love with the guy in the first place.

The fall-off-the-table slider.

The sizzling fastball.

But when one of the traits starts to fade and you look a little deeper, you realize that there’s not much else there.

Lidge is a two-pitch pony. When one isn’t working, he has to lean on the other to get by.

Even this casual baseball writer can see it.

So what do you think happened when a professional hitter named Ryan Zimmerman stood in against Lidge in the bottom of the ninth with two on, trailing by one?

Lidge got smacked around.

Hard.

He sent that ball deep (and I mean deep ) to straightaway center field.

You square away on a ball like that, you knew what was coming.

Really, we all should have seen what was coming.

Perhaps someone (say, Charlie Manuel) should have seen how wild Lidge was and prevented the abuse that was to follow.

If a starting pitcher was that wild, he would have signaled for the bullpen.

But in baseball these days, it’s the closer’s job to get it done.  And in general, managers stick with those closers until the game is either won or lost.

Even if it’s obvious that a guy just doesn’t have good stuff on a night, he’s left out there to do his job.

The problem that Manuel is facing is that he really doesn’t have anyone else in the ‘pen who has shown he can do the job.

And unfortunately, the clock just struck midnight, ending the annual ball that is the trading deadline, with nary a maiden with closer stuff going home with our handsome prince.

So the Phillies leave the party with the same date they brought. Never showing any signs of checking out the other options there.

While it does speak to their loyalty, it doesn’t do much for the long term happiness of the team…and its fans.

Maybe things will get better. 

Maybe Lidge will find that spark that made him the best closer in baseball two years ago.

Maybe.

But most broken marriages don’t get better without counseling.

Perhaps Lidge can learn a new pitch, like Cole Hamels did in the offseason, so he isn’t walking so narrow a tightrope should he not have his best stuff on a given night.

Maybe they just need a “cooling off period,” so Lidge can focus on him, because we all know we can’t contribute to a relationship unless we’re comfortable in our own skin.

All I know is that this marriage between Lidge and the Phillies appears to be broken, and their friends are worried about it.

We Phillies fans know you have been through a lot together, and we hate to choose sides.

But like in most splits, you end up sticking with the friend you’ve known longer.

Sorry, Brad.

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