Kuzul

When the Philadelphia Phillies selected outfielder Domonic Brown in the 20th round of the 2006 First Year Player Draft, they had no idea just what kind of steal they made.

Originally from Florida, the Phillies were one of the only teams to keep track of the young high school star when he moved to Georgia. After watching him play, they were so convinced in his baseball potential that they paid him a $200k signing bonus to play baseball in their organization, rather than going to college to play football.

Six years later, it’s safe to say the Phillies made a sound investment.

After a few solid years in the Phillies’ lower minor league system, Brown really broke onto the scene in 2010, splitting time with the Reading Phillies and Lehigh Valley IronPigs, and putting up an incredible slash line of .332 / .391 / .582, with 20 home runs, 68 RBI, and 17 stolen bases, demonstrating all of baseball’s “five tools.” With production like that under his minor league belt, the Phillies couldn’t hold him back much longer. When Shane Victorino hit the Disabled List in late July, the Phillies’ promoted Brown to the big club.

He made his debut on July 28, 2010, against the Arizona Diamondbacks, before an ecstatic Phillies’ crowd. Starting in right field, he put together an impressive debut, doubling to deep right in his first at-bat as the ball just missed going over the wall. When the day was done, Brown was two-for-three, with a double, a single, two RBIs and two runs scored to his name. Sadly, his season took a turn for the worst after that.

When Victorino returned from the Disabled List, Brown moved on to the Phillies’ bench. Though the team considered sending him back to AAA, he was regarded a better option off of the bench than a struggling Greg Dobbs, who was ultimately sent packing.

In hindsight, it probably was not the best decision by the team. The left hander struggled to find a groove, posting a collective slash line of .210 / .257 / .355, with two home runs and 13 RBI in 70 plate appearances.

That’s hardly a reason to sour on a prospect, however.

After all, when Ryan Howard made his debut with the Phillies in 2004, his “light tower power” was nowhere to be found, as he hit just two home runs in 19 games. It was much the same story for second baseman Chase Utley, who posted a slash line of .239 / .322 / .373, with two home runs for the Phillies in 43 games in 2003. However, that didn’t stop the Phillies from trading their incumbent second baseman Placido Polanco to the Detriot Tigers to make room for him.

More often than not, that’s the way things shake out for top prospects. Teams understand that transitioning to the Major League level and facing more advanced pitching is not simple.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that their talent won’t translate to the big leagues, as Howard and Utley have proved, along with a countless number of other top prospects. If teams can understand, we must do the same. Why then, should Brown begin the season in AAA?

When Jayson Werth hit free agency, the Phillies knew that there was little hope to re-sign him. He was, by far, the second best outfielder on the market, after Carl Crawford. After grooming Brown for so many years in the minor leagues, the Phillies hoped that Werth’s replacement would come from within the organization and would replicate his production without a hitch.

After watching Brown be completely overwhelmed by major league pitching in 2010, the Phillies clearly weren’t comfortable giving him the everyday job. They made an offer to Werth, and though it was a competitive offer, reportedly in line with what the Boston Red Sox offered the slugger, it was nowhere near what the Washington Nationals paid for the outfielder.

With a lack of other suitable options on the free agent market, it’s now apparent that Werth’s heir apparent will come from within the organization after all—whether or not that heir is Brown is another question entirely.

Brown’s struggles at the major league level were certainly not from a lack of talent. As reviewed on MLB Network’s Hot Stove, it was a lack of consistent playing time that really hurt Brown and for obvious reasons. Young players like him need to play everyday. Baseball is a sport of repetition, after all.

By the end of the season, sitting on the bench had influenced Brown’s swing in a negative way. The way he held his hands, his lack of timing, his stride—several integral parts of his swing had been thrown out of whack. He may have been able to get away with several tiny flaws in AAA, but not in the majors, where every hitter is reviewed and studied and when game time comes around, attacked in a specific way.

While using Brown solely against right-handed pitching was a necessary cog in the machine that was the Phillies’ bench, not exposing him to left-handed pitching is going to hurt him and Philadelphia in the future. Instead, they intend to use him again in a role that would see him face a majority of right-handed pitching—a platoon role, with right-handed hitter Ben Francisco.

Once again, the Phillies’ thinking, for the present, is spot on. According to MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, Francisco and Brown are the pre-Spring Training favorites to break camp with the big-league club in right field. It makes sense. Brown, who completely destroyed right-handed pitching in the minor leagues, would team up with Francisco, who posted a strong .901 OPS against left-handed pitchers in 2010. It seems like a fantasy outfielder dreamed up in a video game, if both players slug to their potential. However, it is an extremely near-sighted move by the Phillies.

In order for that platoon to succeed, Brown will have had to have corrected his swing by Opening Day, and at this point, that seems highly unlikely. Like many young players, Brown made a trip to the Dominican Republic earlier in the offseason to play winter ball. He hit just .069, after collecting just two hits in 20 at-bats. Clearly, there are problems with his swing that the team is overlooking because of his potential. However, that isn’t the same as saying Brown has flamed out as a top prospect. Things like this take time to correct. It’s like breaking an ankle—walking again is a slow process, but we all know you can do it.

The Phillies, however, are cooking with a recipe for disaster.

There are two things you never want to force a young hitter into. One is changing his swing. A lot of times, slumps like these are a matter of comfort for a young hitter. It may take a month to fix, but eventually, he’ll find his groove again. It’s not going to take a drastic change to fix his swing. He just needs time.

The second is forcing a young hitter to correct his swing at the major league level. Despite what some people are led to believe, pitchers in the MLB are the elite of elites. These are men that are paid millions of dollars to expose a hitter’s weakness and like lions lying in wait, will jump all over that weakness in due time. Veteran hitters are able to go through slumps and rebound because of the experience they’ve acquired. However, baseball can be an intimidating sport for a young man.

If the Phillies want to avoid a prospect catastrophe, they’ll send Brown to AAA to begin the season, unless he can somehow correct his swing before Opening Day. Allowing him to play every day, against both right-handed and left-handed pitching, will be the key. If they allow him to play comfortably in AAA and call him up when he’s at his hottest, avoiding slumps like those experienced in 2010 won’t be a problem.

What about the “situation” in right field, you wonder?

There really never was a situation at all. An experienced left-handed hitter like Ross Gload would have no problem in a platoon. Used specifically against right-handed pitchers in 2010 as the team’s top left-handed threat off the bench, Gload had an OPS of .818 against lefties.

Combined with Francisco’s right-handed prowess, they combine for a one-year stopgap that isn’t all too shabby. Who knows? As I mentioned in this piece, the Phillies may have a budding superstar on their hands in Francisco. That makes starting Brown in AAA a smart, easy decision for the Phillies. Even if they sign a lefty outfielder on the cheap, like Scott Podsednik, finding successful left-handed hitters isn’t much of a challenge. On the other hand, finding a superstar is. With Brown in AAA, they’ll have options. If the platoon fails, they’ll have Brown to call on, and if it succeeds, Francisco will likely have played a large part in that success.

After all, with Raul Ibanez’s contract expiring after the 2011 season, the Phillies will have multiple holes in their outfield to fill, and in a perfect world, Francisco and Brown will make for a potent pair of corner outfielders. It all starts with a simple decision this year—let Brown start in AAA.

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The Phillies locked up their final arbitration eligible player today by signing pitcher Kyle Kendrick to a one-year, $2.45 million dollar deal.  Ben Francisco signed this past Saturday as well.  His contract is also for one-year and totals $1.175 million.

To start the year, Kendrick will wind up in one of two places.  If Joe Blanton is traded, Kendrick will be the favorite to win the fifth starters spot.  If Blanton stays, Kendrick can take over the long-man job in the bullpen that was vacated by the still unsigned Chad Durbin.

The nice part about avoiding arbitration for the Phillies is having less drama going into Spring Training.  This is especially true for Kendrick, who seemed constantly conflicted about his role with the team in traveling back and forth to the minors

The only thing Kendrick has to worry about now is pitching.  This kind of focus, without the unnecessary distraction of a hearing, is exactly what Kendrick needs to be successful.

It has been a busy off-season for Kendrick.  He got married to Stephanie LaGrossa, bringing the second Survivor contestant into the Phillies family.  Heidi Hamels is the other former Survivor.   And now, Kendrick can add “millionaire” to his resume.

But the best part of his new-found stability is that Kendrick will probably not fall for any more “you have been traded to Japan” pranks. 

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With former Philadelphia Phillie Jayson Werth signing with the division rival Washington Nationals for $126 MM for seven-years, it allowed GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. to have a play at the former Phillie and much longed for Cliff Lee.  Amazingly, that deal shocked baseball as Cliff Lee left millions of dollars on the table to return to a team that he was comfortable with and enjoyed.  As a Phillies fan, I am extremely excited to have Lee back on the team, especially since I spent twelve months criticizing Amaro for getting rid of Lee to begin with.  Werth, being 32-years-old, would not be worth the money that the Nationals are paying him once he gets a few years older, and it is certainly worthwhile to bring Lee back at the cost of Werth, as many Phillies fans agree.  As much as the team improves with the addition of Lee, there has been a lot of discussion about how to fill the whole that Jayson Werth left.

Jayson Werth was certainly a productive player for the Phillies and has helped them to their four consecutive NL East championships.  He did not solely help the Phillies to this achievement however, since baseball is, after all, a team sport.  Werth will be 39-years-old at the end of his contract.  He may still be a productive player, but it is unlikely that he will be as productive in the latter years of the contract that he has been in the past few years, especially if he became injured again or as he becomes slower with age.

With Werth no longer in the Phillies lineup, there has been a lot of discussing about how to and who will replace Werth in right field and as a right-handed hitter.  There has been a lot of discussion about a platoon in right field consisting of Ben Francisco and Ross Gload or Dominic Brown.  However, I think that splitting right field with either Gload or Brown leaves much to be desired since they both are left-handed hitters, and Brown also had very disappointing numbers at the plate in the winter league.  The Phillies, having picked up Lee, do not have a great deal of expenses that they could use to acquire a new right fielder, plus the pickings are thin by now.

So why not just use Ben Francisco as the starter?  He may not be as productive as Jayson Werth, but there is not a huge gap between their numbers from the stats for 2010, and Francisco was largely used as a pinch hitter and not a starter.  If he had chances to start everyday, he could find a rhythm and become more productive than an off the bench player.

Comparing Francisco’s stats to Werth’s stats for 2010, we can see there is not a big difference, excepting the number of games played and at bats.  In 554 at bats for 2010, Werth batted for an average of .296 with 27 home runs and 85 RBIs.  Werth’s on base percentage was .388 with a slugging average of .532.  Werth did lead the league in doubles with 46 and had 13 stolen bases, but he did have 147 strikeouts.  Doing the math, that means that almost 27-percent of the time that Werth was batting, he struck out.

Francisco had 179 at bats in 2010, which is just shy of a third of the at bats that Werth had.  During those 179 at bats, Francisco batted for .268 with 6 home runs and 28 RBIs.  Francisco had an on base percentage of .327 with a slugging average of .441, which is not much less than Werth’s relative numbers.  He also had 13 doubles and 8 stolen bases.  If we multiply his numbers by 3 to make it comparative to having played a full season, that would equal 18 home runs, 84 RBIs, 39 doubles, and 24 stolen bases, assuming everything was directly proportionate through the season.  If those numbers proved to be the true production of Ben Francisco over a whole season, he would be a perfect replacement for Jayson Werth.  Cliff was certainly Werth the loss, and Ben Francisco can be a great replacement for Jayson Werth if he is given a chance to prove himself.

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Over the past couple of seasons, Jayson Werth has become immensely popular, both in the city of Philadelphia and around Major League Baseball, for his crazy hair and beard combo, power from the right side of the plate and his strong arm from right field, among other things, making him one of the prime free agent targets this offseason.

Rumors of seven-year contracts and the asking price of $100 million have forced people to forget that in the not so distant past, Werth was but a simple platoon player in the Phillies’ outfield, begging for a chance to become an everyday player.

Now that he is one and is likely to leave the Phillies via free agency, there has been much ado about his replacement in right field.

Despite general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. voicing the team’s need to find a right-handed platoon partner for up-and-coming right fielder Domonic Brown, there aren’t too many attractive options available through the free agent market. Even more so, the Phillies already have an in-house, right-handed hitting outfielder who bears a lot of similar traits to those of Werth.

With a lack of significant upgrades and his cost effectiveness in mind, is Ben Francisco poised for a breakout year in 2011?

Let’s set the stage a bit.

After a disappointing first round exit at the hands of the Colorado Rockies in the 2007 playoffs, the Phillies were facing a few contract options before the 2008 season began, the most notable of which was a bidding war over free agent outfielder Aaron Rowand.

While en route to becoming a National League powerhouse, the Phillies were still a moderately conservative team entering the offseason prior to 2008 and unwilling to commit five years to Rowand despite their interest in retaining the outfielder. It was reported that the Phillies offered Rowand a three-year deal, but he was not interested.

In the long run, the San Francisco Giants offered Rowand a five-year, $60 million contract, which he accepted.

Despite Rowand being a Type A free agent offered arbitration, the Giants’ first round pick in the upcoming First Year Player Draft was protected, and thus, they did not have to surrender the pick to the Phillies as compensation for signing Rowand.

The Phillies instead received a supplemental first round pick, slotted behind the first round. Giants fans should be grateful, as they would go ahead to pick catcher Buster Posey with the fifth overall pick, while the Phillies drafted a bust in the outfield in Zach Collier.

Without Rowand, the Phillies went a different route in shoring up their right field situation, ironically similar to what is happening with Jayson Werth in 2010. Werth was already under contract as a reclamation project in 2008, and the Phillies liked what he brought to the table from the right side of the plate.

In 2007, Werth had absolutely mashed left-handed pitching, hitting .375 with five home runs, all the while compiling an on-base percentage of .467 and slugging a cool .591. The Phillies saw Werth as the ideal player to platoon, as his numbers against right-handed pitching were significantly weaker.

The Phillies set their sights on a longtime Milwaukee Brewer who had been known for his success against right-handed pitching and turned a couple of heads by signing right fielder Geoff Jenkins, who they’d already designated as Werth’s platoon partner, to a two-year, $13 million contract, with an option for a third year that could push the total value of the deal to $20 million.

The Phillies were paying Jenkins to play like a full-time outfielder while reducing him to a platoon role.

Nonetheless, Jenkins played some uninspiring baseball for the Phillies in 2008. Signed to specifically contribute against right-handed pitching, Jenkins only managed to hit .256 with nine home runs for the Phillies from the left side of the plate.

It became quickly apparent that Jenkins’ numbers against-right handed pitching were not all that better than Werth’s, and by the All-Star break, Jenkins had been reduced to a bench player. The Phillies handed the job to their new, full-time right fielder, Jayson Werth, who, after helping the Phillies to a World Series title in 2008, went on to establish himself as one of the best right-handed hitting outfielders in baseball in 2009 and 2010.

All of that is ancient history now.

However, if history has taught us one thing, it’s that it often repeats itself. Just as they did entering the 2008 season, the Phillies have one half of a platoon seemingly committed to right field in 2011, that being lefty Domonic Brown. Heralded as one of the game’s top prospects in 2010, Brown is looking to finally break free from the shackles of “prospectdom” and into the spotlight as a starter in the major league.

This isn’t a simple transition, and thus, Ruben Amaro Jr. has stated the team’s interest in finding a right-handed hitter to platoon with Brown in right field. Instead of scouring a weak free agent market for a right-handed-hitting outfielder, the Phillies may be best suited in slotting one of their own into that position—that being Ben Francisco.

Francisco, 29, was acquired by the Phillies alongside Cliff Lee at the 2009 trade deadline, where he has since served as the team’s top right-handed pinch hitter.

Interestingly enough, Francisco is not unfamiliar with a starting role, as he started 98 games in the outfield in 2008 with the Cleveland Indians, proving that he can cut it as a major league outfielder by posting a slash line (average / on-base percentage / slugging percentage) of .266/.327/.441. Crowded outfields in Philadelphia may have reduced his role, but Francisco is poised for a breakout season, if given the chance.

Against left-handed pitching in 2010, Francisco had a respectable slash line of .284/.344/.557. That’s good enough for an OPS (On-base + Slugging Percentage) of .901 against left-handed pitching. Jayson Werth’s OPS against left-handed pitching? .881.

The Phillies have trusted Francisco in big roles before as well. For instance, he served as the designated hitter in New York against the Yankees in the 2009 World Series and spelled Raul Ibanez in left field during the 2010 National League Championship Series.

However, what may appeal most to the Phillies is the money they’d be saving by platooning Ben Francisco and Domonic Brown in right field.

Jayson Werth made about $10 million patrolling right field in Citizens Bank Park in 2010. The Phillies could save about $8.5 million by paying Domonic Brown, who will make the league minimum, and Ben Francisco, who could earn close to $1 million in 2011. That would allow the Phillies to spend money addressing other issues, most notably on the bullpen.

The Phillies may not be creating a super outfielder by platooning Francisco and Brown in 2011, but they are doing a couple of very important things.

Firstly, they are getting Brown used to playing daily at the major league level. They’ll also be giving Francisco a chance to prove himself as an everyday player in Philadelphia after paying his due diligence on the Phillies’ bench. If he proves to do anything similar to what Werth did in 2008, the Phillies will have found their starting left fielder for 2012, when Ibanez’s time will almost certainly have come to an end in Philadelphia.

Not many teams were willing to give Jayson Werth a real chance to be an everyday player, and look at him now. While the Phillies could spend on righties like Jeff Francoeur or Jermaine Dye, they may have a diamond waiting in the rough in Ben Francisco.

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The Philadelphia Phillies face many questions heading into this offseason.  The biggest among them deals with the expiring contract of right fielder Jayson Werth.  Though the questions do not stop there for Ruben Amaro Jr., a man who has had all the answers thus far in his short time as Phillies’ general manager.  

Many controversial moves have helped define Amaro’s gutsy persona in Philadelphia.  He’s become one of the top GMs in the sport and is no stranger to taking chance.  This 2010 team appeared to have it all for the Phillies, though their abrupt exit proved otherwise.  

The 2011 season presents its share of challenges and another chance to continue what has become the Philadelphia dynasty.  The Phillies are one of the best teams in the league and boast a stellar 1-2-3 punch in their rotation.  

In the end though, injuries and inconsistency plagued this team and got the best of them.  Here are 10 questions for the Phillies to ponder this winter.   

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Many experts are saying that the Phillies are in trouble in the NLCS against the Giants. Personally, I disagree.

If the Flyers taught the city of Philadelphia anything, it’s not over ’til it’s over. 

Many experts are also saying that the Phillies need to make a change in Game 4, and I agree with them; the Phillies do need to make a change, just not the change most experts are saying.

The experts are saying the Phillies should start Roy Halladay on three days rest instead of Joe Blanton.

As you probably saw in the article I wrote about A.J. Burnett, starting Halladay on three days rest would be the worst thing the Phillies could do. If they start Halladay, then that means Oswalt and Hamels have to go on three days rest too. 

Even if they lose Game 4, I would rather have the big three rested than have them pitch on three days. Pitching them on three days rest means the series is likely over.

However, I do think the Phillies need to make a change to the lineup in Game 4. That change is simple: insert Ben Francisco into the lineup in left field and bench Raul Ibanez. 

I understand Ibanez makes a huge amount of money (it’s a terrible contract and the Phillies are stuck with him), but the reality is Ibanez is absolutely killing the Phillies right now. He is 0-for-15 at the plate, with strikeouts in half of his at-bats, and he has hit into a double play (so he actually has made more than 15 outs); he also dropped a fly ball in Game 1 that had he caught, the Phillies would have won. 

I know it was a tough catch, but he was under it and should have made the play; any good fielding left fielder catches that ball.

See, that’s the problem: Ibanez is in the lineup for his bat, and if the bat isn’t hitting, then he shouldn’t be in the lineup. 

Francisco is faster and better defensively, and he can not do any worse at the plate. Even if Francisco goes 0-for-4, his defense still makes him a better start than Ibanez.

I have long been a fan of Francisco and a detractor of Ibanez. I have said since day one that Ibanez’s contract was ridiculous and that Francisco could put up the same numbers as Ibanez if given the playing time.

I will make it clear that I don’t like Raul Ibanez as a ballplayer. 

I think his hitting is average and he can’t field. As a Phillies fan, I dislike him because the $13-14 million a season he is making will be the main reason the Phillies lose Jayson Werth in the offseason.

If they had not signed Ibanez to that ridiculous deal, they could platoon Dominic Brown and Francisco in left field and the two combined would make about $1 million and probably give you equal or more production at the plate and better defense than Ibanez.

The nice part of this argument is Charlie Manuel can sit Ibanez down without making it look like he has lost faith in Raul.

See, the Giants are pitching lefty Madison Bumgarner in Game 4 this evening, and Manuel often sat Ibanez in favor of Francisco when a lefty was on the mound. This way, Manuel can hide behind the fact that he is making the move simply to get a right handed bat in the lineup and that it is not because he lost faith in Ibanez.

Thus, he can sit him down without making Ibanez look bad. He has a built in excuse already provided by the left handed pitching matchup. 

Gregg Doyel of CBS Sportsline wrote a great article about how Manuel may have already phoned it in on the Phillies because Charlie said that it was getting kind of late to be making moves. To that I say, Charlie, you are paid to manage the Phillies, and any manager can see a guy who is a below average fielder and is 0-for-15 at the plate shouldn’t be in the lineup. 

Look at Bruce Bochy, who sat down Andre Torres in favor of Aaron Rowand; Torres was only 0-for-8 in two games, and the series was tied. Good managers recognize when changes need to be made and have the guts to make them.

The next 24 hours will tell us a lot about Charlie Manuel’s ability to manage this team. If he sits Ibanez down, then the Phillies might still have a chance in this series.

If Charlie sticks with Ibanez, then his stubbornness may just cost the Phillies their chance at a third straight World Series appearance.

Here’s hoping Charlie does the right thing for the team and the city. Playing Ben Francisco tonight is really a no brainer.

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(6/27/2010)

Philadelphia, PA — Jamie Moyer went a solid seven innings, allowing only two runs on six hits, as the Phillies took the rubber match of their three game set with the Toronto Blue Jays 11-2.

Despite the win Moyer did clinch his spot in the “not so” record book when he passed Phillies hall-of-fame Robin Roberts for sole possession of the all-time home runs allowed list with his 506th.

The 47-year old Moyer (9-6) inched to the top of the list when Vernon Wells sent a two-run shot to left field in the bottom of the third.

Ben Francisco went 3-5 with two RBI and two doubles to lead the Phillies offensive assault.

The Phillies scored four runs in the top of the second the was capped off when catcher Drew Sardinha smacked a two-out double to left field that plated Wilson Valdez and Shane Victorino.

After Wells’ home run in the third, to put the Blue Jays on the board, Philadelphia responded scoring two runs in the top of the fourth. The runs came on back-to-back RBI singles from Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley.

Chase went 1-4 with the RBI single.

Blue Jays starter Brent Cecil (7-5) allowed seven runs—five of them earned—on 10 hits in only 4 2/3 innings.

The Phillies kept it going in the fifth as Ryan Howard led off the inning with a double and was scored one batter later when Shane Victorino hit a double down the left field line that scored Howard from second.

The Phillies batted around in the seventh as they scored four runs off Blue Jays middle-reliever Jason Frazer. None of the runs were earned as the Blue Jays defense fell apart in the inning.

After Jayson Werth flied out to right to start the inning. Ryan Howard reached on a bloop grounder to short that was overthrown by SS Alex Gonzalez. After Victorino singled to center putting runners on first and second Ben Francisco capped off his day with a double to left that plated Howard.

Raul Ibanez worked a one out walk to load the bases. The next two batters were a calamity for Toronto as Shane Victorino scored from third on a Wilson Valdez fielders choice but on the play second baseman Aaron Hill over threw first that allowed Ben Francisco to score from third.

Frasor got in on the defensive mishap when he overthrew first base on a Drew Sardinha grounder to the mound that scored Raul Ibanez.

The Phillies got another strong outing from their bullpen as David Herndon and Danys Baez both pitched scoreless innings to preserve the win for Moyer.

The Phillies are back in action today as they head to Cincinnati for a three-game set with the Reds. Kyle Kendrick (4-2) will take the mound for the Phillies as he will face Reds ace Johnny Cueto (7-2).

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