Tag: Andrew McCutchen

2014 National League MVP Race: Breaking Down the Candidates

As the MLB regular season wraps up its final week, there are a few players who are making last pushes to solidify their cases the for individual awards, and one of the most heated races is the competition for the NL MVP crown.

Did Giancarlo Stanton do enough before his injury? Does a pitcher really deserve to win an MVP? Or are there a few dark horses running around and ready to steal the show?

These are some of the questions that need to be asked and answered when selecting the winner, so here is a look at which player should be crowned the most valuable in the NL. 

 

Dark Horse: Andrew McCutchen—Pittsburgh Pirates

The reigning NL MVP has put together yet another impressive campaign. McCutchen’s .404 on-base percentage is currently top of the NL, his slugging percentage of .537 is second-best and his .310 batting average ranks third among the qualified leaders. 

In the sabermetric stat of “runs created per 27 outs,” McCutchen also leads all players in the league with 8.17 runs, which isn’t shocking when he’s capable of doing things like this.

Perhaps what makes all this that much more impressive is the fact that he has battled with a rib injury for the past month.

Pirates manager Clint Hurdle praised McCutchen’s toughness in an interview with Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Ron Cook, “He’s the model of a leader that you want on your club. He got through some tough spots early. The good news is he’s in a pretty good place right now. He’s in a competitive place. Everything he’s done has been aggressive.”

As a result of McCutchen’s efforts, the Pirates currently sit comfortably atop the wild-card race with a five-game lead.

 

Dark Horse: Buster Posey—San Francisco Giants

Just a few months ago, Posey would be nowhere near the discussion for this award. But with a second-half surge like no other, the man they call M-V-Posey in San Francisco will sure be getting some votes now.

At the time of the All-Star break, Posey had a batting average of just .277. Since then, he has batted .351 to lead all NL players with at least 200 at-bats. His 3.4 WAR during that stretch is also the best in the majors, according to FanGraphs.  

More importantly, Posey stepped up for the Giants when it mattered the most.

During the month of September, Posey is slashing a line of .389/.432/.583, and helped the Giants draw within three-and-a-half back in the NL West and go five games up in the wild card.

 

Favorite: Clayton Kershaw—Los Angeles Dodgers

To say Kershaw had a “nice” season would be an understatement for the ages. The numbers that the 26-year-old southpaw has put up this year are of historic proportions, and they begin with his career-bests of 1.80 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and .870 win percentage.

Kershaw is slated for one more start later this week, but for the moment he has given up the least amount of hits (132), earned runs (38), home runs (nine) and walks (31) he has ever had in a full season.

Kershaw also reached the 20-win mark in a remarkably short span, 26 starts to be exact. Since the expansion of the league, there have been only five other pitchers who accomplished such feat in so few starts, according to Elias Sports Bureau.

Throw in a no-hitter and a majors-best six shutouts along the season, and it becomes that much tougher to argue against Kershaw’s case.

 

Favorite: Giancarlo Stanton—Miami Marlins

Truth to be told, Stanton’s chances of capturing the NL MVP crown dwindled the moment he was struck in the face by Mike Fiers’ pitch two weeks ago, but that is not to say he should be out of the consideration completely.

Despite missing action since his injury on Sept. 11, many of Stanton’s numbers are still among the NL leaders.

The 37 homers he smashed are still a distant No. 1, and so are his 6.4 WAR, .555 slugging percentage and .950 on-base plus slugging percentage, according to ESPN.

Stanton’s RBI total of 105 has fallen to only second place behind the 112 from Dodgers’ Adrian Gonzalez, and the 115.6 runs he created for the Marlins this season are tied with Pirates’ McCutchen.

One argument against Stanton would be the injury that has cost him the final three weeks of his season, but it should be mentioned that Kershaw missed the first five weeks of his season. Both players should be treated equally for the numbers they put up during the time they were active.

Another argument against Stanton would be Miami’s lack of success, as the team currently stands at 74-81. But without Stanton’s help, just exactly where would the Marlins be this season?

CBSSports’ Jon Heyman put that into perspective:

His performance gave the Marlins hope into September, but that dream died the moment Stanton was struck in the kisser.

But Stanton still was the main reason the Marlins overcame a startlingly low $47 million payroll and disheartening injury to ace pitcher Jose Fernandez to remain in the race…No one could have foreseen a .500 season without Fernandez, but the Marlins came close.

 

Prediction: Giancarlo Stanton

The choice is not made based on whether a pitcher deserves to win the MVP award or not. If a player of any position puts up deserving numbers, they should be in the running.

The case made for Stanton is based on the fact that out of all the previous times a pitcher has won the MVP—be it Justin Verlander in 2011 or Bob Gibson and Denny McLain in 1968—those pitchers took home the award when no other position players came close to being worthy of the honor.

This time around, there is one.

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Giancarlo Stanton’s Freak Injury Has Made the NL MVP Race Wide Open

Sympathy is a powerful thing.

Giancarlo Stanton, the Miami Marlins poster boy with the movie-star looks, glittery smile and enough thunder in his bat to make Mighty Casey look like a slap-hitting second baseman, has that on his side in this year’s National League MVP race.

Sympathy. It yanks on heartstrings and makes people do things they probably should not. In this case, that could mean casting votes for Stanton after his career-best season ended last Thursday when he was drilled in the face by a fastball in Milwaukee.

The aftermath is still gruesome nearly a week later even though the progress is promising, and the Marlins await word on if Stanton can actually return this season.

Stanton’s recovery is good news for him and the Marlins, but the injury itself, which will likely keep him off the field for the rest of the season, should pretty much end his MVP campaign. 

It might be difficult for some to separate sympathy from an open mind, and that could lean some of the undecided voters toward Stanton’s case. What makes that ridiculous, besides the fact that sympathy has nothing to do with this race, is Stanton probably was not the league’s MVP before injury, based on the Bovada odds.

Despite Stanton’s incredible year—he still leads the league in home runs (37), walks (94), slugging percentage (.555) and OPS (.950)—Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw is having a historic season, which we have chronicled in this space before. Since Stanton’s injury, Kershaw has extended his lead in the Wins Above Replacement category at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com.

Whether one believes a pitcher can or cannot ever be as valuable as a position player—a crazy (wrong) debate in itself—what Stanton’s injury has done is left the vote wide open. If you don’t think Kershaw should win the award because he plays only every fifth game, and if Stanton was your pick before his injury, it is time to rethink things.

Pittsburgh Pirates superstar center fielder Andrew McCutchen is now the man to give Kershaw a real run for the MVP Award. McCutchen won the award last season, and it is arguable he is having a better year in 2014, as he leads the league with a .399 on-base percentage, 161 OPS-plus and 162 weighted runs created plus.

Helping McCutchen’s case is a strong stretch run after returning from a rib injury last month. Since Aug. 22, he has hit .333/.371/.567 with a .938 OPS and six homers. The Pirates are 14-8 in that time and have gone from 2.5 games out in the race for the second wild-card spot to 1.5 games up in it entering Tuesday. 

This run, along with Stanton’s injury and the belief by some that a pitcher cannot be a team’s most valuable player, makes McCutchen a serious threat to repeat the NL honor for the first time since Albert Pujols did it in 2008 and 2009. 

One of Stanton’s great advantages in this argument was that he had not missed time this season because of an injury, as Kershaw did in April and McCutchen in August. That argument disappeared as Stanton lay on the ground near Miller Park’s home plate, blood spilling from his face and the baseball world watching in shock and fear of how badly it might end. 

Stanton, in order to make his candidacy the top one, needed a strong finish. Even though he had four home runs and three doubles in 10 September games, he was hitting .231 with a .318 OBP in the final month.

Maybe it is possible Stanton could return this season, and if he does, that is great. It is good for a fanbase that has struggled to marry itself to one of the franchise’s recent superstars, and it will be good for Stanton to prove to himself he can still dig into the box against an inside fastball in a major league game before going away for the winter. 

What Stanton’s possible return should not do is cement his case as the league MVP. He was not the best player before the injury, and the gap has since increased while McCutchen has strengthened his resume.

In order to upend a historic season by Kershaw, Stanton needed to stay healthy and productive in the final month. It would have given those unwilling to vote for a pitcher for MVP a sturdier leg to lean on and Stanton a good final whack to change any minds not leaning his way.

That hasn’t happened, and the race is looking like it should have a clear winner by now. Then again, right or wrong, sympathy could be as powerful as any dominant performance.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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Clayton Kershaw Forces Way into NL MVP Discussion with 18th Win

After defeating the San Diego Padres on Monday night and notching his 18th win of the season, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw has forced his way into the National League MVP discussion with just a little more than two weeks left in the regular season.

In 24 starts this season, the Dodgers’ ace sports an 18-3 record and leads all pitchers in ERA (1.67), WHIP (0.82) and WAR (7.5) and is the likely front-runner to win the National League CY Young Award.

While pitchers have typically been left off MVP voting ballots, Kershaw’s strong season has pushed him into elite company, via Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com:

With MVP awards typically reserved for position players, Kershaw‘s historic season has started to prove he is more important to his team than the other presumed front-runners: Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen and Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton.

In 128 games this season, McCutchen has hit .311 with 22 home runs, 74 RBI and has an OPS of .938.

Down in Miami, Stanton has batted .291 in 143 games with 37 home runs, leads the National League with 105 RBI and has registered an OPS of .957.

With Pittsburgh holding just a 1.5-game lead in the NL Wild Card and Miami sitting 4.5 games back, McCutchen‘s and Stanton’s great seasons may be diminished if their teams fail to make it to the playoffs.

Kershaw and the Dodgers currently sit atop the National League West with a 3.5-game lead. Barring some unforeseen breakdown, they appear to be headed to the postseason.

While making the postseason is not a prerequisite for winning an MVP award, Kershaw’s WAR of 7.5—and the fact that the Dodgers have won 20 of the 24 games in which he has started—would indicate that without him on the mound, the Dodgers would be fighting with teams like the Marlins in the middle of the pack for a wild-card spot.

The WAR stat has become more commonplace in recent years, and after 2011 MVP Justin Verlander was named the first pitcher to win the award since Roger Clemons in 1986, the groundwork has been laid out for a dominant pitcher like Kershaw to win the award. 

Verlander finished the 2011 season going 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA, a .920 WHIP and led all pitchers with an 8.4 WAR. Twenty-two players received votes in the AL for MVP that season and only one player, Ben Zobrist, finished with a higher WAR (8.7) than Verlander. Despite boasting the higher WAR, Zobrist finished 16th in the balloting.

Just as Verlander sat near the top of all MLB players in 2011 with his WAR, Kershaw‘s 7.5 WAR is the highest among all qualifying players in both leagues. Stanton’s 6.39 and McCutchen‘s 5.47 puts them squarely in the top 20, but that may be what helps Kershaw land the most votes at the end of the season.

There is no guarantee that Kershaw‘s league-leading WAR will help claim him the award, but after comparing his 2014 season to that of Verlander’s in 2011, it appears that Kershaw is quickly headed toward the top of the MVP discussion following his 18th win Monday night. 

 

All stats courtesy of ESPN.com. 

Follow @MattEurich 

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Andrew McCutchen Injury: Updates on Pirates Star’s Ribs and Return

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in the thick of the National League wild-card race, but they received some unfortunate news Tuesday evening. The team’s official Twitter page filled fans in on the details regarding the health of superstar Andrew McCutchen:

McCutchen was 0-for-3 when he left Tuesday’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals. His importance in the Pittsburgh lineup cannot be overstated, though.

On the year, he is hitting .307 with 20 home runs, 70 RBI, 69 walks and 17 stolen bases. He also boasts a .942 on-base plus slugging percentage and is a crucial piece of the team’s defense from center field.

The defending National League MVP has helped lead the Pirates into playoff contention for the second consecutive year. They are 1.5 games out of the second wild-card spot, and this series with the Cardinals (who lead all wild-card contenders) is particularly important.

Losing McCutchen for an extended amount of time would cripple Pittsburgh’s postseason hopes. Stay tuned for updates as they develop.

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Will Andrew McCutchen’s Injury Sink the Pirates’ Playoff Hopes?

There is a moment when a star player winces, or staggers or crumples in pain, and an entire fanbase holds its collective breath. Sometimes it’s nothing, sometimes it’s everything.

Unfortunately for the Pittsburgh Pirates and their fans, the injury suffered by MVP center fielder Andrew McCutchen doesn’t sound like nothing. 

McCutchen’s fateful wince came while taking a swing Sunday in the eighth inning of the Pirates’ 3-2 extra-inning loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. He clutched his left side as he hobbled up the first-base line (though in typical McCutchen fashion, the hack resulted in a sacrifice fly). Ultimately, he had to be helped off the field.

“I thought I was cramping,” McCutchen later told Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “I never really have had any problems in that area.”

Looks like more than a cramp. Citing an unnamed source—the Pirates had yet to release any official word on McCutchen’s status as of Monday night—the Post-Gazette‘s Ron Cook wrote that McCutchen is “expected” to be placed on the 15-day DL and “could be out at least three weeks or a month because of what appeared to be a serious oblique muscle injury.”

Again, that’s yet to be confirmed. If it is true, it’d spell big, possibly ship-sinking, trouble for the Pirates, who looked to be on course for the postseason.

McCutchen’s value cannot be overstated. At the time of his injury, he owned a .311/.411/.536 slash line to go along with 17 home runs, 67 RBI and 17 stolen bases. If he wasn’t the front-runner to win a second consecutive NL MVP award, he was squarely in the conversation.

Now, the Bucs are faced with the prospect of sailing on without their superstar for at least the foreseeable future. It won’t be easy.

Entering play Tuesday Pittsburgh is locked in a tight three-way battle in the NL Central. Just 1.5 games separate the first-place Milwaukee Brewers and third-place Pirates, and the second-place Cardinals sit in the middle, one game off the pace.

All three teams could technically qualify for the postseason. But in this era of the one-game Wild Card play-in, it’s all about winning the division and punching a guaranteed ticket to the first-round best-of-five series.

Last year Pittsburgh broke through, finishing 94-68 and making the playoffs for the first time since 1992. It won the Wild Card Game but lost, 3-2, in the division series to the Cardinals. 

This season was a chance to build on that success. To reclaim forgotten treasure.

It could still happen. Even if McCutchen does miss a month, he’d return in time for the stretch run. The trick will be for the Pirates to keep their heads above water in the meantime.

The Bucs do boast decent outfield depth. Josh Harrison (.304/.342/.497 with 10 HR) has been a revelation, and Starling Marte, who has experience in center field, is eligible to come off of the seven-day concussion DL on Tuesday, per Howard Burns of the Pittsburgh Business Times. 

Pittsburgh could also try to pull off a post-deadline desperation deal, as Tom Gatto of Sporting News speculated:

Will the Bucs try to acquire an outfield bat, such as the Phillies‘ Marlon Byrd, in a waiver trade? Byrd might be too expensive, both in terms of players and contract. [He] has an $8 million option for 2015 that he reportedly wants picked up if he’s traded, plus an $8 million vesting option for 2016.

Let’s be real, though. Without McCutchen, the Pirates simply aren’t serious contenders. 

A little solace for the hand-wringing Pittsburgh faithful: McCutchen isn’t injury-prone. He’s played at least 154 games every season since 2010, the very definition of durable.

That can change in a hurry, but it may bode well for the MVP’s chances of getting back sooner rather than later.

He’d better. Pirates fans can only hold their breath for so long.

 

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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2014 MLB All-Star Roster: Complete Lineups for American and National Leagues

Baseball is a sport steeped in tradition, and the 2014 edition of the MLB All-Star Game has the unenviable honor of trying to live up to the high standards of the annual event.

Fortunately for hardcore and casual fans alike, the rosters for both the American and National Leagues are stacked with elite hitters and dominant pitchers. The game should be a fierce battle with home-field advantage in the World Series on the line.

Here are the complete rosters for the AL and NL and a focus on the player whom baseball fans are most excited to see in action.

 

Player to Watch: Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

A cadre of pitchers could steal the show in the All-Star Game, and several hitters have the power to dominate the headlines, but no one possesses the game-changing abilities of Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen.

While many fans immediately think of his consistency and power at the plate, McCutchen is arguably the best outfielder in the sport. With a unique mixture of speed and awareness in the field, he can cover an incredible amount of ground and make breathtaking catches.

The Pirates’ official Twitter account talked about where he ranks amongst the all-time Pittsburgh greats:

That speed also helps him on the basepaths. McCutchen has racked up 15 stolen bases this season and looks to be on pace to meet his season average of 23. He may look to use his baserunning ability during the actual All-Star Game.

When asked about the honor of making the Midsummer Classic, McCutchen told Tom Singer of MLB.com about going with his teammates and being voted as a starter:

It’s definitely an honor and I’m happy I will have some guys accompanying me there…It takes us winning to get that recognition, and we’ve done that the last couple of years. It’s good to see. Being in the All-Star Game is enough in itself. Being No. 1 [in voting for outfielders] is a plus, really cool.

ESPN’s Stats and Info department shared a great image of just how hot McCutchen has been since June 1:

McCutchen picked up right where he left off last season. He has compiled a .321 batting average, 15 home runs, 59 RBI, 53 runs and a .419 on-base percentage in 91 games this season. He looks to be on pace to match or surpass almost all of his regular-season averages.

In his three previous All-Star Game appearances, though, McCutchen has only managed one hit in five at-bats. It could be time for the Pittsburgh star to buck the trend and take the game over for the National League.

With 46 extra-base hits in 2014, McCutchen has the ability to change the game with one swing of his bat.

Predicted stat line: 2 at-bats, 2 hits, 1 RBI, 1 run, 1 stolen base

 

*Stats via MLB.com.

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How Andrew McCutchen Has Become an Even Better Player Post-MVP

The technical term for Andrew McCutchen‘s performance in 2012 and 2013 is “a hard act to follow.”

All he did was hit .322 with a .932 OPS across those two seasons, with last year’s National League MVP award being the bow on top of it all. It’s hard to ask a guy to be any better than that.

And yet, that’s what McCutchen has become in 2014: better.

If you haven’t been keeping up with the Pittsburgh Pirates superstar, you’ve been missing a heck of a show. McCutchen has been absolutely scorching in the month of June, owning a .421 average and 1.440 OPS in 14 games, the last eight of which have been multi-hit games.

MLB figured that was worth an award:

“It’s just so fun to watch a guy up there with that kind of confidence night in, night out,” Pirates manager Clint Hurdle recently told Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette of his superstar center fielder. “Once this calendar month flipped, man, he’s hit another gear.”

McCutchen was doing pretty well before June came, mind you, hitting .298 with an .862 OPS through 54 games. But with his June hot streak tacked on, his season now looks like this:

McCutchen has hit better than .325 (in 2012) and posted a slugging percentage better than .550 before (also in 2012). But the .990 OPS he’s carrying would be a new career best by close to 40 points, and you can trace that to the most-impressive .437 OBP that McCutchen is rocking.

That’s as good a place as any to start our investigation into how McCutchen has improved this year.

Take one look at McCutchen‘s OBP, and you might conclude that he’s been walking more often.

Indeed he has been. After never walking in more than 13.1 percent of his plate appearances coming into this year, according to FanGraphs, McCutchen is walking in 16.2 percent of his plate appearances. With 50 walks, he’s already over halfway to his 2013 total of 78.

Rather than an accident, consider this a product of McCutchen finally accepting how he’s been treated for years.

Via FanGraphs, here’s a table that shows how often McCutchen has chased pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing%) relative to how many pitches he’s seen inside the strike zone (Zone%) since 2010:

Every year since 2010, McCutchen has seen a smaller percentage of pitches in the strike zone. And even through his MVP season, his response had been to go chasing after more and more pitches. In doing so, he was incentivizing pitchers to keep staying out of the zone.

Things have changed this year. McCutchen has once again seen a decrease in pitches in the strike zone, but he’s chasing less often rather than continuing his pattern of chasing more. Instead of obliging pitchers when they’ve thrown balls, he’s taken them.

This obviously helps explain McCutchen‘s elevated walk rate. But besides that, it also helps explain his excellent hitting.

Besides more walks, McCutchen‘s improved discipline has also earned him a career-low first-pitch strike rate of 55.3 percent. He’s getting ahead in the count more often, which is his best hope of seeing good pitches to hit.

According to BaseballSavant.com, only 7.7 percent of the pitches thrown McCutchen‘s way have been inside the strike zone when he’s been behind in the count. Switch things to when he’s been ahead in the count, and the number jumps to 11.4 percent.

Which brings us to another thing about McCutchen‘s stupendous 2014 season: When he has seen pitches in the zone, he’s never been better at dealing with them.

In so many words: If you throw McCutchen a pitch inside the strike zone, that pitch will die.

What is it, exactly, that McCutchen is punishing inside the zone? Well, there’s really no better word than “everything.”

BaseballSavant.com tells us he’s hitting .385 against hard stuff in the zone, .360 against breaking stuff in the zone and a whopping .529 against off-speed stuff in the zone. All of those are career bests.

Granted, the slow stuff McCutchen has seen inside the strike zone hasn’t been as frequent as the hard stuff. If he was being overmatched by hard stuff in the zone, we’re not having this conversation.

As for why McCutchen hasn’t been overmatched against hard stuff in the zone, that would have something to do with how (A) he was an excellent fastball hitter to begin with, and (B) it seems he’s corrected a couple of previously subtle shortcomings.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball, here’s a look at McCutchen‘s averages against heaters in the zone through 2013 (him being a right-handed hitter, picture him on the left side of the box):

In terms of only heaters that found the zone, McCutchen didn’t have any real problem areas. But he was weaker in some spots, namely low and away and up and in.

Keep that in mind while you look at his averages against heaters in 2014:

Remember those two weak spots? Those have become strengths in 2014. Pitchers who have thrown heat either up and in or down and away have been punished for doing so.

That means that, even despite how he’s not dominating the high-outside corner like usual, McCutchen has the strike zone covered better than ever when it comes to hard stuff.

Here’s the short version of all this: McCutchen has renewed his focus on the strike zone, and any pitcher who goes in there basically has nothing to get him out with. Or, if you prefer the even shorter version: He’s more locked in than he’s ever been.

It’s saying something that, even after all this, there are still some things left to praise.

There’s how FanGraphs has McCutchen working on a career-best 1.074 OPS on balls to right field. There’s how he’s a perfect 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts. And while the advanced metrics are actually down on his defense this year, this video has another opinion of his D:

With McCutchen playing the way he is, you can’t help but think of the possibility of a second straight MVP award. His numbers certainly make it possible, and that the Pirates have turned things around with a 17-10 record in their last 27 games makes it even more possible.

If McCutchen does make it two straight MVPs, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reminds us that he’d be putting himself “in rarefied air, as only Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds (multiple times), Mike Schmidt, Dale Murphy, Joe Morgan and Ernie Banks have won consecutive MVP awards in the National League.”

I want to say that joining that list of names isn’t going to be easy, but I should probably save that sentiment for a guy who isn’t making it look as easy as McCutchen.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

 

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An Old Rivalry Renewed as Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies Get Testy

Prior to the integration of a third division in each league, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies rivalry was widely considered one of the best in baseball. When Pittsburgh moved to the National League Central Division in 1994, that rivalry began to diminish, as the two teams did not play each other as often. 

Now, it is looking like that rivalry may be heating up again.

In an exhibition game Sunday afternoon between these two teams, five batters were hit by pitches. The bean-ball war began in the third inning, when Pirates’ second baseman Neil Walker was plunked. In the bottom half of the inning, Phillies slugger John Mayberry Jr. was hit by pitch. 

In the fifth inning, Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon was brought in from the bullpen, and that was when things got heated.  After a two-out single off the bat of Walker, Papelbon’s first pitch was a high and tight fastball to reigning most valuable player Andrew McCutchen.

McCutchen shook it off, got back in the box and hit his second single of the game. However, things were far from over, as Pirates reliever Bryan Morris nailed the first batter of the next inning on his first pitch. 

According to a report from Ben Walker of the Associated Press, veteran umpire Tom Hallion turned to both benches and said managers Clint Hurdle and Ryne Sandberg, “Are you done now?” 

While spring training games do not matter in the standings, athletes are still competitors, and there is nothing better than watching two rivals play each other. 

However, there is no reason to be throwing pitches at each other, as there is serious risk to injury there.  In three meetings this spring, Pittsburgh pitchers have plunked eight Philadelphia batters. 

Often when two teams feud, the best batter is typically the target to be thrown at. That was the case yesterday for both Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen, both of whom are integral pieces to the lineup.   

This spring, McCutchen is batting .560 in 25 at-bats, as he is showing no signs of slowing down following his MVP season in 2013. That is why the Pirates must be very careful in how they pitch to other teams. 

Any sort of prolonged injury could be detrimental to the Pirates’ lineup, as McCutchen is the main driving force in front of power-hitting third baseman Pedro Alvarez. While it is great to see his teammates protecting him by retaliating against opposing hitters, it is also adding more fuel to the fire. 

Rivalries are good for sports, but there was no excuse for what occurred in this game, especially considering the fact that the game had no meaning in the standings. Players still play with passion regardless of the time of year, but they must handle their emotions differently from how they did Sunday. 

It will be interesting to see how commissioner Bud Selig will handle this situation going forward. Either suspensions or fines should be given, as throwing at a batter in spring training is just as dangerous as doing so in the regular season, especially when pitchers are buzzing fastballs by batters’ heads. 

The Pirates and Phillies will face each other three more times before the regular season begins. On March 22, the Pirates will be the host while Philadelphia will play host in the last two games of spring training. 

The rebirth of this Pennsylvania rivalry would be great for baseball, and we will see how things play out throughout the season. However, putting other players in danger should not be tolerated or condoned by anyone in the world of sports. 

 

*Statistics Courtesy of Associated Press

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2014 National League MVP: Prematurely Listing the Top 10 Candidates

With the candidates for the American League MVP Award essentially determined already (Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera), let’s turn our attention to the National League. The award is wide open this year with no clear favorite standing out.

Who will claim 2014’s National League Most Valuable Player Award? You can be sure it will be one of these players.

 

All statistics are courtesy of baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com, unless otherwise noted.

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What the Future Holds for 2013 MLB MVPs Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen

If you see Miguel Cabrera and Andrew McCutchen walking around, they might be comporting themselves a little differently. Chest puffed out. Semi-smug grin. Bouncy steps.

If so, well, who can blame them? Awards tend to do that to people.

If you missed Thursday’s news, Cabrera and McCutchen were named the Most Valuable Players for their respective leagues: Miggy for the American League and ‘Cutch for the National League. It wasn’t particularly close either, as Miggy easily outpaced Mike Trout and ‘Cutch comfortably held off Paul Goldschmidt.

While Trout (especially) and Goldschmidt did have strong cases, neither Cabrera nor McCutchen was a truly outrageous selection. Cabrera led the American League in average, on-base percentage and slugging to help the Detroit Tigers to the AL Central crown. McCutchen hit over .300 and notched his third straight 20/20 season to help lead the Pittsburgh Pirates to their first playoff berth in two decades. 

But it’s in the past now. A good question to help pass the time is what the future holds for both of the 2013 MVPs. Where are Cabrera and McCutchen going from here?

We’ll tackle them one at a time, starting with Cabrera.

 

For Miguel Cabrera

You know you’re talking about a truly great year when an amazing hitter manages to outdo himself.

That’s what Cabrera did in 2013. He entered the year as a .318/.395/.561 career hitter and proceeded to hit .348/.442/.636. Only his OBP wasn’t a new career high, and he also set new career highs in OPS+ and, according to FanGraphs, wRC+ and WAR.

Whether or not Cabrera can keep doing his thing is not a matter that requires pondering his skill set. He’s proven himself many times over as an ideal hitter. Great plate discipline, excellent plate coverage, an extraordinary ability to put his bat on the ball, easy-as-it-comes power and so on.

However, there is still a question mark hanging over the notion of how much longer Cabrera can keep it up. It just has more to do with his health, his age and all the mileage he’s covered.

We all know what happened to Miggy down the stretch in 2013. He battled abdominal and groin injuries for much of the second half, and by the end of the year he just wasn’t himself anymore. He hit a respectable .284 with a .396 OBP in his final 25 games but with only two extra-base hits. He was able to pop a couple homers in October but was overmatched on anything hard that he had to reach for.

It all felt like a reality check. Cabrera was an iron man up until 2013, playing in at least 150 games every year between 2004 and 2012. His injuries ultimately forced him to miss that mark in 2013.

Now, Cabrera did have surgery to repair the groin injury that plagued him toward the end of the year. The word is that he should be ready for spring training. And if there’s a bright side to the Tigers getting ousted from the postseason when they did, it’s that Cabrera didn’t risk a more serious injury by playing in as many as eight more playoff games.

But still you wonder. Cabrera will be 31 years old in April and has already played in 1,660 career games and logged over 7,000 plate appearances. That’s an awful lot of action.

Historically a lot of action, in fact. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Cabrera is one of only 17 players in history with as many as 7,000 plate appearances through the age of 30.

Most of the other 16 didn’t do quite so well in the years following their age-30 seasons. I used FanGraphs to pull up their wRC+ totals through their age-30 seasons, and then compared those numbers to what they did over the next three seasons (31-33). 

The comparison looks like this:

The players who are highlighted are the ones whose offensive performances declined in the 31-33 window. Count ’em up, and 11 out of 16 players are highlighted. Not exactly an encouraging percentage.

A definitive sign that doom awaits Cabrera?

Not necessarily. There’s always a chance that Miggy will be an exception to the rule, a la Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Alex Rodriguez, Al Kaline and Robin Yount. And because his performance itself had never been better than what it was in 2013, Cabrera could obviously be standing on shakier ground.

A sharp decline, however, is a possibility that needs to be taken seriously. We know that Miggy has an awful lot of miles on his body, and we know that said body finally broke down as 2013, his 11th season in the big leagues, wore on.

We also know that Miggy‘s at an age when declines have been known to happen even regardless of workload.

According to research done by Jeff Zimmerman for Beyond the Box Score, most hitters are already declining rapidly by the time they hit their 30s. Zimmerman went on to do further research on star hitters (i.e. Cabrera) for FanGraphs, and what he found is that even Hall of Famers have tended to go into steep declines upon hitting their 30s.

For what it’s worth, disaster probably isn’t awaiting Cabrera in 2014. In fact, the Steamer projection system (via FanGraphs) sees his 2014 season being a lot like his 2013 season:

As good as his 2013 season? Nope, but still outstanding. At the least, it is encouraging that Steamer sees a wRC+ higher than Cabrera’s career mark. 

So my advice is to not take Cabrera’s 2014 season for granted, as there’s a decent chance it will be his last great year. He’ll be 32 in 2015, which is something of a frightening number. Guys like Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Albert Pujols all got reality checks in their age-32 seasons. Josh Hamilton just did in his own age-32 season.

Cabrera’s recent injury troubles, the history of heavy-workload-before-the-age-of-30 guys and the aging curves of star hitters suggest that he could well be next in line.

 

For Andrew McCutchen

Who’s in for a different sort of discussion? One that’s a bit more optimistic?

You? Good. Because that’s what we’re in for here with McCutchen‘s future.

McCutchen is different from Cabrera in a couple ways. He’s several years younger, for one, as he just turned 27 in October and is only through his age-26 season. Whereas Cabrera is likely nearing the end of his prime, McCutchen is still in the thick of his own.

The other difference with McCutchen, however, is that with him it’s still possible to be curious as to what sort of hitter he really is. He went from being a .276/.365/.458 hitter in his first three seasons to being a .322/.402/.531 hitter in the last two. That’s quite the leap, so we can still look at him and ask, “Yeah, but is this really who he is?”

Given what McCutchen has going for him, I’d say yes. 

McCutchen didn’t hit for as much power in 2013 as he did in 2012, but that was bound to happen. He hit a career-high 31 homers in 2012 despite a career-low 34.3 FB%, according to FanGraphs. Factor in his home ballpark, the power-suppressing PNC Park, and his 19.9 HR/FB rate just didn’t add up.

Things essentially normalized for McCutchen in 2013. His FB% stayed steady at 34.8 percent, and the 12.4 HR/FB he posted looked a lot like his 12.2 HR/FB in 2011 and his career HR/FB of 12.3.

In terms of power, this is more than likely the real McCutchen. He’s a 20-homer guy rather than a 30-homer guy. A guy with above-average power rather than a guy with well-above-average power.

And that’s OK. McCutchen just won an MVP with simply above-average power, largely because he didn’t lose any of his hitting prowess. His on-base percentage increased from .400 in 2012 to .404, and the only reason his batting average dropped from .327 to .317 was because his BABIP went from .375 to .353.

And based on how he actually hit balls, he probably didn’t deserve that. McCutchen‘s contact habits had never been more BABIP-friendly.

Using batted ball data from FanGraphs, here’s a chart:

Fly balls are bad for BABIP. Ground balls are better, but line drives are better still. What McCutchen did in 2013 was keep his fly-ball habit steady while trading in some ground balls for line drives.

You can also see that his LD% is on an upward trajectory, which is good. What’s more, Brooks Baseball can show that his LD/BIP (line drives per balls in play) in 2013 skyrocketed on hard, breaking and off-speed pitches. He was hitting everything on a line.

This will do for an encouraging trend. If McCutchen keeps it up, perhaps he’ll get a BABIP he deserves in 2014 and beyond. If not, he should at least be able to keep the hits coming as frequently as he did in 2013.

If there’s another thing that bears watching, it’s how McCutchen is being pitched and how he’s adjusting to how he’s being pitched. 

One thing to know about McCutchen is that he’s an outstanding fastball hitter, as Brooks Baseball says he owns a .318 career average and a .224 ISO (Isolated Power) against hard stuff. He’s also very good at making contact within the zone with a career Z-Contact% of 87.8 percent, according to FanGraphs.

As such, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that McCutchen has been seeing fewer fastballs and, not so coincidentally, fewer pitches in the strike zone:

McCutchen has certainly earned this kind of treatment. But as long as it keeps up, his plate discipline is going to be of paramount importance. He can’t let himself be beat by pitchers’ pitches.

To this end, things could be going worse. Here’s another chart:

Shown here are the amount of pitches outside the strike zone McCutchen is swinging at and how many he’s making contact with. One trend is that he’s been hacking away at more pitches outside the strike zone. In 2013, however, he made contact with more pitches outside the zone. And on those, Brooks Baseball can show that he did alright. 

While McCutchen did go after more pitchers’ pitches in 2013, he was good enough to make it worth his while. And besides, it’s not like he’s really developed a “problem” with hacking at pitches out of the zone. Because his O-Swing% in 2013 was 27.9 and the league average was 31.0, he still has better-than-average plate discipline. 

So McCutchen‘s power? Not as good as it was in 2012, but still there. His hitting? It was better than ever in 2012 and was at least as good, if not even better, in 2013.

Elsewhere, McCutchen shouldn’t be in danger of losing his physical prowess any time soon. Both his bat speed and his running speed should be sticking around for a few more years, which is good because he’ll need the latter to continue to come in handy on the basepaths and out in center field.

Whether or not McCutchen has another MVP in his future is something I can’t tell you. There are too many variables at work there. But he was an MVP-caliber player in 2012, was again in 2013, and there are few reasons to think he won’t be again and again and again.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

 

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