Kuzul

Marco Scutaro was the “highlight” signing of 2009’s offseason. For those who are true fans and/or have played the game, you know that he was not the big solution. In fact, he should never have been signed in the first place. He is simply overpaid and overrated. If the Red Sox did want to sign him it should have been at a much cheaper annual salary. 

Fans were becoming increasingly frustrated with the product being put on the field. No disrespect to Boston‘s finest, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkillis, Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia but the fans simply did not feel that the overall product being presented to them correlated to the ticket prices they had to pay (the highest in all of baseball). 

2010’s offseason was different. This offseason the Boston Red Sox were very busy and rightfully so. It is thought across the MLB that the Red Sox and the Phillies were the two teams that improved their teams the most this offseason. The Red Sox signed All-Star veterans Adrian Gonzalez (formerly of the San Diego Padres) and Carl Crawford (formerly of the Tampa Bay Rays). The Phils bolstered their starting pitching by signing Roy Halladay (formerly of the Toronto Blue Jays) and Cliff Lee (formerly of the Texas Rangers).

My question to you is…which player is better out of those the Red Sox signed and why? Is it the new Boston Left Fielder, speedy Carl Crawford or is it the always reliable, defensive machine Adrian Gonzalez?

Carl Crawford has tremendous speed, solid outfield play, a great bat and it seems like the only thing he can’t do is fly. Adrian Gonzalez is not quite as mobile but has more pop with his bat and is probably an even better defender at his position (1B) than Crawford is at his (LF). Gonzalez does not have much speed but he has a detailed goatee which gives him extra brownie points.

Gonzalez’s goatee aside and being completely serious, Carl Crawford seems to be the better overall player. It will be interesting to see them play on the same team as they should fuel one another’s game and they will likely have career years in 2011.

It’s an exciting time to be a Boston Red Sox fan.

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Every year, there seems to be some trendy prediction that everyone loves to make before the season. For example, last year, everybody (myself included) seemed to think the Mariners were looking like a playoff team. Or the year before that, when several people were convinced that the Royals had a shot to be that year’s Rays. Granted, sometimes, these risky, yet trendy picks do actually work out, such as two years ago, when several writers were picking the Rays to be 2008’s “this year’s Rays team” before we actually had that term (because, you know, that was the year it first happened). In any case, I have been seeing a couple of predictions recurring much more than they should be for 2011, and I just want to be the person with enough foresight to say why they won’t happen before they happen. Because I pointed these out, they’ll probably all happen just to prove me wrong, but nonetheless, I will begin.

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During this last off-season, the Red Sox made major moves to put the team in a better position as World Series contenders. 

The release of third baseman Adrian Beltre and the signing of all-star outfielder Carl Crawford headline an array of changes in Boston.

However, none may be bigger than the acquisition of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the San Diego Padres.

Gonzalez brings a powerful bat and reliable glove to the Red Sox along with a reputation as one of the league’s premier first basemen.

In his first season with the Red Sox, Gonzalez is poised for a huge season and here are the four reasons why he will put up MVP-type numbers in the 2011 season.

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When it comes to his lineup, Boston Red Sox Manager Terry Francona has a lot of difficult decisions to make. He was handed some of the best puzzle pieces around and was told to “Tetris” them together to the best of his ability.

Francona better invest in those extra big pencil erasers that you used to buy in elementary school. You know, the ones that fit onto the end of the writing utensil over the small eraser that’s already attached to the pencil. I think Tito will be going through quite a few of those.

Not only will he spend this Spring Training figuring out the Red Sox best lineup, but he must also figure out secondary lineups for certain pitchers (lefties or righties) and certain ballparks. In addition he will need to run scenarios in his head to see what he would switch around if, say Jacoby Ellsbury gets in a slump or Youkilis were to become injured. What would his back-up lineups look like?

What if they would need to call some players up? Who would be the most likely minor leaguer to make the trip to Fenway and where would they best be suited in this batting order? There is a lot on Tito’s plate right now, but I don’t think he would want it any other way.

It’s my job to figure out the best way for Francona to set the 2011 Boston Red Sox starting lineup and your job to tell me where I went wrong or right (I’ll always take positive reinforcement) in the comment section.

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Like the dawn of every baseball season, by now the fans of all 30 MLB teams—with the likely exception of the Kansas City Royals and the Pittsburgh Pirates—have managed to convince themselves that they have a chance this year. Hope springs eternal when every squad boasts identical 0-0 records. The spring of 2011 is no exception.

But for those of us loyal members of Red Sox Nation—I would say “card-carrying members,” but most of us are too savvy to fall for our sneaky front office’s money-laundering scheme—we know better. You see, 2011 is our year.

Yes, of course we say this every year, including one unfortunate dry stretch lasting longer than some countries’ lifespans. And yes, we pretty much have to win it all this year, as our annual payroll edges ever closer to $200 million.

Nevertheless, there is something magical dusting that Bostonian seaside air these days. The Celtics (first in their conference) and Bruins (second in theirs) are making a run at championship trophies again this season, after disappointing finishes for both teams last year. But the Hub is a baseball town first and foremost, and recent events have served only to strengthen that claim.

Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, the dynamic duo acquired in the offseason, have tilted the star-studded AL East decidedly in Boston’s direction once again. Are we favorites, as Mark Teixeira (he of the Yankees’ $207 million annual payroll) unconvincingly declared last month? Perhaps, perhaps not. But we are certainly among the most formidable contenders in a year in which baseball may once again lay claim to the title of “nation’s most beloved sport” as the NFL grapples with a possible lockout.

Heart-warming tales of inter-division camaraderie notwithstanding, Sox and Yankees fans know well enough to understand that, once the first pitch is thrown in Boston’s home opener against New York on April 8th, the gloves come off.

Bill Lee and Thurman Munson may be long gone from the diamond, and today’s players navigating a free-agency world may not resent their on-the-field rivals on a personal level anymore. But the fan frenzy continues unabated, and—as it always has—our enthusiasm will provide the spark to ignite another year of the nation’s most vaunted rivalry.

There will be no confetti pouring down in the Canyon of Heroes this fall, New Yorkers. There will only be the sound of silence, and the distant roar of a victory parade a few hours north on I-95.

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I get a few butterflies in the ol’ boilmaker when the Boston Red Sox throw a big time prospect into a trade. The butterflies turn into rabid raccoons when the Sox dump their entire farm team into a deal.

I love prospects. They are like your children in a way. They grow up in front of you, and before you even know it, they are making All-Star teams, start growing Lemmy Kilmister inspired facial hair and getting into fights with Manny Ramirez.

There’s a sense of pride in seeing someone who rose through your own farm system, especially as Red Sox fans. When a Red Sox prospect goes through the minor league ranks and reaches the Big Show, they tend to exhibit the qualities Red Sox fans look for in their players. Hard working grinders that aren’t afraid to get their uniforms dirty and show off the five o’clock shadow. This is also definitely true of the farmhands of the Empire, which would be a sweet band name.

Players who are brought up under the “Yankee Way,” epitomize what the Boss looked for in his players, a mastery of the fundamentals, while maintaining a clean shaven face.   

One argument that us Sox fans typically make when debating a fan of the New York Yankees is that the Sawx don’t “buy championships,” meaning we utilize our minor league system better than the Bombers. I’ve made that argument out of frustration, yet I know it to mostly be untrue.

The Yankees obviously had some blue chip prospects in the ’90s and are producing some again today. Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada were the first group, and the second group has Robinson Cano (still getting better), Brett Gardner (for his glove at least), Phil Hughes (has real upside but some question marks) and we can soon add Jesus Montero to the list.

However, they have also acquired big name players during their dynasty and outlier 2009 championship such as Wade Boggs, John Wetteland, Tino Martinez, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia to name a few.  

The Red Sox counter with Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon and Jacoby Ellsbury as their farm system stand outs, and we can add Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard to that list too.

However, the 2004 and 2007 Boston Red Sox had their share of big name free agents and players acquired in trades such as Manny, Johnny Damon, Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that though, regardless of what team is doing it. If you have the resources to go along with a competent enough front office, and the athletes have the desire to play for a new city, then why on Earth shouldn’t they be allowed to?

I made a similar argument in the column I wrote about LeBron James: if an athlete is unhappy with their situation, and if they can find ways to make it a better situation for themselves, then we shouldn’t crucify them for that. If you want to make the whole thing a television spectacle, however… 

I was a bit worried trading Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes for one player. All three of those guys (ranked as the first, third and sixth best prospects, respectively, by Baseball America) could be near-elite to elite major leaguers one day. The San Diego Padres most definitely got fair compensation. 

But, the Boston Red Sox acquired Adrian Gonzalez, the front runner for the 2011 MVP. As a result, the rabid raccoons got a day off. 

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Serious injuries are never good things for baseball players, but the extent to which health problems affect someone’s career depends a lot on the situation.

For example, a young player who still has time to recover before he enters his prime is likely to bounce back, and a guy in the middle of a long-term contract doesn’t have to worry about finding a new job right away.

But for talented stars entering free agency or to a lesser extent, their arbitration years, getting seriously hurt could end up costing them several million dollars. And for older players whose ability to maintain their current levels of performance, a bad injury could mean a forced retirement.

In this slideshow are the 10 MLB players who would have the most to lose if they were struck by serious injuries.

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Steven Goldman is the editor-in-chief of BaseballProspectus.com and the New York Times bestseller of “Baseball Prospectus 2011: The Essential Guide to the 2011 Baseball Season.”

Now in its 16th edition, this book offers “deadly accurate PECOTA projections” for more than 1,600 players and scouting reports on teams, players, prospects and managers. It’s considered an industry leader in the rapidly growing field of baseball statistics and is read by front offices across the country.  

Goldman recently took the time to speak with me about the new book and what fans and scouts alike can expect for the upcoming season.  

What got you into sabermetrics in the first place? How did you come to be the editor for Baseball Prospectus?

SG: “I first got into sabermetrics as a young teenager reading Bill James (the father of sabermetrics). I picked up his 1985 abstract and for me that unlocked a whole hidden game within the game made up of numbers and history.

It was fascinating to me that there’s a long continuity of players and that they’re all somehow interrelated, so I devoured every baseball book I could find. I realized that what gives numbers meaning is not just what players are doing, but what comparable players have done before.

I started off doing sports writing for the New York Sun and the YES Network. I grew up in New Jersey so I was always a big Yankee fan and decided to also start the ‘Pinstriped Bible’ blog and wrote about the Yankees and sometimes the Mets.

In 2005, I wrote a biography on Casey Stengel and for whatever reason it got the attention of some guys at BP and they contacted me and asked me to be their Rob Neyer (a disciple of Bill James). I told them ‘I can’t be your Rob Neyer, but I can be your Steven Goldman.’ I co-edited the 2006, 2007 and 2008 BP annuals and now here I am.” 

What’s the point of this book?

SG: “Baseball Prospectus is something that is read in every front office in baseball. It’s read by fantasy baseball fans and casual fans and pretty much everyone in between.

But we don’t want this to just be a dry reference, something you read once and throw away. We want it to be something people hold on to and look back on. We want it to be something people can argue with—not an end-all, be-all for baseball statistics but at least a major part of the conversation.”   

What are some of the differences between this year’s version and past versions?

SG: “We changed the way stats are presented so the book is a little more condensed this year. Past editions were massive, so we wanted to make the book trimmer without reducing content. So we increased the amount of writing we do on players by about 10 percent, and reduced the amount of stats we offer by about 10 percent.

We eliminated some pitching stats because we had better ones that were more accurate and because we wanted a streamlined product. It’s an ongoing process, though. Colin Wyers is our statistical guru and he’s in currently reevaluating all our stats to see what we can improve.”  

What are some of the current challenges facing sabermetrics?

SG: “The big issue is with how we evaluate defense because there’s a lot of bias in the data we have, particularly with each ballpark’s scorer. Until we get a system like PITCH f/x to track how fielders position themselves and move, defense is going to remain very subjective.

Right now, most defensive metrics rely on assumptions of what would have happened to the ball and where the fielder should be, rather than what actually happened in the game. So what we tend to do is look at several different defensive systems to try to get an overall picture of what’s happening.

Two other areas that need some work are bullpen building and managing. For relievers, there’s very little predictability because typically we’re dealing with such a small sample size. For managers, we’d like to be able to gauge how much impact on team performance a manager actually has.”

How does PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) work and what are some of its strengths and weaknesses as a metric?

SG: “PECOTA, invented by Nate Silver in 2002, works by running comparables to predict a player’s future performance. The system knows every player who has ever played baseball and the context in which they did it (their age, weight, size, etc). So we use this information and look at a player’s career arc to see how they progressed to determine both a short-term and long-term outlook.

Most projections give you just a snapshot of what a player might do, but PECOTA gives you percentiles on the best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario and where in between the player would likely end up. So what we present in the book is actually a weighted mean projection (one right in the center) that we feel is the most likely scenario.

However, it’s a conservative program because it’s looking for regression, so when a player has a peak season the system assumes that it’s a fluke and not an actual upgrade. This leads to some players being underrated.”    

Is Albert Pujols really worth the kind of money (10 years, $300 million) that he’s asking or do the projections say otherwise?

SG: “Players of his stature have maintained their value really well to an advanced age, so he’s less of a risk with that kind of contract. However, you can’t bet on that. It’s still a huge financial risk. It’s not smart to be on the hook for that much money to a player that old.

Teams today rationalize spending that kind of money by eating the last three or so years of the contract and prorating the early years, but either way it’s not a smart business decision.”

How much of a difference will playing at Fenway Park make for new Red Sox slugger Adrian Gonzalez?

SG: “Moving to anywhere but Petco would’ve given him a huge boost. Adrian should’ve been an annual 30-HR guy. Playing in a harder division may hold his numbers down a bit, but you can’t underestimate the impact Fenway can have.” 

Derek Jeter had one of the worst seasons of his career in 2010 and still roped the Yankees into giving him $51 million. What’s in store for Jeter in 2011 and long-term?

SG: “Jeter projects to perform roughly the same as he did in 2010. The problem he had last year was a reduction in bat speed that prevented him from being able to lift the ball off the ground, so he hit nothing but grounders. Not all players can play well into their 40’s and it would be a big surprise to see him maintain his pre-2010 production.

As far as defense, he really struggles going to his left. He’s never been a particularly strong defender and he’s only going to get worse at this point. He could shift position, but his bat won’t be good enough to carry him at anywhere but shortstop. I think he’ll retain enough of his value this year, but the Yankees are going to have to face the issue of where to put him sooner or later.”

Does the addition of Cliff Lee give the Philadelphia Phillies the best rotation in the history of the game? Who’s the X-factor?

SG: “It’s hard to compare their staff against other eras, but obviously on paper they look really, really good. Cliff Lee still has to show that he can come back from that injury and Cole Hamels still hasn’t peaked yet. Roy Oswalt also has some work to do if he wants to legitimize his Hall of Fame candidacy.”

The Kansas City Royals traded away their best player (Zack Greinke), but the return they got gave them the best farm system in all of baseball. Could they actually be good one day?

SG: “The problem with prospects is that they don’t always perform the way you expect. But there’s every chance that if they can give some of those guys a shot at the jobs then in a year or two the Royals could be a reasonably credible team. Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer both look like potential All-Stars.”

Give me one player or team that is going to surprise people this season.

SG: “The Orioles could be a .500 team if their pitching is consistent. They really improved their offense. I’m also excited to see what Adrian Gonzalez does outside of Petco and what Carlos Santana can do in a full season for the Indians.”

One player or team that will disappoint?

SG: “The Blue Jays aren’t quite ready to make the kind of noise that people think they will. The Rays are also going to fall off because they lost their entire bullpen in free agency. But they have some great pitching prospects and outfielder Desmond Jennings, so they have a chance to surprise some people.

Josh Hamilton won’t be the same ‘Superman’ kind of player, especially since he’s so injury prone. Also, a lot of people are assuming Jeter will bounce back, but he won’t.” 

What is the future of sabermetrics?

SG: “Before everything was about working with an imperfect or incomplete set of tools to infer what happens on the field. But now with special tools like PITCH f/x and HIT f/x we can know exactly what happened.

That’ll open up a whole new world for sabermetrics. The numbers can’t be disputed anymore. The future will be objective, with a realistic description of what’s happening as opposed to just interpretation.”  

For more information on Steven Goldman or the book, please visit the official Baseball Prospectus website. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This past calendar year has been nothing but heartbreak after heartbreak for New England sports fans.

(All 29 other sports regions/cities roll their eyes collectively).

We’re no Seattle or Cleveland, but these have been somewhat trying times for fans that have high standards for success.

A quick recap: The Red Sox didn’t make the playoffs due to freak injuries to their two best players; the Bruins blew a three game lead in the Eastern Conference semi-finals to a Philadelphia Flyers team made up of unwashed heathens; the Super Bowl favorite Patriots tanked in their first playoff game against the Jets; and the Celtics lose the NBA Finals game seven against the Lakers. Rough stuff.

Also, that NBA deadline deal which took Kendrick Perkins out of green was another unexpected occurrence that was unsettling, to say the least.  

And through all that, I’ve remained positive. Why, you ask?

Did you see who the Red Sox signed this offseason?

Honestly, I don’t think Boston was all that bad last season. Eric Patterson and Daniel Nava started more games than anyone should ever ask of them; John Lackey ate a whole lot of nachos; and Adrian Beltre really liked kicking people in the chest super hard.

Despite all that, they almost won 90 games last season. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz proved to be a fearsome one-two punch to build a rotation around; Jed Lowrie showed some real glimmers of being a versatile major league baseball player; and that Daniel Bard guy threw the ball wicked hahd, dude guy.

Now, everyone is healthy, and there are some fresh faces that make this team the clear favorite in the American League.  

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Late February. Optimism fills the air in Major League Baseball.

The reason?

Baseball is back.

Granted, it is only a lowly beginning. Late February is the time for spring training games in Arizona and Florida. The exhibition games, though it is good to see that baseball has returned, are just that: exhibition games.

Spring training is mostly optimistic because of the fact that it is the time of the year when everyone believes they have the chance.

Obviously, there are pretenders. I’m sorry Pittsburgh, but it doesn’t look like the Pirates will be resurrected anytime soon. Likewise for many other teams.

The Phillies, as ESPN would put it, are not pretenders, but contenders.

With arguably one of the strongest pitching rotations of all time, the Phightin’ Phils seem to many people the inevitable 2011 world champions. There is already talk on the Philadelphia FM sports radio station, 97.5 The Fanatic, that Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will have a statue of him erected outside of Citizens Bank Park.

That statement is incredibly premature, but it is not far-fetched to say that the Phillies are favorites to win the Fall Classic.

It will not happen.

I’ve been trying to take this thought over the air onto Into The Night, Tony Bruno’s weeknight radio show, but I’ve been repeatedly told that I am too young to get on the air. So I decided to take this matter to the BleacherReport community.

Anyway, the main weakness that the Phillies roster presents to me is the fact that there are many holes in the offense.

I am a Yankee fan, so I have been ragged on this offseason by the “Phillies Phans” because of the fact that the Phils nabbed the jewel of the free agent market, Cliff Lee, away from my Bombers. The argument that I fought back with on that matter is extremely relevant to the reason why the Phillies will not be, as Chase Utley might say, world bleeping champions come November.

That argument is this: while the Phillies may have put up the gaudiest offseason on paper, they had a bad one in the sense that they did not acquire what they needed to avoid repeating the disappointing end that the 2010 season had for them.

Think about it.

The Giants, in the entire NLCS, scored an average of 3.3 runs per game. That is not much compared to the league average, which sits around four. This is an indication that pitching was not the problem.

The Phillies just could not hit with the Giants. That was with a good right-handed bat in the lineup, Jayson Werth, whose signing with the Washington Nationals will prove a decent to severe detriment to Philadelphia’s lineup. They will be exposed by left-handed pitching.

Compared to the rest of the NL East, getting to the playoffs should not present much of a problem for the Phils. The regular season is a test of depth and pitching throughout a 162-game grind. I predict that Philadelphia will take the division easily, posting at least 95 wins.

However, with that being said, the postseason is filled with teams that boast excellent pitching staffs, making the playoffs a battle of the team that can hit. The team that can effectively hit and manufacture runs consistently has the best shot at glory.

The team, as of now, that should win it all is the Boston Red Sox. Getting Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis back from injury-ridden 2010 seasons combined with excellent pickups Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford will help the offense emerge as the best in the majors. Combine that a pitching staff lead by John Lester which, although maybe not as prodigious as the Phils’, is excellent and the Red Sox should be the favorites.

Now, of course, nothing is ever for sure in the world of baseball. The injury bug can bite and midseason acquisitions can shake up the balance. For now though, the Phillies must add a consistent right-handed bat to their lineup to get them over the hump.

They’re right there, yet they need one extra push. For now, my prediction is a 101-61 record, an NL East crown, but a loss in five games to the Red Sox in the World Series.

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