Tag: 2013 MLB Playoffs

Red Sox Prove They Have the Arms to Match Tigers

A funny thing has happened in the American League Championship Series that doesn’t get talked about enough: Boston’s pitching staff is really, really good. 

The latest evidence of that came in Detroit on Tuesday with John Lackey matching Justin Verlander pitch for pitch over 6.2 shutout innings before giving way to the dynamic bullpen trio of Craig Breslow, Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara. 

The Red Sox won the game 1-0 behind Lackey’s dazzling effort and the power of Mike Napoli’s bat. Napoli made his first hit of the 2013 ALCS count, driving a Verlander pitch over the wall in left center with one out in the seventh inning. 

All the talk leading up to and during this series revolved around Detroit’s starting pitching against Boston’s offense. It was completely warranted because the Tigers led all of baseball with 981 strikeouts from their starters, 102 more than second-place Cleveland.

The Red Sox had the best offense in baseball, leading the league with 853 runs and .795 OPS. When you have a battle between two Goliaths, it is only natural to focus on that. It also didn’t hurt that Detroit starters Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer threw 13 innings with just two hits and one run allowed with 25 strikeouts in the first two games of the series.  

A lot of attention was devoted to figuring out what happened to the Red Sox offense, yet no one paid as much attention to what the pitching staff has been doing. Clay Buchholz had a bad sixth inning in Game 2, no one can deny that. But aside from one blip on the radar, the Tigers have scored just two runs in the other 26 innings. 

We tend to overlook Boston’s pitching because the offense is so good and overall there was nothing that jumped out at you about this bunch. Here are the regular season totals and ranks for the Red Sox pitching staff this season. 

There certainly are individual pieces you can single out. The wizardry of Koji Uehara immediately springs to mind, but Boston’s best ranking in any major category is seventh in strikeouts. 

What this ALCS has shown us, what we should have seen before, is the Red Sox boast a really strong, deep pitching staff capable of beating any team in baseball. 

What regular season numbers do is paint a picture of everything that happened in 162 games. That’s not what you are going to get in the playoffs.

Opposing teams are only going to see the best starters and relievers their opponent has in October, unless there is a game so out of control a manager can afford to use someone in mop-up duty. 

The Red Sox top three starters are, in no particular order, Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. Lester pitched like a star in the second half of the season after struggling with a 4.58 ERA in the first half. The southpaw had a 2.57 ERA in 87.2 innings after the All-Star break and 74-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio. 

Being the ace of a staff carries certain responsibilities, one that Lester wasn’t meeting since 2011. He has regained that elite form, with the results showing through 14 innings this postseason with nine hits, four walks, three earned runs and 11 strikeouts. 

Lester may not have had a no-hitter going in Game 1 of the ALCS, but the only run he gave up came on a blooper from Jhonny Peralta in the sixth inning. He wasn’t getting smacked around in that game, just trying to take care of business long enough for the offense to get going. 

Buchholz looked like a Cy Young contender when he was healthy enough to pitch this season. His 1.74 ERA was the best in baseball among pitchers with at least 100 innings. (He didn’t have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.)

After being a pariah during his first three years with the Red Sox, including a missed year in 2012 due to Tommy John surgery, Lackey looks like he did during his days with the Angels. He did stumble in the second half, though, with a 4.35 ERA and 12 home runs allowed in 89 innings pitched. 

Yet whatever plagued him before is gone now. Lackey went into Detroit, in front of a raucous crowd waiting for him to make a mistake against Verlander, and racked up eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings while giving up just four hits and no walks. 

Then there is the performance of the bullpen. The Red Sox don’t have the deepest stable of relief pitchers in baseball. Far from it. They lost three key pieces— Andrew Miller, Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan—for the season earlier in the year and left a lot of questions in their wake. 

Manager John Farrell put together a makeshift group of relievers, landing on Uehara, Breslow and Tazawa for late-inning, high-leverage situations. All three of them played huge roles in the Game 3 victory. 

Breslow relieved Lackey in the seventh inning and got Omar Infante to ground into a force out after walking Alex Avila to put runners on first and second with two outs. 

Tazawa came on in the eighth inning after Breslow struck out Jose Iglesias and walked Austin Jackson. Torii Hunter singled to right field, bringing Miguel Cabrera to the plate with runners on first and third. 

No worries. 

Tazawa struck Cabrera out with mid-90s fastballs on the outer half of the plate, where Miggy isn’t capable of driving them as well as he normally would because of his injured groin. 

Uehara came in to strike out Prince Fielder with that patented split-finger fastball. He then got out of the ninth inning relatively unscathed, inducing a double play ball from Peralta before striking out Alex Avila. 

That’s nothing new for Uehara, who has been untouchable all year with 33 hits and nine walks allowed against 101 strikeouts in 74.1 innings. Tazawa has rebounded from a dreadful September when he had a 6.48 ERA to throw 3.1 scoreless innings this postseason. Breslow doesn’t overpower hitters with stuff, yet has managed to walk a tightrope all season without missing a lot of bats. 

The Red Sox have taken control of this series because of their pitching staff. In fact, aside from David Ortiz’s grand slam in the eighth inning of Game 2, the Red Sox still haven’t done much of anything with their bats. 

Verlander held the offense to four hits over eight innings and struck out 10, bringing Boston’s total through three games to a staggering 43 (including Jose Veras’ strikeout of Dustin Pedroia after relieving Verlander). 

There will be no shortage of great pitchers the Red Sox face in this series. They have another one on  Wednesday when Doug Fister takes the mound. 

However, the challenge isn’t whether the Red Sox or Tigers powerful lineups are finally going to have the breakout game everyone is waiting for. It’s figuring out which pitching staff will be the first to blink. 

This series is far from over, but the Red Sox should feel a lot better about where things are at because they have taken the best punch the Tigers have to offer and come out with a 2-1 lead. That’s a testament to the depth of this pitching staff and the job they have done through three games. 

While the Tigers’ starters can generate all the headlines, the Red Sox are comfortable sitting back and letting their performance do the talking.

So far, so good.

 

 

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. 

If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me up on Twitter with questions or comments. 

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Mike Napoli Goes Yard off of Justin Verlander in the 7th Inning of the ALCS

Justin Verlander threw six scoreless innings before the Boston Red Sox scored off of this Mike Napoli home run in the top of the seventh inning.

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Would a Third Title in 8 Years Make St. Louis Cardinals a Dynasty?

The St. Louis Cardinals are an exemplary franchise, but are they on the verge of becoming a dynastic one?

The organization is among the best in baseball, if not all sports, when it comes to recent success, decision-making and player development. All of that has brought about 10 trips to the postseason—including a current spot in this year’s National League Championship Series—and two world championships since 2000.

The pair of titles came during an even more recent window, in 2006 and 2011, and with a chance at what would be a third in only eight seasons, an argument could be made that St. Louis is not only the best club in Major League Baseball but also a dynasty.

Of course, that brings up a key question: Just what is a dynasty?

That’s not necessarily the easiest query to answer. There is, on some level, an objective approach to defining a true dynasty in baseball. That would be a certain number of World Series wins over a specific period of time. Think something like: At least three titles over no more than five years. The actual numbers may vary depending on who’s doing the defining, but there should be some standard.

On another level, though, there’s also a subjective approach to dubbing a team a dynasty, right? This is not all that different from using the sniff test—that initial yes-or-no gut reaction—to determine whether a player is or isn’t a Hall of Famer.

So how does all of this apply to the St. Louis Cardinals exactly? Well, it’s a way to bring them into this dynasty discussion. And that’s what it is in this case—a discussion rather than a definitive yes-or-no answer.

Obviously, if we’re taking the above by-the-numbers approach, then the Cardinals aren’t a slam-dunk dynasty if they do go all the way this season. Three titles in an eight-year stretch is darn impressive, but it’s not three in five. Again, it doesn’t have to be specifically three-in-five (or any other ratio), but what St. Louis could reach to earn the “d-word” label.

The other thing about this 2013 club is that even though it hasn’t been that long since the first championship in 2006, this current version just feels different, doesn’t it? That’s where the gut test comes into play.

Among Cardinals who were on the 2006 team, only right-hander Adam Wainwright and catcher Yadier Molina remain. (Yes, Chris Carpenter, the longtime ace, is still technically a part of the franchise, but he’s more of a figurehead than a participant at this stage due to injury.)

To that point, while each of the past two World Series-winning Cardinals teams consisted of a collection of quality, All-Star-caliber players, at the heart of it all was Albert Pujols, an iconic superstar who was easily identifiable with St. Louis (until he left for Southern California, that is).

With Pujols no longer around, the aura around the Cardinals has changed. Some might argue it’s actually changed for the better—and they might be right—but regardless, it has changed. 

As much as this season’s success has been driven by veterans like Wainwright and Molina, as well as injured first baseman Allen Craig and outfielder Carlos Beltran (who came to town after the 2011 win, by the way), it’s really built on young breakout players like Matt Carpenter, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Matt Adams and Trevor Rosenthal. None of those youngsters, it’s worth mentioning, have been a part of a World Series winner—or even a World Series—yet.

Change goes beyond just the roster, too. Gone are longtime manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan, replaced by Mike Matheny and Derek Lilliquist. Matheny was a part of the organization for the 2011 title, and Lilliquist was for both 2006 and 2011 but not in their current roles, meaning it still would be different this time around.

All of those changes, folks, are a pretty compelling argument against potentially dubbing St. Louis a dynasty this year. If you still find yourself believing the 2013 Cardinals would have to be considered as such, though, should they go on to win the title later this month, ask yourself this: Would the Boston Red Sox be a dynasty if they’re the last team standing in October?

Fact is, the Red Sox are a lot like the Cards: Both franchises have won two titles recently enough, and each has the opportunity to make it three inside of a decade. And yet, even David Ortiz would agree that the roster, regime, makeup and mentality of this year’s Red Sox are nothing at all like the 2004 iteration, those self-proclaimed “Idiots,” or even the 2007 champs, for that matter. (Well, except maybe for the beards.)

Perhaps, though, instead of asking the question posed in the title—would a World Series victory this year make the Cardinals a dynasty—we should be marveling at how seamlessly general manager John Mozeliak and his cohorts have handled this organization’s transition in the past few years. You know, all the changes, alterations and variations spelled out above.

After all, while a third title in eight years might not necessarily make the Cardinals a dynasty, the franchise is set up better than any other in the sport to take a shot at getting there in the future.

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St. Louis Cardinals’ David Freese Says He Is Good to Go

David Freese left Game 3 of the NLCS between the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers Monday with a sore right calf muscle. The loss of Freese left the Cardinals without one of their most prolific postseason bats at a time when their offense was at a historic low.

Freese left Game 3 after driving a base hit in the fifth inning and moving up to second on a single by rookie first baseman Matt Adams. Mike Matheny then made the decision to pull Freese from the game and utilize Daniel Descalso to pinch run and take over in the field. Steve Gilbert of MLB.com spoke with Freese after the game:

It was just during that AB, then I took off running and it was pretty tight. It just kind of tightened up on me, and obviously Mike felt it was necessary to take me out just in case we needed someone to score.

The severity of the injury was downplayed very early and Gilbert reported Freese was day-to-day with his injury. Gilbert continued to share the status of the Cardinals’ third baseman later in the same article:

“I think it’s just tight,” Freese said. “I don’t think I strained it too bad, but we’ll check it out tomorrow. I hope I can play tomorrow, but we’ll check it out.”

Said Matheny: “Right now, it’s day to day, and we expect him to be ready to go.”

Freese reported to the park for workouts Tuesday and Frank Cusumano, a reporter from St. Louis NBC affiliate KSDK, confirmed via Twitter that Freese felt ready to go.

The news is good for the Cardinals. Their offense has struggled early on in the series. Despite Freese‘s lack of production, backup Daniel Descalso offers very little help. Descalso is known more for his defensive ability and versatility than his presence at the plate. Alternatively, the Cardinals could turn to rookie Kolten Wong at second base and shift Matt Carpenter over the third base, his natural position. Once again, though, this offers little offensive relief, as Wong has failed to discover his stroke at the major league level.

Freese has offered many memorable October moments in his short career. His presence in the lineup gives the team a feeling of capturing another of those moments at any time.

The Cardinals are in need of one of those moments.

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Are the St. Louis Cardinals Wasting Potential NLCS X-Factor Shelby Miller?

It’s difficult to imagine where the St. Louis Cardinals would be without their rookie pitchers.

Between Carlos Martinez, Seth Maness, Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist and Michael Wacha, the Cardinals’ young hurlers have individually and collectively played a crucial role in the team’s success this October.

However, one very important name has been absent from the mix: Shelby Miller.

Miller wasn’t just one of the top rookie pitchers during the first half of the season, he was one of the top pitchers in the game. Over his first 18 starts, the 22-year-old posted a 2.92 ERA and .225 opponent batting average with 112 strikeouts in 104.2 innings.

The Cardinals wisely offered Miller additional rest surrounding the All-Star break after he showed signs of wearing down in late June and into July. Although he had an up-and-down second half, the right-hander completed the final month of the season on a positive note by going 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA over five starts.

Miller’s season highlight came on May 10 in his home start against the Colorado Rockies, when he surrendered a leadoff single to Eric Young Jr. before retiring the next 27 hitters in order.

Since the beginning of the postseason, however, Miller essentially has been a non-factor for the Cardinals. With fellow rookie Wacha thriving in the starting rotation after a strong finish to the regular season, manager Mike Matheny relegated Miller to the bullpen for the NLDS, mostly due to his season-long struggles against the Pittsburgh Pirates

But with the beginning of the NLCS against the Dodgers, it seemed as though Miller stood a chance at starting one the latter games of the series, especially when considering right-hander Lance Lynn’s struggles in the NLDS. Starting Game 2 of the series against the Pirates, Lynn allowed five runs on seven hits over 4.1 innings as the Cardinals dropped the contest, 7-1.

Besides the aforementioned start, Lynn did pitch well out of bullpen in Game 1 of the NLCS, picking up the win in the 13-inning affair while tossing two scoreless frames.

While Miller has gotten loose in the bullpen on several occasions this October and seemed destined to get in several games, the 22-year-old right-hander has made only one appearance in the postseason thus far.

In Game 2 of the NLDS, the same game in which the Bucs chased Lynn after only 4.1 innings, Miller logged one inning out of the Cardinals bullpen, allowing one run (a solo home run) while notching a strikeout.

Even though Miller is as well rested as he’s been this season, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny decided to go with Lynn and his experience for Game 4 of the NLCS.

During Monday’s press conference, Matheny expanded on the decision:

Experience is one of your greatest teachers if you’re paying really close attention. And Lance is a guy that’s paying attention. He’s a competitor. His stuff is right. When he’s throwing the ball well, it’s fun to watch him. So hopefully he goes out there with a lot of confidence.

It’s hard to blame Matheny for going with what’s worked to this point. Plus, it’s not as though Miller helped his case to start in the series after two uninspiring starts against the Dodgers during the regular season. His second start lasted only two pitches, as he was forced to leave the game after getting smoked by a comeback line drive on the second pitch of the game.

In his only non-two-pitch start against the Dodgers during the regular season, Miller allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out three batters over 5.1 innings. Between both outings, Dodger hitters batted .296/.367/.481 against the right-hander.

Despite his lack of success against the Dodgers and limited workload in October, I can’t help but think that the Cardinals are underutilizing Miller.

When he’s at his best, he has proven to be capable of shutting down the game’s top offenses. During the regular season, 12 of Miller’s 31 starts were of the quality variety, and he struck out six-plus batters on 15 occasions.

Furthermore, Miller turned in six starts this year in which he pitched into the seventh inning. In those games, he posted a 6-0 record with a stellar 0.21 ERA and 48/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 43.1 innings.

Matheny seems to be reserving Miller as the team’s safety net in case one of its starters is chased from a game earlier than expected. If that scenario were to arise, then the talented rookie would undoubtedly serve as a weapon in the role.

However, if Lynn struggles in Game 4 against the Dodgers, then Matheny will be forced to consider starting Miller in his place should the Cardinals advance to the World Series.

Though Miller’s underuse this October may suggest he isn’t qualified to start a postseason, it’s more appropriate to view right-hander as the Cardinals’ non-literal ace in the hole.

The one knock on Miller is, as a pitcher who throws his fastball 70.82 percent of the time, per Brooks Baseball, he can be hittable when his command of the pitch isn’t sharp. The right-hander surrendered six or more hits in 13 starts this year and allowed 12 home runs—he gave up 20 home runs overall on the season—in those games.

However, every young hurler who throws mostly fastballs will be shelled on occasion. Therefore, it’s important to keep Miller’s success with the pitch this season in perspective.

According to Brooks Baseball’s PITCHf/x leaderboards (via Baseball Prospectus), Miller was one of four starting pitchers to throw more than 2,000 four-seam fastballs during the regular season. The others? Clayton Kershaw, Chris Tillman and Justin Verlander. Among those players, Miller ranked second with a .236 opponent batting average (against the fastball) and .387 opponent slugging percentage.

Even if Miller were to last only five or six innings in a start, he still has the potential to be highly effective and keep his team in the game. During the regular season, Miller rarely worked deep into his starts, exiting the game in the fifth or sixth innings 24 times. However, the right-hander managed to hold the opposition to three or fewer runs in 20 of those outings.

Plus, with the ongoing excellence of Cardinal relievers this October, there’s no reason for concern about handing the game to the bullpen in the sixth or seventh innings.

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Boston Red Sox Players Reportedly Upset Jhonny Peralta Allowed to Play in ALCS

According to baseball writer Peter Gammons, some Boston Red Sox players are upset about Jhonny Peralta‘s inclusion on Detroit’s postseason roster after a 50-game suspension for his connection to the Biogenesis scandal.

From early August through the last week of the regular season, Peralta accepted and served his suspension by Major League Baseball. When the 50 games were completed, it was up to his organization, the Detroit Tigers, whether to include him on the postseason roster.

Unlike the San Francisco Giants’ decision to leave Melky Cabrera home last October under similar circumstances, Detroit chose to bring Peralta’s bat to the postseason party.

Thus far, the decision has paid major dividends. With a 1.200 OPS, four extra-base hits and six runs batted in, Peralta has been a difference-maker for Detroit against both Oakland and Boston. As the series continues in Detroit, Peralta’s ability to hit Red Sox pitching will continue to play a role in the outcome of this series, but the narrative around his inclusion in the ALCS should not be a story.

Simply put, any Boston player who publicly or privately complains about Peralta’s inclusion in this series is a hypocrite. Under the current CBA, players are eligible for the postseason roster if a suspension is completed prior to the start of play.

As Tigers manager Jim Leyland told Gammons, Detroit isn’t doing anything wrong, nor should the Tigers’ accomplishments be sullied if they continue to win baseball games this month.

“All we’re doing is abiding by the rules,” Leyland said.

Those came about through a ratified collective bargaining agreement between the Major League Baseball Players Association and MLB. Every member of the Red Sox roster is in the union, thus accepting of the rules and regulations they fought to bargain and earn.

Of course, this shouldn’t come as a surprise out of Boston. During a Yankees-Red Sox series in August, just weeks after Yankees slugger Alex Rodriguez‘s return to the field while appealing his 211-game suspension, John Lackey had this to say to The Boston Globe:

I’ve got a problem with it. You bet I do. How is he still playing? He obviously did something, and he’s playing. I’m not sure that’s right…It’s pretty evident he’s been doing stuff for a lot of years I’ve been facing him.

While the Rodriguez and Peralta situations are slightly different (Rodriguez was playing during a suspension through an appeal, while Peralta has already served his full suspension), the bottom line remains the same: The MLBPA argued for these rights. John Lackey and every other member of the Red Sox roster belongs to the MLBPA.

If they don’t like the rules, petition to change them during the offseason. If they think Rodriguez’s bat impacted the pennant race or Peralta’s current hot streak is changing the postseason, there are two simple and distinct solutions: Get them out at the plate or complain to the union at the appropriate time.

Although the Red Sox are easy to beat up here, this sentiment seems to be floating around the game, perpetuating the thinking that rule-breakers should be treated differently if the games they are participating in have extra meaning.

Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria had similar sentiments as Lackey in August, no doubt stemming from the fact that Rodriguez’s production could have cost Tampa a postseason spot. During an interview with Sports Illustrated‘s Jimmy Traina, Longoria said of Rodriguez’s return, “I don’t think it’s fair for the other teams, because I’m in the American League East.”

Not only are players like Lackey, Longoria and the unnamed Red Sox players questioning the merit of the CBA they ratified, they are admitting the only reason it matters is because the player in question is appearing in meaningful games. If the New York Mets have activated Jordany Valdespin after his 50-game, Biogenesis-related suspension was completed, it’s hard to believe anyone would have said a word.

Furthermore, a story like this wouldn’t have come out of Boston if a current member of the Red Sox’s 25-man roster was implicated in the Biogenesis scandal, served a suspension and returned. The same can be said for Longoria’s view if a suspension was handed down to one of his Tampa Bay teammates.

Inconvenience shouldn’t trump logic, but when it comes to baseball players attempting to justify a rule they put into place, anything goes.

The idea of suspended players returning and producing in October is uncomfortable for the sport, but consistent within the rules of the game right now. Until those rules change during a collectively bargained contract, stories and questions about Jhonny Peralta’s bat tainting or changing the Tigers’ run through October are nothing more than sour grapes.

 

Do the Red Sox have a valid point?

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Red Sox vs. Tigers: Keys for Detroit to Reassert ALCS Command in Game 3

Just two days ago, the Detroit Tigers blew a 5-0 lead and allowed the Boston Red Sox to pull even in the 2013 ALCS. Bouncing back from that type of devastating defeat is difficult to say the least.

Although Jim Leyland‘s club has the benefit of returning to the friendly confines of Comerica Park for Game 3 on Tuesday, there are several keys Detroit would do well to adhere to.

A positive mindset helps, and Leyland knows not to get too high or too low between how results can change in such a drastic way on a day-to-day basis in the MLB:

Considering the next three games are at home for the Tigers, a victory in the third game would recapture the momentum in their favor and make a 3-2 lead in the series realistic if and when the series heads back to Fenway Park.

Here is an overview of how Detroit can assert its will to overcome its most recent loss and right the ship in its bid to return to the World Series.

 

 

A 3rd Great Playoff Performance from Justin Verlander

 

It never hurts to have an American League Cy Young Award winner as the proverbial “ace in the hole.” Fortunately for Leyland and the Tigers, such is the case in giving Verlander the starting nod in Game 3.

Verlander didn’t have the best season, going 13-12 with a 3.46 ERA, but he’s been lights out this postseason.

The 30-year-old flamethrower fanned 21 hitters in 15 scoreless innings of work and won Detroit the decisive fifth game in the ALDS over the Oakland Athletics.

He should have a big advantage over his counterpart, John Lackey, who posted a 4.32 ERA after the All-Star break.

It’s also worth noting that during the regular season, Lackey went 4-10 with a 4.48 ERA on the road—more than two runs higher than what he posted in Boston.

If Verlander has anywhere close to his best stuff, he should be good for at least seven solid innings and double-digit strikeouts. Both seem feasible given Verlander’s recent form and that the Red Sox have struck out 32 times through the first two ALCS games.

It would be ideal for Verlander to save some strength if possible, since he could be deployed as a reliever later in the series should the Tigers be threatened with elimination.

 

 

More Production from Top of the Order

 

What would help the Tigers a lot is getting more out of their bats in the Nos. 1 and 2 slots from Austin Jackson and Torii Hunter.

The two have combined for a mere seven hits in 59 at-bats—good for a putrid average of about .119. That isn’t ideal when attempting to put together any kind of consistent offense, and it’s surprising for a team that finished second in the MLB in runs this year.

As renowned as Jackson and Hunter are for their defense in the outfield, it is vital that they get on track at the dish.

Hunter at least showed signs of life in smacking a double in Game 1, which put Detroit in position to get insurance in the top of the ninth.

More will be needed to set up studs such as Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta for RBI opportunities, though. Perhaps facing a lesser pitcher than Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz in Lackey will help in that regard.

 

 

Pitch Around David Ortiz Late

 

This almost goes without saying, but the Tigers’ Joaquin Benoit essentially had no choice but to pitch to Ortiz with the bases full and two outs in the bottom of the eighth in Game 2.

The resulting grand slam by Big Papi was historic:

Leyland admitted that he made a mistake in laying out the strategy for Benoit, who may have even done better to walk Ortiz in that situation with a 5-1 lead.

Next up was pinch-hitter Mike Napoli, who has but two hits in 17 postseason at-bats. In any event, Detroit is going to avoid pitching to Ortiz in crunch time at all costs this time around.

But that last phrase is not to be taken in the literal sense.

When Leyland sent out Benoit in the eighth, it was the fourth pitcher he’d used for that inning. That’s why a strong outing from Verlander is key, so that the Tigers skipper will not have to reach for his bullpen too much—if at all.

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Is Michael Wacha Outdueling Clayton Kershaw the End of the 2013 Dodgers?

There are a lot of reasons the Los Angeles Dodgers will return home facing an 0-2 hole to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS, but the biggest difference in Game 2 was the stellar pitching of Michael Wacha and one mistake from the Dodgers.

Starting with Clayton Kershaw, who didn’t make the mistake but got charged with the tough 1-0 loss, this game continued his career-long trend of domination. He was masterful, throwing 72 pitches over six innings with five strikeouts and allowing two hits, one unearned run and one walk.

Don Mattingly removed the likely Cy Young winner for pinch hitter Michael Young when Nick Punto singled with two outs in the sixth, which we will come back to in a few moments.

On the St. Louis side, what more do we say about Wacha? The rookie stood toe-to-toe with the best pitcher in baseball, trading zeroes for five innings before an A.J. Ellis passed ball allowed David Freese to advance to third and later score on a Jon Jay sacrifice fly.

Most impressive was Wacha’s poise and guile in working out of a second-and-third, zero-out jam in a crucial sixth-inning sequence. A Kershaw single and a Matt Carpenter throwing error on a Carl Crawford grounder in the hole put the Cardinals in big trouble.

A pop-out, intentional walk and two impressive strikeouts later, and Wacha was once again strutting off the mound as a hero.

This comes one start after Wacha took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of Game 4 against Pittsburgh in the National League Division Series. It’s also the second straight game the 22-year-old had at least eight strikeouts and one run or fewer allowed.

As ESPN’s Stats and Info team pointed out on Twitter, this mini-streak puts Wacha in fairly exclusive company among Cardinals pitchers:

While you don’t like to say that a series is over before it’s over, this one looks about as close to over as it can possibly be. Not only have the Cardinals beaten the Dodgers’ one-two punch of Zack Greinke and Kershaw, but now Adam Wainwright will take the mound in Game 3.

Finishing up on Kershaw being taken out after six innings for Young: It wound up not mattering in the long run, but the move was yet another questionable move for Mattingly after taking out Adrian Gonzalez for a pinch runner in Game 1.

The Gonzalez move was easier to defend because it was late in a tie game and he runs like he’s wearing cement shoes with his feet stuck in mud.

But taking Kershaw out made no sense because there were already two outs, St. Louis brought in left-handed Kevin Siegrist and Young actually hits worse against southpaws than righties.

And Kershaw was cruising. He had thrown 72 pitches through six innings against one of the best lineups in baseball. He didn’t even break a sweat in doing so.

Mattingly hasn’t named a Game 3 starter yet, though it will either be Hyun-Jin Ryu or Ricky Nolasco. Ryu got lit up against Atlanta in the National League Division Series with six hits and four runs allowed in three innings.

On top of that, there have been whispers about Ryu possibly being injured. According to Paul Casella of MLB.com, he threw a bullpen session prior to Game 2 of the NLDS with the Dodgers’ team surgeon and director of medical services watching.

Nolasco was passed over for a Game 4 start in the NLDS with the Dodgers leading 2-1 because he had an awful September with a 6.66 ERA and 33 hits allowed in 25.2 innings.

More important than the starting pitcher for Game 3 is the fact that the Dodgers have stopped hitting. You have to credit the Cardinals for their incredible pitching depth, but the stars who have to carry Los Angeles’ offense have completely disappeared.

Yasiel Puig can be as exciting as any player to watch, but he’s been way too excited and anxious in the box through two games. He’s 0-for-10 with six strikeouts this series, including a golden sombrero in Game 2.

In the biggest spot with the bases loaded, Puig worked the count full against Wacha after being down 0-2. But then he swung at a fastball at his shoe tops for strike three.

The energy Puig brings to the game is fun and makes him as compelling as any player in the game. He just doesn’t know how to rein it in yet, which is why you see him look as overmatched as he does right now.

Even though Puig generated all the headlines for the Dodgers after his call-up, Hanley Ramirez was their best player this season. He hit like a superstar in the regular season (.345/.402/.638) and was even better in the NLDS with eight hits in 16 at-bats and six extra-base hits.

But it turns out getting hit by that pitch in the first inning of Game 1 against Joe Kelly was worse than anticipated, as Ramirez was wincing in pain the rest of the night and sat out Game 2 to get X-rays.

Molly Knight of ESPN.com reported that Ramirez’s X-ray was negative.

I would be surprised if Ramirez didn’t at least try to play in Game 3, but who knows if he will be able to swing the bat with as much authority to drive the ball or move around in the field as well as he normally does?

The Dodgers have been a hot-and-cold offensive team this season. They were solid in the second half, averaging 4.25 runs per game (ninth in baseball), but weren’t overpowering teams. 

Putting a struggling, overaggressive Dodgers offense against this Cardinals pitching staff is going to lead to 19 straight scoreless innings. They have just 10 hits in 63 at-bats with 21 strikeouts since scoring two runs in the third inning of Game 1.

What’s scary for the Dodgers—or scarier, since we have already listed plenty of things that should have them concerned—is Greinke and Kershaw combined for 14 innings, six hits allowed, three runs (two earned), two walks and 15 strikeouts in these two games, yet the team is still down 0-2.

You could also make a very strong argument that the three runs Greinke and Kershaw have allowed were the result of poor defense more than anything they did. Carlos Beltran’s two-run double off Greinke in Game 1 was a catchable ball at the wall that Andre Ethier missed. Freese’s run in Game 2 came about thanks to a passed ball and Carl Crawford putting himself in poor position to even attempt a throw home on Jay’s fly ball.

(For the record, because his throwing arm is bad, the odds of Crawford being able to throw Freese out even with proper positioning were slim.)

Times are tough right now for the Dodgers. They entered this series with such promise after dispatching of Atlanta fairly easily, being able to line up their top two starters for Games 1 and 2. They got great pitching performances, only to squander them with poor hitting and defensive miscues at the worst possible times.

For all intents and purposes, the 2013 Los Angeles Dodgers season has come to an end. At least you can say it was always exciting.

 

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.

If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me up on Twitter with questions or comments.

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Dodgers vs. Cardinals: Score, Grades and Analysis for NLCS Game 2

After Game 1 of the NLCS lasted 13 innings and nearly five hours, both Clayton Kershaw and Michael Wacha seemed intent on ending Game 2 in hasty fashion.

It was the 22-year-old rookie Wacha who outdueled the soon-to-be two-time Cy Young winner, though, as the St. Louis Cardinals knocked off the Los Angeles Dodgers 1-0 at Busch Stadium to take a commanding 2-0 series lead.

Wacha, who gave up just one hit in each of his last two starts, was rather pedestrian by his standards on Saturday, lasting 6.2 shutout innings while giving up five hits and one walk and striking out eight. 

Another strong performance put him into decent company, as ESPN Stats & Info pointed out:

Kershaw, as he has been all season, was nearly unhittable. He gave up just two hits and one walk through six efficient innings, but the Cardinals got to him for the all-important run in the fifth inning.

After David Freese doubled and advanced to third on a passed ball to start the inning, Jon Jay went down to get a low pitch and hit it just far enough for the sacrifice fly:

In what was a tremendous pitcher’s duel between arguably the two hottest pitchers in baseball, it was an appropriate way for the only run to cross the plate.

Wacha, after allowing just two baserunners to reach second base through the first five innings, finally ran into trouble in the sixth.

The Dodgers were able to load the bases after a pair of singles and an intentional walk issued to Adrian Gonzalez, but Wacha hunkered down and struck out both Yasiel Puig and the red-hot Juan Uribe to get out of the jam. Needless to say, he was a little fired up:

Wacha got two quick outs to start the seventh but was replaced by Kevin Siegrist after allowing a single. Siegrist made things interesting with two wild pitches to move Nick Punto to third, but he eventually got Michael Young to fly out to end the inning.

Randy Choate, Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal combined to retire the Dodgers in order in the eight and ninth innings, completing the impressive shutout victory.

Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis had this to say after the game:

 

Player Grades

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: A

Kershaw may have the “L” placed next to his name in the box score, but there’s no logical way you can place the blame on him for the defeat.

He simply did what he has done all season: overwhelm hitters. He allowed just three baserunners through six innings, and if not for the passed ball by Ellis, this game is very likely still locked at zero.

Moreover, while Kershaw was “only” able to strike out five, he used just 72 pitches before being pulled for a pinch-hitter, meaning he could be available for a couple innings of work if things get dicey for the Dodgers in the coming days.

 

Michael Wacha, Cardinals: A

Well, I suppose he was bound to regress toward the mean at some point. Of course, at this point, the mean for Wacha is five hits, eight strikeouts and beating the best pitcher in the world.

I mean, he was so good (again) that even MLB‘s official Twitter feed got a little intense:

Yep. It was a soul-destroying performance.

 

A.J. Ellis, Dodgers: C

Ellis was one of the few players capable of doing much of anything at the plate, as he hit a ground-rule double and hit the ball hard the other two times at the plate. As such, it’s hard to lower his grade much more than this.

Still, it’s hard to get over the fact that his passed ball was the difference in the game. You can’t make mistakes like that in October.

 

David Freese, Cardinals: B+

Freese entered Saturday’s contest hitting just 3-for-21 with one extra-base hit this postseason, so it’s hard to imagine his confidence was too high.

While he didn’t break out of his slump in a gargantuan way (1-for-3), he proved to be key in the Cards’ win, getting a double off Kershaw and hustling home to score the game’s only run.

 

What’s Next

We will shift back to Los Angeles for Game 3 on Monday at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Dodgers will try to narrow the series gap with Hyun-Jin Ryu, but it won’t be easy with Adam Wainwright taking the hill for the Cards. 

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ALCS Schedule 2013: When and Where to Catch All the Action

Tonight, the 2013 American League Championship Series will kick off at Fenway Park, as the Boston Red Sox get set to host the Detroit Tigers for Game 1. 

For both teams, the road to get here hasn’t been easy, as the Red Sox withstood a gutsy effort from the Tampa Bay Rays while the Tigers staved off elimination by defeating the Oakland A’s on the road in Game 5 of their ALDS showdown. 

Heading into what’s sure to be a very entertaining series, here’s a look at everything you need to know in order to catch the action live. 

 

ALCS Television Schedule
Game (*If necessary) Matchup Date Time (ET) TV
1 Tigers at Red Sox Saturday, Oct. 12 8:07 p.m. FOX
2 Tigers at Red Sox Sunday, Oct. 13 8:15 p.m. FOX
3 Red Sox at Tigers Tuesday, Oct. 15 4:07 p.m. FOX
4 Red Sox at Tigers Wednesday, Oct. 16 8:07 p.m. FOX
5* Red Sox at Tigers Thursday, Oct. 17 8:07 p.m. FOX
6* Tigers at Red Sox Saturday, Oct. 19 4:37 p.m. (moved to 8:07 p.m. if NLCS does not go to Game 7) FOX
7* Tigers at Red Sox Sunday Oct. 20 8:07 p.m. FOX

CBS Boston

 

How Boston Wins

First and foremost, for the Red Sox, one of the biggest points of emphasis defensively has to be containing Miguel Cabrera and doing their best to minimize his impact on the series. 

Thus far in this postseason, Cabrera hasn’t exactly been the dominant hitter that he was during the regular season, but as the undisputed best hitter in baseball, everyone knows that this can change in an instant. 

If the Red Sox can manage Cabrera, the next key will be to stay with the Tigers until the later stages of games. As great as Detroit’s starting rotation is, their bullpen is almost equally as suspect at times. 

Furthermore, if the Red Sox continue to get clutch contributions from Jacoby Ellsbury and Shane Victorino, Boston will be in good shape to win this series. 

 

How Detroit Wins

If the Tigers can get more pop offensively, they’ll be in this series, but otherwise, this team will struggle to keep pace with Boston’s array of potent offensive weapons. 

In addition, the pitching matchup on paper clearly favors the Tigers, so if Detroit’s rotation does what’s expected of them, they should be able to silence the Red Sox from the mound. 

The Red Sox are a team that feeds off momentum in huge amounts, so if Detroit can jump out to an early lead, on the road no less, the Tigers could make this a short series. 

If not, one can’t discount the possibility of Boston continuing to build confidence and offensively overpowering the Tigers. 

Detroit’s staff is good enough to win this series on its own, but after a grueling series with Oakland, whether they’re well-rested enough to do so remains to be seen. 

 

 Prediction

I think Boston continues its inspired ride through the postseason and takes both games at home but drops Game 3 with Justin Verlander on the mound. 

But the Red Sox have heart and proven postseason performers in the form of Ellsbury, Victorino, David Ortiz (two homers in the ALDS) and Dustin Pedroia, and they’ll rally back to take Games 4 and 5 to advance to the World Series for the first time since 2007. 

Boston 4, Detroit 1

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