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Since the A’s last made the playoffs they’ve had successive win totals of 76, 75, 75 and 81, and thus been stuck in mediocrity.  But there is reason for optimism this year, thanks mostly to a young pitching staff that took a huge step forward last year.  

Billy Beane has a wonderful eye for pitching talent, unfortunately for A’s fans, his eye for positional talent is just as spectacularly bad. In 2010, the Oakland starters led the league in quality starts, ERA and finished second in Batting Average Against (BAA), but only 24th in strikeouts. 

These overall stats reflect the nature of the starting staff; all quality pitchers who need a true strikeout pitch to reach elite fantasy status.  The top-three in the rotation (Cahill, Anderson, Gonzalez) will probably fall in the 20-40 draft pick range for fantasy pitchers.  

The clear No. 1 after last year’s breakout season is Trevor Cahill (18-8; sub-three era; 21 quality starts).  He was dominant for long stretches last year; at one point he had a 20-game streak where he pitched at least five innings and gave up six hits or fewer, tying Nolan Ryan’s modern day record. 

In contrast to Nolan Ryan, Cahill’s glaring weakness is his inability to get the swing and miss—in nearly 200 innings last year he only had 118 strikeouts.  Obviously, this is a negative for fantasy purposes as you lose strikeout points, but stating the obvious, when the ball is in play bad things can happen to a pitcher’s stats.  

Cahill will start the year at only 23 years old, so he has a chance to continue to improve and develop a strikeout pitch and if that happens you are looking at a top-10 pitcher. 

Brett Anderson pitched very well when healthy last year (7-6; 2.80 era; 13/19 quality starts).  Despite nice strikeout numbers during his rookie year, last year was a bit of a disappointment in that area.  Part of that could be blamed on arm troubles, which might’ve affected his swing-and-miss-ability.  If he stays healthy and reverts back to his rookie year strikeout ratio, he could finish the season as the No. 1 fantasy pitcher on this team.

Perhaps the most enticing talent on the team is Gio Gonzalez.  A formerly erratic pitcher with all the tools, he seemed to figure things out last year.  What makes him especially enticing on this roster is his ability to strikeout opponents. 

This slight dip in strikeouts from the previous season was worth it as he increased his wins, gave up less walks, less hits and had a lower ERA.  The tricky thing, when someone makes such a big leap is that you have to be careful of a slight regression. 

Still, he’s a player with No. 2 potential who could be overlooked in a lot of drafts with definite sleeper potential.

It speaks volumes about the A’s staff that Dallas Braden (of the A-Rod spat and perfect game) is the fourth starter.  Last year he finished sixth in the American League in WHIP and 13th in ERA.

Throw in his perfect game and he has the ability to completely shut down the opponent, but like the rest of the A’s his lack of strikeouts hurts his value.  Plus, you have to reserve a special spot in your heart for a guy that calls out the highest paid player in baseball.

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With the 26^th ranked ERA in the majors last year, the Brew Crew went to work this off-season to improve their rotation. Sought-after pitcher Zack Greinke is coming off a disappointing 2010, but was last year truly a fluke? Or will the Newer Brewer Shaun Marcum outpitch Greinke this season? It sure is getting exciting in Milwaukee this year.

Baseball’s 2009 AL Cy Young winner is heading to the National League. Greinke will take his 2008 and 2009 stellar years with him to Milwaukee to take on the rest of the NL Central. 

Greinke owners were annoyed all year by his shoddy numbers and lack of production. He went 10-14 in 220 IP with a 4.17 ERA and 181 strikeouts. 

What we can take away from last season was his strikeouts, low home run total, and consistent walk rate. Greinke was able to strikeout more that 180 batters last season, and also allowed less than 20 home runs despite his 4.17 ERA. Along with his 55 walks (56 in 2008 and 51 in 2009), it looks like Greinke can definitely rebound and have a successful 2011 season. 

I think Greinke will be a top-20 pitcher this year, and can possibly see 17 or 18 wins if Milwaukee’s offense can come alive.

Milwaukee’s second ace of the rotation is Yovani Gallardo. The 25-year-old stud is entering 2011 with two consecutive great seasons under his belt. 

Gallardo’s 2009 and 2010 were similar in terms of numbers, but the best part is his health. The injury bug has plagued him for a few seasons in his career, but Gallardo seems to be healthier than ever and ready to go. He has serious potential to be a top-20 starter in 2011. 

One concern is his poor performance after the All Star break last season. Even though he went 6-3, Gallardo’s ERA was 5.77 after the break. 

I think we can expect another solid year from him though. He should be able to get 14 wins, 200 strikeouts, a 3.70 ERA, and 185 IP once again.

One of the Brewers’ newest arrivals is starting pitcher Shaun Marcum. 

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This upcoming season for Astros pitchers will be an interesting one for fantasy owners. With Brett Myers’ 2010 success, a strong second half from Wandy Rodriguez, and J.A. Happ’s potential, Houston has a chance to showcase three top-100 starters this year.

In his first season with Houston, Brett Myers had one of the best years of his career. He successfully took over the role as ace of the rotation, especially with Oswalt’s move to Philly.

Myers (2010: 14-8, 223.2 IP, 3.14 ERA, 180 K) was able to stay healthy and even went 8-0 with a 2.01 ERA at home. Last season may be considered a fluke to some, but I am a Myers believer.

Entering 2011 he should be ranked in the mid to high twenties. His ERA may go up a little, but the strikeouts, wins, and fantastic home field benefit will be there as long as he can remain healthy.

I’d like to find out how many fantasy owners dropped Wandy Rodriguez half way through the 2010 season. As a Rodriguez owner myself, there were a few times of yelling at my computer while glaring up and cursing Wandy to the heavens above… but I digress.

Wandy was able to turn his season around. After the All Star break, he went 5-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 93.2 innings pitched. The second half of last season was the Rodriguez we are all used to seeing. Rodriguez’s post-All Star stats to continue into 2011, and he can be your team’s solid third starter. Expect him to get around 14 wins while posting a mid-3.00 ERA.

Houston’s third starter, J.A. Happ, made 16 starts in 2010 and seemed to fit nicely in his new role with the Astros. His 2010 totals (Philadelphia and Houston) include a 5-4 record with a 3.40 ERA.

Looking forward to 2011, Happ needs to pitch further into games to be a solid fantasy play. Only going seven innings or more in two of his 16 starts proved to be detrimental to his fantasy value. Happ does has the Minute Maid home field advantage, going 4-1 with 38 strikeouts in 44.1 innings with a 3.22 ERA, so fantasy owners can use this to their benefit.

Expect Happ to be a fourth or fifth starter in most mixed leagues, and possibly see 13 wins, a 7.0 K/9 ratio, and an ERA between 3.20 and 3.50.

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Coming to fans everywhere, the latest installment of Washington D.C. baseball…National Treasures: The Missing Strasburg. Starring the D-list celebrities of the fantasy baseball world: Livan “National League Harlot” Hernandez, Jordan “Not That Zimmerman” Zimmermann, and featuring Jason Marquis and John Lannan as trusty sidekicks.

Looking back at last year’s chapter of National Treasures, it seems like not many will buy into the 2011 version. 

There might be fantasy relevance with the Nationals’ pitching this season with Tom Gorzelanny doing his best President Obama impression. Coming to Washington D.C. from Chicago, Gorzelanny is a strikeout pitcher with two sub-4.00 ERA seasons under his belt.

It’s likely he’ll be towards the beginning of the Nationals rotation, but the question remains if Gorzelanny will be used primarily in relief like in Chicago each of the last two years. I think he is meant to stay in your league’s free agency this year, but in super deep or NL-only leagues, there is some potential.

From Florida to San Francisco to Washington to Arizona to Colorado to New York and now back to Washington, Livan Hernandez certainly gets around the National League. 

Usually bringing his ghastly ERA and bloated WHIP, Hernandez will have another crack at it with the Nationals this year. He actually had one of the better seasons of his career last year, posting a 3.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 22 quality starts.

However, he only managed to win ten games in 2010, and had one of his lowest K/9 ratios (4.8). I can’t see Livan in many 2011 lineups, especially with age not helping as he enters his 20^th season in the majors.

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The Metropolitans were seventh in team ERA (3.73) in 2010. Impressive right? You bet. But in fantasy terms, the Mets starting pitchers are merely irrelevant.

As for Johan Santana, who will likely miss the first half of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, it will be tough to determine what ADP (average draft position) is suitable.

My advice, though, don’t shoot for Johan. Let someone else take him in the draft. Unless it’s a very late round and you’re already secure with your starting pitchers, then it’s okay to take a risk and hopefully use him in the second half.

As for his teammates, there isn’t too much going for them. Just know your league’s scoring, and then decide if you could use any of the Mets starters in 2011.

Mike Pelfrey won 15 games last year, had an ERA below 4.00, and pitched 200+ innings. In 2008, he won 13 games, had an ERA below 4.00, and pitched 200+ innings. It looks to me this is the type of stuff you’ll see from Pelfrey this year. In my opinion, 2009 was a fluke year (5.00+ ERA in about 185 innings).

We can all say Mike Pelfrey is not a strikeout pitcher. And his 2009 season, his fluke year in my eyes, was his only season with a ground ball to fly ball ratio above 1.0 (it was 1.06 to be exact).

Since 2006, Pelfrey’s ground ball to fly ball ratio has been 0.99 or lower, and when you consider all the outs involved for over 200 innings of work, that can be the difference between a 5.03 ERA (2009) and 3.66 ERA (2010).

Jonathon Niese has pitched himself into the 2011…

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In 2010, most of the Florida starting pitchers looked like fish out of water on the mound. The Marlins’ starting pitchers were behind the league average in ERA, quality starts, and innings pitched per start.

For a team with such wellknown starters, each of whom has found success at some point in his career, the Marlins of 2011 have a good chance of improving from last season’s woes.

Josh Johnson has been fantasy gold the last two years. Despite a drop in wins in 2010, he had a 2.30 ERA, the second best in the majors,(King Felix was first with a 2.27 ERA). He was also second to Hernandez in quality start percentage,(82 percent to Felix’s 88 percent).

Some of his drop in wins is on the shoulders of the Florida Marlins offense. He had six games, the most in the majors, which were considered to be “wins lost”, meaning the Marlins’ bullpen cost Johnson the game he was in line to win.

He’s a strikeout machine, averaging more than nine strikeouts per nine innings, and his fabulous home run per nine innings rate,(0.3), led the majors.  It might be difficult for Johnson to have as good a year as he did in 2010, but assuming he can stay healthy, Johnson is in line to be a top ten pitcher for 2011.

Marlin newcomer Javier Vazquez will look to rebound from his 5.00 plus ERA and 6.9 K/9 rate with the Yankees last season. Before his 2010 New York Yankees stint, Vazquez had five straight seasons of 200 plus innings and at least eight strikeouts per nine innings.

Re-entering the NL East in 2011, Vazquez will likely be the Marlins’ second or third starter. He has a career 3.74 ERA against the rest of the National League East. For a guy who has had multiple seasons of high ERAs, Vazquez can still be considered a good play because of his strikeouts.

His 2009 season with Atlanta was the best season of his career with personal bests in ERA (2.38), WHIP (1.03), K/9 IP (9.8), and BB/9 IP (1.8). I like him as a nice fantasy baseball sleeper in 2011 with the Fish.

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In preparation for the 2011 MLB Fantasy Baseball season, the Fantasy Fix team will preview a team’s pitching rotation each day. Tyler’s second piece of the series examines the National League East’s Atlanta Braves.

The Braves’ rotation has a nice mix this year. The young stud, the crafty veteran, the aging ace and the potential star.

Tommy Hanson, in his second season with the Braves, proved his stuff last year, but only managed to win ten games. To Hanson’s credit, eight of his eleven losses came when his offense failed to score more than three runs. In 2010, he posted a 3.33 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and struck out 173 in 202.2 innings.

Hanson will likely fall in the mid-twenties of starting pitchers for 2011. I also think he’ll see more wins than previous seasons, especially with Uggla’s arrival and Jason Heyward in beast mode.

After the All-Star break, Hanson recorded 69 strikeouts in 100 innings (down from 104 strikeouts in 100 innings before the break), so his punch-outs might drop a bit next season. His pitching approach may have changed in the second half too. From the first half of the year to the second half, Hanson’s batting average against hitters dropped .066 and he lowered his WHIP by 0.39.

I wouldn’t draft Hanson as your top starter, but he can definitely be a solid number two guy.

Now, let’s look at a guy a little more than a decade older than Hanson, Derek Lowe—

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In preparation for the 2011 MLB Fantasy Baseball season, The Fantasy Fix team will preview a team’s pitching rotation each day. Tyler starts the series with the National League East’s Philadelphia Phillies.

The Fantastic Four have come together to defeat the evil competition in the NL East.

In 2009, we saw the first glimpse of Cliff “Mr. Fantastic” Lee. He made 12 starts going 7-4 with 79.2 IP, a 3.39 ERA and struck out 74 during his successful stretch with the Phillies. Lee was this offseason’s most coveted free agent, and stunned the baseball universe with his decision. However, getting a taste of World Series savor with the Texas Rangers, Lee now joins the rest of his super hero friends in the City of Brotherly Love to try yet again to win it all.

Last year, Mr. Lee won 12 games in 28 starts while posting a 3.19 ERA, striking out 185 and walking only 18 batters in 212 innings. In 2011, Lee should see an increase in wins with all the same stuff: many strikeouts, few walks and a solid ERA in the low to mid three’s.

Beginning with opening day, Cliff will find himself in the midst of a friendly competition with superhero friend Roy “The Thing” Halladay as they dual it out for the title of ace of the rotation.

In his first year in Philly, Roy “The Thing” Halladay used his super-human arm and strength to take down any hitter in his sight. Five complete game shutouts, one perfect game, a no hitter in his first postseason start and a Cy Young to cap it off, Halladay was easily baseball’s top pitcher in 2010.

As 2011 approaches, there is no reason for him to lose his title as the games best arm. His health is no longer a concern as he is about to enter his sixth straight season of 30+ starts. Despite allowing 24 home runs last year, we can say the hitters’ advantage at Citizens Bank Park is not a major liability. Halladay posted a stellar 2.44 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

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You would think that a player with over 7,500 plate appearances would be fairly easy to evaluate, but Adrian Beltre may be one of the more difficult players to project going into 2011.  This is a guy who has hit as high as .334 and as low .240, has hit as many as 48 home runs and as few as 19 and has driven in everywhere from 60 runs to double that number.  To say he has been inconsistent would be an understatement. 

That history of inconsistency should make fantasy owners very cautious about where Beltre should be drafted.  However, because he is coming off the second best year of his career (.321, 28 HR, 102 RBI, 84 R), it is safe to assume that most fantasy sites will have Beltre fairly high in their rankings, and he will be drafted accordingly.  

There is no question that the ballpark in Texas will be in Beltre’s favor and the lineup around him is solid, but it still seems like there is too much risk to potentially waste a Top-50 pick on him.  Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote this piece attempting to debunk the myth that Beltre is motivated by contract years by saying that in three of his five contract years Beltre has disappointed.  True enough, but it should be noted that Beltre has never had a WAR higher than five in a non-contract year.

One could also argue that the lack of depth at third base is reason to pick early or spend big on Beltre.  However, third base may not actually be all that shallow.  Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and Alex Rodriguez are all guys you would clearly rather have over Beltre. 

Michael Young, Martin Prado and Casey McGehee are also viable 3B options.  If you believe in Jose Bautista, add him to that mix as well.  Pablo Sandoval, anyone?  Maybe the Panda has a bounce-back year.  If you can live with the average, Mark Reynolds could get you 30-plus homers. 

On that note, maybe Aramis Ramirez can find his batting average again.  Maybe Scott Rolen, Miguel Tejada and Juan Uribe are not dead yet.  Maybe Chris Johnson will over perform again.  Maybe Pedro Alvarez will take the next step.  Maybe my long time boyfriend, Jose Lopez, will not be completely and utterly useless.  Maybe Lopez’s new teammate, Ian Stewart will hit 25+ homers again.  

Given, there are a lot of maybes there, but maybe Beltre goes all 2005 on us and hits .255 with 19 HR, 69 R and 87 RBI.  There is just no reason to risk a Top-50 pick on a guy with such a long history of inconsistency.  Grab one of the four elite 3B guys or wait until much later to take a risk on a third baseman.

[Original Article]

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who will draft Adrian Beltre when UZR becomes a roto category.  You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.

Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix, or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!

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Even before Zack Greinke was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, he was an interesting player to evaluate from a fantasy perspective. 

Last year he disappointed in the follow up season to his 2009 Cy Young campaign.  He won only 10 games (16 in ’09), had a 4.17 ERA (2.16 in’09), and struck out 7.40 batters per nine innings (9.50 K/9 in ’09). 

He hardly met the expectations of fantasy owners who drafted him in the late second/early third round.  

However, a closer look at some of his peripheral stats on his Fangraphs page shows that he might have been a bit lucky in ’09 and not so much so in ’10.  There is no need for me to go into detail about why his FIP, xFIP, and LOB% suggest that, just trust me. 

It is possible that with all other things being equal, Greinke’s numbers next season might look like they did in 2008, the year before he won the Cy Young: 13 wins, 3.47 ERA, 8.14 K/9 (with peripheral stats consistent with those numbers).

However, all other things are not equal. 

With a move to the National League and a better team, the analysis has to change somewhat.  With respect to the latter, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Casey McGehee , and Rickie Weeks are a significant upgrade in run support compared to Billy Butler and the eight minor leaguers with which the Royals fill out a lineup card on a daily basis. 

Wins are certainly difficult to predict, but the added run support should make it easier for Greinke to get back to 15+ wins in Milwaukee.  

As far as the move to the NL is concerned….

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