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Fantasy Baseball: Is Now the Time to Buy Tommy Milone?

After striking out 10 Yankee batters over seven scoreless innings on July 20th, Oakland A’s pitcher Tommy Milone was 9-6 with a 3.34 ERA. In his past three starts, against Toronto twice and Tampa, he has been battered for 16 earned runs in 19 innings (7.58 ERA).

He dropped all three of his starts to even his record at 9-9 and his ERA ballooned to 3.91.

That rough patch has led to many a fantasy owner jumping ship. The question is, should you swoop him up?

He certainly has use as a streamer at the very least. In his home starts, Milone is 5-3 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. On the road it has been a different story, as he’s 4-6 with a 5.77 and a 1.53 WHIP.

He has also been hit hard during day games (5.68 ERA compared to 3.40 at night). That kind of split differential makes it tough for full-time ownership.

Milone pitched well for Washington last year (3.81 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 26.0 innings) and was a dominant force for Triple-A Syracuse (3.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). Tommy has illustrated great control throughout his career, which helps keep his ERA and WHIP down. 

He has the goods to make batters miss so continued success in the strikeout department wouldn’t be unexpected.

Milone is owned in about 45 percent of Yahoo! and 35 percent of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues. He does have some value, but right now he’s best served as a streamer during home night starts. I’d sit him out today on the road against the White Sox, though.

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Fantasy Baseball: Should You Be Looking at Hisashi Iwakuma?

Hisashi Iwakuma turned heads in his last start, striking out 13 batters en route to a 4-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. That’s three straight solid outings for the righty as he has gone 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP with 23 strikeouts in 19 innings against the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Rays.

His recent success has allowed him to lower his ERA over a full point from 5.13 to 4.10, very impressive considering he was facing two of the top scoring offenses. In his five starts he’s also faced the Orioles and Rangers and has managed to go 1-1 with a 3.41 ERA.

Iwakuma is a streaming candidate based on his home-road splits. On the road he is 0-0 with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. He’s a totally different pitcher at home though, where he’s 2-2 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.

Over the past four years Iwakuma has combined to go 51-19 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.11 WHIP to go along with 523 strikeouts in 690-2/3 innings. Unfortunately the WHIP (1.38 on the year) is probably real and the recent strikeout binge is probably not. He still has some use for fantasy owners.

Iwakuma is barely owned in fantasy leagues, but that number will change if he continues to baffle the opposition. His next start is Sunday on the road against the Bronx Bombers. Despite handling Toronto’s high-powered offense in his last outing, I’d hold off on adding Iwakuma for now. He should be considered for home starts though.

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Fantasy Baseball: Should You Add Lucas Harrell?

Houston Astros pitcher Lucas Harrell is 7-7 with a 4.24 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and 75 strikeouts in 114.2 innings. Not exactly impressive numbers, especially the 5.9 K/9 ratio, but lately he’s been much more productive making him a fantasy consideration.

In his past five starts Harrell has allowed one or fewer runs on four occasions. He is sporting an impressive 2.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 33 innings of work during that stretch.

Equally impressive has been the 35 strikeouts (9.5 K/9) he has racked up. Harrell has nearly as many strikeouts in his past 33 innings as he had in his first 81.2.

Harrell has been a monster at home, sporting a 5-1 record with a 1.99 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 45.1 innings pitched. Unfortunately for Lucas, he has tossed 69.1 innings on the road, where his ERA is a robust 5.71 and his WHIP is 1.46.

Clearly with splits like that, he has earned a streamer designation. If he is starting at home, he should be considered.

In his past two road starts he has posted a 1.50 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. His success has come in just 12 innings, and he got bombed for five runs in five innings in his prior start, so he’s not out of the woods. However, if the matchup is favorable, even on the road he could be worth a look.

Harrell is available in virtually all fantasy leagues so if you’re looking for a hot streaming pitcher option, he could be your guy. His next start is Tuesday against the Reds. I’d hold off on adding him.

 

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Is Alexi Amarista Roster Worthy?

Buy Low Pitchers

Have No Fiers, Pitching Help is Here

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Fantasy Baseball: Is Alexi Amarista Roster Worthy?

In 42 games and 110 at-bats, San Diego second baseman Alexi Amarista is hitting .273 with 16 runs, four home runs, 18 RBI and a pair of stolen bases. These are not exactly numbers that make you want to waiver wire to snatch him up, but what he has done lately may make you reconsider.

Amarista’s season average hides the .143 May he experienced.

In June and July he has combined to hit .333. His OPS is at .771 thanks to his .367 in May. In June it was 1.088 and is at .775 so far this month. Amarista had just two extra base hits in April and has had 10 since.

He had two runs and two RBI in his first 35 at bats. In his subsequent 75, he has 13 runs and 16 RBI. He’s not giving you the stolen bases that you would want from a second baseman, but that is something he can build on.

He did swipe 15 bags in 86 games for Triple-A Salt Lake last year.

Part of the reason for his success is his ability to hit both righties and lefties. He is hitting .290 against left-handed pitching and .266 against righties. His power has come more against right-handed pitching (.782 OPS vs. .742) though, to balance him out a bit.

Despite playing in a pitcher’s park, he has managed to hit .267 at home.

Not surprisingly, Amarista’s luck has changed. After a .172 BABIP in May, it has been .333 since. While I think his power outage in June was a fluke, I don’t think a solid average is unattainable.

Amarista is owned in 37.0 percent of ESPN and 12.0 percent of Yahoo! leagues. If you are looking for a boost for your middle infielder slot and need some help in the batting average category, Amarista could be a decent option.

 

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Dillon Gee Has Been Nice Fantasy Surprise for New York Mets

The New York Mets have been a nice surprise, considering that Jose Reyes took his talents to South Beach. For the most part, the success has come from exceptional pitching.

While most of the attention goes to R.A. Dickey and Johan Santana (who have been lights out) as well as Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee has done his part as well.

On the year Gee is 5-6 with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Decent numbers, but he has been even better of late. Over his past eight starts Dillon is 3-3 with a 3.42 and a 1.16 WHIP.

Gee’s ERA has improved each month. His April ERA was 4.85. His May ERA was 4.58 and his June number is 3.90. He kicks off July on Sunday against the Dodgers.

Gee has been surprisingly better on the road, posting a 3-2 record and a 4.23 ERA away from Citi Field, as opposed to a 2-4, 4.55 mark at home. His WHIP has been better at home (1.24 vs. 1.36) though.

Last year was the opposite, when he was 7-3 at home with a 3.17 ERA and 6-3 on the road with a 5.74 mark.

Gee’s BABIP is .307 this year, which is up from his .270 2011 mark, and has raised his career number to .276. It was .279 in June, so perhaps his luck is improving.

Gee’s strikeout ratio is at 8.4 K/9 and way up from last year’s 6.4 K/9 mark. If he can keep that up and keep his ERA down he’ll be a solid fantasy option going forward.

Gee is owned in just over 20 percent of Yahoo! and less than twenty percent of ESPN fantasy leagues.

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Fantasy Baseball: You Down with Jason Marquis?

Jason Marquis, how can I explain it
I’ll take you frame by frame it
Left Minnesota ’cause he was getting hit
San Diego success has you scratchin’ temple
Why?…well…that’s not that simple

OK, now that I got my Naughty By Nature out of my system, let’s take a look at Jason Marquis’ recent success.

When Marquis left Minnesota he was 2-4 with a bloated 8.47 ERA. Those are beer league softball numbers. Now that he’s back in the National League, it’s like he’s a new man.

For the Padres, he’s still struggling with wins and losses at 1-2, but he has posted a 1.86 ERA over 19-1/3 innings in his three starts.

Marquis has never really been a shut-down pitcher, as evidenced by his lifetime marks of 107-104, a 4.60 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, but he has at least been a serviceable pitcher with some fantasy value. Those are two things that couldn’t have been further from the truth in his brief stint in Minnesota.

Part of it could be his comfort level in the National League. He is also going to a pitcher’s park (not that Target Field is a launching pad) and to an offensively-challenged division. It also could just be the sweet mustache he’s rocking.

It should not be surprising that Marquis is only owned in a handful of fantasy leagues considering his early-season struggles. I will still only use him as a streaming option, but that wasn’t even a question a few weeks ago. His next start comes tomorrow against the Mariners in Seattle, so continued success wouldn’t be surprising.

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Fantasy Baseball: Should You Buy Low on Matt Moore?

After getting knocked around by Oakland (of all teams) on Sunday, Matt Moore comes into today’s start with a 1-2 record, a robust 5.71 ERA and a troubling 1.64 WHIP.

Not only are opponents batting .289 against him, he has had issues with control walking 18 batters in 34-2/3 innings. He has also yielded six long balls.

Obviously, the 22-year-old phenom who set the league on fire wrapping up the regular season with a 2.89 ERA in 9-1/3 innings and posting a 0.90 ERA in ten playoff innings, isn’t going to be on the chopping block for fantasy owners, but he could be on the trading block.

The elephant in the room—when it comes to Matt Moore’s 2012 fantasy outlook—is the potential innings cap. Tampa Bay figures to be in the playoffs or at least in the chase, but they could still monitor Moore’s innings to protect their investment.

If you believe in Matt Moore, and why wouldn’t you, that is certainly something you should be in the ear of his fantasy owner with. Plant that seed and hope it grows.

I would also play up the fact that he has yet to face the Blue Jays, Orioles or the Yankees and got bombed in his lone appearance against the Red Sox.

He plays in a tough division that features five of the top ten home run totals in the league. That is cause for concern and could also play into your favor.

Moore has really been smacked around in two of his starts. In the other four he has a 3.04 ERA. Obviously he’s going to have some bad starts, but he’s way better than his numbers would lead you to believe.

His owner may still be reluctant to sell low on Moore, but it’s certainly worth exploring.

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Fantasy Baseball: Are You Hot on Hammel?

No, I didn’t misspell Cole Hamels’ name. Although, if you only looked at their numbers, it would be hard to tell them apart.

Hamels is 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings. Baltimore’s Jason Hammel is 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 25 Ks in 26 innings.

Not bad for a 29-year-old journeyman with a career ERA of 4.88 and a WHIP of 1.45.

He got off on the right foot holding the Minnesota Twins to one run on two hits over eight innings in his season debut. The Twins struggled out of the gate, but he has since quieted the Toronto Blue Jays bats twice. He also held the Chicago White Sox to two runs over six innings.

Hammel has yet to allow more than two runs or six hits in a game this year. He has walked eight batters, but his .194 BAA and 85.4 percent strand rate has kept the big innings away.

Hammel is owned in less than a third of fantasy leagues. He has extra value in Yahoo! leagues because you can plug him in the RP slot. If you punted saves or injuries depleted your bullpen, you can stock up on wins and strikeouts by using starters with RP eligibility in those slots.

He is slated to make two starts next week, but I would hold out on adding him. He will first take on the New York Yankees in the Bronx and follow that up with a trip to Fenway. If he can escape from those two starts unscathed, the bandwagon will fill up quick.

If you go by the numbers, he is in for a regression. His K/9 of 8.65 is significantly up from his 6.33 career mark. Same with the strand rate (career 68.7 percent) and ground ball rate (61.8 vs. 45.5 percent).

His HR/FB rate is significantly down (6.3 vs. 10.5 percent), and some of that could be escaping Coors Field, but his BABIP is also down big (.254 vs. .313).

I would not add Hammel right now, but I would definitely monitor him.

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Fantasy Baseball: Can Max Scherzer Be Elite?

Max Scherzer went 15-9 last year with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He collected 174 strikeouts. He has the ability to put up better numbers this year, but can he be elite?

Prior to last year, the only time Scherzer’s ERA had been above 4.00 in his professional career was 2009 for the Diamondbacks.

Part of the problem came in the form of the longball, as he yielded a career-high 29 deep shots. Most of the damage came on the road as he allowed 11 home runs in 18 home starts and 18 home runs in 15 road starts. His ERA (3.80 at home, 5.23 on the road) was affected by that fact.

Interestingly enough, he pitched better in the second half (4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .263 BAA) than the first half (4.69, 1.44, .279), but had more success in the first half (10-4 compared to 5-5).

Scherzer was 8-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 16 starts against the AL Central. On paper the Indians, Royals, Twins and White Sox do not provide an intimidating presence, and continued success remains a strong likelihood.

Scherzer has a Mock Draft Central ADP of 147, which puts him in the 13th round of 12-team drafts. He’s the 43rd pitcher to come off the board, making him a fourth starting pitcher.

He needs to improve his strikeout percentage, which was a career-low 20.9 percent last year and keep more balls in the yard. I don’t think he’ll be an elite starting pitching option, but he is a top-25 option.

He starts off against Boston—who bombed him for seven runs in two innings last year—so temper your expectations early on, but he should be a solid SP3 with SP2 upside.

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2012 Fantasy Baseball NL-Only Shortstop Rankings

Here’s the 2012 LestersLegends shortstop rankings for NL-only leagues.

1. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies 

My top-ranked shortstop last year holds onto the top spot thanks to a .302-81-30-105-9 line. I’d like to see 100 runs, but given his other numbers, it’s hard to complain.

 

2. Hanley Ramirez, Miami Marlins 

It was a lost year of sorts for Han-Ram with his meager .243-55-10-45-20 line. I expect him to bounce back, especially with Jose Reyes joining the lineup. Plus, he’s moving to third base, which enhances his value.

 

3. Jose Reyes, Miami Marlins 

Was he a contract-year wonder? Hard to say. It’s also hard to argue with the .337-101-7-44-39 line he posted.

 

4. Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs 

He’s turning just 22 next month. He has already posted two .300 seasons. His run total jumped dramatically to 91 and he provided a solid amount of RBI (66) and SBs (22). He has arrived.

5. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies 

Can he stay healthy again? That is a concern at 33, but he was just one of two players (Cabrera) with 15-plus HRs and 15-plus SBs.

 

6. Dee Gordon, Los Angeles Dodgers 

Swiped 24 bases in 56 games. He should also be in the running for most SBs at the position.

 

7. Emilio Bonifacio, Miami Marlins 

Stole 40 bases last year. Has eligibility at SS, 3B and OF. He didn’t do much besides steal though.

 

8.  Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondback 

He only played half a season and is recovering from ankle surgery. Still, he has been a productive player in the past and if healthy should be again.

 

9.  Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals 

He swiped 25 bases last year. The rest of his line (.253-65-8-49) does little to get anybody excited. He’s 26 this year though, and it would not be out of the question if he suddenly got it this year. Considering he combined to hit .295 in August and September with five HRs and 22 RBI, he may have already done so.

10.  Alex Gonzalez, Milwaukee Brewers 

He is 35, but he still has some pop in his bat. He has slugged 38 home runs over the past two seasons. He has moved on to Milwaukee. Gonzalez doesn’t bring much else to the table in a fantasy sense, but he is solid defensively, which should keep him in the lineup so he can add to his counting stats.

 

11.  Zach Covart, Cincinnati Reds

He had 37 at bats, in which he collected 12 hits for a .324 average. He scored six runs, hit two home runs, and had three RBI as he finished with a .811 OPS before an elbow injury shut him down. Low risk, with good potential.

 

12.  Jason Bartlett, San Diego Padres

He has forgot how to hit (.254, .245 the past two seasons) and playing in San Diego doesn’t help, but he has swiped 20 or more bases in four of the past five seasons.

 

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