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Handicapping the Dodgers’ Hotly Contested Spring Training Position Battles

February is here, which means spring training is just around the corner for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the rest of Major League Baseball.

The Boys in Blue made waves this offseason with their flurry of moves at the winter meetings, trading away key players from last season’s team that took home the National League West division title.

It remains to be seen whether this year’s roster incarnation is superior, but most of the players on the 2015 Dodgers know their role heading into the new season. The starting rotation is set, along with the closer and infield.

Two positions that are still up for grabs, however, are catcher and center field.

 

Catcher

There were definite concerns within the organization following the struggles of A.J. Ellis last season. The Dodgers’ incumbent backstop batted just .191 in 93 games as he battled through knee and ankle injuries.

But although his performance at the plate suffered, the new front office led by President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi realized his value in other areas of the game—namely his relationship with the pitching staff.

“I don’t know what I’m going to do if he’s not back,” Clayton Kershaw told reporters following the Dodgers’ season-ending loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series last October, per Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. “I think we’d be losing a lot if we let him go.”

It’s why the Dodgers ultimately decided to avoid arbitration with Ellis and brought him back on a one-year, $4.25 million deal, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

“That’s been a part of our process, understanding the dynamics and the relationships and it’s clear he’s a big part of this team and a big part of the preparation and comfort level for the pitchers,” Zaidi told Hernandez.

The Dodgers still made sure to proceed with a Plan B just in case Ellis falters for a second straight year. Los Angeles acquired switch-hitting catcher Yasmani Grandal from the San Diego Padres in the blockbuster deal that sent fan favorite and franchise cornerstone Matt Kemp out of town.

The former 12th overall pick in the 2010 draft will be tasked with living up to some lofty expectations in the eyes of most Dodgers fans simply because of who the team traded away in order to get him.

Grandal has batted just .224 since testing positive for testosterone in November 2012. His return to the field in 2013 was cut short by a season-ending knee injury, but he did hit 15 home runs while playing half of his games in spacious Petco Park last year.

What’s more, Grandal batted .328 in 19 games in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, according to J.P. Hoornstra of InsideSocal.com.

Grandal recently described his knee as being “110 percent” improved compared to a year ago, per Hoornstra.

“It’s the reason I went to the Dominican Republic to make sure I was right,” said Grandal. “I think I showed I was right and that’s why so many teams started calling in afterwards.”

Ellis will likely be Kerhaw’s personal catcher because of their close relationship on and off the field, while Grandal undoubtedly offers more pop in the lineup along with a fine .350 career on-base percentage and elite pitch-framing ability.

According to Hoornstra, manager Don Mattingly held a meeting with both of his catchers but has yet to determine an arrangement for their playing time in 2015.

“A.J. couldn’t put it any better: Whatever it takes to win,” said Grandal, per Hoornstra. “If that day A.J. is the man for the job behind the plate and we are going to get a win with A.J. behind the plate, that’s going to be him. At the end of the day, if we get a win, that’s a team win and we all get a ring.”

Look for Mattingly to form a platoon based on matchups when it comes to his catcher on any given night.

 

Center Field

The battle to become the starting center fielder for the Dodgers this season will come down to a seasoned veteran and a highly touted prospect.

It’s going to be to Andre Ethier vs. Joc Pederson.

Ethier was the odd man out last season, an unlucky victim of the team’s outfield logjam. The eight-year veteran was banished to the bench in favor of Carl Crawford, who solidified himself as the everyday left fielder. Yasiel Puig patrolled center and Kemp played right.

With Kemp now out of the picture, the Dodgers plan to move Puig back to his natural position in right field, where the team can utilize his strong throwing arm to its maximum potential. Crawford will be back in left field, which means center field is wide open, and Ethier expects to reclaim a starting role, per Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times.

It was fun trying to win the way we did last year, but it didn’t prove any more successful than me playing every day or not playing every day. I’d rather play every day and help this team win — or whatever team it is — to the best of my ability. I feel I can, if given a role. As I stand here today, I’m preparing every day to be a starting outfielder for the Dodgers, until I’m told otherwise. I’m not changing my mind about that. It’s probably going to be a little less wanting to take the same role as I did last year.

The problem that Mattingly has with simply handing Ethier back his starting gig is multifaceted.

First of all, Ethier is coming off the worst season of his career, one that saw him bat .249 with just four home runs and 42 RBI in 341 at-bats.

“You put up the numbers, you play. It’s pretty simple,” Mattingly said, per Eric Stephen of True Blue LA. “You perform, you compete, and if you win the job, you’re playing.”

Ethier clearly didn’t put up numbers worthy of everyday playing time a season ago. The argument can be made that he never was able to establish a rhythm at the plate with such sporadic at-bats, but maybe he is simply beginning his inevitable decline as a serviceable major league player. Ethier will turn 33 in April.

It’s a legitimate concern for Mattingly and the Dodgers, who must also accommodate the rise of Pederson, their top outfield prospect.

Pederson slashed .303/.435/.582 with 135 hits and 78 RBI in 121 games at Triple-A before his September call-up last season. He became the Pacific Coast League’s first player since 1934 to hit at least 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in the same season, according to Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com.

Mattingly considers Pederson the “best defensive center fielder” on the Dodgers, per Dilbeck, and the rookie will have an opportunity to earn an everyday job at the position during spring training.

Friedman and Zaidi agree with this plan.

“I think we’ll take some time in spring training and assess that, get a feel for him in camp and how he’s handling things,” Friedman told Dilbeck. “It’ll be a discussion we’ll have with the staff and I’m sure it will be an ongoing discussion between now through the last game in March.”

If Pederson holds his own during spring training, which will comprise of more than the 39 plate appearances he made with the big club last September, the Dodgers will likely begin the season with the 22-year-old as their starting center fielder.

Ethier will presumably be unhappy starting the season on the bench yet again, but it will be difficult for Los Angeles to trade him without eating a significant portion of the $56 million he is owed through 2018. Moreover, the team may view Ethier as an above-average insurance policy in case the injury-prone Crawford feels a twinge somewhere along the way.

“I think Joc should have the opportunity to compete for the position. I don’t think we should hand anything over,” Mattingly said, per Stephen. “It’s a spot where there will be competition.”

 

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise linked/noted.

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Projecting the Dodgers’ 2015 Opening Day Roster

The Los Angeles Dodgers enter the 2015 season with a roster full of new faces, but the particular collection of players is still capable of advancing to the postseason for a third consecutive year.

Trotting out the reigning National League MVP and two-time defending Cy Young Award winner tends to legitimize a team’s chances, so the Dodgers will certainly benefit from having Clayton Kershaw on their side.

While trading away a slugger like Matt Kemp may dent the offense, the team has put a premium on defense with the new double-play combination of Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick rounding out the infield alongside returners Adrian Gonzalez and Juan Uribe at the corners.

Last season, the Dodgers were doomed by an ineffective bullpen headlined by former closers (Brian Wilson and Chris Perez) who consistently put the “has” in has-been. This year’s relief corps features a combination of wily veterans, young hopefuls and a few guys who have been brought in to see if the move to a pitcher’s park like Dodger Stadium may induce some value potentially lying dormant within them.

Here’s an early look at the projected 25-man roster that manager Don Mattingly will lead into battle on Opening Day 2015.

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Biggest Winners and Losers from Dodgers Offseason

There’s less than three months remaining until Opening Day, and the Los Angeles Dodgers look decidedly different than they did at the beginning of the offseason.

For starters, the front office was stripped down and replaced with a new regime headed by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi.

The metrics-minded duo wasted little time revamping the roster, trading away several popular players in an effort to improve the team in less noticeable ways while saving money and replenishing the farm system.

Los Angeles also saw other players walk away, either for a lucrative deal elsewhere in free agency or simply because they were no longer wanted.

It has been one of the busiest winters for the Dodgers in recent years, and there’s still time for more moves to be made before the regular season begins. For now, though, here are the winners and losers from the first three months of the team’s offseason.

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3 Missing Pieces the Dodgers Could Still Land This Winter

One of the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ biggest weaknesses last season was their bullpen.

It was no secret, and the numbers didn’t lie. Los Angeles relievers in 2014 surrendered more earned runs than 18 other bullpens in the majors, and only four other relief corps finished the year with a higher walk rate.

While the Dodgers have revamped their roster in a myriad of ways this offseason, the bullpen could still use some shoring up considering its main additions this winter have been Joel Peralta, Juan Nicasio and Chris Hatcher. None of those names represent what most teams would consider lockdown arms out of the pen.

The previous Los Angeles front office under the guidance of former general manager Ned Colletti also took some heat for the failed former closer experiment he initiated by signing Brian Wilson and Chris Perez prior to the 2014 season.

Although both right-handers are no longer part of the team, President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman and new general manager Farhan Zaidi should not completely avoid adding former closers if they are available—especially if they have a relatively consistent track record of success.

 

Casey Janssen

A former closer for the Toronto Blue Jays, Casey Janssen could be a solid free-agent signing for the Dodgers as a potential late-inning option in advance of closer Kenley Jansen. 

The right-hander emerged as a reliable option for the Blue Jays from 2011-2013, during which time he averaged a 2.77 ERA and 3.04 xFIP.

He continued to perform well as closer through the first half of 2014 before a bout with food poisoning derailed his season and likely caused his value on the market to plummet. During Janssen‘s first 22 innings of 2014, he turned in a pristine 1.23 ERA. Following the July sickness, he coughed up a 6.46 ERA in roughly the same number of innings.

Janssen lost exclusive closing duties as a result of the implosion and finished the season with a 3.94 ERA and 4.22 xFIP. Los Angeles may have a buy-low opportunity with the 33-year-old, as he still has not been scooped up on the open market and would not be required to close games for the Dodgers.

 

Rafael Soriano

A reliever who has found himself in a similar position to Janssen is free agent Rafael Soriano, formerly of the Washington Nationals.

During his two-year stint with Washington, Soriano posted a 3.15 ERA, 7.7 K/9 and saved 75 games. His consistency is illustrated by the fact that he has recorded an ERA north of 3.19 just once since 2006.

However, the 35-year-old also experienced struggles halfway through 2014. He had five blown saves following the All-Star break and seven overall, which was a career high. The younger Drew Storen eventually supplanted him as closer by the end of the season.

Soriano continued to struggle in the late-inning relief role, allowing at least one run in more than half of his September appearances.

Although free-agent relievers like Andrew Miller, David Robertson and Luke Gregerson received hefty offers in free agency this offseason, Soriano should expect a pay cut from the $14 million he made during each of the past two seasons.

The Dodgers will most likely use Soriano in the seventh or eighth inning if they bring him aboard. Giving him $10 million per year might be too much for Friedman and Zaidi considering how a similar deal with Wilson backfired last season.

Something in the range of two years and $10-12 million might make more sense. Whether or not Soriano agrees to that type of deal is a different story.

 

Francisco Rodriguez

While Soriano is due for a pay cut, veteran right-hander Francisco Rodriguez is expecting a raise this winter.

That’s because he looked like the K-Rod of old last season, notching 44 saves for the Milwaukee Brewers and finishing with a 3.04 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and a 9.7 K/9 ratio. It’s safe to say he has re-established himself on the market and will not accept anything less than the $3.25 million he made in 2014.

Rodriguez’s resurgence stemmed from the .216 BABIP he induced, the lowest mark since his electrifying rookie year with the Angels more than a decade ago. Over the course of his 13-year career, Rodriguez has posted an ERA above 3.16 just twice.

His 69 appearances last year highlighted noteworthy durability as well.

However, there are some red flags the Dodgers may have already noticed. His 4.50 FIP in 2014 was nearly a run-and-a-half higher than his ERA and the 14 home runs he coughed up were a career high.

Rodriguez will turn 33 later this week.

 

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise linked/noted.


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3 Offseason Questions That the Dodgers Still Need to Answer

The Los Angeles Dodgers may have revamped their roster this offseason with a flurry moves during the winter meetings, but there are still questions remaining now that the dust has settled for the time being.

New president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman believes that the roster shakeup has allowed the Dodgers to become “highly functional,” according to MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick, even though last season’s squad functioned well enough to win 94 games and take the NL West division crown.

So what exactly does Friedman perceive as more functional about the 2015 Dodgers?

Advanced metrics indicate that the team’s defense up the middle of the infield—with Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick—is superior to last season’s double-play combination of Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon.

The back end of the starting rotation is younger with Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson. Yasmani Grandal should provide some much-needed offensive punch from the catcher position, and manager Don Mattingly will be able to breathe a little easier when it comes to shuffling highly paid outfielders in and out of the lineup now that a sometimes-moody Matt Kemp is down in San Diego.

But not everything has been tied up in a nice little bow just yet. There are still question marks facing the Dodgers with the regular season only three months away.

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Dodgers’ Biggest Steal at the MLB Offseason’s 2-Month Mark

With the flurry of moves that the Los Angeles Dodgers have made this offseason, it’s difficult to hone in on just one.

After all, some of these deals were interconnected, a web of swift transformation ushered in by the metric-minded tandem now running the front office at Dodger Stadium: Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi.

The current Dodgers roster looks noticeably different than the one that walked off the Busch Stadium field in early October as a second consecutive postseason was cut short by the pesky St. Louis Cardinals. But the recent changes appear to be for the best. Several positions have been upgraded—both offensively as defensively—while the team has improved its depth all while retaining the top prospects.

If there’s one move that stands apart from the rest as a bona fide steal this offseason, it’s the acquisition of second baseman Howie Kendrick.

Speaking of steals, it’s a coincidence that Kendrick will be replacing last season’s stolen-base leader in Dee Gordon.

But make no mistake, Kendrick over Gordon at second base is a definite upgrade for the Dodgers.

 

On the Surface

Sure, Los Angeles parted ways with a dynamic game-changer in the speedy Gordon when he was shipped to Miami. But upon closer inspection, Kendrick’s .347 on-base percentage trumped Gordon’s in 2014. As the old saying goes, “You can’t steal first base.”

Gordon turned heads around baseball with his first half last season. The former shortstop switched positions in spring training, won the second base job and ran with it—literally. His 105 hits and 43 stolen bases during the first half earned him an All-Star nod after his Dodgers career appeared to be in jeopardy before the season. It was a feel-good story in every sense of the word.

Those numbers would suffer post All-Star Game, however, and Gordon stole far fewer bags in the second half simply because wasn’t getting on base as much. 

Gordon’s underwhelming second-half performance was more indicative of his career  numbers, and Los Angeles’ new front office sniffed out what may have been an anomaly in the first half of 2014. Friedman and Zaidi decided to send Gordon to his home state of Florida in exchange for pitching prospect Andrew Heaney, who was then flipped to the Angels for Kendrick.

 

Digging Deeper

The Dodgers’ new front office—Zaidi in particular—is well-versed in advanced metrics. Before joining the Dodgers, Zaidi worked under Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane, the pioneer of incorporating advanced metrics into baseball.

When analyzing the two second basemen in question, the metrics don’t lie.

Kendrick has been one of the best offensive second baseman over the past few seasons in terms of a metric called “weighted runs created plus” or wRC+. Since 2011, Kendrick has posted 115, 117, 103 and 123 when it comes to wRC+.

Not only does Kendrick provide an upgrade over Gordon on offense, his defense is also superior to the Dodgers’ former second baseman.

Once again, the front office surely examined the pertinent metrics when evaluating Gordon and Kendrick.

A common barometer used to value a player’s defense is a metric called defensive runs saved (DRS). Zero is considered average, 10 is great and minus-10 is poor. According to FangraphsKendrick’s DRS ranked seventh among all second basemen with at least 500 innings played last season. Gordon’s minus-five DRS ranked 25th.

When it came down to it, the Dodgers needed to answer an important question regarding Gordon this winter: Was the second half of last season merely a slump or was it more indicative of his true self?

By trading Gordon, Los Angeles essentially sold high and bet that he will never again reach that early-2014 level on a consistent basis. The Dodgers opted to bring in a proven commodity like Kendrick, perfectly mindful that he has just one year left on his current contract.

“There are a lot of different ways it can play out, but we’re excited to have him,” Friedman told Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times. “All of our focus right now is on the 2015 season.”

The focus for Los Angeles should not be on the departure of a fan favorite like Gordon. The Dodgers should feel about their fortunes after reeling in an underrated player like Kendrick, a solidly consistent performer who happens to be the team’s biggest steal of the offseason thus far.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.


 

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Reassessing the Dodgers’ Offseason Plan and Breaking Down What’s Next

It didn’t take long for the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ new front office to leave its mark on the city and franchise this offseason.

In a span of 24 hours during the recent winter meetings, President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi orchestrated deals that saw the Dodgers plug a hole at shortstop, replace their All-Star second baseman and dump a former franchise cornerstone seemingly without a moment’s hesitation.

When the dust settled, it appeared Los Angeles had improved its roster in a variety of ways—albeit perhaps more subtly than usual. And if last week’s flurry was any indication, the new conductors of this Dodgers train surely have more up their sleeve between now and the start of spring training.

 

Advanced Metrics

The hiring of Friedman and Zaidi shortly after the Dodgers were eliminated early in October signaled a cultural shift within the organization.

Both staunch believers in the concept of advanced metrics, Friedman and Zaidi cultivated the practice in the small markets of Tampa Bay and Oakland, respectively, where a lack of financial flexibility called for shrewd, cost-effective baseball decisions.

In fact, Zaidi spent time working directly under Athletics general manager Billy Beane, who gained national recognition through Michael Lewis’ 2003 book, Moneyball, and the 2011 film of the same name.

When analyzing the metrics of the Dodgers roster they inherited from former general manager Ned Colletti, Friedman and Zaidi probably noticed that the defense could use some work. After all, there was a gaping hole at shortstop. Los Angeles chose not to re-sign Hanley Ramirez primarily because of his defensive shortcomings.

A common barometer used to value a player’s defense is a metric called defensive runs saved (DRS). Zero is considered average, 10 is great and minus-10 is poor. According to Fangraphs, Ramirez ranked 29th among all shortstops who played at least 500 innings at the position last season with minus-nine DRS.

When Ramirez commanded a contract that the Dodgers probably deemed too expensive given his age and declining defense, Friedman and Zaidi opted to go in a different direction. Rather than completely sacrifice offense by rolling the dice on a sure-handed, yet unproven, in-house option like Erisbel Arruebarrena, the Dodgers acquired Jimmy Rollins from the Philadelphia Phillies, per ESPN’s Buster Olney

Last season, Rollins ranked 10th in DRS among shortstops with at least 500 innings under their belt, per Fangraphs. He also produced a higher on-base percentage, four more home runs and 14 more stolen bases than Ramirez.

For a moment, it looked like Rollins and second baseman Dee Gordon were going to constitute the 2015 double-play combination for the Dodgers. But Los Angeles then traded their all-star infielder to the Miami Marlins in exchange for four prospects, per Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.

The major haul for the Dodgers in the deal was Andrew Heaney, MLB.com’s top-ranked pitching prospect in all of baseball heading into 2014. Heaney didn’t stick around very long, though, as Los Angeles quickly flipped the southpaw across town in exchange for the Angels veteran second baseman Howie Kendrick.

Yes, the Dodgers gave up a dynamic game-changer in the speedy Gordon. But upon closer inspection, Kendrick’s .347 on-base percentage trumped Gordon’s in 2014. As the old saying goes, “You can’t steal first base.”

Moreover, Kendrick’s DRS ranked seventh among all second basemen with at least 500 innings played last season, per Fangraphs. Gordon’s minus-five DRS ranked 25th.

 

Saving Money

Although Friedman and Zaidi now have more money to work with than they ever could have dreamed of in Tampa and Oakland, the pair remains committed to their cost-effective approach to improving the team.

Financial flexibility was lacking within the Dodgers organization last season. Former general manager Ned Colletti shoulders some of the blame for that reality, as does the Guggenheim Baseball Management ownership group that gave Colletti permission to dole out massive player contracts in order to re-establish the Dodgers’ brand following the tumultuous Frank McCourt era.

Los Angeles’ Opening Day payroll in 2014 came out to $229.3 million, the highest in the majors.

Regarding the 30-year-old Ramirez, the Dodgers were simply not willing to give him anything close to the $88 million over four years that he received from the Boston Red Sox last month.

The Dodgers’ top prospect, Corey Seager, plays shortstop but by all accounts, will not be ready for full-time MLB service until 2016. That’s why Los Angeles nabbed Rollins, a player whose contract comes off the books following the 2015 season but someone who should make for a quality stopgap next year.

One of the loftiest contracts that Colletti handed out was the eight-year, $160-million commitment to Matt Kemp. Not only did the outfielder miss most of 2012 and 2013 due to various injuries, those same injuries had seemingly sapped Kemp of his defensive capability. According to FangraphsKemp registered a minus-23 in DRS, the worst among qualifying MLB outfielders in 2014.

Kemp’s hefty contract and poor defensive metrics contradicted two of the central ideals that Friedman and Zaidi champion.

It’s why Kemp was a prime piece to be moved in a trade, and that’s exactly what the Dodgers did when they sent him to the San Diego Padres in exchange for catcher Yasmani Grandal, pitcher Joe Wieland and pitching prospect Zach Eflin, per Kirk Kenney and Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

It also helped that Kemp’s value was higher than it had been in three years because of his resurgent second half at the plate in 2014.

Los Angeles agreed to eat $32 million of the $107 million remaining on Kemp’s contract, thereby immediately freeing up $75 million while reducing the well-documented outfield logjam at Dodger Stadium.

For good measure, the Dodgers recently agreed to deals with starting pitchers Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports and ESPN’s Buster Olney. The common denominator between McCarthy and Anderson—besides being Twitter-savvy—is that they are both former Athletics and thus catch the eye of Zaidi.

While it can be argued that McCarthy’s four-year $48-million contract is excessive for a pitcher with a career 4.09 ERA, Friedman and Zaidi may be looking a little deeper. Sure, McCarthy’s most recent work was a stellar second half of 2014 with the Yankees. Even that might be an anomaly, though. Historically, McCarthy has struggled in hitter-friendly parks like Yankee Stadium.

But what about spacious parks like Dodger Stadium?

A reasonable comparison is O.co Coliseum, home of the A’s. McCarthy’s ERA during his two seasons with Oakland was lower than it has been with any other team throughout his nine-year career. As a No. 4 starter in Los Angeles, there will also be less pressure on McCarthy. Plus he will be working with one of the game’s best pitching coaches in Rick Honeycutt.

Anderson’s $10 million deal is incentive-laden due to his extensive injury history. But Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register points out an interesting piece of information that gives this signing the potential to be another cost-saving steal for the Dodgers in today’s high-stakes pitching market:

Although there is major injury risk associated with Anderson, Los Angeles appears confident the can provide better upside than Dan Haren, who was shipped to Miami in the Gordon deal.

 

What’s Next?

Whenever a team pulls off six transactions involving 17 players in a matter of two days, it’s probably a good bet that more moves are on the way.

The Dodgers certainly addressed some issues—filling out the back end of the starting rotation, finding a replacement at shortstop and replenishing the farm system—but what’s to say these recent acquisitions will even make it to spring training wearing Dodger blue?

Just ask Andrew Heaney or Stan Kasten.

The Dodgers president recently shared similar sentiments with Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register:

I’ve always said to my GMs, the roster you have in December or January is not the roster you’ll need or want or have in August or September or October. They’re always going to be needs that arise, holes that have to be filled, adjustments or improvements that you need to make. So whatever you do, don’t ever think you’re finished.

One option that has been dangled around the league and whose name always seems linked to the Dodgers is Cole Hamels. The veteran Phillies southpaw will turn 31 later this month and is owed $94 million over the next four years.

With statistically comparable pitchers Max Scherzer and James Shields set to rake in contracts north of $100 million, Friedman and Zaidi might view Hamels as a bargain, and they’ve clearly shown how much they like a good bargain.

The additions of McCarthy and Anderson would seemingly take Los Angeles out of the Hamels sweepstakes, but if the Dodgers are willing to dump a resurgent fan favorite in Kemp, there’s no telling what the team might do if it means a better chance at reeling in a pitcher like Hamels.

Stay tuned.

 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise linked/noted.


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3 Potential Trade Targets for the Dodgers at MLB Winter Meetings

As the MLB winter meetings kick off in San Diego this week, the Los Angeles Dodgers seem primed to pull the trigger on a trade.

Who that trade will involve remains to be seen, but chances are that one of the team’s high-priced outfielders may be on his way out the door. Various reports out of Southern California indicate that Matt Kemp is drawing the most interest from around the league after his resurgent 2014 campaign.

But the front-office tandem of Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi may be more interested in dealing Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford, both left-handed hitting outfielders whose contracts are worth more than their recent production on the field.

It appeared that Los Angeles had actually worked out a trade that would have sent Ethier to the Arizona Diamondbacks for catcher Miguel Montero, but Arizona ownership stepped in and nixed the exchange, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

There was also a report from USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale that the Dodgers were aggressively pursuing Chicago White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez in a trade in order to replace Hanley Ramirez.

However, the possibility of handing over prospects for what will probably amount to a one-year placeholder for top prospect Corey Seager makes it more likely that Los Angeles rolls the dice with in-house shortstops such as Miguel Rojas and Erisbel Arruebarrena in 2015.

Dumping salary seems to be near the top of the Dodgers’ priority list this winter, and it’s very conceivable that the team may make a trade in order to bolster the back end of the starting rotation.

Let’s take a look at three realistic trade targets for Los Angeles as hot-stove action at the winter meetings continues to gain more traction.

 

Taijuan Walker

It’s been confirmed multiple times now: The Seattle Mariners have their eye on Matt Kemp.

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports first publicized the interest last November, and then Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported that the outfielder’s name came up again in the Pacific Northwest before last season’s trade deadline.

With the Dodgers making it known that they are looking to rid themselves of a large outfielder contract as soon as possible, it comes as no surprise that the Mariners recently entered negotiations. 

According to Bob Dutton of The News Tribunethe Dodgers inquired about two of Seattle’s talented, young starting pitchers.

The Mariners were close to a deal to land Kemp before the Dodgers, on reflection, insisted that either Taijuan Walker or James Paxton be included in the swap. 

Since the Mariners backed off when, at that point, they hadn’t yet signed Cruz, they seem less likely now to buckle. That suggests a deal could hinge on what offers the Dodgers get from other clubs.

These talks occurred before the Mariners signed outfielder Nelson Cruz, so they may be less willing to part with Walker or Paxton now that a coveted right-handed power bat is in the fold.

Walker, 22, compiled a 2.61 ERA in 38 major league innings last season, striking out 34 and walking 18. Since the Dodgers already have two quality lefties in their rotation with Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu, targeting Walker in a trade makes more sense as a way to balance the left-handed starters with right-handers.

Los Angeles will probably continue to dangle a seemingly revitalized Kemp in front of the Mariners during the next few days, and it’s entirely possible that these two teams reopen negotiations.

 

Andrew Cashner

The San Diego Padres have also been linked to Matt Kemp in recent days. According to Nightengale, the team that plays a few blocks away from where the winter meetings are heating up appears to be a front-runner to land the high-priced outfielder.

Nightengale mentions catcher Yasmani Grandal as the key piece that Los Angeles would be receiving in the potential trade, but he also notes that another player may be heading the Dodgers’ way.

The identity of this other player is unknown, but it would make sense for Los Angeles to pursue starting pitcher Andrew Cashner. Similar to Seattle’s Walker, Cashner represents another talented right-hander who turned in an impressive 2014 season and could fit perfectly into the back of the Dodgers rotation.

Cashner struck out 93 batters and walked just 29 in 123.1 innings of work, putting together a 2.55 ERA in the process. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2013, the 28-year-old has posted a 2.96 ERA in 51 starts while holding opponents to a .234 batting average.

He won’t become free agent-eligible for two more years and is due to make $3-4 million in 2015, a price range that would fit perfectly into the Dodgers’ cost-saving approach.

 

Cole Hamels

The flashiest trade target for the Dodgers is Philadelphia Phillies ace Cole Hamels, but any deal to pry him away from The City of Brotherly Love would require Friedman and Zaidi to part with multiple prospects whom they love.

Los Angeles engaged the Phillies for Hamels at the trade deadline last season to no avail. According to Nightengale (h/t Dave Cameron of FanGraphs), Philadelphia’s general manager, Ruben Amaro Jr., demanded the Dodgers’ prospect trifecta of Seager, Joc Pederson and pitching phenom Julio Urias.

Los Angeles was reluctant to meet the Phillies’ high asking price, but a recent Nightengale report claiming that talks are reopened seems to indicate that Philadelphia has perhaps tempered its wish list.

Hamels is owed $90 million over the next four seasons ($110 million if his 2019 option is picked up). The 30-year-old southpaw compiled a 2.46 ERA in 204.2 innings last season and has been one of the most consistently successful pitchers throughout the last half-decade.

Rosenthal last week offered further details about a possible Hamels-to-Los Angeles trade.

The Dodgers could acquire Hamels without his consent — they are not one of the 20 teams on his no-trade list, according to sources. The team could even expand the deal to include shortstop Jimmy Rollins, who would be an appealing one-year bridge to Seager. Rollins, 36, has full no-trade protection as a player with 10 years of service and five consecutive with the same club, but might approve a deal to a large market such as Los Angeles.

The Dodgers may be particularly interested in a proven winner like Hamels because of the strong likelihood that Zack Greinke will opt out of his current contract following the 2015 season. Fitting Hamels in Dodger Blue would provide some comfort in the event that Greinke does indeed walk next winter.

Hamels in Los Angeles also ensures that the Dodgers’ starting rotation next season would be one of the most fearsome in recent memory.

 

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise linked/noted.

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5 Dodgers Predictions for the 2014 Winter Meetings

The Major League Baseball winter meetings are set to kick off in a week, and the Los Angeles Dodgers are likely to be active players in Southern California.

New president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi have already made several minor moves since taking over the front office in October, but there are still question marks facing the team in the midst of a culture shift.

Although the Dodgers are still one of the richest organizations in baseball, the tactic of throwing money at elite free agents has seemingly been replaced by a more analytical and cost-effective approach to improving the team.

Here are five predictions for what Los Angeles will ultimately decide to do at the upcoming winter meetings.

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3 Potential Offseason Moves the Dodgers Missed out On

The Los Angeles Dodgers front office has begun wheeling and dealing this offseason, acquiring low-cost pitching help over the past two weeks.

New President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman went the familiar route with his first move, trading for former Tampa Bay Rays reliever Joel Peralta and Rays minor league left-hander Adam Liberatore.

Los Angeles then announced it had acquired pitchers Mike Bolsinger from the Arizona Diamondbacks and Juan Nicasio from the Colorado Rockies in low-risk deals. The hope with these trades is that by removing the aforementioned hurlers from hitter-friendly parks in Phoenix and Denver, respectively, perhaps they will be able to find more success pitching in spacious Dodger Stadium.

There have also been a few moves that the Dodgers could have made but didn’t.

 

Andrew Bailey

Relief pitching was the Dodgers’ biggest weakness last season, and the team had an opportunity to buy low on a bullpen arm who was dominant enough to win Rookie of the Year as recently as 2009. Not only was Andrew Bailey the American League‘s best rookie five years ago, but the right-hander has also been a two-time All-Star.

The New York Yankees inked the 30-year-old Bailey to a minor league contract earlier this month, realizing that he has the potential to be a dominant pitcher when healthy. Bailey posted a 2.07 ERA over 174 innings between 2009-2011 but has undergone two surgeries since then and hasn’t pitched in the majors since July 2013.

Although injuries will now always be a concern with Bailey, the Dodgers could have taken a flier on the reliever to help shore up their mediocre bullpen. He probably would have come at a very affordable price, too.

 

Zach Duke

Zach Duke is another quality relief pitcher that Los Angeles decided against signing. Instead, the White Sox acquired the left-hander’s services when he accepted their three-year, $15 million offer, per Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com.

Duke turned in the best season of his career in 2014 with the Milwaukee Brewers, compiling a 2.45 ERA in just over 58 innings of work. His 74 strikeouts were nearly double the amount he recorded during the previous three seasons combined.

The Dodgers could use all the bullpen help they can get at this point, and they may have been able to nab Duke for less than what the White Sox paid simply because they are positioned to win now while Chicago is rebuilding.

Duke, who limited opposing hitters to a .223 average last season, would have made a nice left-handed addition to the Dodgers bullpen to complement J.P. Howell.

 

Russell Martin

The argument could be made that Los Angeles needs an upgrade at catcher after A.J. Ellis mustered a measly .191/.323/.254 slash at the plate last season.

One of the biggest names on the free-agent market was Russell Martin, but the Dodgers were not prepared to take the financial plunge necessary to bring the backstop back to Los Angeles.

Instead, Martin followed the money home to Toronto, where the Blue Jays welcomed him with a five-year, $82 million contract, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick and The Associated Press.

Martin’s 5.5 wins above replacement (WAR) with Pittsburgh in 2014 were the most among all projected free-agent position players. He also led major league catchers by throwing out 37 base stealers a season ago, and his caught stealing percentage of 38.5 was much higher than Ellis’ 25 percent.

The Dodgers’ new front office has shown a commitment to cost-saving strategies so far this offseason, so signing Martin was almost completely out of the question because of the type of contract that the catcher and his agent were demanding.

 

All statistics courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise linked/noted.


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