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Ranking the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Top 10 Prospects

For all of the doubters, take a look at where the Pirates’ overall organizational depth is right now compared to where it was at this point three seasons ago.

While it doesn’t currently show at the major league level, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington and staff have done a tremendous job of loading up the organization with young talent.

For a change, the Pirates have “real” prospects in the organization, and that’s a positive sign that things will eventually turn around. Now that another successful draft is over for the Pirates, I thought I’d take a look at the top 10 prospects currently in the organization.

This list was harder to cut down to 10 than I originally thought, so enjoy and feel free to comment with your top 10.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez Is In Fact the Real Deal

With all the prospects the Pittsburgh Pirates have attempted to accumulate over the years, none have had the pedigree of Pedro Alvarez.  With the attempt made to focus on the draft the last three seasons, no pick has generated the buzz around Pittsburgh that Alvarez did.  Alvarez tore through minor league pitching and a little over a year after making his professional debut, got the call to the big leagues.

While many (myself included) felt it was way to early to summon Alvarez to PNC Park, he got the call anyway.  Despite Pirates General Manager Neil Huntington proclaiming just hours earlier that “Alvarez isn’t ready,” the Pirates front office caved in to fan backlash and called up Alvarez.

What did they get in return?  They got a kid that looked lost and over-matched at the big league level.  Pedro Cerrano had a better chance of hitting a breaking ball without the help of his trusted fried Jobu, than Alvarez had a chance of making contact in any particular at bat. Pirates fans started to boo the young Alvarez and basically said “here we go again.”

Alvarez, better know as “The Savior,” got of to a whopping 9-for-57 start, with 29 strikeouts. That’s hitting at a .158 clip if you’re scoring at home.  That includes riding a five-game hit streak into July 3rd as well or the numbers would be much worse.

Then on July 3rd, Alvarez connected with his first major league homer, a solo shot off of the Phillies’ Kyle Kendrick.  Since that time, we’ve seen a different Alvarez.  We’ve seen more of the player we expected to see all along, and it’s a great sign for the Pirates. 

Take out Alvarez’s horrible start and we see a different player.  Since connecting with his first dinger, Alvarez is hitting at a .282 clip with 6 doubles, 10 homers and 25 RBI.  Over a 30 game span I will take those results.  Project that out for an entire season and you are looking at a guy that will put up some serious numbers.

Has Alvarez looked like a rookie at times?  Absolutely, and he will continue to do so.  Has he looked like a stud at times as well? Absolutely, and he will have more days like that than he will bad days.

It was a special moment Saturday night when Alvarez hit his three-run walk-off in the 10th inning against the Colorado Rockies.  Pirates fans should get used to that feeling, as Alvarez will continue to put up big numbers in Pittsburgh for a long time.

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Who Should Be the Pirates Closer for 2011?

Not that it matters much for the rest of the season, but the last two months could go a long way to determine jobs for next season. One job being auditioned for is next year’s closer between Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek.

Both have had outstanding seasons in set-up roles. Meek made the All-Star team. Hanrahan leads the entire team in strikeouts, despite throwing only 48.1 innings on the season.

You can make a strong case for both; I will make my case for Hanrahan. 

Everyone knows that getting the final three outs is much more difficult than getting the prior 24 outs in the game. It takes a special mental make-up, something I feel both guys have.

Hanrahan offers a little more experience closing games, but that shouldn’t have much of an impact in manager John Russell’s decision.

However, the one real weapon that Hanrahan offers a little more than Meek is the strikeout. He has the ability to pitch himself out of trouble a little more often. His fastball can hit 98 mph on the radar gun and if he is throwing his slider down in the zone, it’s nearly unhittable.

Both guys have shown that they can get outs late in games. However, when the tying run is on third with only one out, I have more confidence in Hanrahan to get out of that jam.

Either guy would do a fine job in the role. I feel Meek would be more suited for an 8th inning role for a season before becoming the closer. 

Let both guys get the opportunity for the rest of the season. It will be good for both of them to have the experience and gain the confidence. It’s a good situation for the Pirates to have with two power arms at the back end of the bullpen. 

Hopefully both guys continue to pitch well and it won’t matter who gets the ball at the end of the game.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Acquire Chris Snyder; What’s Ryan Doumit’s Future?

The Pirates had another busy trade deadline, but unlike years past, this year there were no salary dumps or accumulation of prospects. The Pirates made three trades today and all appear to be good baseball moves.

The Pirates acquired catcher Chris Snyder and minor league shortstop Pedro Ciriaco from the Arizona Diamondbacks, in exchange for Ryan Church, Bobby Crosby and D.J. Carrasco.

They also sent closer Octavio Dotel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for right-hander James McDonald and minor league outfielder Andrew Lambo.

In addition, Pittsburgh sent Javier Lopez to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for right hander Joe Martinez and outfielder John Bowker.

Give the Pirates some credit for being able to sign some veteran relievers in the off-season that they were able to turn into young arms.

The biggest move of the day though was acquiring Snyder. It also now leaves a big question on what to do with Ryan Doumit. Snyder has the reputation of being one of the game’s better defensive catchers, something the Pirates desperately need.

He should be able to help the pitching staff out as well, as Snyder is know for being able to handle a staff, something Doumit wasn’t capable of doing.

The Pirates did well with this move. While Snyder doesn’t do much as an average hitter, his offensive numbers are comparable to Doumit’s, who doesn’t offer much of anything.

Snyder is hitting .231 on the year, while Doumit is only hitting .258. Snyder’s hit ten homers and driven in 32 runs, while Doumit has hit eight homers and driven in 32. The improvement though is defensively.

Snyder is known for being a glove man and has a good arm behind the dish, while Doumit is the worst catcher in the game today. Doumit won’t be behind the plate very often (Thank God) anymore and the Pirates young pitchers will benefit from it.

What do you do now with Doumit, though? It’s a shame that his fragile self got hurt again right before the deadline or there is a good chance he would have got dealt.

The immediate plan is to make him the everyday right fielder and that is just an awful idea.

In six seasons as a pro, Doumit has done absolutely nothing to warrant regular playing time, yet the Pirates keep finding ways to get his “bat” into the lineup. What bat?

Doumit has had one decent year offensively as a pro, in 2008 when he hit .318. That same season, he also set career highs in homers (15) and RBI (69). Still very below average numbers, though.

Yet, the Pirates continue to run him out there and bat him in the middle of the order often when his track record clearly shows he’s not a talented offensive player.

He’s hit over .260 only one other time (.274 in 2007), reached double digits in homers only one other time (10 in 2009) and other than his 69-RBI season of 2008 has never driven in more than 40 runs in a season.

Not to mention he is a huge liability no matter where you put him on the field defensively.

It’s a shame the Pirates are thinking about putting him in right field. You have to feel bad for Lastings Milledge.

First he has to platoon with Ryan Church, who was hitting .180 on the season and now he will lose at-bats to Doumit. Once he started playing everyday again, all Milledge has done is hit.

When guys are on base, Milledge drrives in runs, hitting over .380 with runners in scoring position, something Doumit would know nothing about.

It’s a disgrace to keep giving Doumit at bats. Now that the Pirates have better talent, they should run their best eight guys out there on a nightly basis.

There is nothing wrong with having Doumit as a bench player, getting a spot start every now and then, but he shouldn’t be getting regular playing time.

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Can We Now Stop Complaining About The Nate McLouth Trade?

For those that haven’t been paying much attention, your once favorite player Nate McLouth was sent down to the minors by the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday.  Can we please now quit complaining about the trade?

After being dealt away from Pittsburgh, McLouth just wasn’t very good for Atlanta, especially this year where he was hitting .168 on the season.  I’ve said it before and I will say it again.  Being the best player on a bad team makes you nothing more than that. 

It doesn’t make you are great or a superstar.  It certainly doesn’t make you anything special, yet most casual fans are still upset over the deal.  There are fifty Nate McLouth type players in the big leagues right now.

Granted, he was the best player on the 2008 Pirates team.  He was an all-star and won a gold glove, but his numbers were nothing more than above average.  He hit .276 that season with 26 homers and 94 RBI’s.  Solid numbers, but nothing that would make him untouchable.

As for the trade, in which the Pirates received Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernadez and Jeff Locke.  I liked it then and feel it can still work out well for the Pirates.  If Neil Huntington could go back and do it over, I’m sure he wouldn’t pass on the deal. 

Not to mention that dealing McLouth opened up a spot for Andrew McCutchen to be promoted.

Yes, Morton has been terrible this season, but he showed at the end of last season that he has the ability to pitch at this level.  Hopefully he can figure things out in the minors and become a solid middle of the rotation guy for the Pirates for a few years.

Hernandez still has a ton of upside.  While it likely won’t be with the Pirates, he still has value and can be used a valuable trade chip.

Locke was the biggest return in the trade and it’s still to be determined on how that will work out, but he’s having an outstanding minor league season.  Between stops in Bradenton and Altoona, the lefty starter is 10-3 with a 3.22 era this season.

The McLouth trade still has a chance to work out pretty well for the Pirates.  Now if everyone can just let it go and realize that the Pirates really didn’t give up much.

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Will the Pittsburgh Pirates Ever Win on the Road?

Since this season became a wash a really long time ago, there are still several things worth keeping an eye on the rest of the season. How will the rookies perform the rest of the season? What will the Pirates do at the trading deadline? Will this season’s team lose 100 games?

All of these areas could draw the casual fans interest, but for me there is one area worth keeping an eye on that will go a long way to determining what type of season the Pirates will have in 2011. Can these guys learn to win on the road?

The Pirates are semi-respectable 23-26 at the friendly confines of PNC Park, but are a dismal 11-38 on the road; including winning only three of their last 28 road games.

Good teams tend to play at least .500 ball on the road and the Pirates haven’t come close to that of late. In the two-plus year tenure of John Russell as the Pirates manager, the Pirates are only 61-149 (as of Sunday) away from Pittsburgh- worst in baseball.

Currently there are twenty teams in the majors sitting with records above .500 and all but seven are playing above .500 ball on the road. Out of those seven, only the Mets, Rockies, Tigers and Cardinals sit more than five games under .500 away from their home ball parks.

Teams have won before without winning records on the road, but for this Pirates team to get to the point where everyone wants them to be, they have to start winning on the road, plain and simple. You can’t compete on a nightly basis when you have no chance of competing on the road.

What’s been the problem? Pretty much everything. Offensively, the Pirates are hitting only .235 as team on the road, compared to .250 at home. Neither number is very good, but they have to hit better on the road to win.

The difference is the pitching staff is more glaring. The Pirates staff has a 4.39 era at home, yet on the road there is over a runs difference where they have a 5.68 road era.

Pretty much every statistical category needs to improve on the road for them to consistently win. The biggest thing they are missing is confidence. It seems they expect to lose most of the time on the road and when one bad thing happens, it snowballs on them.

Leadership is also a problem.  The Pirates need a go-to-guy in the clubhouse.  Someone that can speak up and lead by example.  That guy has to be Andrew McCutchen.  Granted he’s only in his second season, but this has to become his team.  He needs to be the guy that changes whatever routine this team has on the road.

Everything they do must change and change for the good.

The Pirates can begin to change that culture the rest of the season. The team faces 32 more games on the road and it should be a focal point to go out and compete and win more than half of these games.

Half of losing is attitude. Let’s see the Pirates start to change that attitude by becoming successful away from home. If they wind up the season well, then maybe these guys will expect to win away from PNC park next season.

That challenge begins with the current six game road trip to Colorado and St. Louis. Hopefully they come back to Pittsburgh with at least four wins.

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Who Woke up the Pirates Bats?

Who woke up the Pirates offense after the all-star break? Whoever it was, what took you so long? The Pirates entered the break with pretty much the worse offense in baseball. It looked like it would be another long and dreadful summer, but the Bucs have come out swinging the sticks to begin the second half of the season.

So far, in six games after the all-star break, the Pirates have scored 50 runs on 77 hits, going 4-2 in that span. That averages out to a major league best 8.3 runs per game and 12.8 hits per game. Looking just at the wins after the break, the Pirates are averaging 11.75 runs and 16.25 hits. While I’m not suggesting we are looking at the 1927 Yankees, it has been a nice change of pace from what we’ve been used to seeing from the Pirates bats of late.

What’s the reason for the hot streak? I don’t want to hear that they have been playing bad teams. They have, but those same two bad teams (Houston and Milwaukee) have owned the Pirates up to this point of the season.

The main reason for the success is the approach. We haven’t seen hitters chasing many balls out of the zone. They’ve been waiting for good pitches and when they get them, they are putting good swings on the ball. Another thing I like is that the Pirates have been more aggressive early in the count. They haven’t been digging themselves into an 0-2 hole every at bat. They’ve been jumping on fastballs early, which is a good approach to have for a young team.

Even more impressive is the fact that the Pirates have been hitting well, without the services of Andrew McCutchen, who has missed the last three games nursing a shoulder injury.

Let’s take a look at some numbers through the six games after the all-star break.

McCutchen- 4-12 (.333), 3 RBI’s before he got hurt.

Jose Tabata- 10-27 (.370), 6 RBI’s.

Neil Walker- 14-26 (.538), 7 RBI’s.

Garrett Jones- 6-24 (.250), 1 HR, 5 RBI’s.

Pedro Alvarez- 10-24 (.417), 4 HR’s, 10 RBI’s.

Lastings Milledge- 9-24 (.375), 4 RBI’s.

Ronny Cedeno- 10-24 (.417), 2 RBI’s.

Delwyn Young- 5-7 (.714), 1 HR, 6 RBI’s.

As you can see, everyone other than the catcher platoon of Eric Kratz and Ryan Doumit (combined .192) are hitting well coming out of the break. Not only that, but they are driving in runs and hitting for power. The Bucs have combined for 29 extra base hits in the six games, something that has bee a huge problem all season.

I’m not suggesting that this torrid streak will continue, but it gives you a glimpse at what the Pirates could be capable of. Two things stick out at me. One is the fact that Lastings Milledge is playing everyday. Having a guy hitting a respectable .285 in the middle of the lineup is a major upgrade over a platoon with Ryan Church (currently hitting .190).

The other thing is that the rookies are starting to become legit major league ball players. They’ve made the lineup deeper and more effective. It was just 14 games ago that Alvarez was hitting .065. He has quietly got the average up to .259 with seven HR’s and 20 RBI’s in just 29 games.

Tabata looks like he is becoming a guy that will be a fixture in left field. He’s hitting .266 and has a great approach and a knack for getting on base.

Walker’s bat has been the biggest surprise for me, hitting .319. If the youngsters can keep getting on base and coming up with big hits, the rest of the lineup will prosper. All three of the rookies should see their numbers go up during the final few months of the season.

They still have a few holes, but at least for a few game stretch, we may have seen a glimpse of what could be a productive Pirates offense in the future. If they’ve done anything this last week, they saved John Russell’s job for the near future.

 

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What Exactly Is the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Long-Term Plan?

Before I get started, this isn’t a bashing of Pittsburgh general manager Neil Huntington or president Frank Coonelly, but just an overall analysis of the long term plan of the Pirates. I don’t feel Huntington has done a terrible job and should be given at least another year on the job.

Throughout the last 18 seasons, we’ve heard the word “plan” attached to the numerous Pirates re-builds. Wether it be numerous five-year plans or a three-year plan, they have all failed miserably. So what exactly is Huntington’s plan with this current group?

Let’s take a look at where the Pirates currently sit at 30-58. They are on pace to lose roughly 105 games this season. That’s fine. I didn’t expect much this year anyways. However, a majority of the public has been eyeing next season as the year the Pirates get to .500 and start to compete. 

That is just not a realistic goal. 

Hypothetically, let’s say the Pirates improve by 15 games next season off of their projected 57-105 record. A fifteen game improvement is quite a stretch, but that still would only make the Pirates a 72-90 team. Then let’s say in 2012 they improve on that and win 81 games, hitting .500. Where does that leave us?

It’s quite realistic that those numbers could be pushed back by a year. 

It’s realistic to say that without some real veteran talent—not your Ryan Church’s or Bobby Crosby’s, but some real talent—the team could be just as bad next season. That would lead to an improvement in 2012 and not hitting .500 until 2013, which means competing is 2014 or later.

Depending on which theory you subscribe to, where does that leave the team. 

The core of youngsters that include: Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln will be three, maybe four years into their first contracts. This is assuming they all become legit major league players, and it’s not a guarantee that they all do.

Will the Pirates front office make the attempt to keep them here long term to see this “plan” out? That doesn’t even include Andrew McCutchen, who surely will be due for big money when his current deal expires.

Remember, the goal here is to win a pennant and compete year in and year out. It’s not to just get to .500 and be happy. 

There is talent at Bradenton and Altoona, but they are still a couple years away. As for this year’s class that includes Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie,  they still have to be signed. If they do, they would still be a few years away from PNC park as well.

Assuming Lincoln develops, the Pirates are still thin on pitching at the big league level for the next couple of seasons. All of the talent they are counting on, including Bryan Morris, Jared Hughes, Jeff Locke, Rudy Owens, Justin Wilson, Nathan Adcock, Tim Alderson, Hunter Strickland and Aaron Pribanic are at a minimum two years away. 

Morris could be fast tracked to the big leagues, but the rest won’t be around anytime soon. That’s not even considering the fact that once the young pitchers do arrive, they will likely struggle their first go around at the major league level.

Not everything is so great down on the farm though.

Alderson has been demoted. High regarded prospects, such as Starling Marte, Tony Sanchez, Victor Black, Quienten Miller, Brock Holt and Colton Cain, have all suffered long term injuries that will push back their development.

So exactly what is the Pirates plan?

Do we wait around until at least 2014 to see if these guys are a good judge of young talent? 

More than likely, and based on past results, they aren’t. Was it worth calling up all of the young guys this season, starting their major league clocks?  Do we have to cross our fingers and hope the team can lock up all of our young players? We may have to.

I’ve said it many times before. Once the Pirates get some of their young core in place, they have to start adding to it from the outside.  They are simply not going to win a pennant operating at the current pace. 

Granted, there is more talent in the system now than at any time in the last two decades.  The Pirates overall farm system has improved from dead last to the middle of the pack.  That’s quite the improvement in a little under three years.

Most of the talent though is viewed as borderline major league talent. There are very few game changers currently in the system.  We’ve been hearing for years that this is the core they wanted to build around, so let’s see them do it. 

I have no problem this season if they deal every veteran on the current team. Trade Ryan Doumit, Zach Duke, Octavio Dotel, Church and others. They can’t quit adding talent to the system. Also, continue to draft well. The plan should be to have a continuous pipeline of talent to the majors.

As for the big club, the time is now to start to add to this group of young players. That needs to start this off season. You can’t run a major league team on nickles and dimes. 

Now the pressure is solely on owner Bob Nutting. If you don’t want to spend money or can’t spend money, then this franchise will always be a loser. You have stated you have no problem spending the necessary money.

The time is upcoming. Show us, quit telling us.

They don’t need to go out and spend $200 million on one superstar. That doesn’t make sense at the moment. What they need to do is add some quality bats and arms to the current group. They will be out there next year. Then we will see exactly what the “plan” really is.

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