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The San Francisco Giants should have made five moves this offseason in addition to re-signing free agents Jeremy Affeldt, Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro, and extending the contract of Santiago Casilla.

A big splash for a free agent like Josh Hamilton or Nick Swisher to improve left field would have made sense. However, once the Giants completed the task of bringing back their key free agents, the budget did not allow for another big ticket item.

Thus, the additional moves that the Giants should have made are not as exciting as signing a marquee free agent, but they still would have significantly improved the team.

Let’s take a deeper look at each of the moves the Giants should have made in order of their significance for the 2013 team.

(All contractual data in this article is taken from Cot’s Contracts and all statistics are from ESPN.)

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The latest free-agent buzz in Major League Baseball has surrounded three clients of Scott Boras, all currently left out in the cold of winter with spring training fast approaching.

Rafael Soriano, Kyle Lohse and Michael Bourn have yet to find new homes this offseason, in large part because all three are attached to draft-pick compensation after their former employers extended them qualifying offers.

Ultimately, Boras may get his clients the paydays they are seeking. However, unless the signing teams finished in the bottom ten in the overall standings last season, it’ll cost them a first-round pick to sign any of the Boras guys.

Rather than pony up the big bucks and a first-round pick, most teams would be wise to do their remaining winter shopping in the bargain aisles.

Need another outfielder but don’t want to shell out for Bourn? Scott Hairston remains available.

Need another starting pitcher but aren’t quite sold on Lohse as a frontline guy? Jeff Karstens, Shaun Marcum or Joe Saunders can provide value in the middle of your rotation for a reasonable sum.

And, if you need another right-handed reliever, Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Lindstrom, Vicente Padilla or Brandon Lyon can pitch at the back-end of your bullpen.

Finally, in a tepid second-base market, Kelly Johnson remains available with virtually no reported interest to this point in the offseason.

(All statistics are from Baseball Reference and all contractual data is from Cot’s Baseball Contracts).

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In Kevin Towers’ first season as the general manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks, he orchestrated a worst-to-first turnaround that brought the team from 65 wins to 94—a 29-win improvement good enough for the NL West crown in 2011.

Last season, the Diamondbacks fell back to 81 wins due in large part to the regression of the team’s star slugger, Justin Upton, as well as third baseman Ryan Roberts and starters Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy.

Upton’s on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) dropped by over 100 points from .898 in 2011 to .785 in 2012, and Towers dangled him in trade talks at the deadline. Roberts’ OPS also dropped by 100 points from .768 to .656, and he was eventually replaced at third base before being dealt to the Rays.

Kennedy’s ERA rose by more than a full run from 2.88 to 4.02, and Hudson’s ERA shot up from 3.49 to 7.35 as he battled a shoulder injury before undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery on his elbow.

The Diamondbacks went into the winter with the stated priority of upgrading at shortstop, where Stephen Drew, Willie Bloomquist and others combined to produce a .692 OPS last season.

That priority appeared to be taken care of when Towers dealt from his outfield surplus to acquire Cliff Pennington and infielder Yordy Cabrera from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for center fielder Chris Young.

Towers then flipped Cabrera to the Marlins for reliever Heath Bell, agreeing to take on more than half of the remaining $21 million owed to the reliever over the next two seasons in the process.

This was the first in a series of puzzling offseason moves by Towers. The Diamondbacks, a mid-market team, agreeing to pay that much money for a 35-year-old reliever coming off of a terrible season was a poor use of limited resources.

Towers’ next big move was to send top pitching prospect Trevor Bauer to the Cleveland Indians in a three-team deal that netted the Diamondbacks shortstop prospect Didi Gregorius, reliever Tony Sipp and first baseman Lars Anderson.

The Diamondbacks had reportedly soured on Bauer because of issues with his workout routine, inability to adapt and his problems with teammates. However, turning the third pick of the 2011 draft into a shortstop who might not be able to hit much in the big leagues after having already filled that vacancy earlier in the winter with Pennington was another questionable use of resources.

Even after trading Young, the Diamondbacks still had a surplus of outfielders among Upton, Gerardo Parra, Jason Kubel, Adam Eaton and A.J. Pollock. Yet Towers added to that surplus by signing 32-year-old outfielder Cody Ross to a three-year, $26 million deal with a fourth year club option.

Though Towers is still actively trying to deal Upton—who recently vetoed a trade—it’s still not clear why the Diamondbacks needed Ross. At 32, his decline phase is fast approaching, and he’s probably best used as a platoon player. He has a .928 career OPS against lefties compared to just .727 versus righties.

The Diamondbacks would have been better off holding onto Young than signing Ross. Young is a better, younger and cheaper version of Ross. They also should have gotten more for Bauer than Gregorius and spare parts, though Towers is apparently higher on the young shortstop than most—going as far as to compare him to Derek Jeter.

It’s also not entirely understandable why Towers has been so eager to move Upton. He’s only 25-years-old and signed to a reasonable contract through 2015. He hasn’t met the lofty expectations that come with being the first overall pick in the draft, but he’s had two outstanding seasons out of the last four, including a fourth-place finish in the NL MVP voting two seasons ago.

The constant trade rumors that have surrounded Upton during Towers’ tenure with the team make it unlikely that the two parties can go forward together much longer. At this point, Towers may have to take the best offer he can get for his star right fielder before spring training and move forward without him.

Not all of Towers’ moves have been so puzzling this winter. Signing third baseman Eric Chavez on a cheap, one-year deal and signing starter Brandon McCarthy to a two-year deal were quite sensible moves that met two of the organization’s needs without breaking the bank.

Yet the sum of his offseason moves have left fans and writers wondering: what exactly is the plan here? In the end, it seems like the general manager with a reputation for being a gunslinger is just shooting from the hip rather than executing a well-thought-out plan.

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Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn and Chris Stratton, the San Francisco Giants top three prospects according to FanGraphs, have yet to pitch above A-ball. Thus, they don’t have the professional experience needed to make the opening day roster.

Joe Panik—their second-best positional prospect—has also yet to play in the upper levels of the minor leagues. His performance at Double-A this coming season will determine how quickly he gets to the big leagues, but he’s not going to make the opening day roster unless a plague strikes the Giants middle infield.

Gary Brown—the number one prospect amongst position players—has received more minor league plate appearances than Brandon Belt, Buster Posey or Brandon Crawford, but there’s no spot for him on the opening day roster.

Hunter Pence, Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco and Andres Torres are firmly entrenched in four of the outfield spots, leaving only one opening for a bench player. Unless the Giants decide that Brown’s ceiling is that of a reserve, he’s going to start the season playing every day at Double-A or Triple-A—if he receives a promotion.

Amongst the Giants’ other top-15 prospects, reliever Heath Hembree, starter Michael Kickham and outfielders Roger Kieschnick and Francisco Peguero have the best odds of making the opening day roster.

If one of the Giants five entrenched starters were to open the season on the disabled list as Ryan Vogelsong did last season, Kickham and Giants’ minor league pitcher of the year Chris Heston would likely compete for the final rotation spot.

The Giants minor league system is short on upper level pitching prospects outside of Kickham—who had a 3.05 ERA in Double-A last season—and Heston, who put up a 2.24 ERA at the same level.

The Giants have six relievers under contract in Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, George Kontos, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez and Jose Mijares. That leaves one open spot for Hembree to claim, though a trade or an injury could open up an additional spot.

Hembree will likely compete with waiver claim Sandy Rosario and minor league free agents Scott Proctor, Jon Meloan and Chad Gaudin for a spot in the bullpen.

The Giants have one spot open for a reserve outfielder, and Peguero and Kieschnick appear to be the top candidates for that role. After two disappointing seasons at Double-A, Kieschnick broke out in Triple-A last season where he hit .306/.376/.604 before crashing into a wall and suffering a shoulder injury. The injury and his struggles in winter ball could push back his timetable for another season.

Peguero has the inside track on a roster spot after flashing a strong throwing arm and good athleticism in his brief cup of coffee with the Giants last season. Like Kieschnick, he struggled in winter ball this offseason, so he’ll have to have a solid spring training to make the team.

Outfielder Juan Perez also has an outside shot to make the squad after he hit .302 at Double-A Richmond last season, earning a spot on the 40-man roster. Minor league free agents Cole Gillespie and Javier Herrera could compete with Perez, Peguero and Kieschnick during spring training for the final spot on the Giants’ bench.

The prospects with the most potential—Crick, Blackburn, Stratton, Brown and Panik—need more seasoning in the minor leagues. All five could get a look during spring training, but none of them has much of a chance to make the team.

Instead, prospects with less upside but more upper level minor league experience like Hembree, Kickham, Heston, Kieschnick, Peguero and Perez, should have the best odds of making the roster out of spring training.

The Giants aren’t likely to start the season with any of their elite prospects on the major league roster. However, of the current homegrown core of stars on the big league roster, only Brandon Belt made his debut by winning a job in spring training, and he was quickly demoted back to the minor leagues after struggling out of the gate.

Thus, it will be more interesting to see which Giants prospects make their debut later in 2013.

If Brown, Panik or one of the young pitching prospects flourishes in the minor leagues this season, it isn’t hard to imagine them making an impact later in the season as Crawford, Posey, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Sergio Romo and Pablo Sandoval did in recent seasons.

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After keeping the core of their championship team together by re-signing free agents Jeremy Affeldt, Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro, the latest rumors pertaining to the San Francisco Giants mostly surround the periphery of the roster.

For example, the Giants were rumored to be interested in backup outfielder Endy Chavez before he agreed to a minor league deal elsewhere on Monday.

Before missing out on Chavez, the Giants were busy building the depth of their roster by signing free agent outfielder Andres Torres to a major league deal, claiming reliever Sandy Rosario off of waivers and agreeing to minor league contracts with catcher Guillermo Quiroz, infielder Wilson Valdez and reliever Chad Gaudin.

With the big transactions of the winter already taken care of, the Giants will spend the rest of the offseason continuing to build up the bench and bullpen.

The biggest questions that remain are whether the club will re-sign Brian Wilson, trade Tim Lincecum and extend the contracts of Buster Posey and Sergio Romo.

The latest news on Wilson courtesy of the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman is that the team was not close to a deal with the bearded closer. Wilson was reportedly unhappy with the team’s decision to not tender him a contract last month.

Had the Giants tendered Wilson, he likely would have made close to the $8.5 million salary that he earned last season when he made just two appearances before going under the knife for a second Tommy John procedure on his elbow.

Given Wilson’s unhappiness with the club’s decision to non-tender him, I would sell on the rumors of him coming back to the Giants. The Giants want him back but are near their budget ceiling at this point in the winter. Most free agents go to the highest bidder, and it’s hard to envision the Giants outbidding other suitors for Wilson—particularly given his public frustration with the organization. 

Nick Carardo of the Boston Globe wrote that Lincecum was available in a trade earlier this winter, but general manager Brian Sabean put that speculation to rest almost as soon as it began.

While it’s possible that Sabean would still entertain trade offers for Lincecum even after telling the media he had no intention of making a deal, he likely would have been more active in finding a replacement this winter.

With free agents Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, Ryan Dempster, Brandon McCarthy and Edwin Jackson off the market, the Giants would have a hard time replacing Lincecum if they dealt him, unless they got a big-league ready arm in return for him. 

With Sabean shooting down rumors of a Lincecum deal earlier this winter and the Giants not active in the free agent pitching market, I would bet the farm on him being in the Giants rotation in 2013. Even with Lincecum in the fold, the Giants remain short on starting pitching depth outside of the five returning starters in the big league rotation. 

This late in the winter, not many teams have the money available to acquire a pitcher making $22 million—especially one coming off the worst season of his career. The better question isn’t whether or not Lincecum will be in the Giants rotation, but which version of Lincecum will show up in 2013?

John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the Giants were open to the idea of a contract extension for Buster Posey. Posey is in a similar situation to the one Lincecum was in after the 2009 season.

Lincecum was eligible for salary arbitration for the first time, and normally the advantage is with the team in arbitration hearings. However, because Lincecum had two Cy Young awards on his resume, he had the leverage. The Giants ultimately agreed to buy out two years of arbitration with a $23 million contract extension.

Posey has a batting title, MVP award, Rookie of the Year award and two World Series titles on his resume. The Giants will control him through arbitration for the next four years regardless, but a contract extension to provide cost certainty and buy out some free agent years would make a lot of sense.

I would buy the rumors of a contract extension for Posey, and I would also expect the team to extend Sergio Romo—who is also eligible for salary arbitration. The three-year contract extension the Giants recently gave to Santiago Casilla would be a reasonable deal for Romo.

The Giants are done making big splashes this winter, which means Lincecum will almost certainly be in the rotation when spring training rolls around. The Giants might want Wilson back in the bullpen, but my guess is that he will stick to his word and move on.

The smart money is on multi-year contract extensions for Posey and Romo, the two most critical members of the team eligible for salary arbitration.

The theme of the offseason has been stability, and I would bet on that continuing with contract extensions for two integral members of the 2010 and 2012 championship teams.

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Earlier this offseason, when the San Francisco Giants re-signed reliever Jeremy Affeldt to a three-year, $18 million contract, I argued that the club overpaid to retain the 33-year-old lefty. The Giants have since given a three-year, $15 million extension to 32-year-old reliever Santiago Casilla.

In retrospect, neither player seems to have been given an egregiously large contract given the way the market has shaken out. But I generally don’t like paying market prices for veteran relievers because relief pitchers tend to be more fungible than starting pitchers and everyday position players—and the latter two categories are harder to find.

For example, the Giants turned up Casilla on a minor league deal prior to 2010 after he had washed out by putting up a 5.96 ERA with the A’s the season before. In three years with the Giants, he’s put up a combined 2.22 ERA.

It’s also worth noting that neither Casilla nor Affeldt projects to be the Giants closer in 2013. Manager Bruce Bochy may use them both to close occasionally depending on matchups, but it’s more likely that Sergio Romo will retain the job.

Romo earned that role with his outstanding performance as the closer during the final month of the regular season and throughout the postseason. He saved all four of his playoff chances with a 0.84 ERA, and he nailed down all of his regular-season save opportunities in September and October.

Thus, it doesn’t make sense to compare Casilla and Affeldt‘s contracts to those of Brandon League and Jonathon Broxton, as both were signed to be closers for their respective teams.

Instead, it’s more instructive to look at the contracts handed out to setup men this winter using contractual data from Baseball Prospectus’ Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

The Cubs signed Shawn Camp to a one-year deal at $1.35 million and Kyuji Fujikawa to a two-year deal worth $9.5 million, with a club option for a third year. Tampa Bay re-signed setup man Joel Peralta for two years and $6 million with club options from 2015 through 2017.

The Pirates re-signed Jason Grilli to a two-year, $6.75 million deal to be their setup man, but after they dealt closer Joel Hanrahan, Grilli will likely become the team’s closer.

The Brewers signed lefty relievers Tom Gorzelanny (two years, $5.7 million) and Mike Gonzalez (one year, $2.25 million). The Los Angeles Angels signed lefty reliever Sean Burnett to a two-year, $8 million deal with a third-year club option.

The largest contract given to a setup man was the Phillies‘ two-year, $12 million agreement with Mike Adams.

Thus, if the Giants were truly paying market prices for Affeldt and Casilla, they would have given them both two-year deals with club options for a third season at an average annual value of between $3 and $6 million. The Giants didn’t overpay in terms of monetary value, but they probably guaranteed one year too many.

Given that the team is in win-now mode, it doesn’t really matter if they have to slightly overpay to retain the guys they want. Casilla and Affeldt have both been very good in terms of run prevention with the Giants, so keeping both players in the fold makes sense.

The final thing to consider here is opportunity cost. Casilla was going to be in the fold for 2013 regardless because the Giants controlled him for one more season before he could become a free agent. However, the $8 million the team agreed to pay Affeldt next season could have gone towards upgrading left field, which appears to be the weakest spot on the roster.

Nick Swisher reportedly wanted to sign with the Giants, and he will make $11 million to play for the Indians next season after signing a four-year, $52 million deal with them. Had the Giants let Affeldt walk, they could have used the money allocated to him, plus the $2 million given to reserve outfielder Andres Torres, to make a run at Swisher. Upgrading from the Gregor Blanco-Torres platoon to Swisher in left field would have more than made up for the loss of Affeldt in the bullpen.

The Giants ultimately made retaining Affeldt more of a priority than upgrading left field. They won the World Series with Blanco starting in left for the final two months of the regular season and all of the postseason, so they probably figure that they can win it all with him out there again next season. He’s also younger, much cheaper and a better defender and baserunner than Swisher.

The Giants didn’t drastically overpay in re-signing Affeldt and extending Casilla. However, the resources used to retain Affeldt might have been better spent on a left-field upgrade.

Alas, I have the benefit of hindsight. But the Giants have to make these decisions in real time.

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As a fan of the two Bay Area baseball teams, most of my observed impressions of players around Major League Baseball are based on their performances against the San Francisco Giants and Oakland A’s.

Thus, I am biased toward new Pittsburgh Pirates starter, Francisco Liriano, who reportedly signed a two-year, $14 million contract on Friday.

On July 13th of last season, I saw him throw his best game of the season against the A’s. He went eight innings, struck out 15, walked one and allowed only four hits. Unfortunately, one of those hits was a grand slam off the bat of Jonny Gomes to give the A’s a lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

Despite the mistake to Gomes, Liriano’s outing was one of the most dominant performances that I witnessed all season. His fastball was in the 92-95 mph range, and he featured a nasty slider and changeup—two swing and miss secondary pitches.

Yet that July night was the high-water mark in what was otherwise another maddening season for the talented lefty. Despite having excellent fastball velocity and a wipe-out slider, Liriano was demoted to the bullpen before returning to the rotation in time for a midseason trade. He finished the season with a 5.34 ERA in 156.2 innings.

He was 14th in the league in strikeout percentage amongst starters who threw at least 140 innings, proving that he still has some of the best stuff in the game. However, his control continued to hold him back as he finished with the third-highest walk ratio.

Liriano also had a hard time getting right-handed hitters out last season. He held lefties to a .221/.310/.293 batting line, but righties slashed .251/.354/.430 off him.

Part of the reason for his platoon split is that the slider is his best offering, and that pitch is much more effective against lefties. His changeup—which he uses to attack righties—was outstanding in the start I watched against the A’s, but it was otherwise an inconsistent pitch for him last season.

Liriano also had issues pitching out of the stretch. Opponents had an OPS of .796 with men on base compared to just .699 with the bases empty.

Thus, while the Pirates are getting a pitcher with elite stuff, they’re also getting a guy who has a hard time throwing strikes, getting righties outs and pitching from the stretch.

Last winter Pittsburgh took a similar gamble on the talented but enigmatic A.J. Burnett when they acquired him from the New York Yankees. Burnett rewarded the Pirates by trimming nearly two runs off his ERA, predominantly by reducing his walk and home run rates. 

It isn’t hard to imagine Liriano having the same success in his change from the American League to the National League with the Pirates. Just two seasons ago, he ranked as one of the best pitchers in the AL when he put up a 3.62 ERA and four Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

He’s battled injuries and inconsistency since that excellent season, but he’s young enough to get the magic back. As with Burnett, Liriano’s stuff is still plenty good enough to miss bats.

The trick will be getting him to attack the strike zone the way he did two years ago and the way the Pirates got Burnett to last season. As with Burnett, this is a short-term bet on a player with excellent stuff and serious upside, but also with significant flaws.

This is a “boom or bust” deal for the Pirates, but the potential reward far exceeds the financial cost of the contract. When you haven’t made the postseason in two decades, these are the types of gambles that you have to take.

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After trading shortstop Cliff Pennington to Arizona for outfielder Chris Young and losing Pennington’s eventual successor Stephen Drew in free agency to the Boston Red Sox, the Oakland A’s once again took to the international market to fill a void.

One year after striking gold with the signing of Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year contract, A’s general manger Billy Beane filled the hole at shortstop with the signing of Japanese infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima to a two-year, $6.5 million contract according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Slusser also reported that the A’s had come close to a trade for shortstop Yunel Escobar earlier this winter before backing out amidst concerns over Escobar‘s character.

In Nakajima, the A’s get a player who will turn 31 next season and has nowhere near the potential upside that the tooled-up Cespedes offered last winter. However, Nakajima comes with a measure of certainty because of his experience playing professionally in Japan, a more accessible venue for scouts and statistical analysts compared to the Cuban League.

Nakajima slashed .311/.382/.451 for the Seibu Lions last year, and hit .310/.381/.474 in his six-year professional career in the Nippon Professional Baseball league. 

For statistical comparison, Norichika Aoki came over to the Milwaukee Brewers last season after hitting .329/.408/.467 in Japan, numbers comparable to Nakajima‘s. Aoki had a very solid rookie year stateside, hitting .288/.355/.433.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Twins signed Tsuyoshi Nishioka prior to 2011 after he had hit .297/.370/.424 in Japan. Nishioka hit only .215 in 254 plate appearances over parts of two seasons with the Twins before earning his release.

Just like with minor league numbers for prospects coming to the show, statistics from Japan are not all that predictive. Thus, in order to get a better idea of what Nakajima will do with the A’s, it’s better to look at the scouting reports on him.

An executive of one major league club told Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports that Nakajima‘s range at shortstop is going to be just average “at best,” and there are also questions about his arm strength for the position. Buster Olney of ESPN backed up that view via Twitter.

Some teams have wondered if Nakajima can play shortstop in the majors. But OAK needs a shortstop and Nakajima represents best FA solution.

While there are serious questions surrounding his glove, reports on his bat are more optimistic. Earlier this winter, A’s manager Bob Melvin told Slusser that Nakajima “looks like a hitter.” Rosenthal reported that Ichiro Suzuki, the most successful hitter to transition from Japan to Major League Baseball, predicted that Nakajima would be able to hit in the majors.

Ichiro isn’t a scout, but Patrick Newman of FanGraphs scouted Nakajima and wrote,

Nakajima is a good contact hitter who uses the whole field. I see him as a line drive/gap hitter…He’s also gotten better at drawing walks over the last few years…Like many Japanese NPB hitters, he has a complex swing, with a long stride and a lot of leg movement. I think he will shorten up his stride and cut down on his lower body movement in MLB, which will likely cost him some power.

In today’s inflated market, the $3.25 million average annual value on Nakajima‘s contract will be a huge bargain for the A’s if he can develop into an average regular at shortstop.

If his bat is good enough for the position but his glove falters, the A’s can slide him over to second base and move Scott Sizemore back to third base. In the worst case scenario, Nakajima will become an expensive utility player for the A’s.

The A’s other options at shortstop were to keep the light-hitting Pennington, pay a lot of money for Drew—who is coming off of another down year while struggling to overcome a broken ankle suffered in 2011—or to trade for the mercurial Escobar, who is also coming off of a subpar offensive season.

Given their success in turning up a gem on the international market in Cespedes last winter, the A’s were wise to gamble on the cheaper alternative in Nakajima, who should be able to outhit Pennington’s tepid .215/.278/.311 batting line from last season. 

The Brewers turned up a solid contributor from Japan on the cheap in Aoki last offseason, and the low-budget A’s are hoping to do the same thing with Nakajima. The financial risk is tolerable, and the potential reward is high.

Beane has a track record of finding creative ways to add talent at below-market prices, and Nakajima could be the next feather under the GM’s cap.

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Marc Hulet did a nice job of ranking the San Francisco Giants farm system over at FanGraphs on Tuesday. What stood out about his rankings is easy to see: of the Giants’ top seven prospects, six of them are pitchers.

The Giants have rebuilt their farm system around pitching over the last two drafts. They selected top prospect Kyle Crick in the supplemental first round of the 2011 draft, No. 2 prospect Clayton Blackburn in the 16th round of the same draft and No. 3 prospect Chris Stratton with their first-round pick last season.

Crick, Blackburn and Stratton are reinforcements for a farm system that lost top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler—the team’s first-round pick in 2009—in the trade for Carlos Beltran midway through the 2011 season.

The Giants farm system also has produced the core of their outstanding big league rotation in first-round picks Matt Cain (2002), Tim Lincecum (2006) and Madison Bumgarner (2007). Ryan Vogelsong returned to the organization prior to 2011 as a minor league free agent after being originally drafted by the team back in 1998, and he has since emerged as a front-line starter for the Giants.

The rest of the top 15 is heavy on position players, but I think Hulet made two significant omissions on the pitching side of the prospect list. He ranked Crick, Blackburn and Stratton as the Giants’ top three pitching prospects, followed by Heath Hembree, Mike Kickham, Josh Osich, Edwin Escobar and Adalberto Meija.

However, he left off 2012 second-round pick Martin Agosta and the Giants minor league pitcher of the year last season, Chris Heston. 

Agosta struck out 19 of the 50 batters that he faced in rookie ball last season, and Heston put up a 2.24 ERA in 148.2 innings at Double-A last year. Heston has had good results throughout his minor league career, but he lacks the fastball velocity necessary to be considered a future top-of-the-rotation starter. He projects as more of a back-end arm who will throw strikes and get plenty of ground balls.

I would have left shortstop Ehire Adrianza and outfielder Francisco Peguero off of the list of top prospects in favor of Agosta and Heston. Adrianza is an excellent defender, but he’ll never hit enough to play consistently in the big leagues. Peguero will turn 25 next season, which is a bit old for a prospect. He has tools, but his plate discipline is so bad that it’s hard to imagine him turning into more than a fifth outfielder.

The Giants are light on positional prospects, with center fielder Gary Brown—a first-round pick in 2010—and shortstop Joe Panik—a first round pick in 2011—topping a list that also includes Adrianza, Peguero, catcher Andrew Susac, right fielder Roger Kieschnick and third baseman Adam Duvall.

Brown appeared on the fast track to the big leagues after an excellent 2011 season at High-A San Jose, but he hit just .279/.347/.385 at Double-A last year. The Giants locked up incumbent center fielder Angel Pagan with a four-year deal this offseason, so Brown’s path to the big leagues with the Giants is blocked unless the team decides to slide Pagan to left field in the future.

Brown will need to rebuild his stock as a prospect either by repeating Double-A next season or in Triple-A if the Giants decide to promote him. Right now there are questions as to whether he projects as a fourth outfielder or as an everyday regular in center field.

Panik hit .297/.368/.402 with 58 walks against just 54 strikeouts at High-A San Jose last season, but then he hit only .205 in 20 games against stiffer competition in the Arizona Fall League. The jump to Double-A next season will help determine if his future in the big leagues is as an everyday starter or as a utility man.

This will be a key season for the Giants in deciding the future of their rotation. Cain and Bumgarner are locked up through 2017, but Lincecum, Vogelsong and Barry Zito can all become free agents after 2013 if the Giants do not pick up the club options on Vogelsong and Zito.

Heston and Kickham (3.05 ERA) threw well at Double-A this year, so they are much closer to the big leagues than Crick, Blackburn, Stratton, Escobar and Agosta, who all could be slotted together in the same rotation at San Jose next season.

It will be interesting to see how Kickham and Heston adjust to pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League next season and how quickly the Giants’ younger top pitching prospects climb the minor league ladder. Stratton could be a fast mover because of his collegiate experience pitching in the SEC at Mississippi State.

The Giants’ big-league rotation is full for now, but it won’t be for much longer as three of their starters approach free agency. The Giants have shifted their focus in the draft back to pitching, and reinforcements are on the way. 

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The obvious reason that the San Francisco Giants were a surprisingly good offensive team in 2012 despite playing in an extreme pitcher’s park was that they had several good hitters.

Buster Posey won the National League MVP award and the batting title. Melky Cabrera was on his way to winning the batting title until a suspension in mid-August led to his voluntarily exclusion from the race.

Marco Scutaro hit .362 after being acquired before the trading deadline from the Colorado Rockies. Hunter Pence struggled after he was acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies, but he still managed to drive in a bunch of runs for the Giants.

Pablo Sandoval was productive when he was healthy, particularly during the postseason when he won World Series MVP honors. Brandon Belt got on base 36 percent of the time. Angel Pagan led the league in triples while hitting .288.

Even the shortstop platoon of Brandon Crawford and Joaquin Arias was surprisingly productive.

Fourth outfielders Nate Schierholtz—who was traded for Pence at the deadline—and Gregor Blanco were also solid contributors, along with backup catcher Hector Sanchez.

Add it all up and the Giants were sixth in the National League in runs scored, third in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, fourth in stolen bases and seventh in OPS.

However, the real secret to the team’s offensive success was their ability to avoid the strikeout. Giants hitters struck out in only 17.7 percent of their plate appearances, which led the National League.

Of the 15 Giants hitters that received 100 plate appearances or more, only Crawford, Blanco, Belt, Pence and Sanchez struck out more than the league average of around 19 percent.

Scutaro (5.2-percent strikeout rate), Ryan Theriot (12.2), Cabrera (12.6), Arias (12.8), Sandoval (13.3), Pagan (14.7) and Posey (15.7) led the way in avoiding the whiff for the Giants.

Having good hitters is the most important factor in building a good offensive team, and the strikeout is not necessarily a bad thing as there is a high correlation between strikeouts and power hitting.

However, AT&T Park suppresses power more than any other stadium in the National League these days—making contact all the more important for the Giants. Posey and Sandoval not only avoid strikeouts, but they also hit for power, so the Giants are more than just a collection of high-contact, slappy hitters.

Looking ahead to next year, Sandoval and Posey will be back in the middle of the lineup along with Pence, who should be able to improve his strikeout rate to get it closer to his career rate of 18.5 percent.

Belt, who will likely continue to hit sixth behind Pence, cut his strikeout rate by five percent from his rookie season last year. He’ll either have to continue that trend or improve upon his meager home-run total from last season.

Crawford and Arias will be back at the bottom of the lineup to platoon at short, and the team is still negotiating with free agents Pagan and Scutaro to recreate the one-two punch that was so formidable at the top of the lineup last season. 

Giants’ general manager Brian Sabean acquired high-contact hitters in Cabrera, Pagan, Theriot, Scutaro and Arias last season.

If the past is any guide, free-agent outfielders Ichiro Suzuki and Shane Victorino could be potential targets for Sabean this winter: Ichiro has only struck out in 9.3 percent of his career plate appearances, and Victorino has struck out only 11.6 percent of the time during his career.

Down on the farm, the Giants top two hitting prospects are also high-contact hitters: Center fielder Gary Brown has struck out in only 13.5 percent of his minor league plate appearances, and shortstop Joe Panik has actually walked more than he’s struck out thus far in his career (86 walks, 79 strikeouts).

Neither player projects to be ready by opening day, but both could see action in the big leagues at some point next season.

There’s no right way to build a good offensive team. Having a bunch of power hitters that strike out a lot can certainly work. However, the Giants built a team of excellent contact hitters last season, which was the secret to overcoming the spaciousness of AT&T Park and their overall lack of home-run power.

Of course, having the best hitter in the National League in Buster Posey didn’t hurt, either.

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