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Fantasy Baseball 2015: Full 12-Team, 23-Round Mock Draft, Version 2.0

Forget your chores and homework or your nine-to-five responsibilities and honey-do list. With fantasy baseball drafts getting underway in the coming days (that is, if you haven’t had yours already), nothing is more important than preparing for your player picking.

(OK, maybe fundamental stuff, like food consumption and basic hygiene, but you get the idea.)

What’s the best way to prep? Well, hopefully, you’ve been following along with the Bleacher Report 300 position rankings, checking in on the B/R Big Board featuring the top 150 overall players and reading up on some key sleepers.

But by far the most enjoyable activity is partaking in a mock draft. You know, just your basic practice picking of players for the fake version of baseball that we all love so much.

The idea is to simulate a real fantasy baseball draft in order to get a better understanding of trends in roster construction and each player’s average draft position (ADP).

Besides, it’s plain fun.

Back in late February, fellow Bleacher Report fantasy writer Andrew Gould participated in a mock draft and wrote all about it. But player values change all the time, practically daily, due to performances, injuries and transactions. That’s why it’s time to recap another mock, carried out by yours truly.

What follows is a look at how everything went down.

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What Should Major League Baseball Do with Josh Hamilton?

At the center of the latest controversy for Major League Baseball is an aging, embattled, injury-prone, high-priced former MVP. And for once, it isn’t Alex Rodriguez.

While Rodriguez is busy getting in at-bats and fielding as many questions as grounders in New York Yankees camp after being suspended for all of 2014 as part of the league’s investigation into Biogenesis, Josh Hamilton is embroiled in his own scandal. But it’s more than that.

For Hamilton, a 33-year-old with a well-known history of abusing alcohol and drugs, it’s a battle for his life and well-being even more than it is a battle for his baseball career.

The Los Angeles Angels outfielder has had an extremely difficult, trying offseason, first undergoing surgery to repair a shoulder that had been bothering him since the end of last year, and then—here’s where that controversy comes in—dealing with the aftereffects of the surprising (but not altogether shocking) news that he had suffered a relapse.

Mike DiGiovanna and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times initially reported the incident, aspects of which were confirmed by others:

The latest details on Hamilton’s relapse comes from Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, who writes:

Multiple sources with knowledge of the situation told Yahoo Sports that Hamilton has told people his latest spiral began around Super Bowl weekend after a fight with his wife. Because he cannot carry cash or credit cards, Hamilton wrote himself a check to cash. He wound up at a strip club and used cocaine. Before his next test, Hamilton admitted to using drugs, which prompted the meeting with MLB in New York that the Los Angeles Times first reported, sending Hamilton’s case into the public view.

Those in and around baseball now await word on how the league will handle this and what sort of punishment Hamilton will face. A decision is expected before Opening Day and could come as soon as this week (i.e., mid-March), according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports.

But this decision is anything but simple, and the process has been anything but confidential, as it is supposed to be.

For one, there’s the fact that an arbitrator will need to evaluate the evidence and make a determination about whether Hamilton needs to enter a rehabilitation center or should be suspended for his reported relapse after the four-person treatment panel failed to come to a consensus or even a three-to-one majority.

The panel that was supposed to make the call—and which consists of a pair of representatives each from MLB and the MLB Players Association—deadlocked at two votes apiece, as the Los Angeles Times reports.

For another, if the findings call for a suspension, there’s the question of how long Hamilton should be held out and whether he should be treated as a first-time offender or a multiple offender.

As to the fact that all this has been made public, here is the statement the MLBPA released, via Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com:

It is regrettable that people who want to see Josh Hamilton hurt personally and professionally have started leaking information about the status of his treatment program and the confidential processes under our Joint Drug Agreement. These anonymous leaks are cowardly, undermine the integrity of our collectively bargained agreements and in some instances have been wholly inaccurate.

The Major League Baseball Players Association will use every right we have under the collective bargaining agreement to make sure Josh gets the help he needs, and the fair and confidential process to which he is entitled.

Clearly, this has become an unfortunate situation for everyone, including new commissioner Rob Manfred, who will have to weigh all matters and angles in handling this.

The thought is that Hamilton likely will be forced to miss at least 25 games, per Rosenthal and Morosi of Fox Sports. But if he’s treated as a multiple offender, then the punishment would be more severe, perhaps up to the entire 2015 season.

As a player with a long and disturbing history of addiction problems and drug use, Hamilton’s case is rare in baseball. After being selected No. 1 overall out of high school in 1999 by the Tampa Bay Rays, he was suspended from the sport altogether from February of 2004 to June of 2006 because of his problems.

That Hamilton was able to overcome everything and contribute anything at all on the major league level—let alone be one of the game’s biggest stars for a half-decade from 2008 to 2012—makes his career even more remarkable and this situation even more atypical.

An argument could be made that keeping Hamilton away from the game too long may be detrimental to his well-being, considering that baseball provides him with all kinds of day-to-day activities to keep him busy and in line, from hours of work in the gym or batting cages to busy travel itineraries to the games themselves.

Buster Olney pointed this out on his Baseball Tonight podcast, citing Darryl Strawberry, another longtime big league star who battled addiction but who found some solace in the clubhouse and on the field while playing with the New York Yankees in the mid to late 1990s.

Perhaps the best—or at least, the most mindful—option, then, would be to suspend Hamilton for, say, 25 games without pay. In a way, that almost would amount to a time-served sentence, since he already is expected to be out until May or June while recovering and rehabbing from surgery on his shoulder, per DiGiovanna.

All that said, the financial factor is one that makes this even stickier. Hamilton’s $25 million salary, as part of the five-year, $125 million deal he inked with the Angels in December of 2012, is among the highest in baseball, and especially steep for a player who—let’s not ignore the facts—wasn’t very healthy (89 games) or even all that good in 2014 (.263/.331/.414).

Were Hamilton to be suspended, he would lose his salary for as long as he’s forced to sit out, according to DiGiovanna and Shaikin. Given the circumstances, that wouldn’t be such a bad thing for the Angels, who could use the saved funds elsewhere. It’s not something that should be a major consideration here, but to pretend it isn’t one is naive.

“If [Hamilton is] in rehab,” Jean-Jacques Taylor of ESPNDallas.com writes, “he would be paid his full salary for 30 days and half his salary for the next 30 days. If he’s suspended, he would not be paid.”

Whenever he’s allowed to come back to baseball, Hamilton should be, as a result of his latest mistake, subject to even more frequent drug testing than he already has been. Not for punitive reasons—merely to make sure he’s not hurting himself or his family or friends.

“[Hamilton] served a 28-month suspension that ended in June 2006 for violating the league’s substance-abuse program,” Taylor reminds. “One of the conditions of Hamilton’s reinstatement in 2006 was that he undergo drug testing three times a week.”

Addiction, after all, is a disease, a battle that isn’t “won” or “lost” but fought daily, constantly even.

As Cliff Corcoran of Sports Illustrated writes:

This is a pivotal moment, not so much for the Angels’ season or Hamilton’s career, but for Hamilton’s future as a human being, a husband and a father. It is also a pivotal moment for MLB to lead by example by considering drug addiction as an illness that needs to be treated as such, and by viewing drug addicts not as criminals who need to be punished, but as victims of their own bad choices who need to be shown compassion and helped back to health.

Obviously, this is a controversy and a very sensitive one at that. There is no “right” way, no precedent to handle something that will impact Hamilton and those around him. But there very well could be a wrong way.

Ultimately, whatever Manfred and MLB decide to do with regards to punishing Hamilton for his most recent transgression, the most important thing is that Hamilton’s life and future—not his past—are the priorities.

 

Statistics are accurate through Monday, March 9 and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Cliff Lee Surgery Would Add Pressure on Phillies to Get Cole Hamels Deal Right

Cliff Lee‘s left elbow made it through just one spring training start—and all of two innings—last Thursday before he was shut down the following day with another bout of elbow discomfort in the same spot that plagued him for much of 2014.

The 13-year veteran went for an MRI on Sunday that revealed some inflammation, and while it’s too early to tell yet, Lee did acknowledge that surgery is at least a possibility. If that’s how this plays out, then Lee’s 2015 season will be over before it even begins—and there’s a chance his baseball career could be finished too.

“It would be 6-8 months out,” Lee said, via Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer. “So basically if I have the surgery this season will be done. Possibly my career I guess. I don’t know. We’ll have to see.”

And just like that, all the pressure is back on general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and the rest of the Philadelphia Phillies front office to do right by a rebuilding organization and make the most out of the club’s final big trade chip, Cole Hamels.

Were it only about his success, experience and postseason history, Lee would make for an enticing option for the Phillies to peddle to clubs eying a proven starter—provided, of course, they made the $37.5 million Lee is owed more palatable.

But combined with that amount of money, this latest run-in with elbow discomfort or soreness makes Lee absolutely immovable.

As Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News writes:

The Phillies (and Lee) obviously hoped to see the pitcher progress this spring without any issues. Had Lee stayed healthy, he could have been a nice trade chip for Amaro and Co. … and Lee himself could have potentially joined another team prior to the July trade deadline as he pursues an elusive World Series ring.

That is out the window at this point. If Lee weren’t considered damaged goods after making just 13 starts in 2014—none after July 31—due to elbow problems, well, he definitely is now.

Even if Lee were to be OK enough to pitch in the first half of the season, there’s just not going to be much interest in or market for a 36-year-old left-hander with a contract that is cumbersome (and then some) and, more importantly, an elbow that is unwilling to cooperate.

Which brings us back to Hamels, who now more than ever is Amaro’s last chance to turn the aging, injury-prone core of what was a top-notch team for several years into a batch of young, cost-controlled talent to help with a long-overdue rebuilding project that has just begun.

A 31-year-old southpaw, Hamels has been at the center of trade rumors dating back to last July and continuing all throughout this past offseason, as Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com notes.

While Amaro did manage to bring in some prospects, like Tom Windle, Zach Eflin and Ben Lively, by swapping longtime shortstop Jimmy Rollins and in-his-final-act outfielder Marlon Byrd, Hamels remains the lone piece that could net a return of real, franchise-altering value.

Nobody is knocking down Amaro’s door to ask about closer Jonathan Papelbon, and nobody is even picking up the phone to inquire about first baseman Ryan Howard.

The reports all along have been that Amaro has refused to budge on his terms involving Hamels, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. That means the GM won’t trade him unless the acquiring club sends an elite package of prospects and picks up most, if not all, of the $96 million Hamels is due through 2018.

“Cole Hamels is a known entity,” Amaro told Stark. “A known winner. A known World Series MVP. A known top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. If Cole Hamels continues to be Cole Hamels, which we fully expect him to be, why would [his trade value] decline?”

Funny, but a similar sentiment might have been uttered about Lee this time last year.

Further complicating matters is the fact that Hamels has a $20 million option for 2019 that he might want picked up if dealt, especially to one of the teams on his limited no-trade clause.

The good news here is that Hamels has yet to show any sort of decline or injury concern, meaning his value on the trade front remains relatively high. He is, after all, coming off a career-best 2.46 ERA last year.

That’s a big reason why Amaro needs to get it right when it comes to trading Hamels, which feels like an inevitability by now, whether it happens in the month between now and the start of the regular season or by the trade deadline at the end of July.

It’s also a big reason why Amaro should be willing to bend, if only a little bit, in his demands with regard to a return for Hamels. If nothing else, Lee—who had a 2.80 ERA while making at least 30 starts in each of his first three seasons since re-signing with Philadelphia—is an unmistakable example of how fast a pitcher’s career can be derailed.

Here’s Amaro’s bottom line: More than ever, he needs to get it right when trading Hamels, but in light of Lee’s latest ailment, the leverage is going in the wrong direction.

 

Statistics are accurate through Monday, March 9 and courtesy of MLB.comBaseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball 2015: Ranking the Top 85 Starting Pitchers

With the top 150 fantasy baseball players all ordered and ranked on the initial 2015 Big Boardthe individual position rankings are well underway. All told, there will be (count ’em) 300 players ranked.

After providing some sequencing to the third basemen last time out, next up are the starting pitchers, an impossibly deep position.

As such, rather than waste any time here going through the tiers, it’s better to just get right down to it. Here, you can peruse the top 85 overall fantasy starters, as well as a few others you should watch, including potential impact rookies.

The only point to make before getting to that: Fantasy owners won’t have a problem piecing together a pitching staff filled with fantasy-friendly arms, even if they grab just one in the first 10 rounds or, frankly, wait that long to take their first. Yes, the position is that deep.

 

These rankings consider three factors:

First, everything is based on 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with standard 5×5 rotisserie scoring (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB for hitters; W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV for pitchers).

Second, lineup construction accounts for 22 active-roster positions consisting of: one each for catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner infield, middle infield and utility, along with five outfielders and nine pitchers.

And third, to be eligible at a particular position, players either must have played at least 20 games there in 2014 or be in line to start there in 2015.

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B/R Fantasy Baseball 300: Ranking the Top 25 Third Basemen

With the top 150 fantasy baseball players all ordered and ranked on the initial 2015 Big Board, it’s time to get into the individual position rankings. All told, there will be (count ’em) 300 players ranked.

After providing some sequencing to the outfielders last time out, next up is third base, a position where the talent is rather clumped together, making it difficult to parse these players.

The hot corner arguably is the one fantasy position that lacks a definitive best player. Is it Anthony Rendon or Adrian Beltre or Josh Donaldson? Those three are the top candidates, but a strong case could be made for any one of them. 

And even the tiers seem to bleed into each other without many easy-to-spot cutoffs. Is it so crazy to think that Chris Davis or Carlos Santana could outperform Kyle Seager or Evan Longoria? Not at all.

The point, then, when it comes time to draft a third baseman, is either 1) target one or two that you like in particular, regardless of the general consensus, or 2) aim for value by letting other owners snatch up the initial bunch, knowing there will still be a few very quality options from which to choose.

And while you could look to land two hot cornermen, one of which for your corner infield spot, chances are you’ll go with a first baseman for that, anyway.

Let’s run down the top 25 overall fantasy third basemen and a few others you should watch, including potential impact rookies.

 

These rankings consider three factors:

First, everything is based on 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with standard 5×5 rotisserie scoring (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB for hitters; W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV for pitchers).

Second, lineup construction accounts for 22 active roster positions consisting of: one each for catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner infield, middle infield and utility, along with five outfielders and nine pitchers.

And third, to be eligible at a particular position, players either must have played at least 20 games there in 2014 or be in line to start there in 2015.

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How Long Will It Take Cuban Phenom Yoan Moncada to Become MLB Star?

After months of speculation over where he would land and for how much, Cuban sensation Yoan Moncada has agreed to terms with the Boston Red Sox on a deal that will pay him a bonus worth something in the neighborhood of $30 million, according to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.

That’s a record amount for an international amateur player under the current signing rules and regulations, dwarfing the $8.27 million bonus the Arizona Diamondbacks gave right-hander Yoan Lopez earlier this offseason.

By just about all accounts, Moncada, a switch-hitting 19-year-old infielder with five-tool talent, should be worth it.

The question becomes: Now that he’s with the Red Sox, how long will it take Moncada, who won’t turn 20 until May 27, to make it to the majors and become MLB’s next great Cuban star? 

Here’s Ben Badler of Baseball America on Moncada‘s specs, comps and potential:

6-foot, 210-pound switch-hitting infielder who’s the best teenager to leave Cuba since Jorge Soler, a player with exciting tools and dominance of the Cuban junior leagues on par with what Yasiel Puig did at the same age. …

How good is Moncada? … If [he] were eligible for the 2015 draft, he would be in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick.

And prospect guru Jim Callis had this to say about Moncada, via MLB.com:

He’s really, really good. He’s not on the Top 100 Prospects list because he’s not signed yet. But were he to sign, I think he’d be in the top 10 somewhere—he’s that good.

You’re talking about a 19-year-old, switch-hitting middle infielder who hits for average, has power, above-average runner, good arm. I think the only question on him is he’s not really a shortstop, maybe more of a second baseman or third baseman.

So Moncada‘s talent is elite, his skill set broad.

As for his statistics, the numbers from Serie Nacional, Cuba’s top professional league, indicate he has yet to fully grow into his power (.380 slugging percentage in two seasons). But at his age, there’s plenty of time to develop that element.

What’s especially intriguing about Moncada‘s profile, again based on the numbers, is that he’s shown a knack for getting on base (.388 on-base percentage), which isn’t often a forte for young players still learning nuances of the game, particularly those who have played in Latin America. That alone is promising.

The fact Moncada is now part of a major league organization will only help get him on the path to reaching The Show.

For one, he’ll get to experience spring training over the next several weeks, which means he’ll be open to the highest level of instruction, training and coaching right away. That’s no small benefit as Moncada adjusts to a new everything—country, culture, language, teammates, media, etc.

Given that the Red Sox have invested so much in Moncada—in the end, the bonus ultimately will cost them twice the final price as a dollar-for-dollar overage tax is applied, and they won’t be able to sign any international amateur for more than $300,000 the next two years—the club is going to do everything in its power to get as much out of Moncada as fast as possible.

As far as a best-case scenario in terms of how quickly Moncada might make it to the majors and become a star? Look no further than his fellow countryman Puig, who signed for $42 million (prior to the current rules) in June 2012.

After a strong 23-game cameo in the low minors that year, then an incredible showing in spring training the following March and a couple of big months at Double-A to open the 2013 season, Puig became a phenomenon with the Los Angeles Dodgers by June 2013—just a year later.

Given that Moncada is almost two full years younger than Puig was at the time of each player’s signing, a more realistic timeline for Moncada could be along the lines of Soler‘s. 

At the time he landed his $30 million deal with the Chicago Cubs in June 2012—the same month as PuigSoler was 20 years and four months old. That’s about half a year older than Moncada is now.

Soler‘s development was slowed along the way, mostly by injuries that limited him to just 75 minor league games in 2013, his first full season, and 62 in 2014. But he did make it to the majors by the end of August last year and looked ready right away, hitting .292/.330/.573 with 14 extra-base hits, including five homers, in 24 games.

Of course, there are factors that could slow Moncada‘s ascent to MLB stardom, too. Some of them are under his control.

As a switch-hitter, for instance, Moncada will have to prove he can perform capably from both sides of the plate and against pitchers of various kinds of velocities, repertoires and arm angles. And as Callis notes, “The caveat is that Moncada hasn’t faced much pro-caliber pitching.”

Keith Law of ESPN goes into detail on Moncada‘s two separate swings:

His left-handed swing is ahead of his right-handed swing for now. He’s very short to the ball with plus bat speed, with excellent body control and strong hands; his right-handed swing is a bit more rigid and he’s not likely to have the same plate coverage, struggling to adjust to off-speed stuff when facing live pitching this winter.

There also is the matter of where Moncada will play in the field. Although he has some experience at shortstop, he played second base primarily in the Serie Nacional but could profile better at third base given his build (6’2″, 205 lbs) and projectable power. He won’t be learning an entirely new position, but there are nuances and specifics that apply to each spot on the diamond that he’ll have to turn into second nature.

There are aspects beyond Moncada‘s grasp, too. Like the fact Boston already has a fully stocked infield, featuring fellow young franchise building block Xander Bogaerts at short, franchise face Dustin Pedroia signed through 2021 at second base and new $95 million man Pablo Sandoval at third.

This means the Red Sox have no reason to rush Moncada to the majors, and it also won’t make it any easier for him to get there without earning it.

Given the circumstances, perhaps the easiest path to playing time comes with the expiration of first baseman Mike Napoli’s contract after the 2015 campaign, which would allow Boston to shift Sandoval to the other corner, thus opening up the hot corner for Moncada.

If that happens, and Moncada performs to expectations in the minors this year—likely starting at a low level (i.e. A-ball), according to Ian Browne of MLB.com, with a chance to reach Double-A—and follows the almost unbelievable Puig path, he could look like MLB’s next Cuban stud by the end of the first half of the 2016 season.

If Moncada‘s timeline is more similar to Soler‘s, though, then look for Moncada to arrive either late in the second half of 2016 or early in the first half of 2017 with the aim of being a starter right away—and a potential star in 2018.

Ultimately, Moncada is a different player from Puig and Soler—or any other fellow Cuban who has gone on to become an MLB star, like Yoenis Cespedes and Jose Abreu—so how fast Moncada makes it to the majors, and whether he becomes a star, is going to depend on him more than anything else.

For his part, Moncada had this to say, via Sanchez, in early February prior to signing: “My goal is to sign with a team soon, start training with them, and make it to the major leagues as fast as I can.”

The clock is ticking.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. 

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


B/R Fantasy Baseball 300: Position-by-Position Ranking Index of Top 300 Players

Spring training is underway, which means two things above all: One, the weather is bound to warm up (eventually); and two, fantasy baseball owners are prepping for their drafts and warming to the idea of another long, challenging, daunting—and yet oh-so-fun—season of player selection, trade talk and lineup decisions.

While we unfortunately can’t do anything about the weather, we can make your fantasy baseball planning and picking a heck of a lot easier.

That’s where the Bleacher Report Fantasy Baseball 300 comes in. This draft season, we’re ranking that many players overall to provide some clarity to a process that often can be rather foggy. To help keep things simple, each of the individual position rankings is listed below.

Consider the hyperlinked tables below your one-stop shopping for fantasy baseball goodness.

See? Things are warming up already.

 

Hitter Rankings

Catchers

Top 20

(as of Feb. 16)

Third Basemen

Top 25

(coming Feb. 27)

First Basemen

Top 25

(as of Feb. 18)

Shortstops

Top 25

(as of Feb. 23)

Second Basemen

Top 25

(as of Feb. 20)

Outfielders

Top 50

(coming Feb. 25)

 

Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitchers Relief Pitchers

Top 85

(coming March 2)

Top 45

(coming March 4)

 

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter:@JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball 2015: Ranking the Top 25 Second Basemen

With the top 150 fantasy baseball players all ordered and ranked on the initial 2015 Big Board, it’s time to get into the individual position rankings. All told, there will be (count ’em) 300 players ranked.

After providing some sequencing to the first basemen last time out, next up is second base, which has one longtime star (Robinson Cano) and one new fantasy darling (Jose Altuve) at the top.

After that duo, the next tier is headed by the still-solid Ian Kinsler, who is followed by a batch of wild-card types, like Jason Kipnis, Brian Dozier, Dustin Pedroia and Dee Gordon, each of whom has been both good and bad in recent years.

There are more starter-worthy second basemen after that group, but only a few, and Kolten Wong is the only one of the bunch with upside.

In leagues that go deeper than 10 teams, one or two owners (or more) will come up short at this position, but later-round fliers could provide a solid bang for the buck. The trick is choosing the ones who will go bang.

Let’s run down the top 25 overall fantasy second basemen and a few others you should watch, including potential impact rookies.

 

These rankings consider three factors:

First, everything is based on 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with standard 5×5 rotisserie scoring (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB for hitters; W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV for pitchers).

Second, lineup construction accounts for 22 active roster positions consisting of: one each for catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner infield, middle infield and utility, along with five outfielders and nine pitchers.

And, third, to be eligible at a particular position, players either must have played at least 20 games there in 2014 or be in line to start there in 2015.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.comBaseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Fantasy Baseball 2015: Ranking the Top 20 Catchers

With the top 150 fantasy baseball players all ordered and ranked on the initial 2015 Big Board, it’s time to get into the individual-position rankings. All told, there will be (count them) 300 players ranked.

First up? The catcher spot, which is very much in flux, with lots of turnover at the top. Given Yadier Molina’s dip in production and injury concerns as he ages, combined with the loss of “C” eligibility for two former early-round stalwarts in Joe Mauer (now 1B-only) and Carlos Santana (now eligible at 1B and 3B), the first tier now belongs to Buster Posey all by himself.

After that, the position is a mix of in-their-primers, such as the no-longer underrated Jonathan Lucroy, 2014 breakout backstops Devin Mesoraco and Yan Gomes and still-hanging-oners who provide steady if unspectacular numbers, such as Brian McCann.

There’s enough depth that owners in 10- or 12-team leagues won’t have trouble finding a solid starter, but in formats that go deeper (or use two catchers), it becomes a question of how much to invest in quality catching at the expense of missing out on more intriguing—and potentially more productive—players at other positions.

Let’s run down the top 20 overall fantasy catchers and a few others you should watch, including potential impact rookies.

 

These rankings consider three factors:

First, everything is based on 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with standard 5×5 rotisserie scoring (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB for hitters; W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV for pitchers).

Second, lineup construction accounts for 22 active roster positions consisting of: one each for catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner infield, middle infield and utility; along with five outfielders and nine pitchers.

And third, to be eligible at a particular position, players either must have played at least 20 games there in 2014 or be in line to start there in 2015.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.comBaseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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What Is the Success Rate Reality of Big-Name International Free Agents?

Forget the silly chatter of abolishing defensive shifts or the fact that James Shields is still a free agent. The biggest storyline in Major League Baseball right now is when and where Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada will sign.

The 19-year-old, switch-hitting infielder is considered to possess the kind of talent that would get him picked first overall were he eligible for Major League Baseball’s first-year player draft, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America.

Instead, because he’s an amateur international free agent, Moncada’s path to the majors will be quite a bit different, but one that has been taken by a number of highly regarded foreign-born players, especially in recent years.

That got us wondering: What kind of success can be expected from big-name, big-money international free agents (IFAs) from Cuba, Japan, Korea and Taiwan?

To find out, we did a little research. (OK, a lot of research.)

First, we need a working list of players, one that goes back far enough to give us a solid sample size but not so far that it starts to become irrelevant.

Going back 10 years feels about about right, especially since that takes us to 2005, which is just after the New York Yankees brought over Cuban right-hander Jose Contreras and Japanese slugger Hideki Matsui (both in 2002) and the New York Mets signed Japanese infielder Kaz Matsui (in 2003)—three of the biggest names in their respective countries whose arrivals helped spur the movement to ink well-known international stars.

Sure, there were others before them, like Hideo Nomo, Hideki Irabu and Ichiro Suzuki from Japan, as well as Rolando Arrojo, Livan and Orlando Hernandez from Cuba. But a decade is a good starting point given the talent that since has reached the United States from Cuba, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

Besides, prior to 2005, the flow of IFAs to MLB really was more of a trickle compared to what has become a surge in recent years.

Next? We need to define the “big name” aspect, which is tricky, because that needs to be based on a player’s reputation at the time of the signing. But money often works as a measure of perceived value and/or talent in baseball, so in the interest of quantifying this, let’s set $10 million as the minimum amount.

Sure, that will leave off a few nice names, like Kendrys Morales ($3 million), Alexei Ramirez ($4 million), Nori Aoki ($2.25 million) and Hisashi Iwakuma ($1.5 million). And recent signees Roberto Baldoquin ($8 million) and Yoan Lopez ($8.27 million) also won’t be included, primarily because they’re technically in a different class as “amateur” IFAs younger than 23 years old and without five years in a professional league. But, hey, we need to cut things off at some point, right?

Besides, $10 million is a hefty enough investment where teams will at least feel it a little if the player doesn’t live up to expectations.

Here, then, are all of the “big-name” IFAs who landed deals for $10 million-plus since 2005, arranged chronologically by signing year:

As you can see, the past 10 years has brought a steadily increasing flow of IFAs to MLB. On average, almost three IFAs have netted a deal for $10 million-plus a year, dating back to 2005.

But of those 26 above, 15 of them—nearly 60 percent—have come since the start of 2012. Suddenly, IFAs have become all the rage, almost no matter the price.

But how well have these well-known, well-paid foreigners performed in the U.S.?

To figure that out, we need to define “success,” which isn’t the easiest thing to do, especially when some of the above players have signed so recently that they have yet to even reach the big leagues. That’s why we’ll start with just that—major league service time. Because these players have to actually, you know, play.

This shows that 23 of 26 IFAs have at least reached the majors. And the only three who haven’t—Raisel Iglesias, Yasmany Tomas and Jung-ho Kang—can chalk that up to signing in just last June (Iglesias) or over this offseason (Tomas and Kang), meaning they haven’t exactly had the chance to break into the bigs. 

In other words, there’s a pretty good track record of highly regarded, highly paid IFAs making it to the majors, and typically once they do, they tend to stay for a bit. To wit, of the 23 who have debuted, they have accumulated 71 individual MLB seasons—or more than three per player.

That said, there are some exceptions to that rule, like Japanese pitchers Kei Igawa and Kenshin Kawakami, as well as Alexander Guerrero and Erisbel Arruebarrena, two big Cuban misses for the Los Angeles Dodgers after they hit it out of the park with Yasiel Puig and Hyun-jin Ryu the year prior.

But success means more than just sticking in The Show—it also requires a certain level of productivity.

For this, let’s run down each player’s career wins above replacement (WAR), according to both Baseball-Reference.com (rWAR) and FanGraphs (fWAR).

Now, pay attention to the highlighted players, because here’s where we quickly remind that a per-season WAR of 2.0 is roughly the production that corresponds to a “solid starter,” per FanGraphs. North of that is equivalent to even more success.

There are 12 players highlighted in the table—almost exactly half—each of whom proved or has proved to be something close to a 2.0-WAR/season player or better. In some cases, a lot better.

Using WAR might knock relievers a bit, but it’s pretty easy to argue that, say, Koji Uehara and Aroldis Chapman have been successful, valuable performers—and, most importantly, worth their contracts—even if they come in just below the 2.0-WAR/season mark.

To that same end, players like Leonys Martin and Jorge Soler, who have yet to reach this standard officially, shouldn’t be penalized simply because we haven’t quite had enough time to judge them more. Martin only became a full-time starting player in the majors in 2013, and Soler debuted just last August. Both look like strong candidates to cover going forward at this point.

Obviously, we can’t even begin to evaluate Raisel Iglesias, Rusney Castillo, Yasmany Tomas and Jung-ho Kang, but only the middle two have especially large contracts to make good on at $72.5 million and $68.5 million, respectively.

What all this means is that MLB clubs have gotten pretty darn good at scouting and evaluating pro talent overseas—not to mention, getting them to the U.S. and acclimated to a new country, culture and level of competition.

There’s also a strong correlation between paying a premium price for IFAs and then watching them produce as above-average (and occasionally elite) major leaguers. While there are expensive busts—Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kawakami and especially Igawa come to mind—essentially, 50 percent of all these players wind up being worth it in the end.

Some might consider that a coin flip—and an expensive one—but the salaries paid out to the large majority of these IFAs have been bargain rates relative to what major leaguers of equivalent talent levels are getting on the open market.

In fact, the only pact that is on par with the going rates for MLB free agent is Masahiro Tanaka’s $155 million with the Yankees. Even the deals for Castillo and Tomas, while steep, could turn out to be good buys, if not bargains.

And remember: Almost all of these high-end IFAs have been owned during the prime years of their careers, as opposed to MLB free agents, who usually reach free agency while already in their prime or even on the downside of it. The IFA market is more about upside, which is what teams want and are willing to pay for.

So it’s understandable why so many clubs are now going this route—and why the prices are picking up.

That’s good news, because even though Moncada is the biggest name out there on the IFA market at the moment, he’s not alone.

Fellow Cuban infielders Hector Olivera and Andy Ibanez also are free agents who could sign soon, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, who estimates that Moncada could require a total investment (signing bonus plus a dollar-for-dollar tax on the overage) of upward of $80 million.

And there’s a good chance that Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda could be posted next winter after it nearly happened this offseason. More names pop up on this front every year, too.

While international free agents, like Moncada and others, carry with them an inherent risk and many unknowns, it’s clear that MLB teams willing to pay up—in excess of $10 million—when a particular IFA is worth it have received a rather rewarding return, especially in recent years.

If anything, Moncada’s price just went up.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter:@JayCat11.

 

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