Each week of baseball’s regular season brings any number of fascinating news, noteworthy developments and/or curious behavior.
The week that is about to conclude, Week 3, has been no different—and there’s still part of the weekend left for something else to happen.
In the meantime, here are a handful of the biggest takeaways from the goings-on of the past seven days.
What good is a fantasy owner who lacks a sense of timing?
Fantasy baseball—just like the real thing—is a game of skill, luck and timing. That last trait in particular comes in handy in regard to getting value in the trading game.
Knowing which player(s) to trade away and which to deal for—and knowing just the right time to do so—can make all the difference.
After all, it doesn’t get much better than making a move to unload a hot flavor-of-the-week type who’s about to cool off in exchange for a slumping stud who’s ready to take off.
Now, speaking of timing, let’s get to some players to sell high and buy low.
In light of Nelson Cruz not only having led Major League Baseball with 40 home runs in 2014 but also having gotten off to a fast start in which he’s already mashed a league-leading eight more this season, could the Seattle Mariners slugger dare to go where so few have gone in recent years?
Could Cruz, who many expected would drop off in the power department now that he has to hit at pitcher friendly Safeco Field half the time, reach 50 homers?
Let’s start with this: With eight home runs in the first 15 games entering play Friday, the 34-year-old Cruz is on pace for—get this—86 long balls. Obviously, we know that’s not happening, but it at least provides some context (albeit of the rather ridiculous variety).
Keeping with the context idea, there’s also the simple fact that, as pitching has taken over baseball and power has declined across the game recently, hitting 50 home runs in a season has proved to be both extremely difficult and incredibly rare. How much so?
Well, in MLB history—that is, going back to 1901—there have been 43 50-homer campaigns. Or about one every two-and-a-half years.
Even more context? The big five-oh has been achieved by only 27 different players. So, yes, extremely difficult and incredibly rare.
If we limit the sample to the past decade (2005-14), however, then it’s happened seven times with no repeat performers. In other words, about once every one-and-a-half years.
That at least bodes slightly better for Cruz—or any other power hitter—that 2015 could bring another 50, particularly since Chris Davis was the last to get there with 53 in 2013.
Of course, that no hitter broke the barrier last year has exactly zero impact on improving Cruz’s chances in 2015. It’s not as if the “we’re due” argument applies here.
Remember, Cruz’s career high came in 2014—and even then, he was 10 homers away. And that was when he brought his boomstick to Camden Yards, a notorious launching pad, as a Baltimore Oriole.
Prior to that, Cruz spent eight seasons enjoying the warm weather and homer-happy park in Arlington, where the Texas Rangers play, and he reached 30 homers but once, with 33 in 2009.
This is the first season of Cruz’s decade-long career that he isn’t calling a hitter’s park home. That’s going to make things a lot tougher.
Plus, Safeco Field is not only one of the hardest parks to hit ’em out of, it’s particularly deadly for right-handed hitters, like Cruz.
According to StatCorner—a site that pulls three-year park factor splits for various outcomes, including home runs—Safeco sports a righty home run park factor of 87 (league average is 100). Translation? It’s about 13 percent harder for right-handed swingers to reach the seats at Safeco Field.
That jibes with the revelation that the most balls ever hit over Safeco’s walls by a right-hander since the park opened full time in 2000 is…21, by Richie Sexson in 2005.
What’s more, no other hitter—lefty or righty—has managed even 20 at Safeco in a single season. The most by a righty since ’05? Sexson’s 17 and Adrian Beltre’s 16, both in 2006.
Put a different way, if Cruz is going to have a shot at 50, he’s likely going to have to smash at least 30-32 on the road. Again, we remind you: He has hit more than 30 in a season, total, just twice.
Another pertinent factor here is how Cruz has fared in his career at Safeco, where he played often while with the AL West-rival Rangers.
Here are Cruz’s stats at Safeco for his career before this season: .234/.309/.440 with nine home runs in 204 plate appearances across 52 games.
And here are his numbers there so far in 2015: .289/.289/.474 with just two of his eight homers in 38 plate appearances over nine games.
Neither of those stat lines—nor any of the other aspects covered above—inspires much, if any, confidence that Cruz can approach 50 homers this year, much less last season’s 40.
Even with an impressive eight-homer head start.
Statistics are accurate through Thursday, April 23, and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
A new week, another batch of waiver-wire additions just the way you like ’em: hot and fresh out of the oven.
Some players mentioned last week—including Trevor Bauer, Miguel Castro, Alex Rodriguez, Shane Greene, Jimmy Nelson and Mike Moustakas—are already owned in many leagues, but they remain quality pickups if they’re available.
In the interest of keeping the names new, though, let’s avoid any repeats. Here are the top 10 waiver-wire pickups for Week 3.
Back in spring training, before the real fake games began, as it were, we provided two sets of sleepers. It’s time for a few more.
The first was a batch of 25 names to know, primarily for shallow leagues. The second set comprised 20 more players who qualified as even deeper sleepers.
Well, this is where we, inspired by Friday’s promotion of stud prospect Kris Bryant, provide you, dear fantasy owner, with yet another select group of all new players who could go from under the radar to household names—as in, someone even your parents might have heard of soon enough—ideally before the first half of the 2015 season is over.
That eliminates several top prospects, like Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Joey Gallo Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, who likely are a bit too far off for first-half impact.
It also removes all players who already have been written up as sleepers by yours truly, including, hot-starting rookie Joc Pederson of the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets top pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard or even Danny Salazar, the electric-yet-enigmatic right-hander who will be called up to start for the Cleveland Indians this weekend.
That said, you might want to start telling mom and dad about these five players who are positioned to become soon-to-be stars. You know, right after you grab and stash ’em on your fantasy roster.
Top prospect Kris Bryant, who made his major league debut Friday afternoon for the Chicago Cubs, is going to be a stud. He just didn’t look the part in his first shot at The Show. Big whoop.
Bryant, whose massive potential and prodigious power have captured the baseball world recently, more or less has not stopped hitting between the minors, Arizona Fall League and this past spring training since being selected second overall in the 2013 draft.
His career slash line in the minors prior to his call-up? Try .327/.426/.667. His 43 home runs between Double- and Triple-A last year led all of baseball, both the minors and the majors. Bryant essentially had become a god-like figure, a baseball-bashing freak of nature who could do no wrong in a batter’s box.
Then he stepped onto a big-boy diamond against a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher in James Shields and went hitless in four plate appearances—with three strikeouts—as the Cubs lost to the San Diego Padres, 5-4, at Wrigley Field.
By the end of the game, it felt like a large percentage of Cubs fans—many of whom were oh-so-ready to anoint Bryant their franchise savior before he even crossed the white lines for the first time and who gave him a standing ovation before his first at-bat—had turned into skeptics and critics and skeptical critics of a 23-year-old kid who merely was doing his best to meet their un-meetable expectations.
Folks, it’s one game. Not only that, it was Bryant’s first game. And baseball—despite Bryant’s best efforts to prove otherwise when he led all players with nine homers in spring—is hard.
What’s next? Should we start blaming Bryant for playing too well and forcing everyone to put all the outrageous expectations on him?
The hype machine went into overdrive hours before the game started, when it was announced the Cubs plugged Bryant right into the cleanup spot in their lineup in his very first game:
Still, after all the pandemonium and great expectations leading up to Bryant’s much-anticipated arrival, the fans became a little impatient—to put it nicely—after he struck out in each of his first three trips to the plate.
In fact, one fan even heckled with a very loud, very audible “You suck!” after a particularly meager swing by Bryant resulted in his third whiff, as Timothy Burke of Deadspin and Joe Giglio of WFAN 660 point out:
Three strikeouts in a single game? Bryant must be a bust, because that never happens. Like, ever. Right?
Heading into Friday’s games—not even two full weeks into the 2015 season—already there had been (count ’em) 82 instances of a player striking out at least three times in a game.
In baseball history, a player whiffed thrice or more in his debut 117 times.
So Bryant became No. 83 of 2015 and No. 118 all-time. Join the club. It happens. Would a three-homer game have been better? Duh. But maybe it’s not such a bad thing he got this out of the way.
In his final at-bat, Bryant at least made contact, but that, too, was disappointing, as he hit a sharp grounder to third for a fielder’s choice with the potential tying and winning runs on base in the seventh inning.
Hey, Bryant is far from the first big-time prospect whose first game in the majors didn’t go all that well. Just ask such baseball luminaries as Alex Rodriguez (0-for-3), Mike Trout (0-for-3), Chipper Jones (late-game defensive replacement) and Andruw Jones (1-for-5 with an RBI single and an error), as J.J. Cooper of Baseball America notes.
The good news is Bryant’s defense at the hot corner, which was likely part of the reason the Cubs sent him down to the minors at the end of camp, looked big league caliber.
He started a 5-4-3 double play in his first inning on the field and later even made this highlight-reel diving stab to rob Derek Norris of a base hit down the third-base line:
But it’s not Bryant’s glove work that fans wanted to watch in his debut. They were awaiting an offensive explosion that didn’t come. Disappointing? Sure, a little. Devastating? Uh, no.
After all, consider this:
And especially, this:
What did Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein and company think after Bryant’s 0-for-5 with five whiffs in his first game as a pro in a short-season league with Class-A Boise?
“We had to remind ourselves not to overreact to that, too,” Epstein said Friday, according to Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. “Sure enough, in a couple weeks he was dominating and moving up the ladder.”
Indeed, the world didn’t stop turning, the sun didn’t stop shining, and Bryant hasn’t stopped hitting since. At least, if you don’t base everything off his dramatic, ultra-hyped MLB debut.
Thing is, Bryant has arrived now, and he’s here to stay. While his first game didn’t go all that well, you know what? There’s a game tomorrow.
Statistics are accurate as of Friday, April 17, and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
What good is a fantasy owner who lacks a sense of timing?
Fantasy baseball—just like the real thing—is a game of skill, luck and timing. That last trait in particular comes in handy in regard to getting value in the trading game.
Knowing which player(s) to trade away and which to deal for—and knowing just the right time to do so—can make all the difference.
After all, it doesn’t get much better than making a move to unload a hot flavor-of-the-week type who’s about to cool off in exchange for a slumping stud who’s ready to take off.
Now, speaking of timing, let’s get to some players to sell high and buy low.
There’s an epidemic-like problem facing pitchers in Major League Baseball, and this one has nothing to do with arms, elbows or shoulders.
The scariest thing that can happen to a pitcher is getting hit by a comebacker in the head or face, which is what occurred Tuesday evening when a line drive rocketed off the bat of the Chicago White Sox‘s Melky Cabrera in the top of the first inning and struck Carlos Carrasco squarely in the left jaw area.
The worrisome scene played out with the Cleveland Indians right-hander laying on the ground for several minutes before he got up with the help of trainers—but mostly under his own power—and then was carted off the field.
MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian described the scene:
As serious, ubiquitous and career-threatening as Tommy John surgery can be for pitchers, a batted ball sent screaming back at the head is much worse.
That threatens not just one’s career but one’s life.
Carrasco, fresh off signing his four-year, $22 million extension last week, was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the final two months of 2014 and a dark-horse Cy Young candidate this year. Now his season could be in doubt, to say nothing of his well-being, had he been hit in just the wrong spot or by an even harder-struck ball.
With the necessary warning that this may be hard to watch, here’s replay footage of the incident in real time, via Josh Hill of FanSided:
And this version, from SideLeague, reveals replays from different angles to show just how hard, if not impossible, it is for a pitcher to react in time to defend himself from impact, because a batted ball comes out faster than it goes in:
Here’s what’s scary: The 28-year-old Carrasco is far from the only pitcher to suffer this fate even in just the past few years.
Others to have been hit in the head recently include Aroldis Chapman, Brandon McCarthy, Alex Cobb, J.A. Happ, Dan Jennings and Juan Nicasio, each episode seemingly scarier than the previous one.
Heck, just this spring training, none other than the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers, misjudged a soft liner back to him that wound up striking him in the face.
Because it wasn’t hit all that hard, Kershaw actually stayed in the game and merely needed some minor dental work afterward. But that doesn’t make that particular incident—or the recent rash of them—any less scary.
At the time, Kershaw had this to say, via Eric Stephen of True Blue LA, about those oversized (and let’s face it, somewhat awkward) protective caps that have been tested out by and approved for pitchers in the wake of all of these comebackers: “You look like Mario from Nintendo. I’m not a huge appearance guy, but I don’t know if I could take myself seriously.”
Maybe it’s time for pitchers to start worrying more about their safety and wearing something to protect themselves, regardless of the style or appearance, as long as it doesn’t impact their ability to do their job.
Otherwise, baseball needs to figure out a better way to protect pitchers, even if it means spending some money to solve the problem.
The head isn’t something to skimp on.
Of course, were Carrasco wearing that cumbersome current cap, he likely would not have been safe, given where and how the ball struck him.
The fact of the matter is there really isn’t an easy answer, if there is one at all, when it comes to protecting pitchers—who are much closer than 60 feet, six inches away upon release—from a hard hit ball right back at them.
Now that is scary.
Statistics are accurate through Tuesday, April 14, and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
The hype and excitement that surrounded Yoan Moncada and his decision to sign with the Boston Red Sox in February have turned mostly to anticipation and expectation as the Cuban phenom embarks upon his first season in America.
A 19-year-old infielder, Moncada landed a $31.5 million deal—a record for an international amateur free agent under the current system—and is considered the top teenager to leave Cuba since Chicago Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler in 2011. Moncada’s talent level would put him on par with a No. 1 overall draft pick if he were eligible to be drafted.
As Jim Callis of MLB.com put it:
If he were eligible for the 2015 First-Year Player Draft, Moncada would be a strong contender to go No. 1 overall to the D-backs. His overall 65 grade [on the 20-80 scouting scale] would place him among the top dozen prospects in baseball right now, and it’s arguably a bit conservative, because teams haven’t had the chance to evaluate him against much quality competition.
But for now, the baseball world will have to wait.
Although he does have two seasons in Cuba’s top professional league, the Serie Nacional, Moncada’s skills won’t be on display as the minor-league season opens this week. He has been assigned to extended spring training at the Red Sox’s Florida base in Fort Myers, according to Alex Speier of The Boston Globe:
Moncada is not among the players assigned to Single A Greenville to start the year, though the decision had little to do with the second baseman’s baseball skills. He’s viewed as being ready to compete in full-season ball to start his pro career, and indeed, he’ll likely join Greenville in the relatively near future—perhaps in a matter of weeks.
Greenville is Boston’s Low-A affiliate, which is rather conservative given that Moncada likely could handle High-A or possibly even Double-A at the outset based purely on his ability.
The main reason for the safe assignment? Moncada is extremely young—he’ll turn 20 at the end of May—and as talented as he is, he’s going to have quite an adjustment period. After all, he’s transitioning to a new organization, league and level of competition—not to mention a new language, country and culture.
The primary focus for Moncada and the Red Sox in 2015 will be on adjustment and acclimation.
Here’s more from Speier:
The absence of significant travel in extended spring training (where games entail no more than same-day round trips on buses) permits a greater opportunity for the player to get his bearings and to take advantage of elements such as English classes while engaging in other forms of cultural assimilation that will become more challenging once Moncada is with a full-season affiliate. Those factors took primacy in the decision to have the Cuban open the year in Fort Myers.
On the field, Moncada will have two elements to home in on. One will be his offense—his switch-hitting in particular. While reports indicate Moncada’s hit tool and power are above-average to plus—he slashed .277/.388/.380 in two Serie Nacional seasons at ages 17 and 18—he does have to make sure he maintains his swing from each side, which requires twice the effort.
“The guy has different bat speed from everyone else, period,” a scout told Ben Badler of Baseball America. “It’s a beautiful swing too from the left side, which is better than his right-handed swing.”
The other aspect is related to defense—specifically, his position on the diamond. Moncada clarified soon after signing that second base is his preferred spot, according to Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs, but he’ll likely play multiple spots so the Red Sox can see where he fits best.
Plus, Dustin Pedroia is locked in at the keystone through the 2021 season.
Perhaps above all else, Moncada will have to learn to live with the attention, hype and expectations that have followed him since the beginning of this past offseason and have grown since he signed his record deal—and will only amplify as he begins his career in the minors.
“My goal is to … make it to the major leagues as fast as I can,” Moncada told Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com prior to signing.
With Moncada’s athleticism, offensive profile, and versatile defensive skill set, he’s primed to make that happen. He just has to take care of a few things first.
Statistics are accurate through Thursday, April 9, and come from MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com, except where otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
No other sport’s first full slate of games can match Major League Baseball in the instant-overreaction department.
Fans and folks in and around the game love to alternatively extrapolate on performances (“After his two-steal effort, Jose Iglesias is now on pace for 324 steals”) as well as read far too much into what it all means after but one of 162 games.
That’s why we’re here now: to call attention to those immediate overreactions, and then—via a little Fact or Fiction—determine whether there’s any merit to the mayhem. After all, there are only 161 games to go now.