Kuzul

What good is talent to a fantasy owner who lacks timing?

Fantasy baseball—just like the real thing—is a game of skill, luck and timing. That last trait, in particular, comes in handy in regard to getting value in the trading game.

Knowing which player(s) to trade away and which to deal for—and knowing just the right time to do so—can make all the difference.

After all, it doesn’t get much better than making a move to unload a hot flavor-of-the-week type who’s about to cool off in exchange for a slumping stud who’s ready to take off.

Now, speaking of timing, let’s get to some players to sell high and buy low.

Statistics come from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, except where otherwise noted.

Begin Slideshow

Despite being all of 21 years old with just 35 career starts in the big leagues, Jose Fernandez has a pretty good case for being considered the best pitcher in Major League Baseball right now.

Fittingly, that claim can be backed up by some brand-new hardware, as the announcement came down Monday that the Miami Marlins right-hander had captured National League Pitcher of the Month honors for April, as Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports.

“What could you really say about that month that he had?” manager Mike Redmond said via Frisaro of Fernandez, who’s fresh off winning last year’s NL Rookie of the Year Award by going 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 9.7 K/9. “That was really unbelievable. Everybody at the beginning of the year was wondering how this guy was going to do in his second season. He pretty much answered that.”

Not a bad start to a career for a kid who made only 27 starts in the minor leagues—none above A-ball—before surprisingly securing a spot in the Marlins rotation at the outset of 2013, just his second pro season after going 14th overall in the 2011 draft.

Slapping a hard-to-earn label such as “best pitcher in MLB” on anyone, much less the player described in the preceding paragraph, might seem like just another instance of immediacy and instantaneity that’s oh-so-rampant these days. However, in Fernandez’s case, if the label isn’t already firmly stuck on his forehead, it’s at the very least being printed out by one of those fancy label-makers.

That’s especially true right now, barely a month into the 2014 season, with the pitcher widely considered to be the best on the planet entering the year—Clayton Kershaw, who is set to return Tuesday for the Los Angeles Dodgers—having been out of action due to injury for all but one start so far.

In case you’ve been missing out on the must-see TV that is a Jose Fernandez start, as fellow MLB Lead Writer Zachary D. Rymer wrote last week, here’s a quick peek at his statistics so far in 2014: 4-1, 1.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. All the numbers are better than they were in his incredible rookie campaign.

That speaks to Fernandez’s drive to improve—to be the best—which is evident in things such as, say, adopting a changeup to his already unfair repertoire that is centered around a mid- to high-90s heater and an absolutely devastating breaking ball that comes in the low- to mid-80s and acts and looks like both a curveball and slider.

And while his youth and inexperience might make one think otherwise, Fernandez, who made a harrowing escape from his native Cuba, pitches and plays with the guile and know-how of a veteran who will fight for every single strike, every single out, whether that comes in the batter’s box or on the basepaths.

Fernandez has done what he’s done this season, by the way, against some mighty tough teams, including the Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, Dodgers and Atlanta Braves (twice). So, no, he hasn’t exactly been spending his time dominating the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks.

Even in what wound up being Fernandez’s lone non-elite start of 2014—he proved he’s human after all by allowing six runs on eight hits over four frames against the Philadelphia Phillies on April 11—the right-hander showed his moxie by striking out six straight hitters at one point, including the first three with the bases loaded:

Two turns later, on April 22, Fernandez had the best game of his still-young career to date, firing eight shutout innings while giving up just three hits and getting 14 Braves to walk back to their dugout without making contact, 11 of whom struck out on Fernandez’s practically non-contactable breaking ball:

Fernandez followed that up by pitching only slightly worse while shutting out those very same Braves over eight more innings his next time out, on April 29, an outing he capped off by striking out the side in his final frame:

In Fernandez’s most recent start, Sunday against the Dodgers, he wasn’t at his sharpest, surrendering three runs (two earned) on five hits and four walks over seven innings. Even still, he whiffed 10 for his third double-digit strikeout outing on the year and seventh in his career:

Speaking of Fernandez’s career, since the start of 2014, his rookie season, here’s where he ranks in a number of the most pertinent and significant pitching categories among all starters:

As you can see by the highlighted rows, Fernandez is in or on the very short fringes of the top 10 in eight of those 11 statistics, and he’s actually been the hardest pitcher in baseball to get a hit off of, as his insane .179 batting average against proves.

All three of the other categories in which Fernandez comes up short by comparison—innings pitched, walk percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratio—can be attributed in part to his age.

Young pitchers, of course, tend to be brought along rather conservatively at the start of their careers, which is why Fernandez’s innings total doesn’t rank better. Young arms also tend not to hit their control-and-command peak until they’re further along in their careers, which could be why Fernandez’s walk and strikeout-to-walk rates aren’t quite as spiffy.

Remember, though, this is a 21-year-old we’re talking about.

This is also a 21-year-old who’s acutely aware of what and how he needs to improve. As he told Manny Navarro of The Miami Herald, upon being asked what he would be working on in May after his award-winning April: “Maybe walks. That’s my personal thing. I walked [eight] people the first month in [39 2/3 innings] and I’m not really happy about it.”

C’mon, you know that line made you smile. But it’s not just lip service from Fernandez, who is walking both fewer per nine innings (2.3 BB/9) and per batter (6.6 percent) so far in 2014 compared to last year’s numbers (3.0 BB/9 and 8.5 percent).

In addition to honing his control and command, Fernandez also is pitching deeper into his starts in year two. To that end, he’s reached the seventh inning in five of his eight outings this year (63 percent) versus just 13 times in his 28 turns in 2013 (46 percent).

In other words, Fernandez is, in fact, getting better in the primary areas where he actually has room for improvement.

If you’re not yet comfortable calling Fernandez the top pitcher around—maybe you want to see him do this for a little longer, a la Kershaw—perhaps you would consider compromising and labeling him the best right-hander in the game?

In that regard, Fernandez’s primary competition at the moment comes from Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer, the reigning AL Cy Young winner. Each has his own case and claim to being the best.

But while some may think it’s crazy to declare a 21-year-old kid with all of 35 big league starts on his resume the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, that’s what Fernandez is right now, especially since Kershaw is only just making it back to the mound after missing the past six weeks.

Or at least, that’s what Fernandez is working toward. Because what’s really amazing about Fernandez isn’t even necessarily how great he’s been at such a young age so far. It’s how much better he still could become.

Statistics come from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, except where otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

One imagines that, like most adolescents, Brian Cashman was told as a young man not to spend all his money in one place. This past offseason, the New York Yankees general manager applied that advice.

Despite being the biggest decision-maker in the Yankees organization (non-Steinbrenner division) and having exorbitant financial fortitude at his disposal to do with as he more or less sees fit, Cashman made one of his tougher calls in his decade-and-a-half as the club’s GM when he chose to take a stand and let longtime Yankees star—and free agent—Robinson Cano walk.

By not giving in to Cano, who the Yankees offered a hefty $170 million last winter before he eventually inked with the Seattle Mariners for $70 million more, Cashman knew he would have to execute another plan to get the Yankees back to October after they fell shy for just the second time in 19 seasons in 2013.

That plan, as it turned out, involved not spending all of the Yankees’ money in one place—on Cano—and instead spreading the wealth to multiple areas of need in a single offseason.

To be clear, Cashman still spent heaping piles of money—somewhere in the range of, oh, half a billion dollars—but rather than tie up too much of it in one cornerstone player, he went after and landed multiple great ones.

First, there was Brian McCann, the former Atlanta Braves catcher who scored an $85 million contract.

Soon thereafter came center fielder and leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury, the longtime Boston Red Sox player who pulled in $153 million.

Veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran, who’d just played in the World Series for the St. Louis Cardinals, came next at the price of $45 million.

And last but not least: Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka, a 25-year-old right-hander who was the pitching prize of the free-agent class at $155 million.

What was a dicey decision at the outset of the offseason has been working out rather well so far for Cashman. It’s also working out well for the Yankees, who are a season-high five games over .500 at 15-10 and in first place in the AL East entering play Tuesday—the day of Cano’s return to New York for the first time wearing a non-pinstriped uniform.

Cano and the Mariners, meanwhile, arrive in New York on a 3-9 stretch, including an eight-game losing streak, that has dropped their record to 10-14, placing them in fourth in the AL West. It’s too early to draw any definitive conclusions, but it’s not too soon to at least point out the two clubs’ divergent paths as the season’s first month comes to a close and Cano is temporarily back in the Bronx.

“Going back and playing for the first time against [the Yankees],” Cano told Adam Lewis of MLB.com, “it’s going to feel weird.”

For the Yankees, though, the start of 2014 has felt anything but weird, even with all of the new faces. As veteran left-hander CC Sabathia told Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York:

I think the chemistry on this team is really good as opposed to the past couple of years. We’re having fun playing and the starting pitching has been great. You don’t want to be that guy that messes it up. Just try to keep it going. …

… It just seems like the team is having more fun this year than last year. We added a lot of good guys, Mac [Brian McCann], Jacoby [Ellsbury], Carlos [Beltran]. It’s just a good group of guys this year.

Speaking of that good group, here’s how the new Yankees have done so far:

As for Cano, he’s sporting his usual high average of .301, but his other (i.e., power) numbers are down so far. In particular, his meager .387 slugging percentage and .086 isolated power are both deflated compared to his career marks (.502 SLG, .194 ISO), as the lefty hitter has all of five doubles and one home run. All told, Cano has been worth 0.3 WAR so far, per FanGraphs.

Obviously, it’s still very early in the season, and the sample sizes are rather minute, especially in the case of a metric like WAR. But at least that—the combined 1.9 WAR by Tanaka, Beltran, Ellsbury and McCann compared to Cano’s 0.3 WAR—puts a quantifiable number down to provide some idea that the Yankees’ spread-the-wealth approach in favor of ponying up for one player has been to the team’s benefit through the first month of 2014.

But for a moment, let’s put Cano and his slow start aside and focus on the Yankees, since those two entities now are mutually exclusive. The club’s biggest benefit is that both the lineup and rotation are now deeper, more diverse and less prone to extended periods where production lags and better able to withstand injury.

Sure, on an individual basis, none of Ellsbury, McCann or Beltran might be quite as good as Cano was last year or over his several years in New York, but the effects of a more solidified one through nine are felt in the form of there being fewer easy outs.

To wit, here’s a quick-peek comparison at where the Yankees ranked in the majors in three key offensive categories from last season—when they were forced to give entirely too much time to the likes of Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Jayson Nix—to this one:

As for the rotation, just imagine where the Yankees would be now if they hadn’t landed Tanaka, the top free-agent arm on the market over the winter.

With stalwarts Hiroki Kuroda (5.28 ERA) and Sabathia still capable but clearly on the decline (Sabathia’s 4.78 ERA through five turns matching last year’s end-of-season figure); Ivan Nova, who appeared to take a big step forward in 2013 (3.10 ERA), now out for the season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery; and Michael Pineda getting himself into sticky situations, New York’s five-man rotation would be in shambles if not for Tanaka, who has been as steady as he has been spectacular so far.

Granted, the Yankees are the rare franchise in Major League Baseball with the financial flexibility to let one $240 million franchise star go but still survive—even thrive—by bringing in multiple other players earning eight and nine figures.

Had the Yankees gone all out to keep Cano, though, spending upward of $250 million to beat the Mariners’ offer, that would have hindered their ability to bring aboard all of the others—Tanaka, Ellsbury, McCann, Beltran—and the roster depth and veteran presence that comes with them.

That spread-the-wealth path is the one Cashman ultimately chose to go down over the offseason, and the early returns are promising. Who knows: Had the other possibility played out, maybe the Yankees would be where the Mariners are now, under .500 and hoping that Cano finds his former form. Fast.

Otherwise, the Mariners are going to start wishing they hadn’t spent all of their money in one place—especially while the opposite strategy is paying off for Cashman and the Yankees.

Statistics come from Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, except where otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: Follow @JayCat11

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Not even a full month into the 2014 season, whatever magic the Boston Red Sox possessed in winning the 2013 World Series feels like it’s gone, perhaps bobbled away along with the five errors they made in an embarrassing 14-5 loss to the rival New York Yankees on Thursday night at Fenway Park that dropped them to last place in the AL East.

That, or maybe the good fortune was thrown away wildly by none other than first baseman/outfielder Mike Carp, who spent the ninth inning in a location he’s not at all used to—that is, on the mound—throwing inaccurate knuckleballs on his way to surrendering a tough-to-watch five walks while still somehow managing to get three outs and give up only one run.

Safe to say, after last year’s incredible turnaround season that culminated in a surprising, inspiring third championship in a decade, the Red Sox probably didn’t expect—barely three weeks in—to have to watch Carp make his big league pitching debut while also playing an all-around sloppy game in which they not only used five pitchers (if we’re counting Carp as a “pitcher) but also made a ghastly five errors on the way to falling to 10-13.

The last time Boston made five errors in one game? Try April 28…2001. Now the Red Sox are just hoping that April 24, 2014 was rock bottom.

“That’s as bad as we can play,” catcher David Ross said after, per Ian Browne of MLB.com. “That’s a terrible game to be a part of. That’s not big league baseball…We have to get better. Obviously that’s not big league baseball. That’s not Red Sox baseball.”

Thursday’s loss to the Yankees, meanwhile, already was Boston’s fifth in seven games this month against New York. After the game, Yankees captain Derek Jeter reiterated, via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, that despite his team’s success against the Red Sox so far, “They won the championship, they’re the defending champions, so they’re the team to beat.”

The Red Sox, though, didn’t look the part in dropping two of three to the Yankees at home.

Maybe it’s just a World Series hangover that sometimes affects reigning champs after a long regular season, followed by an extended, pressure-packed October and then an abbreviated, anything-but-relaxing offseason. Or maybe it’s that, in the wake of a year in which pretty much everything went just right, the Red Sox are enduring some sort of karmic stretch during which the opposite is happening at the outset of 2014.

Of course, there’s also the fact that while the core of the club—David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester—remains intact, this is also a different Red Sox roster.

One that only just got veteran outfielder Shane Victorino back from a hamstring injury Thursday.

One that has gotten little-to-no production from Daniel Nava, the recently demoted outfielder; or A.J. Pierzynski, who was brought in to replace Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate; or right-hander Clay Buchholz, whose 7.71 ERA is six times higher than it was last April (1.19) when he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.

One that is relying on youngsters Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. to handle up-the-middle positions that last year were covered by Stephen Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury, respectively. 

Speaking of Ellsbury, this series marked his return to Fenway. While the dynamic leadoff hitter is busy proving he’s worth the $153 million the Yankees spent to get him to switch sides this offseason by hitting .337/.391/.482, the top of the Red Sox’s order, by comparison, is sporting an big league-worst .175 average so far.

Still, let’s recognize that it’s extremely early. Boston is only 23 games into the season, and a 10-13 record can be turned around over one good weekend. And that might happen as the Red Sox head to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays in a three-game set.

The good news about hitting rock bottom, of course, is there’s only one place to go—up. That’s what the Red Sox have to keep in mind as they strive to fix what ails them and turn around this disastrous beginning.

As for how they might do that, manager John Farrell stressed that better pitching is the top priority, per Ricky Doyle of NESN:

It’s got to be led by our starters. That’s where, to me, any continuity and consistency can originate from; it’s that group. And that’s not to place added pressure on them. That’s just to say that in past years and situations or stretches of games where you see it like this, it has to come from the starting rotation to set the tone.

But first, the Red Sox need to put Thursday’s rock-bottom effort behind them. “The sooner we move past this one, the better,” Farrell said, via Browne. “We need to execute at a higher level, without question.”

Ross, the 13-year veteran, echoed that sentiment: “If you look at the big picture, this is one night. When you hold on to games like this, you’re in for a long season. Let’s scrap that one, let’s flush that one down the toilet.”

And don’t forget to close the lid.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

What good is talent to a fantasy owner who lacks timing?

Fantasy baseball—just like the real thing—is a game of skill, luck and timing. That last trait, in particular, comes in handy in regards to getting value in the trading game.

Knowing which player(s) to trade away and which to deal for—and knowing just the right time to do so—can make all the difference.

After all, it doesn’t get much better than making a move to unload a hot flavor-of-the-week type who’s about to cool off in exchange for a slumping stud who’s ready to take off.

Now, speaking of timing, let’s get to some players to sell high and buy low.

Statistics come from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, except where otherwise noted.

Begin Slideshow

What good is talent to a fantasy owner who lacks timing?

Fantasy baseball—just like the real thing—is a game of skill, luck and timing. That last trait, in particular, comes in handy in regards to getting value in the trading game.

Knowing which player(s) to trade away and which to deal for—and knowing just the right time to do so—can make all the difference.

After all, it doesn’t get much better than making a move to unload a hot flavor-of-the-week type who’s about to cool off in exchange for a slumping stud who’s ready to take off.

Now, speaking of timing, let’s get to some players to sell high and buy low.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.

Begin Slideshow

This is the Josh Hamilton the Los Angeles Angels thought they were getting. Alas, after paying the five-time All-Star $125 million over five years in December 2012, the 32-year-old’s start to 2013 was as cold as his 2014 beginning has been hot.

In his first month as an Angel, Hamilton batted a ghastly .204/.252/.296 on his way to hitting just .250/.307/.432 with 73 runs scored, 21 home runs and 79 RBI, all of which were career worsts for seasons in which Hamilton played at least 100 games.

This April, though, the 2010 AL MVP has been the exact opposite, with 12 hits in his first 24 at-bats (.500, if you couldn’t figure that out), along with a pair of homers and doubles apiece. All of which earned Hamilton a share of the AL player of the week, per Joey Nowak of MLB.com.

“(Hamilton is) obviously a different player than he was last year,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia said via Nowak‘s story. “He’s back to his playing weight (about 240 pounds). He has a comfort level in the box that started to come together the second half of last season but never really materialized the way it had before in his last couple years in Texas. Right now, we are seeing it. Hopefully, he’s in a better place in the batter’s box now and will maintain it for long stretches.”

That would be big for both the Angels, who once again have postseason aspirations, and Hamilton, who endured a calf strain that cost him a few weeks during spring training before making it back to hit .333/.378/.606 in March. Both sides want a redo on 2013, and a quick start is the best way to go about that.

Hamilton attributes his strong showing through the first seven games of the season to getting back his rhythm and timing in the batter’s box, according to Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. “Hitting is rhythm and timing,” the outfielder told Gonzalez. “If one is out of sync, you are going to struggle.”

With Hamilton not struggling at the outset of his second year in Los Angeles, it’s time to make some general statements about his performance so far and play a little Fact or Fiction with each.

Statement No. 1: Josh Hamilton’s power is back.

For a hitter like Hamilton, who sports a .532 career slugging percentage, power is paramount. That wasn’t the case in 2013, especially early on.

A year ago, Hamilton managed a measly .296 SLG and .548 OPS before May. From there, his power fluctuated some, but he actually put up a solid .464 SLG and .783 OPS after April. That’s not quite the Hamilton of old, but it indicates just how much his awful beginning drowned out the progress he made over the rest of the year.

To wit, Hamilton hit .329 with a .518 SLG and .909 OPS over his final 45 games from mid-August until the end of the year.

Now that he’s in his age-33 campaign, it’s only natural for Hamilton to experience some decline in his performance. Thing is, his last April was still more of an outlier than a clear indication that Hamilton’s days as a dangerous hitter were done.

Is he going to return to his 30-plus-homer ways from his peak seasons? It’s a possibility. And even though it’s more of a cute observation than anything else, there is this: Since 2008, Hamilton has topped 30 homers and 100 RBI every other year, and 2014 is one of those other years.

Is Hamilton’s power back? Seems so. In fact, one could make a claim that it was here all along and only went hibernating for a month or two early in 2013.

Verdict: Fact

Statement No. 2: Josh Hamilton’s plate discipline is improving.

For Hamilton to sustain this early-season success, the two keys are going to be his health and his plate discipline, both of which have been concerns during his career. While the former is hard to control to an extent, the latter—when and when not to swing—is something that is well within a player’s ability to maintain.

Hamilton has always qualified as a free swinger, as proven by his 56.1 percent swing percentage, which is the percentage of pitches a batter goes after, and he ranks among the top 10 highest in the sport since 2007, his first year.

To start 2014, though, Hamilton has been a wee bit more selective. His swing percentage is at 46.3 percent, which would be a career low by far. Here’s a look at Hamilton’s other plate-discipline metrics so far:

That table basically shows that Hamilton has been swinging at fewer pitches overall (Swing%) while also doing a better job of swinging at pitches in the strike zone (Z-Swing%) after a dip in 2013 and swinging at pitches outside the zone (O-Swing%) at a much better rate than in recent seasons.

Add it all up, and it’s not surprising that Hamilton already has drawn six walks and has whiffed only six times in his first 30 plate appearances. By comparison, in his first year with the Angels, Hamilton had only three walks against 11 strikeouts through his first 30 trips.

A sample size of 30 PA is too small to draw any conclusions about Hamilton’s plate discipline this year, or any player’s for that matter. Studies have shown that a player’s strikeout rate tends to stabilize around plate appearance No. 60, while his walk rate takes about twice as long.

If that holds true with Hamilton, then he’ll need to continue with his current approach through the rest of April before we really buy in. And even then, this is a hitter who always will have an aggressive mentality and some swing-and-miss to his game.

Verdict: Fact (for now)

Statement No. 3: Thanks in part to Josh Hamilton’s early success, the Angels can avoid a third straight disappointing season.

It’s all about April for the Angels, who have been underwhelming in the face of lofty expectations the past two years despite a ton of talent on the roster.

It’s too early to put much weight on the Angel’s 3-4 start following two series against fellow AL West clubs, the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros, but if any team in baseball needs to avoid a poor first month, it’s the Halos.

Here’s why. After April 2013, the club was just 9-17, and in April 2012, they went 8-15. From May on, though, they’ve been much, much better the past two seasons, going 69-67 last year and 81-58 in ’12.

The West is wide open at the moment, due to injuries that have the two preseason favorites to fight for the division crown more than a little short-handed: The Oakland Athletics are without Jarrod Parker after Tommy John surgery, while A.J. Griffin remains sidelined with elbow tendinitis; and the Texas Rangers lost Derek Holland for half the season after offseason knee surgery and Jurickson Profar with a shoulder injury suffered late in spring training that will cost him at least a couple months.

The Angels cannot afford to miss the opportunity that those injuries—as well as Hamilton’s hot start—is presenting. The rest of the team has to get on board with Hamilton and put together a strong opening month. After all, they’ve shown they can play well once the calendar flips to May.

Verdict: Fact

While the expectation shouldn’t be for Hamilton to regain his MVP form, he certainly should bounce back from a disappointing 2013. Ultimately, if that also helps the Angels do the same, then there’s a good chance they’ll be playing in October for the first time since 2009. That’s one final fact Hamilton and the Angels would like to change.

Statistics come from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, except where otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This season brings the 40-year anniversary of the legendary Hank Aaron breaking fellow Hall of Famer Babe Ruth’s all-time home run record. In fact, April 8, 1974—40 years ago today—is the exact date on which Aaron hit No. 715 to pass The Babe.

Since that fateful day, only one other player has reached that lofty plateau: Barry Bonds, whose 762 career homers are the new mark, seven ahead of Aaron’s final tally. In other words, in the 100-plus years of Major League Baseball history, exactly three players have achieved a home run total that is three digits and begins with a “7.”

That got us wondering: Will there ever be another 700-home run career, especially now that performance-enhancing drug testing exists in baseball and the penalties continue to get harsher?

PED testing with penalties for positive results began in 2004. Incidentally, that’s the same year Bonds—who later was convicted in federal court on one count of obstruction of justice in a trial that focused on his alleged steroid use—hit the 700th long ball of his career, becoming that third (and perhaps final) player to get there.

Before we examine the role power has played in the sport over that period of time, let’s put this fantastical possibility into context with some actual names and their current home run totals (entering Tuesday games).

Here are the active home run leaders, along with the number of homers per season each would need to average in order to get to No. 700 by age 40.

First of all, it should be pointed out that Alex Rodriguez, the active leader and No. 5 all time with 654, stood a fighting chance of getting to 700 before the big 4-0. Within striking distance of the 500 club at age 30, Rodriguez already had Bonds’ vote of confidence, via Bob Nightengale of USA Today: “He’ll be there. And there’ll be others. It ain’t like I’ll be the last one.”

Of course, that was long before A-Rod was suspended for the entire 2014 season as a result of the Biogenesis investigation.

Secondly, it should be pretty obvious that the only two current players from this batch who might have any sort of teeny-tiny shot at pulling this off are Albert Pujols (492), who needs to average just under 30 homers per season, and Miguel Cabrera (366), who is the youngest in the top 10 but still needs to manage—get this—more than 33 a year for the next 10 years to reach 700.

Yes, even the dominant, uber-consistent Cabrera is only barely halfway there!

Now that we’ve laid out how all-but-impossible this feat is for the best sluggers of today, specifically, let’s widen the scope and take a look at how much power has been in decline in recent seasons in the entire sport, due in no small part to the policing of PEDs.

In trying to fathom what it might look like for an individual player to even approach the possibility of a 700-homer career, figure that it would require an average of 40 home runs a season for 17 seasons—and even that would leave the slugger short by 20, since 40 x 17 = 680.

Using that 40-homer campaign as a somewhat realistic standard, then, here’s how many of those have occurred per season since 2003, the year before testing began:

Notice the downward trend, right? And if you want to put the numbers into perspective, consider this: The past seven seasons’ worth of 40-homer campaigns (23 from 2007-13) are a little more than half of the total from the four seasons prior (39 from 2003-06).

That’s a clunky way of saying that fewer 40-home run seasons are happening every year.

But what about going even more macro? The graph below shows the number of home runs in all of MLB per season over the same time frame (since 2003):

Again, the decline is plain as day. Whereas a year with at least 5,200 total homers was once the norm (see: 2003, 2004, 2006), that total hasn’t been touched since 2006, and even 5,000 home runs has happened only once in the past seven years—and that was back in 2009.

Conclusion? Fewer and fewer home runs are being hit overall.

Beyond the home run figures, there’s the fact that players are showing much more typical aging and performance curves over the past decade, which to some immeasurable but certainly noticeable extent can be attributed to the ban on PEDs.

In other words, not only are players able to play less while getting older, they’re also simultaneously playing at a decreased rate of performance. None of this should be surprising, but seeing the numbers proves as much.

Here’s a table that breaks down the number of players ages 35 and older who reached the 300-plate appearance threshold—about half a full season—as well as a look at their isolated power (ISO) since 2003:

As you can see, back in 2007—only seven years ago—38 players managed to compile at least 300 plate appearances in their age-35 (or older) season. In the past two seasons, 36 players have done so—combined. What’s more, that total (36) is the lowest in back-to-back years since 1995-1996 (also 36), which is almost 20 years ago.

As for the ISO column, which essentially measures a hitter’s raw power, the story is similar. For players at least 35 years old, the metric peaked during this period of time at .170 in 2004 and remained north of .150 through 2008, keeping it right in line with—if not above—the league-wide average. From 2009 on, though, the 35-and-up ISO has settled in the .135-.140 range, which is slightly below the MLB average in recent years.

The point here? To even fathom coming close to 700 career home runs, a player must be able to play and hit for power into his late 30s and early 40s—Bonds, Aaron and Ruth all got to 7-0-0 in their age-39 seasons—and that’s just not happening as much in the past handful of seasons as it was in the previous decade now that PED testing has become a part of the game.

Above all else, there remains one simple, undeniable fact: Hitting 700 home runs is freaking difficult, darn near impossible even. In case you forgot while looking through all the graphs and tables above, only three—T-H-R-E-E!—players in 100-plus years of MLB have done so. You know them as Barry, Hank and The Babe.

Will someone get to 700 homers ever again? Never say never, because it’s not out of the question that one of Rodriguez, Pujols or Cabrera could get there given what they’ve accomplished to this point in their careers.

There’s also no way of knowing how or when things will change in baseball in the years and decades ahead, including advancements in medicine, technology and training (legal or otherwise). Heck, in the early 1900s, few would have expected a player to hit even 40 home runs in any season, and then Ruth smashed that “barrier” with 54 in 1920 on his way to totaling 714 for his career.

But factor in the aging and production curves, which we’re already seeing take a toll on Pujols, and it’s looking like baseball’s best—and perhaps last—chance to see 700 home runs again in the immediate future might be Rodriguez. 

We already know that would be tainted in more ways than one if it were to happen at all once—or is that if?—he returns from his season-long suspension in 2015. If not, well, 700 still could be reached again by someone at some point—for only the fourth time ever—but it’ll be a good, long while. After all, Ruth hit No. 700 in 1934, Aaron did so in 1973 and Bonds got there in 2004.

By that math, this comes along about every 30 to 40 years or so. If that holds true, then the next 700-home run hitter has already been born.

Statistics come from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, except where otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Considering how it began, the first major league start by Masahiro Tanaka went about as well as that of any other big-name international signing in recent memory.

In his much-hyped, eagerly anticipated debut since signing with the New York Yankees this winter for a whopping $155 million, Tanaka pitched his new club to a 7-3 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night at the Rogers Centre.

The 25-year-old former Nippon Professional Baseball star’s introduction to Major League Baseball, though, started off rather inauspiciously right from the very first batter.

Former Yankee Melky Cabrera, the Jays outfielder and leadoff hitter, belted Tanaka‘s third pitch—an 86 mph changeup that was up and over the plate—for a solo home run in the bottom of the first.

Fortunately, the Yankees offense had scored a pair in the top half of the first inning, so New York still had the lead and a potential crisis was averted—temporarily, at least—when Tanaka struck out Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, two of the majors’ most dangerous sluggers, to end the first.

In the second, however, things didn’t exactly get any easier for Tanaka, as he allowed consecutive one-out singles before a throwing error by first baseman Mark Teixeira loaded the bases. The third single of the frame brought in two runs to put Toronto up 3-2.

With two on and still only one out, the situation was ripe for going from bad to worse. Again, though, the right-hander struck out the next two batters, Cabrera and Colby Rasmus—a pair of lefty swingers, no less—to end the threat.

From there, well, that’s when Tanaka more or less hit his stride, retiring 14 of 16 hitters from the third inning on, including four strikeouts and one double-play grounder. Only Encarnacion managed to do anything, lacing a double off the top of the wall in the bottom of the third, and then being awarded a hometown scorer’s single in the sixth on a play that should have been made (or called an error).

Over his final four frames—the fourth through the seventh—Tanaka faced the minimum, and at the end of the night, his line looked like so: 7.0 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 8:0 K:BB (65 of 97 strikes).

So how does Tanaka‘s MLB debut stack up against some of the other big-name, big-money international stars to come over from other professional foreign leagues?

Since Tanaka is a starting pitcher, let’s focus solely on that for the sake of comparison. Here’s a rundown of the first starts by 11 top talents, dating back to Nomo-mania in 1995: 

*Actual debut came in relief earlier in the season.

As the latest international sensation to cross over to MLB, Tanaka followed in the footsteps of his fellow foreigners, most of whom have had dynamite debuts.

If we’re rating Tanaka against his countrymen from the list above, a strong case could be made that his was the second-most impressive initial start of all seven, behind only Daisuke Matsuzaka’s gem from 2007.

Hiroki Kuroda’s 2008 outing and Hideo Nomo‘s 1995 introduction were both right there with Tanaka‘s, but the latter’s clearly was better than Yu Darvish‘s, whose first two innings in 2012 started off even shakier than Tanaka‘s did Friday night. After passing the mantle of NPB’s top hurler to Tanaka, Darvish has become one of MLB’s best starters, as he led the majors with 277 strikeouts in 2013.

And measuring up Tanaka relative to the one-time international studs who also made their debuts with the Yankees, he was about as good as Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez’s 1998 performance but not quite on par with Jose Contreras’ effort in 2003.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that he matched up with “El Duque,” either, as former teammate Tino Martinez explained in an exclusive interview with Bleacher Report’s Joe Giglio:

El Duque handled it well. When he got off to a good start, the expectation level really rose. He became a sensation and an unknown at the same time. Tanaka’s fame will be even greater. He’s ready for it. The poise, confidence. I wouldn’t be surprised if he matches or exceeds what El Duque did early on for us.

What does this mean for Tanaka and the Yankees going forward? Well, it’s only one start, and while almost all of the pitchers from that table above threw well their first time around, they went on to varying degrees of success thereafter.

The good news, though, is that while Hideki Irabu, Jose Contreras and Daisuke Matsuzaka ultimately proved to be disappointing given the hype that accompanied them to the United States, the only one who completely flamed out and never amounted to even a capable innings-eater was Kei Igawa.

Of course, Igawa was brought here by—that’s right—the Yankees, who also signed Irabu and Contreras. In fairness, they also unearthed El Duque.

Also? The Yankees aren’t paying Tanaka $155 million to be merely an innings-eater. They are expecting, or at least hoping—and certainly needing—him to be a dominant front-of-the-rotation horse who can adapt and adjust to the major leagues.

Again, it’s only one start, but in his MLB debut, Tanaka did a little adapting, adjusting and dominating all in one. Ultimately, that’s good for both Tanaka and the Yankees. Especially considering how it all started.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Is there such a thing as an “April advantage” in baseball, and if so which side—hitters or pitchers—has the edge in the season’s first month? With the calendar flipped to April and the 2014 regular season already underway, now is as good a time as any to explore this concept.

To do so, we took a look over the past five years—the 2009 through 2013 seasons—and found the averages for hitters in several key statistics from the month of April* and compared those to the league-wide averages in the same metrics over the course of the entire season. This was achieved by using FanGraphs’ nifty statistical database.

*Technically, the numbers come from March and April, because that’s how the splits are most easily spliced, but only a very small percentage of Major League Baseball games actually occur in March.

Let’s start with the hitters and then jump over to the pitchers.

Here, then, is a look at hitter performance from each of the past five Aprils in a number of categories, along with hitters’ overall performance in those same categories over the entire year as shown in the row below:

First of all, let’s point out here that what’s great about using FanGraphs for this is that the data can be manipulated so as to exclude pitchers from the hitting element, which only waters down the numbers (and looks silly most of the time, if we’re being completely honest).

Secondly, the statistics chosen are all of the rate and ratio variety, which makes it easier to compare a one-month sample to a six-month sample. Trying to use raw numbers for this wouldn’t be helpful unless they were broken down to a per-game basis.

Now then, what are the takeaways? Well, as you might be able to infer, the highlighting indicates whether hitter performance was better in April or better over the entire season. Given that bit of information, it’s easy to see that hitters actually came in above their respective full-season average in Aprils of 2013, 2010 and 2009.

Maybe not quite what you expected, huh?

Of course, none of the disparities from April compared to April through September are all that egregious, but we’re also talking about tens of thousands of plate appearances in any given month and hundreds of thousands over a full season. So, yeah, even differences that appear minor do add up over such large samples and extended periods of time.

OK, now for the pitching side of things. Here’s a breakdown of overall pitchers’ performance in several metrics from April of each of the past five seasons compared to the rest of the year:

Same deal applies—the highlighting shows whether pitchers were better in April or better from April through September.

In case it’s not immediately clear, the pitching stats are the exact inverse of the hitting stats. Which is to say, when the hitters were better in April of a particular season, the pitchers were worse that same April—take a look at 2013 in both tables again, for example.

On the other hand, when pitchers were better in April, the hitters were worse, which is what happened in 2011 and 2012. This, of course, makes all sorts of sense when you think about it for even a brief moment.

Again, though, it needs to be made clear that while there are differences and fluctuations, they are very slight.

The bottom line that can be drawn from all these numbers? Unfortunately, there’s no cut-and-dry answer about which side holds the edge in April over the past handful of seasons, based on what the statistics above show.

So while you might have expected pitchers to have an advantage early on relative to the rest of the season—perhaps wanting to attribute as much to the idea that batters need an adjustment period to get their timing down or even that the colder weather might make hitting more challenging by limiting hard contact as well as the flight of the ball—the results don’t always bear that out, at least in recent years.

About the only definitive conclusion that can be made is that pitching has been taking over the sport since 2009. But then, you probably already knew that.

Statistics come from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com