Kuzul

Max Scherzer is the biggest pitching prize still on the free-agent market, but there is another starter still without a team who is due for a big payday soon.  Former Kansas City Royal James Shields is a little old at 33, but he has had an impressive career and should have plenty of suitors.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported earlier this week that he was told by two executives that Shields has a five-year, $110 million offer on the table.

But in Shields’ case, the question is not whether or not he is a good pitcher, but whether he is worth such a huge contract.

Considering that he is going into his age-33 season, he would be 37 years old while still under contract.  That is very old for a pitcher, especially one with as much mileage on his arm as Shields.  Only four other pitchers accumulated more innings than Shields from 2007 to 2012, according to Baseball-Reference.com, and it is questionable if he can sustain that durability throughout the duration of his contract.

One positive statistic for Shields going forward is that he hasn’t lost velocity on his fastball as he has gotten older.  In fact, his velocity has increased every year since 2011, according to Fangraphs.  This indicates that he might have what it takes to be a workhorse deep into his 30s.

Another thing that needs to be taken into account is the other big-time arms on the market this offseason.  Max Scherzer is reportedly looking for at least $200 million, and Jon Lester signed a six-year, $155 million contract with the Cubs in early December.  Shields is not quite as good as either of those guys, but his stats show that he is at least in the conversation.  With that in mind, $110 million for Shields might be a bargain considering what other aces on the market have signed for.

It also needs to be noted that the team that eventually signs Shields is getting not only a quality pitcher but one who can transform an entire pitching staff.  When he was traded to the Royals before the 2013 season, they were a hopeless franchise.  Only two years later, they were playing in the World Series.

Shields changed the culture of the rotation, infusing the mindset of taking the ball every fifth day and competing as much as possible.  The Royals‘ pitching is what led them deep into October, and Shields was a big reason why.

So the intangibles have to be considered in addition to his statistics.  Not only is he likely to give his new team 30 to 35 starts and over 200 innings per season, but he also helps improve the people around him.

In conclusion, the $110 million rumor is not overly outrageous.  Realistically, it is way too much for any player, but in an age when baseball teams are making more and more money, Shields’ body of work should net him at least $100 million.

If Lester is worth $155 million and Scherzer is hoping for $200 million, then it doesn’t seem too far-fetched that Shields will sign at least a $100 million contract.

He has proven in his career to be one of the most durable workhorses in the league, and whoever signs him will drastically improve their pitching staff.

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Ever since Guggenheim Baseball Management purchased the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2012, the Dodgers have been the most polarizing team in MLB.  They immediately went out and acquired superstars like Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez, infusing a drastic win-now philosophy into the organization. 

The Dodgers were second in the league in team salary in 2013, and their payroll ballooned to over $235 million in 2014, which led the league by over $30 million, according to Deadspin.

However, that star-studded roster could not bring a World Series championship to Hollywood in either year.  They managed to only win one playoff series, losing to the Cardinals in the NLCS in 2013 and then again to the Redbirds last year in the first round.

Only one week after the Dodgers lost in Game 4 of the NLDS to St. Louis, the club’s front office underwent some changes.  They lured Andrew Friedman away from the Rays, making him the new president of baseball operations and reassigning former general manager Ned Colletti to a different position within the organization.

Friedman was expected to get the payroll under control, especially since he had to be frugal in his tenure in Tampa Bay, but he took it to another level, slashing payroll in his first winter meetings in blue.  He wasted no time trading Matt Kemp and choosing not to re-sign Hanley Ramirez.

But even with the shift in philosophy, the ownership wants to win now, and it doesn’t really care how much money it has to spend, which is why there is a possibility that the Dodgers could pursue the biggest fish left on the free-agent market, Max Scherzer.

Scherzer is represented by Scott Boras, and his asking price is reportedly somewhere north of $200 million.  There is only one pitcher in MLB history who has signed a contract of at least $200 million, and it’s Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw.

Despite Scherzer’s phenomenal success the past two years, his market has been unimpressive.  The Scherzer negotiations are completely different than Jon Lester’s. Leading up to Lester’s signing, there was seemingly endless rumor and speculation, with several teams clamoring for position. 

With Scherzer, though, there haven’t been any teams that have announced they are “all in” on signing the 2013 Cy Young winner. 

That perceived lack of interest will probably not lower Scherzer’s price tag due to Boras’ historic brilliance of getting his clients top dollar, but it does leave the window open for the Dodgers to shock the baseball world.

If they do sign Scherzer, they would undoubtedly have the best starting rotation in the MLB.  A staff consisting of Kershaw, Scherzer, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu would be nearly unhittable, especially in a best-of-five or best-of-seven playoff series.

The Dodgers already unloaded Kemp and Ramirez, giving them a bit of flexibility from a financial standpoint, and it’s not like the L.A executives are going to pass up a chance to drastically improve their team just because of money. 

They have shown that they are not afraid of massive contracts, and Scherzer could be the next one they sign.

If that is the case, the Dodgers immediately become my pick to win the World Series.  They would have the best starting rotation in the game, and they still have plenty of firepower, even without Kemp and Ramirez, in an offense that features Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez and the newly acquired Howie Kendrick.

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The winter meetings may be over, but there are still plenty of MLB transactions to be made.  One of the most intriguing trade possibilities remains Troy Tulowitzki to the Mets. 

This move makes about as much sense as any trade can.  The Rockies have been trying for the last decade, albeit unsuccessfully, to improve their pitching, and the Mets’ only major need is at shortstop.

The Rockies don’t have the necessary talent on their current roster to be a contender, so it would be prudent to unload Tulowitzki and his massive contract in an effort to build for the future.  The Mets, on the other hand, have been in rebuilding mode since 2006 and are seemingly one piece away from making a playoff push in 2015.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently reported that the two teams have been talking for months now about a possible trade involving Tulowitzki, and even though he says that the sides are still pretty far apart in the negotiations, the fact that they are still talking is a positive.

The Mets have been stockpiling young pitchers for the past few years, and they now have an overabundance of hard-throwing starters.  Unloading one or two of them in a trade is not going to kill the rotation. 

The current starting rotation looks like this: Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese and then either Bartolo Colon or Dillon Gee.  They also have Rafael Montero and Jenrry Mejia, who are former starters but will pitch out of the bullpen due to the number of competent pitchers in the organization. 

Also, the Mets have a pitcher still in the minor leagues who might be the most talented on the team. Noah Syndergaard is only 22 years old, but he is expected to make his debut this year and be a star soon after.

Jeurys Familia and Vic Black both had terrific seasons last year out of the ‘pen, and Bobby Parnell will return as the closer, according to what Mets manager Terry Collins told the New York Post in a recent article.

In other words, the Mets have a plethora of pitching.  They are not going to miss one or two pitchers if they are traded away.  It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Rockies are going to need Syndergaard in the trade package, and even if they ask for Wheeler, the Mets should definitely oblige.

Tulowitzki is one of the premier players in the league despite his history of injuries.  He hit .340 with 21 homers in 2014 while only playing 91 games.  He plays a position that has very few power hitters, making him one of the most valuable players in the MLB when he is on the field.

There are also questions about how Tulo’s game will transfer should he leave the hitter-friendly thin air of Coors Field.  He has hit 78 points higher with eight more home runs at home than away over the past three years, so that argument may have some merit, but at the same time, the Colorado climate is one of the biggest reasons for Tulowitzki’s past injuries.

However, the Mets should ignore any doubts in their pursuit of Tulo.  Sandy Alderson has assembled a solid nucleus of skilled players, pitchers as well as hitters, and a solid shortstop might be the last piece of the puzzle.

Tulowitzki is still owed about $118 million over the next six years, and the clubs have not discussed money in their trade talks. 

While that contract might be a bit pricey, the Mets have not made the playoffs since 2006, and the time is now.  It is extremely hard to win on baseball’s biggest stage, and the Mets cannot let their conservative nature get in the way of success.  New York is arguably the biggest market in America, so if they do indeed get to be championship contenders, they will get boatloads of publicity and national exposure.  Tulo would immediately infuse a sense of excitement into an organization that has been a bit dormant recently.

Tulowitzki does not have a no-trade clause in his contract, but the Colorado ownership has made it clear that it is not going to make any decisions without its star shortstop’s input.  But even if the Mets have to part ways with a few players in order to make a trade package too good for the Rockies to refuse, they should do it.

The addition of Tulo immediately makes New York a playoff team.  The pitching is unquestionably going to be dominant, but a lineup with Tulowitzki in the middle of it will be surprisingly potent.

Daniel Murphy has quietly been one of the best offensive second baseman in the majors the past four years and would only benefit from hitting in front of Tulo.  David Wright is arguably the best third baseman in the National League when healthy, and he should rebound from a mediocre year last season to have a stellar 2015.  Lucas Duda hit 30 homers in 2014 and will likely hit even more next year thanks to the shorter fences in Citi Field.

Travis d’Arnaud continues to develop as a big league catcher.  He caught fire in September, hitting .313, and the Mets hope he carries that production over to the upcoming year.  Juan Lagares and Curtis Granderson will be consistent everyday players in the outfield, and newly-acquired Michael Cuddyer could thrive in his new environment.

The Mets have a chance to compete in the NL East in 2015 without Tulowitzki, but with the best shortstop in the league on the roster, they would be solid contenders.  It is impossible to know if this move will happen, but if the Mets have any opportunity to acquire Tulowitzki, they should pursue it with unprecedented vigor.

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The Toronto Blue Jays made big news late last week, executing a blockbuster trade with the Oakland A’s, receiving Josh Donaldson in exchange for Brett Lawrie and three prospects.

This comes after the Jays shelled out $82 million for free agent catcher Russell Martin on November 20. 

Continuing the philosophy that general manager Alex Anthopoulos and the rest of the front office have implemented recently, the Blue Jays want to win now.  The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays all struggled last year, but Toronto wasn’t able to capitalize, finishing 83-79 and third in the AL East.

However, they were without one of their best hitters for most of 2014.  Edwin Encarnacion played in only 128 games because of a quad injury he suffered in Baltimore in July, and Brett Lawrie missed over half the season.  Those two injuries caused the Jays to have to shuffle a variety of mediocre players at the corner infield positions.

But with Donaldson, who is one of the most consistent players in the game over the past two seasons, the Blue Jays offense has the potential to be among the most productive in the league.

Shortstop Jose Reyes starts it off at the top of the order, giving them a steady leadoff hitter when healthy.  Even though he has lost a step at age 31, he still stole 30 of 32 attempts in 2014 and got on base at a solid .328 clip.  If he can find a way to stay on the field for 140 to 150 games, he has the skills to be one of the best leadoff hitters in the MLB.

If Reyes can get on base on a regular basis, he will have no trouble scoring an abundance of runs.  Jose Bautista, Encarnacion and Donaldson comprise one of the scariest 3-4-5 hearts of the order in the game.  Manager John Gibbons has not yet announced where he plans to place Donaldson in the lineup, but I assume it will be either third, in front of Bautista and Encarnacion, or fifth, behind the two power studs.

And, if the Jays choose to re-sign Melky Cabrera, CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman tweeted that they were interested, he would occupy the second spot, and Toronto would have arguably the best top of the order in all of baseball.  

Bautista and Encarnacion are monsters.  Bautista has averaged better than 37 home runs and 93 RBI in the past five years, and Encarnacion has averaged the same number of homers and 104 RBI.  Even when Encarnacion missed more than 30 games last year, he still managed to record 34 dingers.

Donaldson thinks along the same lines.  He was very optimistic about his new opportunity in Toronto.

“You start looking at the capability of this lineup and the potential that it brings,” Donaldson told the Associated Press via ESPN.com.  “I’m going to venture to say there’s probably not going to be another lineup as potent as this in major league baseball.”

Not only will the team be more potent with the addition of the All-Star third baseman, but Donaldson’s power numbers should rise significantly playing in his new home park. 

In a recent article in the New York Daily News, Bill Madden quoted a veteran scout saying this about Josh Donaldson:

Donaldson, with his righthanded power, could be a monster in the AL East.  Just think about it — he’s trading home games in Oakland for home games in Toronto, as well as 19 games in Seattle for 19 games in Boston and Baltimore, each.  It’s a great pickup for them and you’ve got to love their lineup now.

Madden is talking about the reputation of the AL East ballparks being more hitter-friendly than AL West ballparks.  Toronto, Boston and Baltimore are known for dramatically raising power numbers, while Seattle and Oakland are where power hitters go to die.

The Blue Jays are a team on the rise, a talented roster that has not yet been able to put anything together.  They have not played in a postseason game in 21 years, the longest active streak in the MLB.

So it is pretty safe to assume that the Toronto offense is going to be very good, but they could use some help in the pitching department.  They have a decent starting rotation consisting of R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchinson, but they need to add an arm or two to the back end of the bullpen.

Even though they let Casey Janssen, their closer the past three seasons, walk in free agency, they are back in contention for his services, according to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star. 

They hope top prospect Daniel Norris can contribute at the big league level in 2015, but it’s nearly impossible to project how he would perform out of the bullpen.

As they are now, the Blue Jays have added enough hitting help to improve their record by at least a handful of victories.  But if they can add a pitcher via trade or free agency or find a hidden gem in their farm system, the Jays have what it takes to end their playoff drought. 

And who knows, maybe they can be 2015’s version of the Kansas City Royals.

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In only about three years, Theo Epstein has built the Chicago Cubs farm system into one of the game’s best.  Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez and Jorge Soler are four of the most exciting young prospects in the league, and 28-year-old right-hander Jake Arrieta emerged on the scene as a potential ace with a sterling year in 2014.

The Cubs also made national headlines recently with their hiring of Joe Maddon, one of the best managers in the league.  Maddon found a way to win with a Tampa Bay Rays team that was young and fairly talented.  Give him a loaded roster of perennial prospects, and the ceiling seems limitless.

However, they still need to add one more very important piece: a dominant starting pitcher who can pitch deep into games every fifth day and take the ball in the first game of the playoff series the Cubs hope to be in, possibly this year.

Jon Lester seems to fit the bill.  He is as durable as they come, recording at least 31 starts in each of the past seven years and pitching at least 200 innings in six of those years.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, it looks like their chances of signing Lester might be slipping away.  The Cubs made their pitch to the southpaw Tuesday, but Peter Gammons said on Dennis & Callahan, via WEEI.com, that his sources lead him to believe Lester will end up signing elsewhere.

“I think the one thing—obviously the Cubs are going to make every play—I get the feeling the Cubs think he’s going to go back to Boston,” he said. “I think it’s very smart for Lester and his agents to hold for another week.” 

However, it’s not like the Cubs need to put all their eggs in the Lester basket.  There is another superb starting pitcher on the free-agent market—a guy by the name of Max Scherzer.

Scherzer and Lester are both 30 years old, but Scherzer doesn’t have nearly the experience or the postseason pedigree Lester has.  Scherzer was a late bloomer, a former elite prospect who finally came into his own when he was traded to the Detroit Tigers from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Scherzer has actually been a better pitcher than Lester over the past three years:

While Lester has a few more innings pitched over that span, Scherzer has a much better win-loss record, a lower ERA and 160 more strikeouts.

I still think Lester would be a better fit due to his longer track record of success and his sterling postseason statistics, but if the Cubs cannot convince him, Scherzer is a terrific option.

He has put together a tremendous three-year run in the American League, so he should be even more dominant in the National League, where he would have the luxury of facing the pitcher’s spot instead of a designated hitter.

However, Scherzer is going to demand a huge payday.  A Scott Boras client, the 2013 Cy Young Award winner turned down a six-year, $144 million extension from the Tigers before the 2013 season.  

The fact that he rejected such a lucrative offer means he is going to relish his time on the open market, with Boras viciously negotiating with as many teams as he can get in the ring plus the “mystery team” he can engender to raise the stakes.

The Cubs are hoping to win now, and they are not going to let money stand in the way of winning their first World Series ring since 1908.  

With Scherzer headlining a rotation that features Arrieta, Edwin Jackson and Travis Wood, the Cubs would have plenty of pitching to complement their potentially dominant offense. 

If they do sign Scherzer or Lester, the Cubs could be legitimate contenders to make the playoffs in 2015. Once they get in, anything could happen.  And a dominant ace would give them a much better chance of making a deep postseason run.

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It rained all day yesterday in Kansas City, so much that Game 3 of the American League Championship Series between the Royals and Orioles was postponed.  The rainout gives both teams an extra day of rest, but which team does the rainout help most?

The Royals won the first two games of the series, both close games played in Baltimore, but I think the rainout actually helps the Orioles more than it does the Royals.

Up 2-0 as the series moves back to Kansas City, the Royals have all of the momentum.  They have not lost a game yet this postseason and seem to be a team of destiny at this point.  The Orioles, on the other hand, are on the brink of having their season end soon.

There have been only three teams in MLB history that have come back from a 2-0 hole to win a League Championship Series.  And all three of those lost the first two games on the road and were able to regroup as the series came back to their home turf.

The Orioles, however, lost two consecutive games at Camden Yards and will have to scratch and claw to prolong the series past the minimum four games.

So the day off presumably takes some of the momentum away from the Royals, thus evening the teams a bit.

It’s not just for momentum purposes, though; it’s also the men calling the shots.  Buck Showalter is revered as one of the game’s best managers, while you would be hard-pressed to find someone who disagrees that the Royals have won in spite of Ned Yost, not because of him.

The day off gives both managers the opportunity to reshuffle their pitching staffs as they see fit.  The Orioles can bring back Chris Tillman on regular rest, and the Royals can start James Shields if they choose. 

The O’s need a win in Tuesday’s Game 3, so it would be sensible to put their best pitcher on the hill with their backs against the wall.  For the Royals, it’s a bit different.

Do they want to have Shields pitch against the opposing ace or save him to pitch against the O’s No. 2 starter?  Do they really want to use Shields again this early in the series, or give him a little extra rest so he’s ready to go if the series gets closer?

Those are all questions that Yost can ponder with the extra day off, but Showalter can as well.  It seems like the tide has to turn sometime, and maybe the Orioles will catch a break or two. 

The rainout basically adds up to an extra day of rest to allow both pitching staffs to refuel.  If the series goes six or seven games, whoever handles the pitching staff best will have the advantage. 

If history is any indication, the Orioles are better suited in that department; thus, they are going to benefit more from this rainout.  Give a mad scientist like Showalter an extra day to contemplate future moves, and the results have a good chance of improving.

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Justin Verlander has struggled this year.  Actually, that’s a bit generous. 

Sugarcoating aside, he has been terrible.  His current 4.54 ERA is the second-highest of his career, and his strikeout total is at its lowest since 2006, his first full season in the big leagues.  His 1.40 WHIP is tied for the highest in his career, and he just hasn’t been the dominant ace he once was.

However, maybe that ace is starting to come back as the games become more important.  He pitched a gem two starts ago against the Royals, the Tigers’ biggest AL Central competitors, and outdueled White Sox ace Chris Sale on Wednesday.

In that start against Chicago, he was masterful.  He allowed seven hits, struck out six and did not walk a batter while pitching eight innings for only the second time all season.

Verlander’s recent performance is almost a carbon copy of last year’s.  He was not quite as bad in 2013 as he has been so far this year, but it seems that he is once again flipping a switch as October nears.

In last year’s postseason, Verlander took the team on his back, leading the Tigers past the Athletics with two stellar outings in the ALDS.  He started Games 2 and 5, and his two fantastic outings in those games brought back memories from his Cy Young-winning 2012 season. 

In Game 2, he struck out 11 in seven scoreless innings of work, but the Tigers couldn’t muster any offense and lost 1-0.  Then, with the season on the line in a winner-take-all Game 5, Verlander prolonged the season with 10 more strikeouts in eight scoreless innings, catapulting Detroit into the next round.

He turned in a similar effort in Game 3 of the ALCS, but the one run he gave up in eight innings was enough to get him the loss as the Tigers once again came out on the short side of a 1-0 game.

2014 has been eerily similar.  He started the season strong but ran into a wall in the second month of the season.  He pitched poorly in May, June and July, amassing ERAs of 5.54, 6.82 and 4.78, respectively.

He started pitching better in August, but then a debacle against the Pirates saw him pitch only one inning, give up five runs and then injure himself running to first after a sacrifice bunt.  That fluke injury forced him to miss some time, and it seemed like he and his team had both hit rock bottom.

Even after acquiring David Price from the Rays in a stunning trade minutes before the trade deadline, the Tigers were out of first place and in danger of missing the playoffs altogether.  The bullpen was so bad that some speculated about the Tigers inserting Verlander into the closer’s role for the postseason.

The Tigers decided to stick with Verlander in the rotation, and he has made good on that trust.  The Tigers are 6-1 in Verlander’s seven starts since returning to the rotation, and he has gotten the victory in five of those.

Detroit’s magic number is now three, meaning if a combination of Tigers wins and Royals losses reaches three, the Tigers clinch the division and avoid the treacherous one-off Wild Card Game.

If Verlander is right, which I think he is now, the Tigers are going to be scary over the course of a five- or seven-game playoff series.

An overpowering pitching rotation of Max Scherzer, David Price, Verlander and Rick Porcello will be very tough for any opponent, and the offense is pretty good as well.

Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are two of the best hitters in the entire MLB, and the additions of Ian Kinsler and Rajai Davis give the lineup a dynamic it didn’t have last year.  For example, when Davis stole his 35th base of the season in Wednesday’s win against the White Sox, it matched the number of steals the Tigers stole as a team in 2013.

In last year’s playoff run that ended in the ALCS against the Red Sox, the offense did not have anything even resembling a running threat, forcing the Tigers to play base-to-base baseball, basically waiting for an extra-base hit or a string of hits to score runs.

Now, though, they have Davis, who has over 300 stolen bases in his career.  He has been one of the league’s most prolific base stealers over the past six years; he has averaged 42 steals over those years.  You can guarantee that if the Tigers are locked in a close game, Brad Ausmus will have the confidence to give Davis the green light to get into scoring position.

Back to pitching, the bullpen has been disastrous for most of the season.  The Tigers signed Joe Nathan in the offseason, but his ERA has been around five all year.  They acquired Joakim Soria at the deadline for some late-inning help, and Anibal Sanchez has returned from the disabled list as a reliever as well.

However, Verlander might be the X-factor.  Which one will show up: the terrific Verlander or the one with a 4.50 ERA?

If last year is any indication, Verlander will turn it on and be an ace.  If he can pitch at the same level he did in last year’s postseason, the Tigers have to be dark-horse candidates to advance all the way to the World Series.

The American League is loaded with the likes of the Angels, Orioles, and A’s, but with Verlander at his best, the Tigers have three Cy Young-caliber pitchers to go along with one of the best offenses in the league. 

It’s going to come down to Verlander, and if he is up to the task, watch out for the Detroit Tigers.

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There’s rebuilding projects, and then there’s the Houston Astros.  Ever since the team went to the World Series in 2005, the entire organization has been in shambles. 

Sure, they won 86 games in 2008, but that is their only time in the past eight years to win more than 80 games.  They are currently on their seventh different manager in those eight years, and their attendance has plummeted to one of the lowest in the league.

Even worse, the Astros continued to refuse to secede into full-blown rebuilding mode.  General managers Tim Purpura and Ed Wade repeatedly made questionable decisions in trades, in the draft and in offseason free agency.

Despite maintaining a higher payroll than they should have, the Astros still could not find any success.  Finally, Drayton McLane mercifully sold the team to Jim Crane, giving the franchise the opportunity for a fresh start.

Crane hired Jeff Luhnow to be his GM.  Luhnow, a Penn-educated engineer, drastically cut the Astros’ payroll and started over.  He got rid of all the team’s established players, fielding a roster of mostly minor league caliber players.  It was an admirable undertaking, but one that was slated to get worse before it got better.

After nearly three full seasons utilizing Luhnow’s new ideals in the front office, it has definitely not been easy.  The Astros blew past the 100-loss plateau in both 2012 and 2013, and they are once again one of the worst teams in the league this year.  However, there is obvious improvement regarding the on-field talent, especially recently.

In their last series, the Astros beat the A’s twice in a best-of-three series.  This comes after they took three of four games from the Rangers and also swept the Angels in a brief two-game series. 

In the past, Houston wouldn’t have even been able to compete with legitimate playoff contenders like the Athletics and Angels, much less win.  Even with the recent turmoil in the front office—Luhnow was reportedly not seeing eye to eye with manager Bo Porter before Porter’s firing—the Astros are still winning. 

Unfortunately, winning the rest of the way will not be overly beneficial to the Astros.  They are nearly mathematically eliminated from the postseason at this point, currently trailing the Mariners by 15.5 games for the second Wild Card spot, so winning will only earn them a lower draft pick in next year’s draft.

However, with Luhnow’s past success in the MLB draft, it won’t much matter what spot they get.  The Astros are already slated for the second overall selection in the 2015 draft due to their inability to sign this year’s first overall pick Brady Aiken. 

The Astros might be undermanned at the big-league level, but there is plenty of talent working its way up the minor-league ladder.  Carlos Correa headlines the plethora of highly-touted prospects in the Houston farm system, but Mark Appel, Domingo Santana and Colin Moran are also projected to be solid major leaguers. 

Widely thought of as one of the top three farm systems, the Astros’ future is only a few years away from reaching the big leagues.  Recent draft picks Lance McCullers Jr., Rio Ruiz, A.J. Reed, Tony Kemp and Derek Fisher are already making a name for themselves in the lower levels of the minor leagues.  Expect them to move up the ladder at an expedited rate.

Not to mention the high-upside youngsters who are already at the big-league level.  Jon Singleton, the team’s former top prospect, is working out the kinks in The Show after his June call-up.  Mike Foltynewicz has been a nice weapon out of the bullpen, as his 100 mph fastball suits him as a reliever more than a starter.

Dallas Keuchel is a homegrown pitcher, and his breakout season has him looking like a solid future starter.  The starting rotation is filled with other young arms, and they will only get better with time.  Also, they recently announced that they will be implementing a six-man rotation for the foreseeable future.  They recalled Nick Tropeano, the Astros’ No. 13 prospect, according to MLB.com, to fill that sixth slot.

They have been relatively quiet this season on the trade and free-agent market, but they did make one move at the July 31 trade deadline.  They shipped Jarred Cosart and others to the Marlins for outfielder Jake Marisnick and Colin Moran.  Moran, the sixth pick in the 2013 MLB draft, was expected to be the centerpiece of that trade, but Marisnick has been better than expected.

Always known for his outstanding defensive attributes, Marisnick has contributed with the bat so far in Houston.  He sports a .250 average during his time in Houston after hanging around the Mendoza Line in his past MLB experiences.  He has also chipped in with several timely hits for the Astros, and that kind of clutch hitting is a luxury going forward.

The organization also has a few cornerstone players who the Astros can build around if they choose.  Jose Altuve has blossomed into one of the most productive second basemen in the entire MLB.  He has always been a solid infielder, but 2014 has been the ultimate breakout season. 

Always known as a free-swinging singles hitter, Altuve has set career highs this year in hits, doubles, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  There are still 20 games left to play, plenty of time for the Venezuelan second baseman to also surpass his previous career highs in both home runs and RBIs. 

Most impressive, however, has been his aggressiveness on the basepaths.  He has stolen 51 bases this year while only being caught seven times.  His 5.2 WAR ranks eighth in the American League, meaning he is one of the most valuable players in the Junior Circuit.  To put his number into context, Mike Trout’s WAR is 6.6 and Jose Bautista’s is 4.2.

The Astros might have also uncovered a gem in Chris Carter.  The powerful right-handed hitter has shown his massive power on occasion in the past, but he finally put it all together this year.  His average still sits at a paltry .235, but he is finally tapping into his prolific home run potential.  He is currently second in the American League with 36 home runs and has driven in 85 runners, many of them coming late in close games. 

I’m not sure if he is in the Astros’ long-term plans because of his age and propensity to strike out, but he is an excellent placeholder even if the Astros have another first baseman/designated hitter in mind.  Carter doesn’t bring much to the table regarding defense or baserunning, but if you’re only going to possess one of the five tools that scouts talk about, power is the one to have.

While the two aforementioned players are very good, there is one player in the organization who is in a league of his own.  Unlike Carter, outfielder George Springer is a legitimate five-tool player.  He can hit tape-measure home runs and is also very fast, giving him the unique blend of power and speed that is matched by very few. 

Springer was called up in April, and after adjusting to major league pitching, he started to rake.  He launched ten homers in May and then six in June.  The former first-round pick struck out at an alarming rate, but he has been working on that and should be able to hit for a higher average in the future.

So with the Astros’ string of moderate success, it seems they are barely even scratching the surface of their overall potential.  With all the losing, the Astros have stockpiled plenty of jewels in the draft.  It has been a drastic uphill climb, but they finally have a loaded farm system that is poised for possible greatness.

It will be interesting going forward to see what the Astros do next.  Once the first crop of prospects is in the major leagues, Luhnow will have to decide when it is the right time to become buyers instead of sellers.  When it is indeed time, the Astros will not hesitate to pull off a blockbuster trade or sign a marquee free agent. 

“If we do our jobs and get some breaks going our way and the fans start coming back,” Luhnow said in an early 2012 interview.  “We’re going to be able to push the payroll to a point where we can compete year in and year out.”

However, Luhnow knows that there must be a steady nucleus of homegrown players to make free agents work. 

“You can’t win with just free agents.  Everybody knows that.  Even the Yankees know that,” Luhnow said in that same interview.

There are still plenty of questions regarding the club’s future, including the fact that most of the prospects are largely unproven.  However, considering Luhnow’s phenomenal success rate from his time in the St. Louis Cardinals’ scouting department, the Astros are in pretty good shape.

But Lunhow’s arrogant nature has to be concerning as well.  He all but ran Porter out of town because they did not see eye to eye on all issues.  If for some reason his plan doesn’t begin to show some dividends in the near future, his seat will consistently get hotter and hotter.

The bullpen has been a massive question mark for the Astros this year as well.  Veteran closer Chad Qualls has repeatedly blown huge leads, and the rest of the relieving core has been below average at best.  Tony Sipp is a decent left-handed specialist, but after that it gets shaky.  Foltynewicz will eventually be a valuable weapon out of the pen, but in the interim, the Astros are going to lose a lot of leads late in games unless they specifically address that area.

All in all, the Astros have arguably the most long-term potential of any organization in the league.  Still, their future success is solely dependent on how fast the prospects progress.  Once they start producing at the major-league level, the front office can explore other avenues to solidify the roster. 

2015 is not going to be the year when they are legitimate contenders, but I think by 2016 or 2017 they will be one of the premier teams in the American League.  Prospects are incredibly tough to gauge, but the Astros have stored up enough of them that at least a few of them will become stars.

If that happens, all of the losing will be worth it.  Hopefully a few winning seasons will bring more spectators to Minute Maid Park, and they can build a loyal fanbase that will support them in the coming years.

The American League West has developed into one of the toughest divisions in all of baseball, but if the Astros’ prized prospects become as good as most scouts think they can, Houston’s ceiling is nearly unlimited.

They are a team of the future, and if Sports Illustrated’s recent proclamation that the Astros will win the 2017 World Series is any indication, that future is very, very bright.

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