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Should the Boston Red Sox Extend Yoenis Cespedes This Offseason?

Yoenis Cespedes has wasted no time making his presence felt as a member of the Boston Red Sox.

The powerful outfielder has just 47 plate appearances under his belt for the Red Sox, and it’s true his .239/.255/.435 line might not look terribly impressive. But Cespedes has already shown a flare for the dramatic, hitting back-to-back, go-ahead eighth-inning homers earlier this week. It’s not a coincidence that the Red Sox are 7-5 since they traded for Cespedes at the deadline.

In Cespedes, the Sox have a legitimate right-handed power hitter who lengthens the middle of their lineup. The trio of David Ortiz, Cespedes and Mike Napoli batting third, fourth and fifth, respectively, is a daunting proposition for opposing pitchers. Similarly, the combination of Cespedes and Jackie Bradley Jr. patrolling the outfield puts opposing baserunners on notice.

In short, Cespedes is the most athletic, toolsiest player the Red Sox have in their organization right now, and while the cost to acquire him was steep, he adds some much-needed offensive upside to a team that’s scored the fifth-fewest runs in the game this year.

For all these reasons and more, the Red Sox should take a long, hard look at extending Cespedes beyond 2015, as they look to fill one of the few long-term gaps their farm system has been unable to plug.

Right-handed power is one of the rarer commodities in the game today. Last year, only seven right-handed hitters hit 30 or more home runs, and only 10 more righties hit between 25-29 homers. Cespedes was one such batter, of course, mashing 26 homers despite the pitcher-friendly confines of O.Co Coliseum in Oakland.

Before the trade for Cespedes, the Red Sox didn’t have a reliable source of right-handed power other than Napoli, who’s suffered through myriad injuries this season. Xander Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks have power potential, but they’ve yet to demonstrate the ability to turn that potential into results at the MLB level.

Even if we extend our parameters of the search for power to left-handers, Boston was fairly unimpressive this season. Including David Ortiz’ 26 bombs, the Sox have just 89 homers on the year, good for the fifth-lowest total in the league.

And despite all the talent in the Red Sox farm system, this is an organization that (with Bogaerts now graduated) lacks a true power hitter in its ranks who figures to see the majors over the next few years.

Mookie Betts and Blake Swihart profile as above-average offensive players, but power isn’t a calling card for either. Deven Marrero’s value lies in his defense, Manny Margot is more of a well-rounded talent than a power threat, and Garin Cecchini’s inability to hit for power has been well documented.

The best power-hitting prospect in Boston’s system is probably Rafael Devers, who, as a 17-year-old in rookie ball, is at least three seasons away from making an impact at Fenway.

Extending Cespedes would give the Sox a power-hitting cornerstone in the middle of their lineup to rely upon beyond 2015, when Napoli is slated to become a free agent and when Ortiz will be over 40. Quite simply, he’s a source of dependable power that Boston hasn’t been able to replicate through its minor league system.

The free-agent market doesn’t figure to be much more fruitful in producing power hitters, either. Fewer marquee players are reaching free agency in today’s game, as the game’s economics dictate that locking up young, productive players is the safer bet. There are exceptions, of course, but free agents today generally consist of role players or players who are well past their 30th birthdays.

For example, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the premier right-handed outfielders in the 2015 free-agent class include Nelson Cruz, Mike Morse, Michael Cuddyer, Josh Willingham and Torii Hunter. These players have their uses, but none can match Cespedes‘ upside or all-around ability to impact a game.

It’s similarly difficult to find talent like Cespedes available on the trading block. The Giancarlo Stanton pipe dream aside, there aren’t many right-handed slugging outfielders available for the Red Sox to try and pry away. The Blue Jays aren’t trading Jose Bautista. The Orioles aren’t trading Adam Jones. The Braves aren’t trading Justin Upton. And, oddly enough, the Angels aren’t trading Mike Trout.

If we engage in pure speculation, there are a few outfield talents, right-handed or otherwise, who could be available. The Rockies could look to move Carlos Gonzalez. The Reds could move Jay Bruce. The Nats could move Jayson Werth or Ryan Zimmerman. And yes, it’s within the realm of possibility that the Marlins move Stanton, too.

But why give up a bevy of prospects for one of these players—if said players are available at all—when all it takes to lock down Cespedes now is some measure of financial flexibility?

Earlier this week, WEEI.com’s Alex Speier took a look at what a Cespedes contract extension might look like, using a variety of recent free-agent contracts and extensions to give us an idea as to what Cespedes might earn.

On the low end of the spectrum, Speier references the four-year, $48 million agreement Nick Swisher reached with the Indians and the four-year, $60 million agreement Curtis Granderson reached with the Mets.

On the high end, Speier mentions the five-year, $75 million contract signed by B.J. Upton, and the five-year, $90 million extension signed by Hunter Pence.

An extension for Cespedes may very well fall closer to the Pence side of the equation than the Granderson side. But it’s not so crazy to think that Cespedes could be worth a deal that pays him between $17 and $18 million a year.

Plus, even if Cespedes doesn’t fully live up to his contract, the Sox can afford to take somewhat of a financial hit. Dustin Pedroia represents their only significant financial investment beyond 2015, and the organization has done well to avoid the shackles that come with giving out seven- or eight-year deals to hitters and five- or six-year deals to pitchers. 

By locking up Cespedes to a four- or five-year deal sometime between now and next April, the Red Sox will assure themselves of having the services of one of the better right-handed power hitters in the game for the next half-decade. Given the dearth of right-handed power in the game right now and Boston’s financial flexibility, it’s a move they should make.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Boston Red Sox Grades at the 2014 3-Quarter Mark

The 2014 season has not gone according to plan for the Boston Red Sox.

Coming off a World Series championship in 2013, many expected the Sox to be right back in the thick of things again this year.

Those dreams came to an end sometime in mid-July, and Boston’s inability to compete culminated in a fire sale at the trading deadline.

Now, with a 52-65 record heading into play on August 12, all that’s left is for Boston to evaluate its current roster with an eye toward 2015 and beyond.

What went wrong in 2014, and which facet of the team is most at fault for the Red Sox’s lackluster 2014 performance?

There’s plenty of blame to go around, but our three-quarter mark grades reveal that many of the Red Sox’s biggest problems start at the plate.

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Boston Red Sox’s 3 Major Post-Deadline Roster Battles

In the post-trading deadline world that the Boston Red Sox now occupy, it’s best to watch games with an eye on 2015 rather than the scoreboard.

The Sox still boast plenty of talented players, to be sure. But there are going to be many rough stretches in the coming weeks as young players are allowed to take their licks and sink or swim at the major league level.

It’s a process we’ve seen all season long in regards to Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr., and we’re going to see even more post-prospects attempt to make adjustments at the MLB level now. In fact, there are nearly as many “open” positions and roster spots for 2015 as there are set ones, and prospects, young players and veterans are already auditioning for next year.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the three most prominent positional battles Red Sox players are fighting right now as we try to ascertain what this team might look like on Opening Day 2015.

 

Third Base: Will Middlebrooks vs. Brock Holt

In 2012, Middlebrooks was a promising young rookie hitting .285/.325/.509, serving as one of the lone bright spots on a team that was floundering until he succumbed to injury. We saw glimpses of a player we thought could be the third baseman and No. 5 hitter of the future.

In 2014, the role of spark plug third baseman has fallen to Holt, who’s perhaps the most incredible story on the Sox this season. The 26-year-old has hit .297/.344/.414 in 362 PA, playing every infield and every outfield position for Boston for at least four games.

Holt will likely still see some time in the outfield moving forward, but with Yoenis Cespedes playing every day and Daniel Nava and Jackie Bradley Jr. also clamoring for playing time, third base is perhaps Holt’s best option moving forward. That puts him in direct competition with Middlebrooks for the rest of 2014.

It may be tempting to suggest pairing Middlebrooks and Holt in a strict platoon, but that won’t fully answer our questions about whether “WMB” can be a significant part of the organization moving forward.

Middlebrooks has hit just .195/.290/.329 in the majors this season, but he’s only received 93 PA thanks in part to injuries. That being said, his .231/.277/.375 line in Triple-A is hardly inspiring.

The memories of Middlebrooks in 2012 are sweet, but we have nearly 500 PA of evidence since then suggesting he’s not an everyday major league player. The next seven weeks could be the last time he gets a shot to prove otherwise in Boston, and it’s only fair to give him as much playing time as possible before casting him aside.

However, it’s not really fair to take away that playing time from Holt, who’s trying to shake the “super sub” label and prove that he deserves to be in a lineup every day.

While his overall line is still quite impressive, Holt has hit just .264/.312/.345 over his last 20 games, suggesting the league has adjusted to his red-hot start. Holt’s also had just four extra-base hits during that span, and he hasn’t stolen a base since Jun 17.

It will be difficult for Farrell and crew to juggle playing time for both WMB and Holt from here on out, and the newly acquired Kelly Johnson will need to see a handful of PA too. But at this point, it’s likely that one of Middlebrooks or Holt will start 2015 as Boston’s regular third baseman, and the Sox should have a better idea of who should sit atop the depth chart by season’s end.

 

Center Field: Jackie Bradley Jr. vs. Mookie Betts

Just Thursday, Betts was sent back down to Triple-A Pawtucket to make room for Johnson on the 25-man roster. That might lead you to think that the battle for center field has been decided, but that may not be the case.

We’re only three weeks away from rosters expanding in September, and when that happens, Betts will be back in Boston. If Bradley isn’t hitting better by then, he could lose substantial time to Betts down the stretch.

You need only watch Bradley play defense for a few innings before you understand why the Sox have been so patient with him this season. He’s a legit 70 or 75 defender on the 20-80 scouting scale, with plus-plus instincts, a great arm and enough speed to track down balls in the gaps.

Red Sox fans are used to good center field defense between the likes of Johnny Damon, Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury, but Bradley is something else altogether.

Yet as good as Bradley’s been in the field, he’s been equally bad at the plate. The 24-year-old is hitting just .216/.288/.296 in 359 PA, striking out in 28.4 percent of his appearances. He did hit .278/.325/.347 in July, but he’s been tough to watch in recent weeks.

Betts, meanwhile, just keeps raking. He’s hitting .321/.408/.496 in 157 Triple-A PA after torching Double-A earlier this season, and he’s held his own in 44 MLB PA too. He has more power, more speed and a significantly better hit tool, and it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which he’d be worse at the plate than Bradley’s been for most of the year.

What we don’t know is how good Betts can be defensively. He’s new to the outfield, and while he has the speed to play center field, he lacks Bradley’s arm and doesn’t have great instincts in the outfield yet.

But while center field is a defense-first position, Bradley’s going to need to become at least a competent hitter if he wants to remain in the lineup. If Bradley keeps playing like this, Betts could leapfrog him on the 2015 depth chart next month.

 

Rotation: Brandon Workman vs. Allen Webster vs. Anthony Ranaudo

For better or for worse, Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly and Rubby De La Rosa have three rotation spots locked up for the remainder of the season. Spots four and five are open to a three-way battle between a trio of young, right-handed back-end starter candidates: Workman, Webster and Ranaudo.

Workman occupies one spot right now, and while he has the most MLB experience, he also has the lowest ceiling of this trio. The right-hander put up a 4.97 ERA in 41.2 innings at the MLB level last season, but his FIP was down at 3.43, and he struck out 26.1 percent of all batters he faced. He made three starts in 2013 as opposed to 17 relief appearances.

2014 hasn’t gone as well for Workman. The 25-year-old has a 4.31 ERA supported by a 4.51 FIP in Boston, and his strikeout rate has fallen to 18.2 percent. Workman’s also walking more batters, inducing fewer ground balls and allowing more fly balls, which is generally a recipe for disaster in Fenway Park.

Webster has the highest upside of the trio, but he is also the least consistent by a long shot. His fastball/changeup combination inspires visions of a No. 3 starter, but he lacks a reliable third pitch and his command can desert him at a moment’s notice.

The 24-year-old has pitched quite well in Triple-A this year, posting a 3.10 ERA in 122 innings and cutting his walk rate from a year ago. He’s missing fewer bats than ever, though, and he’s completely fallen apart at the major league level once again this season. It’s fair to question his composure on the mound.

Ranaudo represents the middle ground between Workman and Webster: He has more raw talent than the former, but he is perhaps more ready to slot into a major league rotation right now than the latter. The LSU product has had a tremendous year in Triple-A, posting a 2.41 ERA in 119.1 innings and drastically cutting his walk rate since a mechanical adjustment in early June.

His stuff is most certainly inferior to Webster’s, and he lacks Workman’s impressive curveball. But Ranaudo is composed on the mound, generally knows where the ball is going now and can get major leaguers out when he keeps his fastball down in the zone.

While this trio is competing for two spots right now, it’s more likely that there will be room for just one in the rotation when the 2015 season begins. If Workman and Webster keep struggling, I’d expect Ranaudo to replace one or the other on a more permanent basis by the end of August, and he could be best positioned to see starts in April of next season.

With additional arms like Henry Owens, Matt Barnes and Edwin Escobar chomping at the bit in Triple-A, one of Webster, Workman or Ranaudo had best separate himself from the pack soon if he wants to profile as a significant part of Boston’s future.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Ranking Boston Red Sox’s Best Minor League Bargaining Chips

Despite their disappointing 2014 season, the Boston Red Sox are one of baseball’s better-positioned franchises when it comes to immediate future success. They have a wealth of talent in the minor leagues, several established stars in the majors who should continue to perform and young studs who are just cutting their teeth at the MLB level.

With just a 43-52 record and a 3.5 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Sox are likely best off letting their youngsters play and trying for more glory in 2015. However, the overall mediocrity of the AL East could tempt the Red Sox to make one last push this season, especially if they go on a winning streak between now and late July.

In such a scenario, the Red Sox must be careful not to leverage their promising future for what would be an unlikely and daunting playoff push. Thankfully, even with prospect attrition factored in, their farm system is deep enough to allow for some wiggle room in trading prospects without gutting future iterations of Red Sox teams. 

With that balancing act in mind, let’s take a look at some minor leaguers Boston could move without jeopardizing its future at the deadline.

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Andrew Miller Hinting at Future as Boston Red Sox Closer

The Boston Red Sox have had a very disappointing 2014 season.

Their offense, projected to be one of baseball’s best before the year began, ranks just 26th in the majors in runs scored with 354. Their rotation, which boasts veteran depth and promising rookie contributors, ranks at just 23rd in baseball, with a collective ERA of 4.11. And the Red Sox’s fielding—so good a year ago—has been noticeably poorer this year, as is evidenced by the 56 errors Boston has committed so far.

Yet amid all of the poor performances that have led to Boston’s 42-51 record, the back end of the bullpen has been phenomenal. All-Star closer Koji Uehara has been a huge part of that, of course, and has further solidified his reputation as one of the best relievers in baseball.

But left-handed setup man Andrew Miller is having just as impressive a year, and it’s Miller who could serve as the Red Sox’s closer of the future.

When you think of where Miller was just a few seasons ago, his transformation is fairly remarkable.

When the Red Sox acquired Miller before the 2011 season, they took him on as a major reclamation project and as a starting pitcher. Miller has always had phenomenal stuff, but a lack of command plagued him throughout his career as a starter.

After posting a 5.54 ERA for the Red Sox in 2011—a year in which he made 12 starts—Miller transitioned into a reliever role, where he’s been ever since.

Miller was good in relief in 2012 and 2013, striking out a ton of batters and posting a solid ERA, but he was still walking around five batters per nine innings. That prevented him from truly reaching the upper echelon of elite relievers in the game despite some eye-popping strikeout numbers (99 in 71 innings).

This year, however, Miller has dropped his walk rate to a career-low 2.78, and the effect that’s had on his stat line is dramatic. Take a look at how Miller stacks up to the average reliever this year:

Those numbers are why FanGraphs has Miller as the 10th-most valuable reliever in the game this year, tied with Pat Neshek, Uehara and Steve Cishek with a 1.3 fWAR and less than half a win behind FanGraphs‘ third-best reliever, Aroldis Chapman. Uehara earned the All-Star nod because he’s the closer, but Miller deserves to be there, too.

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, both Uehara and Miller are free agents after the season. While you have to assume Boston would like to bring both back, one or both could be traded at the deadline this season, and retaining the services of both could prove quite expensive.

Yet as crazy as it sounds, while Miller and Uehara have been equally efficient this season, and while Uehara has been better for longer and on a brighter stage, there’s reason to prefer Miller moving forward.

Perhaps most obviously, Miller is just 29, while Uehara is 39 and generally not able to pitch back-to-back games. Uehara has a history of shoulder trouble, while Miller’s injuries generally haven’t been related to his arm. And while Miller walks more batters than Uehara, he also strikes out more batters and induces more ground balls.

It’s fair to argue that we don’t know that Miller will be able to hold down the ninth inning with regularity, but we also don’t know that he can’t. And while there’s some additional mental pressure that comes with closing out games, it’s not like Miller isn’t used to pitching in high-leverage situations with the game on the line regularly.

Bringing back Uehara and Miller for another run in 2015 is something the Red Sox would be wise to consider, but if they can truly only retain one, it would be perfectly reasonable for them to choose Miller over their standout closer. At best, Uehara probably has one or two seasons remaining, while Miller could pitch for the better part of the next decade.

While major contracts for relievers are rarely a good idea, a three-year contract for Miller could make sense for both sides. Miller hinted to Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal that he’d like to return to Boston, but the two sides haven’t discussed a deal so far.

Perhaps Miller prefers to close and will seek that opportunity elsewhere. He’s certainly earned it with his performance over the past three years.

But the odds are decent that Miller will get that chance in Boston in fairly short order, too. And if Miller is to serve as the Red Sox closer in the future, the Red Sox will be in good hands.

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Is Red Sox’s Brock Holt the Real Deal or a Flash in the Pan?

When Brock Holt does a pushup, he isn’t lifting himself up: He’s pushing the earth down.

Brock Holt doesn’t call the wrong number. You answer the wrong phone.

Brock Holt does not sleep. He waits.

Sure, all these “facts” may originally have been attributed to Chuck Norris. But after an absurd start to the 2014 season, Holt is becoming a legend in his own right, serving as one of the lone bright spots for the Boston Red Sox this year.

Holt’s success, versatility and all-out style of play have endeared him to the fanbase, and there’s no doubting that he’s been a hugely important piece for the Red Sox this year. Yet the suddenness with which he’s burst onto the scene has many asking a reasonable question: Is Brock Holt good enough to be a legitimate major league starter, or is he merely another flash in the plan headed for serious regression?

A look at the numbers suggests that those two outcomes may not be mutually exclusive.

Holt is hitting .323/.363/.446 through 202 plate appearances this year, hitting two homers and 13 doubles and going 5-of-6 in stolen base attempts. Not bad for the player considered to be the throw-in in the Joel Hanrahan/Mark Melancon trade.

However, Holt’s ISO sits at just .124, and his strikeout and walk rates are 19.3 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. Holt’s batted ball numbers, courtesy of FanGraphs, help to explain why he’s been so successful despite his modest power and average strikeout-to-walks ratio.

Those of you familiar with BABIP will note immediately that Holt’s due for some serious regression here. He might have a slightly above-average hit tool, but he’s nowhere near good enough to sustain a BABIP near .400 for the entire year. More of the balls he puts into play should turn into outs as the year progresses, and his average will drop accordingly.

One good sign, though, is that Holt’s line-drive percentage is significantly higher than the league average. That generally means that he is making good contact, and high line-drive rates tend to correlate with higher BABIPs, so the regression may not be quite as steep as we think.

Holt’s ground-ball and fly-ball rates also suggest that he’s playing to his strengths, using his ability to generate hard contact and his decent speed by hitting the ball on a line or into the ground. Holt’s power is a weakness, so the fewer balls he hits in the air, the better.

Overall, these advanced stats paint a picture of a player who’s due to fall back down to Earth a bit, but in a controlled descent rather than a nosedive. Holt isn’t this good, but we shouldn’t expect him to be bad, either.

And while he was never considered much of a prospect in the minors, the one thing he’s always done is get on base. Holt’s career MiLB slash line in 2,070 plate appearances is .307/.372/.410, and that includes his .304/.367/.385 line in 556 career plate appearances in Triple-A.

Holt may not bring much power to the table, but he can hit for average. If he works on improving his walk rate in the major leagues, he should warrant playing time with his bat in Boston moving forward, even if he’s eventually moved out of the leadoff spot.

Yet Holt’s bat might not be his greatest attribute at the major league level. Instead, his calling card will most likely prove to be his versatility.

Holt has played 23 games at third base, seven games at first base and 15 games in the outfield for Boston this year, shifting between all three outfield positions. He has extensive experience as a second baseman and a shortstop in the minor leagues, and while he’s an emergency-only option at short, he seems to be able to play all other six positions adequately.

It’s hard to overstate what type of value that brings to a team at a time when 12 roster spots are usually reserved for pitchers. Not only does Holt’s versatility allow John Farrell to find ways to play him every day, but it should eventually let the Red Sox cut Jonathan Herrera once Will Middlebrooks returns.

And while “intangibles” are often mockedand sometimes rightfully somany in the Red Sox organization are quick to cite Holt’s work ethic, and we’ve heard nothing but praise for his attitude and preparation.

Farrell told Over The Monster’s Joon Lee:

The best way to wrap it up, he’s a good baseball player…I say that in general, but he understands the game, he’s athletic, he’s got speed, I think he’s improve his basestealing and his overall baserunning from the time we got him here. I think more than anything he’s really flourishing in the flexibility we’re providing for him.

So yes, Holt is due for some regression. He’s not likely to hit above .300 at the MLB level. He’s not likely to lead off for a contender for a full season. And he may find himself sitting against tough lefties once the league adjusts to his sudden success.

But Holt is going to be a major league player for a long time, and whether that comes as a starter or as a “super utility” player, it’s a valuable profile nonetheless. He can play every corner position on the diamond. He’s decent in center field or at second base. And his best position may be standing at the plate.

Not much has gone right for the Red Sox in 2014, but Holt gives us something to root for now and in the years to come.

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Grady Sizemore’s Failed Red Sox Comeback Could Be End of the Road

The writing had been on the wall for several weeks.

On Tuesday afternoon, that writing finally spelled the end of Grady Sizemore‘s unlikely comeback story, as the Boston Red Sox designated the 31-year-old outfielder for assignment to make room for prospect Garin Cecchini, as tweeted by Alex Speier of WEEI.com.

That Sizemore’s resurgent tale will not have a happy ending should come as a surprise to no one. He had a slash line of just .224/.285/.422 in 295 plate appearances this season, hitting two homers and stealing no bases. Sizemore’s once Gold Glove-worthy defense in center field regressed noticeably, and the outfielder looked far more comfortable in a corner spot.

In essence, most of the five tools that once made Sizemore one of the more exciting players in the league seem to have abandoned him.

Red Sox GM Ben Cherington spoke to the move, making it clear that Sizemore’s poor play forced the Red Sox’s hand:

Unfortunately, that means that Tuesday’s roster move might not just spell the end of Sizemore’s time with the Red Sox: It may mark his final days as a major leaguer.

In many ways, it’s remarkable that Sizemore was able to keep his hold on a roster spot for as long as he did. Signed to an incentive-laden contract in spring training as a low-risk, high-reward acquisition, Sizemore faced long odds to make the Red Sox roster to begin with. But thanks to an explosive spring in which he hit .310/.356/.429, he looked poised to edge Jackie Bradley Jr. in the battle for everyday center fielder.

When Shane Victorino hit the disabled list right before the season began, Phase 1 of Sizemore’s comeback story was complete.

At first, it looked like Boston’s faith in Sizemore would be rewarded. He hit .308/.357/.513 through his first 11 games and 42 plate appearances, even leading off in several instances.

Since then, however, there’s truly been no reason for optimism. Sizemore was hitting .208/.275/.361 by the end of April. Save for a few hot streaks here and there, he never turned a corner. Once his new defensive limitations became apparent, it really became a matter of “if” and not “when” he’d find himself released.

Victorino’s recurring injuries likely bought Sizemore some time, and it’s possible that the uninspired offensive play of Bradley contributed to Boston’s decision to keep him, too. But in hindsight they likely would’ve been better off cutting him in April, rather than sending Daniel Nava down to the minors. And with the sudden emergence of Brock Holt, Sizemore truly became an unneeded piece on the team.

As Tom Caron of NESN noted on Twitter, John Farrell acknowledged that Sizemore’s DFA had as much to do with others as it had to do with his own performance:

The Red Sox are saying all the right things when it comes to finding Sizemore new opportunities, but it’s hard to see those opportunities truly existing at the major league level.

According to FanGraphs, Sizemore ranks 107th in outfielder fWAR among players with at least 100 plate appearances this season, registering at minus-0.4. While he was better against right-handed hitting than left-handers, his .241/.311/.361 line against righties is hardly inspiring. And now that Sizemore’s speed and defensive prowess have left him, there’s not a ton of reasons for another team to offer him a roster spot.

That’s not to say that Sizemore’s days as a baseball player are over. It’s quite unlikely that another team will claim him from the Red Sox, meaning he could choose to accept an assignment to Pawtucket. He could sign on elsewhere as a minor league free agent, or he could sit out the rest of the year and try to catch on somewhere else next year instead.

The odds aren’t in his favor, but when it comes to baseball, never say never.

But without the skills to help a competitive team or the upside to provide a second-division team with a significant payoff, it’s hard to see Sizemore landing on his feet right away.

Sizemore’s story of perseverance truly deserves our admiration. Before the season, he had played in just 104 games since the start of 2010 and hadn’t played at all in 2012 or 2013. Most people assumed his career was over, and while it didn’t work out in Boston, Sizemore at least demonstrated the ability to stay on the field.

But staying on the field doesn’t matter if you can’t produce, and while Sizemore’s health at least held up long enough for him to truly test his body once more, it’s likely of little consolation to a man whose time in the majors could be done for good.

If nothing else, Sizemore should serve as a reminder to us all to savor the game’s stars while we can, because you never know when the game might take them away. The seasons are long, the wear on the body is real and skills can erode seemingly overnight.

No matter where he ends up, let’s hope Sizemore gets one more chance to write his final chapter.

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4 Players the Boston Red Sox Should Consider Trading at the Deadline

Life clings to the Boston Red Sox like a disease.

At 30-36 and eight games behind the first-place Toronto Blue Jays, they are unlikely to make the playoffs this season. Yet they keep winning just often enough to keep them on the periphery of relevancy at 4.5 games back of a wild-card spot, and this is a team with enough natural talent to make a run.

That puts general manager Ben Cherington and the rest of the front office in a precarious situation, as they must decide within the next few weeks whether the Sox should become buyers or sellers as the trade deadline nears. Either way, standing pat is an unappealing option. This team isn’t good enough to win it all as currently constructed, but the Sox shouldn‘t just sit on their valuable trade chips if they decide to regroup for 2015, either.

On Wednesday, I took a look at three players the Red Sox could look to acquire in a trade to attempt to bolster their outfield for a playoff run. Today, I’ll assume Boston goes in the opposite direction and discuss four players it would be wise to sell.

 

Jonny Gomes, OF

Gomes is a popular figure in Red Sox Nation and is routinely lauded for his intangibles, so trading him may strike a nerve with a portion of the fanbase. But pretty much every move strikes a nerve with some portion of the fanbase, and shedding Gomes would make a ton of sense if the Red Sox decide that they need to rebuild.

Gomes has had his fair share of timely hits for Boston, but he was worth just 1.0 fWAR last season, according to FanGraphs, and has generated just 0.1 fWAR in 2014. He really shouldn’t be allowed to face right-handed pitching (.167/.244/.292 in 2014) and he’s a free agent after the season, meaning Boston loses no long-term value by dealing him.

The best argument to be made against dealing Gomes is that the return he’d bring is so marginal, there’s no real point to shipping him off if it will hurt your clubhouse. But I’d argue that even if Boston just receives cash considerations, a relief-pitcher reclamation project or a D-level prospect, trading Gomes is a good idea because it will open up at-bats for other, more important long-term players.

If the Sox are out of it, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Daniel Nava should play pretty much every day so that the Red Sox can better assess what to expect from those two moving forward. Brock Holt also deserves regular playing time, and the Sox might even want to let top prospect Mookie Betts get his feet wet by season’s end.

It’s easier to find playing time for these guys if Gomes is off the roster.

 

A.J. Pierzynski, C

Whereas I expect the notion of trading Gomes to be unpopular, I have a feeling no one would take issue with dealing Pierzynski, who’s yet to endear himself to any fanbase in the country. Despite his quirks and reputation, Pierzynski is having a good season at the plate, hitting .279/.308/.400 with four homers and 27 RBI.

We all know about Pierzynski’s defensive limitations, but there’s never enough catching to go around the majors, and he’d be quite likely to catch the eye of a contender who needs help behind the plate. Pierzynski was always designed to be a stopgap option for the Red Sox anyway, and I don’t expect them to re-sign him for 2015 or beyond.

As is the case with Gomes, the return the Red Sox would receive for Pierzynski would likely be quite modest. I can see it being a touch better than what they’d get for the outfielder, but we’re still talking about a low-level prospect or someone who’s flunked their first few tests in the majors. Thirty-seven-year-old catchers just don’t have a ton of value.

But like with Gomes, Pierzynski leaving would open up playing time for other players, and in this case I’m referring specifically to Christian Vazquez. A defensive whiz who’s holding his own in Triple-A, getting Vazquez 200-plus MLB plate appearances this season would be a great idea, as the Sox could opt to use Vazquez as their primary backup next season if they like what they see.

On that note, it would also make sense for Boston to trade David Ross instead of Pierzynski, but I’m not sure who would want the 37-year-old Ross at this point.

 

Jake Peavy, SP

A season ago, the Red Sox made the biggest move of any team at the trading deadline by trading Jose Iglesias and two lower-level prospects for Peavy in a three-team deal involving the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers, bolstering their rotation for a playoff run. As we know now, it was a trade that paid huge dividends, as Peavy helped to further stabilize a pitching staff that would ultimately lead the Sox to a championship.

If Boston decides it can’t recover in 2014, it would make sense to let Peavy be someone else’s big prize at the deadline this year. Peavy is a free agent after the season, and the Red Sox have a glut of pitching talent in the high minors. A reunion appears unlikely, so Boston would be smart to get some value for Peavy while it still can.

Make no mistake about it—the package the Sox would receive for Peavy this time around wouldn’t come close to matching the talent they gave up a year ago. Peavy now only has three months of control left on his deal, and he’s been serviceable but not outstanding this season. I’d expect a C-level prospect, a reliever or a utility player as a fair return.

But if Peavy’s absence means that Brandon Workman, Rubby De La Rosa or even Henry Owens is afforded more MLB time this season, that’s for the best. You can never have too much pitching, but the Sox could bolster their ranks with a cheaper alternative next season or could simply hand the reins to one of their many young arms.

Getting what they can for Peavy now makes all the sense in the world if the Sox decide to throw in the towel.

 

Koji Uehara, RP

I know, I know, this would be an incredibly painful deal for Red Sox nation. Uehara has been historically good since joining the Sox last season, throwing 102 innings, allowing a 0.97 ERA and posting a K/BB ratio of more than 10-to-1 during that time. He’s the best relief pitcher in the AL, and he’s a fan favorite.

But even mediocre closers tend to fetch handsome rewards on the trade market, and there’s a chance that someone could cough up an excellent prospect even for just a half-season of Uehara. I’m all for trying to extend him for next season, but if that doesn’t happen, trading him is a great way to recoup excess value for Cherington‘s shrewdest acquisition to date.

For all his talent, Uehara is a 39-year-old free agent-to-be with a history of shoulder issues. The Red Sox should absolutely look to bring him back to close in 2015, even if he spends July, August and September with another organization, but they’d be silly to hold on to him if they’re out of the race.

Trading away Uehara would be a painful reminder of how badly this season has gone awry. But if the Sox do indeed decide to sell, though, letting him throw another 30-plus innings in Boston is a waste of an insanely valuable asset.

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Stock Up, Stock Down for Boston Red Sox’s Top 10 Prospects After Week 8

We’re nearly two full months into the 2014 season and we’ve seen enough from many of the Boston Red Sox‘s top prospects to judge their developmental progress so far this year.

Many of their starting pitching prospects have made 10-plus starts. Many of their hitters are nearing 200 plate appearances. We’re even seeing some players promoted on the backs of fast starts and organizational need. The sample sizes may be too small to hold predictive value, but they’re no longer too small to tell us part of a story in many cases.

Thanks to injury and ineffectiveness at the major league level, many of Boston’s prospects in the upper minors are poised to make an impact in 2014. And with Brandon Workman losing his prospect eligibility this week, there’s a new spot on this list for a high-upside player in the low minors, too. That means there’s plenty to discuss here after Week 8 of the season.

 

Players who have exceeded 130 PA or 50 innings pitched in the majors are not eligible for these rankings. All stats as of May 25, 2014.

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Xander Bogaerts Is Still the Boston Red Sox’s Shortstop of the Future

Year one of the Xander Bogaerts era at shortstop is not going as planned.

The Boston Red Sox are just 20-26, five games out of first place in the AL East and in the midst of a seven-game losing streak. Many of their young players are struggling, many of their rotation staples have crashed and burned, and most of their offseason acquisitions have been busts. The team’s defense and running game—core strengths of the 2013 championship club—have been hard to watch this year.

With that in mind, it’s not hard to see why the Red Sox elected to re-sign Stephen Drew for the rest of the 2014 season this past week. He improves the team for 2014 without mortgaging its future. And while it means that Bogaerts’ tenure at shortstop is coming to a temporary end, it doesn’t have to and shouldn’t mean his days at the position are permanently behind him.

Despite some defensive miscues of his own, Bogaerts has been one of the lone bright spots for the 2014 Red Sox. The 21-year-old is hitting .283/.381/.417 through his first 180 plate appearances. His defense at short has been uninspiring at times, but he’s been far from a train wreck there, either, and he’s shown the ability to make adjustments.

We’re spoiled by the age of Mike Trout, but you can’t ask for much more from a rookie shortstop.

There’s some irony in the fact that it’s Bogaerts—one of the team’s few solid performers—who’s felt the brunt of the Red Sox’s desperate attempts to stop the bleeding. But by bringing Drew back into the fold earlier this week, Boston is simply taking a measured approach to stabilizing a team that has more talent than its sub-.500 record would indicate.

That’s true even if this approach dictates that Bogaerts move 50 feet to his right on defense once more, manning the hot corner for the majority of Boston’s games from here on out.

It’s a decision that disappointed many fans and Bogaerts himself.

“My heart is always at shortstop,” Bogaerts told Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald on Wednesday. “And I was just feeling so good over there. But they made the decision that they have to make.”

Such a reaction from the young Aruban is natural.

But those who believe Bogaerts’ days at shortstop are forever in the past are missing the point of the Drew signing. The Red Sox did not acquire Drew because they don’t think Bogaerts can play shortstop adequately—they acquired Drew because he serves as a relatively cheap option who can improve the team now. And as the first 46 games of the season have shown us, this is very much a team that needs improving.

In reality, the Drew signing is less about Bogaerts than it is about Will Middlebrooks, who’s once again failed to solidify himself as an everyday player on a first-division team. After Middlebrooks hit just .197/.305/.324 through 82 plate appearances between two disabled-list stints, the Red Sox were really left with no choice but to try to make an upgrade with more oomph than Brock Holt.

Many Red Sox fans wanted Garin Cecchini to be summoned to the majors, but his defense clearly isn’t ready for the big leagues, and his power production has been disappointing thus far. Boston’s new favorite prospect, Mookie Betts, lacks the arm strength to play third base and has no professional experience there. And aside from Ryan Roberts, there aren’t any other internal options.

What the Drew signing reflects is that there truly weren’t many external options for a third base upgrade, either. It’s too early for most teams to be in sell mode, but the teams that should already be looking toward 2015 generally lack appealing options at the hot corner. Plus, it makes little sense to cash in trade chips for a third base option when an above-average everyday player such as Drew can be had for just $10 million.

This was the easiest, cheapest and fastest way for the Red Sox to add some life to their team, as Drew will instantly improve their offense and their performance against right-handed pitching: two areas of the club in dire need of improvement.

And let’s put to bed the notion that Drew should play third base so that Bogaerts has shortstop all to himself. You don’t acquire one of the league’s better defenders at a premier position and move him away from his strengths just to avoid hurting the feelings of a prospect.

Plus, even amid all this fuss, there’s a good possibility that Bogaerts sees some more time at shortstop this year. Both Middlebrooks and Drew have dramatic platoon splits, which means we could see WMB at the hot corner and Bogaerts at shortstop against lefties once Middlebrooks recovers.

So Boston’s plan at short is fairly set in stone for 2014, but what about for the future? Many assume or hope that Bogaerts’ move to third base will be permanent, but that doesn’t need to be the case.

It may be unconventional to move Bogaerts from third base to shortstop once again, but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea. Bogaerts has nearly 2,000 professional innings at shortstop, and he’s not going to forget how to play the position just because he’s being asked to make 80 starts at the hot corner this year.

He’s not a finished product at short, but he’s shown us enough this season to make me believe he can be a shortstop for several years moving forward.

The Baltimore Orioles will face a similar scenario with Manny Machado this offseason, as J.J. Hardy is an impending free agent. Other than the argument that defensive shifting leads to offensive struggles—an argument based far more in narrative than anything quantifiable—there’s little reason not to move Bogaerts and Machado to their natural homes.

It’s not a player-development path we’re accustomed to seeing, but Bogaerts and Machado are not normal talents.

Finally, if you project out the Red Sox’s long-term roster, playing Bogaerts at shortstop is really the only way to get all of the team’s premium talent on the field at once. A 2015 lineup with Bogaerts at short, Cecchini at third, Betts in left field and Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field is quite plausible, and that’s a quartet that could post a collective OBP of .360 or better.

If you move Bogaerts to third base long term, the picture becomes much more muddled. Cecchini must then move to first base, which is a horrible profile for him, or to left field. If Cecchini moves to left, where do you play Betts? And if you commit to Betts and put him in center, does that mean you’ve already given up on the defensive talents of Bradley?

In essence, keeping Bogaerts at shortstop only blocks Deven Marrero—a decent prospect, but not someone who projects as a first-division starter. Moving Bogaerts to third for 2015 and beyond will block one of Cecchini, Betts or Bradley. One would assume that’s not something Boston wants to do.

Red Sox fans have been clamoring for a true heir apparent to Nomar Garciaparra for a decade now, so it’s understandable to feel some frustration at the thought of Bogaerts being denied the chance to take those reins. But in re-signing Drew for 2014, the Red Sox have significantly improved their team on the field without at all mortgaging their future.

Any time an organization can accomplish both of those goals at once, it must do so.

We may have seen the end of Bogaerts as an everyday shortstop for now, but aside from arguments based in tradition, there’s no reason to think we can’t see him there again in 2015 and beyond.

Xander Bogaerts wants to be a shortstop, and the Red Sox don’t have to deny him that wish on a permanent basis just yet.

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