Dec. 22, 2010
Twins ‘Cold’ During ‘Hot’ Season
by Andy Vanfossan
With 2010 coming to an end, now is a good time to look at the positives and negatives for the last month and a half of the free agent season.
Positives:
1) The first positive has nothing to do with any trade or free agent signing. It has to do with the health of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. The past two seasons, the Twins have been relatively quiet in the first couple weeks of the free agent signing period. The main “signings” had to do with getting two all-stars back and healthy for the upcoming year. This year is no exception. Morneau is expected to be on the field at spring training (after missing the last part of the 2010 season with post-concussion syndrome) along with his friend and all-star Joe Mauer (minor knee surgery). Having solid 3-4 hitters like this will rival the newly formed 3-4 hitters in Chicago (Dunn and Konerko) and in Detroit (Cabrera and Martinez).
2) Updating the speed. Tsuyoshi Nishioka should bring some speed and stability to the Twins’ infield in 2011. Coming off a career year in Japan, Nishioka is expected to fill in for the departed Orlando Hudson (Padres two-year contract) and possibly slide over to shortstop for JJ Hardy (trade with Balitmore). This does help the speed factor with Alexi Casilla getting another shot for full time middle infield duty. With the big hitters in Mauer, Morneau, Young, Cuddyer and Kubel, these two guys should score runs in bunches.
3) Standing pat. Sometimes the best moves are the moves that aren’t made. There had been talk of the Twins looking to sign Brandon Webb early in the signing period, but those rumors never came to be. Webb would be a pitcher the Twins could definitely use. When he’s healthy, he has a Cy Young award to his credit and is a ground ball pitcher which plays right into the dimensions of Target Field. Unfortunately, he’s coming off a shoulder injury and still isn’t 100%. With the starting rotation at least six deep (depending on the resigning of Carl Pavano and the possibly trade of Kevin Slowey), and the promotion of Kyle Gibson, the Twins are in a good situation with regards to their starting pitching.
Negatives
1) Bullpen help. I agree that giving Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier multi-year deals wasn’t in the Twins’ best interest, both in terms of longevity and finance (Crain 3 yrs-$13 million and Guerrier 4 years-$12 million), but they also have let Brian Fuentes and Jon Rauch test the free agent market. With the no strikeout/pitch to contact pitchers the Twins have from 2-5, the bullpen gets work almost nightly. Putting younger guys in like Anthony Slama, Alex Burnett, Jeff Manship and Pat Neshek to bridge the gap to Nathan or Capps is a tall order, especially for pitchers with little experience. The Twins have prided themselves on building from within and this off-season shows this same philosophy will be tested again.
2) Jim Thome. The Twins are optimistic that Jim Thome will return for a second season in Minnesota. As he was a January signing last year, history is showing this may be the case again. However, as the Twins wait for Thome’s decision, other solid DH type hitters are leaving the market. Hideki Matsui signed with the Oakland A’s (although the Twins were on his ‘no trade’ list) and Adam Dunn signed a long term deal with the White Sox. Both of these hitters are mostly DH players only, but so is Thome. Waiting on Thome potentially will leave the Twins with a bench of role players and no real game changers like Thome was last year.
3) Top of the rotation guy. Carl Pavano is the last big name pitcher on the market. But for all Pavano has done the past year and a half (innings pitched and wins), he still doesn’t strike a lot of people out. The Twins’ pitching philosophy is pitch to contact and limit walks. Pavano is perfect from this standpoint but come post season, you need the strikeout pitcher and Pavano isn’t that type of pitcher anymore. The Twins have a lot of Pavano clones in Baker, Duensing, Blackburn and Slowey, but nothing like Liriano, which is what the Twins desperately need, especially come post season.
4) Signing of Tsuyoshi Nishioka. As mentioned above, Gardy wanted more speed in the line-up. This seems to be an upgrade over the middle infield from 2010. However, for every Ichiro, Hideo Nomo and Hideki Matsui that has/had prospered in the major leagues, you have Hideki Okijama (one good season with the Red Sox), Kenshin Kawakami (Atlanta Braves 1-10 5.15 ERA), and Kaz Matsui (Astros, Rockies, Mets). Assuming the first year is a learning process for Nishioka, the Twins will still be in need of middle infield help. The non-tenure of Hudson and the trade of Hardy definitely puts all the middle infield eggs in one basket.
The promising news for Twins fans is that Smith was aggressive last year in January and towards the beginning of spring training with the signing of Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome. Lightning will need to strike twice to keep the Twins atop the AL Central again in 2011.
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