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MLB Playoff Picture 2016: Predicting Wild-Card Races and Potential Bracket

When MLB added a second wild-card spot for each league in 2012, this is exactly what it wanted.

Less than two weeks remain before the 2016 regular season ends, but all four bids in the American League and National League Wild Card Games are still up for grabs. While three teams fight furiously for a shot at the NL play-in game, multiple teams still lurk in the AL picture.

If any ties occur, clubs might need to break the stalemate with an elimination game before the postseason elimination game. A three-team AL tie would especially prove problematic, as the Wild Card Game is scheduled for Oct. 4—two days after the season ends.

All six division leaders will likely clinch with time to spare, so let’s focus on the chaotic wild-card races. Playoff probabilities are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus

   

American League

Let’s make this easier and assume the Boston Red Sox wrap up the AL East. While there’s enough time to squander a five-game lead, they boast baseball’s best offense and an AL-best plus-186 run differential.

That leaves the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles vying for wild-card bids, both of which they control. Each club faces a tough closing schedule, which includes a three-game series against each other next week.

Although buoyed by their star sluggers, the Blue Jays’ starting rotation leads the AL in ERA. Despite a strong second half from Kevin Gausman, the Orioles would rank last if not for the putrid Minnesota Twins.

Solid starting staff aside, the Blue Jays would love to get Jose Bautista going. The veteran slugger is hitting .230/.358/.437 during an injury-infested season, but he has reached base in 29 straight games. He didn’t loiter there long on Wednesday, hitting a game-tying home run in the ninth against the Seattle Mariners, who won in extra innings.

Seattle looked down for the count before rattling off eight consecutive wins earlier this month. Dropping two of three to the Houston Astros and Blue Jays greatly derailed its playoff chances. Now the Astros and Detroit Tigers represent bigger threats.

Detroit has the most favorable schedule of the bunch, especially if the Cleveland Indians take it easy with the AL Central well in hand. The Tigers have also, however, played the last two games without Ian Kinsler (concussion) and Victor Martinez (knee). 

The catalyst to Detroit’s offense, Kinsler has hit 26 homers with an .804 OPS and 106 runs scored. He commented on his concussion to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.

“It’s something where you feel a little pressure maybe,” he said. “It’s just not normal. You don’t feel normal.” 

Even while facing the Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves, the top-heavy Tigers need all hands on deck to mount a comeback. Also hurting their cause, rookie Michael Fulmer has regressed from an unsustainable hot start, notching a 4.00 second-half ERA. 

The Astros are situated to poach the second spot. They play seven of their final 10 games against the Los Angeles Angels, whom they have defeated 11 of 12 times this season. Although they probably won’t go much further without Dallas Keuchel, look for them to escape the scrum and face Toronto in the Wild Card Game.

   

National League

At a quick glance, the New York Mets appear in the worst shape among the trio competing to survive the wild-card frenzy. Their plus-20 run differential unfitting of an 80-72 team trails the San Francisco Giants (+59) and St. Louis Cardinals (+60) considerably. Not having David Wright, Neil Walker, Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom also hurts.

Fortunately for last year’s NL champs, their schedule since Aug. 25 has consisted of all but six games—which they split against the NL East-leading Washington Nationals—against anyone with a winning record. They have capitalized, since righting a sinking ship with a 16-7 record.

Alas, they hit a roadblock, getting swept by the Atlanta Braves. They have 10 games to heat up against the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins, and Marlins ace Jose Fernandez is not scheduled to start any of their three matchups.

New York’s comeback received a helping hand from the Giants’ collapse. Entering the All-Star break at an MLB-best 57-33, San Francisco has since gone 23-39.

The Giants are still dangerous if they can make the Wild Card Game or even force a three-team tie. Their bullpen has pitched well during their second-half collapse, but it receives the blame as a result of stumbling in key spots. While those 12 blown saves have sparked the free-fall, a Giants offense gone terribly sour has scored the fewest runs since the All-Star break. 

San Francisco can’t point to any major injuries like the Mets and Cardinals—who are currently without Lance Lynn and Matt Holliday and missed Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz and Michael Wacha for chunks of the season. The Giants are remarkably healthy, but they still stink.

“The first-half Giants were the [Chicago] Cubs, the second-half Giants are the Twins, and they’re essentially the exact same team,” Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan wrote. “This does not make any sense.”

After getting demolished by the Colorado Rockies, the Cardinals must hope the Cubs don’t care about ousting their division foes. With the division and home-field advantage firmly wrapped up, they have nothing on the line but pride.

As the rest of the rotation struggles, St. Louis needs two big outings from Alex Reyes. The highly touted rookie tossed seven shutout frames in Sunday’s enormous win over San Francisco. That was his third career start.

In the event of a three-team tie, the Cardinals would currently host the Mets—determined by inner-division records since they split their head-to-head encounters—for the first spot. The loser would then face San Francisco for the second ticket into the NL Wild Card Game.

Even though they’re baseball’s best team on the road, this scenario bodes well for the Cardinals. Yet look for the Mets to exploit a Phillies-heavy schedule to outright claim one spot, while the Giants save the season with strong showings against the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Explaining, Predicting Outcomes of MLB’s Wackiest 2016 Tiebreaker Scenarios

MLB‘s 162-game regular season might not prove enough to set the playoff picture.

In order to manufacture more drama, MLB instituted a second wild-card spot and one-game matchup for entry into the division series. The initiative has paid dividends this season, when 10 teams remain five or fewer games from one of those spots.

As cruel as it seems to bookend sports’ longest season with an elimination playoff game, things could delve into further chaos if the season ends in any ties. Some teams may have to play a winner-take-all matchup for a chance at another winner-take-all game.

The close wild-card pictures create some dizzying possibilities. With a tight American League East battle also containing wild-card implications, season stalemates would produce utter madness.

Sit down. Take a deep breath. Actually, maybe grab a drink first. Some of these confusing scenarios should require a prerequisite course. With help from MLB.com, let’s explain some possible tiebreakers.

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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Top 10 Pickups for Week 25

It’s probably too late to add two of fantasy baseball’s most intriguing waiver-wire candidates.

Although it feels like years ago, Taijuan Walker caused giddy drafters to pat themselves on the back after posting a 1.44 ERA, 25 strikeouts and three walks in April. As everyone rejoiced the Seattle Mariners starter’s breakout, his season unraveled.

Walker decayed into free-agent fodder—until last Tuesday, when he struck out 11 batters during a three-hit, complete-game shutout. The dominant display against the Los Angeles Angels, who 10 days earlier tagged him for six runs before he could escape the first inning, put the 24-year-old righty back on the map.

Meanwhile, 35-year-old outfielder Curtis Granderson also faded into obscurity by hitting .221 on the heels of last year’s resurgent campaign. For all of his struggles, the veteran outfielder has compiled 28 homers after going deep twice in extra innings on Saturday.

Despite batting a moribund .193 after the All-Star break, he also has 13 homers. For those critical of his 51 RBI—part anomaly and part a byproduct of leading off most of the season—the New York Mets are now batting him cleanup behind Yoenis Cespedes.

Walker and Granderson both would have made the cut if their Yahoo Sports ownership rates hadn’t climbed above 50 percent. Look their way if still on the waiver wire, but everyone else can focus on these players instead.

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September Call-Ups Already Proving They Can Make 2016 Postseason Impact

Usually a trial run for rookies, MLB‘s September roster expansions have instead become a portal for second chances.

Prominent prospects are now typically promoted before the final month, especially if they can help a contender. In years past, Alex Bregman, Gary Sanchez and Jameson Taillon might have debuted as September call-ups.

Now it looks like they should have arrived sooner.

Outside of Yoan Moncada, who has quickly proven too raw for a grand stage, no star youngster has began his MLB career this month. In most cases, the most notable call-ups are working their way back into good graces after an earlier demotion.

Regardless of their journey to the majors, the following players can impact the playoff picture and earn a postseason roster spot.

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Each 2016 MLB Playoff Contender’s Most Undervalued Impact Player

The divide between MLB contenders and pretenders is smaller than ever, increasing the impact of each contributor on the roster.

As many as 19 teams are in the postseason running with less than a month remaining. Most of them can thank the new wild-card format, as no division outside the American League East hosts an intense neck-and-neck race.

With so many teams ravaged by injuries, clubs are learning the importance of depth. No one star can carry a team to the World Series. Just ask the Los Angeles Angels.

These guys aren’t MVP or Cy Young Award candidates, but they have blossomed into indispensable players vital to September and October success. Let’s take a look at each team’s most unheralded performer over the first five months of 2016.

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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Top 10 Pickups for Week 23

It’s time to give fantasy baseball managers their annual reminder: Baseball doesn’t end once football begins.

The college season commenced on Saturday, and the NFL will follow this week. Meanwhile, MLB is five months and roughly 130-135 games into its campaign. It takes resilience to avoid complacency in favor of football, which offers a fresh slate of unlimited possibilities.

For rotisserie baseball players, every stolen base and strikeout could present the difference between first and second place. Some head-to-head participants, meanwhile, have a week remaining before the playoffs start.

Football drafts can wait a moment, as it’s now time to scour the baseball waiver wire for impact free agents, all available in over half of Yahoo Sports leagues.  

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Final Predictions for the 2016 MLB Waiver Trade Deadline

There’s no official deadline for MLB teams to strike a trade through revocable waivers, but playoff contenders have until Wednesday to make a deal that can factor into the postseason.

Any player acquired after Aug. 31 is not eligible for his new club’s playoff roster, so a postseason hopeful must hurry if it foresees an acquisition producing in October. It’s not a far-fetched scenario, as Chase Utley and Addison Reed played postseason baseball for teams that traded for them last August.

If a player clears waivers, his team can bargain a deal with any other organization. If a franchise places a claim, that team holds exclusive negotiating rights. The player’s team can also pull the waived player back or let him go outright.

So far, little of note has happened past the non-waiver deadline. The Miami Marlins acquired Jeff Francoeur, the Washington Nationals landed Marc Rzepczynski and the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers swapped veteran catchers Carlos Ruiz and A.J. Ellis.

None of these deals reshaped the playoff picture. It’s unlikely any blockbuster moves go down, but some notable names are floating around as possible trade candidates.

Here are some predictions for what will transpire before Wednesday’s cutoff for postseason eligibility.

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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Top 10 Pickups for Week 22

Life would be much easier if fantasy baseball leagues followed MLB rules.

When the calendar flips to September, the league’s roster limit magically increases from 25 to 40. The added flexibility makes life much easier for managers, especially when delegating a bullpen and National League bench.

Unfortunately, this fake game of ours doesn’t offer the same luxury. The roster spots stay stagnant during the season’s final month, which often forces fantasy managers into tough decisions. As nice as it would be to stash that top prospect or slumping regular, nobody can waste space with only five weeks remaining.

Meanwhile, useful players are shouting for attention on the waiver wire. All available in over 50 percent of Yahoo Sports leagues, these guys are rolling at the right time. Capitalize on their recent successes while they last.

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Top 2016 MLB Pennant Race X-Factors with 1 Month to Go

For MLB teams in the thick of a pennant race, it’s better to be healthy than good.

Several squads competing for a postseason bid have suffered debilitating injuries over the season. Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Chris Tillman, Matt Holliday, Aledmys Diaz, Michael Wacha, Wade Davis and practically the entire Los Angeles Dodgers rotation are watching a playoff race unfold on the disabled list. Others (Jose Bautista) are just coming back from the shelf.

Whoever heals the most in September could determine who sneaks into the playoffs. Although four division leaders have established a comfortable lead, the wild card lives up to its moniker in both leagues. Thirteen teams are within five games of participating in a winner-take-all showdown.

That means more than half the league harbors hope with August winding down. Along with the health of household names, some unexpected players have emerged as make-or-break contributors.

Let’s take a look at some of the biggest X-factors looming over the late-season playoff hunt.

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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Top 10 Pickups for Week 21

Not every fantasy baseball pickup needs to be flashy. When hunkering down for a title run, owners just need players who get the job done.

Most of this week’s waiver-wire recommendations meet that mold. They’re not all buzzy adds, but they’re delivering to little fanfare. If they keep it up, these unheralded gems can ignite a championship push.

Even the promoted newcomers consist of a 32-year-old baseball veteran and a refined 22-year-old prospect poised to spend his career under the shadow of his position’s superstar peers. 

And fair warning to Arizona Diamondbacks fans: This list will conjure memories of that horrendous Shelby Miller trade. Sorry in advance.

Here’s the latest batch of players to snatch off the waiver wire, where they remain in at least half of Yahoo Sports leagues. 

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