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As one of the most valuable free agents on the market this winter, it’s no surprise that 31-year-old Russell Martin is already attracting attention from teams. 

The nine-year veteran is coming off his best offensive season since 2007, posting a .290/.402/.430 slash line with 31 extra-base hits for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He also remains one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, only adding to his immense value. 

According to Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago, Martin’s list of potential suitors has grown:

The Cubs have wasted little time in their pursuit of becoming a contending team in 2015. After hiring veteran manager Joe Maddon on Monday, the team rolled out the red carpet in a meeting with free agent catcher Russell Martin on Thursday, according to an MLB source.‬

Martin is considered one of the top catchers in the game and will have further serious conversations with four teams, including the Cubs, according to industry sources. The Pirates, Martin’s most recent club, and the Dodgers are known to be two of the other teams that Martin and his agent will visit with.

Among catchers with at least 450 plate appearances in 2014, Martin ranked third with 5.3 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs. Only Milwaukee’s Jonathan Lucroy (6.3) and San Francisco’s Buster Posey (5.7) were better. 

Using FanGraphs‘ metrics, Martin was the National League’s most valuable defensive catcher last year and only trailed Kansas City’s Salvador Perez and Detroit’s Alex Avila in all of MLB. He was one of the biggest reasons for Pittsburgh’s turnaround and why the Pirates were in the playoffs each of the last two years.

In other words, as D.J. Short of Hardball Talk wrote back in September, Martin is one of the most underrated assets in Major League Baseball:

Gabe Kapler of Fox Sports wrote about how Martin acts as a coach on the field when he’s working with a pitching staff:

The lack of a quick acronym should not lead people to overlook the impact they have on their teammates. Is it perhaps reasonable to think that Martin raises the performance of a pitcher by one-fifth of a win over the course of a season? If he works with 15 pitchers, he’s added three wins to his club. Whoa, that’s a badass bump.

While there isn’t much science in Kapler’s reasoning, it’s not hard to see that Martin is unique among MLB catchers.

The Pirates will want to retain Martin as their starting catcher, though it won’t be easy. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported in October that he turned down a contract extension in the middle of the season. There is no statement as to the details of the offer. Heyman also speculated that, as a free agent, “Martin could easily request a big five-year deal considering his stellar season.”

The most important thing for a catcher is to be productive behind the plate, and anything with the bat is a bonus. 

Martin held up his end of the bargain, and then some, in two years with Pirates. Now, he’s poised to get the first big payday of his career. 

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter. 

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 Major League Baseball’s annual tradition of honoring the best offensive players at each position has come again, and today the winners of the 2014 Silver Slugger Awards were announced. 

Unlike the other major position player awards that take into account defensive performance, the Silver Slugger Awards are all about what happens in the batter’s box and on the bases. Everything from batting average and home runs to stolen bases counts for this list. 

Here are the list of players honored for their efforts in 2014:

This was a year of firsts for many of the players honored.

Each league boasted four first-time Silver Slugger winners. Michael Brantley, Yan Gomes, Jose Altuve and Jose Abreu all entered the club in the American League. According to MLB.com’s Andrew Simon, Abreu and Alexei Ramirez are the first Cuban teammates to win Silver Sluggers in the same season.

Neil Walker, Anthony Rendon, Giancarlo Stanton and Madison Bumgarner picked up their first Silver Sluggers in the National League.

For Bumgarner, it’s yet another accolade to add to his already loaded trophy cabinet. He’ll have to make some more room after collecting the National League Championship Series and World Series MVP Awards within the last month.

Bumgarner and teammate Buster Posey make up the first Silver Slugger-winning battery in over a decade, per Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area:

The big thing that jumps out in a list like this is how much the voters—which are comprised of coaches and managers around the league—still favor the three Triple Crown stats (average, home runs, RBI). And there’s certainly nothing wrong with that. 

We are in an age where there are so many numbers to evaluate offensive performance that strictly using those three might seem ancient. At the same time, just looking at the winners, it’s hard to argue with the lineup you could build in either league. 

For instance, Mike Trout was the most valuable offensive player by any metric this season. FanGraphs had the Los Angeles Angels superstar as the best hitter in baseball this season. He did it by hitting 36 homers, stealing 16 bases and posting a .287/.377/.561 slash line.

The combination of power, speed and ability to get on base makes Trout a nightmare for opponents. There’s also the irony, as Gregg Doyel of CBSSports.com wrote in mid-September, of the young star having the worst statistical year of his career in most measurements yet still being regarded as a lock for Most Valuable Player:

Trout is having a career year for home runs (32) and RBI (103), but his .285 batting average is nearly 30 points below his career mark entering the season (.314) and his OPS (.922) is well below his 2012-13 production (.976)…

Trout isn’t the player he was in either of the last two seasons, but he’s the MVP. By a landslide. Because when you get right to it, a down year by his standards is still better than the seasons—a career year for some, down for most others—put up by everyone else.

Yet when you put the things that Trout has been able to do in a historical context, as Baseball Reference did on Twitter, it’s amazing how great he can be even in a year that everyone acknowledged was a disappointment by his standards:

J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group also saluted Trout, who became the second player in history to win three Silver Sluggers in his first three full seasons:

Speaking of great years that deserved to be acknowledged, is there a hitter who is more fun to watch than Stanton? Miami has seemingly done everything to alienate its fanbase over the years, but a slugger hitting balls that make the Incredible Hulk jealous is a wonder to behold. 

The Marlins slugger, who will only be 25 next season, has been the National League’s most prolific power hitter since 2011. His 132 homers over the last four years lead the league, despite playing in 534 out of a possible 648 games due to injuries. 

That’s been the unfortunate story of Stanton’s young career. He was having an MVP-caliber season in 2014 with 37 homers and a .288/.395/.555 slash line before his season ended after getting hit by a pitch in the face. 

Marlins Park isn’t an easy place to hit homers, which caused Simon to be even more amazed at Stanton’s prodigious power:

In this era when power numbers in baseball are universally down, Stanton is a rare hitter who is hitting for average, getting on base and capable of hitting 40 or more homers. He just needs to stay healthy and the accolades will keep coming. 

It’s interesting to see how managers and coaches evaluate the Silver Slugger Awards in this age of baseball. It’s easy to look at some cases and check off certain names, but with fewer home runs and lower averages, there are so many players worthy of the award who didn’t crack the list this year. 

As they have gotten used to saying in Chicago, wait until next year. 

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter. 

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Major League Baseball’s award season has begun. On Tuesday, the 2014 Gold Glove winners were announced for the American League and National League.    

Rawlings Sports announced the finalists on Oct. 23 with three candidates each at nine positions. From that pool of 27 players, here is how the voting turned out:

Defense has taken on a more pertinent role in the way baseball is watched and evaluated. Look at what the Kansas City Royals were able to do this season and in the playoffs because of their ability to cover ground and catch the ball. 

The Royals, who were one game away from winning the World Series, were rewarded for their efforts with three Gold Gloves. Left-fielder Alex Gordon (fourth win), first baseman Eric Hosmer (second) and catcher Salvador Perez (second) all took home the award.

Gordon, in particular, was one of the best defensive players in baseball this year and had far better metrics than his fellow left-field Gold Glove contenders Michael Brantley and Yoenis Cespedes, per Ace of MLB Stats:

Not to be outdone, the Baltimore Orioles—Kansas City’s opponent in the ALCS—also nabbed a third of the awards in the AL, thanks to center-fielder Adam Jones (fourth), shortstop J.J. Hardy (second) and right-fielder Nick Markakis (second). The team’s Twitter feed congratulated the trio of repeat winners:

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the night was Kyle Seager. The Seattle Mariners’ third baseman beat out Josh Donaldson, who led the position in defensive runs saved, and Adrian Beltre, a constant force at the hot-corner.

“It is an honor to just be up for the award with all the great third basemen, let alone win the Gold Glove,” Seager said, via MLB.com’s Greg Johns. “I really owe a lot to my coaches, especially Chris Woodward. He helped me tremendously.”

While the AL featured mostly familiar names (Seager and Houston’s Dallas Keuchel were the only ones to win their first award), the National League was compiled of much more youth.

Pitcher Zach Greinke, second baseman D.J. LeMahieu, left-fielder Christian Yelich and center-fielder Juan Lagares were all-first time winners, while shortstop Andrelton Simmons, third baseman Nolan Arenado and right-fielder Jason Heyward won for the second time.

Five of those players are 25 or younger, highlighting the blindingly bright future of baseball.

One person not in the 25-and-under group, LeMahieu, 26, is quite possibly the least talked about of all the winners. But as ESPN Stats & Info’s Mark Simon argued, the Colorado Rockies second baseman is plenty deserving:

Sports Illustrated‘s Joe Sheehan didn’t fully agree, but he praised the new system, which now takes into account advanced metrics:

But the NL wasn’t all youth. Adrian Gonzalez won his fourth award, and Yadier Molina won for the seventh time in a row.

ESPN Stats & Info put it into historical perspective.

Baseball is coming out of the days of “chicks dig the long ball.” With home runs and offense continuing to decline, teams are learning that the best way to find success is through pitching and catching the ball. 

Clearly, you can win a lot of games building teams around the Gold Glove winners.   

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter. 

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Coming off one of the most-discussed postseasons in recent memory, Major League Baseball is not resting on its laurels. The offseason is in full swing, which means teams are preparing offers to free agents and lining up their trade chips. 

While the signings aren’t likely to come until the winter meetings, trades are a different animal. Thanks to the arbitration process and payroll projections for next season, teams have to be active for financial reasons. It’s an unfortunate reality of the sports world—richer teams have flexibility that others don’t. 

Trade rumors are starting to heat up, which makes this the perfect time to analyze what they mean for the players and teams being talked about. 

Royals Undergoing Changes?

Lost in the shuffle of Kansas City’s run to the World Series is the fact that this team is going to look much different in 2015. James Shields is likely gone unless the Royals want to get in a bidding war that could result in a $100 million contract. 

Billy Butler’s team option was declined, though that wasn’t a surprise because his performance in 2014 didn’t warrant $12.5 million next season. There are also six players in their second or third year of arbitration eligibility (Greg Holland, Eric Hosmer, Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Justin Maxwell, Brett Hayes). 

There’s also the escalating salary of Alex Gordon in the final guaranteed year of his contract, which will pay him $12.5 million with a team option for 2016.

All of these numbers add up to a lot of money the Royals may not have, which is why it isn’t a surprise that Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reported three key players from the World Series run could be on the block:

Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas have become identified with a magical year, but the team faces looming decisions and/or escalating salary on each player. The expectation within the industry is that they will at least listen to trade offers.

To be clear, we are not saying that any of those guys are goners — merely that life with a payroll near $100 million involves hard choices, and a need to consider all options.

Gordon is the big name in that group because of his high salary and age. (He turns 31 in February.) Hosmer made $3.6 million last year, his first year of arbitration, and is still young enough at 25 to have high upside. Mike Moustakas was a hero in the playoffs but still hit .212/.271/.361 and was demoted to Triple-A in May. 

Moustakas is also in his first year of arbitration eligibility, so he will go from making $549,000 in 2014 to substantially more in 2015. He seems to be the most likely candidate to move given his erratic performance and impending raise. 

Gordon, despite the high salary, is still a bargain at $12.5 million. He was worth 6.6 wins above replacement, which translates to $36.3 million of total value added, per FanGraphs. The Royals are still good enough to compete for a playoff spot in 2015, so trading their best all-around player doesn’t make sense. 

The best thing for the Royals to do is what Martino reports they plan to do: Listen to offers on all three, likely plan to keep Gordon and Hosmer, but if the right deal comes along for either one, then take it. Moustakas is expendable regardless of whether the Royals are contenders or not because he’s never lived up to his prospect hype. 

Sorry, it was a nice run in October for Moustakas, but a power surge in the postseason doesn’t change three years of bad performance. 

David Freese on the Move Again?

One year after the Los Angeles Angels acquired him from the St. Louis Cardinals, David Freese could find himself in another uniform by the time next season starts. He’s not the only Angel on the trade block, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports:

The team is likely to trade either second baseman Howie Kendrick or third baseman David Freese to address other needs, according to major-league sources.

The Angels would like to add another starting pitcher for depth and protection as right-hander Garrett Richards works his way back from major knee surgery. They also could seek another left-hander for their bullpen.

In addition to Garrett Richards’ injury, Tyler Skaggs will also miss next year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. That leaves the Angels with at least one question mark in the rotation (not counting what Richards will be like when he returns). 

With their payroll at $154 million in 2014, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, an increased salary for Mike Trout and the albatross contracts for Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson still on the books for at least two more seasons, the Angels don’t seem to have a lot of flexibility. 

Freese is entering his third and final year of arbitration after making $5 million last year. He has been in decline for the last two years, seeing his OPS go from a career high .839 in 2012 to .704 last year, and he rates as one of the worst defensive third baseman in baseball over the last three years. 

Kendrick has little power to speak of but is an excellent contact hitter who regularly posts averages in the .280-.290 range with above-average defense, per FanGraphs, which makes his $9.5 million salary a bargain (especially compared to what Freese will make relative to his production). 

Dealing Freese doesn’t figure to net any kind of impactful starting pitcher. He could be good enough to get some team in need of help at third base to pull the trigger on a deal for a reliever whose salary is about to increase. Rosenthal highlighted the Angels’ need for a lefty in the ‘pen, so that makes the most sense in a deal for Freese. 

J.A. Happ Deal Another Piece of Toronto’s Offseason Puzzle

Toronto general manager Alex Anthopoulos has already been busy this offseason. He picked up Justin Smoak off waivers from the Seattle and then traded Adam Lind to Milwaukee for Marco Estrada. 

The question is this: What does Anthopoulos do for an encore? According to Shi Davidi of SportsNet.ca, left-hander J.A. Happ is getting a lot of interest on the trade market:

But the (Lind) swap is also about addressing a flawed roster that too often tied manager John Gibbons’ hands, changing the mix in the clubhouse, building up the pitching depth to protect against injury, and make trading someone like J.A. Happ, who’s been generating lots of interest, possible.

Davidi highlights a lot of moving parts for any potential deal. He mentions how the Blue Jays wanted to use Lind’s $7.5 million salary in different ways, which led to his trade. Estrada can essentially serve the role Happ currently has of a fifth starter/long reliever and make less money. 

In other words, as Davidi wrote, these moves are “about creating opportunities during the off-season rather than putting together the lineup for 2015.” 

Happ is a difficult trade candidate to assess. He’s nothing special on the mound, posting a 4.22 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 158 innings, but his ability to serve multiple roles on a pitching staff does add value. He looks even better carrying a $6.7 million salary to teams in need of pitching depth without great payroll flexibility. 

The Blue Jays clearly need to make some changes and have already started to do so. They want to open a window of contending while players like Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are still playing at a high level.

It also helps Anthopoulos’ offseason strategy that young pitchers like Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez gained experience in 2014, giving the Blue Jays flexibility with the pitching staff because those two players will make roughly the league minimum next season. 

Someone will take Happ off Toronto’s hands, and it is exactly what the Blue Jays need to happen if they want to build a playoff roster next season. 

Contract information via Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. 

 If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter. 

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Looking to upgrade their offensive production at first base, the Milwaukee Brewers have acquired Adam Lind from the Toronto Blue Jays for right-handed pitcher Marco Estrada. 

The Brewers’ Twitter account officially announced the deal:

This deal comes the same day that the Blue Jays exercised Lind’s $7.5 million option for next season, per Shi Davidi of SportsNet.ca:

However, it wasn’t a surprise that Lind got traded. He’s reportedly been the source of many phone calls in recent days, per Bob Elliott of The Toronto Sun. 

Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has Brewers general manager Bob Melvin’s thoughts on the deal:

Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star adds more from Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos:

Blue Jays pitcher Marcus Stroman wished his now-former teammate well on Twitter after learning about the deal:

The 31-year-old veteran hit .321/.381/.479 in 96 games last season, though he’s best used in a platoon situation because left-handed pitching has limited him to a .588 career OPS, via Baseball Reference. 

Estrada gives the Blue Jays pitching flexibility. He appeared in 39 games last year with 18 starts, posting a 4.36 ERA and 1.201 WHIP, though he also led the league with 29 homers allowed in just 150.2 innings. 

Neither player is the difference-maker but can serve an integral role in a specific area that both teams needed to upgrade. The Brewers got virtually no offensive production from first base with Mark Reynolds as their primary starter. The Blue Jays get more depth on the pitching staff, though Estrada is best served coming out of the bullpen. 

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter. 

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are bolstering their front office at the expense of the Tampa Bay Rays, as the two-time defending National League West champions have hired former Rays general manager Andrew Friedman to be their president of baseball operations.

The team confirmed the move Tuesday, adding that current Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti will remain in a senior role:

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports first reported the news.

According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Friedman’s pact with the Dodgers means Rays president Matt Silverman will take lead baseball operations:

Per Shi Davidi of SportsNet Canada, the Rays will make Brian Auld their new team president to take the spot vacated by Silverman’s promotion:

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times notes that Friedman has been on the Dodgers’ radar for some time now:

ESPN’s Buster Olney talks about what Friedman’s first move in charge should be:

Friedman has been an instrumental part of building Tampa Bay into a perennial playoff contender since becoming general manager after the 2005 MLB season. The Rays made the postseason four times during his tenure, including going to the World Series in 2008, despite being hampered by payroll restrictions. Their 2014 payroll of just under $77 million, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, was among the lowest in baseball.

Now, Friedman will be leading a front office that spent $229 million to field a 2014 team that lost to St. Louis in the National League Division Series.

The transition won’t be as drastic for the Rays. Even though they are losing one of the best business minds in baseball, Silverman has been team president for eight years and worked with Friedman to build those postseason teams.

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter.

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If you need proof of how fickle and unpredictable baseball can be, all you have to do is look at what happened on Friday with Clayton Kershaw getting lit up, Kansas City getting an extra-inning homer for the second-straight day and Delmon Young getting another big postseason hit. 

The good news for fans who like to breathe is that Saturday and Sunday’s slate features two games each, so you can marinate over one game for a little bit before being thrust into the madness all over again. Those of us who found 13 straight hours of baseball exhilarating will have to make due with half that. 

However we consume the games this weekend, there is no shortage of things to talk about coming out of what we saw on Thursday and Friday. We’ve got predictions for what to expect this weekend as soon as we show you when and where to find the games. 

Predictions

San Francisco at Washington

We should’ve seen this coming with the San Francisco Giants. They only make the playoffs every other year, and when they do it’s resulted in World Series titles in 2010 and 2012. However, let’s pump the brakes on crowning them right now.

Jake Peavy did a fantastic job shutting down Washington’s lineup in Game 1, but that wasn’t completely unexpected. After all, the right-hander was masterful after being acquired from Boston with a 2.17 ERA in 78.2 innings that included a 1.44 mark in September. 

Game 2, however, is a huge advantage for Washington on the mound. Jordan Zimmermann has the glimmer of that season-ending no-hitter, but he was also one of the best pitchers in the National League not named Clayton Kershaw. 

In fact, if you go by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, Zimmerman’s 5.2 mark was the second-best among NL starters. Richard Justice of MLB.com also tweeted out how much the Washington Nationals love playing with their right-handed stud on the mound:

When you combine Zimmermann’s success with his Game 2 opponent, Tim Hudson, this really comes out as a no-contest. Hudson started out looking great for the Giants this season, but at 39 years old all those innings take a toll. 

The groundball specialist was a disaster in September with an 8.72 ERA and 35 hits allowed in 21.2 innings. Opponents had an OPS of .931 against him for the month. Even in a small sample size, it’s hard to defend how Hudson ended the season. 

Washington’s got a lot of hitters who strike out, which was their undoing in Game 1, but Hudson isn’t a pitcher who misses bats. All that contact will eventually turn into good things for a potent Nationals lineup that was ready to break out in the later innings on Friday. Expect this series to go back to San Francisco evened up. 

St. Louis at Los Angeles

I’m sure we all expected a game with Adam Wainwright and Kershaw on the mound to end with 19 runs and 26 hits between the two teams. Of course, this being baseball, no one will be shocked to see Lance Lynn and Zack Greinke throw up zeroes through seven innings. 

Lynn is one of those pitchers who flirts with disaster because his command is so erratic. The big right-hander walked 72 in 203.2 innings this season, yet he had a career-low 2.74 ERA, thanks to the best hit rate (8.2 per nine innings) and home run-to-fly ball ratio (6.1 percent) of his career. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a much better offense this year than they did in 2013, thanks to a healthy Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford, as well as the improved Dee Gordon at the top of the lineup. They led the league in team on-base percentage (.333) and finished sixth in walks (519), which plays into Lynn’s weakness. 

Greinke has been a machine at home this season, recording 111 strikeouts in 98.2 innings. The St. Louis Cardinals didn’t hit well with runners in scoring position during the regular season (.254/.336/.365), but they were able to figure out Kershaw in the seventh inning with four singles before a bases-loaded double from Matt Carpenter. 

Given the much larger sample we have from the Cardinals in which they struggled in high-leverage scoring situations, the advantage goes to the Dodgers in this game because Greinke is a more stable presence on the mound than Lynn. 

Baltimore at Detroit

In an interesting twist, Buck Showalter changed his starting pitcher for Game 3. Bud Norris will get the nod over Miguel Gonzalez, though Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com noted that neither one has had success against Detroit in his career:

The 29-year-old Norris went 15-8 with a 3.65 ERA in 28 starts this season. He is 0-3 with a 6.57 ERA while striking out 24 and walking 16 in four career starts vs. the Tigers.

It wasn’t immediately clear why the Orioles decided to make a change on the eve of Game 3. Gonzalez also has struggled against the Tigers throughout his career, with Detroit’s lineup posting a .328/.380/.672 slash line in 71 plate appearances vs. the third-year starter.

Whatever Showalter’s reasons for swapping pitchers, it’s hard to argue with him, given how well he manages the bullpen and seems to always make the right move in key spots. 

That said, the Detroit Tigers would have a huge advantage on the mound, regardless of who was pitching for Baltimore. David Price was acquired in July to fill the void left by Justin Verlander’s struggles and Anibal Sanchez’s injury this season. He more than held his own with 82 strikeouts and 74 hits allowed in 77.2 innings. 

Price’s precise control will also help the Tigers in this game because Brad Ausmus can’t afford to go back to his bullpen in a big spot again. If this game turns into a battle of relievers, Baltimore has the huge edge. Ausmus’ best/only play is to use Sanchez for multiple innings again like he did in Game 2, because Joba Chamberlain and Joakim Soria aren’t cutting it. 

The Baltimore Orioles are probably going to win this series, but given how well Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez are hitting, the Tigers should at least get one game before their season ends. 

Los Angeles at Kansas City

If the Royals were a fun story when the playoffs started, they are making everyone believe in their ability to compete for a championship. Their strengths have shone through the first two games with terrific starting pitching from Jason Vargas and Yordano Ventura, nine scoreless innings from the bullpen and timely hitting. 

Even though they hit an MLB-low 95 homers in the regular season, the Royals got two in extra innings from Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. 

The Angels were always a flawed team, despite winning an MLB-high 98 games, though what appeared to be their biggest flaw (starting pitching) has been effective with three runs allowed in 13 innings. Their offense has been a disaster. 

Mike Trout’s first postseason looks like one to forget as he’s 0-for-8 with two walks. Albert Pujols hasn’t been much better at 1-for-8, while Josh Hamilton is a shell of his former self (0-for-9). The blame isn’t just on those three, as the entire lineup is 10-for-65 in two games. 

In a must-win game to keep their season alive, the Angels are going with their worst starting pitcher in C.J. Wilson. He had a 4.51 ERA in the regular season and league-high 85 walks. 

The Royals counter with their best starting pitcher, James Shields, who should be allowed to throw more than 88 pitches in five innings, assuming Ned Yost doesn’t have one of those moments where he wants to make everyone’s head explode. 

Until we see some evidence that the Angels have life, you can’t pick them. It also doesn’t help that they are putting their most important game in the hands of the always volatile Wilson. Believe it or not, the Royals are going to the American League Championship Series. 

Note: Stats via Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter. 

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One thing that defines Major League Baseball’s postseason is the unpredictable nature of the short series. Even though the regular season is built on three- and four-game series, it’s harder to pin down what happens now because the separation between the best and worst teams is minimal. 

Despite what Las Vegas odds will tell you about the World Series favorites (h/t Odds Shark), the Los Angeles Dodgers are not more than twice as likely to win a championship than the Kansas City Royals. Last year, Boston was four outs away from being down 2-0 to Detroit before David Ortiz hit a grand slam to change everything. 

The good news is this gives us plenty to talk about every day for the next month, but for the purposes of this article we are focused specifically on the two Wild Card games taking place Tuesday and Wednesday for the right to play in the Division Series. 

*If needed. Courtesy of MLB.com

Key Wild Card Game Storylines

Postseason Baseball Is Back in Kansas City

There will be plenty of time to talk about the game between the Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals before, during and after the game. Instead, let’s talk about the great story that is playoff baseball in this city for the first time since 1985. 

From a personal standpoint, having been born in November 1985, this is the first time I will ever see the Royals in the postseason. Coming on the heels of Pittsburgh ending its long playoff drought last year, this is a great time to be a baseball fan. 

Are the Pirates or Royals going to generate the kind of ratings and buzz that teams like the Yankees or Red Sox would? No, of course not. But who cares? I’d rather see new blood in the postseason than sit through another five-hour game between New York and Boston. 

Bob Nightengale of USA Today started the pregame hype with a piece that came out Monday about how many fans were in attendance during the Royals’ batting practice session:

When the Royals walked onto the field Monday morning for batting practice, there were 5,000 fans in the stands to greet them, cheer them, even staging an ol‘ fashioned pep rally normally reserved for Friday night high school football games.

This is their team.

This is their town.

Last year, we saw the passionate Pittsburgh fanbase unleash more than 20 years of frustration in an exuberant game when the Pirates defeated Cincinnati in the National League Wild Card game. It was evident the Reds were out of sorts early because of the crowd, with Johnny Cueto dropping the ball while stepping back on the mound, via MLB Advanced Media:

I don’t know if Jon Lester, who has been through plenty of playoff battles in his career, will be overwhelmed by the Royals crowd, but expecting anything less than what the Pittsburgh crowd brought to its game last year would be foolish. 

Win or lose, the Royals and their fans have earned this moment to celebrate an accomplishment that is 29 years in the making. As the great Jack Buck said after Ozzie Smith’s walk-off home run in Game 5 of the 1985 National League Championship Series, go crazy, folks!

Oakland’s Second-Half Collapse

Is there a playoff team that’s harder to figure out than the A’s? I will admit that I think they are going to defeat Kansas City on Tuesday night because Lester is the best pitcher either team has and the offense has more firepower than Kansas City’s lineup. 

That said, based on what Oakland’s lineup has done in the second half of the season (3.93 runs per game), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see James Shields throw a complete-game shutout. It’s not like Shields is a slouch in the pitching department, either. 

According to Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today, Oakland’s 29-38 record in the second half is the worst ever for a team that made the playoffs. He also noted the lineup hit an American League-worst .233 after the All-Star break. 

Again, though, starting pitching makes all the difference in October. Lester was one of the best in baseball this year, finishing fourth in the AL with a 2.46 ERA and seventh in fielding independent ERA (2.80). As ESPN.com’s Tim Kurkjian wrote in his game preview, this is why Billy Beane traded for the left-hander:

“The A’s gave up a lot in Cespedes,” Kurkjian wrote, “yet they needed to add a No. 1 starter to their rotation, a guy with not just experience in October, but success in October, and Lester has been dominant in October. They couldn’t have a better guy pitching an elimination game than Lester.”

In a longer series, Oakland’s inability to score runs with any consistency will come back to haunt it. In a one-game scenario, though, anything can happen. Don’t sell the A’s short simply because the year didn’t end with the kind of bang it started with. 

Pittsburgh’s Potentially Disastrous Mistake

One thing the second wild card has done is put more of a premium on winning the division. That’s good news for the teams that do finish atop their division but bad news for teams that are forced to play catchup late in the season. 

Such is the case with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who used Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole on Saturday and Sunday trying to catch the St. Louis Cardinals atop the National League Central. If it would’ve worked, we would be praising Clint Hurdle for firing all the bullets in his chamber. 

Since it didn’t work, though, Hurdle is stuck using Edinson Volquez in a winner-take-all situation. This is the same Volquez who is playing on his fourth team since 2011 and walked 71 batters in 192.2 innings this year. 

Oh, and by the way, Madison Bumgarner is starting for San Francisco. So we have a situation where one of the best pitchers in baseball is going against a glorified journeyman in a game that you have to win. Volquez‘s 3.04 ERA glosses over the fact that he’s basically the same pitcher he was from 2011 to 2013.

Mike Petriello of FanGraphs wrote about the enigma that is Volquez and how his numbers this year are all over the place with respect to what he’s done the previous three years:

Volquez’ xFIP has been basically constant for the last four years, and his FIP has been the same, basically, since 2012. But his actual runs allowed have been all over the map. Last year, he under-performed his FIP by 1.47 runs/game; this year, he’sout-performing it by 1.11. By FIP-WAR, his 0.3 last year and 0.7 are essentially the same. By RA9-WAR, he’s jumped from -2.4 to 3.0, a massive swing. 

Petriello does note that Pittsburgh is a great place for seemingly over-the-hill pitchers to play as a way to resurrect their careers because the defense is so good. A.J. Burnett went from a burnout in New York to posting a 3.41 ERA with 389 strikeouts in 393.1 innings with the Pirates. 

Burnett left Pittsburgh for Philadelphia last winter and became the version we saw in New York (4.59 ERA, 96 walks). 

Volquez may be the latest beneficiary of the Pirates defense, but nothing in his performance suggests that he’s lost more than two runs off the 5.71 ERA he had last year.

There are only so many true No. 1 starters in baseball, but the Pirates are putting their postseason hopes on their fourth-best starting pitcher (Cole, Liriano and Charlie Morton, who had hip surgery and is out for the playoffs). 

The only other time Volquez pitched in the postseason was Game 1 of the 2010 National League Division Series against Philadelphia. That game was notable for featuring Roy Halladay’s no-hitter for the Phillies, but Volquez lasted just 1.2 innings and allowed four runs with two walks and no strikeouts. 

If something like that happens against Bumgarner, the Pirates’ playoff run is going to be very brief. 

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New York Yankees outfielder Carlos Beltran underwent surgery to repair an elbow injury that limited him to 109 games in 2014. 

The Yankees announced the news:

Beltran’s first season as a member of the Yankees was a huge disappointment. The 37-year-old hit .233/.301/.402 in 109 games. His recovery timetable means he should be ready for spring training in February, barring any setbacks.    

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One thing the Major League Baseball postseason teaches us is that after 162 games, we still don’t know anything about this game that’s so near and dear to our hearts. Looking at regular-season records and stats is only a guide, because once games start it’s all up in the air. 

That’s what keeps us watching, because if we could end up predicting these things with no actual guesswork involved it wouldn’t be nearly as fun. This year also feels different because there’s not one dominant team that stands out above the rest. 

Even the Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals, who finished with the best records in the American League and National League, have flaws that can be exposed in the right matchup. With that out of the way, here are bold predictions for the postseason after we look at the playoff schedule. 

MLB.com

Bold Predictions

The Los Angeles Angels Will Be One-and-Done

Welcome to the postseason, Mike Trout! It’s nice having you here and eventually getting that MVP award you have deserved for the last three years. This is a great moment for baseball to have the best all-around player in the playoffs. 

Unfortunately for Trout and Angels fans, they are not going to be staying around long. 

It’s not like the Angels will be the first team in history to post the best record in the regular season only to lose in the Division Series, but regardless of whether they are playing Oakland or Kansas City, there won’t be a long playoff run in store for Mike Scioscia’s group. 

The one thing everyone says about October baseball is you need pitching to win, especially starting pitching. The Angels have Jered Weaver at the top, whose wins above replacement (WAR) has gone from 5.7 in 2010 and 2011 to 1.5 this year and ERA has gone from 2.41 in 2010 to 3.59 this year (per FanGraphs). 

After Weaver, the Angels are looking at a rotation that includes C.J. Wilson (4.51 ERA), Hector Santiago (3.75) and Matt Shoemaker, who hasn’t pitched since Sept. 15. Wilson and Santiago combined for 1.3 FanGraphs’ wins above replacement this season. 

Also, per Ted Keith of Sports Illustrated, the Angels weren’t exactly dominant against either of their potential Division Series opponents: 

Lastly, there is the fact that Los Angeles went just 10-9 against Oakland and 3-3 against Kansas City, the two potential opponents in the Division Series. In fact, the Angels were an even .500 (19-19) against the other AL postseason entrants, so their road to their first World Series since 2002 will be anything but smooth.

The Angels are one of the few teams in baseball that can put up a lot of runs in a hurry, but with a volatile rotation capable of imploding at any moment, the margin for error is so small for a team that won 98 games in the regular season. 

Preventing runs is critical to success in the postseason. The Angels had the second-best run differential in baseball this year, but allowed more runs than Baltimore, Oakland and Kansas City. Losing Garrett Richards was bad enough, but then Tyler Skaggs’ Tommy John surgery was the final blow that sealed their fate as a great regular-season team ready to fall short in October. 

Clayton Kershaw’s Greatness Won’t Get L.A. Far

In the NFL, a great quarterback can make an average team a Super Bowl contender by hiding other deficiencies thanks to his ability to create big plays down the field and command the game.

In Major League Baseball, a No. 1 starter can’t do that because he only controls one part of the game and is only able to pitch a maximum of three times in a seven-game series. Clayton Kershaw is the biggest difference-maker of any starting pitcher in baseball, but even he can’t get the Dodgers into a World Series. 

Last year, criticism fell on Kershaw’s shoulders for his disastrous performance in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series against St. Louis (10 hits, seven earned runs in four innings). No one remembers that in three starts before that, he allowed one earned run with 23 strikeouts in 19 innings. 

The unfortunate part for Kershaw is that he plays on a team that’s not very good when he’s not on the mound. The Dodgers bullpen is terrible, finishing 22nd in ERA while posting the third-most walks. They have also never been a team that plays well against other good teams. 

Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated wrote in his Dodgers playoff preview that the team being 26 games over .500 in the regular season results almost exclusively from playing the worst teams in the National League West:

In all, the Dodgers have the most potent offense of any NL team outside of the Rockies (4.43 runs per game) while allowing 3.81 runs per game (seventh) en route to the league’s second-best record and run differential (+101). It’s worth noting, however, that they piled up the wins against the NL West’s lesser teams, going a combined 40-17 (.702) with a +75 run differential against the Padres, Rockies and Diamondbacks, but just 54-51 (.514) against the rest of their schedule.

The Dodgers are returning to the scene of last year’s playoff defeat, taking on St. Louis in the Division Series. Adam Wainwright may not be Kershaw, but he’s really good on his own with a 2.38 ERA and 4.5 FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. 

Los Angeles rates well as a defensive team overall, with 26 defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs, but the outfield was pedestrian with Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford all having below-average overall defensive ratings. 

Kershaw can do many things on a baseball field, but he can’t catch balls not hit to him and the team has been average against anyone besides the bottom three teams in the National League West. That’s why the Dodgers won’t make it to the World Series. 

Washington Will Win the World Series

Despite my earlier talk about no great teams in baseball right now, picking the World Series winner was among the easiest tasks of all the playoff predictions because they meet all the criteria that we look for when evaluating a championship team. 

The Nationals had the best rotation by ERA (3.04) in baseball this year. They have five starters with a legitimate argument to start in the postseason, and three finished with an ERA under 3.00 (Jordan Zimmermann, Tanner Roark, Doug Fister). 

ESPN’s Doug Glanville had the best “analysis” on which starter opposing teams may want to pick on:

Their bullpen finished strong after Drew Storen moved back to the closer’s role, finishing fourth with a 3.00 ERA. They have above-average or better defenders at shortstop (Ian Desmond), third base (Anthony Rendon) and catcher (Wilson Ramos). 

The one Achilles heel that seemed to be holding the Nationals back was on offense. Overall, the numbers are strong with the eighth-best on-base percentage (.321), ninth-most runs (686) and 10th-best slugging percentage (.393). 

Any problems with the bat seem to have been fixed in August, which is when Bryce Harper started looking like the slugger we all expected him to be before that injury earlier in the season. He hit 10 of his 13 homers in the final two months, which gave the Nationals a nice trio in the middle of their order with Rendon and Adam LaRoche. 

Every other team has a notable flaw that you can single out as a reason why it won’t win the World Series. The Cardinals don’t score runs; the Dodgers are average when Kershaw isn’t on the mound; the Pirates are relying on Edinson Volquez in their rotation. 

The Nationals are the best and most complete team in baseball entering the postseason and will capture the first World Series title in franchise history. 

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