Archive for October, 2016

Marco Estrada, Blue Jays Open ALDS with Statement-Making Rout

From the way it was being billed, the American League Division Series showdown between the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers sounded less like a baseball affair and more like a prizefight.

If that’s how it is, I’m compelled to say the Blue Jays have scored a first-round knockdown.

There was plenty of energy in Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas, at the outset of Game 1 on Thursday afternoon—rightfully so in light of the still-fresh memory of Rougned Odor punching Jose Bautista, not to mention the roots of said punch in last year’s ALDS showdown. With that backdrop in place, how could anything other than a brutal back-and-forth ensue?

Well, how about a 10-1 drubbing in favor of the invading villains instead?

None other than Bautista provided the exclamation point with a three-run homer in the ninth inning, but the life had been sucked out of the stadium long before that. In fact, the win expectancy chart from FanGraphs makes no secret of where that happened:

That five-run third inning featured an RBI double by Josh Donaldson, an RBI single by Bautista and a groan-inducing, base-clearing triple by Troy Tulowitzki. It took Cole Hamels more than 40 pitches to get through it all, and boy did it feel like it had gone from a 50-50 game to one the Blue Jays had roughly a 90 percent chance of winning.

“We’re baseball players, not UFC fighters,” Bautista told Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, “And we come here to play ballgames.”

All the Blue Jays needed to hang on was for Marco Estrada not to pull a Hamels and have a meltdown of his own. It wasn’t much of a challenge—granted—but he accepted it all the same.

Estrada did give up the Rangers’ lone run, but it came in the ninth inning after he had already hurled eight dominant frames. In all, he pitched 8.1 innings, struck out six with no walks and allowed only four hits.

As good as that line makes his performance sound, it was somehow even better than that. Case in point: One of the hits Estrada gave up was a soft trickler to first base off the bat of Adrian Beltre that had the characteristics of a batted ball that otherwise goes for a .000 batting average, according to Baseball Savant.

The Rangers needed more lucky hits like that, and Estrada just didn’t allow them. He was locating his fastball and keeping Texas hitters off balance with his ball-on-string changeup. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet would know when Estrada has a good changeup, so we should take his word for it that it was especially good in Game 1:

Estrada isn’t the most impressive name in a Blue Jays rotation that also features 20-game winner J.A. Happ, American League ERA champ Aaron Sanchez and fan favorite Marcus Stroman. But his Game 1 performance is a good reminder of how capable he’s been in his two years with the team. He led the AL in hits per nine innings for a second straight season in 2016, and his ERA only regressed to 3.48 from 3.13 in 2015.

Indeed, the fact that Estrada isn’t the most impressive name in Toronto’s starting rotation is a reminder of how strong the unit is. Blue Jays starters led the American League with a 3.64 ERA, and John Gibbons will tell you they’re ready to keep that up in October.

“If you keep them in line, we feel good about them all,” the Blue Jays manager said before the series began, per Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com. “That’s a big part of our strength is our starting rotation. And we’ve managed the last couple of months to keep them all rested.”

As for Toronto’s offense, what was lost amid the excitement (and confusion over Zach Britton’s absence) of Edwin Encarnacion’s walk-off home run against the Baltimore Orioles in the AL Wild Card Game was that Blue Jays hitters struggled for most of the evening. Right up until Encarnacion took his parrot for a stroll, they still seemed mired in the slump that dragged the team to a 13-16 showing in September and October.

But Thursday? Thursday was more like it.

The presence of Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion gives Toronto’s offense the image of a parade of home run hitters. But while they do hit their share of dingers, what Blue Jays hitters really excelled at in 2016 was being tough outs. They saw the most pitches per plate appearance of any team in 2016, a notable departure from their more aggressive style in 2015.

Especially in that big third inning, the Blue Jays looked more like themselves in Game 1. They gave Hamels no quarter, forcing him to throw perfect pitches that he just didn’t have. Facing an offense that can do that is just as demoralizing as facing one that’s a threat for a dinger at any moment.

Of course, it must be said that Hamels is easier prey these days than his reputation suggests. He pitched well for most of 2016 but fell on hard times with a 4.28 ERA in his last 11 starts. Hard contact (37.2 Hard%) became a big problem, an indication that something is up with the Rangers ace.

Still, this is no time to balk about how the Blue Jays walked into Arlington and stole Game 1.

No, sir. They made the Rangers, they of the American League’s best regular-season record, look overmatched. The Blue Jays did it with the same ingredients that made them a good team in their own right for most of 2016. And with Happ set to take the mound opposite Yu Darvish, who had issues of his own at the end of the year, they could well do it again in Game 2 on Friday.

The Blue Jays still need two more wins before we can call the fight in their favor. But with their opponent reeling and them not even sweating, they have to like their chances.

     

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Blue Jays vs. Rangers: Game 1 Score and Twitter Reaction from 2016 MLB Playoffs

The Toronto Blue Jays took a 1-0 lead in the 2016 American League Division Series with a 10-1 victory over the Texas Rangers on Thursday in Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas. 

Marco Estrada pitched a gem for the Blue Jays. He stymied the Rangers offense over 8.1 innings, allowing one earned run on four hits and striking out six batters.

Former MLB reliever LaTroy Hawkins thought Estrada’s changeup was particularly effective:

Rangers ace Cole Hamels had one of his worst starts of the 2016 season, going 3.1 innings and allowing seven runs—six earned—on six hits. Hamels’ command was an issue throughout his outing. He walked three batters and threw 82 pitches.

MLB.com’s Richard Justice noted how poor the start was:

Hamels was one out away from getting out of the third inning before the game unraveled for the Rangers.

Josh Donaldson got the Blue Jays on the board with a double to left field. The line drive narrowly evaded Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre, who got a glove on the ball but couldn’t react in time to make the catch. Jose Bautista then doubled Toronto’s lead with a single to center.

A walk to Edwin Encarnacion loaded the bases, and Troy Tulowitzki emptied them with a triple to right-center field to put the Blue Jays ahead 5-0.

Rangers center fielder Ian Desmond has largely exceeded expectations following his transition to the outfield. Tulowitzki’s three-run triple, however, highlighted Desmond’s relative inexperience at the position. As he was tracking the ball, Desmond—bracing for an impact with the outfield wall—pulled up well before he needed to, allowing Tulowitzki’s hit to fall in.

Sports Illustrated‘s Jonah Keri didn’t hold back with his criticism of Desmond:

Vice Sports’ Dave Lozo thought the play would have at least made Roger Dorn of Major League proud:

ESPN.com’s Keith Law was seemingly surprised how quickly the Blue Jays took control of the game:

Melvin Upton Jr. began the top of the fourth with a solo home run to left field to give the Blue Jays a 6-0 lead.

Donaldson then knocked Hamels out of the game after singling home Devon Travis.

Bautista piled further misery on the Rangers with a three-run homer in the top of the ninth, putting Toronto ahead 10-0. According to the Toronto Star‘s Bruce Arthur, the right-handed slugger made sure not to anger any Rangers players with another bat flip:

Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball thought the 35-year-old helped himself with free agency on the horizon:

FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan tweeted that Bautista’s home run meant Texas has now allowed more runs than it has scored in 2016.

Dropping the first game is far from a decisive blow to the Rangers in the ALDS. Texas took a 2-0 lead over the Blue Jays in last year’s ALDS before ultimately losing the series.

Still, getting a win in Game 2 will be critical for the Rangers. They won’t want to be in a 2-0 hole when the series shifts to the raucous Rogers Centre. Texas finished only three games over .500 on the road this year.

The good news for the Rangers is that they’ll have their best pitcher on the mound to even the series. Yu Darvish went 7-5 and posted a 3.41 ERA in 17 starts. His 3.09 FIP was lowest among the team’s starters, though, per Baseball-Reference.com.

J.A. Happ will get the nod for Toronto. He went 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA during the regular season. On May 5, the veteran lefty went seven innings and allowed one run in a 12-2 win over the Rangers.

If Happ delivers a similar outing, then Toronto will have one foot in the American League Championship Series for the second year in a row.

 

Postgame Reaction

Rangers manager Jeff Banister doesn’t think Thursday’s defeat will have a residual impact on his team over the rest of the series, according the Canadian Press’ Neil Davidson (via the Vancouver Sun):

Given how our club has played all year long, and we’ve been in these type of situations before, look, we’ve come back and played well after these type of games. And with the veteran group that we have in there, I don’t worry about the collateral damage in a game like this. Obviously we would have liked to have played a lot more competitively. But the other thing that you’ve got to look at, too, is Estrada threw a heck of a game.

After the game, Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin had high praise for Estrada, saying he has “little hints of [Greg] Maddux” in his game, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

Estrada wasn’t disappointed that he couldn’t go the full nine innings, per Nicholson-Smith: “Who cares? We won. That’s all that matters.”

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Blue Jays Fan Charged with Mischief for Throwing Beer at Hyun Soo Kim

The Toronto Sun reported on Thursday that Ken Pagan was charged with one count of mischief for throwing a beer can from the crowd at Baltimore Orioles outfielder Hyun Soo Kim during the Toronto Blue Jays’ 5-2 victory in Tuesday’s American League Wild Card Game.

The Toronto Police issued a news release saying Pagan was arrested and charged.

The Toronto Police also released a picture of Pagan on Wednesday and encouraged the perpetrator to turn himself in after throwing the beer at the Rogers Centre:

Joe Warmington of the Toronto Sun noted Pagan talked to police Wednesday and arranged to do just that. According to Warmington, Pagan is an employee of Postmedia and an award-winning journalist.

The incident occurred in the seventh inning when Melvin Upton Jr. drove a deep fly ball to left. Kim caught it near the wall, where Pagan narrowly missed him with the beer can. Center fielder Adam Jones ran over to defend his teammate and yelled into the crowd, while manager Buck Showalter came out of the dugout to discuss the play with the umpires.

Jones voiced his displeasure after the game, per ESPN.com:

Someone threw a beer down at my player. That’s about as pathetic as it gets between the lines. You don’t do that. I don’t care how passionate you think you are. Yell, cuss, scream, tell us we’re horrible. We get that. We’re the opposition. We completely understand that. To throw something at a player, that’s as pathetic as it gets.

The Blue Jays offered a statement on their Twitter page, apologizing for the incident to the Orioles and Major League Baseball and ensuring they will use stricter security measures to increase the safety of the fans and players:

This is not the first time Blue Jays supporters have thrown debris onto the field in a pressure-packed postseason moment.

A number of fans threw bottles and garbage during Toronto’s Game 5 victory over the Texas Rangers in last year’s American League Division Series after Rougned Odor scored from third base when catcher Russell Martin hit Shin-Soo Choo’s bat with a throw back to the pitcher.

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Votto Posts .408 Batting Average After All-Star Break

Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto finished the second half of the season posting a .408 batting average, becoming the first player with at least 200 plate appearances to hit over .400 after the All-Star break since Ichiro Suzuki in 2004, per MLB Stat of the Day.

Votto’s .252/.386/.446 batting line prior to the All-Star break put him in position for the worst season of his career, but a hot second half pushed his season average to .326, well above his career .313 mark.

Despite a horrendous 68-94 record for the Reds this season, Votto managed to drive in the third-most runs (97 RBI) in his career and tied for the second-most home runs (29) he’s collected in a campaign.

Votto remains under contract with Cincinnati through 2024, which will put him in his age-41 season. The contract was the richest in franchise history for the Reds, and he’s proved himself worth it early on. With eight years remaining on the deal, it’s still tough to speculate how well Votto will be playing toward the end of the 10-year contract.

The biggest drawback of age sometimes arrives in the field, but even a slight decline for Votto would keep him at a respectable level of defense for the first base position.

Votto also has one of MLB’s best eyes at the plate, having led the majors in walks four times while posting the highest on-base percentage five times (including in 2016). Likely one of the most unheralded hitters in baseball, he could find himself in Cooperstown one day should he avoid a dramatic drop in play.

The youth movement may have begun in Cincinnati with the shipping of Johnny Cueto to the Royals last season and Jay Bruce to the Mets in 2016, but Votto figures to be a mainstay in the lineup for years to come.

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Don Mattingly Reportedly Would Have Resigned If Barry Bonds Stayed with Marlins

On Monday, the Miami Marlins fired hitting coach Barry Bonds, one of the greatest home run hitters in MLB history.

Later in the day an MLB coach told Kevin Kernan of the New York Post that Marlins manager Don Mattingly would have resigned if Bonds had remained with the team. 

According to SiriusXM’s Craig Mish, Bonds’ “commitment level dwindled” as the season progressed, and Mattingly called him out over the summer. 

However, the writing was on the wall early.

In April, Mattingly, who was in his first season with Miami after spending five years as the manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, took a swipe at Bonds’ work ethic, saying he was “a work in progress,” while lauding assistant hitting coach Frank Menechino for making most of the preparations ahead of games, per Ann Killion of the San Francisco Chronicle:

You see Frankie still doing a lot of the prep work. Barry is still getting into the routine of the ugly side of coaching: being here at 1 and studying video, studying on the plane and you don’t get a chance to watch movies, things like that.

It just depends how good you want to be as a coach. If you want to be a really good coach, you’ve got to do the work.

Under Bonds, the Marlins offense was mediocre as the team finished with a 79-82 record, good for third place in the National League East:

Miami Marlins 2016 Offensive Stats
Stat Result MLB Rank
Average .263 4th
Hits 1,460 5th
Runs 655 27th
Runs Per Game 4.07 27th
Strikeouts 1,213 6th-Least
Home Runs 128 29th

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

However, the Marlins’ difficult ending to the season, with the tragic death of ace Jose Fernandez, made late-September and October baseball irrelevant.

For Bonds, his first job in MLB since his retirement as a player in 2007 ended early, and his reported problems with Mattingly might not make it easy for him to catch on anywhere else.

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Red Sox vs. Indians ALDS Game 1: Live Score and Highlights

FINAL SCORE:  Indians 5, Red Sox 4, Cleveland leads the series, 1-0

The Cleveland Indians belted three home runs in the bottom of the third inning against Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, and defeated the Red Sox in the opener of the American League Division Series.

The Red Sox scored a run in the eighth inning on a Brock Holt home run, and had the tying run at third later that inning and on base again in the ninth but they could not push the tying run home.

Cody Allen struck out Dustin Pedroia on a breaking ball to end the game.

While Allen got the save, the key move of the game came when Cleveland manager Terry Francona took out starter Trevor Bauer and replaced him with left-handed ace Andrew Miller in the fifth inning. Miller shut down the powerful Red Sox for two full innings, and that allowed the Indians to hold the lead and maintain momentum.

Roberto Perez, Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor all homered for the Indians, while Andrew Benintendi, Sandy Leon and Brock Holt homered for the Red Sox.

The two teams will meet in Game 2 on Friday afternoon.

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MLB Playoff Schedule 2016: Updated AL, NL Predictions Before Thursday’s ALDS

This prediction thing isn’t so hard, folks. After all, I got the Wild Card Games right, so how hard could it be predicting the rest of the postseason?

OK, OK, it’s incredibly hard. I’ve surely jinxed myself now. But hey, that won’t stop me from putting my picks out there. So below, we’ll break down the postseason schedule, and I’ll make my predictions all the way up to the World Series.

Let’s see if I can keep my “hot streak” going.

    

You have to feel for Cleveland. It has a number of devastating injuries to deal with and the best offense in baseball. Simply put, the Boston Red Sox and their legion of bashers would be my pick in this series even if the Indians had Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar available.

It’s hard to bet against an offense that features David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez and Jackie Bradley Jr. and led the league in runs scored and batting average.

And manager John Farrell sees a lot of similarities between this unit and the one that won the World Series in 2013, per Sam Galanis of NESN:

The similarities are probably in how tight-knit group this team is when compared to 2013. Very different characters, very different personalities. A younger team, a more athletic team in the ‘16 version. But still, kind of a dynamic type of offense that I think the offense in ‘13 was as well. The common denominator between both are how they care for one another inside our clubhouse existed. That’s strong today, and I think that’s probably maybe customary to successful teams that have withstood a number of different challenges.

If Boston’s starting pitching and bullpen hold up, it’ll slug its way to the World Series.

Prediction: Red Sox

       

If there was a theme song for this matchup, it would certainly be Taylor Swift’s “Bad Blood.”

Remember this?

Or this?

Yeah, there’s bad blood, all right.

And despite all of that, among the four divisional series, this is also the one I feel least confident picking. Honestly, I could see this matchup going either way between two teams that seem fairly even. The offenses are equally dangerous. The Blue Jays probably have the better overall staff, though the Rangers have Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish atop the table.

Ultimately, my gut pick is that the Rangers will win the rematch, in five, with home-field advantage on their side. But honestly, I won’t be shocked if the Blue Jays win the series.

I will be shocked if tempers don’t boil over at some point, however.

Prediction: Rangers

        

In a series that very likely could go all five games, the pitching matchup between Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer will be key. Both pitchers have had shaky postseasons in the past, but the pitcher who can rise to the occasion will likely take his team to the NLCS.

If Scherzer struggles, the Nationals won’t have Stephen Strasburg available to right the ship. That’s a huge loss for Washington. 

Injuries, in general, may end Washington’s season. Stephanie Apstein of SI.com breaks down the team’s woes in that department:

All-Star catcher Wilson Ramos is out until 2017 with last week’s tear of his right ACL, an injury he also incurred in 2012. Bryce Harper, last year’s NL MVP, is expected to play, but he has hit just .243 (87 points worse than in ’15), gotten on base at a .373 clip (also 87 points worse) and slugged .441 (108 points worse) while struggling through a right shoulder injury. And ’15 playoff hero Daniel Murphy, who hit .529 and slugged 1.294 with four home runs in the Mets’ four-game NLCS sweep of the Cubs, strained his left glute on Sept. 18 and hasn’t started a game since.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, are healthy, balanced and certainly no strangers to this stage. It’s tough to bet against them here.

Prediction: Dodgers 

       

You can’t write a better script than this. The San Francisco Giants have won the World Series three times in the past six years (2010, 2012, 2014). The Chicago Cubs, meanwhile, haven’t won the World Series since 1908.

If ever there was a team you’d expect to break the hearts of the Cubbies after their amazing regular season, it’s the Giants.

But the Cubs are baseball’s most well-rounded team. They won the season series, 4-3, and they won’t have to face Madison Bumgarner until Game 3, meaning they’ll only see him once in the series. Of course, if they drop the first two games at home, that means they’ll all but be eliminated, given Bumgarner‘s dominance.

At this point, it’s hard to argue that Bumgarner is anything less than the greatest postseason pitcher of all time. Bob Nightengale of USA Today made a pretty strong case:

  • He has now gone 23 consecutive innings in the postseason without giving up a run.
  • He is yielding a 0.79 ERA in his last nine postseason appearances, including three complete games since 2014.
  • In his last eight postseason road games, he is 8-0 with a 0.50 ERA, and has yet to give up a hit with a runner in scoring position in 24 at-bats.
  • He has three career postseason shutouts, one shy of the record set by Giants Hall of Famer Christy Mathewson a century ago.
  • He has made six postseason starts without permitting a run, tying Hall of Famer Tom Glavine for the highest total in baseball history.
  • And, he has the lowest ERA, 1.94, of any starter with at least 12 postseason starts.

But, again, the Cubs only have to face him once, in all probability. That’s good news for Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell and one of the game’s best offenses. Add in a solid rotation, a shutdown closer in Aroldis Chapman and manager Joe Maddon’s genius, and this feels like a Cubs team capable of beating the mighty Giants.

And perhaps capable of beating a curse, too.

Prediction: Cubs

         

I think the Red Sox are the best team in the American League, and I think their offense is better than any other team’s strength. I’m sticking with Ortiz and the Sox here.

Prediction: Red Sox 

   

I think the Giants will be the biggest test for the Cubs. I think beating Bumgarner and company will alleviate some pressure and give baseball’s best roster more confidence in the face of stifling pressure. Plus, I simply think the Cubs have less question marks than the Dodgers.

Prediction: Cubs

   

The curse ends this year. In seven games, in a World Series that will go down as one of the best matchups in baseball history, but when the smoke clears, Chicago will be celebrating.

Prediction: Cubs 

    

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

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Blue Jays vs. Rangers ALDS Game 1: Live Score and Highlights

Two thrilling Wild Card Games are in the books, and we’re set to begin the division series, with action kicking off on the American League side as the Texas Rangers host the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays advanced to the ALDS with a 5-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles in Tuesday’s AL Wild Card Game. Edwin Encarnacion delivered the big blow with a walk-off, three-run home run in the bottom of the 11th inning.

Meanwhile, the Rangers posted the best record in the AL at 95-67 en route to winning the AL West title by nine games over the Seattle Mariners.

Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.32 ERA, 200 K) gets the Game 1 start for the Rangers, while the Blue Jays made the somewhat surprising decision to go with Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.48 ERA, 165 K) out of the gate.

Who will come out on top in Game 1 of this exciting ALDS matchup?

Keep it right here for live updates on all of today’s action.

 

FINAL: Blue Jays 10, Rangers 1

W: Marco Estrada (1-0), L: Cole Hamels (0-1)

 

SCORING PLAYS

Top 3: Josh Donaldson RBI double (1-0)

Top 3: Jose Bautista RBI single (2-0)

Top 3: Troy Tulowitzki 3-RBI triple (5-0)

Top 4: Melvin Upton Jr. solo home run (6-0)

Top 4: Josh Donaldson RBI single (7-0)

Top 9: Jose Bautista 3-RBI home run (10-0)

Bot 9: Shin-Soo Choo RBI groundout (10-1)

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NLDS Schedule 2016: TV Coverage, Early Odds and Series Predictions

The National League is the Chicago Cubs’ to lose.

There are no locks in MLB‘s postseason, especially during the best-of-five division stage. Yet there’s no argument over which club is best positioned to reach the World Series.

During a dominant season, the 103-58 Cubs outscored opponents by 252 runs led by rightful NL MVP favorite Kris Bryant. Only the Boston Red Sox and Coors Field-fueled Colorado Rockies scored more runs. The Cubs also allowed an MLB-low 3.4 runs per game with help from a deep rotation and baseball’s best defense.

They will open their postseason Friday night against the San Francisco Giants, who rode ace Madison Bumgarner in Wednesday’s 3-0 Wild Card Game victory over the New York Mets. A heavy favorite to run the table, per Odds Shark, Chicago gets a San Francisco squad that crawled to the finish line after a strong first half.

If the Cubs take care of business, they would then challenge the winner of the Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers series. Although that National League Division Series matchup is much more even, the Nationals are hobbling into the playoffs without at least two key contributors.

After we look at the NLDS schedule and updated World Series odds, let’s take a deeper dive into the Dodgers-Nationals slate.

NLDS Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals

This isn’t going to be a fun series for hitters.

Then again, we could say the same about the entire National League bracket. All five postseason participants finished 2016 atop MLB’s team-ERA leaderboard:

The Dodgers’ pitching also registered a record-setting 1,510 strikeouts this season. Second on the all-time ledger? The 2016 Nationals, who collected 1,476 behind Max Scherzer’s MLB-high 284.

Some young pitchers are sacrificing longevity for whiffs. Not Scherzer, who sported a 0.97 WHIP through 228.1 innings. Jon Morosi of Fox Sports noted the historical significance of the Nationals ace’s stat line:

He should take the mound in Friday’s opening game. In an interview on ESPN Radio’s McNabb & Custer, via ESPN.comNationals manager Dusty Baker ruled out Stephen Strasburg in the NLDS due to a strained flexor mass in his pitching elbow.

Even though Strasburg coughed up six runs to the Dodgers in their only encounter of the season, his absence is a huge blow for Washington. Gio Gonzalez relinquished 19 runs in September, putting the rotation in doubt after Scherzer and likely Game 2 starter Tanner Roark.

It doesn’t help that the Dodgers will counter Scherzer with Clayton Kershaw.

Missing over two months didn’t stop the Dodgers ace from tying Noah Syndergaard for the highest WAR (6.5) among all pitchers. If not for his back injury, he would unanimously win the NL Cy Young Award with one of the greatest lines of all time.

For those who were worried about how he would return, he’s the same old Kershaw. In five starts off the disabled list, the star southpaw has a 1.29 ERA with 27 strikeouts and two walks over 28 innings.

Dodgers pitching coach Rick Honeycutt praised his ace to MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick:

I feel every time out there there’s a chance he can throw a no-hitter. Seems so long ago, but that first half of the season, it was ridiculous. He’s not happy with his curveball. He expects perfection from himself. It’s to the extreme, but that’s what separates him. The commitment to be all-in on every pitch is what I like about him. For me, just to have him back out there gives you that stability. You feel like the game’s in order when he’s out there. His approach and mentality and his overall demeanor is a big lift for us right now.

Fellow southpaw Rich Hill, who validated last year’s improbable return with a 2.12 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 110.1 innings, will follow Kershaw in Game 2. Luckily for the Nats, they notched MLB’s fourth-best OPS against lefties (.783) during the season. Less fortunate for them, one of the main catalysts to that success is out of commission.

Wilson Ramos scorched lefties with a .330/.377/.631 slash line in 2016, but the catcher tore his ACL during the season’s final week. Star sluggers Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy also missed some time down the stretch.

Rookie phenom Trea Turner can help overcome Los Angeles’ rolling offense that is led by fellow newcomer Corey Seager. But the Dodgers benefit from their predominantly left-handed rotation.

Given Los Angeles’ league-worst .622 OPS off southpaws, Washington may have to roll the dice on the struggling Gonzalez. He’s the only starting southpaw at its disposal. Baker is also going to need erratic reliever Oliver Perez to get some huge outs against Seager, Yasmani Grandal, Adrian Gonzalez and Joc Pederson.

The Dodgers won five of their six meetings over the Nationals this season, and the circumstances bode well for transferring that success into their postseason encounter.

    

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-reference.com, unless otherwise noted.

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ALDS Schedule 2016: TV Times, Live Stream for Thursday’s Game 1 Matchups

With the Wild Card Games now complete, the 2016 American League Division Series is set to begin Thursday, with the league’s final four teams vying for the AL pennant.

Each contest will have its own spotlight, as the Game 1 slate features an afternoon showdown followed by a nightcap. Regardless, Thursday should yield some spectacular baseball, as both sets of teams appear evenly matched.

Take a look at Thursday’s start times below, as well as the television and live-streaming schedules. The full 2016 MLB playoff schedule is available at MLB.com.

The most newsworthy AL series is between the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays. These two teams do not like each other after a hostile series last postseason, and the bad blood carried over into this past regular season with a brawl in May.

Both teams are downplaying the rocky relationship ahead of the series, but it remains to be seen if cool heads will prevail when the intensity ramps up at game time. Texas’ Rougned Odor, a key figure in the feud, said Wednesday that his team is just focused on the game, per Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi: “That’s over already; we’re just trying to win this series and win how we play.”

Toronto’s Jose Bautista echoed this sentiment, per Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith:

In Game 1, Cole Hamels will get the start for the Rangers against Marco Estrada in a matchup that appears slightly uneven on the surface. Hamels turned in a stout season with a 15-5 record and a 3.32 ERA. On the other hand, Estrada struggled in the win department in 2016 with a 9-9 mark, but he did sport a solid 3.48 ERA.

Pitching in the National League for the majority of his career with the Philadelphia Phillies, Hamels does not have a ton of history against Toronto’s lineup, as he has yet to face Josh Donaldson in the majors. Furthermore, key Blue Jays such as Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki have fared well against Hamels in their careers, per ESPN.com:

On the other side, Estrada has a relatively favorable history against some of Texas’ top hitters:

Hamels has more playoff experience with 15 career starts for a 7-5 record and 3.03 ERA, but Estrada has been good under the bright lights, too. He is 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA in seven appearances. Regardless, Game 1 will be crucial, as each team will want to earn an early lead in a five-game series, and the numbers indicate that it could go in either squad’s favor.

In the other ALDS showdown, it figures to be an offensive battle between two teams with potent lineups.

The Boston Red Sox led the majors by a sizable margin in scoring with 878 runs and team batting average at .282. The Red Sox boast a slew of dangerous bats, including three studs in the middle of the lineup, as noted by MLB.com:  

Meanwhile the Cleveland Indians finished fifth with 777 runs and sixth with a .262 average. The Indians feature a deep order that may not overwhelm with power, but they possess four guys (Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana) who finished the regular season with an on-base percentage over .340.

Cleveland does have a slight pitching advantage, though, as the Indians sport a 3.84 team ERA compared to Boston’s 4.00 mark. The Indians also have a stellar bullpen led by Cody Allen, Andrew Miller and Danny Otero.

Rick Porcello will take the hill for Boston after posting a 22-win regular season, but he has not been as good in the postseason during his career. Porcello has a 4.41 ERA in only 16.1 innings pitched but is taking on Cleveland hurler Trevor Bauer, who has never started a playoff game. 

With that in mind, Thursday’s uncertain pitching factors could lead to a high-scoring affair in Game 1.

             

Statistics are courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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