Archive for November, 2015

Stock Up, Stock Down on Top Available MLB Stars Entering December

Zack Greinke remains unsigned and Aroldis Chapman remains with the Cincinnati Reds, but the top available MLB stars are starting to vanish off the shelf.

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Jordan Zimmermann has inked a new deal with the Detroit Tigers, which means that the loaded class of free-agent aces just shrank by one.

Last week, we took a look at potential surprise destinations for the top names on the winter market. This week, it’s time to check in on that group and determine whose stock is up and whose stock is down based on all of the most recent buzz.

The list that follows includes the top five players from Bleacher Report’s free-agent big board and the two most prominent targets on the trade block. In the process of fitting those two trade targets into the rankings, 2015 performance was the most important consideration, but their respective contract situation was also factored into the equation.

Now that Jose Fernandez has been deemed “not currently available,” a new trade piece replaces him in the rankings. Unfortunately for that outfielder, his stock is definitely not on the rise.

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Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey Blockbusters Need to Wait Until Next Winter

Jordan Zimmermann busted through the 2015 free-agent logjam Sunday when he inked a five-year pact with the Detroit Tigers. Now, the offseason’s deep pool of pitchers can (and will) flow in his wake.

But there are two ostensibly available arms who should tread water. Or, more accurately, their teams should.

We’re talking about the New York Mets‘ Matt Harvey and the Miami MarlinsJose Fernandez. Neither is due to rock the open market until 2019, but both have been the subject of trade rumors that understandably put the baseball world on high alert.

They’re two of the top young right-handers in the game, after all, bursting with velocity and pure, nasty stuff. And with Fernandez just 23 years old and Harvey 26, both may get better—a wake-up-in-a-cold-sweat thought for opposing hitters.

Yet the Mets could choose to move Harvey from a crowded rotation that features fellow burgeoning studs Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, with Zack Wheeler set to return at some point next season from Tommy John surgery.

New York needs a bat, at least, with free agents Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy possibly about to walk, and Harvey could likely fetch one from a club with holes in its rotation.

As for Fernandez, his name began churning through the rumor mill in earnest on Nov. 17 when SiriusXM host Craig Mish reported there’s “growing sentiment” the 2013 National League Rookie of the Year will be dealt this offseason.

The rumor came with whispers about a growing rift between Fernandez and the Marlins brass, which CBS Sports’ Dayn Perry outlined:

With regard to Fernandez, he’s reportedly already rebuffed one attempt to sign him to a long-term extension, and there’s been hints of tension between Fernandez and the Marlins over a post-Tommy John workload plan. It doesn’t help matters that Fernandez is represented by Scott Boras, and the Marlins’ high command doesn’t much care for the super-agent.

So perhaps the fear that Fernandez isn’t open to signing an extension coupled with some personal animus for his agent has prompted the Marlins to shop their franchise hurler.

“I have heard something,” Fernandez said of the trade scuttlebutt, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. “I’m not paying attention to it at all.”

Perhaps not. But everyone else is, as they are with Harvey. If either player were to be moved, it’d immediately shift the balance of power somewhere.

Again, though, both the Mets and Marlins would be wise to hang on to their rising-star assets, at least for one more year.

The argument is simple, and it centers on supply and demand. Even with Zimmermann off the board, clubs in search of pitching have a buffet of appetizing options.

There’s David Price and Zack Greinke, the Cy Young Award runners-up in each league. After that, you’ve got strong No. 2 and No. 3 candidates like Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen plus high-upside reclamation projects like Jeff Samardzija.

Next year’s pitching class, by contrast, is a veritable wasteland after right-hander Stephen Strasburg (himself a subject of persistent trade speculation). Here, compare the lists of MLB’s 2015-16 free agents to the projected 2016-17 crop, per MLB Trade Rumors. Pretty striking disparity, right?

By holding back and making Harvey and Fernandez available next winter, the Mets and Marlins would be able to demand absolutely insane packages of top prospects and big league talent and would almost certainly get it from someone.

The Mets could shore up their offense, and Miami could get, well, whatever it’s looking for at the time. You just never know with the perpetually rebuilding/retooling/floundering Fish.

Of course, there is an inherent risk. Injuries can strike at any time, diminishing value. In fact, they already have struck: Harvey underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2013, and Fernandez had the procedure in May 2014.

In a way, though, that’s another argument for pumping the brakes on any trade. Fernandez started just 11 games last year, his first season back from TJ. And while he teased with 79 strikeouts and a 2.92 ERA in 64.2 innings, a full campaign of ace-like dominance would assuage any concerns about his durability.

Speaking of which, Harvey just weathered a controversy about his supposedly doctor-imposed innings limit to toss more than 200 frames between the regular season and playoffs for the NL champion Mets. If he can do it againand replicate or improve upon his 2.71 ERA and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings—he’ll officially have put the Tommy John talk to bed.

Surely, there are many in Mets and Marlins land who don’t want their teams to trade Harvey and Fernandez now or later. These are guys you can build a franchise around, and they’re a joy to watch every fifth day.

But even if you support flipping these young aces, patience is the operative word. There will come a time when a Harvey and/or Fernandez deal makes sense. That time isn’t now.

 

All statistics and contract information current as of Nov. 30 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Denard Span: Latest News, Rumors and Speculation Surrounding Free-Agent OF

Despite coming off an injury-plagued 2015 season, free-agent outfielder Denard Span figures to draw plenty of interest on the open market as a proven top-of-the-order hitter who can play center field. 

Continue for updates.


Orioles Reportedly Interested in Span

Sunday, Nov. 29

According to Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports, the Baltimore Orioles are “among the teams with some level of interest in” Span.

Kubatko did not expand on what “some level of interest” means, though he did add there are “supporters” in the Orioles organization who view Span as a possible option for right field. 

The Orioles aren’t in the market for a center fielder, with Adam Jones under contract through 2018, but right field was a problem area for the team last season, and Span could upgrade the position:

Span’s numbers look even better when you factor in that he played only 61 games, though his injury history is an issue a team will have to consider when deciding how much to offer the 31-year-old. 

Given Span’s age and the time he missed last year, moving him away from center field to a less-demanding defensive position could help him get back to playing 140 to 150 games in a season while posting a high batting average and on-base percentage.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Jordan Zimmermann’s $110M Deal Is Good Move to Kick Off Tigers’ Latest Revamp

Last winter, the Washington Nationals signed a front-line starter away from the Detroit Tigers. On Sunday, the Tigers returned the favorand kicked off their latest revamp in earnest.

Last year it was Max Scherzer who went from the Motor City to the nation’s capital. Now, Jordan Zimmermann is leaving D.C. for Detroit after reportedly reaching an agreement for a five-year, $110 million deal, per ESPN:

And so, after weeks of waiting, the first big free-agent domino has fallen. At last, we’ve got something more than whispers and speculation to fuel the hot stove.

To be fair, this isn’t the first move the Tigers have made. The club has already signaled its intent to be active under new general manager Al Avila, swinging trades for reliever Francisco Rodriguez and outfielder Cameron Maybin.

Inking Zimmermann, though, is a clear signal the Tigers intend to restock and take aim at an immediate return to relevance after suffering through their first losing season since 2008.

The 29-year-old right-hander isn’t the shiniest pitcher on the market; that title belongs to either David Price or Zack Greinke, depending on your persuasion. But he’s an ace-level talent and has been one of the game’s most durable, reliable arms in recent years.

Zimmermann’s ERA climbed to 3.66 in 2015 from a career-best 2.66 mark in 2014. But he eclipsed 200 innings for the second time in three seasons. Indeed, as ESPN.com‘s Jerry Crasnick noted, he’s tossed more frames over the past four seasons than any National League pitcher not named Madison Bumgarner or Clayton Kershaw. 

And he ended last season on a strong note, pitching at least into the sixth inning in 13 of his final 14 starts, though he did yield six earned runs in two games over that stretch.

In seven seasons, all with the Nats, Zimmermann owns a 3.32 ERA with 903 strikeouts in 1,094 innings and has made two All-Star teams.

Now, he joins a rotation that desperately needed a boost. After losing Scherzer last winter and Price at the July trade deadline, Detroit’s starters finished with the worst ERA in the American League last year.

Justin Verlander, whose declining velocity and effectiveness have knocked him off the ace perch, gave the Zimmermann signing his stamp of approval:

Detroit can cross its fingers for a rebound from Verlander and fellow fallen stud Anibal Sanchez and the emergence of young left-hander Daniel Norris (age 22). But Zimmermann adds a needed piece. He alone won’t get the Tigers back to the top of the AL Central, a position now owned by the reigning World Series champion Kansas City Royals. But it’s a good start.

Assuming the offensive core of Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Victor Martinez has something left in the tank, the Tigers aren’t far from relevance. 

And while the Zimmermann deal could well be the biggest splash of the offseason for Detroit, it’s reasonable enough to allow for more moves. As CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman noted, “Tigers owner Mike Ilitch never has been afraid to spend.”

In fact, while still plenty robust, the five years and $110 million Zimmermann got fall short of the six years and $126 million predicted by MLB Trade Rumors’ Tim Dierkes. And Dierkes’ projection didn’t feel like a reach. 

The biggest worry with Zimmermann, besides his slight dip in performance, is the Tommy John surgery he underwent in 2009. Despite his recent durability, there was concern on Washington’s end, as Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post outlined:

The life expectancy of a “second elbow” after Tommy John surgery is thought by some in baseball to be about eight years. One of the teams that believes it, not as dogma but as an important rule of thumb, is the Washington Nationals. …

[Fear] of “TJS2” is part of why Zimmermann is leaving after 2015. He’s starting his sixth season of pitching with his “new” elbow.

It’s all guesswork, of course. Injuries are an inexact science. But it’s possible questions about his elbow cost Zimmermann that additional year and/or a few million bucks.

Either way, he’s signed. He’s well-paid. Free-agent season is officially (finally!) in swing. And the Tigers are back on the road to contention. 

“My only regret is that we were not able to bring a championship to the fans of this great city this season,” Zimmermann wrote in a farewell message to Nats fans, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.

It won’t come easy. It never does. But he’ll get another chance in a new locale as the revamp continues in Detroit.

 

All statistics current as of Nov. 29 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


3 Perfect Buyer-and-Seller Partners on the MLB Offseason Trade Market

We’ve already seen a handful of significant MLB trades this offseason, and there’s plenty more action on tap with the winter meetings right around the corner.

Fewer teams are willing to fully commit to the idea of rebuilding or selling off key pieces these days because the presence of the second wild card has opened the door for more contenders.

It’s still likely, however, that a number of blockbuster deals will get made between now and Opening Day.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at three potential buyer-and-seller partners that appear to be perfect matches.

Of course, there are plenty of teams with the right assets to be factors in the trade market. But for the purposes of this article, we were looking for three pairs of teams that complement each other’s needs and should be interested in making deals.

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Jordan Zimmermann to Tigers: Latest Contract Details, Comments, Reaction

The Detroit Tigers’ first major move of the offseason is upon us. The Tigers and starter Jordan Zimmermann have reportedly agreed to a contract expected to be for five years and in the range of $110 million, according to Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi and CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman on Sunday.  

Detroit went on to confirm the deal Monday. Heyman noted Tuesday that Zimmermann received a full no-trade clause for three years, which will have a list of 10 teams that he can be traded to. Heyman added the clause was “key” for Zimmerman, who wants to settle down with his family.

On Tuesday, Heyman provided a full financial breakdown of Zimmermann’s deal:

An All-Star two of the past three seasons, Zimmermann went 13-10 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 2015. While he was expected to command a long-term deal heading into free agency, Zimmermann remained underrated enough that his deal was never expected to rise to Max Scherzer levels. He spent each of his first seven MLB seasons with the Nationals, emerging as a beloved figure in the nation’s capital.

“It’s difficult putting into words the feelings of appreciation I have for the love and support I’ve felt over the past seven years,” Zimmermann said in a tweet by his agent, Mark Pieper. “The same level of commitment and passion that you fans showed me every game I took the ball is what I placed in every pitch I tossed wearing a Nationals uniform.”

The Tigers were also attracted to Zimmermann’s consistency. Since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2009, he’s bounced back with stellar results. He has made at least 32 starts each of the previous four seasons, coming back a much stronger overall pitcher.

Detroit will hope he can continue that trajectory going forward. After taking four straight American League Central crowns, the Tigers nosedived to last place and a 74-87 record. The pitching staff fell apart without Scherzer, ranking 28th in earned run average, 27th in WHIP and tied for 21st in quality starts. Justin Verlander and David Price, the latter of whom was traded midseason, were the only Tigers starters (min. 20 starts) with ERAs under 4.99.

All of that made Zimmermann an attractive candidate, especially given the club’s desire to get back in the division race.

The Nationals were always unlikely to re-sign Zimmermann because they have a glut of arms and were eventually going to make a difficult decision about one of their stars. Even with a large spending budget, inking long-term deals for Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister seemed infeasible. Zimmermann especially seemed to be a likely target to move when the Nats shocked the baseball world by signing Scherzer to a seven-year deal. 

Allowing Zimmermann to walk frees some long-term cash and allows the Nationals to plot their course going forward. We’ll just have to see if the risk of losing his consistency comes with a reward.

 

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Johnny Cueto: Latest News, Rumors, Speculation Surrounding Free-Agent SP

Even in a market loaded with talented starting pitchers, Kansas City Royals starter Johnny Cueto is sure to generate plenty of suitors as teams look to bolster their rotations this winter.

Continue for updates.


Multiple Teams Pursuing Cueto

Monday, Nov. 30

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported that Cueto has received calls from the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs and others.

Heyman added that “the market still favors Cueto and he isn’t about to rush into anything.”


Cueto’s Contract Demands Revealed

Monday, Nov. 30

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reported that clubs in Cueto’s market believe the pitcher is seeking a deal in the $140-160 million range. Crasnick added that a deal of that value would put him in the range of Cole Hamels and Jon Lester’s deals.


Diamondbacks Reportedly Offered Cueto 6-Year Contract

Monday, Nov. 30

According to Steve Gilbert of MLB.com, Cueto turned down a six-year, $120 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Crasnick reported that chief baseball officer Tony La Russa, general manager Dave Stewart and club president Derrick Hall all went to the Dominican Republic to make the pitch to Cueto.

Earlier in the day, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported that the Diamondbacks met with Cueto’s agent, Bryce Dixon. 


Cueto Looking to Cash in After Up-and-Down Season

Cueto, 29, had an interesting 2015 season. He went 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 120 strikeouts in 130.2 innings pitched with the Cincinnati Reds before being traded to the Royals, where he struggled somewhat, going 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 56 strikeouts in 13 starts.

He had an up-and-down postseason as well, going 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in four starts, though he did pitch brilliantly in Game 2 of the World Series against the New York Mets, giving up just two hits and a run in a complete-game 7-1 win. 

Cueto was one of the National League’s most consistent aces in recent years, so his struggles in Kansas City came as something of a surprise. But his dominance in the World Series was a reminder of his prowess, and plenty of teams would love to add a starter with his track record to the rotation.

With David Price and Zack Greinke likely to set the free-agent market for starting pitchers, Cueto is in line for a major payday.

 

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Key Takeaways from Week 3 of MLB Hot Stove Chatter

Not even Thanksgiving can stop the Hot Stove fires from burning. The rumor mill is back to spinning at full speed after taking a break for some turkey and stuffing, fueling speculation on multiple fronts. Some of it has been team-specific, while some has been more widespread.

We’ll look at some of that speculation and try to read between the lines, bringing you the most notable takeaways from the Hot Stove League’s third week of action.

Let’s get started.

 

David Price Won’t Be Returning to Toronto

If you want to believe J.A. Happ’s three-year, $36 million deal with Toronto doesn’t signal the end of whatever slim chance existed for David Price to stick in Toronto, that’s fine. When you consider the comments made by Blue Jays general manager Tony LaCava after signing Happ (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet), it’s easy to keep the dream alive.

But when you take a step back and look at Toronto’s current rotation options, it’s clear Toronto is preparing for LAP—Life After Price.

R.A. Dickey, Marco Estrada, Happ and Marcus Stroman are all locks to be in the rotation, leaving one spot for Jesse Chavez and Drew Hutchison to battle it out for. That competition for the No. 5 spot in the rotation could expand to include youngsters Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez, who pitched in relief.

That’s a lot of arms and, if the Jays continue to add pitchers to the mix, as LaCava says they will, it leaves little room for a pitcher the caliber of Price, who figures to sign a deal that pays him in excess of $25 million a season. Speaking of big paydays…

 

The “Big Money Bats” Will Have to Wait for Chris Davis

Baseball’s most prolific home run hitter over the past four seasons, Chris Davis has been the center of the rumor mill’s attention when it comes to the big money bats available via free agency, a group that includes Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton.

While Heyward may be in a different category than the rest of the field due to his youth and exceptional defense—many believe he’ll command a deal in excess of $200 million—we’ve heard little more than a peep about the futures of Cespedes and Upton.

Their markets won’t begin to materialize until after Davis signs a new pact, one that MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko notes has elicited “projections of six- and seven-year deals ranging from $144 million to $182 million.”

Even if Davis winds up on the low end of those projections, the other big bats may not find a GM willing to offer a Davis-like pact, because…

 

Teams Might Be Learning From Past Mistakes

We touched on this briefly this week in “Fact or Fiction,” calling shenanigans on the notion that free-agent starter Wei-Yin Chen was indeed a pitcher worthy of an annual salary exceeding $20 million.

Sources told Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi that Chen’s agent, Scott Boras, will point to the four-year, $82.5 million extension Rick Porcello signed with Boston before the 2015 season as the reason for that notion. And Boras isn’t necessarily wrong—Chen is the superior talent.

But just because one team made a mistake—Porcello was a disaster for the Red Sox last season—doesn’t mean others are in a rush to follow suit. Consider these four free-agent pacts, all signed in the past few years:

The Angels ultimately paid the Rangers to take Hamilton back, while Cano, Choo and Ellsbury have all failed to live up to expectations. Other teams are absolutely aware of that, and the mediocre return on investment those players have delivered will certainly factor into their approach this offseason.

There’s no foolproof way to avoid a bad deal other than to sit out free agency altogether, and that’s simply not an option for most teams. And it’s true that those four players don’t represent the first bad deals that teams have agreed to. It’s happened before, and it will happen again.

But with the continued increase in the size of these deals—both in terms of length and money—more teams could begin to decide that the risk outweighs the reward, that they’d prefer not to lock up such a sizable chunk of current and future payroll in a veteran player who may not ever live up to expectations.

While there’s little doubt the best talent available on this year’s free-agent market is going to be paid well, it may not be for nearly as much as they—or anyone else—believes they’re worth.

 

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot’s Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).

Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Hanley Ramirez Trade Rumors: Latest News, Speculation Surrounding Red Sox LF

Hanley Ramirez, after just one season with the Boston Red Sox, could be on the move again this offseason.

Continue for updates.


Ramirez Reportedly on the Trade Block

Sunday, Nov. 29

According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, “there’s now talk in the front office that [president of baseball operations] Dave Dombrowski is trying to move Ramirez in a deal. The Mariners, Orioles and Angels seem to be the targets, and all three make sense.”

As Cafardo noted, however, several hurdles stand in the way of any potential move. For starters, the 31-year-old is still owed $68 million over the duration of his contract, and Cafardo expects the Red Sox will have to eat “at least half” of that money. 

Ramirez’s position is also a concern, as Cafardo reported all three teams interested in the former All-Star see him as a designated hitter, though he might be able to play third base. Ramirez’s weight may play a factor there, however—Cafardo noted that the Red Sox want him to lose 20 pounds—as would an injury history that has seen him miss 91 games over the past two years. 

After a failed experiment as a left fielder last season, Ramirez is expected to transition to first base for the Red Sox should he remain with the team. He certainly still has pop at the plate, as he hit .249 with 19 home runs and 53 RBI in 108 games last season, though he also produced a dreadful .283 on-base percentage. And with David Ortiz set to retire after the 2016 season, Ramirez could transition to the designated hitter role after this year. 

In other words, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Red Sox held onto Ramirez. Eating half of his salary may be too big a pill to swallow, especially if the team can carve out a role for him as a first baseman and future designated hitter. He can still produce at the dish, though Boston will want to see his batting average and on-base percentage improve after disappointing numbers in those categories last year.

 

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Identifying 5 MLB Free Agents Who Should Be Bust-Proof

Little to nothing is guaranteed in Major League Baseball. That includes player production, and especially when you are counting on it for an extended block of time.

That is why signing free agents to huge deals for hundreds of millions of dollars—or even tens of millions—is such a risky and unpredictable proposition for all 30 front offices. The long-term mega contracts always have a realistic chance of busting. It’s the nature of people; it’s the nature of the baseball business.

But on the open market, you have to pay those uncomfortable prices, which include years and in some cases draft picks, to get the player.

This offseason’s free-agent class is rich. There is power, there is defense, there is bullpen help and there is an abundance of starting pitching, with a couple of top-tier arms, some second-level ones and even more below that. Whatever need a club might have, it can cure it for the right price.

The concern with such deals is the player staying productive long enough to live up to the contract. But every year it seems there is a small group of players who appear destined to fulfill expectations. This offseason we can pick out a handful of players on the market who seem to be bust-proof, even with long-term, relatively big-money contracts to their names.

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