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Sometimes, it’s not the blockbuster trade but a seemingly insignificant one that winds up paying the most dividends for a contender down the stretch. 

While the rumor mill is heating up in regards to the biggest names expected to be available as the trade deadline nears, much of the chatter is redundant. There’s only one Cole Hamels, for example, so while there might be a dozen teams that Philadelphia’s ace is linked to, only one is going to get him.

It’s the players whom the rumor mill isn’t paying quite as much attention to that we’ll focus on this week, a group that includes former All-Stars, a future Hall of Fame inductee and some solid but underwhelming veterans.

It’s important to remember that the teams we’d classify as buyers won’t be the only clubs in the running to acquire a given player’s services, so the packages proposed are not only geared toward being fair to both sides, but also to ensure that the seller takes a buyer’s offer over the competition’s.

Additionally, keep in mind that these proposed deals are only ideas and pure speculation. Unless otherwise noted, there’s no indication that any of them have actually been discussed.

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The All-Star Game is July 14 and the Oakland A’s have several quality candidates that could head to Cincinnati to represent the American League.

Unfortunately, fan voting seems like it will knock out many of those candidates, from Oakland and many other teams, in place of much less deserving players. Because of that, the likelihood the A’s send more than a player or two are slim.

Despite that, and a losing record, Oakland has three solid options, with three fringe players that wouldn’t be terrible injury replacements.

Fringe Guys

I’m not saying these guys should go. I’m saying these guys could go if there is a lack of better options, and they wouldn’t be terrible picks.

Marcus Semien has a slim chance of making the team, but it’d have to be as a replacement.

He currently has the third-most votes among AL shortstops. Stats-wise, he’s hot on Alcides Escobar‘s tail (Escobar leads votes). The two are neck and neck in hits, runs, doubles and stolen bases. Semien walks more, but strikes out more. He hits more home runs. Escobar has the RBI total.

Josh Reddick is in the hunt but faces an even tougher challenge.

He currently has the 10th-most votes among outfielders. Yet, he has the eighth-best batting average of AL outfielders. I know, I know, batting average isn’t the best stat. For what it’s worth, he has the second-most RBI, too.

I imagine the starting pitchers in the discussion to represent the American League include a guy on this list, Dallas Keuchel, Chris Archer and David Price at the top. Felix Hernandez will be up there too, because, well, he’s Felix Hernandez.

Down the line is Scott Kazmir.

Among those with at least 90 innings pitched, Kazmir has the seventh-best ERA in the American League. He’s also hanging around in WHIP and FIP (Fangraphs). He’s too far removed to be in the discussion as a top-five guy, but he might crack the top-10 and make the team if guys toward the top drop out.

3. Jesse Chavez

Jesse Chavez is more deserving than Scott Kazmir. Hear me out.

As a starter, Chavez is right there. His 2.91 FIP is eighth best in the AL. His 3.02 ERA is 10th best. His 2.1 WAR is ninth best. But his HR/9 numbers are at the top in terms of lowest.

Here’s the kicker.

Throw in the six innings he pitched as a reliever. From the bullpen, Chavez kept a 0.00 ERA, struck out nine and walked one.

Hence, because of his versatility, because he can pitch virtually any time in any role, he’s a valuable asset for the American League team. He’s a top-10 starting pitcher and he hasn’t been scored on as a reliever in a small sample size this season. (Though we know on a larger scale he is in fact effective out of the pen.)

It seems like a smart move to include him on the roster.

2. Stephen Vogt

As CSN’s Brodie Brazil pointed out June 21, Stephen Vogt was ahead of leading vote-getter Salvador Perez in multiple categories. Today it still holds true, albeit in home runs, where Perez and Vogt are tied. Vogt‘s WAR is 2.8 compared to Perez’s 1.3. His .335 BABIP blows Perez’s .273 away.

Kansas City fans stuffed the ballot boxes, so it’s going to be difficult for Vogt to overtake Perez, but he can definitely make the All-Star Game as a backup catcher.

The only other two guys close are Russell Martin and Brian McCann.

Vogt isn’t just making a case for himself against fellow catchers only, either. His batting average is 11th best in the American League. He’s in the top 10 for walks and RBI as well.

While it seems like Vogt should be the starter, the next guy leaves no doubt he’s deserving.

1. Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray is hands down the best candidate to be the A’s representative at the All-Star Game.

As of this writing, he leads the American League in ERA. His 2.68 FIP is fourth in the AL. His 3.9 WAR is second only to Dallas Keuchel‘s 4.1. Gray’s 0.99 WHIP is fourth in the AL as well. 

Of 16 starts, 12 have been quality starts.

But not only is Gray pitching well generally speaking, he’s pitching at such a high caliber that many consider him the front-runner to start for the American League at the All-Star Game.

On June 3, David Schoenfield of ESPN said Gray should start. According to Matt Kawahara of the Sacramento Bee, Stephen Vogt agrees:

Doesn’t matter what he does between now and the All-Star Game. The first half Sonny’s had and the way our team’s been playing, with our record … Sonny Gray is 100 percent an All-Star, if not the starting pitcher of the All-Star Game, in my opinion.

Gray’s last two starts have been ugly. If that trend continues, he’ll likely go to the game, but not start. However, if he “returns to form” for lack of better words, it’d be disappointing if he didn’t start.

We’ll see how it shakes out.

I’d guess Gray and Vogt are locks. Chavez is iffy and the rest don’t make it.

All stats courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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As the MLB season approaches the midway mark, it’s time to break out the red pen and grade all 30 clubs, from the surging Washington Nationals to the last-place Boston Red Sox.

In the process of writing up report cards, the most important factor was each club’s win-loss record. At the same time, how a team has either exceeded or fallen short of its preseason expectations was also a critical consideration. That’s good news for a team like the Houston Astros and a bummer for a squad like the Red Sox.

Finally, teams were also judged on how well they’ve navigated the injury issues that have cropped up in the opening months of the campaign. For the likes of the San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays, that means both teams earned high marks.

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He’s coming back. Whisper it, sing it, shout it from the mountaintop—Jose Fernandez of the Miami Marlins, arguably the most exciting young arm in baseball, is about to pitch in a big league game for the first time in more than a year. 

This season has given us an avalanche of burgeoning stars: Kris Bryant, Noah Syndergaard, Joey Gallo, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, among others. So it’s easy to get distracted, to forget what Fernandez meant and, more importantly, what he could mean.

The Marlins right-hander has been MIA since May 2014, an eternity in our modern, what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world.

Allow us to refresh your memory. Or, actually, just go ahead and watch this:

That’s filth, cheddar, gas—pick your ham-fisted metaphor. Fernandez has the stuff to be the best pitcher in the game—no hyperbole—and he’s only 22 years old.

In fact, those highlights up there are from 2013, when he broke in as a 20-year-old wunderkind and wound up winning Rookie of the Year honors with a 2.19 ERA and 187 strikeouts in 172.2 innings.

Entering the 2014 campaign, it was worth wondering whether Fernandez would knock Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw off of his Cy Young pedestal. Or, as Sports Illustrated‘s Cliff Corcoran put it in August 2013, “[If] this is how he pitches as a raw rookie after having just two months to adjust to making the leap from High-A to the majors, how good is he going to be next year?”

Unfortunately, those sky-high expectations crashed to Earth when Fernandez went down after eight starts with a torn ulnar collateral ligament and had to undergo Tommy John surgery. 

It’s a familiar tale. Right in Fernandez’s division, the National League East, you’ll find two other emerging studs who ran the Tommy John gauntlet: Matt Harvey of the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals‘ Stephen Strasburg.

The good news for Fernandez and the Marlins is that both Harvey and Strasburg returned strong.  

That said, even elite hurlers usually face an adjustment period coming back from Tommy John. ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin cited data collected by Dr. Glenn Fleisig, research director at the American Sports Medicine Institute, that shows 80 percent of pitchers successfully return to the big leagues after the increasingly common procedure but typically take six months to hit their stride.

Fernandez’s final rehab tuneup Saturday for Double-A Jacksonville offered encouraging but imperfect results, per CBS Sports‘ Jason Lempert: 5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 8 SO.

Don’t ask folks in South Beach to temper their expectations, though.

Not after suffering through a disappointing season, during which the Marlins have limped to a 31-46 record entering play Tuesday.

Not after a head-scratching managerial saga that saw Mike Redmond kicked to the curb in favor of Dan Jennings, who stepped down from the general manager’s office with zero pro coaching experience.

Not with Giancarlo Stanton sidelined for four to six weeks with a broken hamate bone.

When Fernandez takes the hill Thursday at Marlins Park, he’ll carry the last, best hope of Marlins fans with him. Surely they want—desperately—to see that guy, the one capable of carrying the franchise with his crackling high-90s fastball and golden right arm.

Surely it’s been agony for Fernandez to sit on the sideline, to get a tantalizing taste of MLB success and then be forced to watch the action like a common spectator. Now, however, on the eve of his comeback, he talks about the experience like a seasoned veteran.

“I feel like I’ve gotten a little better. Not only for pitching but for everything in life,” he told Craig Davis of the Sun Sentinel. “I’ve been following it for 13 months, so if I learned something, it’s how to be patient. It was much needed at my age.”

At long last, Fernandez gets to start learning lessons between the lines again. He gets to pull on a uniform, grab a sphere of cowhide, yarn and cork and try to throw it past the best hitters in the world.

He’s coming back, and that’s good news for us all.

All statistics current as of June 29 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. 

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The Boston Red Sox don’t have an ace starting pitcher. I’ve said it. Chances are you’ve probably said it as well. It’s been the consensus since, well, ever.

Clay Buchholz, however, begs to differ.

Buchholz made his 16th start of 2015 on Monday night against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre, and it went quite well. In pacing the Red Sox to a 3-1 victory, Buchholz allowed just one run on five hits in eight innings. He struck out five and walked nobody. MLB.com’s official Twitter feed highlighted his stats:

Now, the downside is that this victory only pushed Boston’s record to 35-43. The Red Sox are still a bad team, and the main reason for that is still their starting pitching. With a 4.71 ERA, Red Sox starters rank last in the American League.

But don’t look at that and then point your wagging finger at Buchholz. He’s doing his part to bring that number down, and in general he has been pitching better than you might think.

In 10 starts dating back to May 10, Buchholz has racked up a 2.33 ERA and 4.31 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69.2 innings. In doing so, he’s dropped his ERA from 6.03 to 3.48.

To be sure, an ERA like that doesn’t exactly jump off the page. But if you turn to the know-it-all geek stats at FanGraphs—those being FIP, xFIP and SIERA—they’ll tell you that Buchholz actually deserves an ERA that would put him among the American League’s 10 best pitchers:

The message here is that Buchholz has pitched better than his ERA indicates. And regarding that opinion, you don’t need to take it from a bunch of acronyms that look like they belong on a graphing calculator.

For one, there’s the fact that Buchholz’s ERA for the season would be 2.76 if you were to remove his early-season clunker (nine earned runs in 3.1 innings) at Yankee Stadium. Beyond that, there’s the fact that his 4.17 K/BB ratio is easily the best of his career. Even further beyond that, there’s the fact that he entered Monday’s start with a career-low 23.6 hard-hit rate.

In so many words: Buchholz’s season has been fantastic outside of a single bad start, and that makes sense in light of how he’s racking up strikeouts and limiting both walks and hard contact.

This, certainly, doesn’t sound anything like the enigma that Buchholz has so often been over the years. It almost sounds like he’s become a good pitcher.

Which, wouldn’t you know it, appears to be the case.

In fairness, the dominance Buchholz has flashed this season isn’t totally out of left field. The 30-year-old right-hander made a run at the American League Cy Young Award with a 2.33 ERA in 2010, and seemed to hit a peak with a 1.71 ERA through his first dozen starts of 2013 before injuries waylaid his season.

Ask the man himself, though, and he’ll say he’s pitching even better now than he was in the early portion of ’13. That’s what Alex Speier of the Boston Globe got out of him, anyway:

Speier has a full article in which Buchholz elaborated on the differences between 2015 and 2013, with the main and most important one being that he feels like he has complete control over his arsenal of pitches.

In Buchholz’s words:

I look back at 2013, there were a couple games where I had all my pitches working but I worked off fastball command and might have had a changeup that day or my curveball. But very rarely did I have all four or five working that day. It just doesn’t happen that often.

The last couple times out, I’ve had a really good feel for a strike curveball and a curveball I can throw in the dirt. Same thing with the changeup. I actually feel like I’m throwing a little better now than I did then in terms of having a feel for each pitch.

It’s admittedly not that easy to take all this and confirm it with numbers, but some things do check out.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball, Buchholz entered Monday throwing his four-seamer, sinker, cutter, curveball and changeup at least 14.8 percent of the time. That’s about as true of a five-pitch pitcher as a guy can be.

And yet, such a complex arsenal hasn’t negatively impacted Buchholz’s command. He went into Monday’s start throwing 48.1 percent of his pitches in the strike zone. That’s above his career rate of 45.5 percent and easily better than the rate of 42.5 percent he posted in 2013.

According to Baseball Savant, this is partially owed to the fact that 11.6 percent of Buchholz’s pitches are changeups and curveballs in the strike zone. That’s the highest rate he’s done that since 2011.

From here, there are more complicated roads we can go down. But the gist that Buchholz has very good command of a true five-pitch mix is not one that should be shrugged off with a “Great story, man.” There aren’t many pitchers who can say as much, and there’s probably no shortage of hitters who would tell you that five pitches plus command does not equal a comfortable at-bat.

But the single-biggest reason for Buchholz’s success this season? That might be his new-look changeup.

One thing Buchholz’s changeup has always had going for it is good velocity separation from that of his heater. And that’s still the case. He’s averaging 92 mph with his four-seamer and sinker this year and 80 mph with his changeup. That’s a difference of 12 mph, which is plenty to get a hitter out on his front foot.

But what Buchholz’s changeup has now that it didn’t before is lots of lateral movement. Eno Sarris of FanGraphs highlighted that in late May, and we can see it illustrated in this graph from Brooks Baseball:

See that big drop? That’s a changeup that once had very little arm-side run suddenly gaining a lot of it. Sarris has some GIFs that show it in action. So does Nick Pollack at PitcherList.com, who wrote that Buchholz’s changeup is his “best pitch and one that will keep the strikeouts alive.”

And he’s right about that. Entering Monday, Brooks Baseball says Buchholz’s changeup had accounted for 29 of his 91 strikeouts, easily the most of any of his pitches. Also, hitters were batting just .114 against it. Per Baseball Prospectus, that was the third-best mark among all changeups thrown by all starters.

So, Buchholz isn’t just a starter with very good command of a legit five-pitch mix. He’s that and a guy with one elite out pitch. That, friends, is a dangerous pitcher.

And all this, of course, helps explain why he’s suddenly in demand.

Whether the struggling Red Sox should trade Buchholz or keep him was the subject of Speier’s article. And according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, pitching-needy teams have their eyes on Buchholz. Rightfully so, as he comes with both talent and two more years of club control after 2015.

You have to think, however, that the Red Sox won’t deal Buchholz unless they’re really sure they’re out of the race. And if he keeps pitching like this, that’s a call they may not have to make.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have had a moderately successful 2015 thus far. They sit in first place in the National League West even though half of their Opening Day rotation is out for the year, Joc Pederson has been a breakout star and new additions Yasmani Grandal and Howie Kendrick have been valuable members of the lineup.

All has not been perfect, however. Jimmy Rollins has struggled, and the bullpen has suffered its fair share of injuries. The farm system appears to be well-equipped to handle this problem, though. With a series of high-strikeout arms and an elite shortstop, the Dodgers may be able to solve many of their problems internally.

Notes: The following list is courtesy of MLB.com. Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and are current through June 28.

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Before the season, I could’ve written down the names of the Washington Nationals‘ five starting pitchers and it would have only been a slight exaggeration to submit that as a list of the team’s top five All-Star Game candidates. 

But with the game just two weeks away, the Nationals’ rotation is only likely to send one representative to Cincinnati. 

A list of Washington’s potential All-Stars reads much like the script of the Nats’ season as a whole. The starting pitchers are, for the most part, nowhere to be found, and several other players have maxed out their potential to pick up the slack. 

If Bryce Harper failed to put up All-Star numbers for the first half of the season, there would’ve been No. 34 jerseys burning in the streets of D.C. in frustration. But he did, so there aren’t.

The more unlikely candidates come in the form of an aging center fielder who began the season on the DL and a newcomer who’s played out of his natural position for the entirety of his short Nationals career. 

With fan voting determining the starting position of players, Washington is essentially guaranteed to have one starter come July 14 after the latest update revealed Harper is more than five million votes clear of the next closest outfielder. 

But the players and the managers get their voices heard next, when they name the All-Star pitchers and fill out the bench. And that’s where the Nationals can earn the most All-Star nods. 

Five Nats have a shot to join the NL roster at the Midsummer Classic. Here they are, ranked for your convenience, based on likelihood of selection. 

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The Cincinnati Reds‘ season hasn’t quite gone the way the team and fans had hoped, but even despite having a losing record, the 2015 MLB All-Star Game hosts have several players who have made a strong bid to play in the Midsummer Classic.

No Cincinnati position player is in line to start this year’s All-Star Game. However, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a deserving candidate, like third baseman Todd Frazier.

Regardless of whether or not the Reds have a starter in the game shouldn’t matter. The team is guaranteed to have at least one player selected to the National League team, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see the hosts get three players on the squad.

Keep reading to find out which Reds players have made the best case to represent Cincinnati at the Midsummer Classic.

*All stats are via MLB.com. On Monday, the Reds tweeted out the latest NL voting update.

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Monday marked the 2015 MLB All-Star Game’s sixth voting update for both leagues, and the race between baseball’s prominent prodigies in Mike Trout and Bryce Harper continues to be a fascinating focal point.

Per MLB Communications, Trout has a narrow lead over Harper, with both claiming over 11 million votes as their respective leagues’ leading outfielders entering the final week to cast ballots:    

The duo will garner comparisons as long as they are playing, which figures to be over another decade or longer.

Trout is having another sensational season in center field for the Los Angeles Angels, and the massive market he plays in can only help his vote total. Although Harper hasn’t really found his groove until this year, he really is starting to live up to the massive hype that’s surrounded him since he arrived in the MLB.

This graphic from Fox Sports: MLB illustrates how Harper has improved in just about every conceivable area in 2015—and how he stacks up with Trout in some categories:

Another big development from Monday saw Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson emerge as the leading vote-getter. ESPN Stats & Info added context for how valuable Donaldson has been to Toronto amid a tight divisional race:

Kansas City Royals fans are making their presence known, even with Donaldson passing Mike Moustakas for current starting honors at third. Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star reacted to the release in that context:

While Harper’s vote lead in the National League is tremendous over No. 2 outfielder Giancarlo Stanton—and figures to grow since the Miami Marlins star has a fractured hand—K.C. has an undeniable presence at every single position.

The gap between Trout and two Royals outfielders in Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon isn’t nearly as big as the margin from Harper to Stanton, shining as a prime example of Kansas City’s voting success.

A rather miraculous run to last year’s World Series is proving not to be a fluke. The Royals sit atop the AL standings at the moment, and the club’s official Twitter account is certainly proud of its All-Star campaign:

With five All-Star starters currently in place, the AL figures to be well-represented at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati by its current top team.

The Royals figure to continue asserting their will with an aggressive pre-All-Star PR blitz. Other AL fanbases will have to start voting in droves to see their favorite players crack the starting lineup. At least the Blue Jays created a stir ahead of the final week with Donaldson’s rise.

Turnout simply hasn’t been the same for the NL. Harper’s likely to retain his status as the top vote-getter, but there figures to be plenty of suspense as the tight races for the outfield slots and third base heat up.

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The 2015 MLB All-Star Game is taking place July 14 in Cincinnati. Fan voting for the starting lineups wraps up this week. There is still some time to get votes submitted for your favorite Los Angeles Angels players. However, only a few have a real shot at playing in the game this year.

Each team is required to receive at least one participant because of an asinine rule. Outside of that, an All-Star berth comes down to popularity and production. Here are the Angels’ top candidates to be named an All-Star in order of likelihood.

1) Mike Trout

No surprise here, as Trout leads all American League players in WAR.

2) Albert Pujols

A number of weeks ago, I wrote a Bold Predictions column in which I said Pujols would make the All-Star team. While most of the other predictions from that piece seem foolish now, this one I nailed.

Pujols has been on an absolute tear since May. He’s hit 20 home runs in the last two months alone. He has a 1.142 OPS during the month of June. He is even now up to second in the AL in WAR among first basemen. After such a shaky beginning to the season, Pujols is inarguably the team’s second-best player and is deserving of that All-Star bid that seemed so bold to predict just six weeks ago.

3) Huston Street

Sadly for Los Angeles fans, after Trout and Pujols, there is a real drop before the team’s third-best candidate. Street is that guy, but his chances of making the team are no sure thing.

Street is third in the AL with 21 saves. His peripherals also stack up nicely with his positional counterparts. The problem is there are a number of non-closers who have been much better than Street this year.

Dellin Betances and Wade Davis (besides picking up saves as injury replacements) have been untouchable middle relievers. The same goes for lesser names like Evan Scribner (41-to-3 strikeout-to-walk rate) or Darren O’Day.

The saves may get Street into the game anyway. Despite the progressive nature of baseball fans, that stat still matters in many circles.

4) Hector Santiago

The last player in Anaheim with any chance of making the All-Star game is Hector Santiago, and he likely doesn’t have much of a chance.

Santiago has been the team’s best starting pitcher this season and has solid figures across the board. Little else makes him a realistic All-Star, however. His record is just 4-4 in 15 starts and he’s given up 13 home runs this season.

Most pressing is the fact that there are simply too many elite arms in baseball right now.

His 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings mark is very good for a starting pitcher, but it puts him 13th in the AL this season among qualified pitchers. His 1.13 walks and hits per innings pitched (WHIP) is also superb, but it doesn’t even put him in the top half-dozen among AL starters.

Santiago has had a good year, but it won’t likely be good enough to make the team. The mediocre play of the Angels will hurt him, as will his manager’s propensity to rejigger the rotation to save arms. It may be the smart play, but it doesn’t come off positively when your manager skips your turn in the rotation.

At 39-37 this season, Los Angeles has had a sloppy year. Getting four players into the All-Star Game is a little too much to ask. The Angels are guaranteed one All-Star and could potentially have more. That’s not too bad.

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