Archive for May, 2015

Let’s Look at This Cute Baseball Baby Staying Warm at the Giants Game

Baseball babies are probably the gnarliest babies.

Not that there’s anything inherently better about baseball, but babies at baseball games so often seem to unwittingly find themselves in wild situations.

They dangle in front of dad, not blinking an eye as a sea of arms converge on a baseball flying toward their face. Once the baseball is theirs, they lick it or throw it back. They’re objectively great babies.

So it came as no surprise to see another hardcore baseball baby in the stands watching the Atlanta Braves get smacked around by the San Francisco Giants on a chilly night at AT&T Park on Thursday.

Cut4 posted a GIF of the child, who was weathering the cold and his Braves’ 7-0 shellacking by chilling in his father’s jersey like a papoose. He’s not bothered. He’s just bobbing his head to the good vibes of the Bay Area.

Solid baseball baby? Solid baseball baby.

 

Dan is on Twitter. Baseball babies stay winning.

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Updated American League East Power Rankings

We’re through roughly 50 games of the 2015 MLB season, and the biggest surprise in baseball might be in the American League East.

It’s funny to call the New York Yankees a “surprise” when they’re succeeding, but given their recent history and roster limitations, not many figured they’d be leading the AL East at this point.

But where do they rank in the division power rankings? Find out as Stephen Nelson and Scott Miller run down the list.

 

All stats current as of May 29, 2015.

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Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 8’s Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice

What good is a fantasy owner who lacks a sense of timing?

Fantasy baseballjust like the real thingis a game of skill, luck and timing. That last trait in particular comes in handy in regard to getting value in the trading game.

Knowing which player(s) to trade away and which to deal for—and knowing just the right time to do so—can make all the difference.

After all, it doesn’t get much better than making a move to unload a hot flavor-of-the-week type who’s about to cool off in exchange for a slumping stud who’s ready to take off.

Now, speaking of timing, let’s get to some players to sell high and buy low.

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Re-Evaluating the Cincinnati Reds’ Top Draft Picks from the Past Decade

It’s what’s on the agenda when a team is eight games under .500 and 11.5 games out of first before June. Because a Reds rebuild seems all but certain with ace Johnny Cueto playing in the final year of his contract, it’s time to assess what’s worked and what’s in store.

What has Walt Jocketty assembled in the last seven seasons, and what did previous general manager Wayne Krivsky leave him with? The following is a list of the Reds’ first-round draft picks from the past decade:

 

2005: Jay Bruce, OF

Has time snuck up on you too? Jay Bruce was drafted 12th overall that year and was widely considered the future. He was called up to replace Corey Patterson in the early part of 2008 after hitting above .300 across three minor league levels in 2007.

Did he go on to become the Reds’ future? The term’s subjective—after all, it was Bruce’s looping swing that ended the playoff drought and brought the Reds back for the first time in a decade. It’s hard to argue that he became the face of this franchise—Joey Votto or Johnny Cueto may have thoughts on that matter—but there’s no denying he’s contributed in a big way.

His rookie season, he finished No. 5 overall in Rookie of the Year voting, he’s a three-time All-Star with two Silver Slugger awards, and he finished No. 10 in MVP voting two years straight (’12-’13).

He’s a career .250/.323/.486 but has 571 RBI and 189 home runs. In now his eighth year, Bruce has only hit fewer than 20 home runs once—last year, a year that featured arthroscopic knee surgery.

Despite a lengthy slump, there is no denying how prolific Bruce has been to a playoff roster. This was a successful pick by Krivsky. Considering his contract and the Reds’ oncoming fire sale, it’s likely we’ll see the end of the Bruce era here. He’s likely to fetch a good return, especially if his recent hot streak continues.

 

2006: Drew Stubbs, OF

Believe it or not, Stubbs was the eighth overall pick that year. He ended up debuting with the Reds in 2009 as the Reds were assembling their new product post-Griffey-Dunn Era, ripe with high draft picks.

In a lot of ways, Stubbs contributed—his defense in center was good, and averaging nearly 30 stolen bases and over 12 home runs a season was good. But power aside, Stubbs was not a good hitter. His OBP was never higher than .329; .255 was the highest average he’d have in four years—all of which are very forgettable, especially for a top-10 overall draft pick.

But Walt Jocketty turned Drew Stubbs into Shin-Soo Choo, a pivotal piece of the Reds’ 2013 playoff campaign. And for that, Stubbs proved even more useful.

 

2007: Devin Mesoraco C, Todd Frazier 3B, Kyle Lotzkar RHP

Can we universally agree the first two names from 2007 are successes? Both made the All-Star Game in 2014, and Frazier was a Home Run Derby for what it’s worth, the first Reds participant since Ken Griffey Jr.

But Frazier is currently No. 2 in NL home runs behind Bryce Harper. His career line in now his fourth season is .258/.328/.461, but there’s no denying the impact he’s had on the Reds offense. He’s had two good batting average years (.273 in ’12 and ’14) and two bad ones (.232 in ’11, .234 in ’13).

He’s one of the only notable acts happening at Great American Ball Park right now. Devin Mesoraco perhaps would be, but he can’t stay healthy. The young slugger has made it to the disabled list again after just 51 plate appearances.

For his career, he’s slashing an unimpressive .242/.313/.423. But Mesoraco has just two years since 2011 where he’s played in over 100 games. He was an All-Star last season, a season that featured a career-high 440 plate appearances.

Kyle Lotzkar came and went. This was a swing and miss of Jonny Gomes caliber. He never made it higher than Double-A, which is where he’s at now, within the Texas Rangers organization.

Thus ends the Krivsky portion of the re-evaluation. Time to see how Walt did.

 

2008: Yonder Alonso, 1B

Was Yonder Alonso a successful pick? Walt Jocketty turned him and two other first-round draft picks into Mat Latos, the key No. 2 in the rotation that earned the Reds the 2012 NL Central crown. He was also the pitcher who surrendered the deciding Buster Posey grand slam to end that season.

That was Latos’ most important pitch as a Red, but there’s no denying his three exceptional years in a Reds uniform, never finishing with an ERA above 3.48 and tossing over 200 innings twice.

 

2009: Mike Leake SP, Bradley Boxberger RHP

Despite Mike Leake’s recent struggles, this pick skipped the farm and went right to the pros after being drafted. He’s never been asked to be the ace, and prior to this season, he’s never had to play the role of a No. 2 guy. So his career 55-46 3.97 is a remarkable contribution.

Leake threw over 200 innings for the first time last year. He’s on pace to do it again this season. Should the Reds enter rebuild, Leake is a candidate for trade, but he’s also an extension candidate, especially if and when the Reds move Cueto and free themselves of enormous fiscal responsibility.

Bradley Boxberger was packaged with Alonso and one other to land Latos.


2010: Yasmani Grandal, C

Grandal was also moved in the package for Latos. Devin Mesoraco won the role of Reds future catcher in Cincinnati.

 

2011: Robert Stephenson, SP 

Baseball America‘s No. 1 Reds prospect and one of the Reds’ only two Top 100 MLB prospects (MLB.com), Stephenson has struggled mightily since reaching Double-A. In now his third Double-A season, the promising right-hander is 9-16 with a 4.87 ERA.

That’s not to say there isn’t serious potential here—there most assuredly is. In 39.1 innings pitched, Stephenson’s recorded 46 strikeouts. That’s serious. The problem is his control. He’s averaging 6.6 walks per nine innings. Command has plagued him since reaching Double-A, after he finished averaging seven walks per nine innings in 2013.

 

2012: Nick Travieso SP, Jesse Winker OF, Jeff Gelalich OF

Nick Travieso is developing fine as the Reds’ No. 8 prospect. He’s 2-4 with a 3.88 ERA and 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s just in High-A, so it’s unlikely we’ll see him anytime soon.

Jesse Winker is the other Top 100 MLB prospect the Reds are sitting on and the Reds’ No.3 prospect, according to Baseball America. Prior to his wrist injury last season, Winker was killing it. But since reaching Double-A last season, Winker is slashing .225/.341/.333.

That could be just due to a cold start—Winker did impress in the Arizona Fall League (hit .338). Still, there’s no reason to suggest he’s regressing or anything yet, not unless his averages remain like this for the whole season. 

Winker is considered by man to be the heir to Jay Bruce’s throne in left field. 

Jeff Gelalich is now in his fourth minor league season. He’s still hovering around High-A and is only slashing .240/.326/.332. This left-handed hitter is a working project, often displaying flashes of potential, but he lacks consistency. 

2013: Phillip Ervin OF, Michael Lorenzen SP

Ervin bats behind Gelalich for the High-A Daytona Tortugas. It’s the highest level of competition he’s seen, and thus far he is handling it fine, slashing .253/.338/.460 in 202 plate appearances. 

Ervin wasn’t listed as an organizational top prospect, but he’s coming off a poor season in Dayton, where he hit just .238.

Michael Lorenzen, the No. 4 organizational prospect, has been an incredible draft pick so far. Lorenzen was pitching in Double-A last season. He started this year in Triple-A, and following season-ending surgery for Bailey, he’s pitching in The Show and doing it well (1-1, 3.12).

2014: Nick Howard RHP, Alex Blandino SS

A closer in college, the Reds tried converting Howard to a starter, and prior to this season, it was looking like a good move. This season has been brutal for Howard, though, and following a bad stretch where he surrendered 10 earned runs in three starts and never made it out of the fourth inning, he was moved back to the bullpen.

After three scoreless appearances from the bullpen, Howard’s been roughed up. He’s sporting a 7.03 ERA and a WHIP over 2.00.

Alex Blandino, however, is performing well in the same lineup as Ervin and Gelalich. He’s slashing .319/.405/.448. Numbers like this make him an enticing heir to Zack Cozart’s throne.

Krisky’s last picks, minus Lotzkar, were all good. The jury is still out on Jocketty’s 12 picks. Three of the 12 became Latos, who ultimately became Anthony DeSclafani, so hard to knock those. Two of the 12 are currently in the Reds starting rotation. The other seven are in development, but none of them above Double-A.

Still, from a pitching stance, the pipeline seems stocked with future contributors, provided they make it.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-reference.com unless noted otherwise. Organizational rankings compliments of BaseballAmerica.com while Top-100 prospects come from MLB.com.

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Rebuilt Dodgers Still Need Pieces to Exorcise Their Cardinal Demons

The reasons for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ recent retooling are plentiful. 

For starters, they wanted a better overall team, from the bullpen to the offense to the defense to the bench. A better clubhouse atmosphere, one possibly more conducive to long-term winning, was another goal. Some financial flexibility going forward, even for a team with a record payroll, was also an advantage, as was clearing some of the old regime’s personnel for a front office increasingly trying to put its stamp on the entire roster.

So far, through 46 games, the Dodgers seem to have accomplished what they were after. For the most part.

But all the organization’s shuffling—front office and uniformed employees—was to accomplish one primary goal when history is written: win a World Series. Immediately.

Over the last two seasons, the St. Louis Cardinals have been the team stopping the Dodgers from doing so. Because of that, recent history is more important and hindering than traditional baseball beliefs for some players.

“I dream about them every day,” Dodgers superstar right fielder Yasiel Puig told reporters about the Cardinals during the offseason. “If we can beat them, we can win the World Series. We have to pass through them. They’re our principal rivals, not San Francisco, not anyone else.”

That quote obviously made headlines, especially with the San Francisco Giants, the Dodgers’ traditional rivals, winning their third World Series in the last five seasons last year. But Puig made a valid point.

While the Giants have championships, the Cardinals are the class of the league. They have made the postseason four straight seasons, knocking out the Dodgers in the last two. They’ve won two titles since 2006 thanks to a strong core of homegrown players and key trade and free-agent acquisitions.

They also go into their weekend series against the Dodgers with the best record in the majors, once again looking like the Senior Circuit’s team to beat.

“We can’t let them beat us three straight times. No way,” Puig continued, understanding the Dodgers led three postseasons games after six innings last fall but still lost to the Cardinals in four. “They’re a good team, and we all admire them. They have very good pitchers, very good players. If we beat them, we can win the World Series. We just have to get through them.”

The Dodgers’ remake, which included trading Matt Kemp (second in the majors in weighted runs created plus in the second half last season) and Dee Gordon (an All-Star second baseman), has them running well.

They go into the series tied for baseball’s third-best record, second in the NL. Their offense leads the league or is in the top five of several offensive categories. They have a starter vying to start the All-Star Game, and it’s not Clayton Kershaw. Their once-brutal bullpen, almost totally redone in the offseason, is arguably the best in the majors. Joc Pederson, the man who replaced Kemp in the outfield, is a strong front-runner for Rookie of the Year. 

“We have depth now,” manager Don Mattingly said. “We didn’t have that before. One guy gets hurt and the next guy is tearing down the door behind him. A guy gets hurt and someone else steps up.”

The Dodgers still might not be good enough to beat the Cardinals in another October fight. Despite their depth, they are a battered club with outfielders Puig and Carl Crawford on the disabled list with no timetable for their return and starters Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy out for the season. St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright is also lost for the year.

That is why they produce pitching matchups for their weekend in St. Louis that casual fans will not recognize.

What should have been a strength—the rotation—is now a significant concern for the Dodgers, and not because Clayton Kershaw has a 3.86 ERA. He actually leads the majors with a 2.13 expected FIP and is ninth in Fangraphs WAR despite an ERA that dipped under 4.00 just this past week.

While fill-in starter Mike Bolsinger has been impressive in four starts (0.71 ERA), the Dodgers’ new, normally tight-lipped front office has made no secret it is in the market for starting pitching.

“We’re actively vetting the market, doing everything we can to augment our depth,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. “Acquiring starting pitching depth is my No. 1 priority.”

The problem is virtually every team with a desirable asset still sees itself one hot two-week stretch away from contention, if it are even currently out of it. And now with Scott Kazmir and Johnny Cueto dealing with shoulder and elbow issues, respectively, teams like the Dodgers have to wait to see how they recover.

Another problem with acquiring a front-line kind of arm is it might very well cost the Dodgers an elite prospect, and that is something the front office has been unwilling to pay. Even if it is willing to listen to counter offers, players like Pederson, Corey Seager and Julio Urias are essentially untouchable.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, it is likely they will need another strong starting pitcher to stick behind Kershaw and Zack Greinke if they plan to upend the Cardinals, or anyone else, in a postseason series. Ryu was that guy, and a healthy and effective McCarthy was the backup plan.

How the Dodgers fare this weekend in St. Louis will not determine if they are capable of beating their “principal rivals” when it counts most. How their roster looks come the first week of October will.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired first-hand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: Best MLB Position Player Picks for May 29

Looking for a little extra spending cash for the coming weekend? Friday’s slate of games presents that opportunity for DraftKings daily fantasy owners with a wealth of big bats and consistent players to choose from.

Before the Friday games get underway, here’s a look at the best MLB position player picks for May 29.

 

First Baseman: Lucas Duda, New York Mets ($4,600)

Lucas Duda is absolutely crushing fools over his last six starts. But the Mets first baseman has mashed at home in four games during that stretch. In those four games, Duda has seven hits, five homers, eight RBI and nine runs.

“I’m getting a little more comfortable. Just trying to elevate a pitch and put a good swing on it,” Duda said, via Michael Baron of MLB.com. “I was looking for a fastball up and I was able to get it and put a pretty good swing on it.”

He’s seems pretty comfortable with some of the tape-measure shots he’s hit lately.

Don’t expect him to slow down against Dan Haren. While Haren has cruised at home in hitter-friendly Marlins Park, he’s struggled on the road with six homers allowed in four starts. He also has a 5.18 ERA on the road and will face a volatile New York lineup on Friday.

 

Second Baseman: Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins ($4,600)

The Minnesota Twins have been a truly surprising team this season, and Brian Dozier has been a huge part of that success. Dozier isn’t hitting a high average, but he still has a .364 OBP at home with an average of 9.2 fantasy points at Target Field.

His sample against Mark Buehrle is limited, but he has two hits with a double in three at-bats. As the leadoff man for the Twins, Dozier is getting several opportunities to thrive and will continue to do so for fantasy owners on Friday.

 

Third Baseman: Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals ($4,500)

I know what you’re thinking: “With Mike Bolsinger on the mound, why play a Cardinals batter?” Sure, Bolsinger has gotten off to a solid start, but he hasn’t faced a lineup like the one St. Louis presents. He’s also only faced one team on the road to this point.

Matt Carpenter has picked apart pitchers in myriad ways this year. Whether it’s through his power—26 extra-base hits and eight homers—or his methodical approach—21 walks and .389 OPS—Carpenter is a player every owner needs in his or her lineup. Even against Bolsinger, this lineup will get the job done.

 

Shortstop: Jhonny Peralta, St. Louis Cardinals ($4,100)

Keeping with the theme of Cardinals sluggers who should finally crack Mike Bolsinger, Jhonny Peralta is another position player to target. The veteran shortstop is enjoying a solid season and has shown plenty of pop in his bat recently.

During his six-game hitting streak, Peralta has one home run, four RBI, a walk and four runs. That all equates to an average of 9.3 fantasy points per game over that stretch. His strikeouts are lower and walks higher at home, making Peralta a consistent middle infielder to lock into a lineup.

 

Outfielder: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals ($5,200)

“I don’t always hit pop-ups. But when I do, they’re home runs.” These are the (fake) words of the most interesting batter in the world, Bryce Harper.

Yes, I’m aware he’s the second-highest salary player for Friday. Yes, I’m aware he’s playing on the road. But even at a high price, Harper is a can’t-miss player with the surge he’s been on in recent weeks.

There are several unreal stats for Harper recently, but here are some of the best from Aaron Gleeman of NBC Sports and Mark Zuckerman of CSN:

Simply put, Harper has been an animal over his last 19 games. With 13 homers over that stretch, no one is even close to the same realm as Harper in May. Going up against right-handed Anthony DeSclafani, Harper should continue his stretch of phenomenal play for owners as a No. 1 outfielder.


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Is It Time for the Detroit Tigers to Call Up Steven Moya?

In case you hadn’t noticed, the Detroit Tigers offense has had its struggles this season.

Nobody anticipated this. Even with Victor Martinez on the shelf, a team boasting Miguel Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, J.D. Martinez and Ian Kinsler should be a run-scoring powerhouse. Right now they are languishing at 10th in the American League in runs per game (4.2).

Things have been particularly bad in recent outings. During the first four days of their current West Coast road trip, the runs have been as dry as a teetotaller’s picnic—six in four games. Some quality pitching has enabled them to eke out a pair of victories in these outings. However, their offensive malaise cannot continue if they hope to keep pace in the crackerjack Central Division.

There is hope on the horizon for the beleaguered Tigers lineup. Uncharacteristically for this franchise, the player in mind is not a veteran on the trading block, but a prospect waiting in the wings.

Steven Moya is the man I refer to. The 6’7″ slugger has been tabbed as a player of the future by the Tigers for some time now. Tigers president/general manager Dave Dombrowski expressed his views on the 23-year-old last October to James Schmehl of MLive: “We love Steven Moya. … He’s a 35-home run, 100-plus hitting-type guy, and he plays solid defense and runs well for a big guy, too.”

Yep, Detroit’s No.1 prospect is the full package.

Dombrowski did not just pluck those numbers out of thin air. Last year with the Double-A Erie Seawolves, Moya set franchise records by uncorking 35 HR, 105 RBI and 286 total bases.

A September call-up for the first time last year, Moya had a chance of cracking the Tiger’s 25-man roster out of camp. But a poor spring (.125/.125/.250) had him heading back to the minors. Then, to rub salt into his wounds, he began the season late after sustaining a foot injury in early April.

Flip the calendar forward nearly two months, and things have changed significantly. After taking several weeks to find his groove, Moya is now raking at Triple-A Toledo.

Since May 12, he has hit .317 (19-for-60) and been on base in each of his 14 starts. During this time, Moya has plundered nine extra-base hits, including four home runs. One of these deep flies was also a game-winner against Buffalo on May 16.

Moya turning the corner may have come at just the right time for the Tigers. His hot bat could be the perfect fizz for Detroit’s un-carbonated offense.

Also beneficial is the fact that Moya bats from the left side. This would provide a nice complement to Detroit’s lineup, which is even more righty-dominant than normal with the absences of Martinez and Alex Avila. Center fielder Anthony Gose is currently the only everyday left-handed hitter on the Detroit team.

If promoted, Moya could slot in at No. 6 between J.D. Martinez and Nick Castellanos. This would not place too much burden on the youngster as he wets his feet in the big leagues.

Despite the documented upsides, Moya will come up with his warts. Last year he struck out 161 times at Double-A (31 percent) and has fanned another 50 times (31 percent) already in 2015.

The pitching will only get tougher in the majors, and Moya has shown no sign of lowering his strike out numbers. If given the chance now, his air-swing habits are unlikely to change in the short-to-medium term.

However, his immense talent and power may offset this issue. Many players are still productive and capable of helping their team win despite striking out a lot. Evan Gattis and George Springer of the Houston Astros are two cases in point.

Speaking last year to Lynn Henning of the Detroit News, Tigers manager Brad Ausmus recognised Moya’s flaws but also saw a silver lining:

It’s not uncommon for power hitters to swing and miss. But with experience, you hope his pitch-recognition goes up. I don’t think he’ll ever be Victor Martinez when putting the bat on the ball, but no one is. If he can make contact at the big-league level he’s going to hit some homers.

And the Tigers could certainly do with a few of those at the moment. What have they got to lose?

It could hardly get much worse on the offensive side than it is right now. If Moya fails, he can be sent back down for more seasoning and Detroit would go back to square one.

Whether it’s now or later, it’s just a matter of time before he does the business in Motown. Dombrowski seems ultra-confident of that: “If Moya‘s not a premium prospect, I don’t know who is. … I don’t know what damage he’ll end up doing this year, but I mean, this guy has unbelievable power,” he said to Anthony Fenech of Detroit Free Press.

We could be about to find out how much damage he can do. With the phone only an arm length away, Dombrowski’s hand may be just about to twitch.

 

Stats in this article are courtesy of milb.com

Hit me up on Twitter: @jdunc1979

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2015 MLB Rookie of the Year Stock Watch, End of May Edition

Major League Baseball has been overrun with youth in recent years, and the barrage isn’t letting up in 2015. So if you like high drama in your awards races, the Rookie of the Year is the one for you.

And with the first two months of the season just about over, it’s time to check where things stand.

We’re going to rank the top five Rookie of the Year contenders in the American and National League, respectively. Simple enough, but understand that there are two ground rules at play:

  1. Overall production matters most.
  2. Since we’re also taking the temperature of the candidates, a guy who’s been good all year won’t necessarily rank ahead of a guy who’s red-hot now.

Before we begin, a fair warning: The crop of rookies in the AL is solid, but it isn’t nearly as strong as the crop of rookies in the NL. As such, we’ll warm up with the Junior Circuit before moving to the Senior Circuit.

Step into the box whenever you’re ready.

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Kyle Schwarber Is Next in Long Line of Cubs’ Rising Offensive Stars

With Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Addison Russell already in their lineup, seemingly the last thing the Chicago Cubs need is another talented young hitter. 

And yet there’s Kyle Schwarber. He’s knocking on the door to the majors, and his knocks are only getting louder.

It feels weird to say as much, knowing that it hasn’t even been a full year since the Cubs drafted the 22-year-old catcher/left fielder out of Indiana University. But that’s the way this cookie is crumbling. While Schwarber may be light on pro experience, he’s certainly made the most of what he’s gotten.

You can take it from his numbers. Starting at Low-A Boise last year and continuing through Double-A Tennessee this year, the lefty swinger has been an absolute beast since turning pro:

Note: These are current through Thursday, May 28.

Those are some really, really big numbers, and they have the attention of the big club’s skipper.

“Every time I look at that scoreboard back home, it’s ‘Schwarber, 3-for-5, home run, three RBIs.’ Even if it’s 1-for-5, it’s a game-winning RBI,” said Cubs manager Joe Maddon this week, via Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. “He’s definitely got the hitting chip. He thinks he knows he can.”

For now, nobody’s saying a call-up to the majors is imminent for Schwarber. All Maddon was willing to say was that it’s “possible” he’ll debut before the end of 2015.

This is largely because the Cubs are determined to develop Schwarber as a catcher, and that’s where he needs work. He wasn’t regarded as a particularly gifted backstop when the Cubs drafted him, and Maddon granted that he’s still a “work in progress” behind the plate.

As time goes on, however, it may simply be too tempting for the Cubs to call on Schwarber to play left field, where they’re getting a modest .706 OPS from Chris Coghlan and others.

As ESPN’s Keith Law argued on Baseball Tonight“You could put him in left field now, and he would probably be their best offensive option.”

Clearly, Schwarber‘s minor league numbers lend credence to that notion. So do the skills that have made those numbers possible, which are just as worth getting excited about.

If we were to travel back in time a year, we wouldn’t find too many experts raving about Schwarber. He was well-regarded as a prospect heading into the 2014 draft, sure, but not that well-regarded.

For instance, MLB.com only had him rated as the draft’s No. 16 prospect. Baseball Prospectus had him at No. 17. Baseball America had him at No. 18. Law had him had him at No. 26.

So, cue an American League Central scout who recently spoke with Christopher Crawford of Baseball Prospectus.

“I was just as stunned as everyone else when the Cubs took Schwarber as high as they did, I thought he’d go in the top 15 or so, but no way did I think he belonged in the top five,” he said.

But then he added, “Turns out they knew what they were doing.”

Indeed, and that became apparent immediately after Schwarber set foot in the pros last summer.

By the time he finished destroying the opposition to the tune of a .344 average and a 1.061 OPS, he had become one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Per Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus all had Schwarber ranked as a top-100 prospect coming into 2015.

This is despite the fact that concerns over Schwarber‘s defense were universal, which tells you just how appealing the experts found his bat both from a power and average perspective.

To this end, Baseball America‘s scouting report adequately sums up what drives Schwarber‘s power potential: “He has thick, strong legs and swings from the ground up, incorporating his powerful lower half to deliver plus power with a short, furious, left-handed stroke. He keeps his hands back and has the strength to hit the ball out to any part of the park.”

All you need to do is look at Schwarber‘s listed size of 6’0″ and 235 pounds, and you’ll get a picture of a guy with a strong lower half from which to generate power. As for the rest of it, here are some moving pictures that can help:

Here’s where you can really get a sense of not only how sturdy Schwarber‘s lower half is but also just how quick his bat is. That’s an inside fastball that he let travel pretty deep into the hitting zone, yet he had no trouble getting around on it and punishing it.

What’s not pictured above is Schwarber‘s ability to hit the ball out to any part of the yard. But that’s something we can get a sense of from looking at his 2015 heat map from MLBFarm.com:

Not surprisingly, the biggest concentration of deep drives is to Schwarber‘s pull side out to right field. But there’s no shortage of long drives to center, and he hits some to left field as well. For only 42 games’ worth of Double-A action, that’s plenty encouraging.

Bottom line: The 28 homers Schwarber has in only 114 minor league games aren’t misleading. They indicate he could be a 30-homer guy in the majors, and he has the goods for the task.

However, Schwarber‘s power potential is only half the story. He’s also hit for average in the minors, and that’s another thing he projects to be capable of in the majors thanks to his advanced approach.

In a chat with Carrie Muskat of MLB.com, Maddon praised Schwarber for being a “very mature at-bat.” That’s backed up by the fact that he’s drawn walks in 14.9 percent of his professional plate appearances. That’s some real discipline right there, and Law noted that as something he didn’t expect from Schwarber coming out of the draft.

As for where that discipline is coming from, there’s more to it than just an awareness of the strike zone. Schwarber also has outstanding pitch recognition, a skill that tends to elude power-hitting prospects.

As one National League executive put it to Crawford, “The approach is just so advanced. He recognizes pitches at an elite level, and in the dozens of at-bats I’ve seen, I’ve never come away saying ‘that was a wasted at-bat.'”

Obviously, one catch is that Schwarber‘s advanced approach hasn’t kept him from racking up a less-than-awesome 19.7 strikeout rate in the minors. That’s partially the result of so many deep counts, but it’s also an upshot of so much movement in his load and timing device. As long as that remains the case, there’s going to be a swing-and-miss element to his game.

However, Schwarber‘s strikeout rate isn’t worth panicking over.

For perspective, his strikeout rate doesn’t look so bad next to the 26.6 strikeout percentage that Kris Bryant put up in the minors. All his strikeouts certainly didn’t stop him from posting numbers, and the same has been true of his major league career. He’s balancing a 29.2 strikeout percentage with a 14.9 percent walk rate and crushing the ball when he does put it in play. Schwarber could stick to the same model.

All told, you’re not just looking at a guy who has the potential to mash 30 home runs on an annual basis. You’re also looking at a guy whose average could sit between the high .200s and low .300s, with a solid on-base percentage to boot.

Of course, such production will be doubly valuable if Schwarber sticks at catcher. If that’s the route the Cubs want to go, all signs point toward it being in their interest not to rush Schwarber to the majors, where they currently have Miguel Montero.

But if the Cubs decide they’d rather embrace Schwarber‘s bat than wait on his glove, there’s more than a fair chance you could see him patrolling left field at Wrigley Field before the end of the year. That’s where the Cubs could use a high-ceiling offensive talent, and Schwarber has just the bat for the job.

Either way, get used to hearing Schwarber‘s name. Few things generate buzz these days quite like Cubs hitting prospects, and he’s just as worthy of buzz as those who came before him.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

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2015 MLB Draft Prospects: Ranking the Top Sleeper at Every Position

With the NCAA regionals set to begin on Friday, fans will soon have the opportunity to view some of the top draft prospects in the 2015 class, whether it is college shortstops Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman, prep outfielder Daz Cameron, left-handed pitcher Tyler Jay or right-hander Carson Fulmer.

However, this year’s crop of talent—which we explored in depth earlier this week—extends far beyond the aforementioned college standouts, and with 40 rounds of drafting over a three-day period, teams will have plenty of opportunities to find value where others don’t.

With that in mind, we’re going to break down the top sleeper candidates for the upcoming draft, focusing on one prospect at each position who isn’t getting the publicity or fanfare he deserves but projects well at the next level.

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