Archive for April, 2015

Early Grades for All of Atlanta Braves’ Offseason Acquisitions

The Atlanta Braves spent a great deal of the offseason overhauling the roster to change their style of play, find some leadership and build toward the future.

The new roster got the Braves off to a hot start in 2015 but has since cooled to around the .500 mark.

Playing .500 baseball is likely the ceiling for this 2015 team, but with some luck and elevated play, it could push for a wild-card spot.

This will depend on many factors, with one of those being the play and leadership of their offseason acquisitions.

Let’s take a look at early grades for the Braves’ offseason acquisitions.

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Stock Up, Stock Down on MLB’s Top Projected Trade Targets Entering May

Baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline might still be three months away, but it’s never too early to take a look at the biggest names that could potentially be on the move as it draws near.

While teams are able to make trades in April and May, baseball’s “trade season” typically doesn’t begin until mid-June, when clubs have a better idea of who they are, where they stand and what they need to get where they want to go.

Contenders look to add veteran pieces, preferably on short-term deals, to try to put them over the top in a playoff race, while non-contenders try to maximize their return by acquiring young, controllable talent that can make a relatively quick impact in the majors.

Pitching tends to be the most sought-after commodity on the market, and there’s no shortage of quality options that could be available, a list that includes Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto and Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels.

But don’t think for a second that an impact bat or two couldn’t be wearing a new uniform come Aug. 1. A pair of potential Hall of Fame infielders, along with a pair of oft-injured-but-supremely talented bats in Colorado, could all be on the move as well.

Let’s take a look at 10 impact players who, potentially, could all be on the market in the weeks and months ahead (if they aren’t already), and where their stock stands as we head into the second month of the regular season.

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Predicting MLB’s Top 25 Players 5 Years from Now

Baseball is a tough sport to predict on a long-term basis, as much can change in a year. Injuries, unexpected steps forward and backward by established players, and the yearly influx of rookies leave the MLB landscape looking significantly different on a year-in and year-out basis.

With that being said, what follows is my prediction of who will be the 25 best players in MLB when the 2020 season rolls around five years from now.

Based on current age, track record of success to this point and overall projectability, the following 25 guys all profile as superstar-caliber players down the road.

It’s important to realize that the 25 best players represent the top 3.3 percent of players in baseball, so you can be a very good player and still not make this list.

As a result, a lot of guys who are going to be awfully good five years from now are not included for the simple reason that only 25 slots are available.

Still think I overlooked someone? I encourage your feedback in the comments below. I ask only that you also recommend a player to be removed from my list in favor of him, for the sake of argument.

Note: Ages referenced reflect a player’s “baseball age,” or how old he will be on June 30. Minor league stats are provided for players who have yet to exceed rookie eligibility limits. Players are listed alphabetically.

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Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Strategy, Primer for April 28

Have a great start to the week on Monday in MLB daily fantasy? Time to get right back at it. Things didn’t go so well to kick off this series? Nothing heals those wounds like winning the next day with a brand-new lineup.

Regardless of the current situation, Tuesday night provides plenty of opportunities to come away with a victory. Before the first pitch is thrown, take a look at these strategic picks to create a perfect lineup and take down any opponent.

 

Pitcher: Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds ($10,400)

This season, Johnny Cueto has already been sensational every time he’s taken the mound. One of his best starts came against the Milwaukee Brewers on the road. On Tuesday, he takes on the same club in the friendly confines of the Great American Ball Park.

With the Brewers falling further and further into the National League Central cellar, Cueto will be dominant again. Even at such a high asking price, missing out on Cueto will be the difference between pulling out a win and coming up just short.

 

First Baseman: Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees ($4,500)

Monday was not a good showing for Mark Teixeira, but he’ll rebound on Tuesday against the Tampa Bay Rays. Playing at home against a right-handed pitcher, Teixeira will be driving into the short porch of Yankee Stadium looking for his ninth home run of the season.

His opponent on the mound will be Jake Odorizzi, who’s had a phenomenal season thus far. However, he’s given up two extra-base hits—a triple and a homer—to Teixeira in seven plate appearances. Already ripping six of his four-baggers against right-handers, look for a big night from the Yankees first baseman.

 

Second Baseman: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros ($4,200)

Knock on Jose Altuve all you want for being the shortest player in the MLB, but the man can rake. The Houston Astros second baseman is guiding the way for the upstart ‘Stros and having another stellar season at the plate.

Eno Sarris of Fox Sports recently chronicled how a simple leg kick for Altuve has improved his approach at the plate. As his contact rate continues to climb, owners need to target the second baseman for consistent production.

Even against Tyson Ross, Altuve will keep producing and build off his five straight multihit games. He’s just that good.

 

Third Baseman: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs ($4,600)

Everyone expected Kris Bryant to be sensational at the MLB level. It just wasn’t supposed to look this easy.

Bryant has crushed his way to a .351 average with nine RBI and a remarkable .931 OPS. Surprisingly enough, he hasn’t hit a single home run since his call-up, but he hit enough in spring training to let fantasy owners know they’re eventually coming.

Facing a left-handed pitcher in Jeff Locke on Tuesday night, Bryant gets a somewhat favorable matchup. Still at a reasonable price for a third baseman, Bryant will outperform his salary against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

 

Outfielder: Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins ($5,300)

After getting off to a slow start by his own standards, Giancarlo Stanton has heated up over the last 10 games. Over that span, his OBP is up to .400, and he hit all five of his home runs on the season. Oh, and he also hit a mammoth triple that would have been a home run in nearly every other MLB ballpark.

Even with a matchup against a right-handed pitcher in Rafael Montero, Stanton should put up huge numbers on Tuesday. After all, each of his homers so far have come against righties, and Montero is just being called up for a cameo appearance in the rotation, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.

He’ll get a sample of just what Stanton brings to the plate on Tuesday night. For fantasy owners who start the mashing Marlin, inching closer toward a win seems predetermined.


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Mike Trout’s New Aggressive Approach Is Making Baseball’s Best Even Better

There’s a new Mike Trout roaming the baseball landscape early in 2015. And so far, he looks suspiciously like the old Mike Trout, who most everyone knew and loved as the game’s best player.

That’s the takeaway you get when looking at Trout’s numbers. In 19 games, the Los Angeles Angels Angels center fielder is slashing .318/.432/.545 with four home runs, five stolen bases and a .978 OPS.

Among the game’s elite players, numbers like these place Trout about where you’d expect. On Monday morning, he ranked in the top 10 in the American League in adjusted OPS and behind only three other players in Wins Above Replacement.

Because Trout led everyone in adjusted OPS and WAR between 2012 and 2014, it might be tempting to say his current positions in both categories were inevitable. But if you rack your brain, you’ll remember that Trout being his usual self in 2015 wasn’t supposed to be a sure thing.

Though Trout captured an overdue MVP award in 2014, it was a down season by his standards. His average fell from the mid-.320s to just .287, and his OPS fell to .939 from .988 the previous season. He went from being “easily” baseball’s best player to “arguably” baseball’s best player.

After a year like that, it was clear that making an adjustment or two would be in Trout’s best interest. And that, naturally, brings us to where this “new” Mike Trout is coming from.

If you already know where we’re going, that’s either (a) because you can read headlines or (b) because Trout wasn’t keeping any secrets in spring training about what he wanted to do in 2015.

In February, Trout told Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times that one of his biggest goals for 2015 was cutting down on his strikeouts after leading the AL with 184 of them in 2014. When asked in early March to elaborate on his plan, Trout made a point about being more aggressive.

“Throughout my career, I’ve been taking,” he said. “I like to see pitches, but I’m going to get locked and loaded on the first pitch. If it’s in the zone, I’m going to take a hack at it.”

In theory, swinging at pitches that are good to hit instead of taking them makes perfect sense. And according to a person in the know, this was the right idea for Trout to pursue.

An advisor to an AL team told this to Anthony Castrovince of Sports on Earth: “The book on Trout is to get a first-pitch strike on him, because he usually takes on first pitches. … So what I want to know is what happens when he starts swinging at more first pitches. How does that change everything else?”

As far as that last question is concerned, Trout hinted at what he could do with more early swings with his spring performance. He hit .441 with a 1.362 OPS, numbers that, as he told Bob Nightengale of USA Today, had a lot to do with his newfound aggressive approach.

But now we’re in the regular season, and we don’t need to take his word for it about what’s behind his production anymore. We can see for ourselves.

Not surprisingly, what we can see is some pretty good stuff.

Trout is indeed being more aggressive. He’s doubled his first-pitch swing rate, going from 10.6 in 2014 to 21.0 this year. And according to FanGraphs, his overall swing rate is at a career-high 41.7 percent.

Now, you’d think that these extra swings would be leading to shorter, easier at-bats. But actually, the opposite has happened. Trout is working on a career-high rate of 4.52 pitches per plate appearance and, according to Baseball Savant, seeing more two-strike pitches than ever before.

But this isn’t to say Trout’s extra swings have been wasted. It just means we have to go back to something else he said during spring training.

As told to DiGiovanna: “Being aggressive on that first pitch is getting me ready to hit better than just taking.”

Or, translated: You can be a better hitter by swinging than you can by taking.

That Trout’s strikeout rate has dropped from an ugly 26.1 percent last year to a more reasonable 19.8 percent this year says this new outlook is working for him, and it’s no mirage. He has a career-low 5.7 swinging-strike rate, as well as a career-high 36.8 foul-ball percentage.

There’s no need to explain the value of a low whiff rate, but don’t underestimate the value of a high foul-ball rate. Many believe foul balls are a valuable skill, including former major leaguer Gabe Kapler:

That Trout has improved his whiff and foul-ball rates despite being more aggressive looks good enough on its own. But what can make these two strengths look even better is how they’re stemming largely from an area that had previously been a key weakness.

One of the worst-kept secrets in baseball in 2014 was how much Trout was struggling against high fastballs. He saw a lot of them, and Baseball Savant says he hit a career-low .113 against them.

In 2015, Trout is seeing even more high heat. But he’s handling it a lot better, as he’s 6-for-22 (.273) against the high hard stuff. That’s obviously a small sample, but there are good reasons for it. Though Trout has being similarly aggressive against high heat, his whiff and foul rates against it have improved dramatically:

As such, Trout’s aggressiveness hasn’t just helped him solve his strikeout problem. It’s also helped him take away the best weapon pitchers had against him in 2014. More so than ever before, he’s dictating his own at-bats.

And in a big-picture sense, it’s not hard to see how this is benefiting him.

Easily the biggest benefit of Trout’s new approach is something he hinted was coming: domination within the strike zone.

Given how much he killed pitches in the zone between 2012 and 2014 when he did swing, it was frustrating how infrequent Trout’s in-zone swings were. But so far in 2015, he’s drastically ramped up his in-zone swing rate (Z-Swing%) and, per Baseball Savant, is crushing in-zone pitches better than before:

Trout’s increased aggressiveness and production against in-zone pitches accounts for the bulk of his overall production. Just as important, though, is how this transition doesn’t come with the expected downside.

One thing you fear with hitters who are being more aggressive is that they might also be chasing more pitches outside the zone. But this hasn’t been the case with Trout. His chase rate (O-Swing%) hasn’t increased nearly as much as his zone rate (Zone%) has dropped:

When you mix good discipline and a small percentage of pitches in the zone like that, you’re going to walk a lot. So it has been with Trout, who’s working on a career-best 16.0 BB%.

Add it all up, and what we’re seeing in 2015 is Trout at his very best as a hitter.

By becoming more aggressive, Trout has been able to fix things that were ailing him in 2015. And by mashing in the strike zone and still maintaining enough discipline to take his walks, he’s enjoying the best of both worlds like never before.

Basically, he’s answering the challenge that was issued in 2014. The league sent a message that Trout was going to have to get better if he wanted to remain the best. He’s done that, and in the process, Trout has sent a message of his own:

How ’bout something a little harder next time?

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Are the Houston Astros Ready to Capture the AL West Earlier Than Expected?

To say the Houston Astros have been bad since arriving in the American League West is an understatement of Texas-sized proportions.

In 2012, the year the Astros ditched the senior circuit, they lost 111 games. It was their third consecutive 100-loss season. 

Last year, Houston finished 70-92, enough to avoid the cellar but still 28 games off the pace.

Almost a month into the 2015 campaign, these Astros are suddenly looking like contenders.

Sure, it’s early. Baseball history is littered with scalding Aprils that evaporated in the heat of summer. But the standings don’t lie: After defeating the San Diego Padres 9-4 Monday night, Houston sits at 12-7, three games ahead of the defending division champion Los Angeles Angels.

Really, it’s not so shocking. The Astros are laden with young talent, a team on the rise. But many, myself included, didn’t think they’d rise so far so fast.

While there’s ample time to crash back to Earth, there are reasons to believe these ‘Stros are for real.

Let’s start with the pitching staff, which sported a 3.18 ERA entering play Monday, second-best in the AL.

The rotation is anchored by Dallas Keuchel, who is looking to build on a breakout 2014 season that saw him post a 2.93 ERA in 200 innings and toss an American League-leading five complete games.

Through four starts, the 27-year-old southpaw owns a 0.62 ERA and 0.828 WHIP. 

In his most recent outing on April 24 against the Oakland A’s, Keuchel twirled nine shutout innings but got a no-decision, with Houston ultimately prevailing 5-4 in the eleventh. After the game, Keuchel was still stewing on the two free passes he surrendered. 

“It was just real spotty command,” he said, per MLB.com‘s Alex Espinoza.

So spotty command equals nine scoreless frames? Sleep tight, opposing batters. 

Speaking of batters, reigning AL batting champ Jose Altuve has picked up where he left off. Entering play Tuesday, the All-Star second baseman was hitting .325 with seven stolen bases.

Then there are the unexpected contributions that fuel every surprise run. Like, say, center fielder Jake Marisnick, a former third-round pick acquired from the Miami Marlins last July. 

Entering play Tuesday, Marisnick sported a robust .990 OPS and was leading the team with a .362 batting average.

“Just coming up here and starting to be consistent every day, I think it’ll start to show up more and more,” the 24-year-old told Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle

Other Astros are still waiting to launch. Outfielder and 2011 first-round pick George Springer, who blasted 20 home runs in 78 games last year, is hitting .183 with 28 strikeouts in 71 at-bats. Overall, Houston is hitting .229 as a team.

The point is, there are already noticeable chinks in the armor. Pleasantly surprising as they’ve been, the Astros have flaws. On the other hand, who doesn’t?

No other squad in the AL West presently sits above .500. And from the underperforming Angels and Seattle Mariners to the perpetually reshuffling A’s to the injury-bitten Texas Rangers, everyone’s got question marks.

Does that make Houston the new favorites? Not yet. This hot start, though, has accelerated the Astros’ relevancy timeline and nudged them from pretender to contender.

Here’s an interesting note from ESPN.com‘s Buster Olney:

Two hundred sixty-three hitters had at least 300 plate appearances in 2014, and five of the hitters who appear poised to start in Houston’s lineup finished in the top 19 in the majors for highest strikeout percentage… The Astros will be the latest team to test the theory that all outs are created equal, and it really doesn’t matter whether you slap a ground ball to second base or strike out.

It’s a boom-or-bust offense, in other words, destined to either wow you or leave you sorely disappointed. There will be highs, there will be lows.

But to say this squad is intriguing is an understatement of Texas-sized proportions.

 

All statistics current as of April 27 and courtesy of MLB.com.

 

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With Brandon McCarthy’s 2015 Over, Dodgers Must Make Moves to Address Rotation

It’s a good thing the Los Angeles Dodgers have arguably the best one-two pitching punch in Major League Baseball with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke atop their staff. They’re going to need it.

In the wake of the lingering-since-spring-training left-shoulder injury to southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu, expected to be the club’s third starter, and the more recent, more severe season-ending elbow tear suffered Saturday night by No. 4 starter Brandon McCarthy, the contending Dodgers are going to have to address their rapidly eroding rotation.

And probably sooner than later, as Bill Plunkett of the Los Angeles Times puts it:

McCarthy, who signed a lucrative contract with L.A. as a free agent this past offseason, left his outing over the weekend in the sixth inning of a game the Dodgers eventually won over the San Diego Padres.

Immediately after throwing a pitch that Justin Upton hit for a home run, the tall righty began to shake his right arm and then called the club’s coaching staff and trainers out to the mound. After a brief discussion, McCarthy came out.

“I expected [McCarthy] to go on the DL [Monday], but we thought more along the lines of tendinitis than something like [a torn ulnar collateral ligament],” Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said Monday in his interview with reporters. “I felt like that’s what I was going to hear, then we would have to fill [in for McCarthy] for a little bit of time and get back to it. But obviously, the news was not good.”

The expectation is that McCarthy will need to undergo Tommy John surgery, per Earl Bloom of MLB.com, which could keep him out through the first half of 2016.

Meanwhile, the NL West-leading Dodgers (12-7) are merely very early in the first half of 2015, and already a team that has won the division each of the past two years and has World Series hopes needs to be searching for pitching depth either internally or possibly via trade between now and July 31.

Oh, and the Dodgers also have to keep their fingers crossed that Kershaw and Greinke can sustain the status quo as two of the sport’s very best and most durable.

After those two, the only other pitcher projected to be a part of the rotation at the outset of the season is Brett Anderson, who might well be the most injury-prone starting pitcher in baseball in recent years.

Over the previous three seasons, the 27-year-old left-hander has made just 19 starts and thrown all of 123 innings—combined. Anderson more or less is a disabled-list stint waiting to happen, but now the Dodgers need him to be a somewhat stable third option behind the top two.

That is, at least until Ryu returns. The 28-year-old Korean lefty, who was both good and steady in his first two seasons, is making progress but very slowly as he comes back from a shoulder impingement. Ryu threw 20 pitches off a mound Sunday in his first action since being shut down in mid-March, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.

As for McCarthy, it’s not like he has been the pillar of health, which is why it was surprising to many when the Dodgers inked him not only for $48 million but also for four years this winter.

The 31-year-old has pitched in parts of 10 seasons in the majors, and only last year did McCarthy finally make it past 25 starts and over 175 innings in a single one. He has been on the DL a Ferris Bueller-like nine times.

Still, the Dodgers, in all likelihood, could have been anticipating some sort of ailment or injury for McCarthy—just not one of the season-ending variety. And certainly not after just four starts.

That leaves Mattingly and, especially, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman to scramble to find a way to make up for about, oh, 28 turns and 180 or so innings. And that’s just for McCarthy.

A peek at L.A.’s 40-man roster shows the following names as potential fill-ins, at least in the short term:

  • Scott Baker, a 33-year-old veteran who sports a 4.24 career ERA and who last made even 10 starts in 2011
  • Mike Bolsinger, who already has made one start for the Dodgers in 2015 but otherwise is 27 years old and in his third season at Triple-A
  • Zach Lee, 23, the club’s first-round pick in 2010 who is off to a strong start at Oklahoma City (1.00 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) but who has yet to debut and is considered a mid-rotation arm at best
  • Joe Wieland, a 25-year-old the Dodgers acquired along with Yasmani Grandal from the Padres in the Matt Kemp deal who has 39 career innings in the majors

There’s also Brandon Beachy, the once-promising Atlanta Braves right-hander who is trying to return from a second Tommy John surgery by this summer.

In other words: not a whole heck of a lot. Until Friedman can come up with a more stable solution, expect the above four to be on call, possibly shuttling back and forth between L.A. and OKC.

Longer term, there’s at least a possibility, it would seem, that top prospect/phenom Julio Urias could be called upon at some point.

But even if the precocious left-hander continues tearing up Double-A at age 18 (20.2 IP, 13 H, 5 ER, 26:3 K:BB), that likely wouldn’t happen until after the All-Star break. And even then, maybe only if things don’t get better for Ryu or go south once again for Anderson. Baseball America managing editor JJ Cooper offered this about Urias:

That leaves external options via trade. There will be—scratch that, there already is, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times—chatter and speculation about the usual suspects, like Johnny Cueto of the Cincinnati Reds, Jordan Zimmermann of the Washington Nationals or Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies. And any of those three, among others, are possible targets down the line.

But the Friedman-led front office has indicated in the past that there’s no interest in trading one of the franchise’s top two building-block prospects, shortstop Corey Seager or Urias, when both are massive talents on the verge of helping the big league club at minimal cost. Such a big-name pitcher is going to require a big-time return. Says USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale:

Could desperation in the form of a setback with Ryu or another injury to Anderson—or worse, Kershaw or Greinke—change that? Sure, but that remains to be seen.

Perhaps rather than honing in on another star starter, the Dodgers would be better served targeting one or two capable mid-rotation arms. Someone like Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Kyle Lohse, Oakland Athletics lefty Scott Kazmir or Reds righty Mike Leake, to name a few.

None of those three are sexy superstars the Dodgers have come to be associated with, but they’re all proven pitchers who would be major improvements over what L.A. currently is calling the back end of its rotation. What’s more, all three are free agents after the season, which would make them much easier gets, and that’s up Friedman’s alley.

Besides, with a one-two like Kershaw and Greinke, and with Ryu eventually as the No. 3, the Dodgers don’t need another star-caliber starter. They do, however, need innings.

 

Statistics are accurate through Monday, April 27, and courtesy of MLB.comBaseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Cole Hamels Struts His Stuff as List of Suitors Grows

Every start Cole Hamels makes is an audition. And with each performance, his audience appears to be growing.

If that is indeed the case, they must be liking what they’re seeing.

Hamels made his fifth start of 2015 Monday night, and it was a good one. The ace left-hander led the Philadelphia Phillies to a 4-1 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals with seven innings of one-run ball. He did allow four walks, but he also permitted just four hits and struck out nine.

That makes it three starts out of four that Hamels has pitched at least six innings while allowing no more than one earned run. His overall ERA is 3.19, which looks an awful lot like his career 3.27 ERA. If one didn’t know any better, one would say he’s still one of the best pitchers in the National League.

So, that sound you’re hearing is Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. rubbing his hands together with excitement. He has a pretty massive rebuilding job on his hands, and the guy who was supposed to be his best trade chip isn’t letting him down.

That alone would be good enough for Hamels’ trade value. But as you might have noticed, what’s helping it even further is that his list of possible suitors is growing by the day.

And at the top of the list might be the team Hamels just beat.

The Cardinals confirmed Monday that staff ace Adam Wainwright has been lost for the season with a torn Achilles. He’s a guy few pitchers are capable of replacing, and the club’s in-house options certainly fall well short in that regard. 

Because it’s still only April, the Cardinals understandably aren’t rushing to make a trade. But GM John Mozeliak did tell Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he “might have to look outside” eventually, and it’s a good bet Hamels will be at the top of his wish list if and when that time comes.

It was reported during the winter that the Cardinals were interested in trading for Hamels, with the idea being to add a left-handed ace to their rotation. The 31-year-old’s production obviously still fits the bill, and so does his stuff. FanGraphs can vouch that Hamels’ velocity is still in the low-90s, and that his trademark changeup is once again contributing to an outstanding swinging-strike rate.

There is one complication, though. The Cardinals might be able to afford to take on the bulk of Hamels’ remaining contract—four years and at least $100 million—but Bob Nightengale of USA Today says they “don’t quite have the pieces” to satisfy the rebuilding Phillies in trade talks.

Part of that has to do with how there are at least two other major suitors whose need for Hamels has only gotten larger.

One is the Los Angeles Dodgers. They were also connected to Hamels over the winter, and they too have an injured starter that needs replacing. The club announced Monday that veteran right-hander Brandon McCarthy needs Tommy John surgery, and is done for the year.

Because the Dodgers are even shorter on in-house options than the Cardinals, what Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register says here makes perfect sense:

The Dodgers are indeed a legit threat to land Hamels. This is yet another championship-or-bust season for them, and they have more than enough money to afford him. According to Baseball America, they also have the No. 3 farm system in the league to entice the Phillies with.

But the Boston Red Sox might be able to beat the Dodgers to the punch if they deem their need for Hamels strong enough. And the way things are going, it’s trending in that direction.

The Red Sox don’t have any major injury problems in their starting rotation. Their problem is more that the rotation itself is a problem, as the 5.84 ERA owned by Boston starters is by far the worst in baseball. They’re obliging the many skeptics who claimed the Red Sox rotation was lacking a truly reliable starter.

If the Red Sox decide Hamels can be that guy, they definitely have the means to go get him. They also have a lot of money to throw around, as well as Baseball America’s No. 2-ranked farm system. It’s been reported that the Red Sox won’t part with Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart to land Hamels, but they have plenty of other goodies they can pony up to get him.

The Cardinals, Dodgers and Red Sox were already lurking on the Hamels market before the season even began. Now it’s probably fair to say the three of them are front and center, and that any of the three could decide in the near future that having Hamels is a necessity rather than a luxury.

But they may not be alone there.

The Chicago Cubs were another team linked to Hamels over the winter, and they could still move on him with 2015 shaping up to be a return to form for the franchise. Like the Red Sox, the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox are would-be contenders in need of starting pitching. Justin Verlander fell from grace in 2014 and is now dealing with a nagging arm injury, so don’t rule out the Detroit Tigers as a mystery team in the Hamels sweepstakes.

This is all music to the ears of Amaro. He was criticized during the winter for putting too high a price on Hamels, and warned by some know-it-alls that waiting to deal him during the summer was an unnecessary roll of the dice. But the way things are shaping up, it now looks like there’s a real chance his gamble will pay off.

For now, it’s unlikely anything is imminent. Prospective Hamels suitors and all other teams are still in the beta testing phases of their seasons, so it’s a bit soon for such a massive trade to go down. The Hamels waiting game will probably be resolved in weeks, not days.

But a blockbuster trade should happen eventually. With needs for Hamels’ services arising left and right and in all the right places, this is a scenario that’s seemingly been upgraded from an “if” to a “when.”

Assuming, of course, that Hamels can keep nailing his auditions.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.

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MLB Teams That Need a Complete Rebuild

Sometimes it’s just not working.

It seems that every year we have struggling teams making moves with the future in mind. This year is no different, as there are a handful of squads in need of a complete roster rebuild.

Let’s take a look at a few of those organizations.

 

Cincinnati Reds 

On paper, the Reds are loaded with talent. Headlined by Johnny Cueto and Joey Votto, Cincinnati boasts a roster capable of causing some issues for the favorites in the National League Central. 

Cincinnati’s lack of any semblance of pitching depth will derail any postseason aspirations. 

A big reason for this is Cueto‘s impending departure this winter. The right-hander has recorded a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the past four seasons. Cueto will earn close to $200 million in free agency, a total the Reds aren’t likely to match. 

Homer Bailey and the recently acquired Anthony DeSclafani are under team control for the next few seasons, but the Reds will more than likely be looking to fill three spots in their 2016 rotation. 

Prospects Robert Stephenson, Michael Lorenzen, Raisel Iglesias and Nick Howard all have ability, but there’s no clear cut ace in that group. Stephenson is probably the best of the bunch, but Kiley McDaniel at FanGraphs compares his ceiling to that of Bailey’s. 

Offensively, the Reds are being built around Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton and Devin Mesoraco. Aside from these three, the rest of the lineup should be expendable in the right deal. 

Todd Frazier has turned into a productive major leaguer, but his contract is up after the 2016 season. At 29 and with a big payday coming, Cincinnati should consider shopping Frazier for young pitching. Due to his affordable deal, the 2014 NL All-Star may be the most valuable asset on the roster. 

Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips could also help a contender, but their excessive contracts and diminishing production will make them harder to trade. Phillips is owed roughly $37 million over the next three seasons, while Bruce is pegged to make $24.5 million over the next two years, with a $13 million team option for 2017. 

This Cincinnati roster has reached its peak. With a handful of players that can still help contenders, however, a rebuilding effort may be easier than it seems. 

 

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are currently in a similar situation. 

The Phillies have over $100 million invested in Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon and Carlos Ruiz. When you take into account the fact that the club’s Opening Day payroll was around $147 million, it’s evident that the Phils need a major overhaul. 

The problem with trading these players is the lofty dollar amounts still owed to them over the next few seasons:

Of the players mentioned, Hamels, Utley and Papelbon are the most likely to be moved. 

Hamels remains one of the top left-handers in baseball, despite a slow start in 2015. With the insane contracts being handed to free-agent hurlers, the $23.5 million owed to Hamels over the next four seasons actually looks quite affordable. 

The St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers presumably have the prospects to acquire Hamels, but it remains to be seen if any club will be willing to pay the steep price the Phillies are demanding. 

Utley will be a free agent after the season, but there have been conflicting reports on how receptive he would be to a potential deal. ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that many teams have been told that Utley has no intention of leaving Philly. Olney pondered if Utley’s stance could be changed:

Over the past year, other teams have been told that Chase Utley will not accept a trade out of Philadelphia. But there is some curiosity about whether this will change, in the face of the Phillies’ dim prospects now or in the immediate future. Jimmy Rollins chose to leave, accepting a trade to the Dodgers, and rival evaluators believe Cole Hamels wants out as well.

Last but not least, the $13 million remaining on Papelbon’s deal this season has deterred interested teams. The right-hander told CSN Philly that he would be disappointed not to get traded this season. Papelbon has remained productive and could bolster a team’s bullpen.

By trading Hamels, Utley and Papelbon, the Phillies would surely add to their 21st-ranked farm system

 

Milwaukee Brewers 

The future may look bleak for both the Reds and Phillies, but it’s not nearly as bad as the debacle in Milwaukee.

The Brewers have begun the 2015 season with a 4-16 record. With Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez on the DL, it may be time for the Brew Crew to blow up its current roster.

Milwaukee ranks 19th in Baseball America’s organizational talent rankings, but you won’t find a pitcher until the No. 7 overall prospect. Jimmy Nelson has cracked the major league roster and is impressing to begin the season, but he is the extent of the promising pitching talent. 

What can the Brewers do to bring in additional young arms? It may be unpopular, but parting ways with the talented Gomez would be a start. 

Gomez is under team control through 2016 and owed only $17 million over the next two seasons. That’s a bargain for a player with 27 homers and 74 steals over the last two seasons. Gomez is affordable, under contract and productive. 

Kyle Lohse and Jean Segura are other free-agents-to-be at the end of the season and present some value for interested teams. Lohse has posted a sub-4.00 ERA every season since 2011, while Segura is hitting over .300 to begin the season.

A lack of any pitching depth throughout the organization is a scary truth with which Milwaukee fans are starting to come to grips. It’s a serious issue that needs to be addressed before Milwaukee can return to the playoff picture.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Pablo Sandoval Injury: Updates on Red Sox Star’s Neck and Return

Boston Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval left Monday’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays with neck soreness. He returned to the lineup on Tuesday.

Continue for updates.


Sandoval Returns to Lineup vs. Blue Jays

Tuesday, April 28

Alex Speier of The Boston Globe passed along Boston’s lineup against the Blue Jays, highlighting Sandoval’s return:

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported that Sandoval exited Monday night’s game due to neck soreness. He had gone 2-for-2 with a home run and three RBI before exiting. 

After the 6-5 Red Sox win, Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal provided an update: 

The Red Sox signed Sandoval before the 2015 season with the hope that he would provide power in the middle of the order and solidify the third base spot in the race for an American League East title. He helped the San Francisco Giants win three championships and was the 2012 World Series MVP.

The Associated Press and ESPN.com’s Gordon Edes and Kyle Brasseur (via ESPN.com) noted that Sandoval was seen as the answer to multiple problems before the season started:

Sandoval helps fill a hole in the Red Sox’s lineup for a third baseman and a left-handed bat…The Red Sox hope Pablo Sandoval will give them a significant upgrade at third base, a position at which they struggled mightily in 2013…Last season, Red Sox third basemen ranked 29th in baseball in OPS, with their .580 mark 121 percentage points below the league average of .701.

The Red Sox have versatile infielders such as Brock Holt and Xander Bogaerts. Neither youngster has near the experience that Sandoval does, although both are capable of carrying some of the load on offense. They also boast plenty of proven veterans as well, including David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez.

With World Series aspirations this season, reaching that goal would be more difficult if the three-time champion Sandoval can’t stay healthy during the long season.

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