Kuzul

Justin Upton and Matt Kemp should probably keep their phones nearby. 

The outfielders have been two of the most talked-about players in MLB trade rumors this offseason. One baseball executive simply told Joel Sherman of the New York Post: “Justin Upton will be moved.” As for Kemp, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes that “there is serious interest” in the 30-year-old. 

One attribute that both players have in common is the ability to hit for power—and a lot of it. In 2014, Upton clubbed 29 home runs, while Kemp posted a .606 slugging percentage in the second half of the season. With so few impact bats to be had on the free-agent and trade markets, that kind of pop is extremely valuable. 

While their offensive skill sets are similar, their contract situations couldn’t be more different. The 27-year-old Upton will make $14.5 million next season and is set to become a free agent at the end of the campaign. Meanwhile, Kemp is still owed $107 million through 2019. 

What follows is a rundown of the best potential packages and landing spots for the All-Star outfielders. The list begins with the Settle Mariners because the American League West club has been linked to both bats, per Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports. 

Seattle Mariners

The Targets: Upton and Kemp

It makes a lot of sense that the Mariners would be calling about both of these outfielders. 

Last year, the M’s had the lowest OPS in the AL, and the team was especially weak from the right side of the plate. As for Upton, the Atlanta Braves are looking to land a major haul. Sherman writes that the team is seeking a “higher return” than the Jason Heyward deal. 

In that four-player swap, Atlanta received right-hander Shelby Miller and pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins in exchange for Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden.

Seattle definitely has some talented young arms, with Taijuan Walker and James Paxton right at the top of the list. Parting with either of those starters would be a big risk, as the Mariners would only be guaranteed to have Upton under team control for one season. 

Kemp is under contract for five seasons, but his price tag is significantly higher as a result. Walker and Paxton would once again be logical names to begin the conversation with, but position players would have to be discussed, as well. 

With Hanley Ramirez joining the Boston Red Sox, the Los Angeles Dodgers are in the market for a new shortstop. Seattle has a couple of players who the Dodgers could target in Chris Taylor and Brad Miller. Last year in Triple-A, Taylor checked in with a .328 average and an .894 OPS. 

Houston Astros

The Target: Upton

According to Sherman, the Houston Astros are one of the teams that have “inquired” about Upton. 

Houston certainly has the prospects to make such a deal happen. Carlos Correa headlines the farm system, but the shortstop isn’t going anywhere. MLB.com tabbed the 20-year-old as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball. Aside from Correa, the Astros still have some prominent names to offer up.  

As for pitching prospects, the Astros have Mark Appel, who was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft. Right-handers Mike Foltynewicz and Lance McCullers are two other pitchers who could be part of a potential deal. 

Houston also has some position players who are high-profile trade chips. Outfielder Domingo Santana ranks as the No. 50 prospect on MLB.com’s top 100. Plus, third baseman Colin Moran was the No. 6 overall pick in the 2013 draft. 

If Houston were to part with any of those names, the team would have to feel remarkably confident that it would be able to ink Upton to a contract extension. 

San Diego Padres

The Target: Kemp

The Dodgers and the San Diego Padres have discussed a possible trade involving Kemp, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. 

Rosenthal tweets that the Padres have the pieces to help the Dodgers upgrade either their pitching staff or the catcher’s position. San Diego has the top catching prospect in baseball in Austin Hedges. MLB.com dubs Hedges the “best defensive catcher” in the minors and ranks him as the No. 22 prospect on the top-100 list. 

The NL West team also has a number of starting pitchers who could interest the Dodgers. According to Corey Brock of MLB.com, Ian Kennedy is the most available arm. Brock adds that the Padres would be “reluctant” to part with Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross. 

After Kemp posted a .971 OPS in the second half of 2014, San Diego would have to put together a highly compelling offer to pry Kemp away from its northern neighbor. 

Texas Rangers

The Target: Upton

The Texas Rangers have checked in on the availability of Upton, as Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com reports. When it comes to potential trade pieces, the Texas Rangers are loaded at the middle infield spots, as general manager Jon Daniels explained, via Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. 

“It’s not a secret that we have depth there,” Daniels said. “It’s an area of strength for us. We’ve talked about the possibility for a while. We just have to decide if now is the time to make a move there.”

Of course, the Braves already have a Gold Glover at shortstop in Andrelton Simmons. As a result, adding another middle infielder isn’t exactly a top priority for the club. However, the Rangers do have one infield prospect who would draw the interest of every team in baseball.

Last season, third baseman Joey Gallo connected on 42 home runs while splitting the year between High-A and Double-A. According to Rosenthal, the 21-year-old likely wouldn’t be “in play” in trade talks. 

Note: All stats courtesy of MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com. 

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Seattle Mariners need a cleanup hitter. What position that hitter plays remains to be seen. The club was reportedly interested in shortstop Hanley Ramirez, but it lost out on the former Dodger when he signed with the Red Sox.

With Pablo Sandoval and Yasmany Tomas also off the board, the number of chairs is dwindling. The music isn’t close to ending, but the M’s list of potential targets is shrinking.

Seattle’s need for a middle-of-the-order bat happily coincides with the team’s need for a corner outfielder. The corner outfield spots are generally regarded as traditional power positions (and luckily for the M’s there are numerous possibilities).

Matt Kemp’s name has been trade-rumor fodder for months—if not the last year—due to a hefty contract, a slight decline in play and an overcrowded Dodger outfield.

Another trade option is Atlanta outfielder Justin Upton. The former Diamondback reportedly removed the M’s from his no-trade list, and Atlanta could be open to trading its star outfielder after sending Jason Heyward to St. Louis.

Seattle previously attempted to acquire Upton while he was in Arizona, but the outfielder vetoed a deal that would have involved Taijuan Walker and Nick Franklin (among others), per Larry Stone of The Seattle Times.

Like Kemp, Boston outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is part of an overcrowded outfield and could conceivably be dealt.

Should one of those three (or another trade target of their ilk) be acquired, he won’t come cheap. Each one of the three previously mentioned players comes from a team with specific needs.

Matt Kemp

Any trade conversation between the M’s and Dodgers must start with Los Angeles eating a majority of Kemp’s salary. While still a productive player, Kemp is not the player he was in 2011 when he finished runner-up in the MVP voting. The outfielder hit a good-but-not-great .287 last season.

As mentioned, the Dodgers lost Hanley Ramirez to Boston and thus are without a shortstop. The Mariners have two of these in youngsters Brad Miller and Chris Taylor. It’s unclear if Los Angeles would be interested in either. Surely it has a need at the position, but the two have only played in a combined 246 games. That kind of experience at a crucial position isn’t ideal for a team with major championship aspirations.

Los Angeles’ other glaring need is that of a starting pitcher. Former Colorado swing-man Juan Nicasio is slated to be the fifth starter in a rotation that features, among others, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Nicasio posted a 5.38 ERA in 33 appearances (14 of which were starts) for Colorado in 2014. His career ERA is a smidgen smaller at 5.03.

Unless Nicasio posts improved numbers, the team will need better quality and pitching.

Seattle has plenty of intriguing prospects in its system, such as Tyler Pike and Danny Hultzen. However, with the Dodgers in need of pitching now, Roenis Elias could be in play. The rookie starter made the jump to the majors in 2014 and put up 10 wins and a 3.85 in 29 starts.

A package of Miller and Elias for Kemp and a lower-level prospect could get the deal done. The Dodgers will have to eat a good portion of Kemp’s salary in the swap, but the acquisition of two young players like Miller and Elias would probably mean the inclusion of a minor prospect on Los Angles’ part to even things out.

Justin Upton

While similar in terms of what they could provide the Mariners with, Upton and Kemp are very different in other areas—mainly age and salary. Upton is 27 to Kemp’s 30. In addition, Upton’s contract expires after 2015, while Kemp’s runs through 2019.

Judging by Upton’s comparatively favorable numbers—and the high price the Cardinals paid to acquire Jason Heyward—it certainly wouldn’t be surprising if the M’s had to pay a high price for Upton.

While not the same player he was when the M’s attempted to acquire him previously, Upton is still a player who can provide 30 home runs, 100 runs driven in and passable defense in the outfield.

Upton vetoed a previous deal to Seattle in which the Mariners would have parted with Nick Franklin, Charlie Furbush, Stephen Pryor and one of Taijuan Walker, James Paxton or Danny Hultzen.

The Mariners won’t have to give up nearly as much to acquire Upton this time around, but they’ll likely have to part with something of value.

The Braves, like the Dodgers, could use starting pitching. Even after acquiring Shelby Miller in the Heyward swap, the team could use extra starters. Aaron Harang and Ervin Santana could leave in free agency (and Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy are recovering from Tommy John surgery).

To acquire Upton, one of either James Paxton or Taijuan Walker is likely forfeit. Losing either of the two would hurt, but given the strength of the M’s pitching and dire need of a cleanup hitter, they could weather the loss.

Atlanta will also be in the market for a new outfielder if the team deals Upton, especially after dealing fellow outfielder Heyward for two pitchers. The M’s could offer Dustin Ackley or Michael Saunders in return. Saunders is rumored to be on the trade block.

In addition, Brad Miller could be used as additional trade bait. Atlanta could play him at second—until top prospect Jose Peraza is ready—and then slide Miller to third base long-term to take over for the aging Chris Johnson.

Upton will hit free agency after 2015, but the fact that he took the Mariners off of his trade list (which was the catching point in the 2013 deal not coming to fruition) suggests he’d be willing to play for the team. Should the M’s make the playoffs and/or make a deep run in 2015, Upton may be more inclined to stay than bolt when his contract expires.

Yoenis Cespedes

Thanks to a bevy of roster moves, Cespedes finds himself in an overcrowded Red Sox outfield that also features Rusney Castillo, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brock Holt, Daniel Nava, Allen Craig and Shane Victorino.

The same quality depth cannot be found in the Red Sox’s rotation. Clay Buchholz is the veteran presence and ace. Meanwhile, spots two through five will be filled by some combination of Joe Kelly, Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Anthony Ranaudo and Brandon Workman.

Because of this, one of Seattle’s starting pitchers will surely be involved in any potential trade. A straight swap of Walker or Paxton for Cespedes is plausible, but Cespedes has his warts and, like Upton, is a free agent after 2015.

Cespedes can hit for power—that much is certain—but he is far less of a complete player than someone like Upton or even Kemp. In any deal, Seattle’s brass has to accept the fact that Cespedes has warts—Cespedes’ OPS in 2014 was .751, just above Logan Morrison’s .735 number.

The former Athletics slugger’s numbers don’t suggest he is a player who commands a massive return, but given Boston’s depth in the outfield and its need of starting pitching, the Red Sox won’t just give him away. They’ll want the max return for their power-hitting outfielder.

He may not be the most hand-in-glove fit for the M’s, but Cespedes would cost one of Walker, Paxton or Hisashi Iwakuma. Losing any of the three would be a massive loss for Seattle, but that would likely be the cost of trading.

Whether it is Matt Kemp, Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes, the Mariners will be losing some valuable assets via trade. It’s the sad reality of the situation, but another reality is that if the M’s want to make a run in the playoffs in 2015, they’ll need a cleanup hitter.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It is Thanksgiving, which means the holiday season is in full swing.

With Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez both going to Boston and a few other free agents already signed, it is clear that baseball’s offseason is well underway as well. Rumors are swirling and whispers are making their way across the league about which teams are after certain players.

However, one team has been unusually quiet: the New York Yankees.

It has been two seasons since the Yanks made the playoffs, and their roster is in serious need of some help, so you know that New York is bound to have an eventful winter. The question is, who are they going to get and when?

Keeping in mind that there is still plenty of time left in the baseball offseason, take a look at how likely it is the Yankees land a few guys they could really use.

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Risk versus reward.

My definition of “value” is based on two simple things: what will a player cost your team versus what will the player provide on the field.

Some players may be injury-prone or coming off a bad season, while others haven’t been good in a few years, but what all of these players have in common is upside with minimal risk. Think along the lines of Nelson Cruz’s one-year, $8 million deal the Orioles signed him to last offseason as opposed to the Shin-Soo Choo seven-year, $130 million deal. Cruz had a checkered past, but the potential value was always there.

It’s often the value deals that create championship teams. Just ask the Giants and these two moves that helped secure a couple of World Series heroes. Max Scherzer and Pablo Sandoval may be the cream of the crop in terms of production, but in terms of potential value, the players on this list will dwarf their deals.

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We are just a month into the 2014-15 MLB offseason, but there have already been a number of significant signings around the league, as the free-agent market has developed quicker than in years past.

The position player market in particular has been busy, as Russell Martin, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Yasmany Tomas, Adam LaRoche and Michael Cuddyer have all found new homes, while Victor Martinez re-signed with the Detroit Tigers.

The pitching side of things is still waiting on the first big chip to fall, likely Jon Lester, before the market really lines up for the rest of the available arms.

There is undoubtedly still a lot to be sorted out between now and Opening Day, but with so much action over the past few weeks, this seemed like an appropriate time for an updated look at the league in power-rankings form.

While the last version of MLB power rankings we put out was a wrap-up of the 2014 season and reflected how each team performed this past year, the rankings that follow turn an eye to the upcoming 2015 season.

As a result, teams are ranked as if the season were to start today with the rosters they currently have.

So while the Boston Red Sox made a pair of splash signings on the offensive side of things, they still didn’t shoot up the rankings because of the significant questions in their starting rotation.

A team like the Chicago Cubs that is expected to make a significant addition or two was not ranked based on what the roster could potentially look like, but on what it looks like right now.

Expect plenty of shuffling in these rankings between now and Opening Day, as more free agents find new homes and more blockbuster trades are made, but here is a look at how all 30 teams stack up at this very moment.

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Major League Baseball’s offseason isn’t yet a month old, and teams have already spent upward of $400 million combined in free agency, a majority of which came from the Boston Red Sox’s same-day splurge on top position players Hanley Ramirez ($88 million for four years) and Pablo Sandoval ($95 million over five).

For context, the free-agent spending last winter, according to ESPN, checked in at a whopping total $1,861,775,000—that’s nearly two billion—an increase from the $1,335,525,000 burned the year prior.

That’s more than a $500 million jump, if you’re counting along at home with your abacus.

This is only counting dollars spent in free agency, an increasingly expensive nexus where the ever-growing demand continues to reign over the always-shrinking supply. 

In part, this is the case because baseball’s finances are exploding thanks to massive national and regional television deals, thus pumping more money into the mix. At the same time, teams are locking up their own young players with long-term extensions more often, thus diluting the pool of players available in free agency every year.

That’s how someone like Russell Martin, a fine all-around player with a skill set that includes above-average defense and on-base ability on offense—but more importantly, the lone definitive starting catcher available on the open market this offseason—can score a five-year, $82 million contract despite entering his age-32 season a year removed from hitting .211.

“There aren’t as many quality, younger free agents out there,” an unnamed baseball executive said in early November, via Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. “Teams are keeping their guys, signing them to extensions. The numbers to choose from are less and less, so free agency is not always the answer.”

Broadening the scope to include extensions, it’s also how a superstar like Giancarlo Stanton, in the prime of his career at age 25, can find himself signing a record-setting, 13-year, $325 million pact with a Miami Marlins team that ranked dead last in team payroll in 2014.

Or how Kyle Seager, the very good but little-known Seattle Mariners third baseman, can put his John Hancock on an extension that will pay him $100 million over the next seven years. Ask the casual baseball fan if Seager is worth a nine-figure contract, and the answer is liable to be: “Kyle who?”

All of which should make it pretty obvious that the international free-agent market remains one of the few areas (along with the draft) where teams can find not only good values, but in many cases, actual bargains.

Take a look at these “big-money” deals (at least $30 million in total value) signed by international free agents who have made it to MLB over the past five years:

That reads like an all-star team, doesn’t it? And given the price tags attached to them, these signings look well worth it in most, if not all, cases.

No wonder clubs are willing to throw money at highly regarded foreign players before they have played even a single inning in America. In fact, these expenditures are less costly than those for actual, proven MLB free agents because these players are untested in the majors.

On Nov. 26, that final name, Yasmany Tomas, was added to the above list. The slugging Cuban outfielder agreed to a six-year, $68.5 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.

Yes, that’s a lot of money, and it could backfire if Tomas doesn’t live up to the hype and expectations. But if he does—which is to say, if he performs like most of his recent fellow Cuban predecessors—that has the potential to be yet another steal. At least, relative to the dollars being dished out in non-international free agency.

OK, so the $155 million the New York Yankees paid to pick up Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka last January can’t exactly be called a bargain. Then again, the right-hander was available at the age of 25 and did look like one of the very best pitchers in baseball over the first half of his rookie season before an elbow injury sidelined him.

At some point—and soon—even the international market no longer will offer good values, in large part because so many of the players to come from Cuba (Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig, Yoenis Cespedes), Japan (Tanaka, Yu Darvish) and Korea (Hyun-Jin Ryu) in recent years have had immediate impacts and significant success in the majors.

There will come a time when an MLB club will splurge on a supposed-to-be star from a foreign land who disappoints or perhaps doesn’t even reach The Show, and some teams will get wallet-shy as a result.

Maybe that could happen with Tomas. Or perhaps it will be the case for one or both of the other two possible international free agents who are generating a lot of buzz right now: 19-year-old Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada and Kenta Maeda, the 26-year-old Japanese right-hander.

But judging by the recent track record of these players, it’s more likely that this market will get pushed into a territory close to the current MLB free-agent market, where $100 million deals are commonplace and bargains are few and far between.

That wouldn’t be a bad thing for the business of baseball, because big-time players would be getting paid big-time money, no matter where they’re born or where they played professionally before coming to MLB.

But just imagine how much harder it will be for all 30 teams to shop in, let alone find, the “bargain bin” then.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Atlanta Braves have generally focused more on trades and building from within the organization over recent years.

However, with the Braves trading Jason Heyward and actively shopping Justin Upton—as reported by the New York Post’s Joel Sherman—they could open up some payroll to get players in the free-agent market.

Currently, the Braves’ top two targets in free agency are pitcher Jon Lester and Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman and Jesse Sanchez.

Lester looks to be a long shot for Atlanta. For the Braves to be serious players, Lester would need to take a serious hometown discount.

The Braves seemed to be pushing for Tomas, but he signed a six-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday.

If the Braves miss out on one or both, they will turn their attention to backup options.

Here’s a look at some of those backup options in free agency.

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For some baseball fans, the most exciting part of the game has absolutely nothing to do with how things unfold on the field. It’s the offseason, chock-full of rumors, speculation and “what if’ scenarios, that gets their hearts racing and works them into a frenzy.

You can’t really blame them, for there’s only one hot-stove league—and it’s almost always a perfect mix of excitement and entertainment.

While we’ve seen some big names change teams already—Jason Heyward, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval the most notable—we’ve only scratched the surface when it comes to player movement in America’s pastime this winter.

The rumor mill is spinning furiously, and separating the truth from the tall tales is becoming increasingly difficult with each passing hour, much less day. What better time for us to play one of our favorite games, “Fact or Fiction”?

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By now, every MLB fan knows that the Boston Red Sox are going for broke. And we all know that the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants have been linked in some way to just about every big name on the open market.

What about teams that may not have pockets quite as deep? What about those clubs best described as sleepers when put into the context of being big players on the free-agent market?

Well, let’s take a look at three such franchises.

To be clear, we will stay away from clubs like the Chicago White Sox. They have already signed two of the top 31 free agents based on fWAR (FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement) in the form of Adam LaRoche and Zach Duke. It’s safe to say they’ve already made a splash.

We’ll also steer clear of teams like the Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees. They are expected to make multiple moves this offseason and have significant financial resources.

And for those of you wondering about the Arizona Diamondbacks, well, you can forget about them being included. After all, they just inked Yasmany Tomas to a six-year, $68.5 million deal, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. True, general manager Dave Stewart likely isn’t finished, but that splash is about as big as they come.

Here are three MLB sleeper teams presented in alphabetical order that could surprise everyone and make a huge splash this winter.

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It’s early yet, but so far this offseason, the Baltimore Orioles sure are acting like a team that just went 96-66 and won the American League East by a dozen games. You’d expect a team like that to play it cool, and that’s what the Orioles are doing.

The longer they keep it up, however, the more likely they’ll regret it. Rather than playing it cool, what general manager Dan Duquette should be doing is playing keep-up.

Yeah, I know. Part of me is aware that there’s an element of pointlessness involved in wagging one’s finger at the Orioles these days. If they’re doing something that doesn’t seem to make sense, it oftentimes ends up making sense.

And yeah, I’m also aware it might sound like I’m preaching to the choir. After all, it was just last month that Duquette assured Baltimore fans the club isn’t about to get cheap on them after riding a franchise-record payroll to a dominant 2014 season.

“The important thing for our fans to know is that we’ve increased our payroll over the last couple years,” Duquette told Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun. “I expect that we’ll be able to increase our payroll because the fans have responded to our team the last couple of years.”

On the surface, this is a solid promise. You can’t increase payroll without making moves, right? 

In most cases, yes. But in the case of the Orioles? Not necessarily.

Earlier this month, MLB Trade Rumors released its spending projections for 2015 based on committed dollars and projected arbitration payouts. Since the Orioles were projected for nearly $109 million, they could do nothing the rest of the offseason and still top last year’s $107.5 million Opening Day payroll.

Here’s hoping that’s not their plan. Because the way things are looking in Baltimore and elsewhere in the AL East, doing nothing isn’t going to cut it.

When the Orioles look around the AL East, it’s not all bad.

The Tampa Bay Rays are a fading power, as they’ve lost their ace, their general manager and their manager within a span of a couple months. The New York Yankees, meanwhile, are an old and feeble team that might be serious about avoiding the top names on the free-agent market.

The Toronto Blue Jays clearly mean business, though. They just gave Russell Martin an $82 million contract, thereby giving their already dangerous lineup another quality bat and their pitching staff one of the game’s best pitch-framers.

Then there’s the Boston Red Sox, who have made a promising lineup into a lethal lineup with the additions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. They still need a lot of starting pitching, but they have more than enough money and trade assets for the task.

Knowing that the Blue Jays just finished 14 games back in the AL East and that the Red Sox finished a staggering 56 games back, it may be tempting to downplay them as threats to the Orioles.

But as things stand now, they are. While they’ve been busy upgrading, the Orioles have been busy staring a couple of serious downgrades in the face.

If the Orioles lose lefty reliever Andrew Miller to free agency, they’ll be losing a guy whose 1.35 ERA in 23 appearances following a July trade really allowed their bullpen to take off. 

If the Orioles lose right fielder Nick Markakis to free agency, they’ll be losing a guy who posted a solid .339 OBP out of the leadoff spot while playing characteristically solid defense in right field.

If the Orioles lose Nelson Cruz, they’ll be losing a guy who provided the middle of their lineup with an .859 OPS and 40 dingers, the most of anybody in the majors.

As of now, there’s a chance the Orioles will lose all three. Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun says they aren’t even negotiating with Miller. Markakis and Cruz still seem to be in play, but Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun has a point in thinking Boston’s recent splurges could make re-signing them difficult:

Cruz was in Baltimore on a one-year deal in 2014, while the team paid a $2 million buyout to Markakis but still hope to re-sign him this offseason.

They might have more company in that category now. Teams who don’t want to pay an ace’s ransom to Boston for someone like [Yoenis] Cespedes can surrender a draft pick and sign Cruz, or sign Markakis at no amateur cost.

Could the Orioles withstand the losses of their three big free agents and still be a quality team?

Possibly, but probably not. Some parts of the whole—most notably center fielder Adam Jones and shortstop J.J. Hardy—would be fine, but the Orioles would be rolling the dice elsewhere.

Third baseman Manny Machado and catcher Matt Wieters will both be coming off serious injuries in 2015. First baseman Chris Davis will be coming off both a suspension and a major regression, while righty-swinging utility man Steve Pearce will be a candidate for a major regression.

As for the Orioles bullpen, that it was already pretty good before Miller arrived means it might be able to survive his loss without too much of a fuss. But it could have to make do with less help from Baltimore’s starting rotation.

There’s one measure that suggests the Orioles rotation’s 2014 ERA was half a run lower than it should have been, making it easily the top regression candidate among AL starting rotations:

So far, the moves Duquette has made this winter have merely augmented the Orioles’ organizational depth. In light of the movement around them in the AL East and the combination of holes and question marks on the big club’s roster, Duquette could go a long way toward bolstering Baltimore’s status as the top dog in the AL East by having loftier aspirations for his offseason dealings.

One solution would be to bite a couple of big bullets and re-sign both Cruz and Markakis, thereby keeping intact one of the game’s top offenses from 2014. Then, Duquette could find a couple of bargain buys for his bullpen and rotation or perhaps a swingman who could help in both departments.

Or Duquette could go really big. Rather than simply keeping the band together and searching for bargain buys, he could cast a wide net and look to solve all the team’s needs with big-ticket acquisitions.

Rather than re-sign Cruz, for example, Duquette could get involved in the trade market for right-handed power bats. Between Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, Yoenis Cespedes and, now that the Arizona Diamondbacks have Yasmany Tomas, possibly Mark Trumbo, there are quite a few to choose from.

For right field, an alternative to Markakis could be Nori Aoki, who could offer a contact habit and defense just as strong as Markakis‘ for potentially less money. Or Duquette could call the Los Angeles Dodgers and try to interest them in a swap of Andre Ethier’s bad contract for Ubaldo Jimenez’s bad contract. 

For Baltimore’s rotation, Brandon McCarthy and Jason Hammel are among the value buys available. Or playing off a report from Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Orioles could test how interested the Marlins are in Chris Davis by demanding one of their talented young hurlers.

All of this encompasses an approach that’s essentially the polar opposite of the approach Duquette is currently taking to the offseason. And while it’s on your mind, yes, the main argument against the idea is that it would require the Orioles to spend quite a bit of money.

But if ever there was a time for them to do so, it’s now.

There’s more to it than just the competitive reasons we’ve already discussed. The Orioles just drew over 30,000 people per game at Orioles Park at Camden Yards, their best attendance showing in a decade. That’s one solid revenue base, with another being MLB’s still-new national TV money.

And if you’re worried about the Orioles getting themselves locked in a long-term mess, don’t. As Cot’s Baseball Contracts shows, they’re only on the hook for a couple of long-term contracts and only one of them (Adam Jones) is guaranteed past 2017.

What the Orioles have built in recent years is something special. But right now, there are cracks in the foundation and the wolves are at the door. To keep the whole thing standing will require a major effort.

If the Orioles want their return to the top of the AL East to last, it’s an effort they’ll realize is worth making.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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